Morning Call - Feb 6 2008

Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Nifty at a supp of 5431 and 5391 with resis at 5510 and 5570

Cash: Sell Tatamotor below 755 with a TGT of 720 and a SL of 763

Sell SAIL below 233 with a TGT of 222 and a SL of 235.50

F&O: Sell ACC below 774 with a TGT of 755 and a SL of 781

Sell CANBANK below 315 with a TGT of 300 and a SL of 321






Out House :

Markets at a support of 18118 & 17786 levels with resistance at 18686 & 18786 levels .

Buy : RIL at dips

Buy : INFY at dips

Buy : SBIN at dips

Buy : JPASSO at dips

Buy : IBullsReal

Buy : SKumar & Aban at dips

Buy : Geship

Buy : BajaHind & Balrampur

Buy : JSW & Sail at dips

Dark Horse : Sail , IBullreal ,Geship , Aban , , RIL , Sbin , & ITC

Domestic bourses may track weak global equities

The market is likely to edge lower as Asian markets tumbled after another recessionary piece of US economic data sent Wall Street shares down nearly 3% on Tuesday, 5 February 2008.

Strong domestic liquidity may cap the downside. Liquidity may get a boost from huge refunds that investors are getting from Reliance Power IPO though it remains to be seen how much money comes to secondary market in the light of immense volatility witnessed on the bourses last month. Reliance Power, which raised a record $3 billion in its initial share sale in January 2008, said on Friday, 1 February 2008, it had begun refunding excess application money to investors. The initial public offer had received bids for $190 billion.

It also remains to be seen if the strong domestic liquidity will offset selling by FIIs. FIIs sold shares worth a huge Rs 13035.70 crore last month amid ongoing credit crisis in the US and in the backdrop of US recession fears looming large.

As per provisional data, FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 311.78 crore on Tuesday, 5 February 2008. Local funds sold shares worth a net Rs 135.16 crore on that day.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 62.24 crore in the futures & options segment on Tuesday, 5 February 2008. According to data released by the NSE, FIIs were net buyers of index futures to the tune of Rs 139.06 crore and bought index options worth Rs 276.26 crore. They were net sellers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 344.24 crore and sold stock options worth Rs 8.84 crore.

Even if the US goes into the recession, it may not impact India’s economic growth in a big way given that domestic demand is a key driver of the Indian economy. India’s economy is expected to post strong growth for a long period due to favourable demographics. Moreover a healthy investment cycle will continue to support India’s growth through a self-perpetuating cycle of income creation, savings and investment.

Corporate earnings growth remains decent. Deutsche Bank expects 20% compounded annual growth rate in earnings of 30-Sensex firms during the period from FY 2007 (year ended 31 March 2007) to FY 2009 (year ending 31 March 2009).

In Asia, key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore were down by between 3.5% to 5.6%. US stocks suffered their biggest drop in nearly a year on Tuesday, 5 February 2008, after data showed the worst monthly contraction in the services sector since the last US recession and Standard & Poor's warned it could cut bank credit ratings.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 370.03 points, or 2.93%, at 12,265.13. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 44.18 points, or 3.2%, at 1,336.64. The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 73.28 points, or 3.08% at 2,309.57. The Dow and S&P 500 had their biggest drops since 27 February 2007.

Grey Market - OnMobile Global, EMAAR MGF and more..

Reliance Power 450 160 to 170


Emaar MGF 540 to 630 25 to 30


J. Kumar Infraprojects 110 Discount


Cords Cable Ind. 135 4 to 5


KNR Construction 170 Discount


Onmobile Global 440 15 to 18


Bang Overseas 207 12 to 15


Shriram EPC 290 to 330 Discount


IRB Infrastructure Developers 185 to 220 25 to 30







Wockhardt Hospital 225 to 260 4 to 5


Manjushree Extrusion 45 Discount


Tulsi Extrusions 80 to 85 8 to 10


SVEC Construction 85 to 95 5 to 8

Pre Market Watch - Feb 6 2008

The Indian Market is likely to have a negative opening due to weak cues from the global markets. On Tuesday, the market closed with marginal gains after struggling a lot throughout the trading session. The market opened on a negative note backed by unfavoring cues from the global markets but managed to recover from the initial fall but unable to sustain at higher levels due to profit booking across the counters and finally closed with little gains. A lot of volatility was witnessed during the trading session and the investors took calculated steps in booking their positions. However, the Small Caps and Mid Caps out performed the benchmark indices as most buying was seen from these baskets. The BSE Sensex closed marginally higher by 2.84 points at 18,663.16 while NSE Nifty closed up by 20.4 points at 5,483.90.We expect that the market will remain cautious during the trading session.

On Tuesday, the US market closed in deep red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed lower by 370.03 points at 12,265.13. S&P 500 index dropped by 44.18 points to close at 1,336.64 and NASDAQ fell by 73.28 points to close at 2,309.57

Indian ADRS ended in negative. In technology sector, Infosys fell by 6.65% along with Satyam by 6.46%, Wipro by 6.22%. In banking sector, HDFC bank and ICICI bank dropped by (5.54%) and (4.47%) respectively. MTNL decreased by (5.23%).

The major stock markets in Asia are trading weak. Hang Seng is trading lower by 1327.49 points at 23,481.21 along with Japan''s Nikkei trading down by 567.34 points at 13,178.16 and Singapore Starit Times trading at 2,931.21 down by 107.21 points.

The FIIs on Tuesday stood as net buyer in equity. The gross equity purchased was Rs8,300 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs4,489.30 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was Rs3,810.70 Crore.

Today, Nifty has support at 5,262 and resistance at 5,510 and BSE Sensex has support at 17,706 and resistance at 18,748.

IRB Infrastructure Developers Allotment - Subscription Details

Sr.No.	Category			No. of times of total meant for the category
1	Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)			6.4215
1(a)	Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)
1(b)	Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)
1(c)	Mutual Funds
1(d)	Others
2	Non Institutional Investors			1.5577
2(a)	Corporates
2(b)	Individuals (Other than RIIs)
2(c)	Others
3	Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)			0.9897
3(a)	Cut Off
3(b)	Price Bids
4	Employee Reservation			0.9432
4(a)	Cut Off
4(b)	Price Bids

Tulsi Extrusions Allotment - Subscription Details

Sr.No.	Category			No. of times of total meant for the category
1	Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs)			1.5406
1(a)	Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs)
1(b)	Domestic Financial Institutions(Banks/ Financial Institutions(FIs)/ Insurance Companies)
1(c)	Mutual Funds
1(d)	Others
2	Non Institutional Investors			3.1076
2(a)	Corporates
2(b)	Individuals (Other than RIIs)
2(c)	Others
3	Retail Individual Investors (RIIs)			2.4597
3(a)	Cut Off
3(b)	Price Bids
4	Employee Reservation			1.0673
4(a)	Cut Off
4(b)	Price Bids

Recession almost confirmed - ISM contraction hits US Markets

Dow witnesses its worst day in a year as data shows contraction in business activity

It was just one economic report that dictated all terms in the US Market today, 05 February, 2008. And the report was dismal in nature as it sent clear signals of recession hitting the US economy. The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index showed a contraction in business activity in January, 2008. Led by Financial US Market reacted sharply to this report and all three indices posted huge loss for the day.

The Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a huge loss of 370 points at 12,265.13. The Nasdaq Composite Index, finished lower by 73.28 points at 2,309.57. S&P 500 finished lower by 44.18 points at 1,336.64. All of thirty Dow stocks ended in the red today. American Express, AIG, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase led the team of Dow laggards, all shedding more than 4%.

Early morning, it was reported that, The Institute for Supply Management's index of non-manufacturing plummeted to 41.9 in January, 2008 from 54.4 in December, its largest monthly decline on record. The decline in the index reignited fears that the U.S. economy was in a slowdown. A number below 50 reflects a contraction. Market was expecting a figure of 53 for the month of January.

Recession concerns were further fuelled by the realization that the January report marked the first contraction in the non-manufacturing sector in nearly five years.

Strikingly enough, the dollar shrugged off this report and it ended higher against the rivals as it embraced the news about a slowdown in Europe. For the Dow, today’s loss worst percentage decline for the Dow since February 2007. It was also its worst point drop since August.

The ISM report came on the heels of a drop in employment in January and a much weaker-than-expected estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth.

All Indian ADRs ended in red today, dropping between 4% to 7%. Percentage wise, VSNL, Tata Motors and Infosys Technologies were the hardest hit.

In the after hours trading, a decent earnings report from Dow component Walt Disney offered investors some relief.

Crude prices slipped today as weak economic data fuelled recession concerns and this led to questioning of the demand for crude in coming months. Prices slipped ore than $1.5/barrel. Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for March delivery today closed at $88.81/barrel (lower by $1.66/barrel or 1.8%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are 51% higher than a year ago. Earlier it fell to a low of $87.5/barrel.

Trading volumes showed 1.6 billion shares exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, with declining issues topping gainers by a ratio of 4 to 1. On the Nasdaq, 2.5 billion shares traded, with decliners topping gainers by nearly 4 to 1.

Tomorrow's economic report of focus is the fourth quarter productivity report at 8:30 AM ET. The report provides a measure of labor efficiency growth, which is necessary in offsetting inflationary pressures amid expanding economic activity.

Joel Greenblatt - Investing Quotes

• "Figure out what something is worth and pay a lot less."

• "Again, it is all about valuing businesses and paying a lot less."

• "If I plug my estimates into the Magic Formula, and it comes out cheap, that's good."

Wednesday woes…Silence of the bulls!

After silence, that which comes nearest to expressing the inexpressible is music.

The resilient bulls have now become silent spectators to global cues. The only music bulls can hear is thumping steps of bears marching in. Markets across the world have tanked following the latest carnage on Wall Street. The ripple effect of the global mayhem will be seen in the Indian market today.

US stocks sank overnight after a grim report on the service sector revived fears over an impending recession. A Fed official's negative remarks on the bleak prospects for the US economy added fuel to the fire.

Weakness across global markets will overshadow the positive news on the FII money flows. We expect a gap-down opening and perhaps a weak close as well. Some recovery is not ruled out if global markets start looking up again. Long term investors, silently add sound stocks.

Foreign funds are showing some signs of coming back into the Indian market after beating a hasty retreat during last month's global meltdown. FIIs were net buyers of Rs3.12bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Tuesday. In the F&O segment too, they were net buyers of Rs622.4bn. On Monday, foreign funds poured in Rs38.1bn in the cash segment after being net buyers of Rs10.34bn on Friday.

Also, a financial daily reports that the government may allow overseas investors to enter the Indian market through third-party sub-accounts. The move - if it sees the light of day - could make life easier for unregistered foreign investors to invest in Indian shares.

Avoid trading in such a highly volatile and uncertain market as the mess in the US and other advanced economies is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. And, the longer it lasts, the worse it is for global markets.

Meanwhile, Domestic Institutions were net sellers of Rs1.35bn in the cash segment yesterday. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs8.19bn in the cash segment on Monday.

In Asia this morning, stock indices in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore got pounded following the steep losses in their US counterparts. The Nikkei in Japan was down 567 points at 13,178 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong tumbled 1433 points at 23,375 and the Straits Times in Singapore was down 110 points at 2927.

MSCI's Asian benchmark slipped 2.1% to 143.98 as of 10:44 a.m. in Tokyo, set for its steepest drop since Jan. 28. All of its 10 industry groups declined.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 2.4 percent in Australia, where Macquarie Group was poised for its biggest decline in two weeks following the retirement of its chief executive. Markets in China, South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand are closed for holidays today, while Hong Kong and Singapore will shut after morning trading.

US stocks tumbled the most in 11 months after service industries contracted at the fastest pace since 2001, reinforcing concern that the world's biggest economy may already be in a recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its biggest drop in nearly a year.

Exxon Mobil and GE led declines and all 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 declined after the Institute for Supply Management's index, which reflects almost 90% of the US economy, fell more than forecast. Citigroup led 91 of 92 financial shares in the S&P 500 lower after Fitch Ratings said it may downgrade the AAA insurance rating on MBIA Inc., the largest bond guarantor.

The S&P 500 lost 44.18 points, or 3.2%, to 1,336.64. The Dow slumped 370.03 points, or 2.9%, to 12,265.13. The Nasdaq Composite dived 73.28 points, or 3.1%, to 2,309.57. Almost 11 stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

The ISM Service Sector report was released nearly an hour ahead of schedule, unnerving investors at the start of trade. The report countered last week's ISM reading on the manufacturing sector, which showed an expansion.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said that the report raises the risks of a recession. However, he said that inflationary pressures are also rising, which could limit further interest rate cuts. Lacker is an alternate member of the Fed's policy committee this year.

Treasury prices rallied, as investors sought safety in government debt, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.56% from 3.64% late on Monday. In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the yen and the euro.

US light crude oil for March delivery fell $1.61 to $88.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for April delivery plunged $19.10 to $890.30 an ounce.

After the close, Walt Disney reported lower quarterly earnings and higher revenue, both of which topped analysts' forecasts. Shares jumped more than 5% after the close. Companies due to report quarterly results on Wednesday morning include Sara Lee, and Time Warner.

European shares wiped out all of February's tentative gains after the dismal data on the US services sector dealt another blow to already fragile sentiment. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 3.2% to 318.73. The index fell below its February open of 322.92. The French CAC-40 index fell 4% to 4,776.86, while the UK's FTSE 100 index closed down 2.6% at 5,568.00, and the German DAX 30 index lost 3.4% at 6,765.25.

Europe's service industries grew at the slowest pace in more than four years and retail sales dropped the most since 1995 after stock markets slumped, the US economy faltered and inflation accelerated. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said its purchasing managers' index (PMI) for services dropped to 50.6, the lowest since July 2003, from 53.1 in December. A reading above 50 indicates growth.

Retail sales in the euro region declined 2% from a year earlier, a record, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said yesterday. The weak data counters the view of European Central Bank (ECB) policy makers who say that the euro region is strong enough to cope with a cooling US economy. The ECB says that faster inflation prevents it from following the Federal Reserve in cutting rates aggressively.

The scene was equally bad across the emerging markets. The IPC index in Mexico was down 4.5% at 28,086 while the RTS index in Russia fell 2.3% to 1966 and the ISE National-30 index in Turkey was down 3.5% at 55,291.

Market likely to be choppy

After a strong fight on Monday bulls again showed strength towards the end on Tuesday as markets managed to end with marginal gains for third straight trading session. After opening in red markets turned choppy and lackluster and witnessed range bound trades. However, towards the fag end markets slightly gained momentum led by gains in the index heavyweights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, L&T and Bharti Airtel. Finally, the 30-share Sensex ended flat at 18,663. The NSE Nifty gained 20 points to close at 5,473.

KEC International was down 2% to Rs729. Reports stated that the company formed a 50:50 joint venture with Power Engineers and floated a new firm - KEC Power. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs745 and a low of Rs675 and recorded volumes of over 5,000 shares on NSE.

Voltas slipped 1% to Rs203. Reports stated that the company is likely to bag a large overseas order worth Rs6-8bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs211 and a low of Rs201 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on NSE.

Dewan Housing was locked at 5% upper circuit to Rs219.10 after the company declared that it plans to raise stake in Wadhawan Food-Retail. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs219.10 and a low of Rs214 and recorded volumes of over 45,000 shares on NSE.

Engineers India was up by 1% to Rs882 after the company announced that it would form a 50:50 joint venture with Tata Projects. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs897 and a low of Rs845 and recorded volumes of over 9,000 shares on NSE.

Parsvnath surged by over 3% to Rs296 as Parsvnath Hotels, a subsidiary of Parsvnath Developers, has signed a MoU with ITC’s Fortune Park Hotels to develop and manage 20 five-star, 20 four-star and 10 three-star and budget hotels across the country in five years. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs300 and a low of Rs284 and recorded volumes of over 19,00,000 shares on NSE.

After being the star performer on Monday, Rcom slightly cooled off and slipped 1.3% to Rs677. Reports stated that Reliance Infratel, the tower subsidiary of the company, proposed to raise Rs60bn through an IPO and has filed the DRHP with the SEBI. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs704 and a low of Rs664 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,00,000 shares on NSE.

Essar Shipping was locked at 5% upper circuit to Rs228.65 after the company announced that they would be raising ~US$1bn through a mix of equity and quasi-equity instruments. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs228.65 and a low of Rs215 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on NSE.

GBN gained 2% to Rs1011 after the company announced that they have planned to raise Rs6bn via QIP. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1034 and a low of Rs990 and recorded volumes of over 24,000 shares on NSE.

L&T gained 1.1% to Rs3856 after media reports stated that L&T has emerged the highest bidder for Navi Mumbai Sea wood project the company has bid Rs1,850cr for the project. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs3876 and a low of Rs3760 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.

News Snippets:

HCL Tech is close to clinching a US$1bn outsourcing contract from a European telecommunications company. (BS)
Hero Group is in negotiations with French car major PSA Peugeot for a possible alliance for passenger cars. (ET)
Tata Power Company’s JV, Maithon power, has raised Rs31.2bn in debt to finance its 1,050MW power project. (ET)
JSW Steel’s steel production in January grew by 13% to 0.29 mn tones. (FE)
Canara Bank, Corporation Bank and Allahabad Bank have decided to lower interest rates on housing loans. (BS)
L&T expects sales to reach US$2bn in the Gulf region in the next two years. (BS)
Reliance Communications to test-launch its DTH services, Big TV, this week. (BS)
BPCL owned Bharat Oman Refineries is likely to come with an IPO next financial year. (DNA)
Maruti Suzuki denies low-cost small car plans. (ET)
BPCL, Nandan Bio and Shapoorji Pallonji to form JV for producing bio-diesel in UP. (FE)
GMR Infra to de-link its real estate project from the Delhi-airport upgrade plan. (BS)
GMR Infra plans to bid for modernization of Prague airport. (DNA)
Indiabulls Real Estate is planning a US$1.2bn IPO for its property trust on the Singapore stock exchange. (BS)
Suzlon's Australian unit wins an order for supplying 27 wind turbines. (DNA)
Crisil, Equifax and Tata Capital to set up a credit information company providing credit histories and checks on retail borrowers. (BS)
UB Group is planning to foray into development of luxury retail stores. (FE)
Petronet LNG awards US$250mn contract to a Japanese group for building two LNG gas storage tanks at Kochi. (BS)
Mercator Lines is planning to expand its business portfolio with an investment of around Rs60bn over next few years. (FE)
Aurbindo Pharma gets nod from US FDA for generic version of Fluoxetine. (BS)
Maytas Infra sells minority equity to Infinite India Investments for Rs6bn. (ET)
Godrej eying 10% market share in the AC market by next year by launching 25 models. (BS)
HDIL gets development rights of Bombay Oxygen Corporation’s land in Mulund, Mumbai for Rs2bn. (BS)
GTL enters into a strategic alliance with Ericsson UK for providing managed network infrastructure services in the UK market. (ET)
GTL is close to acquiring a US$200mn European company. (DNA)
Prakash Industries to set-up a 600MW thermal power station in Chattisgarh with an investment of Rs24bn. (BS)
Baja Hindustan to invest Rs2.75bn for setting-up a particle and fibre board unit in western Uttar Pradesh. (DNA)
Subex has bagged a contract from Slovenia-based telecom operator, Telecom Slovenije, to install solutions that will protect from various frauds. (ET)
Port of Singapore picks up 49% stake in ABG’s terminal. (ET)
Concor is looking at strategic alliances/equity JVs with private shipping companies to strengthen its interest in shipping business. (ET)
CEAT is close to finalizing Bhandup land sale deal worth Rs1bn. (DNA)
Engineers India get government’s nod to form a JV company with Tata Projects. (FE)
Prime Focus and Warner Brothers enters into an agreement to provide film makers access to their post-production services. (BS)
Phoenix Mills plans to enter in a strategic alliance with Entertainment World Developers Pvt Ltd by acquiring 42% in the company. (BS)
Aegis Logistics is expanding the capacity of its LPG storage facility in Trombay by about 50,000 kilolitres. (DNA)

Economic Front Page

FM approves the proposed increase in the price of petrol and diesel by Rs2/litre and Re1/litre respectively. (FE)
Trai is set to allow FM radio channels to broadcast news and current affairs. (ET)
Direct tax collections jump 40% to Rs2,185bn in the first ten months of the fiscal. (ET)
FM likely to prod banks to lower interest rates in his February 12 meeting with banks chiefs. (ET)
Steel imports rise 69% to about 5mn tons in the first nine months of the fiscal. (BS)
Cement firms to appeal against MRTPC order of cartelization in Supreme Court. (BS)
Government to soon finalize a plan for the proposed 1,000bn National Electricity Fund aimed at providing support to cash-strapped SEBs. (BS)
Government is considering a proposal to provide a separate exemption limit for long term savings instruments. (FE)

Reliance Power Listing Date

Reliance Power is likely to list on Feb 11 2008

India Strategy - Feb 5 2008

India Strategy - Feb 5 2008

Tata Steel

Tata Steel

Cubex Tubing

Cubex Tubing