The Model Model - Sanjeev Pandiya

All Indian have black and brown eyes. Aishwarya Rai has hazel eyes. Hence, Aishwarya Rai is not Indian.

The above is what in Logic is called a tautology. You can use 'logic' (which is mathematically sound) to come to some strange conclusions, simply by twisting a little part of the 'logical premise'.

Take a look at the first sentence again. If we assume that there are 5,000 people with eyes like Aishwarya's (wow!), then the first sentence is statistically sound, i.e. true for 99.99995 per cent of the Indian population. The use of the word "all" would then be justified, both by the English dictionary and by Statistics.

The subsequent sentence is also an absolute premise, statistically true. Hence, the conclusion logically follows.

I have a peculiar spin to this. So if you have hazel eyes, does that make you Aishwarya Rai? Well, to the extent that her hazel eyes have contributed to making her what she is, maybe yes, you would say. And if not, what else does it take to make/ get someone like that?

The Random Walk Theory says that "stock prices follow a random walk and markets are efficient", implying that it is therefore impossible to beat the market. Prices reflect all available information, thereby preventing anyone from consistently beating the market.

Well, if there are only 100 billionaires from the financial markets at any given point of time, then that is only 100/ 6.42 billion = some tiny percentage of the world population. Superimpose on the above tautology and you will be able to write a book that will become a bestseller, formulate a theory that could be 'universally' true and maybe even win a Nobel Prize for it…

Unless, of course, you ask Aishwarya Rai what she thinks of all this...! My guess is that she will be nonplussed. She will not be able to argue with any of the premises, but will obviously find the conclusion absurd.

Don't look at me like that! I am not pretending to be any Aishwarya Rai of any place, even the stock markets. I only write about these things. I am just the little guy who periodically points out that the king is wearing no clothes, something that is obvious to everyone, if they only stop looking at each other and focus on the king…!

No doubt market beaters are few in number, too busy actually beating the markets to be going around writing books about how to do it, and just not interested in Nobel Prizes. They may represent just a tiny fraction of the actual population operating in markets, but they represent fully 50 per cent of the behaviour patterns seen on markets. One behaviour pattern is that you can't beat markets (a.k.a Random Walkers), and the other behaviour is that you can. Which is why they are more important to markets than Aishwarya Rai is to Indian-ness.

Let us look at this concept called "market efficiency" where market prices are supposed to factor all available information. Everybody thinks "India is shining", hence everyone is buying stocks. I focus on everyone buying stocks, and I don't care whether Indian actually shines or not……

And if everyone is buying stocks, then the supply of (equity) paper will increase and capital (which is in excess supply) will eventually be misallocated, and India will someday stop shining when too much of this capital gets misallocated. I can see this in many stocks, sectors which are 'hot'.

There, I have gone and told you my secret. This new piece of information should now bring down the markets by 50% tomorrow morning and the government will put me in jail for high treason….what?! Say, power stocks are hot. But all this money is going into coal, even as the world gears up to sign the post-Kyoto protocol, where the rich nations will force us to take emission targets. If they don't, we will stupidly eschew new technology, while the world goes carbonless.

Much later, we will find that these new technologies leave us with expensive energy usage, while the world has moved to zero-cost power in wind, wave, tidal, geothermal, etc. Then, we will burn coal to produce aluminium, while they have a smelter in Iceland that imports bauxite from across the Atlantic and is still viable because it operates on free energy.

So now, both NTPC and Hindalco should drop like a stone tomorrow morning, no?!

But no...

This 'insight' is not enough. I not only have to be right about what I just said, but put my money where my mouth is, hold on to this belief for 5-10 years till the FIIs and sundry world travellers are done with India. I have to then pay margin calls while sundry operators manipulate stocks to squeeze the bears, with the excess liquidity easily available today. Not only do I have to believe something that is at odds with the 'market hypothesis', but I have to hang on till the market turns around to reflect (in stock prices) my 'new' hypothesis. In other words, I have to get a serious 'black eye' before I get a hazel one.

The tenacity of this belief system is really the key to beating the market. By definition, that has to be with the minority in the population. Otherwise, India would shine simply by printing Rupees and distributing it among the population; why do you need a stock market for that?

So which Mutual Fund will do that for you? This entire industry lives on misquoting that tautology I have outlined above. If you wear hazel contact lenses, you can be (or get, depending on your preference) Aishwarya Rai, say the dream-sellers. You can laze on the beaches, go to Singapore, retire at 40, send your child to the US, get yourself a facelift or whatever……just gimme your money!!!

What is wrong with all this? The underlying premise that you can't beat the market (which you probably can't, if you are still reading this dumb article) but we can…the implied promise that your money is going to outperform the markets if you give it to us, but will not if you just give it directly to the markets, is where you need to get careful.

Those of you who have the capacity to think about this will do so: efficiency is not about 'information' and it is known from other studies that insiders don't make a lot of extra money ALL the time, there is such a thing called 'insiders bias'. They know about inside information, but they (usually) don't know enough about human behaviour and its quirks, or relative valuation of markets….etc, etc ad infinitum.

So what practical use is this to you? Should you put your money under your mattresses, or should you look for someone who can beat the markets for you. Well, the problem is that if I know how to beat the markets, why would I need your money? So the guys who know how to beat markets, like I said above, are too busy doing it than talking (or writing) about it.

This is terrible, what have I done? So where does all this leave you, and what is the point of wasting precious trees on this garbage? Well, for starters, just understand why you will not be going to Singapore, that alone is worth the time you have wasted reading this. Read the rest of my articles on the behaviours needed to beat markets, learn to stand alone and look stupid for a long time, sometimes lose your shirt trying to hang on to what you think is right, get it right once in a while and hope for the best. In any case, isn't what you were doing when you gave your money to professional money managers?

Weekly Stock Ideas - Feb 17 2008

A lower opening would provide an opportunity to pick up strong fundamental stocks at cheap prices. Among our picks for buying at lower levels for the long term are:

Buy GAIL

Buy NTPC

Buy Tata Motors

Buy GNFC

Buy Punj Lloyd

Via Indiainfoline

Mumbai among Top 5 most expensive office markets

Nariman Point in Mumbai is the world's fourth most expensive location for office occupation, leaving behind the likes of Paris, New York, Singapore and Dubai, according to the 'Office Space Across the World 2008' report by real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield.

Mumbai’s Central Business District (CBD) moved up one place from No.5 in 2006. Nariman Point witnessed annual rental growth of 60%, the report said. The total occupancy cost in Mumbai CBD is US$166.04 per square foot, per annum.

In terms of increase in office rentals, Mumbai CBD is at No.8 in the world.

Within the Asia Pacific region, India captured three of the Top 10 most expensive locations with Mumbai -Nariman Point and Central Mumbai - Worli on 3rd and 4th position, respectively and New Delhi’s Connaught Place at 6th position.

London retains its title as having the most expensive office occupancy costs in the world while Hong Kong is up one place at No.2 followed by Tokyo, which is down one place. Moscow has risen by two places, from No.7 last year to No.5 this year.

The world’s Top 10 most expensive office locations saw rents, a large component of occupancy costs, increase by an average 40% last year, the Cushman & Wakefield report said. Worldwide, the growth in office rents was an average of 14% last year versus 10% in 2006.

London remained the most expensive city, with rents in the city's West End rising 30% and total annual occupancy costs averaging US$311.58 a square foot. Hong Kong moved up to second place from third last year, with annual occupancy costs of US$238.58 a square foot.

Tokyo dropped to third place from second, with US$210.12 a square foot of annual costs. Singapore moved into the global top 10 for the first time, with occupancy costs hitting an average of about US$130 a square foot. New York dropped one level from last year to 10th place.

Office Space Across the World 2008 compares office occupancy costs in 203 key locations in a record 58 countries around the world. Of these 203 locations, 79% showed rental growth last year, 20% stable rents and only 1% showed a rental fall (compared with 6% last year).

In the top ten of the global ranking, the biggest risers include Singapore, which goes up 10 places to join the Top 10 at 7th position. Prime office rents rose 78% in Singapore last year in local currency, the report said.

Together with strong performances in India and Vietnam, among other locations in the region, Singapore helped Asia Pacific achieve the strongest regional growth, with rents rising 23% over the course of 2007, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

The strongest riser in the global ranking is Oslo, which goes up 14 places to 11th position. Turkey accounts for the top three locations for the highest annual growth in office rents in all 203 locations monitored, with Istanbul’s Levent district, Turkey’s most expensive location, in the No. 1 position.

Govt finally announces modest hike in fuel prices

The Government finally showed some gumption and announced a marginal hike in retail prices of petrol and diesel while keeping the prices of politically sensitive LPG and Kerosene unchanged. The price of petrol was hiked by Rs2 per litre while that of diesel was increased by Re1 per litre. This was the first upward revision in petrol and diesel prices in the past 20 months. The Government has not increased fuel prices since June 2006, even as crude oil rose 57% in 2007 and surged to US$100 a barrel last month. The Government had actually cut fuel prices in November 2006 and February 2007.

With this, the price of petrol in Delhi rose to Rs45.52/litre from Rs43.52/litre and that of diesel to Rs31.76 a litre from Rs30.48/litre. Fuel prices vary across the country due to different tax structure of states. The state-run oil firms have been suffering heavily owing to the steep increase in crude prices even as local fuel prices have been kept unchanged to avoid a spike in inflation. Oil marketing companies' under-recoveries for the current fiscal year are estimated at Rs718bn. The increase in fuel prices is likely to benefit oil marketing companies by Rs8.4bn.

Meanwhile, Petroleum Secretary M.S. Srinivasan said the contribution of oil bonds towards under-recoveries will go up to 57% from the current level of 43%. Oil marketing companies will get Rs234.6bn of bonds for the year to March 31. They received Rs241.2bn of bonds in the previous fiscal year. Another 33% is currently being borne by public sector oil & gas upstream companies - ONGC and Oil India while the balance is shared by IOC, BPCL and HPCL.

As expected, the Left parties demanded an immediate roll-back, threatening to launch nation-wide protests. The BJP too lashed out on the Government. The matter is expected to be raised in the budget session of the Parliament, which begins on Feb. 25.

Upstream majors ONGC and Oil India will bear a third or Rs240bn. The burden on IOC, BPCL and HPCL will be limited to their last year’s level of 8.4% (Rs61bn) of the total under-realisation. The price hike would cut losses by 1.2%. But, this would provide only partial relief to public sector oil marketing companies. Even with the revised prices, PSU companies will continue to lose Rs7.20/litre on petrol and Rs9.94/litre on diesel.

Reliance Power...load shedding on listing

All the hype and hoopla surrounding the launch of Reliance Power vanished in a flash, as the stock got hammered right from the moment it listed, on Feb. 11. It just could not cope with the immense selling pressure after it managed to open at Rs525 on NSE. The stock constantly lost ground and hit a low of Rs355. Finally, the stock managed to recoup towards the end to close at Rs372, translating into a discount of 17% on its debut. The stock managed to regain some lost ground by the end of the week and closed at Rs385.70, in line with the improvement in the market sentiment.

Reliance Power was expected to list around Rs500-550 as per the unofficial rates in the grey market. This itself was substantially down from the initial premium of around Rs900 when the company launched the IPO. The premium shrunk gradually due to weak market sentiment and after Wockhardt Hospitals and Emaar MGF withdrew their public issues. Still, nobody would have imagined that Reliance Power would get pounded so badly on debut.

A lot of investors suffered big losses by betting on the Ambani/Reliance goodwill and brand equity. Even such big names as Centurion Bank of Punjab, Allahabad Bank and ABN Amro booked losses on the second day of the listing after getting substantial number of shares. The worst hit were those who applied by borrowing at an interest rate of 18-20%. Most of them are likely to have lost money.

The invincible reputation of the Reliance group has taken a severe beating post the dismal listing of Reliance Power and it would take some doing on the part of Anil Ambani to win back investors' confidence.

Another ripple effect of the disappointing Reliance Power listing will be felt in the primary market. The IPO market is likely to remain subdued for a while as scary investors will view every issue with a lot of apprehensions now. However, the management of public sector Rural Electrification Corp. and Oil India remain confident that their issues will manage to clear the litmus test despite the Reliance Power fiasco.

NSE Bulk Deal Watch - Feb 15 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
15-FEB-2008,EMCO,Emco Limited,MERILL LYNCH CAPITAL MARKET ESPANA S A SVB,BUY,289600,1155.00,-
15-FEB-2008,ERACONS,Era Constructions (India),SIKHAR DEALCOM PVT LTD,BUY,142180,755.47,-
15-FEB-2008,GABRIEL,Gabriel India Ltd,ASIA INVESTMENT PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,3576774,20.70,-
15-FEB-2008,PTC,PTC India Limited,MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER MAURITIUS CO. LTD,BUY,2533713,114.30,-
15-FEB-2008,SARLAPOLY,Sarla Performance Fibers,HINDUSTAN COTTON COMPANY,BUY,50000,150.00,-
15-FEB-2008,SARLAPOLY,Sarla Performance Fibers,KAUSHIK SHAH SHARES & SECURITIES PVT LTD,BUY,25,159.88,-
15-FEB-2008,SELMCL,SEL Manufacturing Company,TAIB BANK E,BUY,76081,207.13,-
15-FEB-2008,XLTL,XL Telecom Limited,KMRINDUSTRIESLIMITED,BUY,65000,314.27,-
15-FEB-2008,XLTL,XL Telecom Limited,KOTAK MAHINDRA UK LTD,BUY,97430,300.00,-
15-FEB-2008,EMCO,Emco Limited,FIDELITY INDIAN MUTUAL FUND A/C. FIDELITY EQUITY FUND,SELL,227086,1155.00,-
15-FEB-2008,EMCO,Emco Limited,FIDELITY TRUSTEE CO PVT LTD A/C FIDELITY TAX ADVANTAGE FUND,SELL,62514,1155.00,-
15-FEB-2008,GABRIEL,Gabriel India Ltd,FEDERAL-MOGUL CORPORATION,SELL,3696000,20.70,-
15-FEB-2008,PTC,PTC India Limited,ABN AMRO BANK N.V. LONDON BRANCH,SELL,2534000,114.30,-
15-FEB-2008,SARLAPOLY,Sarla Performance Fibers,KAUSHIK SHAH SHARES & SECURITIES PVT LTD,SELL,50000,150.00,-
15-FEB-2008,XLTL,XL Telecom Limited,KMRINDUSTRIESLIMITED,SELL,165000,301.40,-

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Feb 15 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Scrip Name Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
15/2/2008 531223 ANJANI SYNTH NATRAJ FINANCIAL AND SERVICES LTD B 142025 41.44
15/2/2008 531223 ANJANI SYNTH NATRAJ FINANCIAL AND SERVICES LTD S 166525 41.45
15/2/2008 505506 AXON INFOTEC SHEETAL KASHIRAM KADAM S 4020 51.44
15/2/2008 531591 BAMPSL SECUR JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 524576 1.79
15/2/2008 532483 CANARA BANK CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKET M PVT LTD S 2450000 294.00
15/2/2008 531682 CAT TECHNOL SARFARAZKHAN SARVARKHAN PATHAN S 283135 8.59
15/2/2008 531358 CHOIC INTERN VINOD JEETAPAL BANA B 25000 13.13
15/2/2008 531358 CHOIC INTERN RAJPAL HARPAL RANA B 20600 13.13
15/2/2008 531358 CHOIC INTERN RAJ KUMAR SARAF.. B 25000 13.13
15/2/2008 524388 CRAZY INFOTE MANOJ DAGA B 65245 40.10
15/2/2008 524388 CRAZY INFOTE BAKLIWAL FINANCIAL SERVICES INDIA PVT LTD S 54500 40.10
15/2/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF PRABHUDAS LILLADHER PVT. LTD. B 606602 9.22
15/2/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 1325003 9.19
15/2/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF SARFARAZKHAN SARVARKHAN PATHAN B 3977343 9.24
15/2/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF PRABHUDAS LILLADHER PVT. LTD. S 456483 9.49
15/2/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 510003 9.65
15/2/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF SARFARAZKHAN SARVARKHAN PATHAN S 3930996 9.18
15/2/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN PRIME SECURITIES LTD AC PWM B 23500 207.08
15/2/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN PRIME SECURITIES LTD B 16000 207.06
15/2/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN PRAVINCHANDRA NAGARDAS KAMDAR S 17750 205.93
15/2/2008 530117 H.K.FINECHEM DHIREN S. SHAH HUF B 50000 17.35
15/2/2008 530117 H.K.FINECHEM DIPTI D SHAH B 100000 17.35
15/2/2008 530117 H.K.FINECHEM DHIREN S. SHAH S 150000 17.35
15/2/2008 500227 JINDAL POLFM FOREX FINANCE LTD B 275000 203.00
15/2/2008 500227 JINDAL POLFM BINDAL LEFIN P LTD S 275000 203.00
15/2/2008 532283 KASHYAP TEC SHARMISHTA MAHESHBHAI SHAH B 1813289 3.76
15/2/2008 512529 P I DRUGS FRAXIS LIFE SCIENCES PVT LTD B 423000 59.90
15/2/2008 512529 P I DRUGS AGNUS HOLDINGS PVT LTD S 469702 59.90
15/2/2008 531219 POONAM PHARM SWARN GANGA TRADING PVT. LTD. B 70100 3.16
15/2/2008 522207 RASAND ENG I RAJIV ARORA S 24013 99.83
15/2/2008 532886 SEL MANUF JITENDRA PARSHURAM MAYEKA S 95000 207.44
15/2/2008 500285 SPICEJET LTD BSMA LTD B 9076832 66.10
15/2/2008 500285 SPICEJET LTD BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE S 9236161 66.15
15/2/2008 530585 SWASTIK INV SEEMA JAIN B 15320 34.42
15/2/2008 504605 UNIABEX AL P DHIREN S. SHAH HUF B 15000 86.20
15/2/2008 504605 UNIABEX AL P DHIREN S. SHAH S 15000 86.20
15/2/2008 532765 USHER AGRO UBS SECURITIES ASIA LTD. ACCOUNT SW B 480000 165.00

Post Session Commentary - Feb 15 2008

On Friday, BSE Sensex wrapped the day with a hefty gain of 348.62 points, or 1.96%, at 18,115.25, while the broad-based NSE Nifty closed at 5,302.90, up 100.9 points, or 1.94%.

The 30-share benchmark index, Sensex, opened with a negative gap of 225.46 points at 17,541.17 following weak global cues in the early trade. Afterwards, it slipped further 200 points in the initial trading hours and touched a low of 17,445.05.

Accordingly, the index after trading in the negative, recovered smartly and gained further strength on the back of intense buying interest in frontline stocks. It ended on a strong note after touching an intraday high of 18,142.92.

All sectors traded in the positive.

The wholesale price index Inflation dropped to 4.07% for the week ended Feb. 2, 2008 as against 4.11% in the previous week.

Midcap Index rose 139.36 points (1.87%) and Small Cap Index surged 213.37 points (2.27%).

Global markets

Asian shares settled mixed on Friday. Stocks in China, Japan and South Korea declined tracking the US markets. US markets fell yesterday after Ben Bernanke, chairman, Federal Reserve, said he is expecting weak economic growth. However, other markets in the region climbed today.


Market statistics

Out of the total 2,727 stocks traded at the BSE, 1,794 advanced, 870 declined while 63 remained unchanged.



Among the sectoral indices, BSE Auto and Power rose over 1% each, BSE Bankex inched up 2.55%, BSE Realty advanced 3.49% and Metal was up 3.49%.



Movers and Shakers



Gainers at the Sensex were Hindalco, which surged 9% to close at Rs 178.50, Tata Steel, gained 5.12% to Rs 818.50 and Bajaj Auto rose 4.78% to finish at Rs 2,174.75. SBI, Ranbaxy, HUL, M&M, RIL, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors and HDFC also rose.



Losers at the BSE Sensex include Maruti, which declined 2.13% to end at Rs 812.75, Grasim dipped 1.13% to Rs 2,814.20 and TCS shed 0.30% to close at Rs 871.50. Ambuja Cement and Satyam also slipped.



Top Turnover



Reliance Power topped the turnover chart with Rs 4,445.4 million followed by REL with Rs 2,606.5 million.

TCS

TCS

Hindustan Unilever

Hindustan Unilever

Weekly Close: Resurgence on a Valentine !

Strong come back after a slum as investors witnessed a YOYO market at the start of the week but a jolly day on Valentine brought in comforts. Market pared off the gains during first two days, then, rebounded to end up by 3.7% for the week. The US mayhem continues to hover over globe. US central Bank has reduced the growth forecast and that signals the seriousness of the problem. Easy escape from this seems difficult.

Indian market rallied and recovered in last two days. There was some relief from global front however this a pre budget rally. Expectations are building up as the budget is nearing. Every one seems to be excepting tax benefit and excise benefit. But, whether this will be met or not needs to be seen. We will update you on Budget expectations soon.

Markets this week: Sensex up 3.7%, Nifty up 3.4%, Mid cap up 0.5%, Small caps down 3%. Metal index up 6.7%, Banking index up 7.2%, Oil and gas index up 6%. Gains were led by BHEL (10%), Suzlon (7%), Unitech (18%), reliance cap (13%), Tata steel and SAIL (9%) HDFC (8%), ICICI (10%), RIL (+6.5%), HPCL (12.5%) and BPCL (8%), J P Associates (10%)

Inflation for the week ended Feb 02 stood at 4.07% v/s expectation of 4.16%. Inflation was low so far but it was a base effect. Now as the base effect is over we will see the actual number. Govt. increased the fuel prices?this will directly impact inflation which will push the inflation upwards henceforth. The possibility of rate cut also seems bleak in the high inflation scenario.

Oil marketing companies rallied as Govt. hiked the petrol and diesel prices by Rs.2 and Rs.1 respectively. This hike has been long awaited by the oil marketing companies. However this might not help much where crude is trading at $90 per barrel. But the cement stocks got a hit with this fuel price hike.

ATF may get declared goods status.. The Civil aviation ministry has requested the Finance minister to declare ATF under the declared goods status in the budget. Andhra Pradesh government has already reduced the sales tax on ATF from 33% to 4%. Civil aviation officials have also suggested that an intermediate sales tax rate of 10% may be considered till it is reduced to 4% by including jet fuel in the list of declared goods. The revenue loss of states due to lower sales tax is likely to get compensated by the additional volume of fuel consumed by airlines. ATF price in the country include an excise duty of 8%, Custom duty of 10%, sales tax averaging 23% across the country, throughput charges levied by the airport operators and marketing margins of oil companies. The Domestic Airline to benefit from this as ATF accounts for 40% of operating cost of an airline. Also the AP govt's move will result in more Aircraft arrivals at Hyderabad which will bring in more revenue. This reduction in sales tax could see uniform pricing across the nation. The airlines sector continues to face tough competition for now.

The data from World Steel Dynamics Steel Bench marker TM suggests steel prices are continuously on an uptrend across board. In the past one and half months, Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices have increased by $125/t in US, by $84/t in Europe and by $24/t in China. During, the same period Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) prices increased by $127/t in US, by $74/t in Europe and by $43/t in China. The major hit was taken by the Pipes manufacturing companies and this was seen in the last quarter the pipe companies have taken a big hit on the margins. We expect this to continue for coming quarters too but some relief could be seen as the companies would increase the prices of their products which they couldn?t do in the last quarter. We like Maharashtra Seamless and ISMT in the seamless segment. Do read our Quarterly analysis on these companies.

We had a note on Cranes Software which is into software product marketing and its strategy has been to acquire product based companies and cross sell them across. The company derives 80% of revenues from international markets while the rest 20% of revenues from domestic which is largely as a reseller. The products of the company are in a niche area of Statistical softwares / Technical softwares used by Scientists / Chemists working on environment sciences, life sciences, behavioral sciences, medical research and engineering. Competition is quite tough with some large global players. We believe that the slowing global economy will impact off take for this company. New product development on the engineering side will be slower than what it is now. Valuations do seem to be a bit expensive.. but do read our view in the note.

Sugar stocks had sweet week as the Govt. has allowed PSU banks to lend Sugar companies for reimbursing the sugarcane arrears. This is a temporary relief for the sugar companies. Before commencement of the crushing season, it was estimated a bumper cane crop will lead to sugar oversupply. But, now the estimates are lowered due to low sugarcane yield per hectare and delay in crushing. The sugar buffer carried from last year is significant and this is negative for sugar industry. There are also reports that Brazil will see lower sugar production because of severe winter. Ethanol blending of 10% from October 2008 will boost the sugar industry as cane will be diverted for ethanol. Overall scenario remains bleak for the sugar companies. Although politics plays a major role here. The variables which need to be watched in future will be SAP (State Advisory price), SMP (Statutory Minimum Price) and sugar prices globally. Better get more clarity here before entering the stocks. Renuka Sugars is better off amongst the all, as its Maharashtra based and is more integrated player. Keep watching this space to know more.

Technically Speaking: Sensex opened gap down but rallied over 500 point from days low to close up by 349 points up. Turnover churned stood at Rs 6372 cr as Sensex made a high if 18143 and low of 17445. Advances outpaced Declines in the ratio of 2.5:1. As we mentioned in the MID MARKET Sensex is nearing our target of 18400. We might see some profit booking at that level. Support now at 18000 and 17850.

Post Market Commentary - Feb 15 2008

The market closed on a strong note by posting good gains across the sectoral indices. The market opened on weak note taking the unfavoring cues from the global markets but the market got the momentum towards the mid session to pare all its initial losses to close with handsome gains. The market also got the momentum as the India''s wholesale price index rose 4.07% in the 12 months to 2 February 2008, marginally lower than the previous week''s rise of 4.11%. The Mid Cap and Small Cap also joined the rally of the benchmark indices to post strong gains. From the sectoral front, most buying was seen from the metal, realty, oil & gas and bankex space. The BSE Sensex closed higher by 348.62 points at 18,115.25 and NSE Nifty grew by 100.9 points to close at 5,302.90. The BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap closed up by 139.36 points and 213.37 points at 7,592.08 and 9,621.13 respectively.

BSE Realty index grew by 353.72 points to close at 10,497.27 as Unitech (6.72%), Ansal Infra (4.98%), Penland (4.03%), Mahindra Life (2.81%), Omaxe (2.42%) closed in green.

BSE Metal index surged 545.27 points to close at 16,167.16 as Hindalco Inds (9.01%), Tata Steel (5.12%), Hind Zinc (4.53%), Ispat (3.69%), Nalco (3.52%), SAIL (3.32%) and Sterlite (2.93%).

BSE CG grew by 136.13 points to close at 16,418.30. Gainers are SKF India (4.54%), ABB (2.82%), Punj Lloyd (3.07%), Kalpataru Power (2.20%), AIA Eng (2.41%) and BHEL (1.31%).

BSE Oil & Gas index advanced by 336.73 points to close at 11,269.09. Scrips that gained are Essar Oil (9.77%), IOCL (4.45%), GAIL India (4.15%), HPCL (3.75%), RNRL (3.71%).

BSE Bankex index closed higher by 270.33 points at 10,884.42. Gainers are SBI (4.21%), Yes bank (3.94%), Kotak bank (3.65%), BOB (3.29%), Axis bank (3.26%) and Canara bank (2.90%).

BSE Power index increased by 39.68 points to close at 3,768.84 as ABB (3.82%), GMR Infra (3.32%), Power Grid (2.91%), CESC (2.50%), Tata Power (1.48%) and Torrent Power (1.30%).

Market to track global equities

Indian markets will track global indices as US recession worries continue to haunt global markets. The Union Budget 2008-09 that would be presented by the finance ministry at the fag end of the month will be the next major trigger for the market.

Investors will closely watch global markets after the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke alluded to the possibility of US nearing a recession, indicating the Fed may continue to ease interest rates further. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson continued to forecast slow growth. US Financial stocks had come under pressure after Swiss banking giant UBS reported a loss of $11.12 billion in Q4 December 2007.

However, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Friday 15 February 2008, at an industry conference that the government was confident of sustaining 9% annual economic growth despite a possible global slowdown.

Q3 December 2007 results of Indian incorporation did meet market expectations with decent performance amidst fear of slowdown of the world economy.

The forthcoming Union Budget 2008-09 is unlikely to offer any significant reduction in tax rates, though it may provide for larger subsidies and public spending on infrastructure. This was the finding of a survey of 300 business heads by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Assocham). Most of the CEOs surveyed were of the opinion that the budget could have more benefits for the common man than to industry.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continue to press sales in Indian equity market. They were net sellers of Rs 279.80 crore in this month till 13 February 2008. They were net sellers of Rs 13,315.40 crore so far in calendar 2008.

Reportedly, India's decision to raise retail fuel prices has poured cold water on any expectations of a cut in interest rates before the next central bank review on 29 April 2008, as inflation was already showing signs of picking up. The government raised state-set petrol and diesel prices by 4.6% and 3.3% respectively on Thursday 14 February 2008 to bring them closer to global benchmarks and ease losses at state-run oil retailers. The move had been long debated by policy makers and comes just over two weeks after the central bank left its key lending rate steady at 7.75 %, warning that inflation risks persisted.

As per another reports, the government has now turned its attention to keeping inflation in check. Till a few days ago, the government had been asking the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates to keep the growth momentum going. However, it wants to play safe now and continue with the policy of sucking excess money out of the economy, which will help ease the price pressure.

Annual inflation, based on the wholesale price index, stood at 4.07% in the week ended 2 February 2008 compared with 4.11% in the week ended 26 January 2008. The market estimate stood at 4.16%. Inflation figure for the week ended 8 December 2008 was revised upwards to 3.84% as against 3.65% reported earlier.

Market recovers from initial slide on bargain buying

Poor debut from India's biggest ever IPO, Reliance Power hit the bourses at the onset of the week. The market recovered later as global markets rallied following an unexpected rise in US retail sales in January 2008.

Markets witnessed volatility on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke alluded to the possibility of US nearing a recession, indicating the Fed may continue to ease interest rates. Sensex gained in 3 out of 5 trading sessions in the week.

The BSE Sensex surged 650.36 points or 3.72% to 18,115.25 in the week ended Friday, 15 February 2008.. S&P CNX Nifty rose 182.55 points or 3.56% to 5,302.90 in the week.

The BSE Mid-Cap index declined 41.19 points or 0.54% to 7,592.08 in the week. The BSE Small-Cap index slumped 299.22 points or 3.02% to 9,621.13.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of shares worth Rs 279.80 crore in this month till 13 February 2008. They were net sellers of Rs 13,315.40 crore so far in calendar 2008.

Huge selling pressure was witnessed across the board as investors fretted over the dismal debut of Reliance Power with Sensex falling 833.98 points or 4.78% at 16,630.91 on Monday 11 February 2008. Weak global cues, too, weighed on bourses. After a sharp slump, the market had witnessed recovery from lower level in mid-afternoon trade after State Bank of India, India's biggest commercial bank announced a cut in price lending rate by 25 basis points. However, the recovery proved short-lived and the market plunged again in late trade. Reliance Energy plummeted. All the sectoral indices on BSE, barring IT index, were in the red. The market breadth was poor.

Recovery in industrial production and positive global cues failed to offer solace to Indian investors after a sharp setback on Monday that was caused by poor debut of India's biggest IPO Reliance Power. Key indices shot up in early trade but were unable to sustain at higher level and finally ended the volatile session with losses with Sensex falling 22.90 points or 0.14% at 16,608.01 on Tuesday 12 February 2008. Banking and oil & gas stocks were in demand. IT stocks dropped. Broader market declined, as reflected in the weak market breadth.

Positive global cues and some hectic buying in large-caps assisted the Indian market breach five-day losing streak. Sensex rose 341.13 points or 2.05% at 16,949.14 on Wednesday 13 February 2008. Banking, realty and metal stocks were in the demand. The market breadth, which was positive in early trade, turned extremely weak as small and mid-cap shares came under selling pressure.

Strong global cues set up a solid platform for Indian market to surge as Sensex rose 817.49 points or 4.82% at 17,766.63 on Thursday 14 February 2008. The rally in global markets was triggered by an unexpected rise in US retail sales in January 2008 that helped ease recession worries in the world's largest economy. Capital goods and power stocks were in demand. Oil and gas stocks perked up on reports the Indian government has raised retail fuel prices to ease losses at state-run oil marketing firms. The market breadth was strong.

Posting gains for the third successive session, the key benchmark indices settled on a firm note with Sensex gaining 348.62 points or 1.96% to 18,115.25, on Friday,15 February 2008. Major support to the market came in from the metal and oil sector stocks. Buying was witnessed in mid-caps and small-caps, as reflected in the strong market breadth. After sliding in early trade tracking weak Asian stocks, the market moved higher in the later half of the trading session as buying intensified after Asian markets recovered.

India's biggest power equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals rose 12.3% to Rs 2,261.35. As per reports, the company has taken a insurance policy worth $7 billion from Nation Insurance to cover all its projects. The company bagged an order worth Rs 200 crore from Oil & Natural Gas Corporation for supplying oil field equipment.

India's third-largest software services exporter by sales Wipro slipped 0.52% to Rs 42.25. It has secured an information technology outsourcing contract from Pantaloon Retail India.

India's biggest power generation firm by revenue National Thermal Power Corporation gained 0.35% to Rs 204. The company said on 15 February 2008 it has signed an agreement with Bihar State Electricity Board to form a joint venture company to undertake a thermal power project in Bihar.

India’s second largest listed telecom firm by sales Reliance Communications was down 5.32% to Rs 611.70. As per reports, the company is looking for a possible takeover of French IT services group Capgemini

India's largest engineering and construction company in terms of revenue Larsen & Toubro rose 0.27% to Rs 3,536.95. The company said on 14 February 2008, it had bagged an order worth Rs 311 crore from Qatar General Electricity and Water Corporation for design, supply, installation and commissioning of five 66/11 substations at Qatar.

India’s largest drug maker by sales Ranbaxy Laboratories gained 3.62% to Rs 396.15 on BSE, after the company said on 14 February 2008, its board would meet on 19 February 2008 to consider spinning off its new drug discovery research unit into a separate company.

India's largest private sector entity by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries rose 6.97% to Rs 2,590.55. The company said on 14 February 2008 it had discovered natural gas reserves in an exploration block in the Krishna Godavari basin, Andhra Pradesh.

India’s top cellular services provider in terms of market share Bharti Airtel was flat at Rs 881.60. The company added 22.5 lakh mobile users in January 2008 as against 22 lakh users in December 2007

India’s largest commercial bank State Bank of India rose 4.86% to Rs 2,297.95. The bank said on 11 February 2008 it had cut its prime lending rate by 25 basis points to 12.5% with effect from 16 February 2008.

Infosys (up 0.86% to Rs 1,564.75), HDFC (up 4.48% to Rs 2,921.35), Tata Motors (up 5.62% to Rs 751.10), HDFC Bank (up 8.17% to Rs 1,564.10) were other gainers from Sensex pack.

Cords Cable Industries debuted at Rs 130 a discount of 3.70% and settled at Rs 138.30 a premium of 2.44% over the IPO price of Rs 135 (lower end of price band of Rs 125-135) on its debut on 13 February 2008.

J Kumar Infraprojects debuted at Rs 100 a discount of 9.09% and settled at Rs 102.70 a discount of 6.64% over IPO price of Rs 110 (at the lower end of the price band of Rs 110-120) on its debut on 12 February 2008.

Reliance Power debuted at Rs 547.80 a premium of 21.73% and settled at Rs 372.50 a discount of 17.22% over IPO price of Rs 450 (upper end of the price band of 405-450 per share) on its debut on 11 February 2008.

MSCI has included Reliance Petroleum, Essar Oil, Centurion Bank of Punjab and Steel Authority of India in a number of MSCI Inc. indices. The inclusion of these firms in the MSCI gauges may increase demand for these stocks by fund managers whose funds track the indices.

The growth in Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slowed down 7.6% in December 2007 from 13.4% in December 2006. IIP data for November 2007 was revised downwards to 5.1% from 5.3% reported earlier. IIP advanced 9% in April-December 2007 compared with 11.2% in April-December 2006.

On 10 February 2008 in Sivaganga (Tamil Nadu), Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram informed in a public meeting, the education and agriculture sectors would get top priority in the coming Union Budget. The minister said in the last three years the UPA goverment had allocated Rs 28600 crore for the education sector lending, of which Rs 17636 crore had already been distributed.

On 14 February 2008, Union Oil Minister Murli Deora informed petrol prices were hiked by Rs 2 a litre and that of diesel raised by Re 1. The change in price would be effective from Friday, 15 February 2008. The minister explained India has raised prices of petrol and diesel for the first time in 20 months to ease losses at state-run retailers squeezed by a surge in crude oil prices while having to sell fuels cheaply.

On 15 February 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh while addresing an industry conference in New Delhi, expressed confidence on sustaining a 9% annual economic growth despite a possible global slowdown. The minister also cautioned India must be aware that it cannot be completely insulated from chilly global winds that may blow in its direction.

Annual inflation, based on the wholesale price index, moved down 4.07% in the week ended 2 February 2008 compared with 4.11% in the week ended 26 January 2008. The market estimate stood at 4.16%. Inflation figure for the week ended 8 December 2008 was revised upwards to 3.84% as against 3.65% reported earlier.

Sensex garners 1507 points in three days

Posting gains for the third successive session, the key benchmark indices settled on a firm note today. Major support to the market came in from the metal and oil sector stocks. Buying was witnessed in mid-caps and small-caps, as reflected in the strong market breadth.

After sliding in early trade tracking weak Asian stocks, the market moved higher in the later half of the trading session as buying intensified after Asian markets recovered. European markets, which opened after Indian markets, were trading in the green.

India's wholesale price index rose 4.07% in the 12 months to 2 February 2008, marginally lower than the previous week's rise of 4.11%, government data released today afternoon showed.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 348.62 points or 1.96% at 18,115.25. Sensex rose 376.29 points at day's high of 18,142.92, at the fag end of the session. Sensex lost 321.58 points at the day's low of 17,445.05, hit in early trade.

The broader CNX S&P Nifty was up 100.90 points or 1.94% at 5302.90.

From a recent low of 16,608.01 on 12 February 2008, Sensex has advanced 1507.24 points or 9.07% in three trading sessions.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 1.87% to 7,592.08. It underperformed the Sensex. The BSE Small-Cap rose 2.27% at 9,621.13. It outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was strong: On BSE, 1983 stocks advanced as compared to 763 that declined. 47 stocks remained unchanged.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 6372 crore as against Rs 5,735.81 crore on Thursday, 14 February 2008.

The Nifty February 2008 futures were at 5276.90, at a discount of 26 points as compared to the spot closing of 5302.90.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 42675.67 crore, which was higher than Rs 37973.36 crore on Thursday, 14 February 2008.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries rose 3.02% at Rs 2,590.55. The company has reportedly secured approval from the Supreme Court to build part of an underground pipeline from the Krishna Godavari basin through a bird sanctuary.

India’s largest private sector bank by assets ICICI Bank rose 2.48% to Rs 1,191.15.

Among the other Sensex gainers, Hindalco Industries (up 9.01% to Rs 178.50), Tata Steel (up 5.12% to Rs 818.50), Bajaj Auto (up 4.78% to Rs 2,174.75), State Bank of India (up 4.21% to Rs 2,297.95) and Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 4.20% to Rs 396.15), advanced.

Among the Sensex losers, Maruti Suzuki (down 2.13% to Rs 812.75), Grasim Industries (down 1.13% to Rs 2,814.20), TCS (down 0.30% to Rs 871.50), Ambuja Cements (down 0.30% to Rs 115.85) and Satyam Computer (down 0.05% to Rs 438.20), declined.

The BSE Metal index rose 3.49% to 16,167.16. It outperformed the Sensex. Hindustan Zinc (up 4.53% to Rs 591), Jindal Saw (up 4.12% to Rs 821.90), Ispat Industries (up 3.69% to Rs 43.60), National Aluminum Company (up 3.52% to Rs 361.65) and Steel Authority of India (up 3.32% to Rs 220.85), edged higher.

Oil stocks moved up after the government announced hike in petrol and diesel prices by Rs 2 and Rs 1 respectively on Thursday, 14 February 2008. The BSE Oil & Gas index rose 3.08% to 11,269.09. It outperformed the Sensex. Essar Oil (up 9.77% to Rs 234.90), Indian Oil Corporation (up 4.45% to Rs 560.65), Gail India (up 4.15% to Rs 427.95), HPCL (up 3.75% to Rs 308.75), Reliance Natural Resources (up 3.71% to Rs 136.95) and ONGC (0.74% to Rs 1,033.30), gained.

The BSE Realty index rose 3.49% to 10,497.27. It outperformed the Sensex. Unitech (up 6.72% to Rs 417.15), Ansal Properties and Infrastructure (up 5% to Rs 234.05), Mahindra Lifespace Developers (up 2.81% to Rs 650.85), Omaxe (up 2.42% to Rs 273.35) and DLF (up 1.63% to Rs 878.95), moved up.

Real estate developer Indiabulls Real Estate spurted 5.24% to Rs 656.55 after it sold 37.5% in its power unit for Rs 1580 crore to two investors including to private equity venture of steel magnate Laxmi Mittal.

Software stocks lagged behind following overnight decline in the US market. The BSE IT index rose merely 0.95% to 3,879.98. It underperformed the Sensex. Infosys Technologies (up 1.13% to Rs 1,564.75) and Wipro (up 1.08% to Rs 420.25), gained. TCS (down 0.30% to Rs 871.50) and Patni Computer (down 0.45% to Rs 256.35), declined. Indian IT firm earn more than half of their revenues from the US market.

Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group firm Reliance Power rose 3.96% to Rs 384.70 on volume of 1.17 crore shares on BSE. On Monday, 11 February 2008, the stock had debuted at Rs 547.80, a premium of Rs 21.73% over the IPO price of Rs 450.

Another ADAG firm Reliance Capital rose 4.33% to Rs 2080.95. Reliance Capital Asset Management Company today said it has mopped up Rs 5,660 crore in its new fund offer Reliance Natural Resources Fund.

Reliance Power clocked the highest turnover of Rs 444.54 crore on BSE. Reliance Natural Resources (Rs 395.85 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs 260.65 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 253.30 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs 241.27 crore), were the turnover toppers on BSE in that order.

Reliance Natural Resources reported highest volume of 2.95 crore shares on BSE. Ispat Industries (1.76 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (1.53 crore shares), IFCI (1.36 crore shares) and Reliance Power (1.17 crore shares), were the volume toppers on BSE in that order.

In Europe, key indices in UK, France and Germany were up 0.22% to 0.38%.

Asian markets recovered from initial fall. Key indices in Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan were up 0.14% to 1.46%. Key indices in South Korea, China and Japan were down by 0.03% to 1.21%.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 175.26 points, or 1.40%, to 12,376.98 on Thursday, 14 February 2008. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 18.35 points, or 1.34%, to 1,348.86, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 41.39 points, or 1.74%, to 2,332.54.

Reiterating the government's target for average expansion in the next few years, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told media on Thursday, 14 February 2008 that India can sustain close to 9% economic growth. India's economy expanded 9.6% in the last fiscal year.

Metal and realty stocks help market to recover

After a weak opening, the Sensex staged a recovery today on the back of heavy buying in metal, realty, oil and banking stocks. The bulls were back in action by afternoon as the market registered sharp gains on the back of all-round buying support. Taking a cue from subdued Asian indices, the Sensex resumed 226 points below its previous close at 17,541. However, eruption of buying interest by afternoon saw the Sensex touch the day's high of 18,143, up 698 points from its day's low. The Sensex held firm in the later part of the trading session and finally closed at 18,115, up 349 points. The Nifty advanced 101 points to close at 5,303.

The breadth of the market was positive. Of the 2,793 stocks traded on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), 1,976 stocks advanced, 769 stocks declined and 48 ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices, the BSE Realty index, the BSE Metal index and the BSE Oil index rose over 3% each, while other indices closed with gains of 1-2% each.

Among the movers of the index, Hindalco soared 9.01% at Rs179, Tata Steel rose 5.12% at Rs819, Bajaj Auto scaled up 4.78% at Rs2,175, SBI added 4.21% at Rs2,298, Ranbaxy moved up by 4.20% at Rs396, HLL was up 3.86% at Rs211, M&M surged 3.21% at Rs619 and Reliance Industries gained 3.02% at Rs2,591. ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, HDFC, Cipla, ITC, DLF, HDFC Bank, NTPC, BHEL, Infosys, Wipro and L&T gained over 1-3% each. Maruti Suzuki, however, faced profit booking and lost 2.13% at Rs813, while Grasim declined 1.13% at Rs2,814. TCS, Ambuja Cement and Satyam Computer ended with marginal losses.

Over 2.95 crore RNRL shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Ispat Industries (1.76 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (1.53 crore shares), IFCI (1.36 crore shares) and Reliance Power (1.17 crore shares).

Valuewise, Reliance Power registered a turnover of Rs444 crore followed by RNRL (Rs395 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs260 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs253 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs241 crore).

Market may slide on weak global cues

The market may slide today on weak global cues. Volatility may remain high, as it had been in the recent past.

Meanwhile, annual inflation data, based on the wholesale price index, for the week ended 2 February 2008 is due today, 15 February 2008. Inflation was 4.11% in the week ended 26 January 2008 higher than 3.93% in the week ended 19 January 2008.

Asian markets were weak. Hang Seng (down 1.98% at 23,546.53), Japan's Nikkei (down 1.49% at 13,423.93), Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted index (down 0.25% at 7,845.32), South Korea's Seoul Composite index(down 0.95% at 1,681.38), Singapore's Straits Times index (down 0.22% at 3,038.80) and China’s Shanghai Composite index (down 1.81% to 4,470.05), all edged lower

US markets slumped on Thursday, 14 February 2008, as stocks fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke alluded to the possibility of US nearing a recession, indicating the Fed may continue to ease interest rates. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson continued to forecast slow growth. Financial stocks were under pressure after Swiss banking giant UBS reported a loss of $11.12 billion in Q4 December 2007.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 175.26 points, or 1.40%, to 12,376.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 18.35 points, or 1.34%, to 1,348.86, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 41.39 points, or 1.74%, to 2,332.54.

Back home, the market rallied on the back of strong global cues on Thursday, 14 February 2008. The 30-share BSE Sensex surged 817.49 points or 4.82% at 17,766.63, recording its fourth biggest rise in percentage terms. The broader CNX S&P Nifty rose 272.55 points or 5.53% at 5202 on that day.

As per provisional data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased shares worth Rs 60.99 crore on Thursday, 14 February 2008. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of shares worth Rs 205.03 crore on that day.

Crude oil prices fell in Asian trade today, 15 February 2008 amid continuing concerns about the ailing US economy. In morning trade, New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March fell 34 cents to $95.12 per barrel. London's Brent North Sea crude for March delivery was down 25 cents to $94.91.

RDAG Jokes

Dhirubhai - Beta, ye kya kiya, sarey investors ko mere paas bhej diya ?

Anil - Daddy, maine socha agar aap waha koi IPO laogey toh koi investor to hona chahiye !

RPL = Raha Paisa to Lengey

RIL = Risk In Life

RNRL = Rona Nahi phir bhi Ro Lengey

RPEL = Really Power-less Listing

REL = Roz Ek Lafda

RIIL = (Un)Reliable Intention, Is Lost

R.Cap = Roz Cap Utharo

Din ke ujale me Reliance Power ne Andhera dikhaya
Papa ka sapna ???? ???? ne mitti me milaya.

Anil Ambani's Next IPO - RELIANCE MOMBATTI LTD.....When power on RPower and Rel Energy will earn ....... when Power off also Reliance Mombatti will earn ... Them ..... either step by investors make earning for Reliance company

1)....Jeena RIL, Marna RIL, Coming Soon, Rel Hospital IPO, Rel Accident IPO. On Death, Free Electric funeral by RPOWER. Rel Zindagi Ke SAATH BHI, ZINDAGI ke BAAD BHI.


2)Dear ADAG members,
Thru self RELIANCE, u will have the POWER & ENERGY to bear all your losses. This COMMUNICATION is directly from our boss who is making CAPITAL on your behalf. Remember, U foolish investors are ou NATURAL RESOURCES.

Got MORE ?? Leave a comment please :)

Jaiprakash Associates, Punj Lloyd, Parsvnath Developers

Jaiprakash Associates, Punj Lloyd, Parsvnath Developers

FIIs in buying mode

Inflow of Rs 349 crore on 13 February 2008

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth net Rs 349 crore on Wednesday, 13 February 2008, compared to their selling of Rs 115.10 crore on Tuesday, 12 February 2008.

FII inflow of Rs 349 crore on 13 February 2008 was a result of gross purchases of Rs 3969.90 crore and gross sales Rs 3620.90 crore. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 341.13 points or 2.05% at 16,949.14 on that day.

FII outflow in February 2008 totaled Rs 279.80 crore (till 13 February 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 13,315.40 crore (till 13 February 2008).

There are a total of 1,285 FIIs registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi)

Global cues see Indian markets open low

The market is likely to remain under pressure after a sharp overnight fall on the US market and weakness among major Asian indices in the ongoing trades. However, FIIs remaining net buyers in equities for last two sessions may bring some cheers to the market. On the downside, support for Nifty is at 4940 and on breaking below this level the next support is at 4695, while on the upside it could test 5350. The Sensex has a likely support at 17000 and may face resistance at 18200.

US indices tumbled on Thursday on investors reaction to Federal chief's congressional testimony that economic conditions are likely to get worse before they get better. While the Dow Jones fell 175 points at 12377, the Nasdaq shed 41 points to close at 2333.

Indian ADRs had a mixed outing on US bourses. Infosys, VSNL, MTNL ,Rediff, Satyam, Tata Motors and HDFC Bank dropped around 1-4% each. While, Dr Reddy's, ICICI Bank, and Wipro were up around 1% each.

Crude oil prices gained further, with the Nymex light crude oil added $2.19 at $95.46 per barrel. In the metals segment, the Comex gold for April series moved up by 80 cents to settle at $910.20 an ounce.

Grey Market - Shriram EPC, KNR Constructions

Rural Electrification 90 to 105 18 to 20


GSS America InfoTech 400 to 440 Discount


KNR Construction 170 Discount


On Mobile Global 440 7 to 10


Bang Overseas 207 5 to 7


Shriram EPC 300 Discount


IRB Infra 185 10 to 12


Manjushree Extrusion 45 Discount


Tulsi Extrusions 85 5 to 7


V. Guard Ind. 80 to 85 7 to 10

MSCI Index - New additions

MSCI has included Reliance Petroleum, Essar Oil, Centurion Bank of Punjab and Steel Authority of India in a number of MSCI Inc. indices. The inclusion of these firms in the MSCI gauges may increase demand for these stocks by fund managers whose funds track the indices.

Morning Call - Feb 15 2008

Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Nifty at a supp of 5170 and 5153 with resistance at 5237 and 5298 levels.

Intraday : Buy BHEL above 2261 TGT 2310 with S/L 2239.

Intraday : sell Grasim above 2775 TGT 2720 with S/L 2805.



F & O : Buy J P Hydro above 76 with a TGT of 83 and a SL of 71

Buy Adlabs above 863 with a TGT of 990 and a SL of 850



Out House :

Markets at a support of 17474 & 17272 levels with resistance at 17786 & 17959 levels .

Buy : RIL & RelCap

Buy : Tisco & Sail

Buy : SBIN & Kotak

Buy : Bhel & HDFC

Buy : Neyvelli & EssarOIL

Buy : IBullsReal & Ibulls

Buy : SKumar & Aban

Buy : Bharti & Adalbs

Dark Horse : Bhel , RELCAP , Bharti , Adlabs , EssarOIL , MRPL , RIL , Sbin , & Aban

TGIF : Thank God Its Friday : Buy low sell high call for the day Markets to see buying at lower levels .

Daily Technicals, Futures, Outlook - Feb 15 2008

Daily Technicals, Futures, Outlook - Feb 15 2008

Trading Picks - Feb 15 2008

Trading Picks - Feb 15 2008

Today's Pick - Nicholas Piramal

We recommend a buy in Nicholas Piramal India from a short-term perspective. From the charts of Nicholas Piramal India we note that it has been on a healthy uptrend, making higher peaks and higher troughs from its June 2006 low of Rs 150. However, it has witnessed a medium-term counter trend, falling from its all-time high of Rs 383 marked in late December 2007 to its January low of Rs 250. Following this, the stock has consolidated sideways between Rs 290 and Rs 320.

On February 14, it made a conclusive upward breakout from its sideways consolidation with an above average volume. Besides, the daily momentum indicator also appears to be rising towards the bullish region. We observe a crossover in the daily moving average convergence divergence, which could likely enter the positive region. While the long-term uptrend is still in place, we are bullish on the stock over the short-term also. We expect the stock to move up to our target price of Rs 375 in the short-term. Investors with a short-term perspective can buy the stock with stop loss at Rs 300 levels.

Via Businessline

Pre Session Commentary - Feb 15 2008

The Indian Market is likely to have a negative opening due to weak cues from the global markets. On Thursday, the market closed with handsome gains by creating a rally across the sectoral indices. The market opened on a firm note taking the strong favoring cues from the global markets i.e. an unexpected rise in US retail sales in Janurary 2008 that gave a boost to the domestic market. In the domestic front, the central government approved the proposal for a hike in retail fuel prices i.e. Rs 2 per litre for petrol while Re 1 for diesel. The BSE Sensex closed higher by 817.49 points at 17,766.63 and NSE Nifty grew by 272.55 points to close at 5,202. We expect that the market may lose grounds during the trading session.

On Thursday, the US market closed in red. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed lower by 175.26 points at 12,376.98. S&P 500 index fell by 18.35 points to close at 1,348.86 and NASDAQ dropped by 41.39 points to close at 2,332.54

Indian ADRS ended in negative. In technology sector, Satyam fell by (4.57%) along with Infosys by (1.28%%) while Wipro grew by (1.20%). In banking sector, HDFC bank dropped by 0.56% while ICICI bank jumped by (0.87%). Sterlite Inds increased by (1.35%).

The major stock markets in Asia are trading strong. Hang Seng is trading higher by 706.66 points at 23,876.21 along with Japan''s Nikkei trading up by 364.74 points at 13,433.04 and Taiwan Weighted is trading at 7,772.07 up by 221.52 points.

The FIIs on Thursday stood as net buyer both in equity and debt. The gross equity purchased was Rs3,969.90 Crore and the gross debt purchased was Rs322.30 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs3,620.90 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs0.00 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was Rs349 Crore and net debt was Rs322.30 Crore.

Today, Nifty has support at 5,117 and resistance at 5,309 and BSE Sensex has support at 17,019 and resistance at 18,056.

Trading Calls - Feb 15 2008

Nifty 5202 Supp 4980 Ress 5275

Sell Peninsula Land (84) SL 87 Target 78, 76

Sell HCC (169) SL 174
Target 160, 158

Sell Amtek Auto (314) SL 319 Target 304, 301

Buy Suzlon (338) SL 333
Target 348, 353

Buy BRFL (305) SL 301
Target 315, 318

Home is where the problem belongs

he strength of a nation derives from the integrity of the home.

Bears feel at home again and the reasons are nothing new. Looks like again we are writing only global issues. But unless that is sorted, there is nothing much to write home about. We expect a lower opening today and much more volatility than yesterday. The US housing woes are far from over. Alan Greenspan says US housing market is a long way from bottoming out. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke painted a bleak picture of the world's biggest economy. However, both Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are confident that the US will be able to ward off a recession. But, former Fed chief Greenspan says the US economy is on the brink of recession. In fact he has warned that economic conditions would continue to deteriorate until housing prices stabilized.

So, seems like we are back to square one, with all the negative talk going around about the health of the US economy. We need not say more on what's going on in the US and elsewhere. But, the periodic bad news on the US and other developed economies will continue to cast its shadow on our market. As a result, we will see intermittent bouts of buying and selling amid reduced market-wide participation. It is tough for anybody to predict the market's direction in such a backdrop. It will be safe to say that in the near-term, the outlook remains uncertain while over the longer term, India will continue to be among the strongest emerging markets.

FIIs were net buyers of only Rs609.9mn (provisional) in the cash segment on Thursday. Local institutions were net buyers of Rs2.05bn. In the F&O segment, FIIs were net buyers of Rs29.7bn yesterday. FIIs were net buyers of Rs16.92bn in Index Futures and Rs4.75bn in single Stock Futures. On Wednesday, FIIs pumped in Rs3.49bn into the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs77mn on the same day.

Most Asian markets are trading down this morning after Fed chief Bernanke's grim remarks about the state of the US economy, the region's largest export market. Banks and technology companies led the fall.

The Nikkei in Tokyo was down 202 points or 1.5% at 13,423 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slid 476 points or 2% to 23,545. The Kospi in Seoul dropped 17 points or 1% to 1680 while the Straits Times in Singapore was virtually flat at 3041.

The Shanghai Composite in China tumbled 92 points or 2% to 4459 and the Taiex in Taiwan was fell by just 20 points or 0.25% to 7845.

About six stocks fell for each that gained on MSCI's Asian benchmark, which dropped 1% to 142.72 at 10:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Declines trimmed the benchmark's first weekly gain this year to 1.4%.

US shares slipped on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged that a steep slowdown is underway in the world's largest economy amid the ongoing turmoil in the housing and credit markets.

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup led declines in 29 of 30 members of the S&P 500 Diversified Financials Index. Intel dropped for the first time in six days. All 10 industry groups in the S&P 500 declined, halting the market's longest rally of the year.

The S&P 500 dropped 18 points, or 1.3%, to 1,348.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 175 points, or 1.4%, to 12,376.98. The Nasdaq slumped 41 points, or 1.7%, to 2,332.54.

About five stocks declined for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

After the close, data networking provider Brocade Communications posted quarterly earnings that fell from a year ago but nonetheless topped forecasts.

Friday brings a host of economic reports, including the NY Empire State manufacturing report before the start of trade and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report shortly after the start.

Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee that the outlook for the US economy has worsened recently and that the risks to growth remain to the downside. The Fed chief also said that the prospects could improve later in the year and that the housing sector mess and a weak jobs market will hurt consumer spending.

Bernanke said that big banks could end up taking more writedowns due to the problems with bond insurers. Stocks tumbled in response, with financial, homebuilder and retail stocks leading the decline.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson argued that the US economy should be able to avoid a recession, due to the combination of monetary policy and the fiscal stimulus plan announced by the Bush government.

The December trade gap narrowed more than expected, causing the 2007 trade gap to drop for the first time in six years. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell more than expected last week. And home prices continued to plunge in the last quarter of 2007, posting the biggest quarterly drop ever recorded by the National Association of Realtors.

Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.8% from 3.72% late on Wednesday. The dollar fell versus the yen and euro. US light crude oil for March delivery rose $2.19 to settle at $94.46 a barrel in New York. COMEX gold for April delivery rose 60 cents to settle at $910.80 an ounce.

Stocks in Europe closed mixed. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index ended with a gain of 0.1% at 323.66. The French CAC-40 ended up 0.1% at 4,858.65, while the German DAX 30 closed 0.2% lower to 6,962.28 and the UK's FTSE 100 finished flat at 5,879.30.

In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was down 1.2% at 61,818 while the IPC index in Mexico fell 0.6% to 29,138. The RTS index in Russia was up 1% at 2025 and the ISE National-30 index in Turkey gained 1.6% at 57,010.

Will the momentum continue?

It was second straight day of gains as benchmark Sensex rallied over 800 points extending its gains fuelled by positive cues from the international markets and buying momentum in the index heavyweights like RIL, ICICI Bank and L&T. Bulls were all over the bourses, even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks participated in the Valentine’s Day party. Finally, the 30-share Sensex closed at 17,766 surging 817 points. The NSE Nifty closed at 5,202 adding 272 points.

Overall about 2,057 stocks advanced, 697 stocks declined while 41 stocks remained unchanged. Among the BSE 30 index 39 stocks advanced while 1 stock declined.

Anant Raj Industries came off its days high on back of profit booking; the stock slipped 0.3% to Rs339. The company announced that they would start $300mn overseas share sale. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs348 and a low of Rs335 and recorded volumes of over 36,000 shares on BSE.

Essar Oil further rallied by over 16% to Rs214 after the stock was included in MSCI India Index. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs215 and a low of Rs196 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,00,000 shares on NSE.

Punj Lloyd surged by over 10% to Rs365 after the company announced that it secured contract worth Rs11.2bn from Marlna Bay Sands Pte Ltd, Singapore. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs368 and a low of Rs340 and recorded volumes of over 42,00,000 shares on NSE.

EID Parry advanced by 3% to Rs174 after the company said that they have acquired 51% stake in Phytoremedies Biolabs. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs177 and a low of Rs170 and recorded volumes of over 6,000 shares on NSE.

BHEL rallied by over 13% to Rs2228 after the company announced that it secured oilfield equipment contract from ONGC. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2256 and a low of Rs2050 and recorded volumes of over 12,00,000 shares on NSE.

Gail gained 3% to Rs440 after the company said that they have signed a pact with ITERA Oil and Gas Company of Russia for cooperation in hydrocarbon sector. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs413 and a low of Rs405 and recorded volumes of over 13,00,000 shares on NSE.

Deepak Fertilizers advanced by over 10% to Rs129 after the company launched the ‘Clean Development Mechanism Project’ at its manufacturing plant in Taloja. The project will address the widespread concern on global warming, by reducing the Green House Gas (GHG) emission through the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) which forms part of the Kyoto Protocol. The project will be implemented within a span of six months. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs134 and a low of Rs120 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.

Orchid Chemicals surged by over 6.5% to Rs245 following the company that they received USFDA approval for Granisetron Generic Formulation. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs248 and a low of Rs234 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on NSE.

Madras Cement shot up by over 6% to Rs3680 after the company announced its offer to buy back shares at Rs4,200 per piece. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs3800 and a low of Rs3515.

Gem and Jewellery stocks were in momentum after Jewelry exports from India rose 21% in the ten months ended January on back of increase in sales of diamonds. Exports rose to $16.87bn from $13.96bn a year earlier. Gitanjali Gems gained 3.2% to Rs282, Renaissance Jewellery was up 9% to Rs96 and Suraj Diamond surged 5% to Rs62.

Hindustan Zinc advanced by over 7% to Rs567 after the company said that it raised lead prices by 7.6% to reflect an increase in global rates. The company increased the price of the metal to Rs134,600 per metric ton from 14th February, a gain of Rs9,500. The price of zinc remained unchanged at Rs108,700 a ton. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs574 and a low of Rs545 and recorded volumes of over 71,000 shares on NSE.

Stocks In News:

Bhilwara Energy Ltd. (BEL) is presently developing power projects with a total capacity of about 2717 MW. BEL is also considering bidding for additional power projects and may go for a private placement. RSWM holds 24.16% stake in BEL while HEG owns 35.79%.

NTPC has has signed a Joint Venture agreement with Bihar State Electricity Board (BSEB) for building a 1980 MW (3X660MW) coal based thermal power project in Bihar. NTPC and BSEB will have equal shareholding (50:50) in the proposed JV.

Sagar Cements says it plans to establish a cement plant of around 5mn tons a year capacity in Karnataka. Apart from this, the company is also looking for setting a cement plant in Oman in joint venture with a local partner.

News Snippets:

LN Mittal and Farallon Capital invest Rs15.8bn for 28.6% stake in Indiabulls Power Services. (ET)

NTPC to invest US$40bn over the next five year, to transform itself into an integrated regional energy player. (BL)

NYSE to pick up 5% stake in MCX. (ET)

Mastek likely to buy a US-based IT firm System Task Group International for US$30mn. (ET)

Satyam Computer to add 3,000 employee’s by March end. (BS)
L&T Infotech has put its IPO plans on hold. (ET)

L&T wins an order from Qatar worth Rs3.11bn. (ET)

Haldia Petrochemicals is set to buy L&T 51% stake in HPL Cogeneration. (ET)

TCS plans to reach revenue of US$800mn-US$1bn from domestic market. (BS)

IOC to launch its marine fuel business globally. (FE)

Nirma set to mop up Rs15bn via QIP. (BS)

BHEL gets Rs2bn order from ONGC. (BS)

Wipro Infotech bags US$50mn 5 year outsourcing contract from Pantaloon retail. (BS)

Spanco Telesystems acquires Great IT for an undisclosed amount. (BS)

Orchid Chemical gets US FDA nod for Granisetron Hydrochloride tablets. (FE)

Sun Pharma receives tentative approval from US FDA for generic Depakote. (FE)

DE Shaw Valence picks up 5.7% stake in Orient Express Hotels. (FE)

Wipro may buy a German based company in next 6 months. (DNA)

Tata’s and Boeing enter into a JV, to outsource and manufacture defence-related aero space component work in India. (ET)

HPCL to shut gas oil unit at its Vizag refinery for 10 days. (DNA)

Kirloskar Brothers is looking to buy a European based pump manufacturing and marketing companies. (DNA)

Shree Cement plans to set up a cement plant of 2MT per annum at a cost of Rs20bn. (BL)

EID Parry buys 51% stake in Phytoremedies. (BL)

Jubilant Energy discovers Oil and Gas in Cauvery basin. (BL)

Maruti Alto has crossed 1mn production mark. (FE)

PFC to enter financial advisory services. (BL)

Economy Front Page

The Government hikes petrol and diesel prices by Rs2 per litre and Re1 per litre respectively. (ET)

Steel companies agree to roll back price hike with immediate effect. (ET)

The DoT plans to change spectrum usage charges levied on telecom companies, to a fix percentage of revenue for each category circles. (ET)

PM panel suggest reduction in import duty from 10% to 5% in machinery and introduction of mechanism for textile sector. (FE)

PM says Indian can sustain 9% GDP growth. (BS)

RBI denies a rate cut in short-term citing high inflation. (ET)

Agriculture ministry has proposed 1%cess on direct taxes and 2% on indirect taxes. (ET)

Export from IT and ITES based SEZ to double in FY09. (BL)

Opto Circuits, Balaji Telefilms, Parsvnath Developers, Mercator Lines, Nava Bharat Ventures, Indus Fila

Opto Circuits, Balaji Telefilms, Parsvnath Developers, Mercator Lines, Nava Bharat Ventures, Indus Fila

Nifty February 2008 futures at discount

Turnover in F&O segment rises

Nifty February 2008 futures were at 5187, at a discount of 15 points as compared to spot closing of 5202.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 37,973.36 crore, which was higher than Rs 37,555.25 crore on Wednesday, 13 February 2008.

Reliance Natural Resources February 2008 futures were near spot price, at 132, compared to the spot closing of 132.05.

Reliance Energy February 2008 futures were at premium, at 1718.75, compared to the spot closing of 1708.25.

Reliance Capital February 2008 futures were at premium, at 1999.20, compared to the spot closing of 1989.55.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty gained 272.55 points or 5.53% at 5202.

Precious metals end mixed

Gold prices close marginally higher on further hints of rate cut

Bullion metals ended mixed today, Thursday, 14 February, 2008. Gold prices closed marginally higher for the day as dollar dropped against its rivals. Dollar fell today after Federal Reserve Chairman’s comments regarding the economy. Silver prices ended lower lower for the day.

Gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the U.S. currency. Gold, as a dollar-denominated commodity, suffers from dollar strength.

Comex Gold for April delivery rose $0.60 (0.06%) to close at $911.4 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On 30 January, 2008 prices had hit a high of $941 in the after hours trading. This year, prices have gained 9.5% till date. In January, prices gained 11%, the highest monthly gain since April 2006. Last week, gold prices closed higher by $8.8 (0.96%) against previous close of $913.5.

Comex Silver futures for March today fell by 9.8 cents (0.6%) to $17.255 an ounce. Silver has gained 14.3% in 2008. The metal had climbed 16% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years. In January this year itself, prices climbed 14%.

U.S. stocks fell today after Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke said that overall economic conditions will worsen further in the coming days but good days also are not very far away.

Gold had been dropping since past couple of days after the Group of Seven officials meeting in Tokyo over the last weekend said they supported the International Monetary Fund's effort sell its gold reserves in order to invest in higher-yielding assets. The IMF is the third largest holder of gold in reserves after the U.S. Federal Reserve and the German central bank.

In the currency markets today, the dollar extended losses against most major counterparts after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank stands ready to cut interest rates further if fresh signs of a weaker-than-expected economy emerge. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the dollar against a basket of other major currencies, dropped 0.4% to 76.135.

Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices. Rising crude increases inflationary pressures and vice versa. On the other hand strong dollar reduces the appeal of the metal as alternate source of investment.

Gold witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for April delivery closed higher by Rs 3 (0.02%) at Rs 11,588 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 11,657 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 11,528 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for March delivery closed Rs 64 (0.3%) lower at Rs 22,038/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 22,105/kg and fell to a low of Rs 21,918/Kg during the day’s trading.

Crude back at $95

Prices rise more than $2 as crude inventories for last week rise less than expected

Crude prices ended substantially higher today, Thursday, 14 February, 2008. Prices rose today after Energy Department yesterday reported that that crude inventories for last week rose less than expected.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for March delivery today closed at $95.46/barrel (higher by $2.19/barrel or 2.1%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price earlier rose to an intraday high of $95.6. Prices are 65% higher than a year ago.

As per the weekly inventory report by EIA yesterday, U.S. crude inventories rose for a fifth week, up 1.1 million barrels to 301.1 million barrels in the week ending 8 February. Market was expecting a rise of 2 million barrels. U.S. crude imports averaged 9.7 million barrels per day last week, down 777,000 barrels per day from the previous week. U.S. refineries operated at 85.1% of their operable capacity last week, up from the previous week's 84.3%.

Brent crude oil for March settlement today rose $1.77 (1.9%) to $95.09 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The London benchmark rose 54% in FY 2007, the most since 1999 when prices more than doubled.

Crude had ended FY 2007 substantially higher by $35 or 57%. It was crude’s biggest yearly gain in five years.

OPEC ministers to study a proposal to price oil in a currency other than the U.S. dollar

In a monthly report released earlier this week, EIA said the world oil market is poised to ease over the next two years with production increases offsetting moderate growth in oil demand.

Natural gas price rose substantially today. Natural gas in New York advanced to the highest in 15 months as supplies of the fuel declined and on speculation the U.S. may avoid a recession, lifting demand. Natural gas for March delivery rose 38.4 cents (4.6%) to settle at $8.772 per million British thermal units. Natural gas rallies more than 17% this year

Against this backdrop, March reformulated gasoline rose 8.62 cent to $2.4761 a gallon and March heating oil gained 5.1 cents to $2.6666 a gallon.

It was also reported today that OPEC finance ministers will meet to study a proposal from Venezuela to price oil in a currency other than the U.S. dollar. Dollar’s decline against the euro over the past year has cut into the group's purchasing power.

Last Friday, two ministers of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) hinted that the cartel might go for a production cut in its next meeting at March, 2008. This spurted up crude prices and the same ended almost 4% higher on that day. At its 1 February meeting at Vienna, OPEC members decided to keep current output levels unchanged.

At the MCX, crude oil for February delivery closed at Rs 3,750/barrel, higher by Rs 41 (1.1%) against previous day’s close. Natural gas for February delivery closed at Rs 342.8/mmtbu, higher by Rs 6.9/mmtbu (2.05%).

A bad day for US Market

Worrying comments regarding economy from Fed Chief slam stocks

US stocks ended sharply lower today, Thursday, 14 February, 2008 after Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke expressed his worries about the US economy in the near term. Though market opened modestly higher in the morning, sellers took position quite soon after Bernanke’s testimony. Each of the ten economic sectors finished the session in negative territory. The day's worst performers were in the Tech sector, followed by Financials.

Before market opened today morning, Jobless claims report for the week ended 9 February came in. The figure fell to 348K from the previous reading of 357K. The number was basically in-line with expectations. Separately, the December trade deficit fell to $58.8 billion from $63.1 billion.

Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson testified before the Senate Banking Committee this afternoon. Bernanke alluded to the possibility the U.S. is nearing a recession and continued to emphasize downside risks to the economy. He clearly indicated that the Fed will likely continue to ease interest rates, if required. The duo also continued to forecast slow growth. The Fed Chairman stated that financial companies will likely face further write-downs.

The Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a loss of 175 points at 12,375. The Nasdaq Composite Index, finished lower by 41 points at 2,332. S&P 500 finished lower by 18.3 points at 1,349.

Twenty-nine out of thirty Dow stocks ended in the red today. Chipmaker Intel led the group of Dow laggards which was closely followed by other financial stocks. American Express, JP Morgan, AIG and Citigroup – all slipped by more than 2%. Exxon Mobil was the Dow’s sole winner.

Crude prices ended substantially higher today after Energy Department yesterday reported that that crude inventories for last week rose less than expected. Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for March delivery today closed at $95.46/barrel (higher by $2.19/barrel or 2.1%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price earlier rose to an intraday high of $95.6. Prices are 65% higher than a year ago.

Volume on the New York Stock Exchange came to 1.4 billion shares, and for every stock on the rise, four posted declines. On the Nasdaq, nearly 2.3 billion traded and declines topped advancers by ratios of more than 3 to 1.

Tomorrow will be a day of economic reports. The New York Empire Manufacturing Survey and Import and Export Prices report coupled with the Industrial Production report are due before tomorrow’s open. After the opening bell, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey is scheduled for release.

Market Close: Mighty Bull enjoy's valentines day...

It was significant flying day for all the indices across the globe. The markets celebrated the Valentine day in the positive momentum. The overnight rally in US fueled the support across the globe, Asian markets ended strong. Nikkei ended up by 4.27% and Hang Seng closed up by 3.68%. As result of this Indian indices recovered enormously after witnessing a bear session for last few sessions. The strong value buying in index heavy weights kept indices head-up for entire day. Sensex opened in gap up of 560 points and made intraday gain of 890 points. Strong buying was seen in most of the sectors like Power, Realty, Capital Goods and Oil & Gas cheered the day.

Oil marketing companies were in focus on the back of price hike announcement from the Oil ministry of Rs 2 per Lt for Petrol and Rs 1 per Lt for Diesel, but this was not certainly good for Cement, Transportation, Logistics and Tyre companies and also it will affect the inflation which is a concern under control. Markets remained steady in the flight ensuing uptrend sessions, neither climbing much higher nor losing strength. However towards the closing hour indices also witnessed a final flourish. Mid and small caps closed inline with the frontline indices. European markets trading in strong.

Sensex closed up by 817 points at 17766.631. It was helped up by gains in BHEL (2232,+13 percent), Rel Energy (1708.15,+10 percent), RCVL (609.75,+9 percent), Hindalco (163.75,+9 percent) and ONGC (1025.7,+9 percent). Restricting the gains are Infosys (1547.3,0 percent).

Jain Irrigation and Mekorot, the national water company of Israel signed an MOU to work together on water projects in India. The two companies say they plan to explore projects in desalination, water resource management, water supply, municipal water management and/or wastewater treatment and reclamation projects. Growing urban populations in India have made existing capacities of water treatment, waste water treatment and recycling inadequate. Mekorot is a leader in water resources management, desalination, wastewater treatment and effluent reuse, rain enhancement, water quality, water security and water project engineering. It supplies 80% of Israel's drinking water and 70% of its entire water supply, operating 3,000 installations across the country. Jain Irrigation has been involved in water distribution and water conservation in India for three decades. The company's customers include water utility boards, municipal corporations, contractors as well as farmers across India. This helps Jain Irrigation to get technology and timely execution at competitive prices. We feel in India under investment in this sector, this could be one of the vertical growth to the company. The stock closed up by 3% at Rs 649.

Blue Star announced the acquisition of Bangalore-based Naseer Electricals for a consideration up to Rs 42 cr including upfront payment and debt and escrow amount payable on fulfillment of certain conditions. The move will enable Blue Star, which is the leader in central air conditioning in the country, to deliver integrated mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP) contracting projects for the commercial building and infrastructure segments. Naseer Electricals is an electrical contracting firm with a turnover of Rs 107 cr (FY07) and a strong presence in South India. The current order book is approximately Rs 100 cr, majority of which is expected to be executed over a period of one year. With this acquisition, Blue Star gets capability to deliver integrated mechanical, electrical & plumbing (MEP) contracting projects for the commercial building and infrastructure segments. This is certainly good for the company; it can acquire south Indian market too. The stock closed up by 8%.

Technically Speaking: Market breadth was very encouraging and traded strong with an intraday high of 17,837 and low of 17,265. The overall breadth was in favor of Advances, while Advances stood at 2065 and Declines at 685. Volumes for the day were not encourging at Rs 5714 Cr. The Sensex likely to fill the gap of 18280-18480 before turning down again. Sensex Support lies at 17200 while the Resistance lies at 18400-18480 levels.