Prabhudas Lilladher - Jindal Saw
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Key indices were up nearly 1% buoyed by the firm trend in Asian and U.S. markets amid speculation the US Federal Reserve would leave interest rates unchanged at its meet Wednesday. Oil retailers were top gainers on Nifty, as crude oil prices Friday tumbled below $64 a barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange due to rising US inventories. At 10:30AM, Sensex was 14022.08, up 87.81 points or 0.7%. Nifty was at 4145.55, up 28.50 points or 0.7%. The CNX Midcap Index was up 0.5% and S&P CNX 500 Index was up 0.7%. On BSE, advances led declines 3:1 in the morning session. BPCL and HPCL, up over 3% each, at Rs 287 and Rs 345 respectively, were top Nifty gainers. Reliance Industries, which shed 3% on Friday, was up 2% at Rs 1,614. Reliance Industries will appeal in a day or two against a court order that restrains it from selling gas intended for Reliance Natural Resources, to a third party. Technology shares were major laggards on Nifty amid concern the earnings in the sector would be hit as the rupee has appreciated 9% against the dollar so far this year. Satyam Computer Services, down 1% at Rs 465, was the worst hit on Nifty. Infosys Technologies was down 0.6% at Rs 2,058. ONGC was down 1% at Rs 918. A newspaper report today said the government is considering a proposal to appoint an independent consultant to assess the level of technology employed by the company. Shares of Tech Mahindra were up 1.3% at Rs 1,670.10 ahead of its Jan-Mar earnings to be detailed after markets hours today. Key indices were off highs midway through the session on decline in technology shares. Sensex, Nifty were up 0.3% each compared to 1% earlier in the day. However, gains in index heavyweight Reliance Industries and oil retailers kept indices in positive territory. At around 1.20PM, Sensex was at 13957.67, up 25.42 points. Nifty was at 4129.00, up 11.65 points. Oil retailers were top gainers on Nifty as crude oil eased below $64 a barrel. BPCL and HPCL were up 2.5% each. Technology shares fell, as the rupee remained strong. Satyam Computer Services was down 2% at Rs 462. Shares of Deccan Aviation were down 4.9% at Rs 109 on profit sales, after the recent rally on the back of reports Vijay Mallya promoted-Kingfisher Airlines mulls buyout of low-cost airline Air Deccan. Maruti Udyog was up 0.4% at Rs 810.80 after the company priced its SX4 sedan at Rs 618,000-Rs 724,000. Shares of GSFC fell 6.4% to Rs 169 after it Saturday reported a 50% year-on-year decline in Jan-Mar net profit to Rs 512 mn. Key indices made a firm start today buoyed by firm Asian and U.S. markets but could not hold on to gains and ended down 0.4% on profit sales. Sensex ended at 13879.25, down 55.02 points, or 0.4%, from Friday. It shot up to 14067.07 earlier in the day. Nifty ended at No. of Scrips Value (Crs.) Advances 429 4195 Declines 615 4471 Unchanged 35 6 Total 1079 8672 4111.15, down 6.20 points, or 0.2%. It touched an intraday high of 4157.65. Turnover on both the exchanges was roughly Rs 131.6 bn compared with Rs 136.7 bn Friday. CNX Midcap Index touched an all-time-high of 5,393.15 points. It ended down 0.6% at 5313.65 points. S&P CNX 500 Index ended down 0.3% BSE Oil and Gas Index ended up 1%, the top gainer among BSE sector indices, on rise in buying in oil retailers and index heavyweight Reliance Industries. Oil retailers were top Nifty gainers as crude oil prices fell for the sixth session and the rupee strengthened to a fresh nine-year high against the dollar. A stronger rupee lowers the cost of crude import for oil refiners. BPCL and HPCL ended up 4% each, at Rs 350 and Rs 289, respectively. Reliance Industries ended up 1.5% at Rs 1,607 on value buying after falling 3% in the previous session. Reports that the company will appeal this week against Bombay High Court's order that restrained it from selling gas pledged to Anil Ambani's Reliance Natural Resources offered respite to investors. Patel Engineering gained 6% at Rs 368 and Pratibha Industries rose 5% to Rs 2,219 after a joint venture of the two companies won a Rs 1.57 bn construction order from the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corp. Bosch Chassis Systems India ended up 1% at Rs 986 after it announced a 1-for-1 bonus share issue. Technology shares were major laggards on Nifty as the rupee touched nineyear highs against the dollar. Wipro ended down 3% at Rs 553 and Satyam Computer Services ended down 2% at Rs 461. BSE IT Index, down 1.4%, was the worst hit among BSE indices. PNB, down 3% at Rs 494, was the worst hit on Nifty. It has raised interest rates for home loans above Rs 2 mn by 100 basis points. Maruti Udyog was up ended down 0.3% at Rs 805 on profit sales. The company priced its SX4 sedan at Rs 618,000-Rs 724,000. Hindalco Industries ended down 2% at Rs 145. The company Friday reported Jan- Mar net profit at Rs 7.2 bn, up 15% from a year ago. Hindustan Zinc that rose 3% after it Saturday hiked prices of its primary high-grade products by Rs 6,900 per 1 tn to Rs 180,900, ended down 2% at Rs 723 on profit sales. GSFC fell 7% to Rs 169 after it Saturday reported a 50% YoY decline in Jan-Mar net profit to 512 mn. Tech Mahindra ended down 1.4% at Rs 1,625 ahead of its Jan-Mar earnings to be detailed after markets hours today. Tech stocks ended down with exception. Infosys was down at Rs 2041.85 with volumes of Rs 198.34 crs, TechM was down at Rs 1625.10 with volumes of Rs 196.73 crs, TCS was down at Rs 1272.90 with volumes of Rs 176.93 crs, and Rolta closed up at Rs 474.60 with volumes of Rs 154.06 crs. Pharma stocks witnessed mixed trend. Ranbaxy was up at Rs 391.40 with volumes of Rs 51.90 crs, Dr Reddy closed down at Rs 703.55 with volumes of Rs 36.82 crs, Cipla was down at Rs 214.85 with volumes of Rs 34.83 crs, and Sun Pharma closed up at Rs 1012.50 with volumes of Rs 10.16 crs. Banking stocks showed negative trend with exception. In the Public Sector banks SBI closed down at Rs 1119.65 with volumes Rs 85.26 crs & PNB closed down at Rs 493.75 with volumes Rs 25.64 crs. In the private sector UTI Bank closed up at Rs 506.60 with volume of Rs 235.64 crs & ICICI Bank closed down at Rs 843.75 with volumes of Rs 138.89 crs. Auto Stocks ended down with exception. Tata Motors closed down at Rs 728.30 with volumes of Rs.132.12 crs & M&M closed down at Rs 775.75 with volumes of Rs 27.33 crs. While in the 2 wheeler segment stocks, Baja Auto closed down at Rs 2566.85 with volumes of Rs 27.27 crs & Hero Honda closed up at Rs 706.05 with volumes of Rs 11.49 crs. Cement Stocks witnessed negativity with exception. GACL closed down at Rs 120.10 with volumes of Rs 66.27 crs, India Cement closed down at Rs 183.80 with volumes of Rs 52.44 crs, ACC closed up at Rs 862.25 with volumes of Rs 46.60 crs and Birla Jute closed down at Rs 239.05 with volumes of Rs 1.39 crs. Nifty ended at 4111 down by 6 points.
Reliance Communications President and CEO, Prakash Bajpai says that the Enterprise Business' new scheme of handset at Rs 777 will be an aid to the next level of market penetration. The handset would be available in all sectors - induviduals and SME's.
Rel Comm will invest about USD 2.5 billion in network expansion, while a significant part of it will be invested in broadband expansion. They have a capex plan of USD 3.5 billion for network expansion.
Excerpts from the exclusive interview with Prakash Bajpai :
Q: Could you start of by telling us about the new handset that Relcomm has come out with? What sort of response have you seen and have you built even more on your CDMA market share?
A: These handsets will bring in a never before experience for the customer and the value is tremendous. We worked hard with our manufacturing and technology partners to pack in all the features and cut down the cost so that we can penetrate to the next level of affordability.
This will create the next level of market expansion and also create lot of value for the enterprise business customers as well.
Q: What kind of penetration do you expect the Rs 777 plan to achieve and do tell us about margin picture you expect if this becomes a big success for you because of the kind of cost you would incur and would you be able to hold that 40% plus kind of margin picture?
A: The overall business has been rapidly expanding because the volume is an important part of this matrix and so as you take the value offering whether it is mobile or enterprise broadband solutions. So as you penetrate deeper and serve more customers from one integrated network that we have, there is scope not only to maintain the margins but also grow it continuously. So all of these products, whether they are mobile or broadband solution are part of the solution and value that you are carrying to the market at all times.
Q: Which markets in specific are you focusing this handset? Is it the smaller towns and cities and could you quantify the initial response you have got?
A: It will go to all the segments of the market. When you package solutions like close reserve groups it creates compelling value for businesses as well as individual customers. It will be applicable for urban markets as well as the rural market. These kinds of value products get consumed in all the segments of the market.
Q: What kind of network expansion targets have you set for the next 1-2 years? What are your capex plans?
A: Our Chairman has already given the guidance that there will be approximately USD 2.5 billion investment going into network expansion. This includes the wireless expansion to more towns but at the same time significant portion will also go towards broadband infrastructure expansion.
So in the last couple of years we are focused on the broadband network around the business districts and now it will be expanded to more business districts because the broadband service still has a very poor penetration and therefore there is huge scope of expansion not only of mobile services but for broadband services as well.
Q: At a time when you are about to get quite aggressive on the GSM roll out front, how do you read Bharti’s recent cut in prepaid with their new plan and do you think we are moving to even lower price points in the GSM business going forward?
A: I think the price points are becoming an important part of the value creation and eventually it will be through various tariff plans through various packages and products. What one is trying to do is create a superior and competitive value and it is an ongoing affair and all of us will be partaking in that. So there will be offers and solutions coming from different parts of the industry components.
Q: Is there scope for Reliance Communications as well to drive prices a bit lower?
A: Both the prices or the value will be commensurately matched, so whether you offer more value in the same price or same value in lower price points, you will keep on creating competitiveness in the market.
Q: What sort of revenue growth you expect for the broadband side along with all the capex that you pointed out?
A: In the last year alone itself you have seen that we have more than doubled the business while focusing on the enterprise broadband alone. Our margins have very significantly expanded nearly 6 times and we actually are right now running margins at 45% for the last year. Infact in the last quarter we did around 49% which is the industry leading margin and if you look at the Q4 order booking it was nearly Rs 737 crore which has more than doubled the level of activity that we used to do in the previous years. Now this is partly because the CXOs and the CEOs of the large corporations and the mid-sized companies are increasingly becoming more and more depended on the IT and networking their businesses.
So if you continue to create solutions and provide them high quality services they do create a lot more reliability, quality of services, the SLAs and as we continue to provide them we want to continue to do more of the same, build more networks, connect more buildings and create larger portfolio of our product and services innovation so there is no really limit to. This business has really just begun and it has huge scope of expansion and growth.
Q: At what stage of rollout are your DTH and IPTV plans now and can you set some targets for us there?
A: These are very much in the works right now at the backside. We plan to launch on a nationwide basis of the DTH network by the end of the year and IPTV network will be rolled out atleast in the few metros. At this time there is lot of work going on that and obviously IPTV type of network creates value for the residential customer and gives them a superior TV viewing experience in an interactive and personalized way but you really need to have fibre broadband connected to larger and larger number of buildings.
We are now nearly half a million building connected with the fibre broadband connectivity and we plan to take it to approximately 1.6 million building in the next year and with that we will have a large market which can really take the benefit of such a premium technology.
Reliance Communications for overseas listing of FLAG
Reliance Communication has decided for overseas public offer for its international communication subsidiary FLAG Telecom, for which it has shortlisted four merchant bankers.
Sources said Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and UBS were shortlisted for the process, which would see RCOM divesting 10-15 per cent equity.
FLAG Telecom will be listed on the London Stock Exchange.
FLAG is a 100 per cent subsidiary of Reliance Communication. The proceeds raised from the IPO will be used to part finance expansion plans announced last year, which include laying 50,000 km fresh undersea cable in regions where there is dearth of international bandwidth. The expansion plan could entail an investment of about 1.5 billion dollar (nearly Rs 70 billion).
The company had, in December last year, announced that it would build the world's largest next generation undersea cable network with an investment of USD 1.5 billion (about Rs 7,000 crore) over the next three years.The network Flag Next Generation Network (Flag NGN) spanning 1,15,000 km, will connect 60 countries and five billion people across four continents.
It will be the first network to connect Southeast Asia and second to connect Africa. PTI MST KM 03261245 DEL
Demerger Of Passive Infrastructure Division Reliance Communications And Reliance Telecom Approved By The Bombay High Court
The Hon'ble High Court of Judicature at Bombay approved the Scheme of Arrangement between Reliance Communications Limited (RCOM) and Reliance Telecom Limited (RTL) and Reliance Telecom Infrastructure Limited (RTIL) by way of demerger of the Passive Infrastructure inter alia consisting of the wireless towers (CDMA and GSM) and related infrastructure of RCOM and RTL to RTIL. RTIL is a subsidiary of RCOM.
The demerger of passive infrastructure would benefit the respective companies and the stakeholders on account of:
- Reduced set-up and operating costs resulting in cost efficiency coupled with a greater financial flexibility;
- Segregation of the business of providing telecommunication services and the business of providing the Passive Infrastructure facilities, thereby enabling the companies to concentrate on its core business activities;
- Improved quality of services to its customers by establishing highest service standards through operational agreements; and
- Promote high valued standalone business by conversion of cost-centric assets to revenue-centric ones by sharing of the Passive Infrastructure of the Resulting Company with other wireless service providers operating in the same field.
Reliance Communications Limited (RCOM) is part of the Reliance - Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group. RCOM is India's largest integrated communications service provider in the private sector with over 32 million individual consumer, enterprise, and carrier customers.
We operate pan-India across the full spectrum of wireless, wireline, and long distance, voice, data, and internet communication services. We also have an extensive international presence through the provision of long distance voice, data and internet services and submarine cable network infrastructure globally.
DEMERGER : TOWER BUSINESS
In the recent past, there has been news of telecom companies in India (specially in the private sector) hiving off their tower business by creating separate subsidiaries to accommodate the same. We must ry and gauge the rationale behind the companies doing so, as also the valuation aspect of the same.
" Why to de-merge tower business? "
There are a number of benefits that are linked to this strategic move:
*Asset light business model: *By hiving off of the telecom towers, Cellular Mobile Service Providers (CMSPs) can embrace an asset light model. This will lead to improvement in asset turnover and utilisation ratios.
*Expanding services:* By demerging a non-core business like tower management, CMSPs can be more focused on marketing and branding of their telecom services that could lead to a faster expansion of the subscriber base translating into increased sales.
*Faster expansion of services:* With companies not having to worry about the setting up of towers and their maintenance, there will be a faster roll out services to areas that the companies wish to bring under their coverage. Also they will be spared from the burden and costs associated with the set up and maintenance of these towers as currently these (towers) do not generate any independent revenues for these companies.
*Understanding the tower business*
Currently, there are no major Indian players into the telecom tower management business. As such, we can pick on the US based " American Tower Corporation " to get further details on the working of this business.
The tower management business flows like this.
The CMSP approaches the tower company with its network requirement in terms of the required height of the equipment for transmitting signals and number of antenna locations. This can be called as the coverage goal. Once the requirements are in place, the next step is to locate the tower or rooftop site that best suits the need of the CMSP. This can again be attained with the aid of tools that help to zero in on the site that best fits the coverage requirements. This is followed by a
feasibility study and some other legal and procedural formalities on the satisfactory completion of which the CMSP is successfully able to extend coverage to that area.
Such accelerated coverage is a win-win situation for both the CMSP as also the tower companies. The CMSP can, depending on its financial strength and requirements, launch/extend its services to areas that are currently off-coverage and the telecom tower company is able to leverage its assets better to generate higher return on assets as the incremental costs associated with adding a tenant to a wireless site are minimal.
The companies generate revenue by leasing out the towers and as a result their main source of revenue is on account of lease rentals and management of these towers. While the revenue is recurring in nature owing to the long standing agreements that these companies have with their clients (CMSPs), it is the ability of the company to generate incremental revenues on the towers that matters the most. As stated earlier, the costs associated with adding on an additional customer to the tower are very low and as such their revenues contribute straight to operating profits. However, due to the high depreciation and sales and general expenses, the net profit margins for these companies continue to remain low.
" Financial snapshot of US tower companies "
As telecom tower companies have huge depreciation, as is visible in the large differences between operating and net profit margins in the table above, it would not be feasible to value such companies on a 'price to earnings' multiple. Similarly, the use of 'price to book value' is also not very desirable, as the assets will continue to generate income long after they have been written off. In the given scenario, we believe it would be good to use the 'price to cash earnings' or 'price to sales' ratios for valuing such businesses.
*How does it impact us?*
Many Indian CMSPs have announced to tread a similar path by spinning off their towers into a separate subsidiary that may be listed subsequently on the Indian bourses. While an understanding of the valuations of American tower companies (as enumerated above) will not give a true picture of the kind of valuations that Indian tower companies will command (as a matter of fact, US telecom tower companies currently trade are premium valuations ascompared to telecom companies), it could serve as a good starting point for evaluating the domestic companies in the future – both in terms of financial performance and valuations.
Price target: Rs256
Current market price: Rs215
Price target revised to Rs256
- Cipla reported lower than expected results for Q4FY2007 with a net profit of Rs125.7 crore against the expectation of Rs199.6 crore. The earnings have been lower due to the disappointing exports of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and significant contraction in the operating profit margin (OPM).
- The revenues were marginally higher by 6.3% to Rs938.5 crore. The sales growth was lower due to a 27% decline in the API exports to Rs141.46 crore.
- The OPM witnessed a 590-basis-point decline to 15.7% in the quarter due to the higher contribution of low-margin anti-retrovirals and lower API sales to the regulated markets. Consequently, the operating profit stood at Rs147.0 crore, down by 22.8%. With the 40% fall in other income and the higher tax incidence (up from 4.0% to 11.3%), the net profit declined by 40.3% in the net profit to Rs125.7 crore.
- The FY2007 numbers saw a 19% growth in the top line at Rs3,438.1 crore, the margins remained almost flat at 20% and resulted in a mere 9% rise in the net profit to Rs660.8 crore.
- Cipla reported disappointing numbers for both Q4FY2007 and FY2007, largely due to the lower than expected performance of the export business and the decline in the OPM. Hence, we are revising down our FY2008 earning estimate by 17.4%; we are also introducing our FY2009 estimate. As per our revised estimate, the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY2008 and FY2009 stand at Rs10.9 and Rs12.8 respectively.
- At the current price of Rs215, the stock trades at 19.7x and 16.7x of its FY2008 and FY2009 earnings respectively. Though, we have toned down our estimate, positive earnings surprises for the company at frequent intervals from exports are not ruled out. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs256 (ie 20x of FY2009E EPS of Rs12.8).
WS Industries India
Cluster: Vulture's Pick
Price target: Rs87
Current market price: Rs43
- WS Industries' (WSI) Q4FY2007 results are in line with our expectations.
- The revenues for the quarter grew by 16% to Rs44.8 crore while the net profit grew by 113% to Rs2.2 crore on the back of its high operating leverage and lower depreciation expense.
- The operating profit for the quarter grew by 37% yoy to Rs5.3 crore as the operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 180 basis points to 11.9%. The OPM expanded because of lower power & fuel cost and other operational efficiencies. The power & fuel cost as a percentage of sales declined to 15.5% from 18.4% in Q4FY2006 and the other expenses, as a percentage of sales, dropped to 17.4% from 19.4% in Q4FY2006.
- The interest cost increased by 25.7% while the depreciation cost decreased by 10.6%.
- The order book at the end of March 2007 stood at a healthy Rs200 crore.
- The Q4FY2007 results of WSI are in line with our estimates; the company is having a good order book of Rs200 crore, which is around 1.2x its FY2007 sales and provides good earnings visibility. We have valued WSI using the sum-of-the part (SOTP) valuation method, wherein we have valued WSI's core insulators business at 10x its FY2008E earnings per share (EPS). This gives the fair value Rs58 per share. Further, we have valued WSI's realty subsidiary at the current realisable value of Rs3,500 per square feet. Taking WSI's current 59% stake in the realty venture, we arrive at a value of Rs29 per share. This gives us a fair value of Rs87 per share of WSI.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs374
Current market price: Rs317
Numbers in line with expectations
- Corporation Bank's results are in line with our expectations; the profit after tax (PAT) grew by 18.2% year on year (yoy) but declined 19.1% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs118.5 crore compared with our estimate of Rs116.1crore.
- Adjusted net interest income (NII) was up by 31.2% yoy and 16.1% qoq to Rs387 crore. A moderate loan growth and significant increase in float balances helped the bank to improve its margins by 25 basis points to 3.06% on a sequential basis.
- The non-interest income increased by 14.4% yoy and 13% qoq to Rs180 crore. The core fee income was up 15.9% yoy and 5% qoq.
- With the net income up 25.4% yoy and the operating expenses up only 11.3% yoy, the operating profit was up by 36.4% yoy to Rs345.3 crore. The core operating profit (operating profit less treasury and recovery income) showed a good growth of 36.2% yoy and 29.2% qoq.
- Provisions and contingencies grew by 55.5% yoy and 103.7% qoq due to higher non-performing assets (NPA) and standard asset provisioning during the quarter. The significant increase in the provisions on a sequential basis resulted in a 19.1% sequential decline in the PAT although the operating profit grew by 17.8% qoq.
- The asset quality of the bank continues to be healthy with stable gross NPA at Rs624 crore and the net NPA at 0.47% in percentage terms. The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) remains at a comfortable 12.7% with Tier-I CAR at 11.3%.
- At the current market price of Rs317, the stock is quoting at 7.4x its FY2008E earnings per share (EPS), 3.4x pre-provision profit (PPP) and 1.1x book value. We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs374.
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs44
Current market price: Rs39.5
- Ashok Leyland Ltd (ALL) has delivered strong results for Q4FY2007 and the same are ahead of our expectations on the margin front. The top line has grown by 32.1% for the quarter, driven by a volume growth of 28.4% and a realisation growth of 2.9%.
- We are positively surprised by the operating profit margin (OPM), which stood at 11.6% for the current quarter against our expectations of 10.7%. In comparison with last year, the OPM has declined by 100 basis points, mainly due to a higher raw material cost. Consequently, the operating profits for the quarter have grown by 21.1% to Rs264.9 crore.
- Lower interest cost and taxes helped the company to post a net profit growth of 28.8% to Rs174.6 crore.
- For FY2007 the net sales for the company have grown by 36.5% led by a volume growth of 35%. The OPM has come down slightly by 30 basis points to 9.9% while the profit for the year has grown by 46% to Rs436.3 crore.
- For FY2008 the company has earmarked a capital expenditure of Rs1,000 crore for capacity expansions and new product developments; another Rs400 crore may be spent on acquisitions.
- We would take a cautious outlook on the industry considering the rising interest rates and tightening liquidity in the country, which would affect the sales volumes. Consequently, after a dream run in FY2007, we expect the growth rates to moderate and expect a volume growth of 11.9% for FY2008. The company expects the industry to grow at 10-12% in FY2008 and has set a target of reaching the 100,000-vehicle mark during the current fiscal.
- At the current market price of Rs39.5, the stock discounts its revised FY2008E earnings by 11x and quotes at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 6.4x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs44.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs1,350
Current market price: Rs847
Beating expectations with strong margins
- Sundaram Clayton Ltd's (SCL) Q4 results are ahead of our estimates because of a positive surprise on the operating profit margin (OPM) front.
- The net sales for the quarter grew by 25.3% to Rs218.4 crore, with both the die-casting and the air-brake division rendering a strong performance.
- The OPM improved by 160 basis points year on year (yoy) to 18.2% because of strong improvement in the operating performance of the company. The company was able to achieve better operating efficiencies due to higher volumes that led to considerable savings in the employee cost and other expenses.
- Both interest cost and depreciation charge rose due to high capital expenditure (capex) incurred by the company last year. Consequently, the adjusted net profit grew at 21% to Rs27.8 crore.
- The company has increased its capex for the next year to Rs175 crore, which shall be spent on both the divisions for capacity expansions and new product development.
- SCL has a huge investment portfolio, as it holds 56.8% in TVS Motors and also has holdings in other companies like TVS Electronics and TVS Finance & Services. In valuing the company we have assumed a 75% discount to the total investment value per share. After adjusting for the investments, the stock is currently trading at around 11.3x its stand-alone FY2008E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs1,350.
Omnicef loses patent protection
The patent for Omnicef, the antibiotic used to treat various infections, expired on May 6, 2007, paving the way for generic companies to enter the cefdinir market in the USA. In this regard, Lupin and Sandoz (the generic arm of Swiss drug maker Novartis) have received the final approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for manufacturing and marketing cefdinir in both capsule and solution forms. On the other hand, Orchid Chemicals (Orchid), Ranbaxy Laboratories (Ranbaxy) and Teva—the world's largest generic companies—are awaiting approval from the USFDA .
Sharekhan Commodities Buzz dated May 08, 2007
It was another weak session for the day. The global cues were not supportive, ahead of US Federal Reserve decision on interest rate. Indian indices started the day on a subdued note and traded on both sides with volatility. The indices edged lower due to lack of buying support as investors stayed away from market ahead of UP election results and that also brought in some level of profit taking. Some value buying in the morning brought the indices up but failed to sustain at higher levels and made inroads in to negative region, closed deeper in red. IT stock were hit badly as Rupee maintained its strength against Dollar. Profit booking was seen across the board except selective stocks in FMCG, Metals and Cement. Even the mid and small caps came in for profit taking. Asian markets closed in red, while European markets were in the red too as we write this.
Sensex closed down by 114 points at 13765.46. Weighing on the Sensex were losses in Hero Honda (679.55,-4 percent), SBI (1081.5,-3 percent), Infosys (2002.35,-2 percent), Dr Reddys (691.25,-2 percent) and Wipro (546.3,-2 percent). Losses are restricted by gains in ACC (885.55,+3 percent), Grasim (2489.1499,+1 percent), TISCO (553.15,+0 percent), L & T (1697.3,+0 percent).
Food stocks closed mixed. Tata Tea has entered into a joint venture (JV) agreement with Zhejiang Tea Import and Export Company Ltd of People's Republic of China. The agreement involves setting up a joint venture company at Economic Development Zone of Anji County, Zhejiang, PRC to manufacture and market value added tea beverage products. Tata Tea will own 70% of the registered capital of the JV company. Tata tea rallied recently on news that there was interest shown by coke in its Water business which it had recently acquired at a huge premium in the US. The stock closed marginally down. While its peer Nestle ended marginally up and ITC closed down by 1%.
Dabur India group has posted good results for the quarter and for the fy2007. Dabur has posted a net profit of Rs 283 cr for the year ended March 31, 2007 (FY07) whereas it was Rs 214 cr for the year ended March 31, 2006 (FY06). According to an official release issued by the company, total income for FY07 is Rs 2259 cr whereas it was Rs 1913 cr for FY06. For the quarter ended March 31, 2007 (Q4FY07), the company has posted a net profit of Rs 77 cr whereas it was Rs 50 cr for the quarter ended March 31, 2006. Total income for the quarter is Rs 584 cr whereas it was Rs 482 cr for Q4FY07. Consequent to the merger of three subsidiaries namely Balsara Home Products, Balsara Hygiene Products and Besta Cosmetics with Dabur retrospectively from April 01, 2006, the current period/year reflect post merger figures and hence were not comparable with figures of previous period/year. FMCG stocks closed in mixed bag, Dabur closed down by 1.81% while its peer HLL ended marginally down, P&G and Colgate ended marginally up.
Murugappa Group of companies, with varied interests in sugar, abrasives, ceramics, fertilisers and sanitary wares, today announced that it would be investing Rs 1,000 cr in its several business arms. These investments would include an exclusive sugar factory for exports in a special economic zone to be set up by the group at Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh. The group owns two fertiliser factories, Carborundrum Universal. TI cycles and EID parry, reported a profit of Rs 649 cr for the last fiscal, which was 10 per cent higher than the previous year. Sales rose by 15%, to reach Rs 8,446 cr. Barring sugar all other commodities reported higher sales. Due to fluctuations in the international prices, sugar sales came down by 22% as also profits by 45%. Carborundrum Universal, the blue chipped company of the group, reported Rs 146 cr as profit, adding Godavari Fertilisers and Coromandel fertilisers, two fertilizer units reported a profit of Rs 202 cr. The group had picked 49% equity stakes in Sanhe Yanjiiao Industrial diamond company in China during the fiscal and the group's new tubes factory in Sushou, China would commence production very soon. The group's another unit at Jingri in China, to produce bonded abrasives, was expected to be operational in the third quarter of next fiscal. The group is expanding its business aggressively to meet the growing demand; this investment helps the company to capture the market. The group companies closed in mixed note.
Technically Speaking: It was a volatile session for the whole day before closing down. Sensex touched intraday high of 13956 and low of 13741. Sensex up trend remains intact as long as above 13600. Good support lies at 13645, Resistance lies at 13900 and 13970. Market turnover was pretty good at Rs 4261 cr. Overall breadth was in favor of Declines, where the Advances stood at 891, Declines stood at 1673.
With no possible cues to direct the market and a lack of buying support in the last couple of sessions, the Sensex opened marginally in the green before slipping into the negative terrain. As buying intensified among metal, capital goods, banking and auto stocks, the Sensex entered into positive territory and touched the intra-day high of 13956. However, heavy to moderate selling in IT, consumer durables and auto stocks dragged the market into the red again and the Sensex touched the day's low of 13741. The Sensex finally closed with a loss of 128 points at 13765 while the Nifty shed 42 points to close at 4069.
The breadth of the market was extremely negative. Of the 2,632 scrips that traded on the BSE, 1,682 stocks declined, 879 stocks advanced and 71 stocks ended unchanged. All the 11 sectoral indices of the BSE ended in negative territory. The BSE IT index led the slump and shed 1.61% at 4933. The BSE Teck index, the BSE Auto index, the BSE CD index and the BSE HC index lost over 1% each.
Among index heavyweights, Hero Honda dropped 3.51% at Rs680, SBI declined by 3.36% at Rs1,082, Infosys lost 1.79% at Rs2,002, Dr Reddy's Lab shed 1.75% at Rs691, Wipro slumped by 1.51% at Rs546, Reliance Energy slipped by 1.35% at Rs506 and Cipla dipped by 1.35% at Rs112. However, ACC managed to report gains and moved up by 2.68% at Rs886 while Grasim, Tata Steel and L&T gained marginally.
Select IT stocks took a heavy beating on the bourses. Tech Mahindra tanked by 4.26% at Rs1,556, Mphasis fell by 3.63% at Rs314, i-Flex lost 3.24% at Rs2,277 and Financial Technologies was down 3.01% at Rs1,902.
Over 2.31 crore IFCI shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Tata Teleservices (72.16 lakh shares), Nagarjuna Fertilizers (65.71 lakh shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (64.97 lakh shares).
ICRA was the most actively traded counter on the BSE with a turnover of Rs260 crore followed by India Bulls (Rs229 crore), Tech Mahindra (Rs166 crore), Advanta (Rs137 crore) and Indiabulls Real Estate (Rs134 crore)
The market extended its recent slide due to lack of buying support, as investors watched from the sidelines ahead of major local and global events scheduled later in the week. The Sensex lost over 100 points on the back of a fall in IT, telecom, banking shares, and two-wheeler makers. A slide in heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) also contributed to the fall of the barometer index. Subdued Asian and European stocks also were of not much help.
The market-breadth was quite weak. Against 1,673 scrips that declined on BSE, 891 shares rose. A total of 72 scrips were unchanged. Losers outpaced gainers by a ratio of 1.87:1.
The 30-share BSE Sensex lost 113.79 points (0.82%), at 13,765.46. The market was volatile. The BSE Sensex lost steam in early afternoon trade after surging 77.15 points, to 13,956.40, by 10:53 IST. Earlier, the Sensex had come off the lower level after an initial 63.06-point slide.
The S&P CNX Nifty lost 34.15 points (0.83%), to end at 4,077. Nifty May futures provisionally ended at 4,056.90, a discount of 20.10 points over the spot price.
All sectoral indices of BSE ended in the red. The IT Index lost 80.58 points (1.61%), to 4,932.89, and the BSE Tech Index, a free float index comprising IT, telecom and media, lost 49 points (1.32%) to 3,655.54. The Bankex shed 68.03 points (1%), to 6,752.64. The BSE Healthcare Index lost 39.35 points (1.05%), at 3,697.17. The BSE Auto Index had shed 59 points (1.17%), at 4,980.06.
Small-cap as well as mid-cap indices lost ground. The BSE Small-Cap Index shed 80.86 points (1.15%), to 6,939.25. The BSE Mid-Cap Index lost 64.54 points (1.1%), to 5,779.82.
The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4261 crore, compared to Monday's Rs 4497 crore.
European shares opened subdued. Key benchmark indices in London, Germany and France were down 0.5 - 0.9%. Asian stocks gave up early gains on Tuesday, as nervous investors worried whether a global rally will run out of steam. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were down 0.07 – 1.1%.
The Dow closed at a record on Monday (7 May) for the fifth day in a row, buoyed by Alcoa's $27 billion bid for Alcan. Alcoa, the world's largest aluminum company, pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 higher with a gain of 8%, leading the latest round of takeover deals that have lifted the market in recent months. The Dow gained 48.35 points, or 0.36%, to end at a record of 13,312.97. Earlier, the Dow also hit an all-time intraday high of 13,317.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 3.86 points, or 0.26%, to finish at 1,509.48, off a fresh 52-week high at 1,511.00. But the Nasdaq Composite Index dipped 1.20 points, or 0.05%, to close at 2,570.95. Earlier, the Nasdaq also reached a new 52-week high at 2,580.06.
A spate of merger and acquisition activity, as well as increasingly eye-popping takeover bids have helped propel many global indices to record highs, supporting the view that the bull market has to run further. But economic news expected later in the week could inject some volatility into the global markets, with interest-rate decisions due in the euro zone, Britain and the United States. While no one expects a rate move by the US Federal Reserve, when it meets on Wednesday, investors are keenly awaiting the central bank's latest assessment of the world's biggest economy.
The Bank of England is seen lifting rates to 5.5% on Thursday, a move that would put British interest rates above those in the United States for the first time since January 2006. The European Central bank (ECB) is expected to hold its rates steady at 3.75% on Thursday, but signal a hike in June.
At home the key event to watch out for is the outcome of assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh (UP). Polling for the seventh and final phase of polls in Uttar Pradesh is under way (May 8) and counting of votes is due on 11 May 2007, with results expected the same day. The UP vote is seen as a barometer of national political trends.
The market drifted lower after a recent solid surge. From a peak of 14,228.88, the Sensex has lost 463.48 points at the current 13,765.46. A strong rebound on the domestic bourses had materialised as initial Q4 March 2007 results trickled in strong, and after Infosys issued a strong guidance for FY 2008 on 13 April 2007. From 12,455.37 on 2 April 2007, the Sensex surged 1,773.51 points (14.2%) to 14,228.88 on 26 April 2007.
India's long-term growth prospects remain strong. The long-term growth drivers are a favourable demography (large share of young population), robust domestic consumption and acceleration in infrastructure creation.
In today's trade, State Bank of India (SBI) led a fall in PSU banks. SBI shed 3.5% to Rs 1079. India's largest commercial bank unveils its FY 2007 (year ended 31 March 2007) results on Saturday (11 May 2007). Among other PSU banks, Bank of Baroda lost 2% to Rs 189, Vijaya Bank shed 2% to Rs 47.50, Bank of India eased 2% to Rs 189, and Bank of Baroda was down 1.5% to Rs 236.60.
ACC rose nearly 3% to Rs 887. Swiss cement maker Holcim had acquired an additional 3% stake in ACC, bringing its total stake to around 41%. Holcim today acquired 58.59 lakh shares of ACC, constituting a little above 3% equity of the company through a block deal executed on NSE for a weighted average price of Rs 899.07.
An overnight fall in ADRs and a rising rupee weighed on IT bellwether Infosys. The stock was down 1.8% at Rs 2002. On Monday, Infosys' ADR lost 3.6% to $51.92. Infosys enjoys 11% weightage in the benchmark Sensex.
Among other IT pivotals, Wipro shed 1.7% to Rs 545, TCS was down 0.7% to Rs 1268, and Satyam Computer shed 0.8% to Rs 456.55. The rupee was headed towards a nine-year high against the dollar on Tuesday. In early trade, the partially convertible rupee was at 40.755/765 per dollar, up from Monday's close of 40.87/89. The rupee's surge is a cause of concern for IT firms, as it directly impacts their revenue and profits, a lion's share of which is accounted for by exports.
Telecom shares dipped on profit-taking. Bharti Airtel shed 1.5% to Rs 809.80 and Reliance Communications lost 1.3% to Rs 460.20. RIL shed 0.8% to Rs 1592, off an early high of Rs 1614.60. A strong 6.6 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE.
Two-wheeler makers drifted lower. Hero Honda lost 3% to Rs 681.85 and Bajaj Auto shed 1.3% to Rs 2534.
Tech Mahindra lost 4.6% to Rs 1550, in volatile trade. Tech Mahindra's consolidated net profit (excluding exceptional items) jumped 120% in Q4 March 2007 at Rs 196.1 crore compared with Rs 89.1 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. Revenue surged 108% to Rs 874.5 crore compared with Rs 421.2 crore in the fourth quarter of the previous year. Tech Mahindra incurred a one-time exceptional charge towards an upfront payment of Rs 524.9 crore to a customer and has reported a net loss of Rs 328.9 crore in Q4 March 2007.
Maruti Udyog (MUL) shed 1% to Rs 797 in volatile trade. Maruti Udyog (MUL) on Monday launched its much-awaited sedan, SX4. Powered by its new global `M' series engine and built on a brand new platform, SX4 comes with two variants priced at Rs. 6.18 lakh and Rs. 6.89 lakh (ex-showroom Delhi). MUL has despatched 1,500 units of SX4 and has decided to gradually roll out the vehicle across the country.
L&T rose 0.39% to Rs 1701, after securing an order valued at Rs 215 crore from the Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority for the supply and installation of 33 kV power cables and fibre optic cables for inter connections between various substations in the eastern region of Abu Dhabi area. The contract will be executed within 18 months.
National Aluminium rose 2.5% to Rs 258.50, on hopes of a global consolidation in aluminium sector after ALCOA on Monday announced a hostile bid for Canadian rival Alcan, saying the acquisition would create the world's biggest aluminium company. But Hindalco (down 0.1% to Rs 144.80) failed to sustain a higher level. The stock had risen as much as 2.4% to Rs 148.50 in early trade.
Thomas Cook India surged for the second day in a row after the company late last week set 21 May 2007, as record date for a liberal 10-for-1 stock-split. The stock jumped almost 5% to Rs 592.40. But it pared gains from a 10% intra-day surge, to Rs 622.20.
Dabur India dropped 1.7% to Rs 94.80. The company today reported 31% growth in net profit in the March 2007 quarter at Rs 65.70 crore (Rs 50.22 crore). Net sales surged 33.6% to Rs 444.76 crore from Rs 332.69 crore.
Moser Baer lost 0.4% to Rs 361. Moser Baer Photo Voltaic, the wholly owned subsidiary of the company, has tied up with International Finance Corporation (IFC) for a Rs 100 crore funding.
Credit ratings agency ICRA dropped 6.5% to Rs 898. The stock was volatile. It came sharply off a higher level from an intra-day 3.5% surge. As many as 27.3 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE. The stock had spurted 17.4% on Monday (7 May) on a huge volume of 43.2 lakh shares on BSE.
Nagarjuna Fertilisers dropped 6% to Rs 19.10, after NSE barred further positions in its derivative contracts as 95% of marketwide limit had been reached. The stock spurted over the past few days on high volumes.
GAIL (India) dropped 4.5% to Rs 293. The Dabhol power plant is expected to switch from naphtha to natural gas by June, when GAIL (India) expects to complete a pipeline to supply the fuel. The 576 km (358 mile) pipeline will transport gas from Dahej to the power plant at Dabhol. GAIL said that on Monday it had commissioned the first phase of the pipeline, which is 100 km long. The pipeline, expected to cost Rs 3200 crore, will be able to transport 12 million cubic metres of gas a day.
Marico was flat at Rs 55.50, despite reports that it was set to hike hair oil product prices by 7%.
Reliance Capital rose 3.5% to Rs 769.10, boosted by a media report that Blackstone Group and Schroders were keen to buy a small stake in Reliance Mutual Fund, a unit of Reliance Capital.
Shrenuj & Company jumped almost 7% to Rs 47.50, on buying out Simon Golub & Sons Inc., a US-based jewellery distributor, for $22.7 million.
Kavveri Telecom Products jumped 7% to Rs 58, after the firm said it was expecting orders worth Rs 50 crore from Ericsson India, over three years.
Indus Fila dropped nearly 1% to Rs 162, even as the company on Monday reported a 406% growth in net profit in FY 2007 (year ended 31 March 2007) to Rs 26.14 crore (Rs 5.16 crore). Net sales rose 226% to Rs 268.94 crore (Rs 82.49 crore).
Subex Azure dropped 1.8% to Rs 643, even as the telecom software firm said it expected to convert 40% of the current year's order pipeline worth $310 million into firm orders.
DMC International jumped 5% to Rs 44.25, after the financial services firm said its board would meet on 14 May 2007, to consider an issue of bonus shares.
Mid-Day Multimedia plunged 9% to Rs 47.25, after the newspaper publisher posted a net loss of Rs 2.89 crore, which includes an extraordinary item of Rs 2.66 crore for the March 2007 quarter compared with a net profit of Rs 3.98 crore in the March 2006 quarter.
Syschem India lost 4.7% to Rs 1.42. The company said on Monday its board had approved consolidating 10 shares of Re 1 face value each into a share of Rs 10 each.
Finance minister P Chidambaram said on Tuesday that steps taken by the central bank and government will help moderate inflation. Chidambaram said the current high rate of inflation was triggered by hardening of commodity prices, particularly of metals and crude oil, supply-demand mismatch -- first in sugar, then in wheat and now in pulses, increase in money supply due to capital inflow and increase in demand as a result of rise in public expenditure.
The long-term solution to bring down inflation is to correct the supply-demand mismatch, created mainly due to stagnation in production of wheat, paddy and pulses, he said. The Finance Minister said, during the past nine years inflation has been in highs and lows. However, the difference in inflation rates during the NDA and the UPA regime is the economic growth factor, he said, adding average growth during the NDA rule was 5.8% while it was 8.6% during the three years of the UPA rule.
IISL - Alok Industries Q4FY07 Result Update (Buy), IISL - RPG Transmission Q4FY07 Result Update, IISL - Pantaloon Retail India Q3FY07 Result Update
IISL - Alok Industries Q4FY07 Result Update (Buy)
IISL - Pantaloon Retail India Q3FY07 Result Update
Buy Mindtree Consulting with stop loss of Rs 750 for a target of Rs 1012.
Buy ICRA with stop loss of Rs 790 for a target of Rs 1200.
Rajat K Bose
Buy Technocraft Industries only when it goes above Rs 94.50 with stop loss below 92 for a target of Rs 99–101. This is a day-trading recommendation.
Buy Dish TV with stop loss below Rs 113 for a target of Rs 122, 124 and 127. This is a day-trading recommendation.
Short Sell Bombay Dyeing above Rs 545 with stop loss of Rs 555. This is a day-trading recommendation.
Buy Alstom Project below Rs 524 with stop loss of Rs 515. This is a day-trading recommendation.
NIFTY (4111.15) SUP 4084 RES 4131
BUY RAJTV (185.75)
SL 181 T 193,195
BUY IOC (460.7)
SL 455 T 470,473
BUY RANBAXY (391.4)
SL 386 T 402,405
SELL CUMMINSIND (304.60)
@ 307 SL 311 T 296,294
SELL IOB (112.55)
@ 114 SL 117 T 105,103
Bulls take a backseat
Difficulties are meant to rouse, not discourage. The human spirit is to grow strong by conflict.
Despite Asian markets being in a pink of health yesterday, local bulls ran out of gas with the key indices ending marginally lower. Market breadth was negative and traded volume was down, giving an impression that some fatigue is setting in after the recent rally. IT companies are still being hammered as the rupee keeps scaling new peaks against the dollar. While the RBI may be comfortable with the steep rise in the rupee as it wants to curb inflation, the relentless appreciation in the Indian currency is having some adverse impact on investor sentiment.
FII inflows have tapered off a little bit this month after last month's bumper investment. Volatility has increased in recent days amid lack of triggers. Though results are still pouring in, most of the good news from earnings are already reflected in stock prices. The monetary policy is gone and looks like one could hope for some stability in interest rates for a while. Inflation is starting to soften, but still remains a threat. Now all eyes will be on the monsoon. In the immediate future, the Fed meeting outcome tomorrow UP poll results on May 11 will be key factors.
We expect the market to open on a cautious note after two days of reversals. Just as we expected profit booking at higher levels, expect some select buying later during the day. A fear of an unexpected fall is keeping investors on tenterhooks. Remain extremely cautious and for anything in the world don't leverage. In fact as we mentioned yesterday, keep a fair amount of cash handy.
Wall Street finished flat though the Dow made another record close. Asian markets are trading slightly in the red. The market is likely to remain rangebound and choppy in the near term due to sheer lack of big events. The action will continue be stock-specific. Fresh buying at this juncture is a little risky though we do not foresee any major decline. One should instead lock in some gains and wait for better bargains when the key indices dip slightly more.
On Wall Street the story remains similar. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at another all-time high on Monday. With this, it has now closed with gains for the 24th out of the previous 27 sessions, matching an 80-year-old record.
The Dow rose 48.35 points, or 0.4%, to 13,312.97. The S&P 500 added 3.86 points, or 0.3%, to 1509.48. The Nasdaq Composite Index finished flat at 2570.95, dragged down by Activision and Yahoo.
Alcoa shares advanced to the highest level since January 2004, after offering to buy Alcan in a cash and stock deal worth $26.9bn. Each Alcan share would be exchanged for $58.60 in cash and 0.4108 of an Alcoa share. That values Alcan at $73.25, or 20% more than its closing price last week. Including debt, the deal would be valued at $33bn.
Investors will be keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting on Wednesday. Central bank policymakers are widely expected to keep a key short-term interest rate steady at 5.25% for the seventh meeting in a row. As always, investors will be focused on what the FOMC says on the economy and interest rates going ahead.
Treasury prices ticked higher, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 4.63% from 4.64% late on Friday. In currency trading, the dollar slipped against the euro and the yen. COMEX gold rose 60 cents to settle at $690.30 an ounce.
US light crude oil for June delivery fell 46 cents to settle at $61.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract was quoting 5 cents down $61.42 a barrel.
European markets closed flat. There were holidays in several European countries and the UK stock market was shut. The French CAC 40 ended virtually unchanged at 6,071.48. The market got an early bump higher after favored candidate, the conservative Sarkozy, defeated Segolene Royal in Sunday's final round presidential election. Elsewhere in Europe, the German DAX 30 ended up 0.1% at 7,525.69.
Mexican and Brazilian stocks fell. After soaring to a new intraday high just after the opening, Mexico's IPC reversed course and ended down 0.8%, 237 points, at 29,776.57. Earlier, the IPC set an intraday record of 30,159.13. The main Ibovespa stock index ended 0.6% lower at 50,282 after finishing at an all-time record close of 50,597 on Friday.
Asian stocks are slightly down this morning. Mitsubishi UFJ Group led Japanese banks higher as concern eased that earnings will disappoint investors. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index added less than 0.1% to 149.51 at 11:22 a.m. in Tokyo. The index yesterday jumped 1.5% to a record. Benchmarks advanced in the Philippines and New Zealand, and fell elsewhere. Japan's Nikkei was down 21 points at 17,648, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong dropped 38 points at 20,858. The Kospi in Seoul was flat at 1584 and the Straits times in Singapore lost 7 points at 3469.
Another choppy day in store
Volatile session ended on a negative note as selling pressure in the index heavy weights like ICICI Bank, Infosys, Reliance Communication and Tata Motors. Markets got strong support from International markets in early trades but profit booking at higher levels dragged the markets lower. All the key sectoral indices except for the Oil & Gas index ended in red. HPCL, BPCL, IOC and Reliance Industries were the leading gainers among the Oil & Gas stocks. Even the Mid- Cap and the small cap stocks pared gains.
Recently listed stocks were in action, scrip’s like ICRA, Mind Tree and Advanta were the smart gainers. Finally, the 30-share benchmark Sensex dropped 55 points to close at 13879. NSE Nifty was down 6 points to close at 4111.
Pratibha Industries was locked at 5% upper circuit to Rs217.70 after the company secured orders worth Rs1.57bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs217.70 and a low of Rs203 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.
Ashok Leyland dropped by 1.6% to Rs38. The company announced its April Vehicle sales at 5849 units (up 16%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs40 and a low of Rs38 and recorded volumes of over 41,00,000 shares on NSE.
Raj Television surged by over 4% to Rs186 after the company announced that they would broadcast the Neo Sports Live Feed for the India Bangladesh cricket Series in Tamil & Telugu language. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs187 and a low of Rs179 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on NSE.
Union Bank of India marginally slipped 0.6% to Rs108. The company announced that they would pay Rs2 as final dividend. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs112 and a low of Rs107 and recorded volumes of over 9,00,000 shares on NSE.
Trent surged by over 2.5% to Rs751 after the company announced that they would pay interim dividend of Rs7 a share. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs800 and a low of Rs735 and recorded volumes of over 7,000 shares on NSE.
Oil & Gas stocks ended on a strong note led by gains in the index heavy weight Reliance Industries gained by 1.4% to Rs1604, HPCL surged by over 4.5% to Rs290, BPCL advanced 4.6% to Rs350 and IOC added 4.1% to Rs460.
FMCG stocks are also on the receiving end. Colgate has dropped by 4% to rs380, Tata Tea is down by 1.6% to Rs750, ITC has declined by 0.7% to Rs160 and Nirma has slipped 0.6% to Rs162.
Auto stocks also were among the losing sector. M&M lost 1.8% to Rs775, Tata Motors slipped 0.6% to Rs728 and Maruti edged lower by 0.4% to Rs804. However, Hero Honda advanced 1% to Rs706.
Technology stocks were on the receiving end as the Indian Rupee further strengthened against the US Dollar. Satyam Computer slipped 2.2% to Rs460, Infosys was down 1.5% to Rs2041 and Wipro declined 2.6% to Rs552. Others like Moser Baer, Polaris and NIIT Ltd were major losers among the Mid-Cap stocks.
Vishal Exports Overseas Limited: Industrial Development Bank of India Ltd has sold in open market 7562946 equity shares of Vishal Exports Overseas Limited on 30th April 2007.
The BSE IT index was the major loser and lost 0.88%. BSE Bank index (down 0.78%), BSE Metal index (down 0.51%) and BSE Auto index (down 0.49%) were among the other major losers. However, BSE Oil & Gas index gained by 1.06%.
IFCI, Nagarjuna Fertilizers, TTML, RNRL, Ispat Industries, IDBI, SAIL, IBREAL, RPL, Dish TV, ICRA, Zee News, UTI Bank, Ashok Leyland, ITC, FSL, Rolta, Orbit Corp, R Comm, India Cements and Parsvnath Developers.
Tele Data Informatics, Tanla, Deccan Aviation, Today Writing, Tripex Overseas and Marg Construction
ABB, ACC, Essel Propack, Federal Bank, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilisers, IOC, Jain Irrigation, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Tata Chemicals, Tata Tea, UTI Bank and VSNL.
Eicher Motors, Century Textiles Century Textiles, Grasim Industries, SAIL, Tata Tea, Ashok Leyland, HCL Technologies, Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd and Indian Hotels.
Stock Futures with Largest Increases in OI:
Cairn India, IOC, J&K Bank, Canara Bank, HPCL, Renuka Sugar, ABB, Alok Industries, JP Associates and GE Ship.
Stock Futures with Largest Decreases in OI:
UTI Bank, IFCI, SCI, Cummins, Ranbaxy, Tata Tea, Divis Labs, Karnataka Bank, Arvind Mills and Chennai Petroleum
Tech Mahindra Q4 loss at Rs3.29bn after a one-time payment of Rs5.25bn to a customer reduced its earnings, revenues at Rs8.75 (up 107%)
J&K Bank Q4 profit at Rs452.8mn (up 98.6%), revenue at Rs5.75bn (up 16%) and to pay dividend of Rs11.5 per share.
Hindalco – Underperform from CLSA with target of Rs140.
Long Term investment:
Major News Headlines:
Vijay Mallya interested in buying stake in Deccan Aviation: reports
Electrosteel Castings approves investment of Rs5bn
Aurobindo Pharma gets USFDA nod for its Zolpidem
Pratibha Industries secures order worth Rs1.57bn
Trent to pay interim dividend of Rs7 a share
Union Bank of India to pay Rs2 as final dividend
Ashok Leyland April Vehicle sales at 5849 units (up 16%).
Apollo Tyres (ATL) – Q4FY07
Target Price: Rs424
Q4FY07 Financial Highlights
Net Sales increases by 22% to Rs9.1bn
Operating profit increases by 78.1% to Rs1bn
Operating margin increases by 340 bps to 11%
PAT increases by 61.9% Rs427mn
We have revised upwards our EPS estimates for FY08 and FY09 from 27.0 and 31.2 to 29.0 and 33.5 respectively to give effect for rubber price reduction. We expect tyre companies to improve volumes as economy progresses well and not to get affected due to slowdown in automobile sales. We revise our target upwards from Rs397 to Rs424. Our target discounts FY09 estimated earnings by 12x and giving Rs22 per share for Dunlop Tyres (South Africa), earnings. Maintain BUY.
Caution may prevail on the domestic bourses as investors may remain on the sidelines ahead of major local and global events later this week. Asian stocks gave up early gains on Tuesday on as nervous investors worried whether a global rally would run out of steam. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were down by between 0.04% to 0.46%. A spate of merger and acquisition activity and increasingly eye-popping takeover bids have helped propel many global indexes to record highs, supporting the view that the long bull market has further to run.
But Indian markets had retreated in the past two days in contrast to a firm trend in global markets, due to lack of follow up buying at higher level after a recent solid surge in share prices. Corporate results announced so far have been strong. The major Q4 results today are Dabur India and GAIL (India).
The seventh and final phase of polls in Uttar Pradesh is scheduled for on Tuesday (May 8) and counting of votes is due on 11 May 2007, with results expected on the same day. The UP vote is seen as a barometer of national political trends.
Foreign funds resumed buying after they had turned sellers in two trading sessions, on 27 April and 30 April. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 212 crore on Friday 4 May. Their inflow was Rs 56.20 crore on 3 May 2007. As per provisional data, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 74.57 crore on Monday 7 May. Domestic institutional investors were net buyers to the tune of Rs 143.58 crore on 7 May.
Economic news expected later in the week could inject some volatility into the global markets, with interest-rate decisions due in the euro zone, Britain and the United States. While no one expects a rate move by the US Federal Reserve when it meets on Wednesday, investors are keenly awaiting the central bank's latest assessment of the world's biggest economy.
The Bank of England is seen lifting rates to 5.5% on Thursday, a move that would put British interest rates above those in the United States for the first time since January 2006. The European Central bank is expected to hold its rates steady at 3.75 percent on Thursday but signal a hike in June.
The Dow closed at a record on Monday (7 May) for the fifth day in a row, buoyed by Alcoa's $27 billion bid for Alcan. Alcoa Inc. the world's largest aluminum company, pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 higher with a gain of 8 percent, leading the latest round of takeover deals that have lifted the market in recent months. Dow gained 48.35 points, or 0.36 percent, to end at a record of 13,312.97. Earlier, the Dow also hit an all-time intraday high of 13,317.69. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index advanced 3.86 points, or 0.26 percent, to finish at 1,509.48, off a fresh 52-week high at 1,511.00. But the Nasdaq Composite Index dipped 1.20 points, or 0.05 percent, to close at 2,570.95. Earlier, the Nasdaq also reached a new 52-week high at 2,580.06.
Benchmark London Brent crude was up 6 cents at $64.50 a barrel after slumping nearly 6 percent in as many days on growing crude inventories.
The NIFTY futures saw a rise in OI to the tune 7.79% with prices coming down from high and closing in negative indicating short positions were built up in the market at higher levels indicating that if market remains weak today also we may see fresh selling emerging in the market .The discount in nifty futures widened and nifty futures closed at 12 points discount to spot nifty indicating aggressive short positions built up and profit booking emerging in the market at higher levels. The FII sold index futures to the tune of 42crs and buyers in index options to the tune of 21crs. The PCR has come up from 1.16 to 1.19 indicates some strength may be seen in the market. The IV is around 24.85 levels indicating some volatile trading sessions ahead.
Among the Big guns, ONGC saw 4.41% rise in OI with prices coming down 0.47% indicating shorts built up their positions and long positions liquidated in the counter indicating weakness in the counter. Whereas RELIANCE saw 3.38% drop in OI with prices coming down from high indicating selling pressure emerging at higher levels and drop in prices was mainly driven by profit booking and which is expected to be continued for few days.
In the TECH front, INOFSYSTCH& TCS, WIPRO & SATYAMCOMP saw rise in OI with prices coming down sharply indicating fresh short positions being built up in overall IT pack indicating some weakness may be seen in IT pack.
In the BANKING counters, SBIN saw rise OI to the tune of 0.06% with prices coming down and closing in negative indicating short position being built up in this counter indicating weakness may prevail in this counter.ICICIBANK saw rise in OI with fall in prices indicating short positions being built up in this counter indicating weakness in the counter. HDFCBANK saw rise in OI with drop in prices indicating fresh selling may emerge in the counter.
In the metal pack TATASTEEL saw rise in OI to the tune of 1.51% with price down to the tune of 0.54% indicating fresh selling happened in the counter suggesting weakness may be seen in this counter. SAIL saw rise in OI with rise in prices indicating fresh buying emerging in the counter suggesting strength in the counter. HINDALCO saw rise in OI with fall in prices indicating weakness in the counter. STER saw liquidation of positions with prices almost flat indicating buying emerging at lower levels indicating some strength in the counter.
The stocks to be watched in coming days would be MAHSEAMLESS, HINDPETRO, IOC, TTML etc.We feel that the volume and built up in OI suggests that market may show some profit booking in the coming days .Market may show weakness if it closes below 4050 levels where we may see fresh short positions built up in the market and long liquidation in the market. One should trade with strict stop losses to be adhered too.
Anand Rathi - Daily Strategist - May 8 2007
Nifty and Sensex have exhibited a narrow bearish candlestick.
Technically, one may use the level of 4080 (Nifty) and 13800 (Sensex) as the stop loss level.
Nifty faces resistance at 4185 and Sensex at 14225.
BSE Smallcap and BSE Midcap also exhibited bearish candlesticks.
CNX IT has lost ground.
In the Punter's zone we have a Buy in India Bulls & Sell in Polaris and Tech Mahindra.
In the Technical call section, we have a Buy in Crompton Greaves & Sell in Icici Bank and Satyam Comp.
Anand Rathi - Daily Technical Note - May 8 2007
FROM SHAREKHAN'S DESK
Robust results but hurdles ahead
Sharekhan top picks
In the April 2007 issue, we had recommended the best 12 of our Stock Ideas as Sharekhan Top Picks. As on May 3, 2007, the basket of stocks has given absolute return of 14% as compared to a 13% appreciation in the Sensex and a 14.2% rise in the S&P CNX Nifty.
Cluster: Emerging Star
Price target: Rs400
Current market price: Rs300
Price target revised to Rs400
- 3i Infotech has reported a growth of 22.5% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 75.2% year on year (yoy) in its consolidated revenues to Rs210.2 crore for the fourth quarter. The service business grew by 28.3% sequentially to Rs102.6 crore whereas the product business grew by 17.4% qoq to Rs107.6 crore.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) continued to firm up. The OPM improved by 20 basis points to 25% (the highest ever reported in any quarter) on the back of a sharp improvement in the margins of the service business.
- The benefits from the lower software product development charges were nullified by the higher depreciation and lower other income. However, an increase in the tax rate resulted in a relatively lower growth rate in the earnings of 16.7% qoq and 83.7% yoy to Rs32.2 crore, in line with our expectations of Rs32.3 crore.
- On a full year basis, the consolidated revenues and earnings have grown by 56.8% and 80.6% respectively. The OPM has shown an improvement of 370 basis points to 24.2% during the year.
- In terms of operational highlights, the company continues to show a healthy growth in the pending order book that has grown by 33% qoq to Rs568.7 crore. This is more than double of Rs266 crore as in March 2006.
- The growth guidance for FY2008 is also healthy. Revenues are guided in the range of Rs1,000-1,100 crore (a growth of 49-64% over the total turnover of Rs670.8 crore). The earnings per share (EPS) are guided in the range of Rs20.1-21.5 per share (on a fully diluted equity base as on March 2007).
- Along with the results, the company has rewarded the shareholders with a bonus issue of 1:1 and a dividend of 20% (or Rs2 per share).
- To factor in the healthy order backlog and robust growth guidance, we have revised our FY2008 earnings estimate by 3.9% and introduced our FY2009 estimate in the note. At the current market price the stock trades at 14.1x FY2008 and 11.2x FY2009 estimated earnings (based on fully diluted equity including the Euro 30-million foreign currency convertible bond [FCCB] issue closed in April 2007 and earnings are adjusted for dividend on the preference shares). We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a revised price target of Rs400.
Cluster: Emerging Star
Price target: Rs2,528
Current market price: Rs2,280
Price target revised to Rs2,528
- Aban Offshore (AOL) reported a marginal decline in its stand-alone revenues to Rs118.7 crore during Q4FY2007. This is in line with expectations as there was no re-pricing of any asset in the parent company. In fact, one of its assets Aban II was not operational for part of the quarter.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) slipped sharply to 40.2% (down from 57.1% in Q4FY2006) due to lower revenues from Aban II, increase in the staff cost (380 basis points) and insurance charges (430 basis points) as a percentage of sales, and extraordinary expenses of Rs7.5 crore (incurred towards the issue of foreign currency convertible bonds [FCCB] and preferential shares).
- However, the jump in the other income component to Rs34.9 crore (up from Rs3.7 crore) enabled the company to report a 34.5% growth in its earnings to Rs29.6 crore. The other income was boosted by the foreign exchange (forex) gains (on the forward hedges and FCCB proceeds) of around Rs17 crore. Moreover, the company would also have benefited from the interest on loans given to its Singapore subsidiary, Aban Singapore Pte (ASPL).
- On the full year basis also, the stand-alone revenue growth was largely flat at Rs497.5 crore as compared to Rs490.2 crore in FY2006. The OPM declined by 740 basis points to 49.8%. However, the huge jump in the other income to Rs59.2 crore (up from Rs15.3 crore) enabled the company to post a 9.2% growth in the stand-alone earnings to Rs91.5 crore. It should be noted that the stand-alone results do not reflect the complete picture, as the company has been valued at its FY2009 estimated earnings on a consolidated basis.
- Along with the results the company has announced the conversion of the $100 million FCCB at a price of Rs2,789 per share. Thus, the dilution in equity would be around 1.5 million equity shares (as against our base case estimate of the conversion at Rs1,400 per share.) Consequently, even though the estimates for FY2008 and FY2009 remain unchanged, the target price is revised upwards to Rs2,528 to factor in the lower than anticipated dilution in equity. We maintain our Buy call on the stock.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs880
Current market price: Rs791
Price target revised to Rs880
- ACC's pre-extraordinary net profit for the first quarter of CY2007 grew by 39% year on year (yoy) to Rs344 crore, in line with our expectations.
- The net sales grew by 26.7% yoy to Rs1,674 crore of which Rs1,619 crore came from selling cement. Even though cement volumes dipped by 3.8% yoy on account of maintenance and shut-downs during the quarter, the drop was more than offset by higher realisations (a growth of 30% yoy).
- The expenditure grew by 15% yoy but remained flat on a quarterly basis at Rs1,167 crore. On account of a higher realisation growth, the operating profit grew by 60.9% yoy. The operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 650 basis points on a yearly basis and by 140 basis points on a sequential basis.
- The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne for the quarter stood at Rs1,040, clocking a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 67% and a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth of 6.7%.
- The interest cost stood at Rs4 crore whereas the depreciation provision dropped to Rs62 crore.
- To enhance its focus on the ready-made concrete (RMC) business, the company's board approved the transfer of the RMC business to a 100% subsidiary called ACC Concrete.
- Cushioned by an other income component of Rs28 crore, the profit after tax (PAT) grew by 39% yoy to Rs344 crore. Considering an extraordinary income of Rs19 crore on account of the sale of ACC's residual stake in Everest Industries, the net profit stood at Rs363 crore.
- In order to boost its volume growth in future, the company is carrying out a slew of measures that will result in higher capacity in each of the next three years. By the end of the current year, the company's total capacity will expand by 4 million metric tonne (MMT) on account of de-bottlenecking at its various plants.
- Taking cognisance of the price freeze for the next one year and expecting the fresh capacities to start kicking in by the second half of the next financial year, we have assumed a realisation growth of 6% for CY2007 and no growth for CY2008. Thus, we are downgrading our CY2008 earnings per share (EPS) estimate by 16% to Rs66. But considering the lower depreciation provided by the company in the quarter, we are marginally upgrading our CY2007 EPS estimate to Rs71.4.
- At the current market price of Rs791 per share, ACC is trading at 11.0x its CY2007E earnings and 12.0x its CY2008E earnings. On an enterprise value (EV) per tonne basis, the stock currently trades at USD127 per tonne on CY2008E capacity. The last three months have been tumultuous for the cement industry on account of uncertainties over prices due to excise duty hikes, price freeze etc. It may be recalled that we had mentioned in our previous note that we would be reviewing our price target. Now considering the revised earnings estimates for CY2007 and CY2008, we are downgrading our price target to Rs880 per share.
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs44
Current market price: Rs36
Price target revised to Rs44
- Ashok Leyland's total vehicle sales during March dropped by 1.55% to 8,444 units as against 8,577 units in the same month a year ago. The bus sales rose by 5% to 1,671 vehicles while the truck sales marked a decline of 2% of 6,773 vehicles. The domestic sales declined slightly by 1.9% year on year (yoy) to 7,936 vehicles while the exports saw an improvement of 3.7% with sales of 508 vehicles.
- The decline can be attributed to the non-availability of finance in the month and a bandh being declared in Tamil Nadu on the last working day of the year. The sales in Tamil Nadu comprise of approximately 15%-18% of the overall sales volume.
- For the full year FY2007, the company has marked a sales growth of 34.8% yoy to 83,101 vehicles. The company has comfortably surpassed its sales target of 80,000 vehicles for the year.
- Going forward, the company expects the growth in the commercial vehicle industry to continue at 10-15%. However, with the rising interest rates, tightening liquidity and huge capital expenditure planned for the next 3-4 years, we would take a cautious outlook at the industry and the company.
- The company had a dream run in FY2007 as its volumes marked a brilliant growth of 35%. The growth rates are expected to moderate henceforth. Consequently we are reducing our volume growth estimates for the company from 15% to 11.9% for FY2008. The doubling of the capital expenditure for FY2008 to Rs1,000 crore is expected to restrict the profit after tax (PAT) growth. Consequently, we are downgrading our earnings per share (EPS) estimate for FY2008 by 10% from Rs4 to Rs3.6.
- At the current market price of Rs36, the stock discounts its revised FY2008E earnings by 10x and quotes at an enterprise value/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation of 6.3x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs44.
Bank of Baroda
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs310
Current market price: Rs236
Q4FY2007 results—first-cut analysis
- Bank of Baroda's Q4FY2007 results are marginally below expectations; the profit after tax grew by 17.6% year on year (yoy) but declined 25.4% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs245.7crore compared with our estimate of Rs256.7crore.
- The net interest income was up by 27.5% yoy and 15% qoq to Rs1,104 crore and was better than our estimate of Rs1,002 crore. For FY2007 the reported net interest margin (NIM) stood at 3.23% compared with 3.21% for the nine months ended December 2006. This implies that the bank witnessed a marginal expansion in its NIM during Q4FY2007. However excluding the one-time interest on the cash reserve ratio balances, the margin appears to decline by four basis points to 3.19% in FY2007 which reflects that the NIM has remained under pressure.
- The non-interest income declined by 35.4% yoy and 28% qoq to Rs240.3 crore mainly due to a lower treasury income, core fee income grew by 36.4% yoy and 13.9% qoq.
- The operating profit was up 2.5% yoy but down by 10.7% qoq. However the core operating profit (operating profit excluding treasury) grew by 11.8% yoy and 12.1% qoq.
- The total business of the bank increased by 35.8% to Rs20,8537 crore. While the deposits increased by 33% to Rs12,4916 crore the advances increased by 40% to Rs83,621 crore of which retail credit was up 46.4%. The bank's overseas operation saw a phenomenal 72% year-on-year jump in the business.
- The asset quality of the bank continues to be healthy with the gross non-performing asset (NPA) at Rs2,092 crore, reporting a sequential decline of Rs300 crore, and the net NPA in percentage terms standing at 0.6%, down sequentially from 0.67%. The capital adequacy ratio remains at a comfortable 11.8% with Tier-I capital at 8.74%.
- At the current market price of Rs236, the stock is quoting at 6.6x its FY2008E earnings and 0.9x FY2008E book value. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs310.
Bank of India
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs219
Current market price: Rs200
Price target revised to Rs219
- Bank of India's (BOI) Q4FY2007 profit after tax (PAT) was way above expectations. It grew by 76% year on year (yoy) to Rs447 crore compared with our estimate of Rs288.9 crore, mainly due to an unexpected 78.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) jump in the non-interest income.
- The net interest income (NII) grew by 28.8% yoy and 7.7% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs991 crore against our estimate of Rs973 crore. The NII figures are adjusted for one-off items to the tune of Rs40 crore and Rs107 crore in Q4FY2007 and Q4FY2006 respectively. Higher yields and controlled costs with a stable low cost deposit base have helped the bank to show an improvement in the margin sequentially.
- The non-interest income was a surprise as it grew by 78% yoy and 79% qoq to Rs576 crore. The 40.4% y-o-y and 38.5% q-o-q growth in the fee income is very promising and looks to be sustainable, as it was driven by a growth in the core fee income generating businesses like remittances, cash management, bank guarantees etc.
- The operating expenses grew by 22% yoy, in line with the business growth. The operating profit was up by 63.6% yoy and 49.5% qoq to Rs918.3 crore.
- Provisions increased by 4.5% yoy and 27.5% qoq to Rs369.5 crore mainly on account of higher other provisions influenced by standard assets provision, as the non-performing asset (NPA) provisions reported a decline on y-o-y and q-o-q bases.
- The bank's asset quality has showed consistent improvement with the net NPA and gross NPA both showing a decline in percentage and absolute terms. The net NPAs stood at 0.74% as on March 2007 compared with 0.95% reported in December 2006 while the gross NPAs showed a decline to Rs2,100 crore from Rs2,186 crore in the previous quarter.
- We feel BOI has so far proved to be the best performing public sector bank (PSB) in FY2007 based on all parameters and its management has shown proper intent to maintain the improved performance. We have revised our FY2008E PAT by 15% to Rs1,352 crore, based on the improved earnings visibility for the bank. At the current market price of Rs200, the stock is quoting at 7.2x its FY2008E earnings per share (EPS), 3.1x pre-provisioning profit (PPP) and 1.5x FY2008E book value (BV). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs219.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs1,715
Current market price: Rs1,650
Bharat Electronics (BEL) has announced its provisional results for FY2007. The gross sales have grown by 12% to Rs3,960.4 crore in FY2007, lower than our estimates of Rs4,191 crore. However, the improvement in its margins and a surge in the other income component have resulted in a relatively much higher growth of 21.8% in the profit before tax (PBT) to Rs1,041.6 crore (ahead of our estimates of Rs996 crore) during FY2007. This essentially implies that the PBT has shown a robust growth of 27.8% during the fourth quarter.
Bharat Heavy Electricals
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs2,650
Current market price: Rs2,254
Targeting $10 billion turnover
- At Rs2,385 crore the FY2007 net profit of Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) grew by 42% and the same is in line with our estimates. The turnover for FY2007 grew by 29% to Rs18,702 crore.
- Order inflows during the year grew by a whopping 88% to Rs35,633 crore. In the power business, BHEL secured orders worth Rs27,722 crore and in the industry sector, it secured the highest order ever worth Rs6,008 crore during the year. The order backlog at the end of March 31, 2007 stood at Rs55,000 crore, which is around 3x its FY2007 sales.
- In the international business, BHEL secured export orders of Rs1,903 crore during the year in comparison with an average yearly order book of Rs1,275 crore in the last five years.
- At the current levels, the stock is trading at 18.0x its FY2008E earnings and 10.7x its FY2008E earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs2,650.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs900
Current market price: Rs825
Price target revised to Rs900
- Bharti Airtel has announced a robust revenue growth of 9.8% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 58.1% year on year (yoy) to Rs5,393 crore for Q4FY2007. The sequential revenue growth was driven by a 12.9% rise in the mobile revenues whereas the non-mobile businesses grew at relatively lower rate of 5.6% sequentially to Rs1,871 crore.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) at 41.5% is the highest reported in any quarter. The sequential improvement of 70 basis points came as a positive surprise and was driven by a 160-basis-point sequential improvement in the OPM of the mobile business. The ability to boost margins in spite of the adverse impact of the reduction in the roaming charges (adverse impact of Rs50-60 crore) is quite commendable. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 11.8% qoq and 419.4% yoy to Rs2,241 crore.
- The profit before tax (PBT) grew by 4.5% qoq to Rs1,507 crore and was in line with expectations. However, the decline in the effective tax rate to 9% (as compared with 14.8% in Q3) resulted in a higher than expected net profit of Rs1,353 crore (up by 11.4% qoq and 98.3% yoy).
- For the full year, the consolidated revenues and earnings grew by 58.8% to Rs18,520 crore and 88.6% to Rs4,257 crore. The OPM improved by 320 basis points to 40.2% (contributed by a 160-basis-point improvement in the OPM of the mobile business and a 320-basis-point uptick in the margin of the non-mobile business). The total subscriber base grew by 86.4% to over 39 million in FY2007 (including 37.14 million mobile subscriber base, which grew by 89.7% during the year).
- In terms of key highlights, there were a number of regulatory changes introduced during the quarter. The reduction in the roaming charges was negative whereas the introduction of revised access deficit charge (ADC) regime and reduction in the port charges payable to state-owned telecom operators would have a positive impact on the earnings.
- In terms of business environment, the government announced the increase in the limit for foreign direct investment (FDI) from 49% to 74% and steps are being taken to implement the same. Another key development was the entry of Vodafone as a competitor through the acquisition of a controlling stake in Hutch Essar.
- To factor in the better than expected performance, we have revised upwards our earnings estimates by 2.8% for FY2008 and introduced our FY2009 estimates. At the current market price the stock trades at 25.8x FY2008 and 20.2x FY2009 estimated earnings. We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a revised one-year price target of Rs900.
Cluster: Emerging Star
Price target: Rs425
Current market price: Rs318
- The total operating income of Cadila Healthcare increased by 26.4% year on year (yoy) to Rs437.2 crore in Q4FY2007, driven by a 25.8% growth in the formulation exports and a 22.1% rise in the exports of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). The sales growth was ahead of our expectations.
- The 105.1% jump in the formulation exports was driven by the improved performance of the French (growth of 48.8% yoy) and US businesses (growth of 96.4% yoy).
- The operating margins shrank by 270 basis points, largely due to a 35.8% rise in the staff cost and a 54.8% rise in the research and development (R&D) costs. Consequently, the operating profits grew by 8.4% to Rs71.1 crore.
- Cadila's adjusted net profit grew by 27.1% to Rs38.9 crore. The profit growth was slightly below our expectation.
- For FY2007, Cadila's revenues jumped by 23.2% to Rs1,829 crore, driven by a 91% growth in the formulation exports, a 31% growth in the API exports and a 54% rise in the consumer business. The sales growth was ahead of our estimates. The 91% rise in the formulation exports came on the back of a 186% growth in the US business, a 103% growth in France and a 26% surge in the exports to the rest of the world (ROW) markets.
- The net profit for FY2007 increased by 53.7% to Rs233.8 crore. The growth in the profit was slightly below our expectations.
- At the current market price of Rs318, the company is trading at 14.4x its FY2007E and at 11.9x its FY2008E estimated earnings. With all the growth drivers in place and on track, we reiterate our Buy recommendation on Cadila with a price target of Rs425.
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs190
Current market price: Rs137
A brilliant performance
- Ceat's Q4FY2007 numbers are way ahead of our expectations. The net sales have risen by a brilliant 16.2% to Rs562.9 crore on the back of a 3% tonnage growth and a very strong realisation growth. The original equipment manufacturer (OEM) sales recorded a significant improvement of 58.4% during the quarter. The replacement sales continue to grow at a good pace of 10%.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 250 basis points to 7.8% as a result of a lower raw material cost during the quarter and other efficiencies. As a result the operating profit grew by 70.3% to Rs43.9 crore.
- The company was able to lower its raw material cost due to forward booking of rubber at lower prices. The company has made arrangements to procure rubber at lower prices in future as well, which would help it to maintain its margins in the coming quarters.
- A lower interest cost due to the ongoing debt restructuring exercise and stable depreciation cost helped the company to report a 390% growth in the net profit, which stood at Rs23.4 crore.
- The company has declared a dividend of Rs1.8 per share and the board has also approved the financial restructuring of the company. A holder of 100 shares in Ceat would be getting 75 shares of the company and 25 shares of the new investment company. We believe that this is a positive move and would lead to greater unlocking of value for the shareholders. The sale of part of the property at its Bhandup plant is expected to be finalised by Q2FY2008, and is expected to fetch the company about Rs80-100 crore.
- At the current market price of Rs137, the stock is trading at 8.2x its FY2008E earnings and at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 4x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the sock with a price target of Rs190.
Price target: Under review
Current market price: Rs217
Q4FY2007 results—first cut analysis
- Cipla reported lower than expected results for Q4FY2007 with a net profit of Rs125.7 crore against the expectation of Rs199.6 crore. The earnings have been lower due to the disappointing exports of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and significant contraction in the operating profit margin (OPM).
- The revenues were marginally higher by 6.3% to Rs938.5 crore. The sales growth was lower due to a 27% decline in the API exports to Rs141.46 crore mainly on account of higher sales to the regulated markets in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Also, the formulation exports moderated to 16.8% during the quarter to Rs387.87 crore. The exports growth was the cause for concern during the quarter. However, the only cushion was that the domestic formulation business reported a 14.4% growth to Rs399.70 crore, which was slightly better than the industry's.
- The OPM witnessed a 590-basis-point decline to 15.7% in the quarter. The contraction in the margin was due to a change in the product mix (higher volume of anti-retrovirals where the margins are low) and lower API sales to the regulated markets. Also, a higher other expenditure due to higher factory overhead, selling expenses, professional fees etc affected the margins. Consequently, the operating profit stood at Rs147.0 crore, down by 22.8%.
- Subsequently, the other income was lower by 40%, depreciation higher by 4.3% and the tax incidence up from 4.0% to 11.3%, resulting in a 40.3% decline in the net profit to Rs125.7 crore.
- The full-year numbers reported a 19% growth in the top line at Rs3,438.1 crore, as the domestic formulation sales and exports saw a growth of 16.4% and 17.6% respectively. With the increasing share of the low-margin business of anti-retrovirals, the margins remained almost flat at 20% and resulted in a just 9% rise in the net profit to Rs660.8 crore.
- Though Cipla delivers better than industry growth in the domestic market, it struggles hard to maintain the growth in its exports, particularly of its APIs. While the API exports keep fluctuating, the growth of the formulation exports has moderated. Further, with the increased focus of Cipla on the low-margin business of anti-retrovirals, the OPM has been subdued in past couple of quarters. We believe the margin pressure would also sustain going forward.
- Cipla reported disappointing numbers for both Q4FY2007 and FY2007, largely due to the lower than expected performance of the export business and the decline in the margin. Hence, we are reviewing our FY2008 estimate. We shall downgrade the FY2008 estimate and introduce the FY2009 estimate in a detailed note shortly.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs374
Current market price: Rs318
Q4FY2007 results—first-cut analysis
- Corporation Bank's Q4FY2007 results are in line with our expectations; the bank's profit after tax grew by 18.2% year on year (yoy) but declined 19.1% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs118.5 crore compared with our estimate of Rs116.1crore.
- The net interest income was up by 29.6% yoy and 20.9% qoq to Rs403 crore. The FY2007 net interest margin stood at 3.24% compared with 3.15% in M9FY2007 which implies that the bank witnessed a margin expansion during Q4FY2007. However, excluding the one-time interest on the cash reserve ratio balances, the margin appears to have remained stable.
- The non-interest income increased by 21.7% yoy and 1.6% qoq to Rs161.9 crore. The other income excluding treasury was up 23.8% yoy and 25.4% qoq.
- With the net income up 27.2% yoy and the operating expenses up only 11.3% yoy, the operating profit was up by 40.2% yoy to Rs343.2 crore.
- The total business of the bank increased by 27.2% to Rs72,306 crore while the deposits increased by 28.8% to Rs42,357 crore and the advances increased by 25% to Rs29,950 crore. Retail advances were up 17.9% yoy.
- The asset quality of the bank continues to be healthy with stable gross non-performing assets (NPA) at Rs624 crore and net NPA in percentage terms at 0.47%. The capital adequacy remains at a comfortable 12.7%.
- At the current market price of Rs318, the stock is quoting at 7.2x its FY2008E earnings and 1.1x FY2008E book value. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs374.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs508
Current market price: Rs404
Another strong quarter
- Elder Pharmaceuticals (Elder) continued its strong performance during the fourth quarter of FY2007. The company's net sales rose by 26.6% to Rs118.2 crore in Q4FY2007, on the back of a steady momentum in its core brands, a ramp-up in the sales of the Fairone brand due to the launch of the product in south India and the growing revenues from the in-licenced portfolio. The sales were in line with our estimate.
- Elder reported a 65-basis-point drop in its operating profit margin (OPM) to 19.6% during the quarter, on account of a 35.8% rise in the other expenditure and a 29.7% increase in the staff cost. The other expenditure was higher on account of the higher selling and promotional expenses incurred for its new launches.
- Consequently, the company's operating profit rose by 25.4% to Rs23.7 crore in Q4FY2007.
- Despite a 26.6% drop in the other income, and an increase in the interest and depreciation costs, Elder's net profit grew by 17.6% to Rs15.0 crore. The net profit was in line with our estimate.
- For FY2007, Elder's revenues grew by 26.1% to Rs447.3 crore. The OPM expanded by 190 basis points to 19%, led by an improvement in the raw material cost, causing the operating profit to rise by 40% to Rs84.8 crore. Despite the increases in the depreciation and interest costs, the net profit showed a robust growth of 54.8% to Rs56.8 crore in FY2007. The net profit growth was aided by the sharp drop in the tax incidence (due to the shift of manufacturing to tax-free zones).
- In view of its strong growth potential, we remain positive on Elder's future growth prospects. At the current market price of Rs404, the stock is quoting at 10.0x its estimated FY2008 earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs508.
Genus Overseas Electronics
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs380
Current market price: Rs293
Price target revised to Rs380
- The Q4FY2007 results of Genus Overseas are ahead of our expectations.
- The net sales for the quarter grew by 35% to Rs152 crore on the back of a strong order book of Rs470 crore at the end of previous quarter. The net profit grew by 58% to Rs12.7 crore.
- The operating profit for the quarter grew by 55% to Rs19.9 crore. The operating profit margin (OPM) for the quarter improved by 170 basis points to 13.1% as against 11.4% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis as the raw material cost as a percentage of sales declined to 73.1% from 77.2%.
- The interest expense for the quarter rose by 34% while the depreciation cost declined by 33% to Rs0.67 crore.
- The order book of the company stood at Rs403 crore (including export orders worth Rs15 crore) at the end of March 2007.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs425
Current market price: Rs316
Price target revised to Rs425
- HCL Technologies (HCL Tech) has reported a revenue growth of 7.6% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 39% year on year (yoy) to Rs1,577.1 crore for the third quarter ended March 2007. This is the third consecutive quarter of close to double-digit sequential growth in revenues (a 9.4% growth in dollar terms) which is far ahead of street expectations. The sequential growth was contributed by a 16.4% growth in the business process outsourcing (BPO) revenues. On the other hand, the infrastructure management service (IMS) and core software service businesses grew at a relatively lower rate of 6.4% and 6.5% respectively, on a sequential basis.
- The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin improved by 115 basis points to 23.3% on a sequential basis, despite the adverse impact of the steep appreciation of the rupee (1.6% appreciation in the average realised exchange rate against the US Dollar). The sequential improvement in the margin was largely aided by the cumulative impact of better realisations (including non-effort based gains), higher utilisation (especially in the BPO business) and a 70-basis-point saving in the selling, general and administration (SG&A) cost as a percentage of sales.
- In terms of segments, the EBITDA margin in all the three business lines improved on a sequential basis. The BPO business reported second consecutive quarter of a robust improvement in the margin, which was up by 360 basis points to 26.5%. The software service and IMS businesses reported an improvement of 85 basis points and 13 basis points respectively.
- The earnings grew at a robust rate of 15.9% qoq and 72.1% yoy to Rs331.8 crore (ahead of our expectation of Rs290 crore and the consensus estimate of a flat or negative growth sequentially, especially after the higher base resulting from the robust performance in the previous two quarters). The growth in the earnings was also aided by the foreign exchange (forex) gains of Rs41.8 crore on the open forward contracts, up from Rs34.7 crore reported in Q2FY2007.
- In terms of operational highlights, the ramp-up in the large deals is beginning to make a material impact on the overall performance. Moreover, the company continues to bag new multi-million, multi-year, multi-service deals and has announced six new deals in Q3—five in the range of $25-50 million each and one worth over $50 million.
- To factor in the higher than expected performance in the past three quarters and the continued traction in the intake of large deals, we have revised upwards the estimates for the FY2007 and FY2008 earnings per share (EPS) by 6.1% and 3.1% respectively. At the current market price the stock trades at 14.9x FY2008 and 12.6x FY2009 estimates. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs425 (17x FY2009E earnings on a diluted equity base).
Price target: Rs1,174
Current market price: Rs1,014
Significant improvement in margins
- HDFC Bank's results have been slightly ahead of expectations with the profit after tax (PAT) reporting a growth of 30.5% to Rs343.6 crore compared with our estimate of Rs336 crore.
- The net interest income (NII) grew by 46.4% year on year (yoy) and 16.6% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs1,082.7 crore. The growth was driven by an average asset growth of 26% and margin expansion of around 35 basis points to 4.35%. The NII has been adjusted for the one-time cash reserve ratio (CRR) interest income of around Rs35 crore received by the bank during the quarter.
- The significant improvement in the net interest margin (NIM) was possible due to higher transactional floats, an increase in the lending rates and a tactical move to temporarily reduce bulk fixed deposits in the quarter due to the high interest rates prevailing then. As a result the bank's current and savings account (CASA) ratio stood at 55% of its deposits during the quarter compared with 50% in FY2007.
- The other income grew by 29.7% yoy and 5.7% qoq largely influenced by a Rs65.6-crore loss reported in the trading income. Losses on the sale & revaluation of investments during the quarter were primarily a result of the marked-to-market loss on the non-statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) investments. The core fee income growth slowed down to 5.8% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis and to 7.5% on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis. However other foreign exchange (forex) and derivatives income grew by 91.2% yoy and 64.7% qoq.
- The operating profit grew by 41.3% yoy and 13.8% qoq to Rs793.2 crore while the core operating profit (operating profit excluding treasury) was up 32.5% yoy and 19.6% qoq to Rs858.8 crore.
- Provisions & contingencies were up 81.9% yoy and 24% qoq to Rs330.3 crore mainly due to a one-time provision of Rs121.1 crore made owing to an increase in the provisioning norms on certain categories of standard assets. Excluding the same the provisions are up by 15.2% yoy and down by 21.5% on qoq.
- The stock has not been among the outperformers recently with concerns over growth and high valuations. The bank added 150 new branches during the H2FY2007, which we feel will take care of its growth in FY2008 and with such stunning improvement in the margins at a time when the sector is witnessing a pressure on the NIM, we feel HDFC Bank deserves its premium valuations. At the current market price of Rs1,014 the stock is quoting at 22.6x FY2008E earnings per share (EPS), 9.4x FY2008E pre-provision profits (PPP) and 3.8x FY2008E book value (BV). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs1,174.
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs220
Current market price: Rs173
Q1 results meet expectations
- Hexaware Technologies (Hexaware) has announced a 10.1% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 50.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in its revenues to Rs264.4 crore for Q1CY2007. This is in line with our expectations and the company's guidance. The sequential growth was aided by the incremental revenues from FocusFrame (FF), which was integrated with effect from the end of November 2006, and this was the first full quarter of consolidated performance.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 10 basis points to 15% on a sequential basis. The margin improved in spite of the additional expenses of around one million dollars related to the professional charges paid for the restructuring of the organisational structure (especially of FF), consolidation of low-margin FF financials and the adverse impact of the rupee appreciation. The significant improvement in the employee utilisation rate (up by 250 basis points to 70.7%) and better average realisation (onsite realisation up by 60 basis points; offshore realisation improved by 150 basis points) more than nullified the negative factors and boosted the overall profitability. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 10.7% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs39.5 crore.
- However, the decline in the other income component and higher tax rate resulted in a relatively lower growth of 4.3% qoq and 35.3% year on year (yoy) in its consolidated earnings to Rs35.2 crore (in line with our estimate of Rs35 crore).
- The revenue growth guidance for Q2 is indicated in the range of 6.5-8.1% to $64-65 million. However, the earnings growth would be adversely affected by the annual salary hikes and visa costs (a cumulative impact of $3.5 million). The guidance of $7-7.2 million implies a decline of 10-12.5% in its earnings in Q2. Moreover, the continued appreciation in the rupee would dent its performance in rupee terms.
- In terms of the operational highlights, the company has added 20 new clients that include two large orders (worth $10 million each) during the quarter. The order intake of $61 million during the quarters is the highest ever reported by the company.
- At the current market price the stock trades at 15.5x CY2007 and 12.2x CY2008 estimated earnings. We maintain Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs220.
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Book Profit
Current market price: Rs230
- Hyderabad Industries Ltd (HIL) has delivered a disappointing performance yet again in Q3FY2007. Lower than expected sales, the company's inability to pass on the costs to the consumers and higher raw material costs affected its performance during the quarter.
- In Q3FY2007, the net sales rose by 4.7% to Rs100 crore. Not only was the company unable to pass on the higher costs to the consumers, but it also faced a lot of competitive pressures, leading to a loss in its market share. The operating margins have come down drastically from 11.7% to 3.5% due to the very high cement prices, as cement is the key raw material. Consequently, the operating profit for the quarter declined by 69% to Rs3.46 crore.
- With all the asbestos majors adding capacity, there is overcapacity in the industry, leading to more competitiveness. This has capped the pricing power of the companies, and they are unable to pass on the impact of the higher raw material costs to the consumers. We expect this scenario would continue to adversely affect the company going forward, and expect the margin pressure to continue as all the players gun for a higher market share.
- At the current levels, the stock discounts its FY2008E earnings by 10x and quotes at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 6x. At these levels, the stock does not look attractive and hence we are closing our recommendation on the stock. We had initiated the stock at a price of Rs163, and the stock has given a return of 41%.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs1,173
Current market price: Rs866
Price target revised to Rs1,173
- ICICI Bank's fourth quarter results have been below expectations. Its profit after tax (PAT) has grown by 4% year on year (yoy) and declined by 9% quarter on quarter (qoq) to Rs825 crore compared with our estimate of Rs1,004 crore. The lower numbers are mainly on account of a lower than expected non-interest income.
- We had expected a much higher non-interest income due to the National Stock Exchange (NSE) stake sale that was likely to fetch around Rs500 crore and a sustained robust fee income growth witnessed during the previous quarters. However, despite the NSE stake sale the total treasury income stood at Rs446 crore adjusted for the marked-to-market loss on the corporate bond portfolio, which implies an insignificant contribution from any other treasury income source. The core fee income was also lower with a sequential growth of only 6% compared with 18% and 15% sequential growth witnessed in the previous two quarters.
- The core operations were in line with expectations. The net interest income was up by 30% yoy and 5% qoq to Rs1,789.7 crore compared with our estimate of Rs1,763 crore. The reported net interest margin (NIM) for Q4FY2007 stood at 2.66% compared with 2.6% in Q3FY2007 and 2.79% in Q4FY2006. However, excluding the one-time cash reserve ratio (CRR) interest of around Rs85 crore we feel there would be a sequential decline of five basis points in the NIM.
- The bank plans to come out with a follow-on public offer (FPO) in the domestic and international markets by June 2007 to raise Rs20,000 crore. We have factored in a dilution of 23.5 crore equity shares at an offer price of Rs850 which will help the bank to raise the desired amount. The huge FPO of Rs20,000 crore would loom large over the bank's return on equity (RoE) for the next couple of years as the RoE is expected to decline from over 13% to 11% in FY2008. The same has affected our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuations for the bank and hence we have reduced our price target for the stock by 4.4% to Rs1,173.
- After the bank announced its results the stock price declined by 7%, factoring in the lower than expected profit numbers and the unexpected announcement of an Rs20,000-crore FPO. We feel the correction in the stock price already captures these negatives and the downside risk is limited. However the upside potential based on the current market price of Rs866 remains at 35%. We continue to remain bullish on ICICI Bank due to the following facts. First, on the operational side, the Sangli Bank merger would add 195 branches, help to increase the low cost deposit base and improve the NIM going forward. Second, the possible listing of the insurance and asset management holding company would help to unlock significant value in the bank's subsidiaries.
- We have upgraded our FY2008E PAT and FY2009E PAT by 1.6% and 1.5% to Rs4,016 crore and Rs5,120 crore respectively. At the current market price of Rs866, the stock is quoting at 19.2x its FY2009E earnings per share (EPS), 8.5x its pre-provision profit (PPP) and 2x FY2009E book value (BV). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with the revised price target of Rs1,173.
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs231
Current market price: Rs171
Price target revised to Rs231
- India Cements' profit after tax (PAT) grew by a mammoth 481% year on year (yoy) to Rs140 crore in the fourth quarter of FY2007. The growth was much higher than expected.
- Though the volumes remained stagnant yoy, the top line grew by 36% yoy to Rs575 crore on the back of a 35% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the realisations.
- On account of strict cost-control measures, the expenditure growth remained muted at 11.2% yoy. Though the selling expenses increased by 27% yoy, the rise was more than offset by the reduction in the power cost and a marginal growth in the raw material cost.
- The operating profit zoomed by 127% yoy to Rs190 crore on account of the company's high leverage to cement prices. The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne expanded by Rs160 on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis to Rs921.
- The interest cost and depreciation provision remained flat at Rs33 crore and Rs19 crore respectively. With the company continuing to enjoy a tax holiday, the PAT ballooned by 481% yoy to Rs140 crore, much higher than expected.
- The company's board has approved its merger with Visaka Cements wherein the company will issue one share for every five shares of Visaka Cements held, diluting its equity by Rs40 crore to Rs260 crore. Visaka Cements enjoys better margins as compared to India Cements. India Cements will also be able to avail of a tax benefit for the Rs330 crore worth of accumulated losses on the books of Visaka Cements.
- India Cements is carrying out a de-bottlenecking exercise at its various facilities at a cost of Rs350 crore which will augment its capacity by 3 million metric tonne (MMT) to 12MMT at the end of FY2009.
- As a result of the price freeze announced by cement manufacturers, we are downgrading our FY2008 earnings estimate by 31% to Rs21.4 per share and introducing our FY2009 earnings per share (EPS) estimate at Rs19.8.
- At the current market price of Rs171 per share, the stock trades at 8x its FY2008 EPS estimate and 8.6x its FY2009 EPS estimate. The enterprise value (EV) per tonne on FY2009 capacity stands at USD92. We thus maintain our Buy recommendation on India Cements with a reduced price target of Rs231 per share.
Indian Hotels Company
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs175
Current market price: Rs139
- Indian Hotels Company Ltd has acquired Hotel Campton Place, San Francisco through its 100% US subsidiary company. The acquisition would be made at a cost of US$60 million (including estimated transaction costs).
- Indian Hotels will acquire Hotel Campton Place in partnership with financial investors. The sale purchase agreement was signed on April 02, 2007 and the transaction closure is scheduled for April 30, 2007. The structure of the deal is yet to be disclosed.
- At the current market price of Rs139 Indian Hotels is quoting at a price/earnings ratio (PER) of 22.5x FY2007E consolidated earnings per share (EPS) of Rs6.2. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs175.
Indo Tech Transformers
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs375
Current market price: Rs325
Price target revised to Rs375
- The Q4FY2007 results of Indo Tech Transformers Ltd (ITTL) are above our expectations.
- The company has reported strong numbers for the fourth quarter. Revenues for the quarter grew by 80% to Rs56.7 crore against our expectations of Rs50 crore on the back of a 26% volume growth and better realisation. The realisation was up an impressive 43% as the realisation per mega voltage ampere (MVA) in Q4 was Rs7.68 lakh against Rs5.38 lakh in Q4FY2006. The net profit grew by a whopping 170% to Rs10.3 crore against our expectations of Rs7.8 crore.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) for the quarter improved by 1,360 basis points to 27.1% as against 13.5% in Q3FY2006, as a result of lower raw material cost and other operational efficiencies. The raw material cost as a percentage of sales declined to 63.3% as compared to 71.5% on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis.
- The interest expense for the quarter stood at Rs0.32 crore, higher by 3.2% on a y-o-y basis, and the depreciation cost for the quarter stood at Rs1.16 crore, higher by 31.8% on a y-o-y basis.
- The order backlog at the end of this quarter stood at Rs148 crore.
- For the full year ended March 2007, the net sales grew by 68% to Rs155.6 crore and the net profit grew by 117% to Rs25.4 crore.
Price target: Rs2,520
Current market price: Rs2,088
Chinks in the armour
- For the fourth quarter of FY2007, the consolidated revenue of Infosys Technologies (Infosys) grew at a tepid rate of 3.2% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 43.8% year on year (yoy) to Rs3,772 crore. The company has not been able to meet the consensus estimate of a 5-6% sequential growth in the revenue and, for the first time, it could not achieve even the lower end of its own guidance. This essentially means that the company, known for its conservatism, couldn't manage even an unexpected 0.8% higher appreciation in the rupee (an average realisation of Rs43.75 against an assumption of Rs44.11).
- The sequential decline of 100 basis points in its operating profit margin (OPM) to 31.7% has been largely contributed by the adverse impact of the appreciation in the rupee, higher selling, general and administration (SG&A) expenses and the sequential decline in the utilisation rate. On the other hand, the 1.7% sequential improvement in the billing rates positively affected the margins.
- The other income more than doubled to Rs119 core (up from Rs59 crore in Q3FY2007) due to significantly higher yield on investments during the quarter. The translation loss was also limited to just Rs5 crore which is quite commendable given the 1.8% appreciation in the rupee and sundry debtors in excess of $500 million.
- Consequently, the consolidated earnings grew at a relatively higher rate of 3.8% to Rs1,020 crore (excluding the tax write-back of Rs124 crore related to overseas locations in earlier years). This is again lower than street expectation of around Rs1,040 crore.
- On the full year basis, the revenue and earnings grew by 45.9% and 51.6% respectively. The OPM declined by 90 basis points to 31.6% in FY2007. However, the jump of 167.6% in the other income component boosted the overall growth in the earnings and resulted in a 100-basis-point improvement in the net margin to 26.8% (excluding one-time items).
- In terms of the FY2008 guidance, the company has been able to meet the street expectations for the growth in dollar terms. It has guided for consolidated revenue of $3.95-4.02 billion (a growth of 28-30%) and an earnings per share (EPS) growth in the range of 25.7-27.7%. However, given the rupee appreciation, the consolidated revenue in rupee terms is guided to grow at a relatively much lower rate of 22.6-24.6% (Rs17,038-17,308 crore). The EPS growth in rupee terms is guided in the range of 20-22% (Rs80.3-81.6) which factors in the adverse impact of the exchange rate fluctuations and around 3% dilution in the equity base during the fourth quarter. The EPS growth guidance is lower than the street expectations.
- The guidance for Q1FY2008 is all the more muted with the earnings guided to remain flat and EPS guided to decline by 1.4% (due to dilution of equity). The consolidated revenues are guided to grow in the range of 3.3-3.7% sequentially.
- We have revised downwards the earnings estimate for FY2008 by around 7% to factor in the dilution of the equity capital and appreciation of the rupee. We maintain the Buy call on the stock with a revised price target of Rs2,520 (24x its FY2009 earnings estimate of Rs105 per share).
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs200
Current market price: Rs154
ITC ties up with Starwood
The speculation over the state of alliance between ITC-Welcomgroup and its international partner Starwood Hotels & Resorts has ended. The two companies have announced a tie-up under which Starwood Hotels & Resorts will bring its premium brand Luxury Collection to India. This new alliance will help ITC to climb up the value chain.
Mahindra & Mahindra
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs1,050
Current market price: Rs711
- Mahindra Renault has made the much-awaited launch of its passenger car Logan. Three variants of the car have been launched—two in the petrol segment and one in the diesel segment.
- The vehicle has been priced aggressively as its petrol version is priced between 4.28 lakh and 5.69 lakh, and its diesel version is priced between Rs5.47 lakh and Rs6.44 lakh.
- Currently, the vehicle is being manufactured at the company's Nasik plant. With the setting up of a new greenfield plant near Chennai by mid-2009, the capacity would be scaled up by 300,000 units. Also, the localisation content would improve from 50% currently to about 80-90%.
- We expect the car to do well in the Indian markets, mainly on account of its pricing. We expect the launch of Logan to have a negative impact on models like Maruti's Esteem, Tata Motors' Indigo, and Hyundai's Getz. The launch of the passenger cars also further diversifies M&M's business model.
- At the current market price of Rs711, the stock discounts its FY2008E consolidated earnings by 10.4x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs1,050.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs63.4
Current market price: Rs55
Margins disappoint, but stay on course!!
- In Q4FY2007 the net revenues of Marico grew by 33% year on year (yoy) to Rs396 crore, as per our estimate. The top line growth was higher in this quarter on account of the full contribution from the acquired brands of Nihar, Manjal, Camelia, Aromatic and Fiancée, and the strong growth of 21% in the focused brand portfolio (organic growth).
- The operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 210 basis points to 10.1% on account of an increase in the selling and administrative expenses, and the other expenses as a percentage of sales. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 10% yoy to Rs40.1 crore. The same was below our estimate.
- The interest cost for Q4FY2007 grew to Rs4.68 crore from Rs2.3 crore in Q4FY2006, on account of the debt taken to achieve inorganic growth.
- The net profit after the extraordinary items grew by 17% yoy to Rs28.1 crore and the earnings per share (EPS) grew to Rs0.47 (share split to Rs1).
- Marico has acquired two brands (Fiancée and HairCode) in Egypt; these will generate revenues of Rs90-95 crore in FY2008. Significantly, these brands provide 15-18% of the profit after tax (PAT) margin against that of 7-7.5% for Marico. This indeed will help Marico expand its OPM next year. Higher advertising spend for new brands would help the company to fuel future growth.
- The Kaya business grew by an impressive 52% yoy to Rs22 crore. It managed to achieve a positive profit before tax (PBT) in the current quarter. The Kaya business broke even on a full-year basis. This is a big positive because going forward the business will be contributing to the bottom line and its higher margin profile will contribute to the margin of Marico. For the full year, revenue from the Kaya business stood at Rs75 crore. Marico plans to open roughly 15-20 new Kaya clinics in FY2008 and wants to concentrate on increasing the utilisation and penetration levels of the Kaya products going forward.
- The stock is trading at attractive valuations of a price/earnings ratio (PER) of 22.8x FY2008E and enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 15.8x FY2008E. We continue to remain bullish on Marico and reiterate a Buy on the stock with a price target of Rs63.4.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs1,050
Current market price: Rs790
Profits impacted due to higher costs
- Maruti Udyog Ltd's (MUL) Q4FY2007 results are ahead of our expectations on the profits front, but below expectations on the operating margins front.
- The net sales for the quarter marked a growth of 35.4% year on year (yoy) led by a volume growth of 30% and a realisation growth of 4.5%.
- On account of higher raw material prices, the losses at the new Manesar plant and higher power and fuel expenses, the operating margins for the quarter declined by 250 basis points to 12.4%. For the quarter under review, the Manesar plant recorded a loss of Rs58.5 crore at the net level.
- However, a higher other income of Rs205 crore and stable depreciation costs saw the company post a net profit growth of 24% to Rs448.6 crore.
- For the year FY2007, the volume growth was 20.1% yoy. The total income grew by 22% to Rs14,654 crore. The operating profit margin (OPM) for the year was stable at 13.6% as compared to 13.5% in FY2006. The profit after tax (PAT) for the year was Rs1,562 crore, registering a growth of 30%.
- The sales volume for H1FY2007 was very low. MUL launched three new products in Q4FY2007. Hence, we do not expect MUL to witness a sharp slowdown in the growth in FY2008. The profitability could be impacted due to rising raw material prices and higher expenditure on account of the new Manesar plant.
- Considering MUL's dominant position in the Indian car market, Suzuki's plans of making India its hub for small cars, and potential of exports, which shall commence in a big way starting FY2009, we maintain our positive view of the company. At the current market price of Rs790, the stock is quoting at 10.7x its FY2009E earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs1,050.
New Delhi Television
Cluster: Emerging Star
Price target: Rs375
Current market price: Rs330
Price target revised to Rs375
With funding tie-ups in place for its much-awaited entry into the general entertainment space New Delhi Television (NDTV) is all set for the big bang launch of its general entertainment channel (GEC) by the end of the year. NDTV Imagine, the subsidiary that would house the entertainment venture, has roped in Sameer Nair, the ex-CEO Star India who is believed to be the best programming brain in Indian general entertainment business, to make NDTV Imagine a success. Mr Nair's entry follows Karan Johar's new association with NDTV's GEC as a creative consultant and an ambassador for the NDTV brand. Mr Johar is on the board of NDTV Imagine with his production house Dharma Productions having a stake in the company.
Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals
Cluster: Emerging Star
Price target: Rs390
Current market price: Rs265
Orchid enters Canada
- Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (Orchid) has received the approval from the Canadian Therapeutic Product Directorate for two of its abbreviated new drug submission (ANDS)—Cefoxitin and Ceftriaxone.
- These approvals mark Orchid's foray into the Canadian formulation market.
- Both Cefoxitin and Ceftriaxone are niche injectable products and have been generic for a couple of years. The size of the Canadian market for Cefoxitin is $5 million and that for Ceftriaxone is $30 million.
- As per company sources, Ceftriaxone has five competitors (Roche, Mayne Pharma, Sandoz, Nova Pharma and Pharmaceutical Partners of Canada Inc) while there is no generic competition for Cefoxitin.
- As per our back-of-the-envelop calculation, the product approval would add Rs0.4 per share to the FY2008 earnings.
- At the current market price of Rs265, Orchid is trading at 10.2x its FY2008E earnings. In view of the company's strong fundamentals and an improving balance sheet we remain positive on the stock and maintain our Buy call with a price target of Rs390.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs558
Current market price: Rs370
Q1 results marginally below expectations
- Ranbaxy Laboratories (Ranbaxy) reported a 78.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in its earnings to Rs127.60 crore for the first quarter ended March 2007. The same was marginally below our expectations of Rs131.52 crore.
- But the revenues, which were up by 23% to Rs1,553.50 crore, were better than our expectation of Rs1,437.16 crore. The revenue growth was largely driven by the consolidation of Terapia which resulted in a 78% jump in the European business. The CIS countries showed a 61% growth whereas the Asia Pacific and Middle Eastern markets witnessed a 34% growth. The point worth noting is that the domestic business reported a 26% growth which was way ahead of the industry growth of about 9-10% during the quarter.
- The OPM witnessed a 150-basis-point expansion to 10.4% over the corresponding previous quarter but was down by 60 basis points sequentially. The pricing issues in the USA and EU continued to hit the margin during the quarter. However, the company reported a 43.3% growth in the operating profit to Rs162.2 crore
- During the quarter, the depreciation cost was up by 30% and the tax incidence increased to 21.6% from 15.8%. Thanks to a forex gain of Rs55 crore, the net profit grew by 78.7% to Rs127.60 crore in Q1CY2007.
Satyam Computer Services
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs560
Current market price: Rs485
Price target revised to Rs560
- Satyam Computer Services (Satyam) reported a revenue growth of 7.1% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 35.4% year on year (yoy) to Rs1,779 crore during the fourth quarter of FY2007. The revenue growth was higher than expected and driven by a healthy volume growth of 9.5% on a sequential basis. On the other hand, the 1.7% appreciation in the rupee limited the sequential growth in the revenues during the quarter.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 162 basis points to 23.1% on a sequential basis, largely due to the adverse impact of the charges related to restricted stock units (RSU; impact of 90 basis points), higher personnel cost (bonus) and the rupee appreciation. It was partly mitigated by a 64-basis-point saving in the selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses as a percentage of sales. Thus, the operating profit was flat at Rs410 crore on a sequential basis.
- However, the earnings growth was boosted by the jump in the other income component to Rs70.4 crore (up from Rs10.1 crore in Q3) as the company accrued better yield on investments and reported a foreign exchange (forex) gain of Rs3.8 crore as compared to a forex fluctuation loss of Rs35.5 crore in Q3FY2007. Consequently, the consolidated earnings grew by 16.7% qoq and 38.3% yoy to Rs393.6 crore, which is much ahead of the consensus estimate of around Rs358 crore.
- On a full year basis, the consolidated revenues and earnings have grown by 35.3% to Rs6,485 crore and by 43.1% to Rs1,404.8 crore respectively. The OPM has declined by 60 basis points to 23.7% which is in line with the company's guidance.
- In terms of the guidance for FY2008, the consolidated revenues and earnings are guided to grow at a healthy rate in the range of 28-30% and 27-29% respectively, in dollar terms. The growth in rupee terms would be dented by the 600-basis-point appreciation in the rupee (an exchange rate of Rs42.3 per US Dollar assumed in the guidance), resulting in revenue and earnings growth of 20-22% and 18-20% respectively. What's heartening and has come as a positive surprise is that the management expects to maintain its margins in FY2008, in spite of the wage inflation, rupee appreciation and additional expenses related to RSUs. On the flip side, the growth guidance for Q1FY2008 is quite subdued and indicates a flat or a marginal decline in the earnings.
- We have revised upwards our FY2008 earnings estimate by 4% and introduced our FY2009 estimate. At the current price the stock trades at 18.6x FY2008 and 15.6x FY2009 estimated earnings (including the non-cash charges for the stock options). We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a revised price target of Rs560 (18x FY2009 earnings estimates).
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs406
Current market price: Rs379
- SKF India's Q1CY2007 results are ahead of our estimates because of a strong improvement in its margins. The net sales for the quarter have risen by 21.6% to Rs359.8 crore.
- The margin improvement during the quarter was a positive surprise. We believe that the margin growth is a result of improved product mix, lesser contribution of the direct customer delivery (DCD) business and better utilisation of the new capacities.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) jumped up by 450 basis points to 16.8% during the quarter. Consequently, the OPM has improved by 450 basis points as the operating profit jumped up by 65.7% to Rs60.5 crore.
- A higher interest income and stable depreciation helped the company to post a profit growth of 62.8% to Rs36.7 crore.
- The capacity expansion plans of the company are on schedule. It would also be spending close to Rs150 crore to set up a plant in Uttarakhand. The company would also de-risk its business model going forward, by reducing its dependence on bearings, which currently contribute almost 90% of its sales. In the next three-four years, this proportion is expected to decline to 80%, while the contribution of the other business segments, namely seals, mechanotronics, and services would reach 20%.
- At the current levels, the stock quotes at 12.2x its CY2008E earnings and at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 6.5x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs406.
South East Asia Marine Engineering & Construction
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs300
Current market price: Rs205
ONGC contract boosts Q1 performance
- South East Asia Marine Engineering & Construction (SEAMEC) has reported a 107.9% growth in its revenues to Rs56.1 crore for the first quarter ended March 2007. The growth was higher than expectation due to the two-month extension of the contract from Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC; with relatively high day rates) for one of its vessels.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) slipped from 61.3% to 48.2% primarily due to the incremental cost related to SEAMEC Princess (the fourth vessel that is undergoing modification and that didn't contribute to revenues in Q1). This coupled with the general wage inflation resulted in a four-fold jump in the staff cost to Rs20.2 crore as compared with Rs5.2 crore in Q1CY2006. Consequently, the earnings grew at a relatively lower rate of 61.2% to Rs24.4 crore.
- In terms of the outlook on charter rates, the company expects the day rates to remain firm on the back of the favourable demand environment. Even after the anticipated addition of multi-support vessels (MSVs) by some of the Indian companies (like Great Offshore) there would be a shortage of MSVs in the coming years due to the huge requirement to set up the required infrastructure to transport hydrocarbons produced from the large offshore fields discovered in India over the past few years.
- To factor in the robust performance of Q1 and the higher than expected dry docking expenses indicated by the management, we are revising downwards the CY2007 earnings estimates by 4.9% but maintaining the CY2008 earnings estimates.
- At the current market price the stock trades at 8.8x CY2007 and 5.8x CY2008 estimated earnings. We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs300.
Tata Consultancy Services
Price target: Rs1,508
Current market price: Rs1,250
- Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has reported a growth of 5.9% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 38.2% year on year (yoy) in its consolidated revenues to Rs5,146.4 crore during Q4FY2007. The sequential revenue growth was largely driven by a 6.42% growth in the volumes and a cummulative growth of 1.33% in the billing rates (0.89%) and employee productivity (0.44%). On the other hand, the appreciation of the rupee adversely affected the revenue growth by 1.87% sequentially.
- The earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margin declined by 47 basis points to 25.6% sequentially, largely due to the adverse impact of the rupee's appreciation.
- The other income stood at Rs89.8 crore and included a one-time extraordinary income of Rs66.3 crore from the sale of the stake in Sitel. Excluding the one-time income (adjusted for tax), the consolidated earnings have grown at a disappointing rate of 1.1% qoq to Rs1,116.8 crore, which is much lower than the consensus estimate of around Rs1,185 crore.
- In terms of the outlook, the company doesn't give any specific growth guidance. However, it has indicated that the demand environment continues to be robust and the gross employee addition would be higher than 32,462 reported in FY2007 (12,000 campus offers have been made). The TCS management also expects to maintain the margins around the level of 25% reported in FY2007, in spite of the aggressive salary hikes in FY2008 (13-15% for the offshore employees and 3-5% for the onsite employees).
- The key operational highlights for Q4 are: an addition of 43 clients; a healthy sequential growth of 9.3% in revenues from the Top 10 clients; the attrition rate in the information technology service sector at a comfortable level of 10.6%; closure of two large deals worth over $50 million each and one deal of $35 million; and a healthy pipeline of large deals. On the flip side, there has been a slowdown in the sequential growth of revenues from the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) and manufacturing industry verticals.
- Given the lower than expected performance and the steep appreciation in the rupee, we have revised down our FY2008 earnings estimate by 0.5% and have also introduced the FY2009 estimates. We maintain the Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs1,508 (around 23x FY2009 earnings per share).
Cluster: Emerging Star
Price target: Rs385
Current market price: Rs325
Price target revised to Rs385
- Tata Elxsi has reported a robust growth of 10.8% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 25.6% year on year (yoy) in its revenues to Rs89.1 crore for Q4FY2007. The growth was contributed by a 6.6% sequential growth in the software service (SS) business while the system integration (SI) business showed an exponential jump of 35.7% qoq to Rs15.7 crore. The fourth quarter generally tends to be strong for the SI business.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) improved by 160 basis points to 24.3% (the highest ever) on a sequential basis. The margin improvement was boosted by the steep improvement in the profitability of the SI business (margins doubled from 13.7% to 29.5%). On the other hand, the segmental margins of the SS business declined by 190 basis points sequentially.
- Consequently, the company was able to report a double-digit sequential growth in its earnings for the third consecutive quarter. Its earnings grew by 14.8% qoq and 38.8% yoy to Rs16 crore, ahead of our expectations.
- On a full year basis, the revenues grew by 30.7% to Rs308 crore (slightly higher than our estimate of Rs304 crore). The OPM improved by 260 basis points to 22.4%, resulting in a 51.8% growth in the earnings to Rs52.1 crore.
- The company has given a healthy dividend of 70% (or Rs7 per share) in line with our expectations, amounting to a dividend yield of 2.1% at the current market price.
- To factor in the better than anticipated performance, we have revised upwards the earnings estimate for FY2008 by 9.4% to Rs21.4 per share and introduced our FY2009 estimate. At the current market price the stock trades at 15.2x FY2008 and 12.3x FY2009 estimated earnings. We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a revised price target of Rs385 (14.5x FY2009 earnings).
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Under review
Current market price: Rs774
Upside from stake in Glacèau
According to Reuters, Coca-Cola Co is in talks to acquire all or part of the vitamin water maker Energy Brands Inc (EBI), valuing the company at about $3 billion. It may be recalled that Tata Tea Ltd (TTL) and Tata Sons Ltd (TSL) have together acquired a 30% stake in EBI for $677 million or Rs3,110 crore, ie at a valuation of $2.2 billion.
Cluster: Emerging Star
Price target: Rs575
Current market price: Rs465
Robust growth continues
- UTI Bank's Q4FY2007 profit after tax (PAT) was better than our expectations at Rs211.9 crore, up 39.6% year on year (yoy) compared to our estimate of Rs186.2 crore mainly due to a higher than expected net income and lower operating expenses during the quarter.
- The net interest income (NII) was up by 48.4% to Rs464.2 crore compared to our estimate of Rs435.9 crore. UTI Bank's reported net interest margins (NIMs) expanded by 10 basis points yoy and by 6 basis points quarter on quarter (qoq). However the same included a one-time cash reserve ratio (CRR) interest of around Rs22 crore received during the quarter otherwise the NIMs would have had a downward bias on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis.
- The non-interest income was up 32% yoy and 8% qoq to Rs301.1 crore and the fee income growth remained robust at 58.8% yoy and 29% qoq. However the treasury income declined by 34.3% yoy and 46% qoq.
- The operating expenses grew in line with the overall business growth; however the provisions were up 56.3% yoy and 40% qoq mainly due to the increased provisioning requirement on the standard assets for Rs68.1 crore, which is a one-off item.
- Although UTI Bank has grown at a robust pace in the last couple of years there are no visible signs in the deterioration of its asset quality yet. The net non-performing asset (NPA) level (as a percentage of its net customer assets) improved to 0.61% from 0.68% in Q3FY2007.
- Currently the bank's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) is at 11.57% with Tier-I at 6.42%. The bank has also aggressively raised its hybrid capital and has left itself very little headroom to grow its balance sheet. The bank plans to come out with a follow-on offer in FY2008 to boost its CAR. We have factored in an equity dilution of 3.6 crore shares (12.8%) of the pre-issue equity capital at an issue price of Rs500 per share.
- The bank opened 80 new branches during the quarter. Its deposits grew by 46.5% to Rs58,785.6 crore of which savings and current deposits grew by 50.3% and 41.8% respectively. The current and savings account (CASA) ratio remained stable on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis but improved on a q-o-q basis to 40% from 37.1% reported in Q3FY2007 mainly due to an increase in the current account deposits, which as a proportion of deposits increased from 16.6% in Q3FY2007 to 19.2% in Q4FY2007. Advances reported a strong growth of 65.3% to Rs36,876 crore of which the retail advances were up by 37.6% to Rs8,928 crore. However on a q-o-q basis the retail advances have declined by 2.7% mainly due to a sell down in the personal loan portfolio.
- The actual PAT for FY2007 was 4% above our estimates at Rs659 crore and we have upgraded our FY2008 numbers by 4.8% to Rs851.1 crore mainly on account of lower operating expenses estimated for FY2008. At the current market price of Rs465 the stock is quoting at 17.4x its FY2008E earnings per share (EPS), 8.5x its FY2008E pre-provisioning profits (PPP) and 2.5x its FY2008E book value (BV). We feel the dilution would be book value accretive and maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs575.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs708
Current market price: Rs580
Price target revised to Rs708
- Wipro's global information technology (IT) service business reported a growth of 5.1% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 32.6% year on year (yoy) to Rs3,035.7 crore (under US GAAP) for Q4FY2007. The numbers are largely in line with our expectations. In dollar terms, the revenues grew at a reasonably healthy rate of 7.8% sequentially to $690.7 million, which was contributed by a 7.4% growth in the IT service business and an 11.3% growth in the business process outsourcing (BPO) business. The sequential growth in the IT service business was driven by a volume growth of 5.4% and an improvement of 2% in the average realisations. On the other hand, the sequential growth in the BPO business was purely driven by a 13.9% improvement in the average realisation with a decline of 1.4% in the volumes.
- In terms of its operating profit margin (OPM), the adverse impact of wage hikes (a 3-4% hike to the onsite employees with effect from January 2007; a net impact of 60 basis points) and the rupee appreciation (a negative impact of 80 basis points) was partially mitigated by the smart improvement in realisation (in both the IT service and BPO businesses), an improvement in employee utilisation, lower losses in the acquired entities and other cost efficiencies. This resulted in a net impact of 20-basis-point sequential decline in the OPM (to 23.5%) of the global IT service business.
- On the flip side, the revenue growth guidance of $711 million implies a muted sequential growth below 3% in the revenues of the global IT service business during Q1. In fact, given the appreciation of the rupee, the growth in rupee terms could be flat or even negative during Q1FY2008. However, the first quarter tends to be generally slow for the company and doesn't reflect the robust demand environment and strong visibility of its revenue growth.
- In addition to a decent growth in the global IT service business, the robust sequential growth of 15.8% in the Indian IT service business enabled the company to report a healthy growth of 9.3% qoq and 42% yoy in its consolidated revenues to Rs4,334.5 crore. The OPM declined by 50 basis points to 18.9% largely due to higher sales, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses, resulting in a relatively lower growth of 6.2% qoq in its consolidated earnings to Rs791.4 crore (after adjusting for the tax write-back of Rs70 crore) during the quarter.
- We have slightly revised down the FY2008 earnings estimates to factor in the lower exchange rate and introduced the FY2009 earnings estimates. At the current market price the scrip trades at 23.5x FY2008 and 18.8x FY2009 estimated earnings. We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs708 (23x FY2009E earnings).
Monetary policy review
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept the key interest rates, like the reverse repo rate, the repo rate and the bank rate, as well as the cash reserve ratio (CRR) unchanged in its Annual Monetary Policy for the year 2007-08. The policy is in line with our expectations. It continues to remain focused on maintaining price stability and anchoring inflation. However the importance of growth is once again visible in the RBI's statements and that is the key positive takeaway from this policy. The salient features of the policy are given below.
- The reverse repo rate and the repo rate have been kept unchanged at 6% and 7.75% respectively.
- The bank rate has been kept unchanged at 6%.
- The CRR has been kept unchanged at 6.5%.
- The risk weightage on residential housing loans has been reduced to 50% from 75% for home loans up to Rs20 lakh.
- The non-resident Indian deposit rate on foreign currency non-resident bank deposits and non-resident (external) rupee account deposits has been reduced by 50 basis points as per expectations. However the apex bank has made capital account outflows more relaxed for all categories, from corporates to individuals.
Q4FY2007 earnings preview
- The Sensex earnings are expected to grow by 37% year on year (yoy) for Q4FY2007. However, excluding oil the earnings are expected to grow by 34% driven by the earnings in the software, cement and banking sectors. These three sectors are expected to contribute 42% of the Q4FY2007 Sensex earnings excluding oil. On a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis the expected growth is only 1.2%, which indicates expectations of some slowdown in the earnings momentum.
- Strong earnings growth is expected in the pharma sector mainly due to a very low base. On the other hand information technology (IT) earnings will be affected due to the sharp appreciation in the rupee. Auto numbers are not expected to be great due to margin pressure and a slowdown in the volumes.
- Strong year-on-year (y-o-y) earnings growth is expected from Reliance Communications, Bharti Tele, Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Grasim and Tata Steel.
- Two-wheeler majors Hero Honda and Bajaj Auto are expected to report a y-o-y decline in the profits.
- Some of the non-Sensex companies where high growth is expected are Dabur Pharma, Syndicate Bank, Polaris and India Cements.
- In the absence of any major surprises, the fourth quarter results of the Indian companies may not be a trigger for the market, but the market will keenly await the guidance on the FY2008 prospects of the corporate sectors, especially automobiles, banks and the other interest rate sensitive sectors.
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Government cuts CVD on cement imports
- The government on Tuesday scrapped the 16% countervailing duty (CVD) as well as the 4% additional duty on cement imports into the country, which is a sequel to the import duty cut in January (refer to our note dated January 23, 2007).
- With this move, the import parity price, which acts as a pricing benchmark for the domestic prices, will come down from Rs245-255 per bag to Rs210-215 per bag.
- The government has also expressed a possibility of a roll-back of the excise duty hike affected in the budget. If that happens, then the retail prices will come down to Rs210-215 per bag in line with the import prices.
For the front-line information technology (IT) companies, it is likely to be a tough year in terms of margin pressure due to the cumulative impact of wage inflation, higher visa costs and the appreciation of the rupee. Given the tightening supply of quality manpower, the salary hikes are indicated to be aggressive this year too. The average hikes are estimated to be in the range of 13-15% for offshore employees and 4-5% for the onsite workforce. This would translate into an adverse impact of 250-350 basis points on the operating margins. The abnormally high demand for visas this year (application window was closed on the first day itself) would result in higher visa costs.
To factor in a much higher than expected appreciation in the rupee, we have revised downwards the earnings estimates and accordingly the target prices of the front-line IT service companies.
Allcargo Global Logistics
Interesting times ahead
Allcargo Global Logistics (Allcargo) had hosted an analyst meet on Tuesday (April 24, 2007) to discuss its Q1CY2007 performance. We attended the same and present the key takeaways.
Infrastructure Development and Finance Company
Plans to raise equity capital
Infrastructure Development and Finance Company (IDFC) was established in 1997 sponsored by the Government of India, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Infrastructure Development Bank of India as a private sector enterprise with the sole objective of promoting infrastructure financing. The company's future plans are based on the four-by-four strategy. It would pursue four objectives (profitability, balance sheet expansion, innovation and thought leadership) focus on four sectors (transport, energy, telecom and industrial/commercial infrastructure), its portfolio would comprise four products (treasury/structured products, equity/asset management, project finance and advisory) and it would also like to explore four frontiers (urban services, rural infrastructure, health and education).
We expect Macmillan India to grow at the rate of 15-20% in the next two years. The competitive landscape is undergoing a change as more and more players are getting into this segment. Moreover, significant investments in 2007 in the book and ad design business will affect the company's profitability this year, but we believe that these investments will help in boosting the top line as well as the bottom line in the future.
Phoenix Mills Ltd (PML), promoted by the Atul Ruia group, has pioneered the concept of developing mill land (of defunct mills) into shopping-cum-entertainment-cum