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Tuesday, January 23, 2007

Market Close: Custom Cut bring in Profit booking

Government nod for cut in custom duty brought in selling in Indian Indices and weakness in Global markets added fuel to the fall. FNO Expiry too kept Indian Indices to trade weak. Selling intensified in Cement, Banking stocks along with Engineering, Construction, Automobile, Energy, Pharma and Software. Heavyweights like Bharti and Hindalco were the gainers while selective Mid caps and Small caps saw buying interest on the back of good results. The Asian markets traded mixed for the day and also European Markets currently trading mixed.

Sensex clsoed down by 168 points at 14041.24. Weighing on the Sensex are losses in ACC (1037,-7 percent), Guj Ambuja (136.9,-7 percent), Dr Reddys (770,-5 percent), SBI (1173.95,-4 percent) and Grasim (2805.3501,-3 percent). Losses are restricted by gains in Bharti Tele (689.15,+2 percent), Hindalco (164.95,+0 percent).

Maruti results for the 3Q were not spectacular. Net profits at Rs 376 cr up 11%, The lower-than-expected profit was due to adjustment on account of the merger of wholly-owned subsidiary Maruti Suzuki Automobiles India (MSAIL) with effect from April 1, 2006. MSAIL's Rs 54.6-crore loss had the profits down. The sentiment however turned positive on its intention to launch the diesel Swift, in the next couple of days. The government stake sale is another trigger. MUL has been aggressive in discounting to get sales with risks coming in fom higher material costs, rising interest rates, increasing competitive intensity. However valuations at 16 times FY07 earnings seems to offer scope given the fact that this Diesel initiative could kick off well. Telco dominates the Diesel car segment which is growing rapidly.

SBI has declared its Q3 results for FY07. Its third quarter Net Profit stood at Rs 1,065 cr down by 4.5% vs Rs 1,115.1 cr yoy. The company's Net profit (excluding exceptional) was at Rs 1065 cr vs loss of Rs 620 cr. SBI had extraordinary income of Rs 2,048 cr in Q3 last year. Its Q3 NII has gone down by 6.4% at Rs 3951 cr against Rs 4219.8 cr yoy. The NII (Excluding Extraordinary Income) was up by 46% at Rs 3951 cr. SBI provisions and contingencies stood at Rs 1166 cr compared to Rs 470 cr. Banks CAR was at 11.86% vs 12.49%. The Banking sector results were not much encouraging as rising deposit rates had impacted their Net profits. The Bank stocks closed in red and SBI closed down by 4.5%.

Technically Speaking: Sensex traded weak as selling intensified till the closing. Sensex touched intraday high of 14212 and low of 14025. Market turnover stood decent at Rs 4040 cr. Overall breadth was in favor Declines where Declines stood at 1723 and advances stood at 913. The Resistance level was at 14156 -14277 while Support at 13969 -13904 levels.

FII: +Rs 319.80cr, MFs - Rs 54.23cr

FII Gross purchases Rs 2236.20 Cr Gross Sellers Rs 1916.40 Cr Net Buyers Rs 319.80 Cr.
MF Gross Purchases Rs 468.40 Cr Gross Sellers Rs 522.63 Cr Net Sellers Rs 54.23 Cr.

Our View:

Market continued to range ahead of F&O week.. One can say it is a consolidation process.. Moment ahead will be directed by liquidity inflow..

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Market takes a hit

The market exhibited nervousness throughout the trading session. It witnessed a correction as weak Asian markets and flat US indices dampened the sentiment. After opening weak at 14212, the Sensex declined further under the selling pressure in heavyweights, banking, cement and pharma stocks. The decent earnings from several Sensex stocks failed to help the Sensex to recover from its losses. As trading progressed the Sensex lost its strength and slipped further towards the close to touch the intra-day low of 14026. The Sensex finally ended the session with losses of 168 points at 14041, while the Nifty shed 36 points and closed at 4066.

The broader market remained weak. Of the 2,679 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,722 stocks declined, 899 stocks advanced and 58 stocks ended unchanged. All the sectoral indices ended in negative territory. The BSE Bankex index dropped 2.17% to 7315, the BSE HC index shed 1.66% to 3834 and the BSE CD index was down 1.53% to 3802.

Among the major losers, ACC slumped 7.06% to Rs1,037, Gujarat Ambuja dropped 6.88% to Rs137, Dr Reddy's Lab shed 4.93% to Rs770, SBI lost 4.10% at Rs1174, Grasim declined 2.93% at Rs2,810 and HDFC Bank slipped by 2.50% at Rs1,030. NTPC tumbled 2.31% at Rs135, Maruti Udyog declined 2.05% at Rs919, Tata Motors lost 1.49% at Rs950 and Reliance Communication slipped 1.42% at Rs441. However, Bharti Airtel gained 1.89% at Rs689 and Hindalco rose 0.30% at Rs165.

The banking stocks came under sharp selling pressure. UTI Bank tumbled by 6.60% at Rs509, Canara Bank slipped 5.22% at Rs249, Kotak Bank slumped 4.09% at Rs462, BOI fell 3.94% at Rs196, PNB declined 2.14% at Rs515, Union Bank shed 1.62% at Rs116, Indian Overseas Bank was down 1.41% at Rs112 and ICICI Bank slipped 1.24% at Rs965.

Over 32.95 Crompton Greaves shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Ispat Industries (32.46 lakh shares), Cairn India (29.38 lakh shares), Dena Bank (19.70 lakh shares) and Welspun Gujarat (18.81 lakh shares).

Value-wise SBI registered a turnover of Rs115 crore on the BSE followed by Reliance Communication (Rs75 crore), India Cement (Rs56 crore), Gujarat Ambuja Cement (Rs55 crore) and Bharat Forge (Rs53 crore).

Cement, banks, FMCG stocks fall headlong

The Sensex, which had opened weak, kept sliding as the day progressed. Squaring up of long positions and covering of short positions today itself, ahead of the expiry of January 2007 derivatives contracts on Thursday (25 January 2007), contributed to the fall. Shares of cement makers, banks and FMCG firms were the major losers.

The 30-shares BSE Sensex lost 168 points (1.18%), to end at 14,041.24. It had opened a bit higher, at 14,212.12 (also the day’s high), but started declining due to heavy selling. It also plunged to a low of 14,025.74, in the late-afternoon session of trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was down 36.35 points (0.89%), to 4,066.10.

The market-breadth was weak, as a host of small-cap and mid-cap stocks came under pressure. For 1,723 shares that declined, only 913 advanced and 60 scrips remained unchanged on BSE.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 4040 crore, higher than Rs 3,719 crore on Monday.

Among the 30-Sensex pack, 28 declined and only 2 eked out gains.

Cement shares were drubbed by the lifting of customs duty on all varieties of the commodity. ACC (down 6.97% to Rs 1038) was the top loser. It had also slipped to a low of Rs 1031.

Gujarat Ambuja Cements tanked 6.78% to Rs 136.80. It had slipped to a low of Rs 135.10. The counter clocked 39.13 lakh shares on BSE.

Other cement shares to suffer were Grasim (down 2.93% to Rs 2810), Mangalam Cement (down 8.93% to Rs 224.35), Mysore Cement (down 6.97% to Rs 62), Birla Corporation (down 7.83% to Rs 338), Ultratech Cement (down 4.65% to Rs 1060), Shree Cement (down 4.54% to Rs 1425), JK Lakshmi Cement (down 4.42% to Rs 173.15), Anjani Portland (down 13.53% to Rs 36.10), India Cement (down 8.73% to Rs 220.65) and Madras Cement (down 4.86% to Rs 3455).

The customs duty on all varieties of cement, except white cement, has been cut to zero from 12.5%. Analysts reckon that cement prices in only a few regions, mainly restricted to Bangladesh, and to some extent Sri Lanka, could be impacted due to increase in imports following the lifting of the import duty. Cement being a bulky commodity, freight costs account for a large portion of its retail cost. Prices in the interior regions are unlikely to be affected as a result.

Dr Reddy’s Lab (DRL) plunged 5.28% to Rs 767.10, after results missed street expectations. The drugmaker reported a surge in net profit in December 2006 quarter after trading hours on Monday. However, the stock managed to recover from a low of Rs 772.

The Hyderabad-based drugmaker, which acquired Germany's Betapharm last year, said quarterly net profit rose to Rs 188 crore from Rs 62.80 crore in December 2005 quarter. Total revenue jumped to Rs 1540 crore from Rs 590 crore.

DRL's foreign acquisitions and better sales of generics in the United States drove growth, while overseas sales are seen rising as drugs with annual sales of $30 billion are likely to go off patent in the next two years. Dr Reddy's Labs generics revenue rose to Rs 768 crore from Rs 83.10 crore.

PSU bank SBI declined 4.53% to Rs 1168.75. Its third quarter net profit stood at Rs 1,065 crore, down 4.5% from Rs 1,115.1 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The bank’s net profit (excluding exceptional items) was at Rs 1065 crore versus loss of Rs 620 crore. SBI had extraordinary income of Rs 2,048 crore in Q3 last year. Its Q3 NII declined 6.4% to Rs 3951 crore (Rs 4219.8 crore). The NII (Excluding Extraordinary Income) was up 46%, to Rs 3,951 crore.

SBI's provisions and contingencies stood at Rs 1166 crore, compared to Rs 470 crore in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. SBI's CAR was 11.86% versus 12.49%.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) was down 1.05% to Rs 1359, on a volume of 3.65 lakh shares. It had also struck a high of Rs 1381.

Bharti Airtel was the top gainer, up 1.60% to Rs 687.15, on a volume of 3.93 lakh shares. The company posted a net profit of Rs 1043.69 crore for the quarter ended December 2006, compared to Rs 538.68 crore for the quarter ended December 2005. Total revenue increased to Rs 4723.68 crore (Rs 2936.03 crore).

A solid surge in user base in the world's fastest growing mobile market, sent Bharti Airtel's shares to a life high of Rs 700.80. The company’s consolidated net profit, as per Indian GAAP, zoomed over 90% to Rs 1,033.34 crore for the third quarter ended December 2006, when compared with Rs 543.54 crore in the quarter ended December 2005.

Chairman Sunil Mittal said demand for telecom services continued to be strong. The company, India's top mobile services firm, added five million new subscribers in the three months to December, the highest-ever in a quarter.

The board of Bharti Airtel approved transferring the company's towers for mobile communications and related infrastructure, to a wholly-owned subsidiary, Bharti Infratel, for better operational efficiency.

The company also announced commencement of Direct-To-Home (DTH) services to address the fast-growing home entertainment segment through Bharti Telemedia, another wholly-owned subsidiary. It also approved acquisition of a submarine network cable system from Network i2i (jointly owned by Singtel and a Bharti group company) for an overall consideration of $ 110 million.

The BSE Bankex fell 162.09 points (2.17%), to 7,314.61. UTI Bank (down 7.25% to Rs 505.60), Canara Bank (down 5.03% to Rs 249.20), Bank of India (down 4.11% to Rs 196), Kotak Mahindra Bank (down 4.54% to Rs 460), and Bank of Maharashta (down 3.76% to Rs 44.75), ended with losses.

The FMCG index slipped 21.91 points ( 1.11%), to 1,954.15. Colgate (down 4.06% to Rs 359.15), ITC (down 1.67% to Rs 176.15), Marico (down 1.46% to Rs 556.10), HLL (down 0.78% to Rs 222.35), Dabur India (down 1.17% to Rs 160.10), Tata Tea (down 1.07% to Rs 722), and P&G (down 0.86% to Rs 892) declined.

Among side-counters, Geodesic Information Systems rose 0.55% to Rs 245.35, after its board approved merger of the Bangalore-based wholly-owned subsidiary, Picopeta Simputers, with the company. The board also approved purchasing 100% stake in Chandamama India. Geodesic reported Q3 net profit of Rs 24.3 crore for the quarter ended December 2006, compared to Rs 21.7 crore for the quarter ended September 2006 (QoQ). Net sales increased to Rs 45.3 crore (Rs 39.1 crore).

Torrent Cables surged 5.89% to Rs 167.20. It had posted 65.6% growth in net profit for Dec-2006 quarter to Rs 7.02 crore (Rs 4.24 crore). Net sales jumped 55.1% to Rs 50.73 crore (Rs 32.70 crore).

Branded apparel major Kewal Kiran Clothing plunged 8.58% to Rs 242, after a mere 7.7% growth in net profit for Dec-2006 quarter. Kewal Kiran Clothing (KKCL)’s net profit rose 7.7% in December 2006, to Rs 3.62 crore (Rs 3.36 crore). Net sales rose 20.6% to Rs 31.56 crore (Rs 26.16 crore).

The company, however, said the results were not strictly comparable. After restructuring, the apparel manufacturing and marketing business is vested in the company. The results for FY-2006 (year ended 31 March 2006) includes the effect of the above for part of the year, and hence the previous year figures are not strictly comparable, the company warned.

National Aluminium Company gained 4.14% to Rs 221.50, on reporting 46% growth in net profit for Dec-2006 quarter to Rs 572.60 crore (Rs 393.03 crore). Net sales rose 9.3% to Rs 1448.57 crore (Rs 1324.91 crore). Nalco posted results after trading hours on Monday (22 January 2007).

Zee Entertainment Enterprises surged 4.6% to Rs 316.10. On Monday, Zee had reported 175% surge in net profit in December 2006 quarter, to Rs 87.53 crore (Rs 31.86 crore). The scrip rose 2.3% to Rs 301.95 on Monday (22 January) following announcement of results during trading hours.

Asahi India Glass rose 4% to Rs 142.35, after the company reported a surge in net profit in December 2006 quarter, to Rs 13.92 crore (Rs 2.88 crore).

Orchid Chemicals rose 4% to Rs 225.40, after its betalactam unit in Maharashtra received regulatory approval from the UK. The approval for this plant, from UK's Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency, will help Orchid market its betalactam product, Piperacillin-Tazobactam, across Europe.

TRF jumped 9% to Rs 468, after the company posted 154.4% surge in net profit for Dec-2006 quarter to Rs 4.96 crore (Rs 1.95 crore). Net sales rose 100.1% to Rs 80.37 crore (Rs 40.16 crore).

Suven Life Sciences jumped 5% to Rs 167.25, after its board decided to consider sub-division of equity shares along with a bonus issue on 29 Jan 2007.

The Central Government on Monday cut customs duty on key inputs with immediate effect. The customs duty on ferro-alloys stainless steel and other alloy steel was cut to 5% from 7.5%; calcined alumina to 5% from 7.5%; pipes and tubes of aluminium, copper and zinc to 7.5% from 12.5%.

Other cuts include project imports to 7.5% from 12.5%; specified capital goods and their parts to 7.5% from 12.5%. The reduced customs duty of 7.5% on project import has now been extended to airport development and metro rail projects. A government statement read the step will reduce the cost of manufacturing and infrastructure development.

The Nikkei average closed little changed on Tuesday, as Nippon Steel Corp jumped after a rival hiked product price, offsetting losses in tech shares including Advantest Corp.

The tech-sensitive Nikkei ended down 15.61 points (0.09%), at 17,408.57, after rising as high as 17,442.00 late in the afternoon. The broader TOPIX index added 0.02% to 1,730.76.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 77 crore on Friday (19 January), the day when the Sensex lost 35 points. FIIs have resumed buying after heavy inflows earlier during the month, which triggered a sharp market fall. FIIs were net buyers in 6 out of 7 trading sessions, from 11 January to 19 January. As per provisional data, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 218 crore on Monday (22 January), the day when the Sensex rose 27 points.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 288 crore in index-based futures on 22 January. They were net sellers to the tune of Rs 85 crore in individual stock futures that day.

US stocks slid on Monday as investors sold shares of technology firms on worries about their earnings outlook, while a brokerage downgrade hurt shares of aircraft maker Boeing Company, pushing the blue-chip Dow average down to record its steepest one-day drop in two months.

The Dow Jones fell 88.37 points, or 0.70%, to end at 12,477.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 7.55 points, or 0.53%, to finish at 1,422.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 20.24 points, or 0.83%, to close at 2,431.07.

Oil prices slipped slightly in Asian trading hours due to a build-up in US stockpiles, easing concerns about heating fuel demand during the winter in the northern hemisphere.

The New York Mercantile Exchange's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in March, was down $0.04 at $52.54 a barrel, from its level of $52.58 in late trading in the US overnight. The February contract expired at $51.13. Brent North Sea crude for March was at $54.64, down $0.06.

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PowerYourTrade Trading Calls

Ashwani Gujral

Buy Glenmark Pharma with stop loss of Rs 600 for target of Rs 750

Buy Eicher Motors with a stop loss of Rs 340 for target of Rs 500

Deepak Mohoni

Short sell Glaxo Pharma above Rs 1130 with stop loss of Rs 1155. Its an intra-day recommendation.

Buy Rolta below Rs 321 with stop loss of Rs 313; Its an intra-day recommendation.

Rajat K Bose

Buy JB Chemicals around the last close with a stop loss below Rs 99.80 for target of Rs 113

Buy Centurion Bank around the last close with a stop loss below Rs 33.90 for target of Rs 40.

Intra-day Stock Ideas

NIFTY (4102) SUP 4092 RES 4124

BUY ITC (179)
SL 176 T 188, 190

SL 194 T 206, 208

BUY BRFL (218.75)
SL 213 T 227, 229

SELL SCI (176.25)
@ 178 SL 182 T 168, 165

@ 211 SL 215 T 200, 198

Indiainfoline - Research Desk

Shree Cements (SCL) – Q3 FY07

CMP: Rs1,489.90

Target: Rs1,726

Rating: BUY

Cement dispatches increased sharply in Q3FY07 by 79.5% yoy to 1.29mn ton. On qoq basis the same increased by 16.7%. Capacity utilization of the enhanced capacity touched 116% for the quarter. SCL increased its clinker to cement conversion ratio from 1.36 in Q2FY07 to 1.41 in Q3FY07. We expect cement volumes to clock 6.23mn ton in FY08 as 1.5mn ton integrated cement plant is expected to go on line from FY07 end at Unit 4and Unit 5 with 1.2mn ton clinker capacity with split grinding capacity of 2 mn ton is expected to come on line from Dec 2007.

SCL’s realization per ton increased yoy by 40.7% in line with the industry to Rs2817, in Q3FY07. On qoq basis it fell from Rs2849, as SCL tested new markets during the quarter. On yoy basis operating margin improved by 1400 bps to 43.9% in Q3FY07, but eased from 45.2% recorded in Q2FY07. Fall in realization coupled with increased freight cost to venture new pockets has brought down the operating margin. We expect operating margins to improve in the coming quarter as realization improves in the peak construction period and freight expenses coming back to normal levels.

SCL’s CMP of Rs1482 discounts our estimated EPS of Rs109.8 and Rs143.8 for FY07P and FY08P by 13.5x and 10.3x respectively. We expect SCL to command better valuations going forward with multifold increase in capacities and increase in blending ratio. We rate the stock as BUY with a target of Rs1726. Our target price discounts FY08 estimated earnings by 12x and EV/EBIDTA by 7.7x.


Swinging Tuesday in store

When the doors of opportunity swing open, we must make sure that we are not too drunk or too indifferent to walk through.

The success or failure in the market may have intoxicated minds and caused a sense of dizziness, similar to how the indices are feeling. Today, we expect a circumspect opening, given the mixed trend in global markets. Thereafter, the market is likely to turn volatile again. Any dip could open an opportunity to invest for the medium to long term. So ensure that you don't miss the opportunity to book profits at higher levels are take position at relatively lower levels.

Despite the slowdown in FII inflows of late, the market has managed to stay firm, though there has been a lot of intra-day volatility. The choppiness is likely to continue ahead of the F&O expiry on Thursday. The undertone remains mostly positive though, spurred by the strong show by India Inc. in the latest quarter. Stability in global markets, coupled with lower oil prices has also lent good support. Valuations still remain a major cause for worry, especially for the large caps. Select small- and mid-cap shares have done well in the recent past, and may build on those gains as investors switch focus from frontline scrips.

Though the F&O rollover has not been that strong, it is likely to pick up pace soon. Already, players have started to cover their short positions in the derivative segment, and more could be in the offing.

Sun Pharma could gain. It's US subsidiary, Caraco Pharma has won a patent infringement suit against Ortho-McNeil Pharmaceutical. Champagne Indage may rise amid reports that it has bought a company in Australia. Maruti could attract some attention as the company is launching a diesel version of the Swift hatchback this week. Unitech is likely to advance after a financial daily reported that it will tie up with Goldman Sachs to set up a Special Purpose Vehicle to invest in the real estate sector. JSW Steel, which has announced good results, might gain as its subsidiary is likely to acquire a mining company in Indonesia. Suzlon will be in the limelight. The company is likely to bag orders worth Rs9bn, says a business newspaper.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs2.18bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday. In the F&O segment too, they pumped in Rs2.53bn. On Friday, foreign funds were net buyers at Rs768mn. Mutual Funds, however pulled out Rs4.02bn from the cash segment on the same day.

Major Bulk Deals: UBS has bought Pyramid Saimira; SBI MF has picked up RPG Transmission.

Results Today:
SBI, Tata Motors, UB, ABG Shipyard, Adlabs, BEML, Bharti Airtel, BEL, Ceat, Cipla, Dabur Pharma, DS Kulkarni, Educomp, Gitanjali Gems, Glenmark, Grasim, GTL, India Infoline, Indian Hotels, IPCA, Kesoram, Mangalam Cement, Mahindra Gesco, Neyveli Lignite, Nitco Tiles and Opto Circuits.

US stocks closed lower on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 88.37 points at 12,477.16 while the broader S&P 500 dropped 7.55 points to 1,422.95, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 20.24 points to 2,431.07.

Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 4.76% from 4.77% late on Friday. The dollar gained versus the yen and euro. COMEX gold fell $2.30 to settle at $634.10 an ounce.

Crude oil prices zigzagged, initially tracking a surge in natural gas amid forecasts for below-average temperatures across much of the US and then gave up gains ahead of the expiration of the front-month contract. January crude futures finished down 86 cents at $51.13 a barrel. The February contract was quoting 13 cents lower at $52.45 in extended trading in Asia.

European stocks couldn't hold on to early gains. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index closed 0.4% lower at 372.80 after touching multi-year highs earlier in the session. The UK's FTSE 100 closed 0.3% lower at 6,218.40, the French CAC-40 dropped 0.6% to 5,579.78 and the German DAX Xetra 30 dived 0.9% to 6,687.31.

Asian stocks were down this morning. The Nikkei in Tokyo fell 36 points to 17,387 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong shed 93 points to 20,679. The Kospi in Seoul was flat at 1363 and the Straits Times in Singapore declined 12 points to 3132. In Emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil gained 0.3% to 43,553 and the RTS index in Russia jumped 1.6% to 1841.

Market Volumes:
The turnover on NSE was down by 16.3% to Rs75.74bn.BSE FMCG index was the major gainers and gained 1.32%. BSE Consumer Durable index (up 0.94%), BSE Auto index (up 0.55%) and BSE Technology index (up 0.49%) were among the other major gainers. However, BSE Oil & Gas index lost 0.51%.

Volume Toppers:
IFCI, Nagarjuna Fertilizers, SAIL, Satyam Computer, DCB, ITC, Hindustan Motors, Ispat Industries, IDFC, Ashok Leyland, India Cements, Polaris, R Com, Ceat, HCC and Tech Mahindra.

Upper Circuit Filters:
Crisil, Flex Industries, Heritage Foods, HOV Services, Nesco Ltd, Ganesh Housing and Suven Life.

Delivery Delight:
Adlabs Films, ACC, Bank of India, BHEL, BRFL, CEAT, Gammon India, Glenmark, HCL Technologies, India Infoline, ING Vysya Bank, INOX Leisure, J B Chemicals, Jet Airways, Maruti, Nagarjuna Construction, NDTV, Pratibha Industries, Punjab National Bank, Suzlon Energy, Taneja Aerospace, Tata Motors, Tata Power, VSNL and Zee Telefilms.

Brokers Recommendations:
Suzlon Energy - Buy from Merrill Lynch with target of Rs1650
Bharti Shipyard – Buy from Emkay with target of Rs554

Long Term Investment:
IVRCL Infrastructures.

Major News Headlines:
Maruti Q3 profit at Rs3.76bn (up 11%), sales at Rs38.64bn (up 18%)
Nalco Q3 profit at Rs5.72bn (up 46%), sales 14.48bn (up 9.3%)
RIL says has no plans to spin off KG basin oil and gas fields
Pratibha Industries gets Rs1.22bn AAI order
Welspun Gujarat wins orders worth Rs10.5bn
Kale Consultants gets order from Yemenia Airlines
Adlabs completes purchase of Synergy Communications
Colgate Q3 profit at Rs503.4mn (up 21%); revenues at Rs3.39bn (up 14%)
Kotak Mahindra Bank Q3 profit at Rs454mn (up 39%), income at Rs4.53bn (up 96%)
JSW Steel Q3 profit at Rs3.62bn (up 160%), sales at Rs23bn (up 160%)
India Cements Q3 profit at Rs797.8mn vs Rs72.2mn; total income at Rs4.74bn (up 35%)

How Market Fared

Slim gains on Dalal Street

Volatile session ended with marginal gains. The markets started off well following strong cues from the Asian Markets and lower crude oil prices which hovered around the $52 per barrel mark the key indices lost ground as the markets witnessed volatility and selling pressure. The bank, Oil & Gas and Capital Good stocks dragged the key indices lower. However, frontline stocks like Infosys, BHEL, ITC, Tata Motors, HLL and TCS held the markets from a fall aiding the key indices to end with gains. Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex added 26 points to close at 14209. NSE Nifty was up by 12 points to close at 4102.

Jet Airways surged higher by 7% to Rs774 after the company registered its first profit in three quarters, company posts Net profit of Rs400.4mn (down 34%) for the quarter ended Dec 31, 2006. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs798 and a low of Rs721 and recorded volumes of over 10,00,000 shares on NSE.

Maruti shifted in top gear, the scrip spurred by nearly over 3% to Rs938. The company announced its Q3 result with net income at Rs3.76bn (up 11%) and net sales at Rs38.64bn (up 18%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs944 and a low of Rs893 and recorded volumes of over 23,00,000 shares on NSE.

FMCG stocks were in the limelight. Cigarette major ITC rose nearly by 2% to Rs178, HLL was up by 1.3% to Rs224, Britannia gained 1.3% to Rs1129 and Tata Tea added 0.6% to Rs729.

Cement stocks recorded smart gains amid reports of another round of price hike. Frontline stock ACC advanced 0.6% to Rs1115, Grasim gained 0.7% to Rs2909 and Kakatia Cement was up by 1.6% to Rs119. However, Gujarat Ambuja fell 1.5% to Rs146.

The Power stocks ended with smart gains. Suzlon Energy gained 2.5% to Rs1292 and Tata power was up 1.8% to Rs589. However, Reliance Energy lost 1.6% Rs506.

Tyre stocks also were in the limelight. Ceat rallied over 13% to Rs158 ahead of its result to be announced tomorrow and MRF advanced 2% to Rs4300.

Banking stocks ended lower on back of selling pressure. Frontline stocks HDFC Bank and ICICI bank were among the major losers. Among the Mid-Cap stocks OBC dropped 1% to Rs224, Bank of Baroda was down 0.7% to Rs233 and Union Bank dipped 0.8% to Rs117 were among the major losers.

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Market may remain edgy

While encouraging earnings from several companies helped the market register gains in yesterday's trades, the sentiment is expected to be driven by earnings expectations and movement in the global indices. The market is likely to resume on a weak note as US Markets are down nearly by a percent in the overnight trades followed by mixed Asian indices in morning trades . However, the current net inflow from the funds remains a cause of concern as institutional investors remained shy for last couple of days and expectations of decent quarterly earnings could make the investors jittery but fall in international crude oil prices could ease the pressure.

On the upside, the Nifty could test its all-time high around the 4140 level and may witness support around the 4070 level. The Sensex has a likely support at 14120 and may test higher levels of 14260. Among the major results SBI, Bharti Airtel, Tata Moters , Gitanjali Gems and Cipla are expected to announce their numbers.

Worries of corporate earnings and heavy selling in technology stocks took the toll on the key US bourses on Monday. While the Dow Jones slipped by 88 points at 12477, the Nasdaq slumped 20 points to close at 2431.

Most of the Indian ADRs barring few closed in the red on the US bourses. Rediff slumped 4.88% and Dr Reddy's lab declined over 2.37% and ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Patni Computers, MTNL closed with the marginal losses. However, VSNL gained 1.48%, Tata Moters advanced 1.24% , and Wipro added 1.25% and Infosys moved up 1.09% .

Crude oil prices in the global market extended their downward trend, with the Nymex light crude oil for February series slipping 86 cents at $51.13 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for February delivery moved down by $2.30 to settle at $634.10 a troy ounce.

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Emkay - Morning Notes + Satyam Computers, KPIT Cummins, Bharat Forge, Kirloskar Oil Engines

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Market to take direction from prominent Q3 results

A number of top firms are announcing Q3 results today. These include State Bank of India, Tata Motors, Grasim, Bharti Airtel, Cipla and Indian Hotels. The market will take direction from how these prominent results shape in.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 77 crore on Friday 19 January, the day when Sensex had lost 35 points. FIIs have resumed buying after their heavy inflows earlier during the month which had triggered a sharp market fall. FIIs were net buyers in 6 out of 7 trading session from 11 January to 19 January. As per provisional data, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 218 crore on Monday 22 January, the day when Sensex had risen 27 points.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 288 crore in index-based futures on 22 January. They were net sellers to the tune of Rs 85 crore in individual stock futures on that day.

Volatility may remain high on the bourses in the run up to the expiry of January 2007 derivatives contracts on Thursday (25 January 2007).

Meanwhile, the centre late on Monday cut customs duty on key inputs with immediate effect. The customs duty on portland cement was cut to zero from 12.5 percent; ferro-alloys stainless steel and other alloy steel to 5 percent from 7.5 percent; calcined alumina to 5 percent from 7.5 percent; pipes and tubes of aluminium, copper and zinc to 7.5 percent from 12.5 percent.

Other cuts included: project imports to 7.5 percent from 12.5 percent; specified capital goods and their parts to 7.5 percent from 12.5 percent. The reduced customs duty of 7.5% has been extended on project import to airport development and metro rail projects. A government statement said the step had been taken with a view to reduce the cost of manufacturing and infrastructure development.

Asian stocks fell on Tuesday, led by Japanese technology shares on worries about the earnings outlook for the sector. They came under pressure also due to slide in their US peers on Monday. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore were down by between 0.05% to 0.4%. Key indices in South Korea and Taiwan bucked the trend and were up slightly.

US stocks slid on Monday as investors sold off shares of technology firms on worries about their earnings outlook, while a brokerage downgrade hurt shares of aircraft maker Boeing Company, pushing the blue-chip Dow average down to record its steepest one-day drop in two months. The Dow Jones fell 88.37 points, or 0.70 percent, to end at 12,477.16. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 7.55 points, or 0.53 percent, to finish at 1,422.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 20.24 points, or 0.83 percent, to close at 2,431.07.

Oil eased, continuing the previous day's decline amid robust stockpiles in consumer nations. Crude had spiked on Friday on colder weather in the US northeast, the world's top market for heating oil, but on Monday resumed a sell-off that has seen prices fall around 16 percent since the start of the year. NYMEX crude for March delivery was down 11 cents at $52.47 a barrel on Tuesday.

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IDBI Capital - Morning Alert

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IDBI Capital - Oriental Hotels

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Sharekhan Investor's Eye dated January 22, 2007

Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,240
Current market price: Rs977

Price target revised to Rs1,240

Result highlights

  • ICICI Bank's Q3FY2007 net profit at Rs910 crore was much above our and market expectations. The net profit saw a growth of 42.2% year on year (yoy) against our expectation of a 26.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth. The robust performance was driven mainly by a very high growth in the fee income and the other income compared with our expectations. Despite a rise of 125.6% in the provisions, the profit growth was very strong on the back of a 65.4% growth in the operating profit.
  • The net interest income (NII) grew by 31.9% yoy to Rs1,708.8 crore. What's impressive is that in Q3FY2006 the NII included a securitisation income excluding which the y-o-y NII growth stands at 53%.
  • The other income grew by 68% yoy to Rs1,980.6 crore, of which the core fee income grew by a strong 52.7% yoy to Rs1,345 crore.
  • The operating profit was up by a strong 65.4% on the back of a good NII growth and a sharp rise in the fee income. The operating expenses increased in line with the business growth.
  • The provisions increased by 125.6% mainly due to higher provisions for the non-performing assets (NPAs). The asset quality deteriorated as non-collateralised retail loan products like credit cards reported defaults. The gross non-performing asset (GNPA) increased by Rs650 crore on a sequential basis and the net non-performing asset (NNPA) also increased in absolute and percentage terms.
  • The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) stood at 13.4%, with the Tier-I CAR at 8.63%. Incorporating the Basel II guidelines the Tier-I CAR would be 9.5% and we feel the bank can maintain its current growth rates without any dilution in the medium term.
  • We have revised our FY2007 and FY2008 estimates based on the bank's improved performance on the non-interest income front. We have also factored in the higher provisions that may be made in future in view of the signs of deterioration in the retail loan book. We have revised the FY2007 and FY2008 profit after tax (PAT) estimates by 2.9% and 2.4% to Rs3,375.7 crore and Rs4,041.9 crore respectively. We have also introduced our FY2009 numbers as we believe that slowly the market would start factoring in the FY2009 financials.
  • At the current market price of Rs977, the stock is quoting at 17.5x its FY2009E earnings per share (EPS), 7.2x its pre-provisioning profits (PPP) and 2.8x book value (BV). The valuation looks attractive if one considers the value of the bank's subsidiaries which works out to Rs400 per share of the bank. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a one year price target of Rs1,240.

Maruti Udyog
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,050
Current market price: Rs939

Loss of new plant impacts reported profits

Result highlights

  • The Q3FY2007 results of Maruti Udyog Ltd (MUL) re in line with our expectations.
  • The company's net sales for the quarter grew by 18.5% to Rs3,679.5 crore from Rs3,112.0 crore in Q3FY2006. The growth was led by a volume growth of 18.7% during the quarter and was in line with our expectations.
  • The expenditure for the quarter was higher due to higher employee costs, an increase in royalty and a loss with respect to Maruti Suzuki Automobiles India Ltd (MSAIL). Considering all these the operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 52 basis points to 14.36%. The margins were affected due to higher royalty expenses. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 14% to Rs528.48 crore.
  • The interest and depreciation costs for the quarter were higher due to the commencement of the Manesar plant. The adjusted net profit grew by 14% to Rs384.81 crore. The reported profit after tax (PAT) rose by 12% to Rs376.4 crore.
  • MUL is expected launch the diesel Swift in January 2007. This is expected to be a big boost for MUL as it would be its first serious attempt to cater to the fast-growing diesel segment. The diesel segment constitutes about 25% of the total car market in India.
  • We maintain our positive outlook on MUL, considering its leadership position in the Indian car market, planned product launches including the foray into the diesel segment and a strong outsourcing potential. Despite its rising raw material cost, MUL has been able to maintain its margins at commendable levels due to increasing efficiencies and a better product mix.
  • At the current market price of Rs939, the stock quotes at 14.4x its FY2008E earnings and 9.9x its enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs1,050.

Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs390
Current market price: Rs217

Strong growth potential despite poor performance

Result highlights

  • The net sales of Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (Orchid) rose by 0.5% year on year (yoy) to Rs238.7 crore in the third quarter of FY007. The sales growth was slightly below our expectations, partly due to an absence of any significant new product launches in the USA and partly due to the high base of Q3FY2006.
  • The company maintained its performance in its major market, the USA. Its key products�Ceftriaoxne and Cefproxil�continued to maintain a healthy market share in excess of 20-25%.
  • The company's operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 350 basis points to 32.6% as against our expectation of 31.5%. The improvement in the margin was primarily on account of a 27% drop in the raw material cost, as the company continued to derive an increasing proportion of its revenues from the sale of formulations in the high-margin regulated markets. Formulations constituted roughly 45% of its sales, almost 90% of which came from the USA.
  • Consequently, the operating profit grew by 12.4% to Rs77.8 crore in the quarter.
  • Despite a substantial improvement in the margins, the high interest cost (up by 19.4% yoy) and the higher tax provisioning as compared to Q3FY2006 dragged down the net profit, which declined by 2.2% to Rs28.3 crore in the quarter. The profit growth was in line with our estimate.
  • Orchid has just received approval from the UK MHRA for its betalactum API facility at Aurangabad. This development indicates that Orchid is on track to make its big entry into Europe in FY2008, which will add to its growth from FY2008 onwards.
  • At the current market price of Rs217, the stock is quoting at 8.5x our estimated FY2008 earnings. The valuation is very attractive given the strong growth potential for FY2008 and FY2009 in view of some forthcoming big launches in the USA and a big entry into Europe. Hence, we maintain our Buy call on the company with a price target of Rs390.

Nucleus Software Exports
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs898
Current market price: Rs811

Price target revised to Rs898

Result highlights

  • Nucleus Software Exports has announced lower-than-expected sequential growth in its revenues at 2% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 50.3% year on year (yoy) to Rs56.2 crore (against the expectations of Rs58.6 crore). The product revenues have grown at a robust rate of 12.8% sequential. However the revenues from the project and services business declined 9.3% sequentially and resulted in a lower-than-expected overall growth in the revenues during the third quarter.
  • The operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 110 basis points sequentially to 27.9% during the quarter, largely due to the steep increase in the selling, general and administration expenses (SG&A) as a percentage of sales (up from 12.6% of the sales in Q2 to 15.7% in Q3). The huge jump in the SG&A expenses was driven by the additional cost incurred (on travel and other related expenses) in pursuing some of the large deals in the pipeline (including the recently bagged order from ACOM).
  • Consequently, the earnings were largely flat at Rs13.9 crore on a sequential basis. However, the earnings grew at a robust rate of 58.1% on an annual basis.
  • Notwithstanding the muted performance (sequentially) during the quarter, the company has shown an exponential growth in its order backlog that is likely to boost the overall revenue growth in the coming quarters. The pending order book jumped to Rs335 crore, up from Rs135 crore at the end of the previous quarter. The order backlog includes the multi-million multi-year order from ACOM, a leading consumer finance company in Japan.
  • To factor in the impact of the huge fresh order intake, we are revising upwards the revenues and earnings estimates by 7% and 9% respectively, for FY2008. At the current market price the stock trades at 22.8x FY2007 and 16.5x FY2008 earning estimates. We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a one-year revised target price of Rs898 (15x its rolling four-quarter earnings).

India Cements
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs315
Current market price: Rs242

Net profit up 1,000%

Result highlights

  • India Cements achieved a net profit of Rs79.77 crore for Q3FY2007, clocking a year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 1000% , though it was below our expectations on account of higher-than-expected increase in the costs.
  • The top line grew by a robust 36% year on year (yoy) to Rs472 crore on the back of a 4% y-o-y growth in the volumes to 1.75 million metric tonne (MMT) and a 32% growth in the realisations to Rs2,700 per tonne.
  • The company's operating expenditure increased by 13% yoy to Rs339 crore on the back of a 20% increase in the raw material costs and an 18% rise in the distribution costs. Sequentially, the freight cost and the power & fuel cost increased by Rs30 per tonne and Rs15 per tonne respectively.
  • The company's high leverage to the cement prices resulted in an operating profit growth of 185% yoy to Rs133 crore whereas the operating margin expanded by a mammoth 1,40 basis points to 28%.
  • The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne tripled to Rs761 though it was down 12% quarter on quarter (qoq) on account of lower volumes due to the monsoons in the southern region namely Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
  • The interest expenditure and the depreciation cost remained flat qoq at Rs34.7 crore and Rs19.82 crore respectively. These factors coupled with a negligible tax provision helped the company's net profit to register a 1,000% year-on-year jump to Rs79.77 crore.
  • The company's plan to augment its capacity by 2MMT at its existing facilities (namely Sankaridurg and Vishnupuram) is well on schedule. One million tonne of the capacity is expected to come in June 2007 whereas the balance one million will kick in by December 2007.
  • We expect the company's volumes to bounce back in the fourth quarter and also expect the prices to firm up further by Rs5-10 per bag.
  • At the current price of Rs242, the stock trades at 12.2x its FY2007E and 8.5x its FY2008E earnings. On an enterprise value (EV)/tonne basis, the company is trading at USD115 per tonne, which is a steep discount to its peer Madras Cement, which is trading at USD155 per tonne. We continue to maintain our positive outlook on the company with a price target of Rs315.

Indo Tech Transformers
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs335
Current market price: Rs288

Price target revised to Rs335

Result highlights

  • The Q3FY2007 results of Indo Tech Transformers Ltd (ITTL) are above our expectations.
  • The company has reported strong quarterly results. The revenues for the quarter grew by 130% to Rs45.04 crore as against our expectations of Rs40 crore while the net profit grew by 166% to Rs7.3 crore against our expectations of Rs5.3 crore. The volume growth was 89% as the company sold 672 mega Volt Ampere (MVA) during the quarter as against 355MVA in Q3FY2006.
  • The above performance was due to the fact that the company executed some high-margin orders during the quarter under review and hence the operating profit for the quarter grew by 153% to Rs11.86 crore. The operating profit margin (OPM) for the quarter improved by 240 basis points to 26.3% as against 23.9% in Q3FY2006. Going forward the company expects to maintain its OPM in the range of  19-20%.
  • The interest expense for the quarter stood at Rs0.23 crore while the depreciation cost for the quarter was Rs0.28 crore.
  • The order backlog at the end of Q3FY2007 stood at Rs153 crore as against Rs79 crore at the end of the previous quarter, showing a growth of 94%.
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Sharekhan Eagle Eye (equities) & Derivatives Info Kit for January 23, 2007

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Geojit Recommendations

Scrip Name Price Recommendation

Bharat Forge 368.55 Buy

Garware Wall Ropes 96.35 Buy

Hindustan Construction 153.35 Buy

Indian Hotel 157.70 Buy

Kalyani Steel 444.00 Buy

Thanks Kiran

Busting the Small Investor Myth - By Dhirendra Kumar

There seems to be a school of thought around that the stock markets must run in such a way that the so-called retail investor must always make money and if he doesn't, then there's something wrong. Either the laws are inadequate or the markets are crooked, or preferably, both. This belief surfaces most strongly whenever an IPO opens at a discount, as happened with Cairn Energy. The belief that the retail investor (formerly called the small investor) has a right to make profits no matter what he does is shared by some in the investment community, the media and in the government. There are frequent lamentations about the fact that the retail investor is not participating in the markets and various remedies are suggested (and some implemented) to correct this supposed anomaly. In fact, 2005's IPO scam was essentially about large investors going to absurd lengths to disguise themselves as small investors in response to the IPO lottery being fixed to favour the latter.

Am I saying that no individual should invest directly in stocks at all? After all, expert investors too start out as individuals investing for themselves. The way it happens is that a large number of investors try their hand at the markets, usually when the markets are booming. As long as the markets stay strong they all make money, more or less. This makes them confident so that when the bulls stop running, most of them lose heavily. Some, however, turn out to have the right mental make-up for this activity and go on to become experts. There is nothing wrong with this. Markets are inherently Darwinian and it is in their nature that those who make the wrong choices will lose. For a market to function correctly, those who make the right choices must make money those who make the wrong choices must bear losses. If we see this as a problem and try and fix things, we will actually end up breaking them.

I think this idea of the small investor participating directly in the stock markets needs to be fundamentally re-examined. Trading profitably in stocks on a sustained basis is a specialized skill that is not easy to acquire or practice. This has always been true in all stock markets regardless of whether those markets are well-regulated or not or whether they are crookedly organised or honest. Those who promote the idea that everyone can buy and sell shares and make money with any certainty basically end up leading a lot of lambs to eventual slaughter. For the small investor, the only safe way of participating in the markets is indirectly, through a mutual fund or some similar structure where their money is being managed by someone else who has a good track record that is transparently known.

Stock investing is an increasingly complex activity. At a time when Indian business are evolving so rapidly, the kind of commitment of time and effort needed to research things adequately can probably not be made on an part-time basis. I'm not saying that no one can do this but being an informed investor takes either a professional-scale commitment or an accidental instinct. There's no guarantee that any given investor can do this. It's time to lay the myth of the small investor to rest.