BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 1 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
1/7/2008 532493 ASTRA MICRO RELIANCE CAPITAL TRUSTEE CO LTD AC RELIANCE LONG TERM EQUITY FUND B 2872263 36.50
1/7/2008 532493 ASTRA MICRO FIDELITY FUNDS MAURITIUS LIMITED S 2872263 36.50
1/7/2008 532989 BAFNA PHARMA N D NISSAR B 135811 28.83
1/7/2008 532989 BAFNA PHARMA KEDAR RAMESH VAZE B 112000 28.98
1/7/2008 532989 BAFNA PHARMA N D NISSAR S 135811 28.81
1/7/2008 532989 BAFNA PHARMA KEDAR RAMESH VAZE S 100500 27.38
1/7/2008 590061 BRUSHMAN IND PR VYAPAAR PRIVATE LIMITED B 140000 126.44
1/7/2008 590061 BRUSHMAN IND JRK CONSULTANTS PVT LTD S 128870 126.22
1/7/2008 530713 CHOKSH INFO SAI SHREYA ESTATES PVT LTD B 23400 30.30
1/7/2008 530713 CHOKSH INFO SUNEEL KUMAR RAVI HUF B 40000 29.88
1/7/2008 532990 GMR FERRO MANSUKH SECURITIES AND FINANCE LTD B 89479 83.40
1/7/2008 532990 GMR FERRO MANSUKH SECURITIES AND FINANCE LTD S 89479 83.01
1/7/2008 532129 HEXAWARE LTD DALI LIMITED B 1873647 50.15
1/7/2008 532129 HEXAWARE LTD SWISS FINANCE CORP MAU LTD S 1873647 50.15
1/7/2008 512185 IOL NET COM SHREE DHOOT TRADING AND AGIENCES LTD B 155639 72.85
1/7/2008 530885 JAISAL SECUR SRIPATHEE INVESTSMENTS PVT LTD B 20000 36.99
1/7/2008 532985 KOTAK SENSEX EDELWEISS SECURITIES LIMITED S 15780 131.79
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT OM EDUCATION IT PVT. LTD B 61030 176.00
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT AYODHYAPATI INVESTMENT PVT. LTD B 237180 164.40
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT RAJ CORPORATION B 100000 145.45
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT S. M. NISSAR B 83744 165.30
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT N D NISSAR B 65560 161.78
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT AYODHYAPATI INVESTMENT PVT. LTD S 230823 151.40
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT S. M. NISSAR S 83744 166.00
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT BHAVESH PRAKASH PABARI S 65000 149.19
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT N D NISSAR S 65560 162.21
1/7/2008 532986 NIRAJ CEMENT HEMANT MADHUSUDAN SHETH S 74169 147.69
1/7/2008 524372 ORCHID CHEM LB INDIA HOLDINGS CAYMAN II LTD B 335564 230.75
1/7/2008 532884 REFEX REFRIG TUSHAR RAMESHBHAI PATEL B 188000 212.14
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS AADESH CORPORATION B 140000 122.05
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS MANSUKH STOCK BROKERS LTD B 264137 116.64
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS S. M. NISSAR B 292007 92.01
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS R M SHARES TRADING PVT LTD B 871278 106.10
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS N D NISSAR B 159726 104.12
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS H.J.SECURITIES PVT LTD. B 350854 114.19
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS RUCHI GLOBAL LIMITED B 50000 81.00
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS B K SHAH B 458489 111.88
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS MANSUKH STOCK BROKERS LTD S 264137 115.91
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS S. M. NISSAR S 292007 92.12
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS KMUK AC PREMIER INVESTMENT FUND LTD S 195698 126.79
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS R M SHARES TRADING PVT LTD S 871278 105.48
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS N D NISSAR S 159726 104.12
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS IDFC ENTERPRISE EQUITY FUND S 150000 125.84
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS SAHAVN INVSTMNT M LTD. S 179000 130.50
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS LOTUS GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LTD S 350000 123.34
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS H.J.SECURITIES PVT LTD. S 350854 114.19
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS TAIB SEC MAURITIUS LTD S 210838 127.89
1/7/2008 532993 SEJAL GLASS B K SHAH S 458485 109.73
1/7/2008 532299 TEL EIGHTEEN SOROS FUNDS MANAGEMENT AC QUANTUM M LTD S 644010 241.00
1/7/2008 531404 ZICOM ELE SE ATOM FINVEST PVT LTD S 85000 135.39

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 1 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
01-JUL-2008,ALKYLAMINE,Alkyl Amine Chem Ltd,KLB SECURITIES PVT LTD,BUY,81000,98.58,-
01-JUL-2008,GMRFER,GMR Ferro Alloys & Indust,MANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTD,BUY,85057,83.74,-
01-JUL-2008,IOLN,IOL Netcom Limited,SHREE DHOOT TRADING & AGENCIES LIMITED,BUY,190000,72.93,-
01-JUL-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,LB INDIA HOLDINGS CAYMAN II LTD,BUY,517801,230.01,-
01-JUL-2008,SASKEN,Sasken Commu Techno Ltd,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,BUY,188433,128.29,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,ASTUTE COMMODITIES & DERIVATIVES Pvt Ltd,BUY,554368,100.57,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,AVANI AMITBHAI KORADIA,BUY,550000,91.63,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,B K SHAH CO KETAN BHAILAL SHAH,BUY,529713,109.54,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,CHIRAG Y. THAKKAR,BUY,180000,81.90,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,BUY,189562,100.28,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,DHARA VIMESH DOSHI,BUY,170449,89.15,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,DINESH MUNJAL,BUY,235012,103.19,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,DIPAK RAMANBHAI RATHOD,BUY,317283,116.28,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,G RAMAKRISHNA,BUY,186000,114.44,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,GOPAL TRADERS,BUY,603232,106.82,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,LATIN MANHARLAL SECURITIES PVT. LTD.,BUY,447423,103.74,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,MANIPUT INVESTMENTS PVT LTD,BUY,155952,106.54,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,MANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTD,BUY,243862,113.25,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,MARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITED,BUY,229572,101.78,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,NEHA INVESTMENTS (P) LTD,BUY,181797,105.21,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,NISSAR BROTHERS,BUY,145533,87.84,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,PRABHUDAS LILLADHER PVT LTD.,BUY,278295,106.60,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,PUJA TAPARIA,BUY,140000,96.20,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,PUSHPA MAHENDRA SANGHAVI,BUY,177269,102.47,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,R APPALA RAJU,BUY,300000,108.53,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,R.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,BUY,958208,104.96,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,SANGEETA KAKANI,BUY,159925,99.01,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,370016,97.11,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,UDDHAO RASHMI SANDEEP,BUY,179352,100.87,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,VAIBHAV DOSHI,BUY,290280,93.16,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,VIPUL PANNALAL SHAH,BUY,168100,123.45,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,VIVEK STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,BUY,297617,114.96,-
01-JUL-2008,ALKYLAMINE,Alkyl Amine Chem Ltd,KAMLABEN BABULAL JAIN,SELL,60000,98.78,-
01-JUL-2008,ASTRAMICRO,Astra Microwave Products,FIDELITY FUNDS - EMERGING MARKETS FUND,SELL,333784,38.26,-
01-JUL-2008,GMRFER,GMR Ferro Alloys & Indust,MANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTD,SELL,85057,84.41,-
01-JUL-2008,SASKEN,Sasken Commu Techno Ltd,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,SELL,182932,127.85,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,ASTUTE COMMODITIES & DERIVATIVES Pvt Ltd,SELL,554362,100.71,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,AVANI AMITBHAI KORADIA,SELL,450000,92.22,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,B K SHAH CO KETAN BHAILAL SHAH,SELL,529639,110.15,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,SELL,189562,100.80,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,DHARA VIMESH DOSHI,SELL,170449,90.11,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,DINESH MUNJAL,SELL,235012,101.68,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,DIPAK RAMANBHAI RATHOD,SELL,290283,112.37,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,G RAMAKRISHNA,SELL,186000,114.60,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,GOPAL TRADERS,SELL,553232,103.10,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,IDFC ENTERPRISE EQUITY FUND,SELL,224100,125.37,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,LATIN MANHARLAL SECURITIES PVT. LTD.,SELL,447423,103.92,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,LOTUS GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LTD,SELL,172266,125.42,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,MANIPUT INVESTMENTS PVT LTD,SELL,155952,106.68,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,MANSUKH SECURITIES & FINANCE LTD,SELL,243862,114.30,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,MARWADI SHARES AND FINANCE LIMITED,SELL,229572,102.07,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,NEHA INVESTMENTS (P) LTD,SELL,162797,92.68,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,NISSAR BROTHERS,SELL,145533,87.86,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,PRABHUDAS LILLADHER PVT LTD.,SELL,278295,106.91,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,PUJA TAPARIA,SELL,140000,121.26,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,PUSHPA MAHENDRA SANGHAVI,SELL,177269,102.27,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,R APPALA RAJU,SELL,300000,110.79,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,R.M. SHARE TRADING PVT LTD,SELL,958208,105.79,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,SANGEETA KAKANI,SELL,159925,99.18,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,370016,97.82,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,UDDHAO RASHMI SANDEEP,SELL,179352,100.77,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,VAIBHAV DOSHI,SELL,290280,95.46,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,VICKY RAJESHBHAI JHAVERI,SELL,159561,125.00,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,VIPUL PANNALAL SHAH,SELL,168100,122.67,-
01-JUL-2008,SEJALGLASS,Sejal Architectural Glass,VIVEK STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,SELL,297617,109.63,-

Post Session Commentary - July 1 2008

The market faced a blood bath during closing hours and ended in deep red as heavy selling witnessed across the board on growing worries about high oil prices as International Energy Agency has cautioned today about tight oil supply in the medium term along with rising inflation and political uncertainty. The BSE Sensex slipped below 13,000 mark for the first time since April 2007 and NSE Nifty below 3,900. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices closed with deep cut of more than 4%. Market opened on flat note on the back of mixed global cues but was not able to sustain the momentum and drifted downward. Further it was showing volatility and continued to trade weak to close in deep red. Oil Prices rose over $143 per barrel on Monday. From the sectoral front, all indices closed in red with reality stocks ended with a huge cut of 7% and bank and metal indices with more than 5%. Metal, Bank, Reality, Oil & Gas and Capital Goods stocks were worst performers as witnessed most of the selling. The market breadth was extremely weak as 2272 stocks closed in red while 406 stocks closed in green.

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 499.92 points at 12,961.68 and NSE Nifty ended down by 143.80 points at 3,896.85. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Cap closed negative with fall of 244.62 points and 316.85 points 5,141.86 and 6,385.11 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high 13,613.82 and intraday low of 12,904.09.

Lossers from the BSE are Reliance Infra (10.54%), Reliance Com Ltd (10.49%), M&M Ltd (9.27%), Maruti Suzuki (8.05%), SBI (7.81%), DLF Ltd (7.02%), HDFC (6.47), ICICI Bank Ltd (6.46%) and JP Associates (6.01%).

The Metal index closed down by 713.11 points at 12,494.19. As SH Precoated (16.35%), JSW SL (13.92%), Ispat Industries (11.32%), Maharashtra Seamless (9.67%), Sesa Goa Ltd (9.48%) and Hindustan Zinc (7.42%) closed in negative territory.

The Capital Goods index dropped by 336.38 points to close at 9,744.31. Major lossers are Suzlon Energy (9.22%), BEML Ltd (6.98%), Punj Lloyd (6.87%), Bharat Elect (5.42), Havells India (5.22%) and ABB Ltd (5.15%).

The Banking index closed down by 332.39 points at 5,583.59. Lossers are Bank of India (8.77%), SBI (7.81%), Indian Overseas Bank (7.58%), PNB (6.91%), Karnataka Bank (6.51%), ICICI Bank Ltd (6.46%) and Andhra Bank (5.10%).

The Reality Index closed lower by 327.54 points at 4,215.93. Lossers are Housing Dev (12.70%) along with Pheonix Mill (12.40%), Ansal Infra (10.70%), Omaxe Ltd (8.75%), Anant Raj (8.69%) and DLF Ltd (7.02%).

The Oil & Gas index closed down by 275.44 points at 8,733.72. As Aban Offshore (9.71%), Reliance Natural Resources (9.13%), Cairn India (5.95%), BPCL (5.81%), IOC (5.12%)and Essar Oil Ltd (4.69%) closed in negative territory.

The Auto index closed lower by 176.15 points at 3,409.47. Lossers are M&M Ltd (9.27%), Maruti Suzuki (8.05%), Escorts Ltd (7.93%), TVS Motor Ltd (7.37%) and Appollo Tyre (7.22%).

Bears in command as Sensex sheds 1,460 points in three trading sessions

Bears are in complete command of the proceeding on the street thanks to record high oil prices, surging inflation, higher interest rates and political uncertainty which have rattled the bourses in the past few days. A third day of sell-off on the bourses today pulled the two key benchmark indices below psychological levels - the barometer index BSE Sensex fell below 13,000 mark and the S&P CNX Nifty fell below 4,000 level. Sensex has lost 1,460.14 points in the last three trading sessions.

Reliance Communications and Reliance Infrastructure fell more than 10% each in late trade. Banking, realty, auto and metal stocks fell. The market breadth was weak. Except NTPC all other Sensex stocks ended in the red. All the sectoral indices on BSE were in red.

Crude oil, India's biggest import, was trading above $141 a barrel today, 1 June 2008. It had hit a record $143.67 in the previous trading session.

European markets which opened after Indian market, were weak. The key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were down by between 1.84% to 2.4%.

The 30-share BSE Sensex lost 499.92 points or 3.71% at 12,961.68. It lost 557.51 points at day’s low of 12,904.09, its lowest level in more than 14 months. At the day’s high of 13,613.01 hit in mid-morning trade, the Sensex rose 151.41 points.

The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 158.8 points or 3.56% at 3,896.75. Nifty hit a low of 3,878.20, its lowest level in more than 14 months.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4961.13 crore compared to Monday (30 June 2008)'s Rs 4725.64 crore

From a record high of 21,206.77 hit on 10 January 2008, Sensex has lost 8,245.09 points or 38.87%. It has shed 7,325.31 points or 36.1% in calendar year 2008 thus far.

The market’s concerns are that the rise in input costs and tough macro economic environment comprising high inflation, record high global crude oil prices and rising interest rates, will result in slowdown in earnings growth of the corporate sector. Nevertheless, advance tax payment by the Indian corporate sector this year so far has been strong. Government’s direct tax collection from the corporate sector rose 39.81% to Rs 30655 crore until 21 June 2008 compared to the corresponding period last year.

Nifty July 2008 futures were at 3815, at a discount of 81.75 points as compared to spot closing of 3896.75.

Sustained selling of Indian stocks by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) has also dented market sentiment. As per provisional data, foreign funds sold shares worth a net Rs 208.66 crore on Monday, 30 June 2008. FII outflow in June 2008 totaled Rs 10095.80 crore (till 30 June 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 25465.30 crore.

The market breadth was weak on BSE with 406 shares advancing as compared to 2,272 that declined. 46 remained unchanged.

Political uncertainty continues to haunt Indian bourses. The media continues to speculate whether the ruling Congress led United Progressive Alliance government will be able to push through a much-debated Indo-US nuclear deal and still retain its power, in the face of heavy opposition from its key communist allies. The Left parties on Sunday, 29 June 2008, renewed their threat to withdraw support from the ruling coalition if Prime Minister Manmohan Singh forged ahead with the nuclear deal. Singh on Monday, 30 June 2008, promised to bring the nuclear pact with the US before parliament before going ahead with the deal that is fiercely opposed by his communist allies, a report said.

The Prime Minister played down the communists' threats to withdraw support to his government saying all that he wanted was that the government should be allowed to complete the negotiation process with the International Atomic Energy Agency-IAEA and Nuclear Suppliers' Group-NSG. Singh expressed confidence that the government would be able to address concerns of all including the Left parties on the civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the US.

For the stock market, the political uncertainty pertains to whether there will be stability at the centre if mid-term polls are held i.e. whether the new government will complete five years and whether the new government restarts economic reforms process which has virtually come to a halt in the last two years or so.

A good news in the current gloom on the macroeconomic front is that the Indian Meteorological Department (IND), in its long-range forecast update for the 2008 southwest monsoon, has maintained that rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be ‘near normal’. The department classifies rainfall as near normal when it's between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average. Good rains will bolster farm production which in turn may help rein in inflation.

Back to today's trade, the BSE Mid-Cap index declined 4.54% to 5,141.86 and BSE Small-Cap index fell 4.73% to 6,385.11. Both these indices underperformed Sensex.

BSE Realty index (down 7.21% at 4,215.93), BSE Bankex (down 5.62% at 5,583.59), BSE Metal index (down 5.4% to 12,494.19), BSE Auto (down 4.91% at 3,409.47), BSE Consumer Durables index (down 4.28% to 3,328.76), BSE Power (down 4.24% to 2,156.94) underperformed Sensex.

BSE IT index (down 1.74% to 3,949.95), BSE Health Care index (down 2.17% at 4,073.99), BSE FMCG index (down 2.83% to 2,021.44), The BSE Oil & Gas index (down 3.06% to 8,733.32), BSE TecK index (down 3.07% to 2,950.53), The BSE Capital Goods index (down 3.34% at 9,744.31), BSE PSU index (down 3.61% to 5,461.97), outperformed the Sensex.

India’s largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 2.34% to Rs 2,044.20.

Auto stocks tumbled. India’s largest carmaker by sales Maruti Suzuki India fell 8.05% to Rs 568. Its vehicle sales rose 2% to 61,247 units in June 2008 over June 2007. Mahindra & Mahindra (down 9.27% to Rs 440.10), Bajaj Auto (down 0.82% to Rs 446.75) edged lower.

India’s largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors fell 4.23% to Rs 408.45. Tata Motors today said it had raised prices of commercial vehicles by an average of 3% with immediate effect on account of higher input prices.

Metal stocks declined. Hindalco Industries (down 5.67% to Rs 134.05), Tata Steel (down 4.19% to Rs 697.85), Sterlite Industries (down 4.13% to Rs 673), Steel Authority of India (down 1.08% to Rs 137.90), National Aluminium Company (down 0.21% to Rs 348.80) edged lower.

Realty stocks extended recent steep fall. Indiabulls Real Estate (down 7.65% to Rs 250.45), Unitech (down 6.48% to Rs 159.60) and DLF (down 7.02% to Rs 368.40) edged lower.

Banking stocks fell after some of the major lenders hiked their lending rates. India’s largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank declined 6.46% to Rs 589.50. India’s largest dedicated housing finance firm by operating income HDFC fell 6.47% to Rs 1,835.45.

HDFC said on Monday, 30 June 2008, its prime lending rate would go up by 50 basis points from Tuesday, 1 July 2008. On the same day, ICICI Bank said rates on consumer loans would rise by 75 basis points on Tuesday, 1 July 2008. Both HDFC and ICICI Bank also raised deposit rates between 50-100 basis points.

India’s largest commercial bank State Bank of India fell 7.81% to Rs 1,024.65. It will decide in a week's time whether to raise interest rates on home loans, its chief, OP Bhatt, said today, 1 July 2008. The bank raised its benchmark prime lending rate by 50 basis points to 12.75% last week, after the central bank aggressively tightened policy in the face of surging inflation.

India’s second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank fell 4.22% to Rs 960.

NTPC rose 1.02% to Rs 153.20 and was the lone gainer from Sensex pack.

Reliance Communications (down 10.49% to Rs 396), Reliance Infrastructure (down 10.54% to Rs 702.05), Jaiprakash Associates (down 6.01% to Rs 135.20), Grasim Industries (down 5.02% to Rs 1,753.70), edged lower from Sensex pack.

Reliance Natural Resources clocked the highest volume of 1.62 crore shares on BSE. Reliance Petroleum (1.41 crore shares), Ispat Industries (1.07 crore shares), IFCI (1.05 crore shares), Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals (90.43 lakh shares) were the other volume toppers on BSE in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked the highest turnover of Rs 421.51 crore on BSE. Reliance Capital (Rs 337.97 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 239.36 crore), Reliance Infrastructure (Rs 137.77 crore) and Reliance Communications (Rs 115.52 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

Most of the Asian markets which opened before Indian markets were in the red. Key benchmark indices in China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea were down between 0.13% to 3.09%.

US markets, stocks ended mixed on Monday 30 June 2008 .The Dow Jones was up 3.50 points to 11,350.01. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 22.65 points to close at 2,292.98.

Market may recover as oil drops

A pull back in oil prices may provide some reprieve to Indian stocks buffeted by inflation fears. After hitting a record high of above $143 per barrel on Monday, 30 June 2008, oil prices pulled back to settle near $140 a barrel. However, subdued trend in Asian stocks and political uncertainty may cap gains. The market will also today watch data on monthly sales that will released by auto and cement firms to gauge the impact of increase in retail fuel prices on the economy. The auto sales figures for June 2008 will also reflect whether consumers are deferring purchases due to fears of further rise in interest rates.

Market’s concerns are that the rise in input costs and tough macro economic environment comprising high inflation, record high global crude oil prices and rising interest rates, will result in slowdown in earnings growth of the corporate sector. Nevertheless, advance tax payment by the Indian corporate sector this year so far has been strong. Government’s direct tax collection from the corporate sector rose 39.81% to Rs 30655 crore until 21 June 2008 compared to the corresponding period last year.

Political uncertainty continues to haunt the bourses. The media continues to speculate whether the ruling Congress led United Progressive Alliance government will be able to push through a much-debated Indo-US nuclear deal and still retain its power, in the face of heavy opposition from its key communist allies. The Left parties on Sunday, 29 June 2008, renewed their threat to withdraw support from the ruling coalition if Prime Minister Manmohan Singh forged ahead with the nuclear deal. Singh on Monday, 30 June 2008, promised to bring the nuclear pact with the US before parliament before going ahead with the deal that is fiercely opposed by his communist allies, a report said.

The Prime Minster played down the communist's threats to withdraw support to his government saying all that he wanted was that the government should be allowed to complete the negotiation process with the International Atomic Energy Agency-IAEA and Nuclear Suppliers' Group-NSG. Singh expressed confidence that the government would be able to address concerns of all including the Left parties on the civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the US

For the stock market, the political uncertainty pertains to whether there will be stability at the centre if mid-term polls are held i.e. whether the new government will complete five years and whether the new government restarts economic reforms process which has virtually come to a halt in the last two years or so.

Sustained selling of Indian stocks by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) has also dented market sentiment. As per provisional data, foreign funds sold shares worth a net Rs 208.66 crore on Monday, 30 June 2008. FII outflow in June 2008 totaled Rs 10095.80 crore (till 30 June 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 25465.30 crore.

Meanwhile, according to a recent Citigroup report, equity valuations in India have become attractive after a steep fall.

India Grey Market Premiums

Avon Weighing 10 6 to 8

Sejal Architectural Glass Ltd. 115 17 to 20

First Winners Ind. Ltd. 125 2 to 3

Archid Ply Ind. 74 3 to 4

Lotus Eye Care Hospital 38 2 to 2.50

KSK Energy Venture 240 to 255 Discount

Somi Conveyor Belting 35 3 to 5

Birla Cotysn (India) 15 to 18 1.50 to 2

Pre Session Commentary - July 1 2008

The Indian Market is expected to have positive opening on the back of mixed global cues. On Monday, the Indian market closed sharply lower at its lowest level in more than a year. Market slipped to deep red on rising crude oil and domestic political uncertainty. In the domestic political scenario, left parties has again threatened to pull out support from the UPA if government went to IAEA and there are signs that Congress may go ahead with the deal even if it leads to the collapse of the UPA coalition and early elections. Possible early election will be a risk for the market. Market opened flat tracking the mixed global cues and was trading volatile. Further, selling pressure among the indices dragged the market significantly lower. From the sectoral front, Oil & Gas, Capital Goods, Reality, Bank and Consumer Durables stocks were under pressure, while IT and Pharma stocks witnessed some buying interest. The BSE Sensex closed lower by 340.62 points at 13,461.60 and NSE Nifty ended down by 96.10 points at 4,040.55. We expect that market may remain range bound during the trading session.

US markets closed mixed on Monday as oil prices receded from a record high on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices reached above $143 a barrel but traded lower by midday to close at $140.36 a barrel

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed marginally higher by 3.50 points at 11,350.01 along with S&P 500 up by 1.62 points to close 1,280.00 while NASDAQ dropped by 22.65 points to close at 2,292.98.

Indian ADRs ended mixed. In technology sector, Wipro ended up by (1.42%) along with Infosys by (1.00%) while Patni Computers dropped by (6.26%) and Satyam by (1.88%). In banking sector, ICICI bank decreased by (3.03%) while HDFC bank gained (0.14%) respectively. In telecommunication sector, MTNL reduced by (0.23%) while Tata Communication advanced by (1.94%). Sterlite industries declined (1.49%).

Today the major stock markets in Asia are trading mixed. Hang Seng index is trading higher by 59.66 points at 22,102.01 along with Japan’s Nikkei trading up by 48.85 points at 13,530.23 while Taiwan Weighted trading at 7,492.71 with a fall of 30.83 points.

The FIIs on Monday stood as net seller in equity and debt. The gross equity purchased was Rs3,348.60 Crore and the gross debt purchased was Rs105.00 Crore while the gross equity sold stood at Rs4,094.70 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs366.70 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity reported was (Rs746.20) Crore and net debt was (Rs261.70) Crore.

Today, Nifty has support at 3,963 and resistance at 4,113 and BSE Sensex has support at 13,120 and resistance at 13,736.

Morning Call - July 1 2008

Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Nifty at a support of 3910 and 3970 with resistance at 4100 and 4160 levels.

Cash: Sell BAJAJ HIND below 165 TGT154 with S/L 169.

Cash Buy INFOSYS above 1750 TGT 1790 with S/L 1730

Future: sell HDFC below 1982 TGT 1914 with S/L 2010

Out House:

Markets at a support of 13425 & 13234 resistance at 13654 & 13786 levels .

Maintain strict stop loss as markets to be very choppy and volatile with short covering not ruled out at lower levels .

Buy : Infy & Satyam at dips

Buy : Cairn

Buy : Tisco

Buy : RIL

Buy : RPL

Buy : SKumar

Buy : Ibull & Ibreal with strict stop loss .

Buy : Kohinoor

Dark Horse : RIL , Infy , Tisco , Aban , Cairn , Glenmark , Lupin & RPL

Market may remain edgy

The market is likely to witness volatility as European market ended on positive side and major Asian gauges like the Nikkei, the Hang Seng index, the Straits Times Index and the Jakarta index are in positive territory in current trades and while us Market closed on flat note may rise the indices in early trades. However, intra-day volatility remains the major concern. Among the domestic indices, the Nifty may slip to 3995, while on the upside it could edge higher to 4090. The Sensex has a likely support at 13400 and may face resistance at 13660.

U.S. stocks ended flat on Monday with the Dow Jones gained by 4 points to close at 11350, the Nasdaq ended negative at 2293 down 23 points.

Most of the Indian ADRs trading on the US bourses closed in the green. Rediff led the pack with gains of 21.41% followed by Dr Reddy and VSNL both of which gained around 2%. Wipro, Infosys, Tata Motors and HDFC Bank gained marginally. Patni Computer however declined sharply lost 6.26% while Satyam, ICICI Bank and MTNL eased marginally.

Crude oil prices moved down marginally, with the Nymex light crude oil for August delivery declining by 21 cents to close at $140 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for August 2008 series lost $3 to settle at $928.30.

Birla Cotysn IPO

Birla Cotysn IPO

Technical Calls - Jul 1 2008

Technical Calls - Jul 1 2008

Market Outlook - Jul 1 2008

Market Outlook - Jul 1 2008

FII outflow continues unabated

Outflow of Rs 746.10 crore on 27 June 2008

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth net Rs 746.10 crore on Friday, 27 June 2008, compared to their selling of Rs 469 crore on Thursday, 26 June 2008.

FII outflow of Rs 746.10 crore on 27 June 2008 was a result of gross purchases Rs 3348.60 crore and gross sales Rs 4094.70 crore. Sensex slumped 619.60 points or 4.30% to 13,802.22 on that day.

FII outflow in June 2008 totaled Rs 10,095.80 crore (till 27 June 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 25,465.30 crore (till 27 June 2008).

There are a total of 1,403 FIIs registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

Trading Calls - July 1 2008

Nifty (4041) Sup 3960 Res 4105

Sell India Cements (137) SL 141 Target 131, 129

Sell HDFC (1964) SL 1985
Target 1925, 1915

Sell Maruti (616) SL 624
Target 600, 597

Buy FT (1681) SL 1660
Target 1730, 1750

Buy Raymond (226) SL 221
Target 236, 239

Drowning Street…avoid getting wet

Some people feel the rain. Others just get wet.

Few people may manage to enjoy the rain for now. While the monsoon may have brought some relief to all (including the embattled government), the bulls’ hopes of extending the 5-year rally remain washed out. The Indian stock market has been one of the worst performers in the first half (down 34%). We have China for company in this dubious club. In fact, it is even worse off with a negative return of 48%. The Dow in the US has lost 14.4% so far this year, and is on the brink of entering the official territory for bear market.

As we sit drenched mailing you this note, thanks to the heavy downpour in Mumbai, the factors behind this year's worldwide stock market rout have been already well articulated. What we would say (at the cost of repeating though) is that the current rough and tough time is unlikely to end soon. One should brace for some more downside (difficult to predict accurately), before things start looking up again. Some improvement is likely sometime either in the last quarter of 2008 or in the first half of next year.

For the day we could see the key indices opening on a cautious to slightly higher note. There is no clear trend emerging from the global markets at this point in time. Some markets are slightly down while some others are modestly up. Oil has cooled off to $140 per barrel after hitting $143.67 in electronic trading yesterday. However, this is still quite a bit high and only a drop to $100-110 levels will bring cheers to the stock markets.

What we also need is the FII outflows to turn into inflows, that too on a sustainable basis. Over the next few days, the market may remain sideways as most players will prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the results for the April-June quarter. Some of the effects from soaring costs, 13-year high inflation, rising interest rates and a slowing economy will be seen in India Inc's numbers. Having said that, any positive surprise may lead to a bounce.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs2.09bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday while the local institutions poured in Rs7.24bn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net sellers of Rs4.13bn. On Friday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs7.46bn in the cash segment. With this, they have pulled out more than $6.3bn from the Indian market this year.

Asian markets were mixed this morning but regional financial shares fell on concern that credit-market losses will widen after JPMorgan Chase said prices for some US mortgage securities may sink further.

Westpac Banking and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group paced declines by banks. Rio Tinto led materials shares higher, leaving the region's benchmark index little changed, after the world's third-largest mining company almost doubled prices for the iron ore it sells to Asian steelmakers.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1% to 136.62 as of 11:45 a.m. in Tokyo, after earlier gaining as much as 0.4%. An index of financial shares on the benchmark dropped 1%, extending its first-half loss of 19%.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.3% to 13,526.53, snapping an eight-day, 6.7% slump. The Tankan index of manufacturer sentiment fell to a four-year low in June, with companies expecting earnings to decline for the first time since the 2001 recession, the Bank of Japan said today.

The Kospi index fell 1% in South Korea, where the central bank said today inflation this year will accelerate to the fastest pace in a decade. Benchmarks declined elsewhere in the region, except Indonesia. Hong Kong and Thailand are closed for holidays.

US stocks struggled on Monday, with the blue chip indices ending nearly unchanged and the technology shares taking a beating. The main indices still ended with sharp losses for June and the second quarter, as surging crude oil prices and ailing financial firms continued to fuel concerns about the economy and profits.

It was the worst June for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the Great Depression on account of soaring oil prices and the financial sector mess. The Dow trimmed its monthly losses to 10.2%, still the biggest June loss for the 30-stock gauge since 1930.

The S&P 500 finished virtually flat at 1,280, paring its decline for June to 8.6%. The Dow added 3.5 points to 11,350.01. The Nasdaq lost 22.65 points, or 1%, to 2,292.98. Market breadth was mixed. Three stocks dropped for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Dow has now fallen 19.8% from its October 9 high of 14,165. It takes a 20% decline to be in bear-market market territory. The Dow lost 7.4% in the second quarter and 14.4% year to date. The S&P 500 slid 3.2% during the quarter, while the Nasdaq rose 0.6%.

The S&P 500 lost 8.6% in June, the worst monthly performance since September 2002 when it lost 11%, and the worst June performance since 1930, when it slumped 16.5%. During the month, 91% of the industries in the S&P 500 declined, with almost of them falling by 10% or more.

The Nasdaq fell 9.1% in June - the worst monthly performance since this past January - when it lost 9.9%, and the worst June since 2002, when it shed 9.4%. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 14.4%, the S&P 500 is down 12.8% and the Nasdaq is off 13.5%.

US light crude for August delivery reached a record high of $143.67 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before pulling back to settle at $140 a barrel, down 21 cents. The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas rose to a record $4.086 from $4.079 the previous day, according to AAA.

The Chicago PMI, a regional read on manufacturing, rose to 49.6 from 49.1 in the previous month, versus forecasts for a dip to 48. However, any reading below 50 indicates continued weakness in the sector.

In currency trading, the dollar was little changed versus the euro and fell versus the yen. In the bond market, Treasury prices were barely higher, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note at 3.96%. COMEX gold for August delivery fell $3 to settle at $928.30 an ounce.

European shares ended mixed in the final trading session of the June, but still logged their fourth quarterly decline. The French CAC 40 fell 0.65% to 4,397.32. Germany's DAX 30 lost 0.64% at 6,418.32. Meanwhile, the UK's FTSE 100 gained 1.74% at 5,625.90, helped by gains from the oil and mining sectors.

After starting off the July series on a negative note on Friday, it was a bad start to the new week as well. Markets continued its southward journey on back of global weakness and sky rocketing crude oil prices further adding to the rising inflationary pressure. Crude oil prices surged past the US$143/bbl mark hitting the record high of US$143.6/bbl.

The interest rate sensitive sectors were again badly hit, the BSE Realty index was down 6.8% and the BSE Bankex index was down 3.5%. However, bucking the negative trend were the BSE IT and the FMCG index which gained by 0.4% each in a falling market.

Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex lost 340 points to close at 13,461 and the Nifty index lost 96 points to close at 4,040.

Steel Strips ended flat at Rs123. The company, at its Extra ordinary General Meeting approved to offer, issue and allot optionally convertible bonds (0CB) to M/s Tata Capital Ltd, up to an amount of Rs200mn, by way of Preferential allotment. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs133 and a low of Rs122 and recorded volumes of over 5,000 shares on BSE.

Aban Offshore declined by over 3.5% to Rs2876 after the company announced that due to unforeseen circumstances not known at the time of agreeing the LOI, the letter of intent has been terminated. The rig has been mobilized to Singapore and the company is actively marketing the same.

Company made this announcement with reference to the earlier announcement dated May 12, 2008 regarding a Letter of intent from Husky Oil for a one well contract for the rig Murmanskaya. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs3051 and a low of Rs2830 and recorded volumes of over 73,000 shares on BSE.

India Cements slipped by over 6.5% to Rs137 after the company posted a net profit of Rs1044.40mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 (down 38.2%) where as the same was at Rs1691.40mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2007. Total Income is Rs10.106bn for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 where as the same was at Rs9.182bn for the quarter ended March 31, 2007.

The Group posted a net profit of Rs6415.70mn for the year ended March 31, 2008 where as the same was at Rs5749.50mn for the year ended March 31, 2007. Total Income is Rs36.172.30bn for the year ended March 31, 2008 where as the same was at Rs26.248bn for the year ended March 31, 2007. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs147 and a low of Rs133 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on BSE.

McNally Bharat slipped by 5% to Rs125. The company announced that it received an order from Mundra Port and Special Economic Zone Ltd, Ahmedabad for design engineering, manufacturing, supply, erection, commissioning and performance testing of 4 Nos. Rail Mounted Bucket Wheel Stacker reclaimer valued at Rs473mn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs134 and a low of Rs125 and recorded volumes of over 15,000 shares on BSE.

L&T lost 3.7% to Rs2183. The company announced that it received Rs15.57bn order for 2 x 800 MW Steam Turbine Generator package from APPDCL. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2308 and a low of Rs2165 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on BSE.

Deccan Chronicle surged by over 3.5% to Rs107 after the company posted a net profit after minority interest of Rs3036.50mn (up 83.7%) for the year ended March 31, 2008 as compared to Rs1652.60mn for the year ended March 31, 2007.

Total Income increased from Rs6220.30mn for the year ended March 31,2007 to Rs9343.40mn for the year ended March 31, 2008. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs117 and a low of Rs106 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.

Pratibha Industries slipped 3% to Rs212. The company announced that it secured a contract for construction of Mall Podium upto Ground Level from Lanco Hills Technology Park Pvt. Ltd. The value of the contract is Rs1.79bn.

The project involves 'construction of a Mall Podium of four basements upto ground level. The total constructed area shall be 15.22 sq. ft.'. The project is to be executed in 15 months. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs220 and a low of Rs205 and recorded volumes of over 3,000 shares on BSE.

NTPC will get Rs100bn from Power Finance Corporation (PFC) for funding its various projects for capacity addition. (ET)
ICICI Bank has decided to increase the floating rate for consumer loans and its benchmark advance rate by 75 basis points each. (BS)
HDFC has raised its minimum fixed and floating lending rates to 11% and 14% respectively. (BS)
SBI raises home and auto loan rates by 50bps. (ET)
Madras Cements has announced a 1:1 bonus issue and a 10 for 1 stock split. (BL)
Central Bank of India plans to raise Rs5-6bn in FY09 through a basket of products such as hybrid and subordinate bonds. (BS)
The Kenyan Government has favored a Libyan company ahead of Essar Oil for a 50% stake in a refinery project in Mombasa. (BS)
JSW Steel plans to invest Rs60bn in FY09 to acquire iron ore mines in the American and African continents and increase existing capacity. (BS)
Usha Martin and BHP Billiton have signed an agreement to set up a JV company to explore minerals in Jharkhand. (ET)
ICICI Bank’s contingent liabilities increased to Rs11.5tn in FY08 from Rs5.6tn in FY07. (ET)
Tata Motors and Ashok Leyland plan to hike prices by 2-3% and 3-4% respectively. (ET)
Titan Industries is aiming to become a billion dollar company by FY09. (ET)
Yes Bank has raised Rs3.64bn in a combination of upper tier II subordinated debt and hybrid tier I capital from Rabobank. (BL)
Sonke Pharmaceuticals and Cipla Medpro are among the six companies that have bagged a South African government tender for anti-retroviral drugs worth Rand3.5bn (Rs19.2bn). (BS)
Aban Offshore has terminated a Rs44.17bn contract with Husky Oil China. (DNA)
SAIL has signed a MoU with Shipping Corporation of India to promote a JV company for providing various shipping-related services to SAIL to import coking coal. (ET)
JSW Steel expects its bottomline to take a hit of Rs4.5-5bn in 2008-09, due to increasing input costs and a reduction in steel prices under government pressure. (ET)
Cipla has received product patents for new forms of two blockbuster drugs - Osemaprazole and Alendronate, from the Indian authorities. (ET)
SBI may have to set aside Rs10bn to cover depreciation of its treasury portfolio this fiscal. (DNA)
Indian Bank has waived a sum of Rs5.5bn, benefiting 281,090 farmers under the Central Government’s Agriculture Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme. (BL)
NDTV’s board has approved separating its news and entertainment businesses. (DNA)
Sun Pharma has launched a cash tender offer for all outstanding ordinary shares of Taro Pharma at US$7.75 per share. (ET)
Costlier raw material and tight credit conditions have slowed down cement companies’ Rs500bn expansion plan to add 80-90mn tons capacity in three years. (ET)
Future Group plans to expand its Big Bazaar stores to 150 by June 2009. (ET)
Apollo Hospitals plans to divest 49% stake to strategic investors in the pharmaceutical retailing business. (DNA)
The London stock exchange listed, Xchanging plans to acquire Cambridge Solutions in a deal valued close to US$250mn. (ET)
Kinetic Engineering will start supplying component for Tata Motors' small car project ‘Nano’ within the next two months. (ET)
Honda Motorcycles and Scooter India launched the CBF Stunner, its second 125cc model. (BS)
Honda Motorcycles and Scooters India says that it would not compete with its sister company, Hero Honda on volumes but by gaining recognition of its brand and customer satisfaction. (BL)
Gujarat Government has tied up with Adani and Essar for purchasing 3000 MW power at a fixed rate for a period of 26 years. (BS)
Department of Telecom is likely to ask Idea Cellular to submit its spectrum position at present along with that of Spice Communications. (ET)
Core Projects & Technologies plans to raise funds up to US$500mn from domestic and/or international market. (BS)
The RPG Group-promoted Spencer’s Retail would be entering into a joint venture with a US-based bakery café chain and setting up stand alone stores under its brand name. (BL)
GVK Group in consortium with BHP Billiton has emerged as provisional winner of seven deepwater blocks in NELP VII. (BL)
Lakshmi Mittal is looking at entering the takeover battle for the Rio Tinto mining group. (DNA)
Goldman Sachs is believed to be investing ~US$80mn in a JV with Dubai developer ETA to launch luxury Four Seasons hotel in Bangalore. (ET)
ArcelorMittal, plans to raise prices for car makers by about 60% owing to a spike in cost of raw materials. (ET)

OPEC - PC's idea doesn't work for us

Oil cartel OPEC on Monday rejected India's call for regulating crude prices through a price band, saying the market was the best judge and forecast prices climbing to USD 170 a barrel on summer demand in the US.

"Producing and consuming nations never agree on any price... They never agreed with (OPEC) price band (that operated between 2000 and 2005). Then we did away with the price band... We are never going to agree (on the price band)," OPEC president Chakib Khelil told reporters on the sidelines of the World Petroleum Congress here.

Stung by high oil prices driving inflation to 13-year high of 11.42 percent, Finance Minister P Chidambaram had, at a meeting of energy ministers in Jeddah last week, asked the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to operationalise a price band mechanism wherein crude prices move within a specified range.

The speculative premium has been put by New Delhi at USD 60 a barrel. Khelil, however, said: "We (should) let the oil market decide."

India has blamed speculators for the rise in crude prices that have touched an all time high of USD 142.99 a barrel, but western oil firms pinned it on demand-supply mismatch.

"I don't think you can blame the speculators for the high oil price," Jeroen van der Veer, chief executive officer of Europe's biggest oil producer Royal Dutch Shell Plc, said at the 19th WPC.

While maintaining that there was more than enough oil to meet global demand, Khelil said the pressure on Iran, the second-largest producer in the cartel, as well as a falling dollar may drive prices to USD 170 a barrel.

Today's Pick -Essar Oil

We recommend a sell in Essar Oil from a short-term perspective. From the charts of the Essar Oil, we see that it has been on a long-term down trend from its 52-week high of Rs 360 recorded in early January 2008. On June 30, the stock conclusively broke through the key support level at Rs 200 where the 200-day moving average is positioned and tumbled 11 per cent accompanied by above average volume.

The daily relative strength index is featuring in the bearish zone and the weekly RSI is on the brink of entering this zone. The daily moving average convergence and divergence is also declining and is featuring in the negative territory, reinforcing our bearish stance.

The long-term down trendline of the stock is intact. Considering the above bearish facts we are negative on the stock in the short-term and expect its decline to prolong until it hits our price target of Rs 158 in the upcoming trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 185.

Bullion metals register marginal drop

Gold and silver prices end second quarter with roughly 1% gains

Bullion metals ended lower on Monday, 30 June, 2008. Prices declined as the dollar strengthened against its rivals. Prices also gave up some gains after crude prices fell from their record highs. The increase in energy costs generally increase demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver prices also fell.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, a lower dollar pushes up precious metal prices as their demand lessens as it becomes cheaper for traders holding other currencies.

Comex Gold for August delivery fell $3 (0.32%) to close at $928.3 ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier, gold rose as much as 0.7% as record oil prices boosted demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Last week, on Thursday, 26 June, prices surged by more than 3.5%. That was the biggest percentage gain for a most-active contract since June, 2006. Last week gold prices ended higher by $27.6 (3.1%). On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped since then.

With today’s closing, gold prices ended June, 2008 with a gain of 4.1%. The yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. Last month, in May, it ended with a gain of higher by $22.5 (2.5%). Before May, for April, prices closed lower by 6.3%.

This year, gold prices have gained 10.8% till date against a 8% drop for the dollar against the euro. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%. In January, prices gained 11%, the highest monthly gain since April 2006. For February, it gained 6%. But in March, prices succumbed and fell by 5.5%.

On Monday, Comex silver futures for July delivery fell 20 cents (1.1%) to $17.51 an ounce. Silver has gained 17.4% in 2008 till date. For the second quarter, it gained a paltry 1.4%.

Silver prices ended the month of May 2008 with a gain of 2.7%. For April, it closed lower by 5.5%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. In January this year itself, prices climbed 14%. In February, it gained another 15%. For March, it ended lower by 13%. The metal had climbed 16% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years.

At the currency markets on Monday, the euro fell for the first time in five sessions and is headed for the first quarterly decline since September 2006. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, was last at 72.43, up from 72.306.

Last week, Federal Reserve yesterday sharpened its focus on inflation, saying that the upside risks to inflation have increased. Fed held its target for short-term interest rates steady at 2%.

Since last September, Fed has axed interest rates seven times and brought it down to 2%. On the other hand, the ECB has kept rates unchanged at 4% since June, 2007. Gold gained 38% from 17 Sept as the Fed slashed rates from 5.25%.

In the crude market on Monday, crude oil was little changed after rising to a record above $143 a barrel on concern Israel may attack Iran over its nuclear program and disrupt supply from OPEC's second-largest producer. Crude oil for August delivery fell 21 cents to settle at $140 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising to a record $143.67.

Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed higher by Rs 47 (0.4%) at Rs 12,879 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 12,996 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 12,761 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for July delivery closed Rs 314 (1.3%) lower at Rs 24,260/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 24,570/kg and fell to a low of Rs 24,140/Kg during the day’s trading.

Crude prices fall from all time highs

Prices end lower as the dollar gains some ground

Crude futures fell from their record highs at $143 today, Monday, 30 June, 2008 and ended little lower for the day. Prices slipped on concern that Israel may attack Iran over its nuclear program and disrupt supply from OPEC's second-largest producer. With this, prices infact rose for the day but then with the dollar gaining some grounds, oil prices slipped.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for August delivery today closed at $140/barrel (lower by $0.21/barrel or 0.15%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. During intra day trading prices touched a high of $143.67. With today’s closing, crude prices gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. It ended June 2008 higher by 9.9%. Last week, crude prices closed higher by 3.6%. Prices are 104% higher than a year ago. For the year, crude is up by 43% till date.

Supported by tensions in the Middle East, concerns about Nigerian production and ongoing talk about U.S. government control over speculative trading in the commodities markets, crude prices rose earlier in the day. But then, prices fell as the dollar strengthened. It was reported during the weekend that the U.S. has stepped up the pace of covert action taken inside Iranian territory.

At the currency markets on Monday, the euro fell for the first time in five sessions and is headed for the first quarterly decline since September 2006. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, was last at 72.43, up from 72.306.

Natural gas futures in New York advanced to the highest in more than two years on speculation rising temperatures and tropical storms may limit supply gains later this summer. Natural gas for August delivery rose 15.5 cents (1.2%) to settle at $13.353 per million British thermal units.

Against this backdrop, prices for July reformulated closed almost flat at $3.5015 a gallon on Nymex. Front-month contract prices are up over 41% year-to-date. July heating oil rose 0.4 cent to end at $3.9029 a gallon, with futures prices 47.6% higher than the end of last year. The July contracts expired at the close of today’s trading. August reformulated gasoline closed the session up 1.8 cent at $3.4991, while August heating oil added 2.3 cents to finish at $3.91.

Brent crude oil for June settlement today fell $0.48 (0.3%) to $139.83 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The London benchmark rose 54% in FY 2007, the most since 1999 when prices more than doubled.

At the MCX, crude oil for July delivery closed at Rs 6,078/barrel, higher by Rs 38 (0.62%) against previous day’s close. Natural gas for July delivery closed at Rs 573.8/mmbtu, higher by Rs 5.4/mmbtu (0.95%).