Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) 60.6831 times
Non Institutional Investors / HNI 44.9865 times
Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) 15.7688 times
Employee Reservation 0.4118 times
Overall - 42.32 times
Indian Indices traded in a range bound manner with majors like Tisco, L&T, ONGC supported the rally as market closed up. Global cues were positive with Asian Indices ending in green territory and Europe in green too. Metal stocks like SAIL, Tisco, Hindalco all rallied for the day talks that China had scrapped subsidy on steel exports. There is the bidding for Corus which is on and that lent its feel to the markets. Cement saw yet another day of profit taking. Mid caps and Small contributed their part in the rally with good results. Maruti launched a Diesel Variant of Swift today which brought in some interest here. Oil majors ONGC too traded as Crude prices jumped to trade around $55 A barrel. Not a good sign for Oil Marketing companies which investors reacted with their feet and stocks were down 2% plus each.
Sensex ended up 69 points at 14110.46 helped up by gains in TISCO (481.45,+4 percent), L & T (1576.8,+3 percent), ONGC (913.25,+3 percent), HDFC Bk (1056.8,+2 percent) and Hindalco (168.85,+2 percent). Restricting the gains were HLL (214.25,-4 percent), Tata Motors (916.2,-4 percent), Cipla (248.7,-2 percent), RCVL (434.95,-1 percent) and ACC (1026.35,-1 percent).
Bank of Baroda results were above the street expectations. The company's Q3 net profit was up at Rs 329 crore in the third quarter versus Rs 202 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Net interest income was up 17.8% at Rs 961 crore from Rs 815 crore. The total income has grown QoQ by almost 33% and the other income had also gone up 21%. Total business has gone up by 37%. The net profit was up by 62.8%, while the net interest income was up by 18.1%. The net interest margin had improved from 3.18% to 3.21%. Bank also has ambitious plans for overseas expansions. Overseas business contributes 18% towards total business and 35% to net profit. Bank has presence in 21 countries with 60 branches and has licenses for 10 more overseas branches. Stockjumped to end higher by 5.16%.
L&T the engineering major reported that the company's engineering and construction division has bagged three orders from the Delhi Metro Rail Corporation for the second phase of the Delhi Metro project (L&T was also involved in the first phase, which has been successfully completed). The projects are valued at Rs 360 Cr (US$ 79 m). The second phase of this project is targeted for completion by 2010, in time for the Commonwealth Games to be held in New Delhi. While two of the three contracts are directly in L&T's fold, the remaining one contract will be implemented as a joint venture with some international and domestic contractors. L&T executed Rs 700 cr (US$ 156 m) worth of contracts in the first phase of the Delhi Metro project. L&T rallied to support indices to close high.
The Cement stocks took it on the chin. The overall impact is unlikely as bad as the stocks make it out to be. A cut in import duty will not lead to any big imports. Its too difficult to import cement.. It needs large storage facilities and a strong distribution network. However given that the Government is so keen to keep prices low, the announcement of price hikes could have the Government banning exports as well and thats the worry. Ambuja was the big loser. The Government has put a freeze to trading on a couple of commodities.. i.e . Urad and Tur futures trade has been banned. Such irrationality needs to be priced into commodities and thats reason for some caution.
FNO closing is an event which will get over.. Its the results which keep flowing in thick and fast. Most of the numbers are good but there are a few negative surprises as well. There are others where performance did not meet raised expectations and the stocks came off despite good comparative numbers. Its all about expectations. Markets will now bring in expectations from the budget. With the economy doing what it is, expecting a further phillip from the budget would be asking for too much. However no one can stop expectations. The pink papers put them out daily.
Technically Speaking: Sensex Traded ranged ahead of FNO expiry. Declines were ahead of Advances. Market turnover stood good at Rs 4,447 cr. Market traded in the range of 14156 and 14043. Sensex Resistance lies at 14170-14220 levels and support at 14058-13994 levels.
The market rallied smartly towards the close on buying in select heavyweight, metal, capital goods and oil stocks and ended the session with gains of 69 points at 14110. The Sensex opened in positive territory at 14070 on the back of firm international markets and rallied further to touch the day's high at 14156.The market appeared to be heading towards a negative close after a strong bout of profit taking in the afternoon chopped off 112 points from the gains. The Sensex ended the session with gains of 69 points at 14110, while the Nifty added 24 points to close at 4090.
The breadth of the market was neutral. Of the 2,674 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,296 stocks advanced, 1,329 stocks declined and 49 stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices the BSE Metal index advanced 3.72% at 9229 followed by the BSE CG index (up 1.52% at 9469), the BSE PSU index (up 1.34% at 6232) and the BSE Oil & gas index (up 0.97% at 6639). However, the BSE Auto index, the BSE CD index, the BSE FMCG index, the BSE HC index and the BSE Teck index closed in negative territory.
L&T jumped 2.85% at Rs1,577, ONGC added 2.52% at Rs913, HDFC Bank advanced 2.50% at Rs1,057, BHEL was up 2.36% at Rs2,370 and HDFC added 2.26% at Rs1,643. Wipro, Maruti Udyog and ICICI Bank gained over 1% each. Among the metal stocks Sesa Goa soared 10.53%, SAIL added 7.52% and JSW Steel jumped 6.49%. Jindal Steel, Tata Steel and Sterlite Industries added over 3% each.
Over 80.35 lakh SAIL shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Kotak Bank (39.65 lakh shares), IDFC (34.57 lakh shares), Reliance Communication (33.46 lakh shares) and Tata Steel (30.47 lakh shares).
Firm global markets, short-covering in derivatives and a surge in FII buying sparked a recovery on the domestic bourses after Tuesday’s 168-point fall. A bout of intra-day volatility was witnessed ahead of the expiry of January 2007 derivatives contracts on Thursday (25 January 2007). .
The 30-share BSE Sensex gained 69.22 points (0.49%), to settle at 14,110.46. The S&P CNX Nifty advanced 23.80 points (0.59%), to settle at 4089.90.
The market was afflicted by volatility. The Sensex had almost evened out in mid-afternoon trade, but rose again during the latter part of the session. It had dropped to 14,043.54 at 14:06 IST, just 2.30 points more for the day. The barometer index had gained as many as 115 points, to 14,156.46, in early trade.
The market-breadth turned negative in the latter part of trading in contrast to a strong breadth earlier during the day. For 1,345 shares declining on BSE, 1,287 rose and 49 remained unchanged. Losers outpaced gainers by a ratio of 1.04:1.
Nifty January 2007 futures finished at 4098.95, compared to the spot Nifty closing of 4,089.90. Nifty February 2007 futures ended at 4107.
The BSE metal index was the top gainer among sectoral indices. It rose 331.25 points (3.7%), to settle at 9,228.90. While the BSE banking sector index, the Bankex, added 69.21 points (0.9%), to end on 7,383.82, the BSE PSU index gained 82.14 points (1.3%), to 6,231.89. The BSE Auto index lost 61.53 points (1.1%), to settle at 5,539.78.
The BSE Small-Cap Index added 42.61 points (0.5%), to settle at 7,543.89, against a BSE Mid-Cap Index rally of 14.30 points (0.24%), to 6,028.48.
The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4448, compared to Tuesday’s Rs 4055.48 crore.
Tata Steel jumped 4% to Rs 483.20. A block deal of 20 lakh shares was struck in the counter at Rs 471. Tata Steel said on Wednesday its Singapore-based subsidiary NatSteel Asia increased its holding in three of NatSteel's units. All three stakes were bought from Malaysia's Southern Steel Berhad, Tata Steel said.
L&T gained nearly 3% to Rs 1577, after bagging Rs 355 crore order. Larsen & Toubro also said it will invest Rs 500 crore over the next five years in a technology park in Gujarat.
Bharat Heavy Electricals rose nearly 3% to Rs 2382, after the company said it had a contract for building two, 500-megawatt units at a power plant in West Bengal.
Maruti Udyog rose 1.5% to Rs 934, after the car maker launched a diesel version of the Swift.
ICICI Bank gained 1% to Rs 975.10, and HDFC Bank rose 2.8% to Rs 1060. On Tuesday, HDFC Bank's ADR gained 1.6% to $75.89, while ICICI Bank's rose 1.8% to $44.54.
HDFC gained 2.2% to Rs 1643, ahead of the Q3 results, slated for release today. Four brokerages expect 20.1 - 27.1% growth in HDFC’s Q3 net profit, between Rs 341.80 crore and Rs 361.70 crore, compared to a net profit of Rs 284.52 crore in December 2005 quarter.
ONGC rose 2.7% to Rs 915, following Tuesday’s surge in oil price.
Hindalco gained 2.8% to Rs 169.65, tracking a recovery in global base metal prices. The company unveils Q3 results tomorrow.
Tata Motors lost 3.3% to Rs 918. Tata Motors reported 11.5% growth in net profit in December 2006 quarter, to Rs 513.17 crore from Rs 460.23 crore in December 2005 quarter. The company’s revenue for the quarter rose 37% to Rs 6956.84 crore (Rs 5074.86 crore). The numbers were unveiled after trading hours on Tuesday.
Hindustan Lever was down 3% to Rs 215.30. A strong 15.1 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE.
Cipla shed 2.2% to Rs 248. After trading hours on Tuesday, Cipla reported a marginal 5.2% growth in net profit in December 2006 quarter, to Rs 184.38 crore (Rs 175.31 crore). Net sales rose 12.8% to Rs 880.54 crore (Rs 780.62 crore).
Bharti Airtel rose 0.4% to Rs 692. The telecom regulator on Wednesday slashed tariffs for national roaming on mobile networks by up to 56%, further reducing already low call rates in the fastest growing mobile market. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India said the new tariffs, effective from Feb. 15, will be applicable for the dominant GSM network as well as the CDMA platform.
Reliance Communications shed 1% to Rs 436.65. The finance ministry has approved Reliance Communications’ proposed issue of $1.2 billion of American or Global Depository Receipts. Reliance Communications said in a regulatory filing earlier this month that it wanted to raise $1.2 billion to expand.
Among index heavyweights Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 0.4% to Rs 1367, whereas Infosys shed 0.6% to Rs 2221.
Bank of Baroda gained 5% to Rs 247.45, after it reported a net profit of Rs 329 crore in December 2006 quarter, compared to a net profit of Rs 202 crore in December 2005 quarter.
Oriental Bank of Commerce was down 0.2% to Rs 223.90. It also posted a net profit of Rs 182.42 crore in the December 2006 quarter, compared to a net profit of Rs 143.42 crore in the December 2005 quarter.
Indian Overseas Bank gained 3% to Rs 115.40. It had posted a net profit of Rs 246.78 crore in December 2006 quarter, compared to a net profit of Rs 197.21 crore in the December 2005 quarter.
Corporation Bank rose 1.4% to Rs 315.75. It also posted a net profit of Rs 146.42 crore in December 2006 quarter, compared to a net profit of Rs 115.07 crore in December 2005 quarter.
Radha Madhav Corporation jumped 5% to Rs 54.90. The company reported a net profit of Rs 3.54 crore in December 2006 quarter, compared to almost breakeven results for December 2005 quarter.
Textiles firm Bombay Rayon Fashions dropped 4% to Rs 203.25, after the company said Citigroup Global Markets (Mauritius) purchased 3.22 million shares, or 5.12% stake, in the company.
Pyramid Saimira Theatre jumped 16% to Rs 292.85. The stock rose on heavy volume of 91.7 lakh shares on BSE.
Gitanjali Gems rose 0.7% to Rs 231.55, after the jewellery maker and retailer reported an 86% increase in net profit in December 2006 quarter, to Rs 24.83 crore.
MRPL rose almost 2% to Rs 45.30, after it reported a surge in net profit in December 2006 quarter, to Rs 118.46 crore from Rs 19.36 crore in December 2005 quarter. Total income rose to Rs 7397.44 crore from Rs 6815.66 crore.
Varun Shipping (down 2% to Rs 64.80) slipped for the second day in a row, after a 24.8% fall in net profit in December 2006 quarter, to Rs 39.62 crore (Rs 52.72 crore). Income from operations declined 13.5%, to Rs 163.47 crore (Rs 189.09 crore).
Kinetic Engineering jumped nearly 15% to Rs 150.70, following reports that the company expects sales of Rs 180 crore in calendar 2007, as it expands its auto components business, which it started last year. The company, now only makes auto components, after it sold its motorcycle business to Kinetic Motor Company, a group firm.
European markets edged up in early trade. Key benchmark indices in London, Germany and France were up between 0.1 - 0.7%. Asian markets were firm. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were up between 0.25 - 1.4%.
US stocks gained on Tuesday, as a spike in crude oil prices lifted shares of energy companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp., while strong profits from United Technologies Corp gave investors a reason to buy aerospace stocks.
The Dow Jones industrial average gained 56.64 points, or 0.45%, to end at 12,533.80. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 5.04 points, or 0.35%, to finish at 1,427.99. The Nasdaq Composite Index inched up just 0.34 of a point, or 0.01%, to 2,431.41.
Nymex crude was down 35 cents to $54.69 a barrel. It rose nearly $2.50 on Tuesday, when the United States announced plans to build up emergency crude reserves, and as colder weather pushed up demand in the world's top consumer.
FIIs stepped up buying on Monday (22 January). FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 320 crore on 22 January, compared to Friday (19 January)’s inflow of Rs 76.80 crore. Sustained buying by FIIs over the past few days, which followed their substantial sales earlier this month, is also an important factor. FIIs have been net buyers in seven out of the last eight trading sessions.
As per provisional data, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 127 crore on Tuesday (23 January), the day when the Sensex lost 168 points. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 30 crore in index-based futures that day. They were net sellers to the tune of Rs 510 crore in individual stock futures on the same day.The Q3 results announced so far were good. The season is in its last lap and the focus will shift to the Union Budget 2007-08 and related expectations. The RBI meeting for monetary policy is on 31 January 2007. With inflation surging to a two-year high of over 6%, the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates
Sell Canara Bank with a stop loss of Rs 280 for target of Rs 190
Sell Dr Reddy Laboratories with a stop loss of Rs 800 for target of Rs 680
Short Sell State Bank of India above Rs 1165 with stop loss of Rs 1180. Its a day-trading recommendation.
Buy Nucleus Software below Rs 840 with stop loss of Rs 820. Its a day-trading recommendation.
Rajat K Bose
Sell Voltas around last close with stop loss above Rs 106.10 for target of Rs 95.20
Buy Nagarjuna Fertiliser with stop loss below Rs 15.85 for target of Rs 18.50.
Concrete gains likely
The most important thing is not to stop questioning.
Yesterday the cement counters cracked following the Government's decision to slash import duties on cement, capital goods and select raw materials. This was done to curtail inflation. Cement shares were hit amid fears that the move could lead to cheaper imports and hurt local players. After some questioning, investors will realize that the panic selling was overdone. Portland cement accounts for just over 30% of total output in the country, according to estimates. So, expect a bounce back this morning in cement stocks to begin with. Banking stocks were hammered following the disappointing results from leader SBI. However, other banks have reported good numbers. As a result, here too, we could see a rebound today.
Do not get trapped in the bounce back. Remember, the key indices are trading near their record levels. Signs from the F&O segment are not very encouraging. Open interest in Nifty January Futures is down with the premium between the Spot Nifty and the Futures narrowing. This indicates that long positions have been liquidated. The difference between the underlying index and the Nifty February Futures too has reduced with a sharp rise in open interest. This shows that some short positions have been created. Hence, one should remain on guard for any untoward development.
We expect a higher opening in line with the firm trend in Asian markets. US stocks too closed higher. The Nasdaq, however finished flat. There's one bad news though. Oil prices climbed past the $55 per barrel mark in New York yesterday. In extended trading in Asia, the front-month crude contract was quoting 17 cents higher at $54.87 a barrel. FII inflows are not too exciting at the moment. They were net buyers of Rs1.27bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday. In the F&O segment, they offloaded stocks worth Rs3.43bn. On Monday, foreign funds pumped in Rs3.19bn. Mutual Fund on the other hand pulled out Rs542.3mn.
Some of the key results today include: Allahabad Bank, Apollo Hospitals, BoB, Bombay Dyeing, Corporation Bank, HDFC, Petronet LNG, Prithvi Info, HCL Infosystems, IOB, M&M Financial, OBC, Rolta and Sasken.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 rose, while the Nasdaq was little changed, as investors struggled to absorb a nearly 5% jump in oil prices and a spate of mixed earnings reports.
The Dow industrials added 56.64, or 0.5%, to 12,533.80, its first gain in five days. The S&P 500 rose 5.04, or 0.4%, to 1427.99. The Nasdaq ended static at 2431.41.
Among the Indian ADRs, Patni surged 7.8%, Infy rose 1.5%, Satyam gained 1.7%, Tata Motors lost over 1%, Dr. Reddy's dropped 4.7%, HDFC Bank advanced 1.7% and ICICI Bank tacked on 1.8%.
European shares closed in the red, hit by technology-sector weakness. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index lost 0.1% at 372.61. The German DAX Xetra 30 closed down 0.1% at 6,678.93 and the French CAC-40 slipped 0.1% to 5,575.07. The UK's FTSE 100, however, gained 0.2% to 6,227.60.
Asian markets are on firm footing this morning. The Nikkei was up 113 points at 17,552 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong too climbed 128 points to 20,898.
The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index rose 0.4% to 142.17 at 12:11 p.m. in Tokyo, heading for the highest close since May 10. The gauge is within 1% of its record close on May 8.
Stock benchmarks in Australia, China, Hong Kong and Singapore were set to close at all-time highs. Indexes in markets open for trading gained, except in Indonesia.
In emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil gained 1.4% while the RTS index in Russia was up 0.8%.
Major Bulk Deals:
Morgan Stanley has picked up Lloyd Electric; Citigroup has sold Orient Hotels; Deutsche Securities has purchased Phoenix Mills; Tata MF has sold Punjab Chemicals; Morgan Stanley has sold REI Agro; Goldman Sachs has sold Shriram Transport; Goldman Sachs has bought Sical Logistics from Lloyd George Investment; Citigroup has sold Venus Remedies; HSBC has picked up Vyapar Industries.
The turnover on NSE was up by 5.9% to Rs80.26bn. BSE Bank index was the major loser and lost by 2.17%. BSE Pharma index (down 1.66%), BSE Consumer Durable index (down 1.53%), BSE PSU index (down 1.29%) and BSE FMCG index (down 1.11%) were among the other major losers.
IFCI, Nagarjuna Fertilizers, SAIL, India Cement, TTML, Shree Ashtavinayak, IDBI, R Com, Satyam Computer, Aftek, Balrampur Chini, Hindalco, ITC, MTNL, IDFC, KPIT Cummins, Ispat Industries, Ashok Leyland and Voltas.
Upper Circuit Filters:
Flex Industries, Heritage Foods, Pyramid Saimira, Nesco, Crest Animation, Ganesh housing, Hindustan Dorr and Suven Life.
Apollo Tyres, Bharat Forge, Cambridge Solutions, Educomp Solutions, Gammon India, GTC Industries, Indiabulls, Jammu and Kashmir Bank, Orchid Chemicals, Sun TV, Tata Power and Zee Entertainment.
Great Offshore – Buy from Kotak with target of Rs878.
Long Term Investment:
Major News Headlines:
Bharti Airtel Q3 profit at Rs12.15bn (up 122%); revenues at Rs49.13bn (up 62%)
SBI Q3 net at Rs10.65bn (down 9.5%); total income at Rs115.47bn (up 1.2%)
Glenmark developing asthma drug with Forest Labs
Neyveli Lignite Q3 profit at Rs1.52bn (up 11.7%), revenues at Rs6.42bn (down 6.5%)
BEML Q3 profit at Rs529.7mn (down 5%); revenues at Rs5.59bn (up 5.6%)
Tata Motors Q3 profit at Rs5.13bn (up 11.5%), sales at Rs69.56bn (up 37%)
Cipla Q3 profit at Rs1.84bn (up 5.1%), sales at Rs8.81bn (up 12.5%)
Hindustan Zinc cuts prices by 2.3% to Rs188,000 per ton
Indian Hotels Q3 profit at Rs879.9mn (up 42.9%), revenues at Rs4.12bn (up 25%)
Grasim Q3 profit at Rs4.12bn (up 154%), sales at Rs22.79bn (up 37%)
LIC Housing Finance Q3 profit at Rs766.1mn (up 31%), total income at Rs4.05bn (up 27%)
Bank of India
Profit growth was not only above expectation, but was qualitatively better as well. Bank managed 16bps margin expansion on an expanded loan book of 28%. BOI’s growth story of recovering asset quality along with improving loan mix leading to margin expansion is playing out well. Despite factoring in an equity dilution of 20%, we expect ROE to remain around 19%. We rate BOI as the best play on the Indian Banking sector among the PSU banks. We reiterate our positive stance on the stock with a BUY rating and a price target of Rs268, implying an upside potential of 31%
Rapid asset growth, though managed well through rising CASA ratio
Digressing from its guidance of 24-25% loan growth, bank grew its loan book by 28%, aided mainly by the retail segment (55% growth yoy). However, this was managed well through higher CASA mobilization, which grew by 22% yoy to 41.3% up from 40.4% in Q2 FY07.
Rising share of retail loan book now forming 32.3% from 27% in Q3 FY06, along with improving mix of international loan book expanded yields by 78bps yoy to 8.4%. Funding cost also remained under control with rising CASA ratio, restricting deposit cost rise to 30bps yoy to 4.4%. This expanded margins by 16bps yoy to 3.2%, while domestic NIMs expanded by a huge 21bps to 3.8%.
BOI’s main investment theme of improving asset quality continued to play out well with gross NPAs coming down by Rs334mn qoq to Rs21.8bn, while net NPAs fell by Rs404mn to Rs7.5bn. Net NPAs on a proportionate basis have come down to less than 1% from 1.1% in Q2 FY07.
Volatility likely to continue
The markets ended on a weak note as profit booking was witnessed in the scrip’s across the sectors. Weak openings were led by subdued global cues. Decision of the government to cut import rates further dragged the benchmark index to hit an intra-day low of 14025.74. All the key indices closed in red as profit booking in the blue chips like Dr Reddy’s Lab, SBI, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, HLL, RIL and Infosys. Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex lost 168 points to close at 14041. NSE Nifty slipped by 36 points to close at 4066. The bank index was the major loser and lost 2.17%, Consumer Durable, FMCG and Pharma followed suit.
BEML declined 2.5% to Rs1125 after the company announced its Q3 result with profit at Rs529.7mn (down 5%) and revenue at Rs5.59bn (up 5.6%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1175 and a low of Rs1080 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.
SBI slipped 4.1% to Rs1174 after the company declared its Q3 result with net profit at Rs10.65bn (down 9.5%) and total income at Rs115.47bn (up 1.2%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1231 and a low of Rs1167 and recorded volumes of over 21,00,000 shares on NSE.
Nalco surged nearly by 4% to Rs221 after the company declared its Q3 result with net profit at Rs5.72bn (up 46%) and sales 14.48bn (up 9.3%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs223 and a low of Rs212 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.
Reliance Industries was down 1% to Rs1360. The company announced that it has no plans to spin off KG basin oil and gas fields. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1380 and a low of Rs1357 and recorded volumes of over 12,00,000 shares on NSE.
Cement stocks slipped heavily as government decision to cut import rates dragged them down. Heavy weight ACC lost.7% to Rs1036, Gujarat Ambuja slipped over 7% to Rs136, Mangalam Cement dropped over 9% to Rs224 and India Cement slipped over 8% to Rs220.
Auto stocks were in reverse gear led by selling pressure. Maruti dropped 2.1% to Rs918, Tata Motors slipped 1.3% to Rs950, Hero Honda lost 1% to Rs717 and M&M edged lower 0.8% to Rs921.Metal stocks also lost their shine on back of profit booking. Tata Steel fell 1.5% to Rs464, SAIL was down by 1.2% to Rs97, Sterlite Industries dropped 2.3% to Rs516 and Hindustan Zinc was down 1.5% to Rs757
The Asian indices in the ongoing trades are in green and overnight gains in global market may help the local bourses to open on a positive note in early trades. However, it likely to extend its downward trend on account of unwinding of position of Jan series derivative contracts and yesterday's correction likely to keep the sentiment bearish. Among the major domestic indices, the Nifty could test 4044 on the downside and faces resistance at 4100. The Sensex has a likely support at 13940 and test higher levels of 114150.
US indices registered gains on Tuesday amid fresh rise in crude oil prices and worries of mixed earnings reports. While the Dow Jones rose by 57 points to close at 12534, the Nasdaq ended 0.34 points up at 2431.
Most of the Indian ADRs gained on the US bourses. Rediff gained 2.8% while MTNL, Infosys, Satyam,ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank gained over 1-2% each. While Dr Reddy's lab lost 4.69% and Tata Motors, Wipro , VSNL declined over 0.5-1% each.
Crude oil prices gained strength after slipping in the last few sessions. The Nymex light crude oil for March delivery rose $2.46 to close at $55.04. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for February series added $11.80 to settle at $645.90 a troy ounce.
The market may recover from Tuesday’s 168 points, fall tracking firm Asian markets and with data showing a surge in FII inflow. But volatility may prevail ahead of Thursday (25 January)’s expiry of January 2007 derivatives contracts.
FIIs stepped up buying on Monday 22 January. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 320 crore on 22 January compared to their Friday (19 January)’s inflow of Rs 76.80 crore. There has been sustained buying by FIIs over the past few days, which followed their substantial sales earlier this month. FIIs have been net buyers in seven out of the last eight trading sessions.
As per provisional data, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 127 crore on Tuesday 23 January, the day when Sensex had lost 168 points. FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 30 crore in index-based futures on that day. They were net sellers to the tune of Rs 510 crore in individual stock futures on that day.
After trading hours on Tuesday, Tata Motors reported 11.5% growth in net profit in December 2006 quarter to Rs 513.17 crore from Rs 460.23 crore in December 2005 quarter. The key result today is that of housing finance major HDFC. Four brokerages expect a between 20.1% to 27.1% growth in HDFC’s Q3 net profit to between Rs 341.80 crore to Rs 361.70 crore compared to a net profit of Rs 284.52 crore in December 2005 quarter.
Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, with Japan's Nikkei nearing a 6-1/2-year high. A more than 4 percent surge in oil and rising gold and base metals prices boosted commodities-related stocks, sending Australia's resource-heavy main index to a record high and pushing Hong Kong's Hang Seng to a new peak.
US stocks gained on Tuesday as a spike in crude oil prices lifted shares of energy companies, including Exxon Mobil Corp., while strong profits from United Technologies Corp. gave investors a reason to buy aerospace stocks. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 56.64 points, or 0.45 percent, to end at 12,533.80. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 5.04 points, or 0.35 percent, to finish at 1,427.99. The Nasdaq Composite Index inched up just 0.34 of a point, or 0.01 percent, to 2,431.41
Oil dipped back below $55 a barrel, after racing nearly $2.50 higher on Tuesday as the United States announced plans to build up its emergency crude reserves and as colder weather pushed up demand in the world's top consumer. NYMEX crude for March delivery edged down 7 cents to $54.97 a barrel.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs134
Current market price: Rs93
- The Q3FY2007 results of Omax Autos are ahead of our estimates due to higher margins during the quarter.
- The net sales for the quarter rose by 9% to Rs179.4 crore, led by a 7.9% growth in the domestic revenues and a 32% growth in the export revenues.
- The operating profit for the quarter rose by 52.8% to Rs18.5 crore mainly due to a 300-basis-point improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM) to 10.3%. This is a result of various cost saving initiatives implemented by the company in order to bring down its power, personnel and other manufacturing costs.
- The other income is higher than estimated at Rs2.72 crore. Aggressive capacity expansion plans of the company have also led to higher interest and depreciation costs. The profit after tax (PAT) for the quarter stood at Rs6.66 crore, rising by 34.3%.
- The company has also announced that it would set up a new manufacturing unit in Lucknow to manufacture chassis for Tata Motors. The unit would be set up with an initial capacity of 48,000 chassis and is expected to deliver revenues of Rs120 crore by FY2009 and of about Rs225 crore by FY2011.
- At the current market price of Rs93, the stock discounts its FY2008E earnings by 6.3x and quotes at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 3.7x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs134.
Bank of India
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs220
Current market price: Rs196
Another excellent quarter
- For Q3FY2007 Bank of India (BOI) reported numbers well above the market?s and our expectations. The growth in its net interest income (NII) and other income was in line with the expectations of a good set of numbers. What made the good results look even better was the restrain the bank showed in case of operating expenses.
- The NII grew by 26.9% to Rs920 crore against our estimate of Rs936.3 crore. The 26.9% growth in the NII was brought about by a 22.3% growth in the assets and a 16-basis-point improvement in the global net interest margin (NIM) year on year (yoy) to 3.18%.
- The other income reported a 22.8% growth with the trading income showing a very high growth of 144.5% yoy to Rs55.5 crore. The core fee income was up 22.6% yoy while the recoveries declined by 49% to Rs14.9 crore.
- The operating expenses grew by a sedate 15.3% to Rs627.9 crore as the staff expenses grew by only 7.8% and the other expenses grew by 29.6% yoy.
- The operating profit was up by 38.7% yoy to Rs614.4 crore and the core operating profit excluding the treasury income was up 33% yoy to Rs558.9 crore.
- The provisions increased by 16.6% to Rs289.8 crore with the non-performing asset (NPA) provisions up 55.6% to Rs190.9 crore. Lower taxes during the quarter also helped the profit after tax (PAT) to report a 78% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth while the profit before tax (PBT) grew by 67% yoy.
- At the current market price of Rs196, the stock is quoting at 8.1x its FY2008E earnings per share, 3.3x its FY2008E pre-provisioning profits and 1.5x FY2008E book value. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs220.
Cluster: Emerging Star
Price target: Rs425
Current market price: Rs345
Extraordinary income boosts net profits
- The net sales of Cadila Healthcare (Cadila) increased by 24.7% year on year (yoy) to Rs460.9 crore in Q3FY2007. The growth was driven by a 105.1% growth in the formulation exports and a 13.4% rise in the exports of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). The sales growth was ahead of our expectations.
- The 105.1% jump in the formulation exports was driven by the improved performance of the French business (a growth of 188.3% year on year [yoy]) and US business (a growth of 105% yoy). New launches in the USA and regulatory reforms in France led to the strong growth of the US and French businesses respectively.
- An 84.5% rise in the company's generic research and development (R&D) expenses, along with an increased advertising spend in the consumer business, caused Cadila's operating profit margin (OPM) to shrink by 200 basis points to 17.4% in Q3FY2007. However, in view of the fact that the increased advertising spend for the consumer business was a one-time charge, we expect the margin to bounce back in the future quarters.
- Consequently, the operating profit (OP) of the company rose by 12.3% to Rs82.3crore in the quarter.
- Cadila's adjusted net profit grew by a robust 66.4% to Rs65.9 crore, on the back of a one-time extraordinary income of Rs19.6 crore from the sale of the French branded business. The profit growth surpassed our expectations. However, on excluding the extraordinary income, the reported net profit stood at Rs46.3 crore, up by 12.9% yoy. The earnings for the quarter stood at Rs3.7 per share.
- The company has signed three new contract manufacturing contracts during the quarter with international companies, taking the cumulative number of contracts to 20, with peak revenue potential of $27.5 million. Cadila has also filed three abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) in the quarter, taking the total number of filings to 44 ANDAs.
- At the current market price of Rs345, the company is quoting at 14.7x its FY2008 estimate earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the company with a price target of Rs425.
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs820
Current market price: Rs689
Price target revised to Rs820
- Bharti Airtel has announced a robust revenue growth of 12.8% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 62.4% year on year (yoy) to Rs4,912.9 crore for Q3FY2007. The sequential revenue growth was evenly driven by a 13.8% rise in the mobile revenues and a 12.4% growth in the non-mobile businesses.
- The company has positively surprised on the margin front, with a 170-basis-point sequential improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM) to 40.8%--one of the highest ever reported in any quarter. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 17.7% qoq and 81% yoy to Rs2,005 crore.
- In addition to the healthy growth in the operating profit, the earnings growth was also boosted by the foreign exchange fluctuation gains of Rs219.2 crore on the forward hedges (as compared with a marginal gain in Q2). Consequently, the consolidated earnings grew at an exponential rate of 30.1% qoq and 122.9% yoy to Rs1,215 crore, way ahead of the market expectations of around Rs1,070 crore.
- The other key highlights include the proposed acquisition of 100% stake in the submarine cable network from India to Singapore for a consideration of $110 million. The cable link is currently equally owned by SingTel and one of the Bharti group companies.
- The company introduced call card for international calls from the USA to India that would enable it to generate an alternate source of revenues from the 2.5 million strong non-resident Indian (NRI) community based in the USA. It also announced some new initiatives during the quarter, including the approval to launch wireless mobile (2G and 3G) services in Sri Lanka, a new venture to introduce direct-to-home (DTH) broadcasting services and a possible launch of (Internet Protocol) IP-based television channel distribution (IPTV) system after a successful testing in the National Capital Region (NCR).
- To factor in the better than expected performance, we have revised upwards our earnings estimates by 17% and 7.1% for FY2007 an FY2008 respectively.
- At the current market price the stock trades at 31x FY2007 and 22.2x FY2008 estimated earnings. We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a revised on-year price target of Rs820 (24x rolling four quarters forward earnings).
State Bank of India
Cluster: Apple Green
Price target: Rs1,380
Current market price: Rs1,174
Sequential growth disappoints
- The Q3FY2007 results of State Bank of India (SBI) are below expectations with the bank's profit after tax (PAT) reporting a decline of 4.5% to Rs1,065 crore as against our estimate of Rs1,195 crore.
- The reported net interest income (NII) at Rs3,951 crore is slightly below our estimate of Rs4,034 crore. However the total other income at Rs1,811 crore is much above our expectation of Rs1,551 crore, mainly due to a higher than expected "Others" component in the "Other income" category. The operating expenses are in line with our expectations; however the provisions have risen more than expected, due to an unexpected investment depreciation. A higher than expected growth in the other income has offset the more than expected rise in the provisions to some extent, as it has actually reduced the gap between the actual PAT and the estimated PAT.
- The reported NII is down by 6.4% year on year (yoy) to Rs3,951.3 crore. However the third quarter saw many one-time items adjusted for which the NII growth stands at 33% yoy. But sequentially the NII has grown by only 1.4%.
- The other income is marginally down by 1.6% to Rs1,811 crore, however adjusted for the India Millennium Deposit (IMD) gains, the growth is strong at 38.3%. The core fee income is up 22.9% yoy and the trading income has risen by 139.3%; the same was expected as the bank planned to make up for the low trading income of Rs7.7 crore reported in Q2FY2007. Though the year-on-year (y-o-y) growth rates are good, the core fee income has seen a sequential growth of only 1.9%.
- The operating expenses are down 16% yoy, however adjusting for the voluntary retirement scheme (VRS), wage arrear and extra gratuity payments made to the tune of Rs641 crore, the growth in the operating expenses remains contained. The operating profit is up 9.8% yoy, however the core operating profit is up 27.3% yoy and 1% quarter on quarter (qoq).
- The provisions and contingencies are up 148.2% yoy and 71.2% qoq to Rs1,166.2 crore. The provision base was lower in Q3FY2006 as there was a Rs102.6-crore write-back in the non-performing asset (NPA) provisions during the quarter. This coupled with the unexpected investment depreciation of around Rs158 crore in Q3FY2007 brought about the sharp rise in the total provisions.
- The adjusted numbers reflect a good core income growth on a y-o-y basis, however there has been no sequential improvement which is a cause for concern. With the deposit costs rising steadily and another interest rate hike looking imminent, the pressure on the margin going forward remains the key issue. Hence, the scrip may remain under pressure in the short term until there is more clarity on how the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants to tackle inflation as well as on the measures that the central bank may announce in the latest review of the monetary policy scheduled on January 31, 2007.
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs190
Current market price: Rs146
A brilliant performance
- Ceat's Q3FY2007 results are ahead of our expectations. The net sales have risen by a brilliant 30.7% to Rs536.7 crore on the back of a 14% tonnage growth and a very strong realisation growth. The sales to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have marked a significant improvement of 130% during the quarter whereas the replacement sales have continued to grow at a handsome pace of 25%.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) has expanded by 250 basis points to 7.3% as a result of a lower raw material cost during the quarter as well as avings in the manpower cost and the other overheads. With several price hikes effected in the last one year, the OEM business has also become a lot more profitable, leading to further margin improvement. As a result, the operating profit has grown by 98.3% to Rs39 crore.
- Stable interest and depreciation costs have helped the company to report a 665% growth in the net profit, which stands at Rs11.8 crore.
- Though the rising rubber prices are a concern, we are pretty confident of the pricing power of the tyre industry and expect another price hike from the tyre majors in the next two to three months.
- At the current market price of Rs146, the stock is trading at 9.4x its FY2008E earnings and at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 4.7x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the sock with a price target of Rs190.
Cluster: Emerging Star
Price target: Rs190
Current market price: Rs172
Maintains growth momentum
- ORG Infomatics (ORG) reported a 273.5% growth in its net revenues to Rs108.5 crore during the third quarter ended December 2006. The revenue growth was driven by the execution of some its large orders, especially the Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) order.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 190 basis points to 8.4% as the initial part of the MTNL order involves low-margin hardware supplies.
- However, the jump in the other income (that included a one-time gain of Rs0.8 crore from the sale of assets) aided the overall growth in the earnings. Consequently, the consolidated earnings grew by 70.6% to Rs5.2 crore during the quarter, which is ahead of our expectation of Rs4.6 crore.
- The fresh order intake continues to be robust and the company has been able to maintain the pending order position of around Rs600 crore (marginally lower than Rs625 crore reported in September 2006). The management also indicated that it is pursuing some more large-sized orders and expects to close one to two large orders in the coming months.
- Along with the results the company has also announced the acquisition of 100% sake in the Bangalore-based TechUnified Pvt Ltd (UT) for a total consideration of Rs49 crore (partly paid through issue of 8.93 lakh shares at a price of Rs181 per share). UT is a profitable company at the net level and is expected to report net profit of around Rs7 crore in the current fiscal. It offers wireless, speech and e-Business solutions to financial companies and telecom operators. This is the second acquisition in the month as the company had recently announced the acquisition of a 100% stake in DGIT Solutions.
- At the current market price the stock trades at 17x FY2007 and 11.7x FY2008 estimated earnings. The estimates do not include the impact of the acquisitions as details of the same are awaited. However, the equity dilution has already been factored in the calculation of the earnings per share (EPS). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs190 (10x rolling four quarters forward earnings).
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Price target: Rs179
Current market price: Rs115
Capacity expansion to drive revenue growth
- The net sales of Universal Cables Ltd (UCL) grew by 25% and the growth is in line with our expectations. However the net profit growth of 10.6% is slightly below our expectations on account of a higher than expected increase in the other expenses.
- The net sales for the quarter grew by 25% to Rs87.64 crore. The power cable business grew by 22% to Rs81.66 crore, the capacitors business grew by 9% to Rs3.41 crore and the telephone cable sales stood at Rs2.60 crore against nil in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
- The operating profit margin (OPM) for the quarter declined by 211 basis points to 9.32% as the other expenses to sales ratio increased to 17.09% from 14.60% last year. Hence the operating profit for the quarter grew by just 1.62% to Rs8.17 crore.
- Going forward, we expect the OPM to improve, as the company focuses on the high-end products that have better margins and as its 100% subsidiary, Optic Fibre Goa Ltd (OFGL), turns profitable. The segmental losses from the telephone cable division stood at Rs0.33 crore in this quarter as against Rs0.79 crore in the previous quarter.
- The interest expense for the quarter increased by 48% to Rs1.54 crore, while the depreciation cost for the quarter increased by 81% to Rs1.92 crore.
- Consequently the net profit growth was lower at 10.6% to Rs5 crore.
- At the current market price of Rs115, the stock is quoting at 8.7x its FY2008E earnings per share (EPS) and 5.2x its FY2008E enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA). We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs179.
Zee Entertainment Enterprises
Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd (ZEEL) declared its first set of quarterly numbers after its incorporation on demerger of the erstwhile Zee Telefilms Ltd (ZTL). As of now ZEEL comprises ZTL?s global broadcasting business and direct-to-home (DTH) business. Post-formation of Dish TV India Ltd (Dish TV; likely to be listed in February 2007) the DTH business will be allocated to the new company, leaving ZEEL with the broadcasting operations. Thus the results for Q3FY2007 include the performance of these two revenue streams.
Import duty on cement slashed to zero
With the headline inflation crossing 6%, the government has slashed the customs duty on cement, various raw materials and capital goods to check inflationary pressures. The changes in the duty structure would come into effect immediately. The duty cut comes as no surprise for the cement sector as cement prices have risen unabated in the last one year