Ban on steel exports to drag India in courts overseas

A blanket ban on export of steel items will have serious repercussions as the industry will not only lose international market and dent country’s credibility, but will attract huge litigations in courts overseas.

The ban, according to The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM), Indian exporters on one hand would have to be spending huge amount of money to fight litigations, on the other massive stocks of inventories be piling up of materials already produced specifically for export purposes. Their will be no domestic market or consumption, says the industry body.

The Chamber President, Venugopal N. Dhoot said, its ironical that we continue to export freely the very important raw materials "iron ore" with a nominal export tax and the end-product `steel’ is being banned from export.

The Chamber said, the total percentage of exports of steel at the moment are not more than 6-8% of the total production. A significant part of the exports of steel consist of products which do not have a domestic market or are surplus to domestic requirement. A blanket ban on the export of steel items will put a strain on the existing manufacturers who have imported and established steel mills to convert raw steel into exportable product. With a blanket ban on exports, what happens to the material which necessarily has to be produced or to the equipment already established which will be rendered idle and in fructuous.

The Chamber Chief said the export markets are established with considerable efforts and long term investment. If exports are banned abruptly, international buyers would seek other markets and India would lose its export markets on a very long term basis. It will take years for India to regain export initiative once again.

The major steel manufacturers have already given an assurance to the Steel Ministry on 26th March 2007 that they will be voluntarily controlling exports and exercise self-restraint. Naturally, such self-restraint would not be at the cost of dishonouring existing long term export contracts or failing in their obligations under EPCG to the government and thereby committing an offence.

Government of India has already withdrawn the benefits/incentives given under sovereign assurances to the steel industry to encourage exports through the earlier national trade policies. The effects of these withdrawals are yet to be seen as they have happened only in the last week or so. The exporters have not been given reasonable time to adjust their exports to these withdrawals.

Urging the government to review the iron-ore exports policy, Mr. Dhoot said high and medium-grade iron ore reserves would not last more than 19 years, even if exports of these grades are frozen at the current level and if the targets set out in NSP 2005 are to be met. This necessitates computation of depletion premium for ion ore to carry out economic analysis. The depletion premium works out to US$10.18 for a steel producer located within the state. No such depletion premium has been applied for coking coal, as the prices did not exhibit any trend prior to the recent steep price hike.

Monsoon to be near normal, Inflation cools

The thought that monsoon could be normal brought hopes that inflation may eventually cool. After rising for weeks, inflation for the week ended April 5 fell to 7.14% from 7.41% in the previous week, the Commerce & Industry Ministry said today. Wholesale prices rose 7.14% in the week ended April 5 from a year earlier, after gaining 7.41% in the previous week as against the market expectations of 7.23%. The WPI for All Commodities for the week ended 5th April 2008 rose by 0.3% to 226.6 from 226.0 for the previous week. The index for Primary Articles rose by 0.4% to 236.0 from 235.1 for the previous week while the index for Fuel & Power increased by 0.2% to 342.0 from 341.4 due to higher prices of aviation turbine fuel. The index for Manufactured Products surged by 0.3% to 197.6 from 197.1. Back to monsoon, according to our new classification, the monsoon is likely to be near-normal. The monsoon is likely to be 99 percent of the long-term average, Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal said. The government would regard the monsoon as near normal if rainfall was 96-104 percent of the long-term average, he added. The forecast would be updated again in June.

Infosys ignites the minds and markets

The medium to long term outlook for the tech sector may be weak. But Infosys managed to meet the street expectations as it posted a rupee revenue growth of 6.3% qoq in Q4 FY08. Volume growth was modest at 4.9% qoq while pricing improvement was negligible. Slow growth was witnessed in the US region along with a material de-growth in banking and financial services segment. EBITDA margin was stable qoq at 32.5% aided by SG&A leverage, better subsidiary profitability, rupee depreciation and absence of one-time expenditure. Q4 FY08 net profit growth of 4.1% qoq, excluding the tax reversals, was marginally below India Infoline expectations. Announcement of a special dividend of Rs20 and increase in payout policy was a positive surprise.

Terming the business environment as challenging and imposing revenue loss risk, management guides for a weak Q1 FY09. "Our Global Delivery Model, combined with our consulting and solution capabilities, provides a strong platform for customers seeking efficiencies in their IT spend," said S. Gopalakrishnan, CEO and Managing Director. "Thus, while there could be short-term challenges due to global economic uncertainties, we as a company see significant growth opportunities in the medium to long term."

FY09 guidance of 19-21% revenue growth and EPS of Rs92.3-93.9 is healthy. We believe that strong back-ended revenue growth expectation (Q2-Q4 FY09 CQGR 5.6-6.7%) and Re/$ assumption of Rs40 are key risks in the guidance

Weekly Stock Picks - Apr 18 2008

HDIL

SAIL

Punj Lloyd

Vijaya Bank

Voltas

Weekly Newsletter - Apr 17 2008

After a short and sweet week, it's going to be a flood of results next week. The big ticket ones on Monday include Reliance Industries, TCS and Satyam among others. And as if all that was not enough, the RBI has hiked CRR.

While individual stocks will swing to the numbers announced, the overall market sentiment will continue to be driven by global factors. The government is stepping up efforts to reign in inflation. The results, both local and global have been so far on expected lines and in some cases better than expectations. Counters like Infosys which have had a good run this week may see some cooling.

Most importantly, on April 21 (Monday), short selling will commence. It may be recalled that SEBI had decided to operationalise short-selling by institutional investors and a full-fledged securities lending and borrowing scheme for all market participants with effect from April 21. Get ready for an action packed week beginning Monday.

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Apr 17 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Scrip Name Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
17/4/2008 517356 ACI INFOCOM ALOKGUPTA S 56000 4.71
17/4/2008 531223 ANJANI SYNTH ANKIT NARENDRA BAHUVA S 61514 29.53
17/4/2008 509026 ARTHEON ANKITKUMAR GANERIWAL B 55000 10.20
17/4/2008 509026 ARTHEON ASHISH SANTOSHKUMAR GANERIWAL B 52700 10.20
17/4/2008 509026 ARTHEON SUCHITA SYNTEX PVT LTD B 54000 10.20
17/4/2008 509026 ARTHEON ANUJ SANTOSH GANERIWAL B 54000 10.20
17/4/2008 509026 ARTHEON SAB ELECTRONICS LIMITED S 140000 10.20
17/4/2008 509026 ARTHEON LUSAKA PROPERTIES PVT LTD S 35000 10.20
17/4/2008 509026 ARTHEON SAVITRI DEVI JIWARAJKA S 42000 10.20
17/4/2008 530355 ASIAN OILFIE M S SUNDARAM MF CAPEX OPPO DIV B 53108 200.37
17/4/2008 530355 ASIAN OILFIE AAP INVESTMENTS S 100000 201.60
17/4/2008 512332 BIRLA CAP AYODHYAPATI INVESTMENT PVT LTD S 129728 7.86
17/4/2008 500085 CHAMBAL FERTILISERS AND CHEMIC CITIGROUP MARKETS MAURITIUS PVT LTD B 2149000 64.66
17/4/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF NEWGEN INTERNATIONAL PVT. LTD. S 581321 7.69
17/4/2008 517973 DMC INTER HITECH COMPUTECH PRIVATE LTD S 34850 13.56
17/4/2008 517973 DMC INTER NEERU GOEL S 19000 13.45
17/4/2008 532022 FILAT FASH JITENDRA HARIVANSH JOSHI B 32800 34.87
17/4/2008 532318 GEMINI COMMU AYODHYAPATI INVESTMENT PVT LTD B 138060 200.70
17/4/2008 532318 GEMINI COMMU AYODHYAPATI INVESTMENT PVT LTD S 138060 202.50
17/4/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV JATIN SHANTILAL SHAH B 75000 15.37
17/4/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV HEMANT MADHUSUDAN SHETH S 74729 15.37
17/4/2008 523405 JM FINANCIAL SWISS FINANCE CORPORATION MAURITIUS LIMITED B 165630 1500.00
17/4/2008 523405 JM FINANCIAL CITIGROUP GLOBAL MKTS MAURITIUS PRIVATE LTD S 175180 1500.47
17/4/2008 526409 KALPANA INDU CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PVT. LTD S 45000 115.80
17/4/2008 532283 KASHYAP TEC OM EDUCATION IT PVT LTD B 2311201 2.04
17/4/2008 532283 KASHYAP TEC OMEDUCATION IT PVT LTD S 2470215 2.07
17/4/2008 531194 MEWAR INDUS SANDHYA AGARWALA B 19050 9.58
17/4/2008 531194 MEWAR INDUS SARIKA SHARMA S 19050 9.55
17/4/2008 531834 NATURA HUE C OMEDUCATION IT PVT LTD B 70000 10.90
17/4/2008 531834 NATURA HUE C RAITHATHATHA PRADIP R S 69650 10.90
17/4/2008 532529 NDTV LTD. GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD B 5106518 435.06
17/4/2008 532529 NDTV LTD. RADHIKA ROY S 2503259 435.10
17/4/2008 532529 NDTV LTD. PRANNOY ROY S 2410417 435.10
17/4/2008 524372 ORCHID CHEM CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTD B 379462 304.08
17/4/2008 524372 ORCHID CHEM R M SHARES TRADING PVT LTD B 494886 301.58
17/4/2008 524372 ORCHID CHEM SAM GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD. B 340662 304.32
17/4/2008 524372 ORCHID CHEM LATIN MANHARLAL SEC PVT LTD B 584992 304.31
17/4/2008 524372 ORCHID CHEM LATIN MANHARLAL SEC PVT LTD S 584893 304.53
17/4/2008 524372 ORCHID CHEM CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTD S 379462 305.08
17/4/2008 524372 ORCHID CHEM R M SHARES TRADING PVT LTD S 495386 302.25
17/4/2008 524372 ORCHID CHEM SAM GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD. S 339615 304.75
17/4/2008 532606 PAREKH ALUM ALOSHA VANIJYA PVT LTD S 39979 185.00
17/4/2008 507894 SCHABLONA IN ASHARAM TRADERS PVT LTD S 20000 21.93
17/4/2008 500389 SILVERLINE T BSMA LTD S 260000 31.70
17/4/2008 532961 SITA SHREE SHAILESH M. NISSAR B 123522 50.13
17/4/2008 532961 SITA SHREE R M SHARES TRADING PVT LTD B 126799 49.78
17/4/2008 532961 SITA SHREE N D NISSAR B 290445 49.93
17/4/2008 532961 SITA SHREE KHATRI ENTERPRISE B 172560 52.39
17/4/2008 532961 SITA SHREE SHAILESH M. NISSAR S 121522 50.22
17/4/2008 532961 SITA SHREE R M SHARES TRADING PVT LTD S 126799 49.76
17/4/2008 532961 SITA SHREE N D NISSAR S 290445 49.93
17/4/2008 519228 TEMPT.FOODS ABN AMRO BANK N.V. LONDON B 750000 184.88
17/4/2008 519228 TEMPT.FOODS ALOSHA VANIJYA PVT LTD S 300000 185.00
17/4/2008 519228 TEMPT.FOODS ALOSHA VANIJYA PVT LIMITED S 200000 185.00

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Apr 17 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
17-APR-2008,CHAMBLFERT,Chambal Fertilizers Ltd.,CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PVT LTD,BUY,4900000,64.32,-
17-APR-2008,DCB,Development Credit Bank L,P R B SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD,BUY,1244775,112.83,-
17-APR-2008,DSKULKARNI,DS Kulkarni Dev. Ltd.,MAGNA UMBRELLA FUND,BUY,220940,164.00,-
17-APR-2008,MANGLMCEM,Mangalam Cement Ltd,MAGNA UMBRELLA FUND,BUY,357136,135.50,-
17-APR-2008,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,COPTHALL MAURITIUS INVESTMENT LTD,BUY,6257000,44.39,-
17-APR-2008,NDTV,New Delhi Television Limi,FID FUNDS MAURITIUS LIMITED,BUY,2700000,429.96,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,A TO Z STOCK TRADE PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,909778,301.01,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD,BUY,394501,293.44,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTD,BUY,392039,305.03,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,DINESH MUNJAL,BUY,348087,297.68,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,DINKAR SETHIA HUF,BUY,429400,302.84,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,DYNAMIC EQUITIES PVT. LTD.,BUY,359327,300.68,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,EAST INDIA SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,476409,295.32,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,KAUSHIK SHAH SHARES & SECURITIES PVT LTD,BUY,335834,304.71,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,LATIN MANHARLAL SECURITIES PVT. LTD.,BUY,483567,305.23,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,P R B SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD,BUY,1131667,304.65,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,BUY,1005522,301.67,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,R.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,BUY,538337,300.99,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,SANJAY BHANWARLAL JAIN,BUY,638590,302.71,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,SURESH U.TREVADIA,BUY,699694,301.23,-
17-APR-2008,RSSOFTWARE,R. S. Software (I) Ltd.,RAHUL DOSHI,BUY,26607,34.75,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD,BUY,370755,49.54,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.,BUY,141993,49.61,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,MAHESH CHAND MITTAL,BUY,80000,49.94,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,MANISH VRAJLAL SARVAIYA,BUY,315363,50.95,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,NIMIT JAYENDRA SHAH,BUY,115860,50.40,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,NISSAR BROTHERS,BUY,204443,49.32,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,PASHUPATI CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.,BUY,159776,49.38,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,BUY,215721,50.95,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,RUPESH KIRIT DALAL,BUY,168367,50.29,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,SANJAY BHANWARLAL JAIN,BUY,123078,50.95,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,SHRIRAM TRADING CO,BUY,237720,51.97,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,SUNIL PANDURANG MANTRI,BUY,129270,49.55,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,269370,49.86,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,VAJSHAH SHARES & CONSULTANCY P,BUY,125837,50.00,-
17-APR-2008,VISAKAIND,Visaka Industries Ltd.,ARUDRA ROOFINGS LTD,BUY,250000,52.00,-
17-APR-2008,DCB,Development Credit Bank L,P R B SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD,SELL,1244775,112.79,-
17-APR-2008,DSKULKARNI,DS Kulkarni Dev. Ltd.,CHARLEMAGNE CAPITAL (IOM) LIMITED,SELL,220940,164.00,-
17-APR-2008,INFOMEDIA,Infomedia India Limited,PRAKASH KULATHU IYER,SELL,100000,229.40,-
17-APR-2008,MANGLMCEM,Mangalam Cement Ltd,CHARLEMAGNE CAPITAL (IOM) LIMITED,SELL,357136,135.50,-
17-APR-2008,NDTV,New Delhi Television Limi,DEUTSCHE TRUSTEE SERVICES PVT LTD A/C DWS MONEY PLUS ADVANTA,SELL,493236,430.00,-
17-APR-2008,NDTV,New Delhi Television Limi,RELIANCE CAPITAL TRUSTEE CO. LTD A/C RELIANCE GROWTH FUND,SELL,1818597,430.00,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,A TO Z STOCK TRADE PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,909777,301.19,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD,SELL,394501,293.49,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTD,SELL,392039,305.29,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPORE) LIMITED A/C CREDIT SUISSE (SINGAPO,SELL,1115000,283.94,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,DINESH MUNJAL,SELL,348087,298.61,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,DINKAR SETHIA HUF,SELL,429400,303.34,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,DYNAMIC EQUITIES PVT. LTD.,SELL,361327,306.89,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,EAST INDIA SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,473906,297.69,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,KAUSHIK SHAH SHARES & SECURITIES PVT LTD,SELL,336334,305.37,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,LATIN MANHARLAL SECURITIES PVT. LTD.,SELL,483567,305.57,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,P R B SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD,SELL,1131667,304.89,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,SELL,1005522,302.84,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,R.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,SELL,538337,300.90,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,SANJAY BHANWARLAL JAIN,SELL,638590,303.02,-
17-APR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,SURESH U.TREVADIA,SELL,699736,301.36,-
17-APR-2008,RSSOFTWARE,R. S. Software (I) Ltd.,RAHUL DOSHI,SELL,51613,34.66,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD,SELL,370755,49.61,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.,SELL,142043,49.86,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,MAHESH CHAND MITTAL,SELL,122500,50.73,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,MANISH VRAJLAL SARVAIYA,SELL,315363,51.01,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,NIMIT JAYENDRA SHAH,SELL,115860,50.11,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,NISSAR BROTHERS,SELL,204443,49.31,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,PASHUPATI CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.,SELL,159776,49.80,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,SELL,215721,50.68,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,RUPESH KIRIT DALAL,SELL,168367,50.21,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,SANJAY BHANWARLAL JAIN,SELL,123078,50.89,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,SUNIL PANDURANG MANTRI,SELL,130749,49.43,-
17-APR-2008,SITASHREE,Sita Shree Food Products,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,269370,49.91,-
17-APR-2008,VISAKAIND,Visaka Industries Ltd.,CHARLEMAGNE CAPITAL (IOM) LIMITED A/C MAGNA INDIA,SELL,300000,52.00,-

Key Q4 results to dictate trend

The earnings season has started on a positive note. The market surged last week after Infosys gave a decent guidance for the year ending March 2009 on 15 April 2008. However, high inflation and rising crude oil is a cause for concern for the market in the near term. On the global front, good results/guidance from Intel Corp, JPMorgan Chase & Co and other blue chips eased worries that weak US economy would sap corporate profits.

Q4 March 2008 results of India Inc. will dictate the near term trend on the bourses. Analysts will be closely watching what the company managements have to say about the outlook for the year ending March 2009 (FY 2009). Analysts will also scrutinize disclosures that companies may make regarding foreign exchange derivatives products that they have bought on the advice of their bankers. A steep decline in the value of the US dollar against the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc hit Indian corporates which have used these two currencies (Yen and Franc) extensively to swap their rupee denominated debt.

Morgan Stanley expects 23% growth in net earnings of 104 out of 108 firms in its Indian coverage universe in Q4 March 2008 over Q4 March 2007.

Q4 March 2008 results of Sensex heavyweights like Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services, Satyam Computer Services, Grasim Industries, Reliance Industries, Maruti Suzuki India, HDFC Bank and Bharti Airtel are due next week.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries is expected to report strong Q4 March 2008 results boosted by robust refining margins.

Infosys has given guidance of a between 16.3% to 18.3% growth in earnings per share (EPS) to between Rs 92.32 to Rs 93.92 for the year ending March 2009 over the year ending March 2008. It has given guidance of a between 19.2% to 21.1% growth in revenue to between Rs 19894 crore to Rs 20214 crore for the year ending March 2009 over the year ending March 2008.

As per US GAAP, Infosys has given guidance of a 16.7% to 18.7% growth in earnings per American Depository Shares at between $2.31 to $2.35 for the year ending March 2009 over the year ending March 2008. It has given guidance of a between 19% to 21% growth in revenue as per US GAAP to between $4.97 billion to $5.05 billion for the year ending March 2009 over the year ending March 2008.

India's monsoon rains are likely to be near normal this year, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted on Wednesday, 16 April 2008, promising robust harvests which could bolster growth in the country and soothe global food worries.

Earth sciences minister Kapil Sibal said this year's forecast should be more reliable as the IMD was using a combination of statistical and dynamic models, unlike earlier when only statistical models were applied.

In the calendar year so far, FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 11720.90 crore (till 15 April 2008), to offset their huge losses in the US sub-prime mortgage market.

Meanwhile, a weaker dollar and a surprise drawdown in US crude inventories sent Nymex crude futures to a new intraday record of $115.07 per barrel on Wednesday, 16 April 2008.

The wholesale price index rose 7.14% in the 12 months to 5 April 2008. This was slower than the previous week's annual rise of 7.41%. government data showed on Friday, 17 April 2008.

Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi), had said short selling and securities lending and borrowing will be operationalised from 21 April 2008.

The market remains closed on Friday, 18 April 2008, on account of Mahavir Jayanti.

Infy guidance, normal monsoon forecast drive 674 points Sensex surge

Quarterly result season kickstarted with Infosys’ Q4 result announcement on 15 April 2008. IT socks were in the limelight after Infosys’ decent guidance for FY 2009. Sensex gained in all the three trading sessions in the week. It was a truncated trading week. The market remained closed on Monday, 14 April 2008 on account of Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar Jayanti. It remains closed on Friday,18 April 2008 on account of Mahavir Jayanti.

The BSE Sensex surged 673.56 points or 4.26% to 16,481.20 in the week ended Thursday 17 April 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 180.6 points or 3.77% to 4,958.40.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 313.17 points or 4.8% to 6,836.39 in the week. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 449.93 points or 5.56% to 8,531.36.

Foreign institutional investors (FII)’ outflow in April 2008 totaled Rs 288.10 crore (till 15 April 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 11,720.90 crore (till 15 April 2008). Mutual funds (MF)s were net buyers of shares worth Rs 5 crore in this month, till 16 April 2008.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 346.02 points or 2.19% at 16,153.66 on Tuesday 15 April 2008. The battered stock market found a solace in IT bellwether Infosys Technologies' good future outlook. That triggered a broad-based rally in IT stocks. Healthcare and oil & gas stocks marched ahead as well. Ranbaxy Laboratories was the top gainer from the Sensex pack.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 90.53 points or 0.56% at 16,244.19 on Wednesday, 16 April 2008. The market, after trading in a narrow range through the day, eased from early highs, yet ended with decent gain. It was a rewarding session for IT stocks for second consecutive day after IT bellwether Infosys on Tuesday, 15 April 2008, gave a confident medium-term outlook. Small- and mid-cap stocks extended gains from the previous session. Positive cues from the global markets boosted domestic bourses.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 237.01 points or 1.46% at 16,481.20 on Thursday, 17 April 2008. Good buying interest helped market end on a strong note. IT and banking stocks were in demand throughout the trading session. Initial forecast of a near-normal monsoon this year by the Indian Meteorological Department boosted market sentiments today besides positive global cues.

IT stocks galloped. India’s second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys gained 17.15% to Rs 1666.45 in the week. The company reported 1.46% rise in net profit to Rs 1249 crore on a 6.34% growth in revenue to Rs 4542 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q3 December 2007 on 15 April 2008.

Infosys' operating profit rose 6.17% to Rs 1478 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q3 December 2007. The core operating profit margin was 32.54%, slightly lower than 32.59% in Q3 December 2007.

Infosys has given guidance of a between 16.3% to 18.3% growth in earnings per share (EPS) to between Rs 92.32 to Rs 93.92 for the year ending March 2009 over the year ending March 2008. It has given guidance of a between 19.2% to 21.1% growth in revenue to between Rs 19894 crore to Rs 20214 crore for the year ending March 2009 over the year ending March 2008.

As per US GAAP, Infosys has given guidance of a 16.7% to 18.7% growth in earnings per American Depository Shares at between $2.31 to $2.35 for the year ending March 2009 over the year ending March 2008. It has given guidance of a between 19% to 21% growth in revenue as per US GAAP to between $4.97 billion to $5.05 billion for the year ending March 2009 over the year ending March 2008.

Tata Consultancy Services (up 10.21% to Rs 1000.90), Satyam Computer Services (up 8.25% to Rs 468.95) and Wipro (up 13.01% to Rs 459.20) edged higher in the week.

India’s largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro remained flat at Rs 2776.20 in the week. On 16 April 2008, L&T signed an agreement with Tamil Nadu Government to set up an integrated shipyard complex with a total investment of about Rs 3000 crore in north Chennai.

India’s largest pharma company in terms of sales Ranbaxy Laboratories jumped 8.17% to Rs 479.80. On 15 April 2008, UK's second largest drugmaker, AstraZeneca Plc signed a settlement agreement in its Nexium patent infringement litigation against Ranbaxy. AstraZeneca said that under the deal Ranbaxy would be allowed to start selling a cheap, copycat version of Nexium on 27 May, 2014.

Diversified firm Grasim Industries gained 1.48% to Rs 2568.60. The company said on 15 April 2008 it has increased its stake from 25% to 45% in AV Cell Inc, a joint venture company in Canada for a total consideration of around Canadian dollar 6 million.

ICICI Bank (up 5.92% to Rs 835.20), State Bank of India (up 0.89% to Rs 1682.85), Reliance Industries (up 3.4% to Rs 2636.95) edged higher in the week.

The Indian crude oil basket hit a record high of $104.63 per barrel on Monday, 14 April 2008. The price has averaged $101.23 per barrel in this month so far compared with $99.76 per barrel in March 2008.

The wholesale price index rose 7.14% in the 12 months to 5 April 2008. This was slower than the previous week's annual rise of 7.41%.

The annual monsoon rains in India are likely to be near normal at 96%-104% of the long-term average in 2008, Science Minister Kapil Sibal said on Wednesday, 16 April 2008. According to a recent forecast by Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate & Society (IRI), rains will be good in the first half of the four-month monsoon season in India. The monsoon rains usually fall from June to September.

Sensex up 1672 points from recent low

Good buying interest helped market end on a strong note. IT and banking stocks were in demand throughout the trading session. Realty and metal stocks picked up momentum in the last hour of trade. Banking stocks rose after inflation eased from more than three years' high hit in late March 2008.

Initial forecast of a near-normal monsoon this year by the Indian Meteorological Department boosted market sentiments today besides positive global cues.

The wholesale price index rose 7.14% in the 12 months to 5 April 2008, as per latest data. This was slower than the previous week's annual rise of 7.41%.

European markets that opened after Indian market were trading higher. Key indices in UK, France and Germany were up 0.04% to 0.67%.

Asian markets, which opened before Indian market, were mostly in green. Key indices in Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and Hong Kong were up 0.27% to 1.92%. However, China's Shanghai Composite was down 2.09%.

US stocks vaulted higher on Wednesday, 16 April 2008, after Intel Corp, JPMorgan Chase & Co and other blue chips reported earnings that reassured investors worried that a weak economy would sap corporate profits.

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 237.01 points or 1.46% at 16,481.20. The Sensex gained 326.38 points at day's high of 16,570.57, hit in the early afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was up 71.1 points or 1.45% at 4958.40. Nifty April 2008 futures were at 4963, at a premium of 4.6 points as compared to spot closing of 4958.40.

Sensex has gained 1671.71 points or 11.28% from a recent low of 14,809.49 on 17 March 2008. It is off 4725.57 points or 22.28% from a record high of 21206.77 hit on 10 January 2008.

As per provisional data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 597.53 crore today. Domestic funds sold shares worth a net Rs 59.87 crore.

The market remains closed tomorrow, 18 April 2008, on account of Mahavir Jayanti.

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 2.05% at 6,836.55 and the BSE Small-Cap index was up 2.16% at 8,531.36. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was strong: on BSE, 2025 stocks gained, 703 stocks declined and 51 stocks were unchanged.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 6683 crore as against Rs 6,800.65 on Wednesday, 16 April 2008. NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 42461.28 crore, which was higher than Rs 39646.97 crore on Wednesday, 16 April 2008.

Top Sensex gainers were, HDFC Bank (up 6.95% at Rs 1396.40), Hindalco Industries (up 5.58% at Rs 186.35), Housing Development Finance Corporation (up 4.32% at Rs 2487.30), DLF (up 4.28% at Rs 648.60) and Tata Steel (up 3.55% at Rs 715.20).

Top Sensex losers were, Hindustan Unilever (down 3.59% at Rs 232.40), ACC (down 0.85% at Rs 799.40), Larsen & Toubro (down 0.80% at Rs 2776.20), Reliance Energy (down 0.74% at Rs 1335.25), and ONGC (down 0.14% at Rs 1015.95).

The BSE Bankex was outperformed the Sensex, rising 3.13% to 8,295.84. Oriental Bank of Commerce (up 6.83% at Rs 192.35), Bank of India (up 6.42% at Rs 320.85), Centurion Bank of Punjab (up 5.63% at Rs 45.05), Axis Bank (up 4.82% at Rs 824.75), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 1.08% at Rs 718.50) and State Bank of India (up 1.01% at Rs 1682.85), surged.

India’s largest private sector bank by assets ICICI Bank was up 2.38% at Rs 835.20.

The BSE IT index outperformed the Sensex, gaining 3.60% to 4,150.90. i-Flex Solutions (up 12.60% at Rs 1289.80), Hcl Technologies (up 3.36% at Rs 269.25), Satyam Computer (up 3.28% at Rs 468.95), TCS (up 2.71% at Rs 100.90) and Wipro (up 2.65% at Rs 459.20), flared up.

India’s second largest software exporter by sales Infosys Technologies gained 4.16% at Rs 1666.45. The stocks is on a rise since Tuesday, 15 April 2008, when the company reported 1.46% rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 1249 crore on a 6.34% growth in revenue to Rs 4542 crore in Q4 March 2008 over Q3 December 2007. The stock advanced 17.15% in three session from Rs 1,422.45 on Friday, 11 April 2008.

The BSE Oil & Gas index underperformed the Sensex, sliding 0.10% to 11,411.03. Gail India (down 1.83% at Rs 446.30), Indian Oil Corporation (down 0.89% at Rs 452.50), Essar Oil (down 0.30% at Rs 262.55), and BPCL (down 0.10% at Rs 400.80), slipped.

India’s largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries fell 0.30% at Rs 2636.95.

Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals clocked the highest turnover of Rs 663.21 crore on BSE. NDTV (Rs 240.30 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs 216.82 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 139.25 crore) and Reliance Natural Resources (Rs 134.24 crore), were the other turnover toppers on BSE in that order.

Ispat Industries reported the highest volume of 2.75 crore shares on BSE. Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (2.19 crore shares), Nagarjuna Fertiliser & Chemicals (2.05 crore shares), Tata Teleservices (Maharastra) (1.81 crore shares) and Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals (1.32 crore shares), were the other volume toppers on BSE in that order.

Tea stocks surged after tea prices in Kenya, one of the biggest exporters of black tea, rose on fears that insufficient rain would cut production. McLeod Russel (up 20% at Rs 96.95), Jay Shree Tea (up 13.43% at Rs 133.05), Harrisons Malayalam (up 15.61% at Rs 83.80), Warren Tea (up 10% at Rs 79.75) and Tezpore Tea & Exports (up 5% at Rs 61.65), surged.

Steel and real estate firm Shree Precoated Steels rose 5% to Rs 190.95 on reports it planned to raise Rs 1000 crore from private equity funds.

Real estate firm Parsvnath Developers rose 2.71% at Rs 212.45 on reports the firm sold a 30% stake in a Mumbai project to foreign funds for Rs 186 crore.

Telecom provider Tata Teleservices (Maharastra) rose 14.58% at Rs 33.80 on reports the firm is planning to sell 15-30% stake to private equity (PE) investors for raising over $1 billion. The funds would be employed for the company's expansion in both CDMA and the upcoming GSM services.

Wind turbines maker Indowind Energy rose 6.18% at Rs 85.90 after it reported net profit of Rs 0.50 crore on sales of Rs 0.55 crore in the quarter ended March 2008.

Software firm Nucleus Software Exports advanced 5.62% at Rs 265.05 after the company said Reem Finance, one of the leading non banking financial institutions headquartered in Abu Dhabi has selected its flagship product FinnOne.

Gas distributor Petronet LNG gained 3.65% to Rs 79.60 after the company reported 51.52% increase in net profit to Rs 474.65 crore on 19.17% rise in total income to Rs 6608.89 crore in the year ended March 2008 over the year ended March 2007.

Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Petroleum rose 1.11% at Rs 186.90 after the company said its 5.80 lakh barrel a day export-oriented refinery at Jamnagar, Gujarat would be completed ahead of its schedule start of December 2008.

Chennai-based BPO Dhanus Technologies gained 0.44% to Rs 240.10 after the company said it has acquired 60% stake in Hyderabad based information technology firm, Sreeven Infocom.

Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals, which is India's largest producer of caustic soda by capacity, slipped 1.08% at Rs 192, off day's high of Rs 203. The firm signed an agreement with Dow Europe GmbH, a unit of Dow Chemical Co, to set up a joint venture company for manufacture of two lakh tonnes per annum of chlorinated organics.

India's monsoon rains are likely to be near normal this year, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasted on Wednesday, 16 April 2008, promising robust harvests which could bolster growth in the country and soothe global food worries.

Earth sciences minister Kapil Sibal said this year's forecast should be more reliable as the IMD was using a combination of statistical and dynamic models, unlike earlier when only statistical models were applied.

IMD will update its prediction in June 2008 when it makes the second-stage forecasts. Separate forecasts for July 2008 rainfall (crucial for Kharif crop) and seasonal rainfall over the country's four geographic regions will also come in June 2008.

Wall Street shares surged to end at their highs for the day yesterday, 16 April 2008, as investors cheered the latest round of earnings, which included Intel and JP Morgan. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 256.80 points or 2.08% to 12,619.27, the broader S&P 500 index advanced 30.28 points or 2.27% to 1,364.71 and the Nasdaq Composite index climbed 64.07 points or 2.80% to 2,350.11.