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Friday, November 14, 2008
BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 14 2008
Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
14/11/2008 532727 ADHUNIK MET APIS GLOBAL DEEP VALUE OFFSHORE LTD B 784350 38.65
14/11/2008 532727 ADHUNIK MET APIS CAPITAL QP LP B 641022 38.65
14/11/2008 532727 ADHUNIK MET APIS CAPITAL LP B 503731 38.65
14/11/2008 532727 ADHUNIK MET APIS OFFSHORE CAPITAL LTD B 2562387 38.65
14/11/2008 532727 ADHUNIK MET APIS GLOBAL DEEP VALUE LP B 515073 38.65
14/11/2008 532727 ADHUNIK MET GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 5006563 38.65
14/11/2008 532984 ENSO SECUT CORPORATE STRATEGIES PVT LTD S 100000 20.37
14/11/2008 532787 ESS DEE ALUM APIS GLOBAL DEEP VALUE OFFSHORE LTD B 153758 141.00
14/11/2008 532787 ESS DEE ALUM APIS OFFSHORE CAPITAL LTD B 479244 141.00
14/11/2008 532787 ESS DEE ALUM GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 948296 141.00
14/11/2008 530077 FRESHTROP FR APIS GLOBAL DEEP VALUE OFFSHORE LTD B 263573 17.75
14/11/2008 530077 FRESHTROP FR APIS GLOBAL DEEP VALUE LP B 181609 17.75
14/11/2008 530077 FRESHTROP FR GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 445182 17.75
14/11/2008 513059 G.S. AUTO RAJU GHANSHAYMDAS SHAH B 59500 27.79
14/11/2008 509488 GRAPHIT INDI APIS CAPITAL QP LP B 812703 36.55
14/11/2008 509488 GRAPHIT INDI APIS OFFSHORE CAPITAL LTD B 3255728 36.55
14/11/2008 509488 GRAPHIT INDI GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 4722642 36.55
14/11/2008 509631 HEG LIMITED* GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 256103 137.50
14/11/2008 530955 KAILASH FICO DASH PHARMACEUTICALS PVT LTD B 183200 23.55
14/11/2008 530955 KAILASH FICO GIRIRAJ SHARES PVT LIMITED B 104784 23.55
14/11/2008 517569 KEI INDUSTRI APIS GLOBAL DEEP VALUE OFFSHORE LTD B 1535260 16.55
14/11/2008 517569 KEI INDUSTRI APIS GLOBAL DEEP VALUE LP B 1008174 16.55
14/11/2008 517569 KEI INDUSTRI GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 2543434 16.55
14/11/2008 513269 MAN INDUST I APIS OFFSHORE CAPOTAL LTD B 860900 31.60
14/11/2008 513269 MAN INDUST I GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 1244830 31.60
14/11/2008 530047 RAI SH REK M C S BUILDWELL PVT LTD S 22002 87.49
14/11/2008 531646 RFL INTERNAT GEETA NARENDRA SHAH S 49389 0.70
14/11/2008 521206 SAMTEX FASHI CAMEL FOODS PVT LTD. B 50000 6.88
14/11/2008 521206 SAMTEX FASHI MEGA RESOURCES LTD S 90880 6.85
14/11/2008 531898 SANGUINE MD FORSEE FINANCIAL AND CONSULTANCY SERVICES PVT LTD S 204605 8.68
14/11/2008 522229 TANEJ AERO A ACTRADING B 151041 30.35
14/11/2008 522229 TANEJ AERO A TREE LINE ASIA MASTER FUND SINGAPORE PTE LTD S 1985000 28.04
14/11/2008 504212 UNIV CABLE ANTRIKSH VYAPAR PVT LTD B 570000 50.88
14/11/2008 504212 UNIV CABLE SUNDARAM BNP PARIBAS MUTUAL FUND S 428982 51.00
14/11/2008 532765 USHER AGRO NIRMAL NARENDRA KOTECHA B 201773 128.20
14/11/2008 532765 USHER AGRO SUPER VELOURS PVT LTD S 330913 125.32
14/11/2008 526953 VENUS REMEDS APIS GLOBAL DEEP VALUE OFFSHORE LTD B 147567 208.00
14/11/2008 526953 VENUS REMEDS APIS GLOBAL DEEP VALUE LP B 96906 208.00
14/11/2008 526953 VENUS REMEDS GOLDMAN SACHS INVESTMENTS MAURITIUS I LTD S 244473 208.00
14/11/2008 533011 VISHAL INFO REAL MARKETING PVT LTD B 59200 333.11
NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 14 2008
Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
14-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,BUY,61264,157.93,-
14-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,CPR CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,BUY,54144,159.29,-
14-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,JINDAL WORLDWIDE LTD,BUY,60284,160.97,-
14-NOV-2008,APOLLOHOSP,Apollo Hospitals Ltd,CLSA (MAURITIUS) LIMITED,BUY,4275000,419.99,-
14-NOV-2008,CONSOFINVT,Consolidated Finvest & Ho,AAKRITI JINDAL,BUY,345403,36.13,-
14-NOV-2008,CONSOFINVT,Consolidated Finvest & Ho,FOREX FINANCE LIMITED,BUY,50,38.00,-
14-NOV-2008,CREWBOS,Crew B.O.S. Products Limi,ASHISH DHAWAN,BUY,314000,24.00,-
14-NOV-2008,CREWBOS,Crew B.O.S. Products Limi,ELAN TRADE POST PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,313000,23.99,-
14-NOV-2008,ECEIND,ECE Industries Limited,INDO ASIAN SECURITIES PVT LTD,BUY,136638,101.24,-
14-NOV-2008,ECEIND,ECE Industries Limited,PRAKASH KUMAR MOHTA,BUY,126300,103.55,-
14-NOV-2008,GOLDENTOBC,Golden Tobacco Limited,DNYANESHWAR TRADING AND INVESTMENTS PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,124578,52.34,-
14-NOV-2008,GRABALALK,Grabal Alok Impex Limited,JIWRAJKA INVESTMENT PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,201000,64.24,-
14-NOV-2008,HCL-INSYS,HCL Infosystems Ltd,J P M S L A/c Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd,BUY,1579699,63.50,-
14-NOV-2008,HDIL,Housing Development and I,J P M S L A/c Copthall Mauritius Investment Ltd,BUY,2975608,116.17,-
14-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,SELL,61264,156.20,-
14-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,CPR CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,SELL,54144,159.35,-
14-NOV-2008,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,JINDAL WORLDWIDE LTD,SELL,60284,156.97,-
14-NOV-2008,APOLLOHOSP,Apollo Hospitals Ltd,35-CAPITAL GROUP A/C SMALL CAP WORLD FND INC - 000035,SELL,3275000,420.00,-
14-NOV-2008,APOLLOHOSP,Apollo Hospitals Ltd,75CAPITAL GROUP-AMERICAN FUNDS INS SERIES GLOBALSMALL CAP FU,SELL,1000000,420.00,-
14-NOV-2008,CONSOFINVT,Consolidated Finvest & Ho,FOREX FINANCE LIMITED,SELL,250050,36.00,-
14-NOV-2008,CREWBOS,Crew B.O.S. Products Limi,ARISAIG INDIA FUND LTD,SELL,627194,23.98,-
14-NOV-2008,ECEIND,ECE Industries Limited,INDO ASIAN SECURITIES PVT LTD,SELL,136359,103.66,-
14-NOV-2008,ECEIND,ECE Industries Limited,MANAV INVESTMENT TRADING CO. PVT. LTD.,SELL,131686,101.11,-
14-NOV-2008,GOLDENTOBC,Golden Tobacco Limited,MONEY MATTERS ADVISORY SERVICES LTD ,SELL,124578,52.34,-
14-NOV-2008,GVKPIL,GVK Power & Infrastructur,SUNDARAM BNP PARIBAS ENERGY OPPURTUNITY FUND,SELL,16825815,17.21,-
14-NOV-2008,HCL-INSYS,HCL Infosystems Ltd,Fidelity Funds - Emerging Markets,SELL,1922184,64.47,-
14-NOV-2008,MAHSCOOTER,Maharashtra Scooters Ltd,MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT INC. A/C MOR,SELL,80473,61.60,-
Post Session Commentary - Nov 14 2008
Market ended in red terrain on sustained profit booking. Negative attitude was influenced by lower US index futures that offset expectations of a further cut in interest rates and gains in Asian stocks along with this political uncertainty ahead of state election also weighed on sentiments. Polling for assembly elections in Chhattisgarh began on 14 November 2008.The BSE Sensex ended below 9,400 level and NSE Nifty dropped below 2,850. Indian market opened on the pleasant note tracking the favorable global cues on anticipation of coordinated rescue effort from the G-20 meeting during the weekend along with decline in inflation to single digit. However, market was not able to hold the momentum and started losing ground due to weakness in key stocks. Further, market continued to extend its losses with bit of volatility till end, though tried to recover during afternoon session. From the sectoral front, Heavy selling was witnessed from the Capital Goods, Consumer Durables, Auto, Metal, Power and IT baskets. Midcap and Small cap stocks were also under pressure. However only FMCG index witnessed some buying.
Among the Sensex pack 23 stocks ended in red territory while 7 stock ended in green territory. The market breadth was negative as 1594 stocks closed in green while 924 stocks closed in red and 74 stocks remained unchanged.
The BSE Sensex closed lower by 150.91 points at 9,385.42 and NSE Nifty ended down by 38.10 points at 2,810.35. The BSE Mid Caps closed with losses of 65.19 points at 3,216.08 and Small Cap ended down by 48.33 points 3,765.05. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,836.11 and intraday low of 9,267.49.
Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are ACC Ltd (8.95%), Tata Motors (8.49%), Tata Steel (6.40%), HDFC (4.86%), JP Associates (4.67%), Reliance Infra (4.46%), L&T Ltd (4.36%), BHEL (4.26%), Sterlite Industries (4.16%), MAruti Suzuki (4.15%), M&M Ltd (3.36%) and Infosys Tech (3.28%).
Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Bharti Airtel (2.99%), Tata Power (2.02%), Reliance Communication Ltd (1.88%), HDFC Bank Ltd (0.37%) HUL (0.30%), ITC Ltd (0.09%) and Hindalco (0.09%).
The BSE Capital Goods index dropped by (4.22%) or 306.21 points to close at 6,951.32. Losers are Everest Kanto (10.97%), Crompton Greaves (9.18%), Praj Industries (7.34%), Reliance Industrial Infra (5.62%), Thermax Ltd (5.39%) and Punj Lloyd (5.01%).
The Auto index ended down by (4.04%) or 102.58 points at 2,439.61 as Tata Motors (8.49%), Boch Ltd (6.80%), Amtek Auto (5.21%), Exide Industreis (4.27%), MAruti Suzuki (4.15%) and Cummins Indi (3.88%) in negative territory.
The BSE Metal index ended lower by (3.34%) or 168.49 points at 4,873.40. Major losers are Jai corp Ltd (19.21%), Tata Steel (6.40%), JSW Steel (6.10%), Ispat Indus (5.80%), Gujarat NRE C (4.50%) and Steel Authority (4.31%).
The BSE Consumer Durables index lost (3.12%) or 62.51 points to close at 1,940.40. Major losers are Gitanjali GE (8.53%), Videocon Ind (3.59%), Videocon Ind (3.42%), Reliance (7.37%) and Blue Star L (0.54%).
The BSE Power index lost (2.66%) or 45.62 points to close at 1,670.22. Losers are Lanco Infra (11.94%), GVK Power (10.82%), Crompton Greaves (9.18%), GMR Infra (6.70%), Suzlon Energy (4.63%) and Reliance Infra (4.46%).
The BSE FMCG index ended higher by (0.07%) or 1.34 points to 1,906.68 as United Spr (1.32%), Tata Tea Ltd (0.91%), Colgate Palm (0.43%), Marico Ltd (0.40%), HUL (0.30%) and Dabur India (0.23%) ended in positive territory.
Panic selling halts resurgence
Panic selling in noon trades triggered a major correction after the market had witnessed gains of more than 300 points in the first half. Continuing with the buoyancy, the Sensex resumed the day with a positive gap of 264 points at 9,799. Fast moving consumer goods’ stocks buying fuelled a major rally in early trades and the index zoomed above the 9,830 mark to touch a new intra-day high of 9,836. While the market stood firm thereafter, a sudden spurt in selling activities, particularly in banking, consumer goods, auto and metal stocks dragged the index just above 9,300 level to the day's low of 9,267. The Sensex finally wrapped the session with losses of 1.58% or 151 points at 9,385, while Nifty dropped 38 points to close at 2,810.
As the market fell sharply, the market breadth was negative. Of the 2,591 stocks traded on BSE, 1,582 stocks declined, whereas 937 stocks advanced. Seventy two stocks ended unchanged. Of the 13 sectoral indices trading on BSE, 12 indices ended in the red while BSE FMCG was the only gaining sectoral index for the day ending 0.07% higher at 1,907.
Dragging the Sensex, ACC lost 8.95% at Rs418.60, Tata Motors dropped 8.49% at Rs136.95, Tata Steel fell 6.40% at Rs173.25, HDFC declined 4.86% at Rs1,558.20 and Jaiprakash Associates tumbled 4.67% at Rs73.50. Reliance Infrastructure, Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd, Sterlite Industries, Maruti, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys Technologies, ONGC, Grasim Industries and Wipro were down by nearly 2-4% each. However, Bharti Airtel advanced 2.99% at Rs650.15, Tata Power scaled up 2.02% at Rs746.40, Reliance Communications added 1.88% at Rs219.75, HDFC Bank gained 0.37% at Rs1,011.60, Hindustan Unilever, ITC and Hindalco Industries closed with marginal gains.
Consumer goods stocks declined sharply. Everest Kanto Cylinder crashed 10.97% at Rs170.90, Crompton Greaves dropped 9.18% at Rs140.90, Praj Industries lost 7.34% at Rs70.10 and Reliance Industries shed 5.62% at Rs354.45.Thermax, Punj Llyod, Suzlon Energy, Alstom Projects India slipped marginally.
Over 2.10 crore shares of GVK Power and Infrastructure changed hands on the BSE followed by Suzlon Energy (1.66 crore shares), Tata Teleservices (1.65 crore shares), Cals Refineries (95 lakh shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (79 lakh shares).
Outcome of G20 meet to set direction
The outcome of the two-day G20 meet scheduled on Friday, 14 November-Saturday 15 November 2008 in Washington will set the tone for the global markets in the week ahead. Political uncertainty ahead of state elections and uncertainty about a US Treasury plan to forgo buying bad mortgage-related investments to buy stakes in US lenders, may weight on the domestic bourses.
The market may get support at lower level on expectations of a further cut in interest rates with inflation falling to single digit. Softening inflation will enable the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to further cut interest rates to create more liquidity in a slowing economy. Lower interest rates boost stocks as they help rise in corporate bottomline by way of lower borrowing costs. RBI has already signaled an easier rate regime and cut a key short term rate earlier this month along with cuts in bank reserve ratios to free up funds for lending.
Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, declined sharply to 8.98% in the week ending 1 November 2008 from 10.72% in the previous week mainly due to sharp drop in oil prices
The investors will also keenly watch developments at the G20. The G20 political leaders in will discuss ways to protect the global economy from a repeat of the worst financial crisis in 80 years. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who left on Thursday night, 13 November 2008 for the G20 meet, is ready with his recommendation to tackle the global meltdown. Singh said International financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank should be strengthened to ensure that the fallout on developing countries is minimal. He also stressed that in a coordinated approach towards monetary and fiscal policies, India plans to work in tandem with China, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa within the G20.
The Indian economy is witnessing a slowdown after a strong growth in the past three years. An indication of the slowdown in economy and trade was a 5% fall in excise and customs collections to Rs 18664 crore in October 2008.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been pulling out their investments from India and other emerging markets to shore up resources to beat the global liquidity crunch. FII outflow reached Rs 50,432.30 crore in calendar 2008, so far, till 11 November 2008.
In what will be a crucial and last popularity test ahead of parliamentary elections due early next year, six Indian states will elect new governments in staggered elections beginning Friday, 14 November 2008. Voters from Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir in the northern tip to Christian-majority Mizoram in the northeast will see polling along with Rajasthan, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. If Congress does well, the government may use the momentum to call early elections in February 2009. A poor showing could see the government wait until April 2009 or May 2009, the end of its term.
Sensex slumps nearly 6%
Investor sentiment remained jittery on political uncertainty ahead of state elections, uncertainty about a US Treasury plan to forgo buying bad mortgage-related investments to buy stakes in US lenders and caution ahead of a meeting of G20 political leaders. Fall in India's exports for the first time in five years also weighed on the investor sentiment,
The market failed to sustain the rally witnessed at the start of the week caused by China's massive economic stimulus plan. Higher-than-expected industrial production growth in September 2008 and expectation of further cut in interest rates triggered by fall of inflation to single digit, failed to avert the slide. The BSE Sensex fell in three out of the four trading sessions in the week.
The barometer index fell 578.87 points or 5.81% to 9,385.42 in the week ended Friday, 14 November 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty dipped 162.65 points or 5.47% to 2,810.35 in the week.
The BSE Mid-Cap slipped 139.30 points or 4.15% to 3,216.08 and the BSE Small-Cap index lost 135.05 points or 3.46% to 3,766.05. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.
The barometer index BSE Sensex is down 10,901.57 points or 53.73% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 11,821.35 points or 55.74% below its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have been pulling out their investments from India and other emerging markets to shore up resources to beat the global liquidity crunch. FII outflow reached Rs 51,047.40 crore in calendar 2008, so far, till 12 November 2008.
Trading for the week began on a firm note as unabated buying in blue chips throughout the day triggered a solid rally after China's massive economic stimulus plan raised expectations that authorities elsewhere would follow suit. The BSE Sensex surged 571.87 points or 5.74%, to close at 10,536.16 on Monday, 10 November 2008. Reduction in India's economic growth forecast by global investment banking and securities firm Goldman Sachs failed to put brakes on the rally.
Key benchmark indices underperformed its global peers on Tuesday, 11 November 2008, as fall in India's exports for the first time in five years in October 2008 and worries about the global economy eclipsed optimism over China's massive $600 billion economic stimulus package. The BSE 30-share Sensex slumped 696.47 points or 6.61% to 9,839.69, in a highly volatile trade.
Key benchmark indices slumped in volatile trade on Wednesday, 12 November 2008, extending the previous day's steep losses on political uncertainty ahead of the beginning of assembly polls in five states. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 303.36 points or 3.08% to 9,536.33
Political uncertainty ahead of state elections, uncertainty about a US Treasury plan to forgo buying bad mortgage-related investments to buy stakes in US lenders and caution ahead of a meeting of G20 political leaders, pulled the market lower in what was a choppy trading session on Friday, 14 November 2008. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 150.91 points or 1.58% at 9,385.42.
India's largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries slumped 5.69% to Rs 1,148.55 in the week. As per reports on 11 November 2008, the company is unlikely to meet its previously-announced commissioning schedules for two key oil and gas projects, as depressed global fuel demand, the financial market turmoil and legal challenges to its plans force it to push back deadlines.
India's largest oil exploration firm by revenue ONGC slipped 6.48% to Rs 693.55. On Wednesday, 12 November 2008, chairman R.S. Sharma said that company will lose Rs 300 crore-Rs 400 crore annually if it followed a finance ministry directive to keep 60% of its surplus cash with state-run banks.
India's second largest IT exporter by sales, Infosys Technologies fell 3.53% to Rs 1217.90 in the week. Britain's BT Group, one of its major clients, announced cost cutting measures. On Thursday (13 November 2008), the BT group announced 10,000 job cuts and a plan to trim the cost of its pension scheme just as it posted better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and revenues.
India's second largest telecom services provider by sales Reliance Communications declined 3.68% to Rs 219.75 in the week. As per repots on 14 November 2008, the company is considering bidding for Iran's third mobile phone service license. Reliance Communications (RCom) will compete with firms from Russia, Turkey and Malaysia for the tender for which Iran will calls bids shortly, reports suggest.
Shrugging off the global financial sector crisis, GSM-based cellular services providers added a record 7.7 million mobile users in October 2008. Total GSM mobile users at the end of October 2008 stood at 241.4 million, up 3.3% from 233.7 million in September 2008.
India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro slumped 9.12% to Rs 791.50. The company's consortium on 10 November 2008 bagged a large order worth Rs 2,460 crore.
ICICI Bank (down 8.19% to Rs 395.95), HDFC Bank (down 7.17% to Rs 1,011.60), State Bank of India (down 6.34% to Rs 1,170.10), Satyam Computer Services (down 5.8% to Rs 261.65), Wipro (down 7.51% to Rs 240.90), edged lower from the Sensex pack.
India's second largest steel producer by sales Steel Authority of India lost 18.59% to Rs 68.75. As per reports on 14 November 2008 the company may miss the 2010-deadline to complete its expansion and modernisation programme to enhance production capacity from 15 million tonne to over 26 million tonne with an investment of Rs 54,000 crore.
India's second largest steel producer by sales Steel Authority of India lost 18.59% to Rs 68.75. As per reports on 14 November 2008 the company may miss the 2010-deadline to complete its expansion and modernisation programme to enhance production capacity from 15 million tonne to over 26 million tonne with an investment of Rs 54,000 crore.
Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, declined sharply to 8.98% in the week ended 1 November 2008 from 10.72% in the previous week mainly due to sharp drop in oil prices
Industrial production rose 4.8% in September 2008 much higher than a revised 1.4% growth in August 2008 government announced on Wednesday, 12 November 2008. The cumulative increase in industrial production during April-September 2008 period was 4.9% as against 9.5%, during the corresponding period last year.
The government may consider cutting fuel prices if global crude prices and the rupee stabilise, the oil minister, Murli Deora, on, 12 November 2008, said.
India's excise duty collections fell by 8.7% to Rs 9399 crore in October 2008. Customs duty collections also eased by 0.9% to 9265 crore during this period. As a result, the total customs and excise duty collections fell by 5% to Rs 18664 crore in October 2008.
Goldman Sachs on 10 November 2008, cut forecast on India's GDP growth for the year ending March 2009 (FY 2009) to 6.7% from 7.5% due to the knock-on effects of the global financial crisis. It also cut its growth projection for the year ending March 2010 (FY 2010) to 5.8% from 7% on concerns negative global financial stocks will continue to slow activities across the board.
According to the figures released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam), passenger car sales declined 6.6% to 98,900 units in October 2008 over October 2007. Sales of trucks and buses fell 35.9% to 28,027 units.
Power Secretary Anil Razdan on 10 November 2008, said the government has deferred bidding for the 4,000 megawatt power plant at Tilaiya in eastern India by a month because of the credit crisis. Nine companies had qualified to bid for the project and six to seven of them, including the Tata group, had requested the government to postpone the bidding.
Polling for assembly elections in Chhattisgarh began on Friday, 14 November 2008. Chhattisgarh is the first state out of a total of five states in which polling is being held for assembly elections. These polls are widely seen as a test of the popularity of the country's main political parties viz. the Congress and the BJP, ahead of national elections in the first half of calendar year 2009.
Sensex swings 559 points in highly volatile trade
Political uncertainty ahead of state elections, uncertainty about a US Treasury plan to forgo buying bad mortgage-related investments to buy stakes in US lenders and caution ahead of a meeting of G20 political leaders, pulled the market lower in what was a choppy trading session. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 150.91 points or 1.58%, despite expectations of further cut in interest rates triggered by inflation falling to double-digit level.
Selling by foreign funds pulled the market down. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) dumped stocks worth a net Rs 811.52 crore today, 14 November 2008, provisional data released by the stock exchanges after trading hours showed. Domestic funds sold shares worth a net Rs 15.15 crore.
Volatility was high with Sensex swinging 558.76 points in the day, moving between positive and negative zone. Volatility in US index futures caused volatility on the domestic bourses. Trading in US index futures indicated the Dow could slide 109 points at the opening bell. Earlier, there was an intraday recovery in US index futures from an initial fall.
Polling for assembly elections in Chhattisgarh began on Friday, 14 November 2008. Chhattisgarh is the first state out of a total of five states in which polling is being held for assembly elections. These polls are widely seen as a test of the popularity of the country's main political parties viz. the Congress and the BJP, ahead of national elections in the first half of calendar year 2009.
Meanwhile, softening inflation will enable the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to further cut interest rates to create more liquidity in a slowing economy. Lower interest rates boost stocks as they help rise in corporate bottomline by way of lower borrowing costs. RBI has already signaled an easier rate regime and cut a key short term rate earlier this month along with cuts in bank reserve ratios to free up funds for lending.
European shares raced higher in today, 14 November 2008, snapping a three-day losing streak, as mining shares tracked higher metals prices and banks advanced after recent declines. Key benchmark indices in UK, Germany and France were up by between 2.20% and 3.26%.
But Asian stocks pared strong early gains triggered by overnight surge in US stocks. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan were up by between 0.21% and 3.05%. However, South Korea's Seoul Composite was down 0.02%
A two-day meeting of G20 political leaders begins in Washington later in the day to discuss ways to protect the global economy from a repeat of the worst financial crisis in 80 years.
US stocks rallied on Thursday, 13 November 2008 after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touched new multiyear lows earlier in the session as bargain hunters scooped up beaten-down shares. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 552.59 points, or 6.67%, to 8,835.25, Standard & Poor's 500 Index shot up 58.97 points, or 6.92%, to 911.27 and Nasdaq Composite index surged 97.49 points, or 6.5% to 1,596.70.
US Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson said on Wednesday, 12 November 2008, his department was ditching its plan to purchase troubled assets from banks -- the centerpiece of the government's original $700-billion bailout plan -- in favor of injecting capital directly into financial institutions. Although investors had welcomed the capital infusions, they were disappointed that the government would not be taking billions of dollars in toxic assets off bank balance sheets.
The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 150.91 points or 1.58% at 9,385.42. At the day's high of 9,826.25 hit in early trade, the Sensex gained 284.92 points. The Sensex lost 268.84 points at the day's low of 9,267.49 in afternoon trade.
The S&P CNX Nifty lost 38.10 points or 1.34% to 2810.35. Nifty November 2008 futures were at 2829, a premium of 18.65 as compared to spot closing. Turnover in F&O segment slipped to Rs 41483.17 crore from Rs 49617.63 crore on Wednesday, 12 November 2008.
The market declined for a third day in a row today, 14 November 2008. The BSE Sensex has declined 1150.74 points or 10.92% in the last three trading sessions from 10536.16 on 10 November 2008. The barometer index is down 10901.57 points or 53.73% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 11821.35 points or 55.74% below its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was negative with 1587 shares declining on BSE as compared to 936 that rose. A total of 78 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Mid-cap index lost 1.99% to 3,216.08, underperforming the Sensex. The BSE small-cap index fell 1.27% to 3,765.05, outperforming the Sensex.
The total turnover on the BSE amounted to Rs 3674 crore as compared to Rs 3,690.41 crore on Wednesday, 12 November 2008.
All sectoral indices on BSE barring the BSE FMCG index, ended lower. The BSE FMCG, the BSE TecK index, the Bankex, the BSE Oil & Gas index, the BSE Healthcare and the BSE PSU index, outperformed the Sensex. The BSE Realty index, the BSE IT index, the BSE Power index, the BSE Consumer Durables, the BSE Metal, BSE auto and the BSE Capital goods underperformed the Sensex.
Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 20 slipped while the rest gained. ACC (down 8.83% to Rs 419.15), HDFC (down 4.75% to Rs 1560), and Jaiprakash Associates (down 5.06% to Rs 73.20), edged lower from the Sensex pack.
Ranbaxy (up 0.26% to Rs 215), and Tata Power (up 2.51% to Rs 750), edged higher from the Sensex pack.
Auto shares were under pressure on concerns economic downturn may impact sales. India's top truck maker by sales Tata Motors slumped 8.95% to Rs 136.25 on reports the company's Lucknow plant which produces heavy commercial vehicles is likely to be shut for another week.
Mahindra & Mahindra (down 0.65% to Rs 340), and Maruti Suzuki India (down 3.55% to Rs 540), were the other losers from the auto pack. The BSE Auto index fell 4.04%, to 2,439.61.
India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner, Reliance Industries (RIL), slipped 0.78% to Rs 1153.10 on high volumes of 40.52 lakh shares on concerns of weakening refining margins amid sluggish demand for petroleum products. The stock swung wildly in range of Rs 1088.65 and Rs 1208.
Metal shares slipped despite firm metal prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Sterlite Industries (down 3.02% to Rs 229.90), JSW Steel (down 6.02% to Rs 275), Hindustan Zinc (down 3.05% to Rs 365), and Tata Steel (down 5.67% to Rs 174.60), slipped. India's top private sector aluminium maker by sales Hindalco Industries ended unchanged at Rs 56.55. The BSE Metal index slipped 3.34% to 4,873.40.
Steel Authority of India fell 2.85% to Rs 69.80 on reports the company may miss the 2010-deadline to complete its ambitious expansion and modernisation programme to enhance production capacity from 15 million tonne to over 26 million tonne with an investment of Rs 54,000 crore.
Capital goods shares dropped on worries a slowing economy would crimp orders. The country's largest power equipment maker by sales, Bharat Heavy Electricals, lost 4.88% to Rs 1271.80. India's top engineering and construction firm L&T by sales slipped 5.03% to Rs 786. The BSE Capital Goods index slumped 4.22% to 6,951.32, and was the worst hit among BSE sectoral indices.
IT pivotals declined after Intel, the world's biggest maker of PC microprocessors with 80% of the global market, announced a sharp cut in its fourth-quarter guidance, offering further evidence that technology companies are headed for bad times. The BSE IT index slipped 2.47% to 2,567.87.
India's top software services exporter Infosys lost 3.26% to Rs 1218.15 after foreign brokerage house CLSA said the company might miss its revenue guidance in dollar terms for the December 2008 quarter on a worsening global financial crisis.
Satyam Computer Services (down 0.96% to Rs 262.25), and Wirpo (down 2.65% to Rs 241), slipped. However India's top software services exporter Tata Consultancy Services rose 0.08% to Rs 532, off day's low of Rs 523.25.
The Santa Clara-based Intel Corp slashed more than $1 billion from its sales forecast and dialed its profit expectations way back. Intel blamed a clampdown on spending for reducing demand for its chips. Intel's announcement came after trading hours in India on Wednesday, 12 November 2008.
Tech Mahindra declined 5.32% to Rs 297.85 after its key customer, the UK-based BT Group, announced it would cut 6% of its workforce by March 2009.
Realty shares declined on concerns the global credit crunch will lead to a shortage of funds and thereby impact profitability. Unitech (down 6.33% to Rs 45.90), DLF (down 1.27% to Rs 241.50) and Indiabulls Real Estate (down 3.73% to Rs 108.40), dropped. The BSE Realty index lost 1.72% to 2,011.53.
Telecom pivotals advanced reversing last two days' losses after Japan's NTT DoCoMo on Wednesday, 12 November 2008, signed an agreement to acquire a 26% stake in unlisted Tata Teleservices (TTL). India's top mobile operator by market capitalisation, Bharti Airtel rose 3.92% to Rs 656 on 8.97 lakh shares and was the top gainer from the Sensex pack.
India's second largest cellular services provider by market capitalisation Reliance Communications gained 3.28% to Rs 223. The deal between NTT DoCoMo and unlisted TTL announced the deal after trading hours on Wednesday, 12 November 2008.
Tata Teleservices Maharashtra (TTML), jumped 12.84% to Rs 20.30 after NTT DoCoMo and Tata Sons announced a 20% open offer for the shareholders of Tata Teleservices Maharashtra (TTML) at Rs 24.70 a share. Tata Sons, the holding company of the Tata Group, holds 20.7% of the capital of TTML. The unlisted TTL owns 37.65% stake of TTML.
Telecom pivotals had succumbed to selling pressure in the past two days on reports new telecom companies planning to enter the Indian market to offer 3G services may have to pay 3% of their aggregate revenues to the government.
Defensive buying helped the BSE FMCG index record 0.07% rise to 1,906.68, in an otherwise weak market. Hindustan Unilever (up 0.51% to Rs 235.85), ITC (up 0.50% to Rs 170.90), and Dabur India (up 0.88% to Rs 86), rose.
Jyothy Laboratories surged 5.53% to Rs 248 on setting 19 December 2008 as the record date for a 5-for-1 stock split.
Banking shares were mixed amid expectations that lower interest rates will boost lending growth. HDFC Bank (down 0.29% to Rs 1005), and ICICI Bank (down 0.98% to Rs 394) slipped. However India's top state-run bank in terms of net profit State Bank of India gained 0.38% to Rs 1180, recovering from an intra-day low of Rs 1156. The Bankex was down 0.62% at 5,155.76.
Bank of India (up 1.67% to Rs 277.50), Punjab National Bank (up 1.43% to Rs 471) and Union Bank of India (up 1.21% to Rs 159), rose
Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, declined sharply to 8.98% in the week ending 1 November 2008 from 10.72% in the previous week mainly due to sharp drop in oil prices. The government unveiled the inflation data on Thursday, 13 November 2008, when the stock market was closed for a public holiday.
Reliance Industries was the top traded counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 462.30 crore followed by Reliance Capital (Rs 178.80 crore), State Bank of India (Rs 163 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 139.45 crore) and Reliance Communications (Rs 124.50 crore).
GVK Power & Infrastructure led the volume toppers clocking volumes of 2.10 crore shares followed by Suzlon Energy (1.67 crore shares), Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) (1.65 crore shares), Cals Refineries (95.50 lakh shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (79.40 lakh shares).
Lupin tumbled 5.20% to Rs 577 after the US Food and Drug Aministration found 15 manufacturing deficiencies at the company's Madhya Pradesh plant. The company made the announcement before market hours today, 14 November 2008.
CESC jumped 4.76% to Rs 227.90 after a report suggested that the company's Rs 2500-crore retail expansion plan till 2010 was intact and it would have 750 Spencer's Retail stores by then. The unlisted Spencer's Retail is a unit of CESC.
GMR Infrastructure declined 5.79% to Rs 62.60 on reports the company has backed out of its $155-million acquisition of 50% stake in Homeland Mining & Energy, a coal mining firm in South Africa.
Daily Call - Nov 14 2008
Global markets are going through turmoil of enormous proportions. Large amount of shares are changing hands everyday with extreme price volatility. On one side we have Mutual fund and Hedge fund as sellers who face redemption and needs to get out of markets soon and on the other side are the traders who earlier went short and want to lock in their profits by reversing their positions or long term investors who appear on the scene when they perceive a bargain.
Take an example of US markets. While we were closed on Thursday, US markets fell shapely on their Wednesday session and for most part of Thursday's markets, albeit to recover all its losses in the last few hours of trading. From Tuesday's close to Thursday's low Nasdaq was down almost 10% and Dow almost 8%. In two hours of the trade yesterday, they surged back 12% and 10% respectively. To put these numbers in perspective, US market first lost as much market cap as India's size of Economy and recovered more than that by the closing.
The reverse is likely to happen in our markets, we may open higher with the world markets, but sustaining opening gains looks daunting. 10300 is the resistance now, on our way up and 9300 and 9000 are the supports for the Sensex.
Market likely to rally on lower inflation, strong global cues
Inflation at a six-month low and strong global cues are likely to trigger a rally in key benchmark indices today, 14 November 2008.
Meanwhile all eyes will be on the world leaders who are meeting in Washington later today, 14 November 2008, to discuss a way out of the current global downturn. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who left on Thursday night, 13 November 2008 for the G20 meet, is ready with his recommendation to tackle the global meltdown. Manmohan Singh said International financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank should be strengthened to ensure that the fallout on developing countries is minimal. He also stressed that in a coordinated approach towards monetary and fiscal policies, India plans to work in tandem with China, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa within the G20.
Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index, declined sharply to 8.98% in the week ending 1 November 2008 from 10.72% in the previous week mainly due to sharp drop in oil prices. This cool-off will allow the government to infuse more liquidity into the economy and give the Reserve Bank of India room to cut rates.
US stocks rallied on Thursday, 13 November 2008 after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq touched new multiyear lows earlier in the session as bargain hunters scooped up beaten-down shares. The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 552.59 points, or 6.67%, to 8,835.25, Standard & Poor's 500 Index shot up 58.97 points, or 6.92%, to 911.27 and Nasdaq Composite index surged 97.49 points, or 6.5% to 1,596.70.
Asian markets rose today, 14 November 2008, snapping a four-day losing streak, as investors stepped in to snap up battered stocks. China's Shanghai Composite advanced 1.03% or 19.86 points at 1,947.47, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 3.53% or 466.56 points at 13,687.91, Japan's Nikkei rose 4.26% or 351.15 points at 8,589.79, Singapore's Straits Times added 1.99% or 34.90 points at 1,790.37, South Korea's Seoul Composite was up 0.82% or 8.96 points at 1,097.40 and Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted gained 0.48% or 21.28 points at 4,459.11.
Back home, the stock market remained shut on Thursday, 13 November 2008 on account of Gurunanak Jayanti. Key benchmark indices slumped in volatile trade on Wednesday, 12 November 2008, extending Tuesday's (11 November 2008) losses on political uncertainty ahead of the beginning of assembly polls in five states. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 303.36 points or 3.08% to 9,536.33 and the S&P CNX Nifty lost 90.20 points, or 3.07%, to 2,848.45, on that day.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers worth Rs 735.14 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 215.48 crore on Wednesday, 12 November 2008, according to provisional data on NSE
Pre Session Commentary - Nov 14 2008
Today markets are likely to open with positive gap as US markets closed positive despite some bad news. The Asian markets have also responded positively and hence opened with positive gap. The inflation numbers have calmed down to 8.98% showing some sign of relief as the crude oil prices have fallen to 22 months low. Amidst good macro economic factors we expect markets to trade in green.
On Wednesday, domestic Markets opened with a huge negative gap and later traded highly volatile. The huge negative gap later bounced back in the positive territory however the poor IIP numbers pulled the momentum. The European markets however traded mixed and the major indices like FTSE and DAX ended positive. Investors were in the trap of confusion and therefore remained cautious. Sensex and Nifty fell by 3.08% and 3.07% respectively. Realty plummet the highest by 7.34% followed by Bankex and Metal that fell by 4.38% and 3.67% respectively. During the trading session we expect the market to be trading in green.
The BSE Sensex closed lower by 303.36 points at 9,536.33 and NSE Nifty ended lower by 90.20 points at 2,848.45. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with losses of 75.43 points at 3,281.27 and by 74.63 points at 3,813.38. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,928.60 and intraday low of 9,376.73.
On Thursday, US markets closed in green with phenomenal gains. The jobless claims were high as the claims for the week ended November 8 were at 5,16,000, which is considered as seven year high. Wal-Mart stated expects earnings for the fourth quarter to range from $1.03 to $1.07 per share, and from $3.42 to $3.46 per share for fiscal 2009. Despite such bad news investors didn’t hesitate to keep buying. Crude oil futures for the December delivery rose $3.72 cents to $59.37 a barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange. It also touched 22 months low in the previous trading session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed higher by 552.59 points at 8835.25 NASDAQ index gained 97.49 points at 1,596.70 and the S&P 500 (SPX) also closed high by 58.99 points to close at 911.29 points.
Indian ADRs ended negative. In technology sector, Infosys gained (7.24%) and Wipro gained by (13.81%) followed by Satyam that ended high by (11.9%) and Patni Computers closing high by (12.85%). In banking sector ICICI Bank was high by (9.04%), while HDFC Bank rose (11.66%). In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication declined by (18.30%), while MTNL was high by (7.53%). Sterlite Industries was high by (11.09%).
Today the major stock markets in Asia opened positive. The Shanghai Composite is trading high by 19.65 at 1,947.27. Hang Seng is high by 378.98 points at 13,600.33. Further Japan''s Nikkei is high by 294.73 points at 8,533.37. Straits Times is also trading high by 30.12 points at 1,785.59 and South Korea’s Seoul Composite is high by 6.11 points at 1,094.55.
The FIIs on Wednesday stood as net seller in equity while net buyer in debt. The Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 1,347.40 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 1,604.80 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 1,613.90 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 266.60 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were (Rs 266.50) Crore and Rs 1,338.20 Crore respectively.
On Wednesday, the partially convertible rupee ended at 49.30/32 per dollar, it’s weakest in more than 12 years and 2% below Tuesday’s close of 48.125/140. The rupee fell on outflow from stock markets and heavy demand from PSU banks to meet the commercial operations.
On BSE, total number of shares traded was 28.37 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 3,690.41 Crore. On NSE, total volume of shares traded was 61.36 Crore and total turnover was Rs 10,200.74 Crore.
Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Suzlon energy with 40125626 shares followed by Unitech 19890671 shares, SAIL with 17093645 shares, ICICI Bank with 14871870 shares and Reliance Petro with 14445054 shares respectively.
On NSE Future and Options, total numbers of contracts traded in index futures were 1321525 with a total turnover of Rs 17,895.87 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 933055 with a total turnover of Rs 10,294.15 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1378147 and total turnover was Rs 20,845.89 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 51116 and notional turnover was Rs 581.72 Crore.
Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,925 and resistance at 3,255 and BSE Sensex has support at 9,895 and resistance at 10,455.
Market may witness pull-back
After losing 300 points in the last session the market is likely to head northwards on firm Asian indices, which are up around 1-2% in morning trades. Among the domestic indices, the Nifty could test higher levels of 2900 and may dip to 2800 on the downside. The Sensex has a likely support at 9350 and may face resistance at 9650.
A late session push by the tech sector helped the US indices end their losing streak. While the Dow Jones flared up by 552 points at 8835, the Nasdaq moved up by 97 points at 1,597.
All the Indian ADRs traded firm on the US bourses. VSNL led the pack with gains of nearly 18.30% followed by Wipro, Satyam Computer, Patni Computer & HDFC Bank gained above 11%, ICICI Bank, MTNL and Infosys jumped over 7-9% each. Among other gainers Dr Reddy's Lab,Tata motors and MTNL added around 2-3% each.
Crude oil prices advanced, with the Nymex light crude oil for December delivery gaining by $2.08 to close at $58.24 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for December delivery lost $13.30 to settle at $705 an ounce.
Daily News Roundup - Nov 14 2008
SAIL may defer finalizing expansion plan of increasing its production capacity from 15mtpa to over 26mtpa (ET)
Tata Steel to not cut production (ET)
NTT DoCoMo buys 26% in Tata Teleservices for US$2.7bn. (ET)
NTT DoCoMo and Tata Sons are learnt to have decided to make the 20% open offer for the shareholders of TTML at Rs24.7 a share (ET)
Tata Motors plans to shut its Jamshedpur plant for the second time by the end of November and extend the closure of its Lucknow plant by another week. (BS)
Mr RatanTata has asked all the Tata Group companies to put on hold their acquisition and capital expenditure plans. (BL)
DoT issues notice to RCom on account of showing non-voice revenue as net revenue. (ET)
NTPC’s SPV for cement plants will be in place within two months (BS)
Reliance Petro is likely to commission only half of its refinery’s capacity at Jamnagar by December-end (ET)
IOC refining margins may remain negative in November (BL)
Bharti Airtel and Nortel announced an enhanced managed services agreement under which Nortel will continue to provide its contact centre technology (CCT) solution. (BL)
Bharti Wal-Mart, grocery and retail chain operator, will be going ahead with its plans to launch its cash and carry stores by June 2009. (BS)
OVL and its partner IRP Red Sea have made a second oil & gas discovery in Egypt (BS)
Unitech is looking for potential customers for selling or leasing a commercial building in New Delhi (DNA)
Telenor, Unitech JV will not participate in 3G spectrum auction, and launch 2G services next year. (BS)
BHEL plans to tie-up with L&T for new nuclear orders (BL)
GMR Infra backs out of its US$155mn acquisition of 50% stake in Homeland Mining & Energy in South Africa (BS)
Ispat Industries is learnt to have defaulted on a loan to UTI (ET)
Indian Hotels is likely to create another brand between the Taj luxury brand and the recently-launched Gateway Hotels to attract value tourists and expand the range of its offerings. (BS)
United Spirits has entered into ‘exclusive talks’ with Diageo, for a partnership and a possible minority stake sale out. (ET)
Kingfisher Airlines has defaulted dues to Nacil, which was providing ground handling facilities to the company. (ET)
Ambuja Cements may shift its upcoming project in the Barh district of Bihar for grinding capacity, citing law and order issues. (BS)
The government has asked Gail to pay 64.4% higher or Rs6.6bn as its subsidy payout in September quarter this year. (BS)
UCO Bank has cut it prime lending rate by 75bps at 13.75%. (BL)
Andhra Bank has cut it prime lending rate by 75bps at 13.25%. (BL)
US FDA has found fifteen manufacturing deficiencies at one of Lupin’s plants in Madhya Pradesh during an inspection (ET)
GVK Power and Infrastructure to divest its 49% stake in its SPV to Australia-based Macquire Group in a deal worth Rs4.65bn (DNA)
GSPC-Essar to invest US$8mn in Indonesian block (BS)
SKF India bags Euro303mn Suzlon contract (BL)
SKF India to put its Haridwar facility on hold (BS)
3i infotech sets up wholly owned subsidiary to focus on consumer services (ET)
Dish TV aims for 85% market share by 2011 (BS)
Moser Baer expects turnaround in optical media business soon (DNA)
Shasun Chemicals expects margins to decline on two of its key APIs in this fiscal (DNA)
Inflation falls to a near six-month low of 8.98% for the week ended November 1 (ET)
Oil prices fall to a 22-month low at US$55/barrel (BS)
India crude basket likely to fall below US$50/barell (BL)
Central Government approves coal linkages for 35,000 MW power projects that are scheduled to start production by the end of 11th plan (FE)
Global IT spend to grow by 2.6% in 2009, down from expected 5.8% in 2008, and with only 0.9% growth in the US, as per IDC (FE)
Industrial production grew 4.8% in September, below 7% in the same month last year but well above 1.4% in August. (BS)
Indian drug industry’s export earnings growth is expected to fall by 10 percentage points in 2008-09. (BS)
Domestic air traffic declined for the fourth consecutive month this October, confirming fears that traffic for the entire calendar year will dip as compared with last year. (BS)
Indian textile mills have started importing raw cotton from Pakistan. (BS)
No bidders for Rs11bn NHAI projects (FE)
Government asks cash rich PSUs to declare interim dividend. (ET)
Companies may soon be forced to reveal losses from foreign exchange fluctuations in their financial results (ET)
Government will soon review its policy of allowing state-owned companies to invest 30% of their surplus in equity linked public sector MFs (ET)
Occupancies in premium hotels fall 2% yoy in September while ARR are higher 21%, as per Crisil (ET)
Coal India receives twelve bids for its proposed JV to develop eighteen abandoned mines (DNA)
Country’s engineering exports to decline by 20-30% in Q4 FY09 (ET)
Inflated hope for bulls!
In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield – Warren Buffet.
Headwinds are leaving their ugly mark on the windshields of the investors. The rearview brings some hope that measures in the recent past are slowly bringing in the desired results. At least on paper! After a welcome break, the bulls have something to cheer about. A major source of relief for the battered and bruised stocks will be the unexpected sharp drop in inflation. The positive surprise has triggered speculation about further easing in monetary policy, as policymakers attempt to bolster growth in the face of a severe economic downturn worldwide. The expected announcement from the RBI could come over the next few days (may even happen over the weekend). The impending policy measures, coupled with the rebound across worldwide equity markets could well ensure a happy ending to an otherwise turbulent and highly volatile week.
Like we said, the windshields don’t offer a clear view as yet. Do not overlook the raft of grim news (both economic and corporate) over the past several days, including Thursday when our markets were shut. They point to a rapidly worsening economic and business climate around the globe. Global recession is more or less factored in but the crux of the matter is the crisis appears to be worsening by the day. The slew of steps taken by global policymakers to stem the tide do no appear to have bore fruit as yet, except for the softening in Libor rates. When will this bloodbath end? No one really has the answers. Coming to today's trade, we see a strong opening, and if all goes well, a bright day for the bulls. But, as usual, we continue to advocate caution.
FIIs were net sellers of Rs7.35bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Wednesday while local institutions pumped in Rs2.15bn. In the F&O segment, they were net sellers at Rs3.9bn. On Monday, foreign funds were net buyers of Rs1.35bn in the cash segment. Mutual funds were net buyers at Rs5.05bn on the same day.
Leaders of G-20 - a group of leading developed and emerging nations - are scheduled to meet today in Washington to discuss the financial meltdown and the global economic slump, along with fresh remedial measures. The yen rose against the dollar and the euro on speculation that the G-20 summit will fail to reach a consensus on how to kick-start the global economy. Under debate are proposals ranging from curbing executive pay and restraining hedge funds to raising capital requirements for banks and subjecting credit-rating companies to stiffer oversight.
China's spending on factories and real estate cooled in the first 10 months, adding to weaker growth in industrial output, trade and inflation in signaling that a slowdown is deepening in the world's fourth-biggest economy. Europe's economy probably fell into its first recession in 15 years in the third quarter, paving the way for deeper cuts to interest rates and taxes amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Oil prices rose for a second day in New York, extending its rebound from a 21-month low. Crude oil for December delivery rose as much as $1.72, or 3%, to $59.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $58.48 a barrel at 9:54 a.m. Singapore time. Prices have tumbled 60 percent from a record $147.27 on July 11.
US stocks bounced back with a vengeance on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its third best single-session point gain ever after wild swings in both directions.
The rally came even as the raft of bad news on the economy and earnings front continued unabated, with investors reeling in the face of rising unemployment claims and reduced outlooks from Intel and Wal-Mart.
After rising more than 100 points at the start, only to lapse below 8,000 for the first time since Oct. 10, the Dow traded up and down in a 911-point range to end at 8,835.25, up 552.59 points or 6.7%.
Twenty-two of the blue-chip index's 30 components gained ground. Blue-chip financial shares were among those tallying losses.
Intel shares gained 6.7% after it cut its outlook late Wednesday, warning fourth-quarter revenue would be as much as 17% lower than previously forecast due to significantly weaker-than-expected demand in all geographies and market segments.
GE shares ended lower by 4.2% amid talk of a government bailout of the beleaguered US auto industry. GE shares were up 3.5%, reversing course on declines that came on renewed speculation the industrial conglomerate may have to raise additional cash to cover higher debt costs.
Wal-Mart advanced 4.4% after the retailing giant reported a better-than-forecast 10% profit rise in the third quarter but lowered its 2008 earnings outlook.
After lapsing to a low not seen since early 2003, the S&P 500 turned upwards, climbing 58.99 points, or 6.9% to 911.29. Energy, financials and materials fronted the solid gains that included all 10 of the S&P's industry groups.
The technology-laden Nasdaq Composite surged 97.49 points, or 6.5%, to settle at 1,596.70.
Market breadth was positive. More than 14 stocks rose for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where almost 2 billion shares changed hands in the busiest trading session since Oct. 16.
US stocks had tumbled each day this week and through early Thursday afternoon. But the sell-off left the major indices at levels that many market analysts thought could represent a bear market bottom, at least in the near term.
As soon as the Dow fell below 8,000, we saw a rush of buying. It was the second time the market "retested" those lows, which were first hit around Oct. 10. The major indices slumped to around those levels at the end of October and now again in mid-November.
A key benchmark for tracking European shares moved modestly lower on Wednesday, as investors eyed more bad news on the global economy, although gains from Siemens and BT Group took the edge off losses.
The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index dipped 0.6% to 204.08 and is now roughly 45% lower over the past year.
The French CAC-40 index advanced 1.1% to 3,269.46 and Germany's DAX 30 index rose 0.6% to 4,649.52, while the UK's FTSE 100 index fell 0.3% to 4,169.21. Austria's ATX tumbled 4.9% to 1,778.93.
After another volatile day of trade, the BSE Sensex closed at 9,536.33, down 303 points or 3% over the previous close. It touched a high of 9,928 and a low of 9,376 during wild intra-day swings. It had lost 6.6% on Tuesday.
On the other hand, the NSE Nifty shut shop at 2,848, down 90 points or 3%. It had been as high as 2,975 and as low as 2,794 in intra-day trading.
The BSE Small-Cap index and the BSE Mid-Cap index were down 1.9% and 2.25%, respectively.
In terms of sectors, the worst hit were Real Estate (down 7.3%), Banking (down 4.4%), Metals (down 3.7%), Capital Goods (down 3.6%), Power (down 3%) and Oil & Gas (down 3%). Auto, FMCG and Pharma stocks lost 2.3% and 1.4%, respectively.
Only the BSE IT index (down 0.08%) escaped unhurt from today's sell-off.
Within the Sensex, the biggest losers were Jaiprakash Associates (down 9.1%), DLF (down 8.3%), ICICI Bank (down 8%), Hindalco (down 5.6%), Hindustan Unilever (down 4.7%), Sterlite (down 4.5%), Reliance Infra (4.5%), M&M (4.3%) and L&T (4.1%).
Other big losers included Bharti Airtel, SBI, RIL, ONGC, Tata Steel, ACC, Tata Power, Ranbaxy, BHEL and Maruti.
TCS and Infosys bucked the negative trend, while fellow IT major Wipro ended flat. Satyam was down 1.6%.
Grasim ended marginally lower. HDFC and HDFC Bank were down over 1% each. ITC lost 1.4% and NTPC finished nearly unchanged.
Outside the main indices, the major losers were Mcnally Bharat, Indiabulls Real Estate, Great Offshore, Aban Offshore, Sterlite Technologies, Welspun Gujarat, Thermax, Zee Enterprise, Deccan Chronicle, IVR Prime, SAIL and Crompton Greaves.
Shares of Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) jumped 7.6% to Rs17.99 after Japan's NTT DoCoMo said that it would buy a 26% stake in its parent, Tata Teleservices, for US$2.7bn. It will also make an open offer for another 20% shares.
Public sector oil marketing companies - IOC, HPCL and BPCL - were up as crude oil prices slipped to US$58 per barrel, almost a 20-month low. Meanwhile, Petroleum Minister Murli Deora said that the Government will consider lowering fuel prices when crude oil prices and the rupee stabilise.
Other prominent gainers outside the indices included the likes of Max India, Glenmark Pharma, Piramal Lifesciences, Allcargo Global, IOl Net Com, Madhucon Projects, Maytas Infra, Hindustan Zinc, Vijaya Bank, Cranes Software, Gujarat Gas and Tata communications.
In the day's crucial economic news, the IIP for September came mostly in line with expectations, as factories increased production ahead of Diwali. However, there are worries that the IIP for October and the coming months may throw up negative surprises.
The market rallied briefly after the release of the IIP data, but soon turned lower, as fears of a further slowdown in the Indian economy set in.
Bullion metals turn further pale
Gold sheds more than $40 in past three sessions
Bullion metals ended considerably lower for third straight day on Thursday, 13 November, 2008. Investors became concerned that global recession will definitely lower the demand for the precious metals. Since past three sessions, gold has shed almost $40.
On Thursday, Comex Gold for December delivery fell $13.3 (1.9%) to close at $705 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices earlier fell to a low of $698.2. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (33%) since then. Last week, gold prices ended higher by 2.2%. For the month of October, gold ended lower by 18%. It was the biggest percentage loss for gold since February, 1983.
This year, gold prices have lost 16.7% till date. The dollar index has gained 13% this year. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.
On Thursday, Comex silver futures for December delivery fell 68 cents (7.2%) to $8.8 an ounce. Last week, silver gained 2.3%. For the month of October, silver slipped by 20%. Till date, silver has lost 29.6% this year. Silver had ended month and quarter of September 2008 with a loss of 10%. For the second quarter, it had gained a paltry 1.4%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. The metal also had gained for seven straight years.
Crude ends more than $2 higher
Prices pare early losses thinking recent drop in prices is not justified
After two consecutive sessions of drop, crude prices ended higher on Thursday, 13 November, 2008. A sudden and late rise in US stocks today at Wall Street was the main reason behind this. Crude had earlier dropped during the day.
On Wednesday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for December delivery closed at $58.24/barrel (higher by $2.08 or 3.7%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices reached a low of $54.67 during intra day trading. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 68% since then. Last week, prices fell by 10%. On a yearly basis, crude price is lower by 40%. For this year in 2008, crude prices have dropped 43.5%.
For the month of October, 2008, crude prices ended lower by 32.6%, the biggest monthly drop since 1983.
EIA reported today that crude supplies were unchanged for a second week to stand at 311.9 million barrels for the week ended 7 November, 2008. Motor gasoline supplies climbed 2 million to 198.1 million barrels in the latest week. And distillates, which include heating oil, were up 600,000 barrels at 128.4 million
The IEA, in its latest report, said today that it expects global demand to grow by 120,000 barrels to 86.2 million barrels a day in 2008, down 330,000 barrels from its previous daily forecast. And for 2009, it now sees demand rising 350,000 barrels to 86.5 million barrels a day, which is down 670,000 barrels a day from its previous estimate.
In its latest monthly report issued yesterday, EIA said that it expects world oil demand to rise almost 100,000 barrels per day in 2008 and to remain "virtually flat" in 2009. In US, it expects petroleum-product demand to drop 5.4%, or 1.1 million barrels per day, from the 2007 average to 19.6 million barrels per day in 2008. That marks the first time since 1980 that annual total petroleum consumption is expected to decline by more than 1 million barrels per day. The government also predicts an average crude price of $101.45 for this year and $63.50 for 2009.
OPEC officials decided last month at its meeting at Vienna that OPEC will pare production by 1.5 million barrels a day w.e.f 1 November, 2008. The official production quota is currently 28.8 million barrels, and it decided to cut by 1.5 million in November. After that, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pledged to cut production even deeper if prices are not in the $70-$90 range in its 1st December meeting.
For the third quarter of the year crude prices ended lower by 28%. This was the biggest quarterly drop since 1991. Before that, crude prices had gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. For the month of September, prices registered drop of 13%.
Against this background, December reformulated gasoline closed at $1.3024 a gallon, up 5.4 cents, or 4.4%, and December heating oil added 4 cents to finish at $1.875 a gallon.
December natural-gas futures shed 8.7 cents to close at $6.318 per million British thermal units. Prices are down about 15% year-to-date.
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