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Thursday, April 19, 2007

Motilal Oswal - Derivatives, Daily Margin, Corporate News, Market Diary, Market Action - Apr 19


Daily Margin

Corporate News

Market Diary

Market Action

Emkay - HCL Technologies

Emkay - HCL Technologies

Sharekhan Eagle Eye (equities) & Derivatives Info Kit for April 20, 2007

Sharekhan Eagle Eye (equities) & Derivatives Info Kit for April 20, 2007

JP Morgan - Indian Financial Services


JP Morgan - Indian Financial Services

Deutsche Bank - Karnataka Bank

Deutsche Bank - Karnataka Bank

Anand Rathi - Quick Pick - BOC


Anand Rathi - Quick Pick - BOC

SSKI - Trend Watch

SSKI - Trend Watch

Prabhudas Lilladher - Tata Steel

Prabhudas Lilladher - Tata Steel

Anand Rathi - Essel Propack

Anand Rathi - Essel Propack

Citigroup - ACC

Citigroup - ACC

Citigroup - Asian Drivers - Country Focus

Citigroup - Asian Drivers - Country Focus

Reliance Money - Market Wrap

Reliance Money - Market Wrap

Market Close: Asian Air blows India off...

Sell off in Asia on fear of rates hike concerns in China its market tumble by 4.5% due to signals of overheating in the economy with Chinese's GDP numbers which was marginally above expectation this lead to tightening in rates. With this extreme negative cue Indian indices slipped to start of in red. Technology and Metal stocks were the hardest hit counters in the opening trade. Market continued to trade in red on account of continuous selling pressure in IT, Capital goods and Auto sector. Buying in Banking and select heavyweights helped the index recover losses made in the earlier session as investors got an opportunity to buying at the lower levels. Indian markets showed some significant recovery to close down by 50 points. Reliance Inds rallied helping Indian Market to recover. Small cap and Midcap stocks were not exceptional today even these stocks saw selling pressure.

Sensex ended down by 52 points at 13620. Weighing on the Sensex were losses in ACC (788,-3.5 percent), Satyam (445.5,-3 percent), Bajaj Auto (2437,-2 percent), HDFC (1560,-2 percent) and BHEL (2499.05,-2 percent). Losses were restricted by gains in ITC (158.7,+1 percent), SBI (1045.5,+1 percent), Guj Ambuja (114,+1 percent), Hero Honda (650.85,+0 percent) and Ranbaxy (341,+0 percent).

Advanta debuted today at Rs 640. Advanta India is an international agronomic seed company with principal operations in India, Australia, Thailand and Argentina, and a subsidiary of United Phosphorus. Advanta had fixed the Issue Price for its initial public offering of 3,380,000 Equity Shares of Rs 10 for cash at a premium that was decided through the 100% Book-Building Process at Rs 640 per equity share. The Price Band for the Issue was fixed between Rs 600 and Rs 650 per equity share. The subscription to the Issue closed on March 30, 2007, and the Issue was subscribed 3.98 times. The Issue received good response from Qualified Institutional Buyers ('QIB') and the QIB portion was subscribed 6.47 times withover 1.31 crore shares bid against reserve portion of 20.28 lakh shares. The stock opens out below the issue price in the opening trade but managed to end up with 33% premium for the first day.

Tyre stocks started rolling and ended in green after India?s largest tyre manufacturer MRF Ltd announced its quarterly numbers today. Net sales for the quarter stood at Rs. 1237 cr against Rs. 995 cr in the same quarter previous year. The topline grew by 23% on yearly comparison. The bottom line of the company stood at Rs. 36 cr against Rs. 6 cr in the same quarter previous year. The EBIDTA margins for the quarter was at Rs. 101 cr up by 85% on yearly basis. Out of the total growth 35% of the growth was contributed because of hike in prices while the remaining was due increase in volume. The rubber prices at present are around Rs 90 per kg and the price of other important inputs are expected to be higher on the back of volatile crude. Company also informed that there are plans to increase prices by 3% to 5% across various product categories in order to maintain bottom line in the coming quarters. MRF ended the 6% higher for the day.

Technically Speaking: Volatile would be the right word to describe the market today. Sensex made an intra day high of 13658 and low of 13423. Overall breadth was in favor of Declines, where the Advances were 1179 against Decliners of 1341. Sensex has closed in the last gap formed between 13400 and 13480, and moved up again. This shows strength and once Sensex moves above 13700, bulls are likely to have an upper hand and could open up the target of 14275. Immediate Resistance lies at 13675 and 13800 levels. Support lies at 13475 and 13400 levels. Market Volumes stood at Rs. 3642 Cr.

Motilal Oswal - Results Reports - Apr 2007



Dishman Pharma

Infosys Technologies

HCL Technologies

Tata Consultancy

UTI Bank

ENAM - Jet Airways, Anagram - Pharma Preview, Angel - Infotech Enterprises

ENAM - Jet Airways

Anagram - Pharma Preview

Angel - Infotech Enterprises

Sensex sheds 52 points

The weakness in the global indices made the investors nervous and triggered a sell-off in the domestic market. The market opened on a bearish note at 13539, down 133 points. By mid-morning trades, the Sensex managed to pare some losses and touched an intra-day high of 13658, still down 14 points. However, the index succumbed to the selling in information technology, auto and technology stocks. Some buying at lower levels towards the close saw the Sensex recover a little and end the session with losses of 52 points at 13620 while the Nifty closed at 3998, down 14 points.

The market breadth was weak. Of the 2,591 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,357 stocks declined, 1,151 stocks advanced and 83 stocks ended unchanged. Most of the sectoral indices ended in negative territory. The BSE IT Index was the biggest loser and slipped 1.49% at 4974 followed by the BSE Teck Index (down 0.94% at 3643) and the BSE Auto Index (down 0.69% at 4810). However, the BSE Bankex gained 0.56% at 6849 followed by the BSE FMCG Index (up 0.50% at 1812) and the BSE HC Index (up 0.29% at 3773).

Among the laggards ACC was down 3.51% at Rs788, Satyam Computers declined 2.98% at Rs448, Bajaj Auto shed 2.23% at Rs2,441, BHEL dropped 2% at Rs2,503, HDFC lost 1.91% at Rs1,564 and Infosys fell 1.84% at Rs2,040. However, select heavyweights attracted decent buying support. SBI added 1.72% at Rs1,053, ITC rose 1.24% at Rs159 and Hero Honda gained 1.10% at Rs656.

IT stocks witnessed selling pressure. Wipro dropped 1.25% at Rs579. i-flex Solutions, HCL Technologies and TCS ended with marginal losses.

Over 1.21 crore Tata Teleservices shares changed hands on the BSE followed by IFCI (97.82 lakh shares), Dish TV (81 lakh shares), GV films (67.42 lakh shares) and Advanta (58.85 lakh shares).

Advanta topped the value list with a turnover of Rs503 crore on the BSE followed by Reliance Industries (Rs205 crore), ICRA (Rs177 crore), SBI (Rs94 crore) and Aptech (Rs90 crore).

Idea Cellular

In this article, we shall be looking at various cost components that form a part of Idea Cellular's operating costs and try and find out how they have moved vis-à-vis the revenues of the company over the past few years. The article is structured so as to give the reader an idea of what constitutes a particular cost head, what is its nature and the likely direction of the same going forward. Also to make understanding easy, we have arranged the costs in descending order i.e. a cost that forms the highest component of the total operating expenditure has been discussed first.

Roaming and access charges
The roaming and access charges are paid when an Idea subscriber is utilizing another operator's network to make or receive calls. Thus, Idea pays to the other operators and long distance carriers a pass-through charge and a termination charge (i.e. an Inter Connect Usage charge (IUC)). The IUC is negotiated (within a range) by Idea from operator to operator. This is a variable charge and is directly dependent on the number of its subscribers utilizing other's network. This charge has shown a declining trend as a percentage of revenues over the last three years and is likely to see a downtrend in the near future as the company rolls out its services to more circles. Also having obtained the long distance license, the company will not have to pay charges to long distance carriers.

Subscriber acquisition and servicing expenditure
Subscriber acquisition costs include the cost of SIMs, commissions and discount to dealers, customer verification expenses, collection and telemarketing expenses and expenditures on customer retention and loyalty programmes. This cost is offset in part by a one-time activation fee that is charged to new customers. The cost component, which is partly fixed and partly variable in nature has been growing fairly consistently over the years and has a direct relationship with the growth in operating revenues. However, so far, its been growing at a faster rate than its revenues and given its trend, we don't expect it to subside significantly anytime soon.

Network operating expenditure
The expense head constitutes power and fuel costs, rental payments, annual maintenance charges for network (payable to vendors of equipment like Nokia, Ericsson, and Siemens), network related insurance and other expenses related to mobile network. However, the growth in this cost is on account of the increasing capex that the company has been making over the years. As the company continues to expand into new circles, one can see a rise in this expense. Although, if the company is successful in negotiating favourably its infrastructure sharing contracts, there may be a marginal reduction in the growth of these charges. Further, if it is able to utilise the existing capacity in most optimum manner possible, then this expense as a percentage of sales should come down over the years.

License and WPC charges
The company pays license fees and spectrum usage charges to the Department of Telecommunication (DOT) and the Wireless and Planning Commission wing of the DOT respectively. The spectrum charges are paid as GSM fees and Microwave Royalty, which is calculated as a percentage of the company's annual adjusted gross revenues (AGR). The license fee is also paid as a percentage of AGR and is as follows 10%, 8% and 6% of AGR for Delhi, A, B and C Circles respectively. With companies increasingly tapping rural areas, we believe this cost head to come down as a percentage of revenues going forward.

Personnel expenditure
The personnel expenditure constitutes of salaries, contribution to employee benefit funds, allowances, variable performance pay, recruitment and training costs etc. With the company growing at a frenetic pace, this expense head has gone up in absolute terms but as a percentage of sales has remained fairly constant. As the growth is unlikely to slow down in the medium term, we expect this cost head to remain constant as a percentage of sales. Once the operations become mature, personnel expenditure may stabilise at lower levels.

Advertisement, business promotion and administration expenses
The advertising and business promotion expenses are spent towards brand and product advertising, corporate campaigns, and business promotion. With the company planning to enter new circles, we do not foresee any significant drop in the same as a percentage of sales. Administration expenses are incurred on repairs and maintenance of non-network equipment and buildings, payment of utilities for office, printing and stationery charges, travel and conveyance expenses etc. These expenses seem to be of a fixed nature as they have come down significantly over the years.

As can be inferred from the above analysis, the cost are more evenly spread over numerous costs heads with no single cost head being the source of a majority of the total operating costs. This reduces the vulnerability of the operating profits to an adverse movement in a particular cost head. Further, since operating profit margins have improved over the past few years (up from 26% in FY02 to 37% in FY06) their sensitivity to adverse changes in operating expenditure has reduced building a natural safe guard against such untoward events. While we may be unable to predict operating margins in a precise manner, the risk of going too wrong in our margin assumptions stands considerably reduced.

Despite posting losses, Sensex outperforms key global indices

The barometer index ended with modest losses after plunging sharply in early trades, as buying resumed late at the lower levels. Local bourses were gripped by acute volatility, but at the end were able to outperform their global peers. Weakness around global markets made its way on to the domestic bourses right from the word go.

The 30-share BSE Sensex was down 52.49 points (0.38%), at 13,619.7. It had opened lower, at 13,538.71, and slumped to a low of 13,423.64, tracking weak global markets. However, the barometer index begun retrieving lost ground and had even touched a high of 13,658.11, after buying resumed.

The S&P CNX Nifty declined 13.95 points (0.35%), to 3,997.65.

The market stayed weak as selling continued in the late-afternoon session of trades. However, strong buying began in the late-afternoon, helping the market wipe out the earlier sharp losses.

Global markets underwent a steep correction. All European as well as Asian indices were trading with losses.

The market-breadth, an indication of the market's health, was weak as well. A host of stocks from the smallcap and mid-cap space faltered. For 1,341 stocks that declined on BSE, 1,179 advanced. In morning trade, the breadth was weak, but had recovered to unity. However, the breadth collapsed once again later. A total of 97 scrips have remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap Index settled at 5,652.08 while the BSE Small-Cap Index closed at 6,905.29, both without much of a change.

The BSE cash turnover was Rs 4,158.52 crore while the total market wide turnover was Rs 45893.6 crore.

Among the 30-Sensex pack, 16 advanced while the rest declined.

Cement major ACC was down 4.16% to Rs 782.75, despite reporting a surge of 54.5% in net profit for Q1 March 2007. ACC was the top loser, clocking volumes of 8.07 lakh shares. The cement firm reported a surge in net profit in the March 2007 quarter to Rs 363.75 crore from Rs 235.42 crore in the March 2006 quarter. Net sales surged 26.1% to Rs 1674.83 crore from Rs 1327.52 crore. Firm prices of cement, a key construction commodity, boosted the company's results, which trickled in some time back. The company's board also approved sale and transfer of RMX Business, to ACC Concrete, a new, wholly-owned, subsidiary which has been incorporated for the purpose.

HDFC (down 2% to Rs 1563.50), Bajaj Auto (down 2.08% to Rs 2445), Bhel (down 1.82% to Rs 2507.50) and ONGC (down 1.49% to Rs 892) were the other losers.

Frontline software stocks slipped on profit-booking. The BSE IT Index was the top-loser among sectoral indices. It lost 75 points (1.5%). Infosys (down 1.82% to Rs 2040), Wipro (down 0.38% to Rs 584), Satyam Computers (down 2.56% to Rs 449.80) and TCS (down 0.16% to Rs 1244.95) dropped.

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) gained 0.39% to Rs 1666, on reports that the company had plans for facilities in China. The facilities being planned are for machines, switchgear, valves, tyre-curing and pressing and coal gassification. Larsen & Toubro plans to source the raw material required for forgings and castings for its manufacturing bases in India. Further, the firm is planning an initial investment of $ 11 million to introduce new products in the Chinese market.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 0.24% to Rs 1490, on a volume of 13.87 lakh shares. The scrip had recovered from a low of Rs 1462, and surged to a high of Rs 1499.50, an all-time high. RIL has scheduled a meeting of the board of directors on 26 April 2007, to consider the unaudited financial results for the quarter & year ended March 2007. Also, as per a report in a newspaper, RIL has discovered significant quantities of gas in an offshore block in Saurashtra, Gujarat. RIL is the operator of the block with a 70% stake, while Oil India has the remaining 30% stake.

Gujarat Ambuja Cements was the top-gainer, up 1.81% to Rs 115, on a volume of 17.18 lakh shares.

State-run State Bank of India (SBI) gained 1.70% to Rs 1053, on a volume of 9.05 lakh shares. The state-run lender had surged sharply from a low of Rs 1014, to a high of Rs 1062.40. The Cabinet today approved changes in a banking law to impart greater operational freedom to SBI's subsidiaries, a government spokeswoman said. After the news, shares of three such SBI subsidiaries - State Bank of Mysore (up 10%), State Bank of Travancore (up 5%) and State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur (up 1.49%) advanced. Four other subsidiaries were not listed on the stock exchanges. It may be recalled that in May 2006, the government moved a bill in Parliament proposing the reduction of State Bank of India's stake in its seven subsidiaries to 51% each from the mandated level of 55%. Amendments were also proposed to ease restrictions on fund-raising and individual share ownership. There was also a move to raise the voting rights of investors in SBI's subsidiaries from the existing 1% to 10%.

Helped by SBI and ICICI Bank, the BSE Bankex settled 0.6% higher, at 6,848.85.

Cigarette major ITC advanced 1.24% to Rs 159, on volumes of 15.32 lakh shares.

Auto counter Hero Honda (up 1.10% to Rs 656) and Maruti Udyog (up 1.47% to Rs 779) were the other gainers.

ICICI Bank moved higher by 1.52% to Rs 910.55, and recovered from an initial 2.98% drop to Rs 870.10. According to a news report, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to permit Temasek and the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) to raise their stakes in the private bank to 10% each. Temasek holds 7.41% stake in ICICI Bank and Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC) 2.29%. The two cannot currently buy more shares of ICICI Bank since their combined stake already stands at almost 10%, the limit for a single foreign institutional investor (FII) in one company.

Advanta India settled at a premium, at Rs 850.05, on high volumes of 58.80 lakh shares on BSE. It was listed on BSE at Rs 640, and had retreated sharply to a low of Rs 591, before a U-turn to strike a high of Rs 992.90. Advanta India, a subsidiary of United Phosphorus, had fixed Rs 640 per share as the issue price.

Shares of tyre makers surged after MRF reported a surge of 511.9% in net profit in the March 2007 quarter. MRF surged 6.55% to Rs 3640 on high volumes of 8,887 shares. JK Industries (up 12.70% to Rs 130), CEAT (up 9.83% to Rs 138), and Goodyear India (up 6.26% to Rs 152) advanced. A sharp fall in natural rubber prices also aided the surge in tyre scrips. Tokyo September 2007 rubber futures tumbled by the daily 10-yen limit to 286.9 yen ($2.42) per kg.

MRF's net profit jumped 511.9% to Rs 35.74 crore in Q2 March 2007 from Rs 5.84 crore in Q2 March 2006. Net sales surged 23.1% to Rs 1083.52 crore from Rs 879.60 crore. As per recent reports, tyre makers plan to import some natural rubber this year to ensure adequate supplies and keep a check on domestic prices.

Punj Lloyd rose 1.59% to Rs 185.40, after it won a $ 44.9 million pipeline contract in Qatar. The new contract with extension involves the engineering, procurement and construction of fuel farm, fuel receiving station, jet fuel hydrant system, ground service equipment fuel system, ground service equipment washing system, portable water station and operation office, parking facility for hydrant dispenser vehicles, triturator facility, special fuel system equipment, special systems in building / facilities (BMS/CCTV). The project will be completed by December 2008.

MNC associate bearings manufacturer, SKF India, surged 6.39% to Rs 354.45 on expectations of strong Q1 March 2007 results. It unveils Q1 March 2007 results on 26 April 2007.

Apollo Tyres gained 5.7% to Rs 300.40, after a sharp fall in natural rubber prices, a key raw material in the manufacture of tyres.

Sterling Biotech rose 3.57% to Rs 172.65. It was the fifth-biggest gainer from the 'A' group. The stock rose for the second day in a row. It had risen 16.1% on Wednesday (18 April) to Rs 166.70. The company today reported 25.8% growth in net profit in March 2007 quarter to Rs 38.05 crore (Rs 30.23 crore).

Deccan Aviation jumped 5% to Rs 114.10, on news that the company was close to finalising a deal for raising $75 - 100 million. The company has given a mandate to Edelweiss Capital to raise these funds to finance its fleet expansion, build on-ground infrastructure, and strengthen its training and engineering capabilities. The funds are likely to come from private equity investors, news papers reported on Thursday. The diversified Anil Dhirubhai Ambani group and Texas Pacific Group are among the potential investors.

Kirloskar Brothers lost 1.53% to Rs 363, even as the company bagged an order worth Rs 336 crore. Kirloskar Brothers said on Thursday it had received an extension for the Gandikota Lift Irrigation Scheme and the new project was worth Rs 336 crore.

Network services company, GTL rose 0.37% to Rs 164.70, as its board decided to consider a buy-back of shares on 25 April 2007.

Tata Chemicals gained 2% to Rs 214.80, after the company said on Thursday a tribunal of the central excise had set aside an order of excise commissioner, Haldia, Kolkata, seeking duty and penalty of Rs 557 crore. The tribunal passed its order overruling the excise commissioner's directive on 27 March 2007, the company said in a statement.

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong was down 2.30%, while the Nikkei 225 Index had lost 1.67%.

The Shanghai Composite Index fell 4.52%, to end at 3,449.01, after hitting an intraday low of 3,358.93. It was the biggest daily drop in the index since 27 February 2007, when it fell nearly 9% -- unsettling global markets. Chinese shares plunged with a heavy turnover on Thursday on concerns that the Chinese government may raise interest rates to cool its rapidly growing economy.

Traders noted fears among investors that China's macroeconomic data for March might suggest the economy was overheating, which could prompt a rate hike from its central bank.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter grew 11.1% from a year earlier, compared with a 10.4% annual rise in the fourth quarter of 2006.

The government on Thursday decided to exempt services exports from service tax and boost merchandise exports by fixing a target of $160 billion for 2007-08.

Announcing the annual supplement of the Foreign Trade Policy, Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath said the export target of $125 billion for 2006-07 had been met and the government hoped to achieve $160 billion in the current financial year.

"Besides merchandise exports, the country also exported services worth $76.10 billion," he said.

The government has also extended the popular Duty Entitlement Passbook (DEPB) scheme for exporters till March 2008. A new scheme to replace DEPB would be finalised by then.

According to the Meteorological Department, India's annual June-September monsoon rains are likely to be 95% of the long-term average, as per weather office statement. The monsoon is the main source of water for agriculture in India.

Global crude oil futures rose slightly Wednesday on energy stockpiles report. Light, sweet crude for May delivery added 3 cents to 63.13 US dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for June delivery rose 11 cents to 66.04 dollars a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London. The Energy Department reported on Wednesday that its crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels last week, while its gasoline stockpiles fell 2.7 million barrels.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed at an all-time high on Wednesday, as stronger-than-expected profits from JP Morgan Chase & Co eased on concerns about the impact of the subprime lending crisis on big banks. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 30.80 points, or 0.24%, to close at a record 12,803.84. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 1.02 points, or 0.07%, to finish at 1,472.50. But the Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 6.45 points, or 0.26%, to close at 2,510.50.

FII inflows have picked up after Infosys gave a strong guidance for FY 2008 in dollar terms, setting to rest concerns about the impact of a slowdown in the US on India's IT sector. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 788.30 crore on Monday (16 April), the day when the Sensex had surged 312 points in a global rally. They were net buyers to the tune of Rs 648.50 crore on Tuesday (17 April). FII inflows for the first few days of April 2007, stand at Rs 3804.30 crore (till 17 April).

As per provisional data, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 465 crore on Wednesday (18 April). Domestic institutional investors were net buyers to the tune of Rs 19 crore on the same day.

Edelweiss - Bartronics - Q4FY07 results above expectations - Maintain Accumulate

Edelweiss - Bartronics - Q4FY07 results above expectations - Maintain Accumulate

ENAM - Infotech Enterprises, Dalal & Broacha - Infotech Enterprises

ENAM - Infotech Enterprises

Dalal & Broacha - Infotech Enterprises

Sharekhan High Noon & Commodities

Sharekhan Commodities Buzz dated April 19, 2007

Sharekhan Highnoon dated April 19, 2007

Edelweiss - Event update: HOV Services acquires Lason (Analyst meet) - Maintain Sell

Edelweiss - Event update: HOV Services acquires Lason (Analyst meet) - Maintain Sell

Kotak - India Daily: New Release - Dish TV: Initiating coverage with an OPrating; A tasty dish if cooked well

Kotak - India Daily: New Release - Dish TV: Initiating coverage with an OPrating; A tasty dish if cooked well

Edelweiss - UTI Bank - strong operating metrics; result update Q4FY07; maintain Buy

UTI Bank (UTIB IN, INR 465, maintain Buy)


UTI Bank's Q4FY07 performance was slightly ahead of expectations due to higher fee income growth. Pre-provisioning operating profit growth of 63% Y-o-Y was in line with expectations. Net profit grew by 40% Y-o-Y to INR 2.12 bn, slightly higher than expectations. For FY07, net profit grew by 36% Y-o-Y to INR 6.6 bn and NII grew by 45% Y-o-Y.


Key highlights of the quarter were:

(1)   Net interest margins improved sequentially to 3.06% from 3.0%

(2)   Fee income grew 59% Y-o-Y.

(3)   CASA improved to 40% in March 2007 from 37% in December 2007.

(4)   Advances grew by 65% Y-o-Y to INR 369 bn.

(5)   Provisions were higher on account of increased standard asset provisioning and higher investment depreciation.

(6)   The bank opened 80 branches and extension counters during this quarter.


We maintain our FY09E EPS at INR 34.7, and introduce equity dilution in FY08, which leads to reduction in FY08E EPS by 8% to INR 26.6. We are revising our fee growth estimate upwards by 4% and 9% for FY08 and FY09 and increasing operating expenses by 4.8% and 7.2% for FY08 and FY09 respectively. We are introducing 15% equity dilution in FY08E. We see mild headwinds for the stock in the near term till the bank appoints a new chief executive (Dr. P.J. Nayak due to retire in July 2007). Also the bank might need to re-brand its business franchise as it would not be using "UTI" brand from FY09 onwards.


We expect the bank to deliver 18-19% RoE and 22% EPS CAGR during FY07-09E.


The stock currently trades at 2.6x FY08E book and 17.5x FY08E earnings. We maintain 'BUY' recommendation.

Download Edelweiss - UTI Bank - strong operating metrics; result update Q4FY07; maintain Buy

Kotak - Market Morning - 19 Apr 2007

Kotak - Market Morning - 19 Apr 2007

Kotak - Derivatives - 19 Apr 2007 & Kotak - Daily Morning Brief - 19 Apr 2007 - Infotech Enterprises

Kotak - Daily Morning Brief - 19 Apr 2007 - Infotech Enterprises

Kotak - Derivatives - 19 Apr 2007

Intraday Stock Ideas

NIFTY (4011.6) SUP 3982 RES 4040

SL 306 T 319, 321

SL 260 T 273, 275

SL 178 T 192, 193

@ 289 SL 293 T 279, 277

@ 171 SL 174 T 161, 159


Weak Asian markets could hurt sentiment

One of the weaknesses of our age is our apparent inability to distinguish our needs from our greeds

When greed took a back seat, the markets skyrocketed ahead too fast too soon leaving most market watchers surprised.But don't despair. Enough opportunities will come your way. The weakness in Asian markets could dampen sentiment at start.

The Dow hit an all-time high ending above 12,800 for the first time ever. The Nasdaq composite was a tad lower.
However, the sitution with the Asian markets is different.

Asian stocks fell after the US dollar weakened against Asian currencies. The yen traded at 118.26 against the dollar while the Won gained to 926.60 to the dollar, set for its highest close since Jan. 3. US light crude oil for May delivery rose 4 cents to settle at $63.14 a barrel. Japan's Nikkei was down over a percent.

Back home, the Indian rupee eased on Wednesday. Reports say oil refiners stepped up dollar purchases and traders pared positions sending the rupee to 42.05/07 per dollar.

Metal stocks may be in action after copper futures in Shanghai rose by the daily limit of 4% to a 10-month high on signs of growing demand for the metal.

If heavyweights like Reliance manage to hold strong, the losses in the indices may be less. Incidentally, Mukesh Ambani celebrates his 50th birthday today and expectations are that the stock will cross the 1500 mark today. Profit booking can be expected at higher levels. Reports say
Reliance Industries has discovered "significant" amounts of gas in an offshore block in Saurashtra.

Reports say Malvika Steel promoter Vinay Rai has objected to the sale of the company. Reports say Rai has moved the Debt Recovery Tribunal, which is auctioning the company to settle the dues that it owes to IFCI.

Essar Global Ltd., agreed to buy Minnesota SteelIndustries LLC for an undisclosed price to add 1.4 billion tons of iron-ore reserves and a steel mill in North America.

NTPC is on a high following its plans to increase its power generation capacity to 50,000 mw by 2012 and 75,000 mw by 2017. At present its capacity is around 26,000 mw.

Banks would have to increase their Tier-I capital by about Rs512.55bn within March 31, 2009, including raising Rs455.21bn from the capital market to meet the Basel-II requirements on minimum capital adequacy of 9 per cent, according to a report.


Consolidation to continue!

Markets managed to close in green as profit booking set in on the bourses in late trades. Auto and Capital Good index were the top draggers, however, Bank's, Pharma, and Technology indexes were the major gainers. Even the Mid-cap and the small cap indexes out performed the frontline index. Tata Steel was badly hit at open but made a come back in the later half of the session. Oil marketing stocks also ended in the receiving end. Finally, the 30-share benchmark Sensex gained 65 points to close at 13672. NSE Nifty was up 26 points to close at 4011.

Tata Steel declined by over 3% to Rs511 after the company announced that they have made rights offer at Rs300 each, to sell 1 share for every 5 shares held to fund corus acquisition. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs519 and a low of Rs472 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,00,000 shares on NSE.

CESC dropped over 3.5% to Rs384. The company announced that they would consider merging with holding company of Spencer's retail, to give 1 share for every 1.98 shares of Spencer's Retail. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs403 and a low of Rs381 and recorded volumes of over 12,00,000 shares on NSE.

Petron Engineering surged by over 5% to Rs148 after the company announced that they have received Letter of Award from Sichuan Fortune Project Management Co. Ltd, China. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs154 and a low of Rs141 and recorded volumes of over 26,000 shares on NSE.

TV Today advanced by over 5% to Rs147 following reports that Reliance Capital may offer to buy an additional 20% of TV Today Network Ltd. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs154 and a low of Rs142 and recorded volumes of over 16,00,000 shares on NSE.

Suzlon jumped by over 3% to Rs1180 after Repower Systems AG, announced that it supports a 1.2bn-euro takeover offer by the company which topped a bid by French atomic-power station builder Areva SA. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1208 and a low of Rs1140 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on NSE.

Cement stocks were a mixed bag. India Cement gained by 1.2% to Rs171 and ACC was up 1% to Rs816. However, Grasim was down by 1.3% to Rs2342.

Oil exploration stocks were on the move. Reliance Industries gained 0.8% to Rs1485 and ONGC surged over 1.3% to Rs905.

Technology stocks also ended higher. Index heavy weight Wipro was up 2% to Rs585 and Satyam Computer gained 1.3% to Rs461. HCL Tech, Mphasis BFL and Polaris were the major gainers among the Mid-Cap stocks. .

Pharma stocks were in pink of health, Sun Pharma surged by over 3.5% to Rs1156, Lupin was up by 0.5% to Rs660, Ranbaxy gained 0.9% to Rs340 and Cipla added 1.6% to Rs233.

The markets bounced back on Wednesday on back of buying at lower levels. However, the bulls are not out of the woods yet as volatility is likely to remain high. We are expecting the market to consolidate further. A lot of other big companies are yet to announce their quarterly earnings. If they hit bull's eye we may see the market rally. Metal stocks would continue to be in action after copper futures in Shanghai rose by the daily limit of 4% to a 10-month high on signs of growing demand for the metal.

Insider Trades:

XL Telecom Limited: Mr.Dinesh Kumar, Managing Director has purchased from open market 89610 equity shares of XL Telecom Limited from 10th to 13th April, 2007.

Market Volumes:

The turnover on NSE was down by 10.5% to Rs86bn. BSE Pharma index was the major gainer and gained 1.56%. BSE PSU index (up 1.40%), BSE Bank index (up 1.07%) and BSE Technology index (up 0.85%) were among the other major gainers. However, BSE Auto index lost 0.45%.

Volume Toppers:

IFCI, Tata Steel, SAIL, TTML, Tele Data Informatics, GTL, ICRA, RNRL, NTPC, RPL, IDEA, IDFC, Bank of India, PFC, Praj Industries, HCl Tech, MTNL, R Com, Sterling Bio, India Cements and IDBI.

Upper Circuit:

RIIL, Tele Data, Aptech, Deep Industries, ACE, Tanla, Country Club and Ganesh Housing

Results Today:

ACC, Bartronics, Biocon, Garware Offshore, Kirloskar Brothers, MRF, Mukta Arts, Mysore Cements, Shiva Cement and Sterling Biotech

Delivery Delight:

Amtek India, Cambridge Solutions, CEAT, Dabur India, GAIL, HCL Technologies, Hero Honda, HDFC, Ipca Lab, Jagran Prakashan, Kesoram Industries, MTNL, Marico, Neyveli Lignite, Sterling Biotech and Suzlon Energy

Abnormal Delivery:

Tata Tea, I-Flex, UTI Bank, ITC, MTNL, Titan, Siemens and Kotak Mahindra Bank

Stock Futures with Largest Increases in OI:

Siemens, Corp Bank, Dabur India, PFC, Chennai Petro, Bongaigaon Refinery, Lupin, Ktk Bank and GSK Pharma

Stock Futures with Largest Decreases in OI:

Bank of India, i-Flex, IVRCL Infra, Essar Oil, Neyveli Lignite, GE Ship, UTI Bank, HCL Tech, IPCL and Can Bank.

Brokers Recommendation:

Garware Offshore – Buy from Emkay with target of Rs286
Sun TV –
Sell from CLSA with target of Rs1408

Long Term investment:

HCL Tech

Results Corner:

Praj Industries Q4 profit at Rs269.9mn (up 158%), sales at Rs2.01bn and approves 1:1 ratio bonus

Major News Headlines:

Valecha Engineering gets orders worth Rs1bn

Deccan Aviation plans to raise as much as USD100mn

GTL Board to consider dividend, share buy back on 25th April

Aptech ties up with Infosys to deliver end user training on its renowned core banking solution Finacle

Infotech Enterprises to pay Rs2.25 per share as dividend

Reliance Capital offers Rs130.5 apiece for TV Today share

India Daily: Results - Tata Consultancy Services, Petronet LNG, Aventis Pharma; Updates - Jet Airways, CESC

Kotak - India Daily: Results - Tata Consultancy Services, Petronet LNG, Aventis Pharma; Updates - Jet Airways, CESC

Asia Pacific Economy

Download Asia Pacific Economy

Anand Rathi - Daily Strategist & Technical Note

The NIFTY futures saw a drop in OI to the tune 0.26% with prices up indicating long positions being built up in the market but at higher levels we saw selling pressure emerging in the market due to profit booking by longs and fresh short positions being built up in the nifty futures .The discount in NIFTY spot and future was around 8 points which was almost same on last day indicating that both bulls and bears were aggressive. The FIIs bought index futures to the tune of 478 crs and index options to the tune of 239 crs indicating hedged positions built by them. The PCR has remained unchanged to 1.12 levels indicating buying support may emerge in the market. The volatility has come down from 24.65 to 23.90 levels indicating some direction may be seen in the market in coming few days.

Among the Big guns, ONGC saw 0.15% rise in OI with prices coming up indicating long positions being built up in the counter indicating strength in the counter whereas RELIANCE saw 4.33% drop in OI with prices rising indicating shorts covering there positions as counter sustaining at higher levels indicating strength in the counter.

In the TECH front, INOFSYSTCH, TCS saw drop in OI to the tune of 0.33 with prices flat to negative indicating profit booking happening in the counter and fresh built up of long positions .SATAYMCOMP & WIPRO saw drop in OI with rise in price indicating short covering seen in the counter and long positions being built up in the counter indicating further strength in the counter.

In the BANKING counters, SBIN, ICICIBANK saw RISE in OI with rise in price indicating long positions built up in the counter and short covering seen in the counter indicating further strength in the counter HDFCBANK saw drop in OI with prices flat to negative indicating short covering seen in the counter.

In the metal pack TATASTEEL saw drop rise in price indicating short positions being built up in the counter and if counter sustains below 500 levels we may see further pressure being built up in the counter ,SAIL saw flat OI with rise in price indicating short covering seen in the counter and fresh buying emerging in the counter .HINDALCO & STER saw drop in OI with rise in price indicating short covering seen in the counter and fresh buying emerging in the counter indicating further strength in these counters

Considering the overall scenario and the markets behavior, market showing volatility as selling pressure emerging at higher levels and profit booking seen in the market. Unless market goes below 3900 levels (nifty futures) we may see fresh buying emerging in the market and shorts covering their positions. Traders are advised not to go aggressively short on the market unless important support level of 3900 is breached and any position taken should be with strict stop losses to be adhered too.

Anand Rathi - Daily Strategist & Technical Note

Edelweiss - Daily Trading Note 19 APR2007 & Edelweiss - Daily Market Outlook 19th April, 07

Edelweiss - Daily Trading Note 19 APR2007

Edelweiss - Daily Market Outlook 19th April, 07

Citigroup - India Macroscope

Citigroup - India Macroscope