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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Educomp Solutions

Educomp Solutions

Hotel Sector

Hotel Sector

Steel Sector Update

Steel Sector Update

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Dec 23 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
23/12/2008 526033 CRYSTAL SOFT KAUSHAL NIRANJAN SHAH S 60583 8.99
23/12/2008 513059 G.S. AUTO SPJSTOCK B 17000 21.94
23/12/2008 513059 G.S. AUTO SPJSTOCK S 17000 22.14
23/12/2008 506170 HIRAN ORGOCH SURESH VALANI S 57617 30.35
23/12/2008 531602 KOFF BR PICT HAREN TEXTILES PVT LTD S 38435 2.90
23/12/2008 531096 MOUNT EVE MI MANMOHAN DAMANI S 213643 73.47

NSE Bulk Deal Watch - Dec 23 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
23-DEC-2008,EDUCOMP,Educomp Solutions Limited,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD,BUY,105070,2669.17,-
23-DEC-2008,HDIL,Housing Development and I,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,BUY,2813705,151.32,-
23-DEC-2008,EDUCOMP,Educomp Solutions Limited,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD,SELL,105070,2670.50,-
23-DEC-2008,HDIL,Housing Development and I,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,SELL,2808968,151.46,-
23-DEC-2008,LLOYDELENG,Lloyd Electric & Engg Ltd,V.K. KUMRA,SELL,170000,25.19,-

Cairn India, Tata Motors, HCL Technologies

Cairn India, Tata Motors, HCL Technologies

Gujarat Ambuja Exports

Gujarat Ambuja Exports

Reliance Petroleum

Reliance Petroleum

Gateway Distripaks

Gateway Distripaks

Tata Motors

Tata Motors

FMCG Sector

FMCG Sector

Post Session Commentary - Dec 23 2008

The Indian market ended lower as investors booked profits over the counters due to lack of positive cues on subdued global markets. Bears tightened their grip as Asian stock markets retreated for a third straight session. European markets opened positive but overlooked by the domestic traders. December 2008 derivatives contracts due to be expire on Wednesday, 24 December 2008, also contributed to the uneasiness.

The Indian market extended its yesterday’s losses and opened lower tracking negative cues from the markets all over the world. Further benchmark indices continued to trade in negative as strong selling pressure prolonged across the board on the back of deepening worries about the global economic outlook. Stocks slipped sharply lower during final trading and posted its biggest drop in more than two weeks to conclude the day in red led by banks and engineering companies on concern that corporate earnings may be hurt by slowing economic growth. BSE Sensex ended below 9,700 mark and NSE Nifty below 3,000 level. From the sectoral front, Investors off-loaded positions across the sectors and most of the selling was observed in Consumer Durables, Reality, Bank, Capital Goods, Metal, Auto and IT stocks. Midcap and Smallcap stocks also remained out of favor.

Among the Sensex pack 29 stocks ended in red territory and 1 in green. The market breadth was negative as 1752 stocks closed in red while 725 stocks closed in green and 82 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 241.60 points at 9,686.75 and NSE Nifty ended down by 70.65 points at 2,968.65. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with losses of 83.98 points and 95.77 points at 3,175.81 and 3,639.18 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,838.38 and intraday low of 9,643.56.

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Satyam Computer (13.55%), JP Associates (10.18%), Tata Motos (7.04%), Sterlite In (6.00%), Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (5.33%), L&T Ltd (4.89%), DLF Ltd (4.40%), ICICI Bank (4.32%), Hindalco (4.10%) and HDFC Bank (3.92%).

Only gainer from the BSE Sensex pack is Reliance Com Ltd (1.24%).

The BSE Consumer Durable index tumbled (5.81%) or 119.58 points to close at 1,137.87 as Titan Ind (7.68%), Videocon Ind (5.53%), Rajesh Export (4.41%), Blue Star L (3.29%) and Gitabjale GE (2.32%) ended in negative territory.

The BSE Reality index ended lower by (4.84%) or 122.26 points at 2,406.38. Main losers are Unitech Ltd (7.54%), Ansal Infra (7.16%), Housing Dev (6.82%), Orbit Co (5.68%), Parsvnath (4.80%) and DLF Ltd (4.40%).

The BSE Bank index ended down by (3.76%) or 206.69 points at 5,285.09. Major losers are Yes Bank (8.11%), Axis Bank (7.07%), Indian Overseas Bank (6.70%), Kotak Bank (6.70%) and Bank of Baroda (5.78%).

The BSE Capital Goods index ended lower by (3.61%) or 257 points at 6,868.03. Major losers are Usha Martin (7.86%), Alstom Proje (6.57%), Suzlon Energy (5.79%), Jyoti Struct (4.96%), L&T Ltd (4.89%) and Punj Lloyd (4.54%).

The BSE Metal index lost (3.07%) or 164.06 points to close at 5,188.42 as Jai Corp Ltd (8.62%), Sterlite In (6.00%), Steel Authority (5.76%), Hindalco (4.10%), Guajrat NRE C (4.29%) and Hindalco (4.10%) ended in red.

Turnover surges ahead of expiry

Nifty December 2008 futures at slight premium

Nifty December 2008 futures were at 2970.50, at a premium of 1.85 points as compared to the spot closing of 2968.65. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment surged to Rs 51,132.48 crore from Rs 47,321.10 crore on Monday, 22 December 2008.

The December 2008 derivatives contracts will expire on Wednesday, 24 December 2008, as the markets are closed on Thursday, 25 December 2008, for Christmas.

NTPC December 2008 futures were near spot price at 180 compared to the spot closing of 179.70.

State Bank of India December 2008 futures were near spot price at 1264.50 compared to the spot closing of 1264.20.

DLF December 2008 futures were near spot price at 301.75 compared to the spot closing of 301.80.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 70.65 points or 2.32% at 2968.65.

Weak Asian stocks weigh on the domestic bourses

Bears were in command as market declined for the second straight day on setback in Asian stocks and caution ahead of the expiry of the near month derivatives contracts. Banking, realty and capital goods led the decline. The BSE Sensex provisionally lost 251.08 points, or 2.53%. India's fourth largest software firm by revenue, Satyam Computer Services, plunged 14.25% on rumours its founder and chairman Ramalinga Raju had resigned from the board.

All the sectoral indices on the BSE were in the red. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak.

Volatility was high. An intraday recovery was witnessed on a number of occasions on expectations of a further rate cut by the central bank and on a likely second government stimulus package for the economy. In its mid-year review of the economy, the finance ministry today, 23 December 2008, said there is a considerable scope for monetary easing over the next six to 12 months and an aggressive monetary policy may be necessary if the global economic turmoil continues to adversely affect manufacturing.

Lower interest rates and the government's fiscal stimulus package for the economy may revive the economy. The Indian economy has slowed down after a strong growth in the past three years. As per the market buzz, the government is likely to come out with a second stimulus for the economy. The first stimulus package announced early this month mainly involved additional government spending and an across-the-board cut in excise duties.

The near month December 2008 derivatives contracts will expire on Wednesday, 24 December 2008, as the markets are closed on Thursday, 25 December 2008, for Christmas.

Asia stock markets retreated for a third straight day on Tuesday, 23 December 2008 on deepening worries about the global economic outlook. The Shanghai Composite fell 4.55% after China's central bank trimmed interest rates by 27 basis points after trading hours on Monday, 22 December 2008, disappointing some investors in a move that was smaller than expected given the aggressive actions by other central banks. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were down by between 1.21% to 2.75%. The Japanese financial markets were closed for a national holiday.

European stocks were mostly higher in early trade on Tuesday, as investors bought banks, which have endured a battering this year, and energy shares. The key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were up by between 0.27% to 0.77%.

Trading in US index futures indicated the Dow could rise 21 points at the opening bell. US stocks slid on Monday, 22 December 2008, on more evidence the year-long recession will keep eating into corporate profits, while retailers tumbled on worry the holiday shopping season could be the worst in nearly 40 years. The Dow fell 59.34 points, or 0.69%, to 8,519.77. The S&P 500 index slipped 16.25 points, or 1.83%, to 871.63, and the Nasdaq composite index declined 31.97 points, or 2.04%, to 1,532.35.

Economic and corporate data around the world remains weak. New Zealand's economy contracted by the biggest amount in eight years in the third quarter, reinforcing the case for more central bank rate cuts, data on Tuesday showed. On Monday, figures showed Japanese exports plunging at the fastest annual pace on record in November 2008, while Toyota Motor Corp said it would post its first-ever annual operating loss.

Top US staffing company Manpower on Monday scrapped its profit outlook and No. 1 drug store chain Walgreen Co posted a weaker-than-expected profit and slowed its expansion plans.

As per the provisional figures, the BSE 30-share Sensex was down 251.08 points, or 2.53%, to 9,677.27. At the day's low of 9,643.56, the Sensex fell 284.79 points in mid-afternoon trade. The Sensex fell 89.97 points at the day's high of 9,838.38 hit in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was down 72.15 points, or 2.37%, to 2,967.15 as per the provisional figures.

The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 3,364 crore, lower than Rs 3,861.10 on 22 December 2008.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak. On BSE, 735 shares rose as compared with 1,770 that declined. 66 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 2.51% while the BSE Small-Cap index dipped 2.51%. Both the indices outperformed Sensex.

Ranbaxy Laboratories, Reliance Infrastructure, Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Grasim Industries fell by between 1.36% to 4.4%.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 1.92% to Rs 1,260 on recent reports it may face pressure from the US to stop selling gasoline to Iran. As per reports, eight American lawmakers have asked the Export-Import Bank of United States (Ex-Im US) to immediately suspend all financial assistance to Reliance Industries (RIL) till it agrees to stop selling gasoline to Iran.

In a letter written to Ex-Im Bank president James Lambright, the American lawmakers stated that RIL is a major supplier of gasoline to Iran which is detrimental to the national security interests of the US and the loan is in direct collision with its foreign policy on Iran.

Oil exploration firms ONGC and Cairn India fell between 1% to 2.68% as crude dropped below $40 a barrel on signs the global economic downturn is further drying up fuel demand. Crude oil for February 2009 delivery fell as much as 61 cents, or 1.5%, to $39.30 a barrel.

Banking stocks fell as the recent rate cuts raised concerns about a fall in net interest margin (NIM). India's largest commercial bank State Bank of India (SBI) fell 0.87%. On Saturday, 20 December 2008, SBI slashed its lending rate by 75 basis points, to be effective from 1 January 2009. The bank also cut its deposit rates by 25 to 100 basis points across maturities. SBI's rate cut raised expectations other banks would follow suit.

India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank slipped 4.39% as its American depository receipt (ADR) fell 4.02% on Monday, 22 December 2008.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank slashed 4.27% as its American depository receipts (ADR) dipped 3.8% on Monday, 22 December 2008. Its advance tax payment declined 6% to Rs 470 crore in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007. ICICI Bank said on Friday, 19 December 2008, joint managing director Chanda Kochhar would succeed Chief Executive K.V. Kamath who retires in April 2009. Kamath, chief executive since 1996, will become non-executive chairman from May 2009 replacing N. Vaghul who retires.

India's largest home loan lender by operating income Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) fell 1.32% after it cut its retail lending rates by 50 basis points, effective 22 December 2008. HDFC announced the rate cut after trading hours on Friday, 19 December 2008.

PSU banks Indian Overseas Bank, Union Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda fell by between 2.76% to 6%.

Capital goods stocks slipped on worries a slowing economy will crimp orders. Larsen & Toubro , Bharat Heavy Electricals and ABB fell by between 1.74% to 5.73%.

Real estate shares dipped on reports property rates are expected to fall by 20-25% as demand has dropped off sharply over the past 9-10 months due to high interest rates. Indiabulls Real Estate, DLF and Unitech fell by between 4.35% to 7.82%. Fall in property prices is expected to hit the margins of developers already hit by the demand slowdown. Additionally, developers are facing a sever cash crunch that is hindering the execution of ongoing projects and grounding new launches.

Outsourcing firms declined as fears a weak global economy would cut the amount firms spent on technology offset a weaker rupee.

Satyam Computer fell 14.25% on rumours its founder and chairman Ramalinga Raju had resigned from the board. As per unconfirmed reports, Raju has put in his papers and he awaiting the company board's decision on the issue. The company had said on Thursday, 18 December 2008 its board will meet on 29 December 2008 to consider buyback of shares, a move aimed at boosting investor confidence. The stock had slumped 30.22% to Rs 158.05 on Wednesday 17 December 2008 after it called off a deal to buy Maytas Properties and Maytas Infra, the two firms promoted by the family of promoter and chairman Ramalinga Raju, bowing to investor pressure.

India's second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys fell 0.47% even as its ADR rose 2.03% on Monday. Infosys sees the Indian IT industry going through a slow phase of growth for some time, its chief executive said last week. India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services slipped 2.13%. India's fourth largest IT exporter by sales Wipro fell 0.81% as its ADR slipped 3.58% on Monday.

The Indian rupee eased to its lowest in nearly two weeks on Tuesday, as a wobbly stock market raised concerns about foreign fund withdrawals. The partially convertible rupee was at 48.48/49 per dollar, off a trough of 48.535, its lowest since 12 December 2008 and about 1 % lower than Monday's close of 48.01/03.A weaker rupee augurs well for IT firms which derive a lion's shares of revenue from exports.

India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors fell 7.5% on reports the company may have to pump in at least $1 billion to revive premium British brands Jaguar and Land Rover that it bought earlier this year.

Hatsun Agro Product rose 1.78% on reports it would double its previously planned ice cream production capacity at its new facility coming up in Salem, Tamil Nadu.

Pyramid Saimira Theatre was locked at lower circuit limit of 10% at Rs 61.15 on reports the market regulator did not issue any advisory to the company's chairman regarding an open offer.

SEBI letter forged - PSTL

Chennai-based entertainment and theater company Pyramid Saimira Theatre today said the letter which it had received from the regulator Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi), with regard to the company's open offer, has been forged.

The company had requested the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange not to issue the pay out and to conduct a thorough enquiry into the company's share transaction on Monday. The company is also planning to launch a formal complaint with Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in this regard.

Speaking to reporters in Chennai today P S Saminathan, chairman, Pyramid Saimira Theatres said that the regulator had clarified to the company that it did not issue any letter and would issue a detailed press release later today.

Saminathan also denied all the points which has been stated in the so called letter sent by Sebi. "If the letter itself fraud, there is no point commenting on it," said Saminathan.

The letter dated December 19, 2008, which is in the circulation printed at the regulator's letterhead carrying Corporate Finance Department's Assistant General Manager signature. The letter subjected, "Violations of Sebi (SAST) Regulations by P S Saminathan & Pyramid Saimira Theatre", stated that Sebi had directed Pyramid Saimira to make an open offer to buy 20 per cent in the company at Rs 250 a share.

Meanwhile, the concerned courier company which delivered the letter to Samintahan, in written has confirmed that they received instruction from Sebi to deliver the letter on December 22. Saminathan noted, the regulator normally faxes such letters and does not courier them. He feels this is a deliberate attempt to defame the company.

He added, his current holding is 24 per cent in the company and planning to consolidated it by buying another 22 per cent from Nirmal Kotecha on Monday, which would haven taken to the total share holding of Saminathan to 46 per cent.

But on Monday company's stock surged as much as 10 per cent on the domestic bourses on reports that the promoters would make an open offer to the shareholders for acquiring a further 20 per cent stake. Shares of Pyramid Saimira surged 9.95 per cent in the opening trade to hit its upper circuit of Rs 82.90 on the BSE, which had put Saminathan's plan on hold.

Saminathan said there has been massive 75 lakh share trade and 25 lakh shares delivery marking which is completely abnormal.

The current share holding pattern of the company Saminathan – 24 per cent, Nirmal Kotecha – 22 per cent, Narayanan, 4 per cent, Other promoters – 4 per cent and Public – 46 per cent.

via Business Standard

Daily Call - Dec 23 2008

Markets are likely to lack luster as they start the day's proceedings on a rather tepid note. The US markets continued with their losing ways for the 4th session on the trot. Japan is observing Emperor's birthday. Hong Kong is mildly weak. Our markets have largely ploughed their own furrow for the past two weeks and therefore Asian markets are unlikely to guide Dalal Street behaviour.

The profit booking mode, which began yesterday is likely to manifest itself today as well but it won't halt the uptrend unless you see a close below 9600 mark. But Reliance is a worry, where shorts appeared again in the derivative segment. As important data in the US is on tap in the coming days, the US markets could play the pied piper once again. One solace is that punters may like to extend their gains and may put up a fight in this settlement that ends tomorrow

Pre Session Commentary - Dec 23 2008

Today the markets are expected to open up in red due to negative trading of Asian markets. And the investors will closely keep a close eye on the rollover in the derivatives market. However, for the day the market will trade in negative zone and track the behavior in the Asian and European market.

On Monday, the markets opened on a flat note and continued to trade volatile with a negative bias and ended the day in deep red. The hopes for a possible stimulus package and rate cut are getting extended day by day, which resorted in profit booking in index heavyweight. As there was not much to talk about domestic cues, the benchmark indices reacted to the behavior of the Asian Markets. In line with the Asian Markets the downtrend was followed by the European markets, which ended the session in red. The Sensex breached the sensitive mark of 10,000 and closed in a four-digit mark. Sensex and Nifty lost 1.69% and 1.24%. Oil & Gas, Bankex, Metal, Capital Goods and Auto conceded lose of 3.02%, 2.48%, 1.52%, 0.99% and 1.36% respectively. The market is likely to turn volatility with negative bias. Also, as Thursday being holiday on the occasion of Christmas most data like Derivatives expiry and Inflation are expected to come out a day early

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 171.56 points at 9,928.35 and NSE Nifty ended low by 39 points at 3,077.50. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with loss of 4.20 points and 9.07 points at 3,259.79 and 3,734.95 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,173.34 and intraday low of 9,894.01.

On Monday, the US markets closed in weak note. The investors are worried over the impact of recession on the corporate profits on more evidence the year-long recession will keep eating into corporate profits, while retailers tumbled on worry the holiday shopping season could be the worst in nearly 40 years. Crude oil for February delivery fell 1.5 percent to $39.31 barrel in New York after plunging 5.8 percent yesterday

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed low with 59.42 points at 8,519.69, whereas NASDAQ index dropped by 31.97 points at 1532.35 and the S&P 500 (SPX) also closed lower by 16.25 points to close at 871.63 points.

Indian ADRs ended mixed. In technology sector, Infosys gained by 2.03% and Satyam that gained by 5.49% whereas Wipro lost by 3.58% and Patni Computers closing low by 2.11%. In banking sector ICICI Bank plunged by 3.80%, HDFC Bank fell by 4.02%. In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication plunged by 3.40%, while MTNL inclined by 8.91%.

Today the major stock markets in Asia opened weak. The Shanghai Composite is trading low by 67.77 points at 1,919.98 Hang Seng is low by 374.60 points at 14,247.79. Further Japan''s Nikkei is closed on the occasion of Emperor’s Birthday. Tiwan weighted low by 163.69 points at 4,371.85 and Singapore’s Strait Times is down by 8.55 points at 1,737.08. The Asian Markets are trading low as there are no positive cues flowing in the market and even if there are any then they are not enough to curtail the downtrend. Today China came out with a rate cut, but the reaction in the Chinese market is negative and the same could shadow on the rest of the market.

The FIIs on Monday stood as net buyers in equity and debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 2,243.30 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 174.30 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 1,780.40 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 61.50 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs 462.90 Crore and Rs 112.70 Crore respectively.

On Monday Indian Rupee closed at 48.01/03 a dollar, about 1.6% weaker than Friday''s close of 47.26/27. Negative stocks and positive offshore dollar/rupee and some corporate (dollar) buying between 47.30-47.50 have pulled the rupee lower.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 34.63 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 3,861.10 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 72.15 Crore and total turnover was Rs 10,149.04 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with 102398902 shares, Suzlon Energy with total volume traded 5253028867 shares, Reliance Petro with 21061405 shares, DLF with 18832155 shares, followed by SAIL with 10024713 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 1038615 with a total turnover of Rs 15088.39 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 1436665 with a total turnover of Rs 15905.39 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1013251 with a total turnover of Rs 15661.70 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 61334 and notional turnover was Rs 665.61 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,900 and resistance at 3,170 and BSE Sensex has support at 9,725 and resistance at 10,200.

SGX Nifty Live Update - 2 - Dec 23 2008

SGX Nifty December - 3,030.0 -19.0

SGX Nifty January - 3,040.0 -26.0

Market seen lower on negative global cues

Key benchmark indices are likely to edge lower in volatile trade mirroring negative global cues.

Asia stock markets retreated for a third straight day today, 23 December 2008. China's Shanghai Composite plunged 1.24% or 24.71 points at 1,963.05, Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 1.26% or 184.45 points at 14,437.94, Singapore's Straits Times declined 0.76% or 13.27 points at 1,732.36, South Korea's Seoul Composite slipped 2.23% or 26.35 points at 1,153.26 and Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted fell 2.28% or 103.31 points at 4,432.23.

US stocks closed lower on Monday, 22 December 2008 amidst gloomy outlooks from companies like Toyota Motors. Caterpillar reportedly predicts a slump in global economy and lower energy demand. The Dow fell 59.34 points, or 0.69%, to 8,519.77. The S&P 500 index slipped 16.25 points, or 1.83%, to 871.63, and the Nasdaq composite index declined 31.97 points, or 2.04%, to 1,532.35.

Back home, volatility may rise ahead of the December series F&O contracts expiry on Wednesday, 24 December 2008. As per reports, rollover of Nifty and marketwide positions from December 2008 series to January 2009 series stood at 40% as of Monday, 22 December 2008.

There is a possibility of dip in trading volumes due to a likely decline in foreign institutional participation on account of the Christmas and New Year celebrations. In that case, domestic institutions are expected to play a key role in determining the market direction. Market remains closed on Thursday, 25 December 2008 on account of Christmas.

Investors resorted to profit booking on weakness in global stocks pulling the barometer indices lower on Monday, 22 December 2008. The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 171.56 points, or 1.7%, to 9,928.35 and the S&P CNX Nifty was down 38.20 points, or 1.24%, to 3,039.30, on that day.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers worth Rs 191.49 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 207.55 crore on Monday, 20 December 2008, according to provisional data on NSE.

Daily Market Outlook - Dec 23 2008

Daily Market Outlook - Dec 23 2008

Daily Technicals - Dec 23 2008

Daily Technicals - Dec 23 2008

Morning Mantra - Dec 23 2008

Morning Mantra - Dec 23 2008

Technical Trends - Dec 23 2008

Technical Trends - Dec 23 2008

Morning Note - Dec 23 2008

Morning Note - Dec 23 2008

Market Mantra, Future Scope

Market Mantra, Future Scope

Trading Calls - Dec 23 2008

Nifty (3039) Sup 2950 Res 3085

Sell Crompton (134) SL 137
Target 128

Sell HDFC (1496) SL 1515
Target 1455, 1465

Sell ACC (488) SL 493
Target 478, 476

Sell Cairn (160) SL 163
Target 154, 153

Buy Sterlite (280) SL 276
Target 286, 290

Daily News Roundup - Dec 23 2008

Bhel bags Rs11.75bn contract for setting up a 500MW thermal power plant at Bina in Madhya Pradesh. (ET)
RIL along with BP signed a production-sharing contract for the block KG-DWN-2005/2 with the Indian government. (BS)
Unitech plans to raise Rs50bn through debt and equity issues. (BS)
Cairn India has struck more oil and gas in its Rajasthan block which could take the estimated production from the area beyond the targeted 175,000 barrels a day by 2010. (BL)
Reliance Communications has set aside US$1bn for its 3G telecom services rollout. (ET)
GAIL (India) Ltd to supply additional 20mn standard cubic metres of gas to RIL for the commissioning of the latter’s east-west pipeline network at the prevailing price. (BL)
Tatas have secured funds for Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) as the bankers were convinced that the UK government would prevent a collapse of the luxury car maker. (BS)
The Tata Group may have to invest at least US$1bn to revive Jaguar and Land Rover. (ET)
Jet Airways plans to buy a stake in the maintenance, repair and overhaul facility at the new Hyderabad international airport. (ET)
Tata Sons acquires additional 2.4% stake in Tata Communications. (ET)
Rahul Bajaj to sell a 29.6% stake in Bajaj Hindusthan to Shishir Bajaj giving him full control over the sugar company. (ET)
ONGC likely to be exempted from subsidising domestic LPG and kerosene due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices. (FE)
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals to beat bigger rivals like Ranbaxy and Dr Reddy’s in selling an original drug by 2010. (BS)
ITC is planning to develop properties across the country. (ET)
Emami decides to stay rooted in realty space, plans to transfer holding in real estate arm to group companies. (ET)
Jaiprakash Associates to amalgamate its subsidiary companies Jaypee Cement Ltd, Gujarat Anjan Cement Ltd, Jaypee Hotels Ltd and Jaiprakash Enterprises Ltd with itself, from April 1 ’08. (BS)
BoI and BoB to cut its lending rates by 75bps and deposit rates across all maturities with effect from January 1 ’08. (BL)
Punjab National Bank plans to raise Rs5bn from tier II bonds. (FE)
IFC proposes to give a corporate loan of up to US$45mn to Jain Irrigation. (FE)
Sun Pharmaceuticals has extended the deadline of its open offer to Taro Pharmaceutical Industries to January 9, 2009. (ET)
Shoppers Stop has postponed its plans to acquire an additional 32% stake in HyperCITY Retail (India) to June 2010. (ET)
Carlyle Group and TPG Capital plan to buy a stake in Suzlon Energy. (FE)
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals’ new drug Crofelemer has entered phase 3 clinical trials. (ET)
Aurobindo Pharma gets USFDA approval for anti-HIV infection tablets. (ET)
JSW Steel has advanced the commissioning of its additional 3mn tons capacity line at Vijayanagar plant in Karnataka by a month to February 2009. (FE)
BGR Energy has forged a technical collaboration and a licence agreement with Italy-based Termomeccania Ecologia (TME) for condensate polishing plants in India. (BL)
Air India has agreed to pay 3% commission to agents on the gross fare, which includes basic fare and fuel surcharge. (ET)
Crompton Greaves to scale down its capex for the fiscal to Rs1.5bn from the earlier target of Rs2.2bn. (BL)
Kingfisher Airlines not to cut fares for now. (BS)
Kingfisher Airlines has approached a consortium of banks for funds to bail out the airline even as it has drawn about 80% of the Rs10bn loan it received from ICICI Bank early this year. (BL)
Tata Metaliks to consider borrowing through debentures. (FE)
Singapore based Nalanda Capital acquires 1.8% stake in Sun Network for over Rs1bn. (ET)
Pyramid Saimira Theatre to go ahead with the inter-se transfer of shares within the promoter group. (ET)
Gitanjali Gems will buy back up to 12mn shares for Rs1.44bn. (FE)
Hinduja Foundries to curtail the number of working days at its three units in Ennore, Sriperumbudur and Hyderabad. (BS)
Oil India Ltd has deferred its IPO for the second time due to the volatile market conditions. (BS)
Parsvnath pulls out of Chandigarh film city project. (BL)
Tata Capital is planning to raise ~Rs15bn through a public issue of bonds. (ET)
The workers of Coal India Ltd to go for a three-day nationwide strike beginning from January 5 ‘08. (BL)
IDBI Bank and Export Import Bank of India (Exim) plan to raise up to Rs45bn through bond issues to finance their business growth. (BS)
Renault to produce the Logan hatchback at Nashik, which is already home to the sedan version. (BL)

India has lifted a ban on cement exports as prices ease, local demand dips. (ET)
RBI has started a review of the NPA or bad loan classification norms to ease the flow of credit to corporate groups. (BS)
The Government is considering a proposal that would allow single-brand foreign retailers to dilute stakes in their Indian ventures in favour of foreign PE firms. (ET)
Government agencies that also act as regulators may soon stop partnering with private companies for new ports, power and railways projects. (ET)
Regulators may be barred from core public-private partnership projects. (ET)
DoT has decided to grant advance licences to prospective Mobile Virtual Network Operators. (FE)
The Petroleum ministry is planning to auction over 100 prospective areas for oil and gas exploration by March 2009 under the eighth round of New Exploration Licensing Policy. (ET)
India plans the next round of bidding for oil blocks under the New Exploration and Licensing Policy (Nelp) in February next year. (BS)
The Government plans to remove the fuel surcharge on tickets, but airlines resist. (ET)
Around 87 tea estates in Darjeeling are poised to get the Agri-Export Zone status w.e.f. January 1, 2009. (ET)
The Government has decided to put on hold the proposal to grant a declared goods status to aviation turbine fuel. (ET)
The Government has introduced two Bills on the insurance sector reforms in the Parliament. This would hike in FDI in an Indian insurance company to 49% from 26%, permit foreign re-insurers to set up branches here and do away with divestment restrictions on Indian promoters of insurance companies to enable entry of more players into the sector. (BL)
Companies providing value added services on mobile phones will not be brought under a licensing regime, Trai likely to issue norms to help content producers protect copyrights. (ET)
Operators are mulling increasing prices for offering round-the clock or restorable leased line services. (ET)
Sugar millers have asked the government to set up an independent regulator to look into issues of cane pricing and allocation of sugarcane to different factories. (ET)
Parliament gave its nod to the second batch of supplementary demands for grants permitting Government to raise public expenditure by an additional Rs424.8bn during FY09. (ET)
Tax collections in North grow by only 16.8% at ~Rs63.3bn till December 15. (ET)

Lull before a brief storm!

Year’s end is neither an end nor a beginning, but a going on, with all the wisdom that experience can instill in us.

Experience has taught us the hard way and markets are showing signs of fatigue. Bulls will hope this is a lull before a brief storm. Today, we expect the market to trend lower again, at least on start given continued weakness in Asian markets. Stock benchmarks also declined in the US and Europe. A bout of short-covering ahead of tomorrow's derivative settlement could prop up the indices later in the day. (Thursday is Christmas holiday).

Markets in other parts of the world may see a steep fall in trading as many players could extend their year-end vacation. As a result, there is a fair chance that volatility may increase on lower volumes.

The overall outlook remains uncertain, as nobody wants to take undue risks at this stage with only a few sessions to go in the year. Most players will take a call on the market only next year. Though the recent spurt across global equity markets has provided a much-needed boost to the bulls, one cannot rule out another steep fall. It's anybody's guess if the key indices will test October lows again or gradually advance. Much will hinge on the trend in fund flows and how fast the global economy rebounds.

As far as India is concerned, we will need proof that the string of government measures are working. There are reports of a fresh round of stimulus package being unveiled soon, including further easing in monetary policy by the RBI. But, these tend to provide only a brief relief to the market. One will also have to watch out for quarterly earnings and of course the political drama that will unfold over the next few months.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs1.9bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday while the local institutions poured in Rs2.07bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs3.9bn. On Friday, FIIs were net buyers at Rs4.63bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds pulled out Rs2.95bn on the same day.

US stocks ended lower on Monday after the Big Three automakers had their debt ratings cut despite the bailout package unveiled by White House last week. Sentiment was also hit after Japanese auto major Toyota forecast a loss for the year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 59.42 points, or 0.7%, to 8,519.69. At one point, it was down more than 200 points.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index retreated 16.25 points or 1.8% to 871.63, wiping out last week’s 0.9% gain. Energy, consumer discretionary and financials pacing the fall among the various sectors. All of the index's 10 industry groups slipped into the red.

Of the Dow's 30 components, 19 closed in the red, with the heaviest losses tallied by General Motors (GM), whose shares surrendered 21.6%. Shares of other automakers also were pounded, with Ford sliding 12.2% and the US-listed shares of Toyota declining 5.4%.

The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite Index slid 31.97 points, or 2%, to 1,532.35. The Russell 2000 Index of small companies declined 2.3 percent to 475.07. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed markets slumped 1.6 percent to 892.73.

Market breadth was negative. Declining shares outnumbered advancers by more than 2-to-1 with about 90 million shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).

A deteriorating outlook for corporate earnings and the housing sector offset expectations that government efforts to revive the economy will succeed.

Toyota forecast an operating loss for the current year, which would be a first for the Japanese automaker since World War II. Toyota blamed a slump in global demand and a sharp appreciation in the yen against other currencies.

Monsanto lost 7.5% after Goldman Sachs said the recession will hurt profit at the world’s largest producer of seeds. Walgreen, the second-biggest US drugstore chain, sank 4.2% after posting the slowest sales growth in at least 18 years.

MetLife, the insurer invested in US$36bn worth of commercial mortgages, tumbled 12% as analysts said the number of US non-residential properties at risk of default may triple.

US stocks languished for most of the morning before falling sharply in the afternoon as oil prices slid below US$40 a barrel. That sent shares of oil industry firms Chevron and Exxon Mobil lower and weighed on the Dow. But the major indexes recovered some ground near the closing bell.

The market could come under pressure in the coming weeks, as companies begin reporting fourth-quarter results, which are expected to remain soft. December and January are traditionally some of the best months for US stocks, and January sets the tone for the rest of the year.

Stocks may find some support early next year as details about President-elect Obama's stimulus plan become clear. Obama has called for an economic stimulus that would focus on rebuilding infrastructure and creating jobs.

Trading is expected to be volatile this week, with many market participants out for the Christmas holidays. Markets will close early on Wednesday and will remain closed on Thursday for the Christmas holiday.

Truck and tractor maker Caterpillar announced plans to lay off more than 800 employees at one of its engine plants and said it will take other steps to cut costs. The stock fell nearly 3%.

Moody's placed Alcoa's credit rating under review for a possible downgrade due to weakening demand and falling aluminum prices. Alcoa shares ended down 5%.

Insurance giant AIG said it will sell Hartford Steam Boiler, a subsidiary equipment insurer, to Munich Re Group for US$742mn in cash and US$76mn in stock. Shares of AIG were up about 3%.

Internet-tracking firm comScore said that spending by online shoppers fell 1% last week, with last-minute deals for free shipping before the holidays seemingly not enough to spur Web sales. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the US' overall economic activity.

Elsewhere in the world, the People's Bank of China lowered its benchmark one-year lending rates, besides cutting deposit rates and the banks' reserve requirement. Last month, China cut its key rate by more than a percent as part of Beijing's multibillion-dollar plan to keep its economy afloat.

Meanwhile, finance ministers in Ireland announced a US$7.7bn bailout of three of the country's leading banks. Under the terms of the bailout, the government will take a majority stake in Anglo Irish Bank and will inject capital into Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 2.14% from 2.07% on Friday. The 10-year yield dipped below 3% in November for the first time since the note was first issued in 1962.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate slipped to 1.47% from 1.49% on Friday. The overnight Libor was unchanged at 0.11%. Libor is a key bank lending rate.

The dollar was mixed versus the euro and gained against the pound and the yen. COMEX gold for February delivery gained US$9.80 to US$847.20 an ounce.

US light crude oil for February delivery was down US$2.45 to settle at US$39.91 a barrel in New York. Gasoline prices fell overnight to a national average of US$1.663 a gallon from US$1.668.

European shares declined in the first session of a holiday-shortened week. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 1.6% to 193.32 in Monday's action. The French CAC-40 index declined 2.3% to 3,151.36, while Germany's DAX 30 index lost 1.2% to 4,639.02 and the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 0.9% to 4,249.16.

Weak global cues coupled with selling witnessed in the oil & gas, metals and banking stocks dragged the BSE benchmark Sensex to close below the 10,000 levels on Monday. Markets were lackluster in the first half of the day however, as the session progressed bulls were unable to hold on the 10k levels as traders and investors preferred to book some profits at higher levels.

Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex ended at 9,928 losing 171 points and the NSE Nifty index ended at 3,039 losing 38 points.

Barring the Consumer Durables, FMCG and Realty index all the other BSE sectoral indices ended in the red.

Market breath weakened as the day progressed, 1,295 stocks advanced against 1,242 declines, while, 76 stocks remained unchanged.

KEC International has gained by 3% to Rs152 after the company announced that it received an order for Rs880mn from national electricity company of Tajikistan. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs156 and a low of Rs146 and recorded volumes of over 67,000 shares on BSE.

According to reports, Parsvnath Developers said that work on 12 of its proposed SEZs is proceeding at a slow pace as the land acquisition for those projects was not yet complete.

The stock ended flat at Rs50.05 hitting an intra-day high of Rs53 and a low of Rs49 and recorded volumes of over 84,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of BGR Energy surged by over 2.5% to Rs158 after the company announced that it has signed a pact for condensate polishing plants in India. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs168 and a low of Rs157 and recorded volumes of over 3,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Nalco edged higher by 0.5% to Rs186 after reports stated that the company has entered into a JV agreement with United Arab Emirates government linked RAK Minerals and Metals Investment for setting up a 0.5mn ton smelter in Indonesia at a project cost of around US$4bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs192 and a low of Rs185 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on BSE.

Tata Steel slipped by a 1.6% to Rs225. Reports stated THAT Liberia has cleared the company of all allegations and has invited it to join the bidding process for the Western Cluster iron ore project in that country. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs236 and a low of Rs223 and recorded volumes of over 26,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Fortis healthcare gained by 4.5% to Rs73 after the company announced that it was planning to raise Rs18-20bn via rights or warrants issue, stated reports. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs74 and a low of Rs70 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.

Shares of Wockhardt gained by 3.5% to Rs111 after reports stated that the company would raise Rs5bn via preferential allotment. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs115 and a low of Rs107 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

The Government and regulators have played their roles in perking up market sentiment by unleashing a string of fiscal as well as monetary steps. However, Volatility may inch higher ahead of Wednesday's F&O expiry which is a day earlier due to Christmas holiday on Thursday.

Nifty futures at a premium

Turnover declines

Nifty December 2008 futures were at 3041.65, at a premium of 2.35 points as compared to the spot closing of 3039.30. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment stood at Rs 47,321.10 crore, lower than Rs 50,670.28 crore on Friday, 19 December 2008.

Reliance Industries (RIL) December 2008 futures were at premium at 1293.50 compared to the spot closing of 1285.55.

Reliance Petroleum (RPL) December 2008 futures were at premium at 89.30 compared to the spot closing of 88.75.

Educomp Solutions December 2008 futures were at discount at 2766.90 compared to the spot closing of 2801.55.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 38.20 points or 1.24% at 3039.30

Precious metals shine

Gold and silver prices go up despite a strong dollar

After dropping for three successive sessions, bullion metal prices ended higher on Monday, 22 December, 2008. Bullion metals rose despite the rising dollar. Prices for precious metals went up as the demand for these metals as a safe haven increased amidst this gloomy economic scenario. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Monday, Comex Gold for February delivery rose $9.8 (1.2%) to close at $847.2 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold prices gained 2.1%. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (18%) since then.

This month, gold prices have rose 3.3% till date. For the month of November, gold prices ended higher by 14%. Prior to this, for the month of October, gold had ended lower by 18%. It was the biggest percentage loss for gold since February, 1983.

This year, gold prices are higher by 1.3%. Futures have averaged $860 in 2008. The dollar index has gained 7.5% this year. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.

On Monday, Comex silver futures for March delivery was unchanged at at $10.85 an ounce. Last week, silver gained 63 cents (6%). For the month of November, silver prices had gained 5%. Till date, silver has lost 28% this year.

For the month of October, silver had slipped by 20%. Silver had ended month and quarter of September 2008 with a loss of 10%. For the second quarter, it had gained a paltry 1.4%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. The metal also had gained for seven straight years.

At the currency market on Friday, the dollar was up against most major counterparts. The dollar index gained 1% today.

The Federal Reserve surprised market earlier this week to save the U.S. economy slashing interest rates to just above zero and promising to try an array of new economic measures to stimulate spending. The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee established a target range for the federal funds rate of zero to 0.25%, effectively cutting its key rate for overnight lending to banks by between 0.75% and 1%.

Earlier this year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records this year for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the latest move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 0.25% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in nine steps.

Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for February delivery closed higher by Rs 282 (2.2%) at Rs 13,020 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 13,088 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 12,760 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for March delivery closed Rs 142 (0.81%) higher at Rs 17,679/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 17,633/kg and rose to a high of Rs 17,883/Kg during the day's trading.

Crude plunges again

February contract futures drop on first day of trading due to demand concerns

Crude prices continued to drop substantially even on Monday, 22 December, 2008. Prices fell due to a strong dollar, ongoing global economic crisis and lower energy demand.

On Monday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for February delivery closed at $39.91/barrel (lower by $2.45 or 5.8%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the day, prices were trading higher by 2.5%. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 72.7% since then. Last, prices ended lower by almost $12.41 or 27%. For this year in 2008, crude prices have dropped 60%.

For the month of November, crude prices ended lower by 19.7%. Before this, for the month of October, 2008, crude prices had ended lower by 32.6%, the biggest monthly drop since 1983.

As per reports, crude imports to China, the world second-largest consumer of oil, fell to their lowest level this year. The country imported 13.36 million tons of crude in November, or 3.25 million barrels a day, down 1.9% from a year ago.

OPEC President Chakib Khelil said over the weekend that that the cartel is willing to further reduce output as much as necessary to stabilize oil prices.

After a meeting in Oran, Algeria, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels a day from its actual September production level of 29.045 million barrels a day on 17 December, 2008. The production cut is effective on 1 January, 2009. Excluding previously announced cuts, OPEC will actually cut its daily production by 2.2 million barrels from current levels. That constitutes its biggest production cut ever.

Against this background, January reformulated gasoline tumbled 8.6% to 88.62 cents a gallon, and January heating oil slid 3.6% to $1.3415 a gallon.

January natural-gas futures fell 3.9% to $5.334 per million British thermal units.

At the MCX, crude oil for January delivery closed at Rs 2,025/barrel, lower by Rs 24 (1.2%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for January delivery closed at Rs 254/mmbtu, lower by Rs 7.5/mmbtu (2.8%).

India Valuations, Wipro

India Valuations, Wipro

SGX Nifty Live Update - Dec 23 2008

SGX Nifty currently at 3,018.5 and is trading at -30.5 points

January futures at 3,055.0 and is -11.0 points

Satyam Computers, Hindustan Zinc

Satyam Computers, Hindustan Zinc

India Telecom Sector

India Telecom

Infosys Technologies

Infosys Technologies



Bank of Baroda

Bank of Baroda