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Thursday, August 16, 2007
IVR Prime futures settle at discount on debut
NSE F&O turnover surges
The Nifty August 2007 futures settled at 4,144.95, a discount of 33.65 point as compared to spot closing of 4,178.60.
The NSE F&O turnover surged to Rs 46,447.41 crore as compared to Rs 28,493.98 crore on Tuesday, 14 August 2007.
Prior to this, the NSE F&O turnover declined for the fourth straight day on 14 August 2007 to Rs 28,493.98 crore. It was Rs 31,627.64 crore on 13 August 2007, Rs 55,930.24 crore on 10 August 2007 and Rs 48,868.82 crore on 9 August 2007 respectively.
Reliance Industries August 2007 futures settled at a premium, at 1738.55, compared to the spot closing of Rs 1733.95. It was the top traded counter with turnover of Rs 1246.27 crore.
IVR Prime Urban Developers August 2007 futures settled at 416.90, a premium as compared to spot closing of Rs 414 on its debut. 7625 contracts were traded on the underlying, which has lot size of 400 shares.
GMR Infrastructures August 2007 futures settled at a premium, at 762.15, compared to the spot closing of Rs 760.30.
SBI August 2007 futures settled at a premium, at 1524.95, compared to the spot closing of Rs 1519.
Reliance Capital August 2007 futures settled at slight premium, at 1018, compared to the spot closing of Rs 1012
In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 191.60 points or 4.38% at 4,178.60.
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala - Insights, Recommendations
Even super bull Rakesh Jhunjhunwala says he believes that the next few months will be tough for Indian markets.
In a recent presentation to the students of IIT Mumbai, he approvingly quotes former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan saying that “history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low-risk premiums.” He says the impact of the current credit crisis in the US will lead to a slowdown in the US economy, and that is bound to affect world equity markets. But the pain in India is likely to last for only a short time. “India may benefit,” argues Jhunjhunwala, “but only after an intermittent transition period.”
What’s the basis for this upbeat view?
The presentation lists all the usual reasons: a large pool of skilled people, favourable demographics, domestic consumption-led growth, increased productivity, and so on. But it does give a couple of other reasons that aren’t often cited, such as the fact that the corporate sector will grow faster than the unorganized sector. That implies there is plenty of space for companies to grow, as they muscle into space vacated by the unorganized sector. The withdrawal of reservations for small scale industry is a case in point—it may result in the closing down of small firms, but it will also benefit the larger companies.
But the crux of Jhunjhunwala’s argument lies in the “significant potential” of “rising savings, yet low equity ownership” of the typical Indian household. The percentage of savings to GDP is forecast to rise from 30% in 2007 to 33% by 2011. The proportion of financial savings within overall savings will also rise—from 17.3% of GDP in 2007 to 20% by 2011. Moreover, investment in equities, debentures and mutual funds will rise from 3.8% of financial savings to 15% by 2011. This trend, coupled with increased FII inflows, will lead to a quantum jump in the amount of funds entering the market, from $13.9 billion (Rs56,573 crore) in 2007 to $64.9 billion by 2011.
Is all this the stuff of which bulls’ dreams are made?
Well, the Central Statistical Organization data show that the percentage of gross savings to GDP is already well above the estimates given in the presentation and it is expected to rise to 35% in fiscal year 2008. But forget the detailed numbers—the point that savings are rising, and that the proportion of savings invested in equities is also likely to rise is well taken. In 1994, the proportion of household savings flowing into equities/debentures/mutual funds amounted to a high 13.5% of total financial savings.
The question is, what will it take for those glory days to return?
The most critical factor is the continuation of the bull run. The surge in equities in the last four years has led to some investors returning to the market and the proportion of household money invested in equities is probably understated, given the popularity of the ULIP (unit linked insurance plans) schemes of the insurance companies, which are not included in the official figures of household savings flowing to equities.
In the long run, a rising allocation of household savings to equities does hold the potential to expand price-earnings multiples in the Indian markets, just as it has done in the Chinese.
Mutual fund inflows
After two lacklustre months, inflows into growth funds picked up in the months of June and July. The last two months have seen net inflows of over Rs3,200 crore, on the back of new fund offerings worth Rs7,600 crore. In these months, net inflows into growth funds are almost back at the level they were during February and March. That’s a contrast to the situation in April and May, when equity funds had net outflows of Rs145 crore, thanks to the correction in the markets in February-March. Mutual fund investors now appear to have laid those fears aside. But fund managers still seem to be exercising caution with the deployment of the newly acquired funds.
According to data released by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), mutual funds have been net buyers worth only Rs200 crore since June. They made net sales worth Rs900 crore in July, when the markets reached new peaks. This month has been much better, with net purchases of Rs400 crore in the first two weeks.
What’s important to note is that new fund offerings continue to spur net inflows into equity funds. The irony is that much of the flows into new schemes have been because of sales of existing schemes. Existing schemes saw net outflows of Rs7,300 crore since April. While much has been written about this practice by mutual fund agents to earn higher fees, it’s high time Sebi did something to put an end to it.
NOTE: You can find this presentation on this site
We will import more oil
India’s dependency on oil imports is likely increase to about 85% by 2012 from the current level of 70%, driven by the rising demand for energy, industry body Assocham said on 16 August.
This despite “refining capacity in India poised to increase by 58% to touch 235 million tonnes in the next five years... in view of the growing demand for energy with little resources at its disposal for harnessing alternative sources,” the chamber said in a statement.
A chamber paper on ‘Future Imperatives of Crude Oil Scenario’ shows that India’s dependence on crude oil import would rise, as domestic discoveries have not been taking place, to touch the level of 12-13% compared to 7-8% at present.
Even in case of the alternative sources of energy, which is available in abundance in India, their harnessing is again becoming a problem, the statement added.
It said even projects that are likely to be commissioned during 11th plan by companies such as Reliance Petroleum, Indian Oil Corporation, HPCL and BPCL would employ higher imports of crude oil, if domestic crude oil production continues to languish.
However, the chamber is of the view that the higher crude oil imports would not impact the trade deficit adversely as most of the addition in the new capacities are aimed at exporting value added products.
During financial year 2005, India exports of petroleum products recorded a growth of 96%, while in 2006, petroleum, oil and lubricant worth $11.5 billion were exported, registering a growth of 65%.
Hedge fund ...
Dear investor,
We'd like to take this opportunity to update you on the recent performance of our hedge fund, Short-Term Capital Mismanagement LLP.
As you know, market selection for the entire fund is guided by a proprietary investing tool we like to call ``a dartboard.'' Once the asset classes are decided, individual security selections are generated by digitizing our unique hexagonal cuboid models.
Unfortunately, it transpires that our hexagonal cuboids are not as unique as we thought. Hundreds of other hedge funds possess identical dice. The technical term for this is a ``crowded trade.'' You may also see it referred to as ``climbing on a bandwagon already headed for the wall.''
As our alpha generation collapses, our beta has turned negative, our delta hedging has gone toxic and, trust me, you do not want to hear about our gamma. We can't even find our epsilons in the dark with both hands.
You will appreciate that accurate pricing is essential for evaluating our investment strategies. This has proven to be extremely challenging in recent days. Previously, we have relied on Bob, the sales guy at Hokey-Cokey Bank. Bob assured us the securities were still worth 100 percent of face value, so everything was cool. Bob sold the collateralized debt obligations to us in the first place, so he knows what he's talking about.
Bob, however, appears to have had a nervous breakdown, judging by the maniacal laughter that greeted our requests for price verification this week. Our efforts to implement an in- house CDO valuation framework, using a technique the ancients knew as ``making things up,'' proved unsatisfactory.
Where's the Bid?
Currently, all of the portfolios we manage are undergoing a rigorous screening known as ``crossing our fingers and praying that we don't have to try and find a bid in the market.'' This is supplemented by a cross-market statistical analysis originally developed by the U.S. military called ``don't ask, don't tell.'' This ``unmarking-to-unmarket'' procedure has been the benchmark for the hedge-fund industry for the past, ooh, 72 hours.
We have, of course, been in touch with the rating companies to update our default-probability scenarios, particularly on the AAA rated investments we own. They recommended a forecasting method using stochastics to regress the drift-to-downgrade timescales for the past 100 years and throw them forward for the next five minutes. The technical term for this is ``induction,'' though those of you of a less quantitative bent may know it as ``guessing.''
AAA or Toast?
We are pleased to report that, contrary to what current market prices might suggest, all of our top-rated securities remain absolutely AAA. Provided, that is, the future performance of the underlying collateral is identical to its history. Otherwise, the rating companies say our investments are likely to be reclassified as ``toast.''
We have also been checking our back-up credit lines with our friends in the investment-banking world. As soon as they return our calls, we'll be able to update you on our emergency liquidity position. We are sure they are fine.
Some of you have written to us asking for your money back, citing clauses in the fund documentation called redemption rights. Frankly, we never expected you to actually read that prospectus, which came prepackaged when we bought the Microsoft Hedge-Fund Guy software. We certainly have no idea what all those long words mean.
We have filed your letters in a special drawer in the filing cabinet marked ``trash'' for now. Do you have any idea how much trouble you all would be in if we actually sold this stuff in the market today? At these crazy prices? Fuhgeddaboudit. You'll thank us later.
Not a Rescue
Speaking of crazy prices, we know you'll be thrilled to learn that we've invited a bunch of our rich pals into the fund to participate in this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. But this is not a rescue. Do not even think the word rescue. This is an opportunity. Not a rescue. An opportunity.
In fact, we think this is such a fantastic opportunity, we've agreed to forgo our usual management fee, and we'll only take half our usual slice of the profits. Provided there are any profits to slice. You, of course, are absolutely invited to participate in this offer by sending us yet more of your money on exactly the same revised terms as our rich pals.
Finally, a word for all of you who have been kind enough to inquire about my personal financial situation. I am relieved to report that my directors and officers insurance is fully paid up. Furthermore, my Bentley Continental was paid out of the 2 percent fee we levied when you wrote your first check to us, so I will still be able to trundle into the parking lot each morning in an open-necked shirt to ignore your telephone calls and e-mails.
Yours, Hedge-Fund Guy.
Via Bloomberg
Domestic mutual funds buy!
FIIs' India sales offset; sub-prime fears continue to hit markets abroad.
Domestic institutions such as insurance companies and mutual funds are playing the role of market saviours at a time when foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are selling heavily.
Secondary market operations data (for the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange combined) show net sales by FIIs since July 26, when the markets started falling, stood at Rs 7,733.82 crore.
Domestic institutions, on the other hand, bought shares worth Rs 4,542.95 crore, which means they absorbed 60 per cent of FII sales.
In the last three months, domestic institutions have been placing big orders in the secondary market while FIIs continued to sell to cover for losses as a result of exposures in the US sub-prime mortgage market. It was only in July that FIIs bought around Rs 10,000 crore worth of stocks before starting to offload from July 27
n June this year, domestic institutional purchases were the highest this financial year at Rs 4,560 crore. But they neared that figure in just 13 trading sessions since July 26.
“In recent times, domestic institutions have been absorbing FII sales,” said Deven Choksey, MD, KRC Shares and Securities.
The head for institutional selling with a large domestic brokerage house reckons that Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) alone must have bought shares worth Rs 2,000 crore in the last three weeks and domestic mutual funds, over Rs 1,000 crore.
The rest was bought by other insurance companies and banks. Market sources said insurance companies were making big purchases for unit linked insurance policy equity schemes as well.
“We are buying from the markets but cannot divulge how much we bought,” said an LIC executive. A dealer with a fund house said domestic companies were buying fundamentally good shares at reasonable prices in a falling market.
Choksey believes “the short-term hot money” will go out of the market. The participatory notes crowd exit and that will cause the Indian market to suffer.
“We enjoyed the ride for the past four years, now we will feel a bit of pain. In the medium term, however, India will benefit and more stable money will come in.”
While FIIs may continue to sell, domestic mutual funds are sitting on a huge amount of cash. They had collected Rs 9,000-10,000 crore in the last two months, an investment banker said.
Market tumbles over 600 points
Even as India celebrated 60 years of independence on Wednesday, the stock market's dependence on global markets was clearly seen a day later. Pressured by heavy selling across the world, equities opened sharply lower on Thursday.
“The market is strictly following global equities. If US stocks bounce back tonight (Thursday), our market will do the same tomorrow (Friday). If not, we should expect a further cut,” said Sandeep Wagle, chief technical analyst at Angel Stock Broking.
The Sensex lost over 600 points and Nifty nearly 200 points in Thursday's session, with metal, banking and realty stocks worst hit.
Index heavyweights Tata Steel (down 10.34%), Bharti Airtel (6.97%), State Bank of India (5.78%), Hindalco Industries (5.62%) and Reliance Communications (5.55%) bore the brunt of the fall.
Second line stocks were hit comparatively less. The BSE Mid-cap Index lost 3.21% while CNX Mid-cap Index shed 3.94%.
National Stock Exchange's Nifty closed at 4178.6, down 192 points or 4.38%. The index touched a low of 4171.15 intra day. The high was 4366.
Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex finished down 643 points or 4.28% at 14,358.21, making a low of 14,345.03 and high of 14,584.92.
Market breadth showed 1,858 declines against 848 advances on BSE. On NSE, loser numbered 1,010 and gainers 144.
“14500-14600 are very crucial levels to watch. If broken, the index will rise to 15200-15300 levels. If it breaks on the downside, we could be looking at 13700-13800 levels,” Wagle said.
“The volumes (at Rs 11,791.28 crore) today are a cause for concern,” said Wagle.
In the derivatives segment, Nifty August futures ended at 33-point discount to the spot. Open interest stood at 4.57 crore, with turnover at Rs 16,795.66 crore.
Wagle advises traders to sell on every rally and long-term investors to buy on every dip.
Grey Market Premium - Zylog, Purvankara, Take Solutions, Refex, Motilal Oswal
Notice that the premiums have come down quite a bit - in case of Zylog
Zylog - Rs 230.
Central Bank - Rs 35.
SEL - Nil.
Asian Granito India - Rs 5.
Refex - Rs 6.
Puravankara - Nil.
Take Solutions - Rs 310.
KPR Mills - Nil.
Motilal Oswal - Rs 260.
Market Close: Debacle..Made is US !
Market across the globe had a blood bath. Subprime worries meltdown the market. Hang Seng closed down by 703 points, Nikkei ended down by 327 points. India was no different. The indices opened with huge gap and continued the southbound trend. This was the biggest single day fall since May 18th 2006. No counter was left untouched from the fall. Sentiments have hit investors badly across the globe and confidence seems to be missing. Metals, Realty, Banking and Capital Goods were the worst hit.
We believe that the market is all about greed and fear. There was greed couple of weeks back and now there is fear stalking on the street. There are some who believe that this time its different but really.. even we dont know and expect only time to tell us that..But for now market seem downward biased.
Sensex closed down by 643 points at 14358.21. Weighing on the Sensex are losses in TISCO (575.35,-10 percent), Bharti Tele (800.85,-7 percent), SBI (1521.6,-6 percent), Hindalco (145.3,-6 percent) and RCVL (495.4,-6 percent). Losses are restricted by gains in .
To curb the increasing cement prices?the Government mandated Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation (MMTC) to import cement without Bureau of Indian Standard (BIS) certification. The exemption to import cement (by MMTC) without standard mark certification will be valid for 150 days from the date of recording of applications or till the grant of regular license by BIS to the manufacturer. The Government had earlier abolished import duty and withdrew countervailing and special additional customs duties to facilitate imports and control cement prices. Now everyone eyes Pakistan for imports. It has capacity of around 34 mn tonnes per annum and is set to increase it to 40 mn tones pa by April 2008. The prices in north has been reduced by around Rs 1 to Rs 2 per bag. The major players in north India are Shree Cement, Gujarat Ambuja, Binani Cement, JK Lakshmi and ACC. Though it does not impact directly, its sentiment which impacts stock and thats likely to be negative. However import from Pakistan will be very less. The companies in south will be safe and sound. The major players in south are India Cement, Madras Cement and Kesoram.
Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and Posco, Korea's steel company signed a MoU for co-operating in a wide range of strategic business and commercial interest areas. As per the MoU the partners will share info for corporate strategy planning, share and exchange of engineers, technicians and know-how and expertise in the areas of development of mines and business practices and joint usage of each other's existing marketing and warehousing network, co-ordination in procurement of coking coal, nickel and ferro-alloys and engagement of transportation vessels. The stock was up ahead of this announcement but really the key now is whether steel prices will remain strong. With a weak US economy, its unlikely that steel prices will stay where they are. Better to take profits here.
Technically Speaking: It was a bear session for the whole day. Sensex opened in a deep gap of 500 points and selling pressure was witnessed through out the day. Sensex touched intraday high of 14585 and low of 14345. Market turnover was good at Rs 5291 cr. Overall breadth was in favor of Declines, whereas the Advances to Declines ratio stood at 1:2. Sensex is clearly heading for 13870, pullbacks upto 14600 - 14700 are quite possible.
Global meltdown leads to market crash
A sell-off in Asian markets followed by European markets sent the Sensex tumbling over 600 points for the day. The market opened in the red at 14,585, down 416 points tracking the sharp fall in the US and Asian indices and touched the day's low of 14,345 on relentless selling in banking, metal and capital goods stocks. The banking index closed 5% down as investors turned negative on the financial sector amid fears of global credit squeeze. The Sensex dropped over 10% from the record 15,869 hit on July 24 with foreign funds dumping about $700 million of local stocks in August. The Sensex finally closed with a loss of 4.28% or 643 points at 14,358. The Nifty shed 4.38% or 192 points to close at 4,179.
The market breadth was extremely negative, with the losers outnumbering the gainers in the ratio of 2.19:1. Of the 2,751 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,869 stocks declined, 842 stocks advanced and 40 stocks ended unchanged. All the sectoral indices were battered. Among the major losers-- the BSE Metal index lost 6.51%, the BSE Bankex index dropped 5.42%, the BSE Realty shed 5.56%, the BSE CG index declined by 4.43% and the BSE Oil & Gas index fell 4.37%.
None of the Sensex stocks closed in the green. Among the major losers Tata Steel plummeted by 10.34% at Rs575, Bharti Airtel tanked by 6.63% at Rs801, SBI dropped 5.78% at Rs1,522, Hindalco slumped 5.62% at Rs145, Reliance Communication crumbled by 5.55% at Rs495, ICICI Bank shed 5.17% at Rs832 and Reliance Industries slipped 5.06% at Rs1,739. BHEL at Rs1,602, Reliance Energy at Rs717, HDFC Bank at Rs1,094, L&T at Rs2,319, ONGC at Rs819, ITC at Rs158 and Tata Motors at Rs663 shed over 4% each.
Metal stocks lost heavily. Sterlite tumbled by 8.22% at Rs558, Welspun Gujrat shed 7.27% at Rs225, Shree Precoated Steels lost 5.87% at Rs291 and Hindalco declined by 5.62% at Rs145. The banking counters, too, bore the brunt and fell sharply. Union Bank, Bank Of India, Indian Overseas Bank, Bank Of Baroda, Kotak Bank, Oriental Bank, Canara Bank and Axis Bank shed 6-10% each.
Over 3.12 crore Nagarjuna Fertilisers shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Centurain Bank of Punjab (2.23 crore shares), IKF Technologies (1.43 crore shares), IFCI (1.42 crore shares) and Bella Steel (1.28 crore shares).
IVR Prime Urban Developers was the most actively traded counter on the BSE and registered a turnover of Rs328 crore followed by Reliance Industries (Rs201 crore), Tata Steel (Rs154 crore), DLF (Rs150 crore) and Reliance capital (Rs116 crore).
Sensex suffers second biggest point fall
Domestic markets suffered sever setback today, 16 August 2007, and settled near day’s low on intense selling pressure throughout the day. Earlier today, the market opened on a extremely bearish note following weak global cues. The turnover was high today.
The Japanese yen appreciated sharply against the US dollar today, and was hovering at 114 level, due to unwinding of yen carry trade.
All the sectoral indices on BSE settled with losses. All the Asian and European markets were gripped by intense selling pressure.
Back home, the BSE 30-share Sensex slumped 642.70 points or 4.28% at 14,358.21, the second biggest point fall in a day. The Sensex opened with a sharp 416-point downward gap at 14,584.92 and slipped to touch a low of 14,345.03 at 15:22 IST.
Sensex oscillated 203.89 points between the day's low of 14,345.03 and high of 14,584.92
The S&P CNX Nifty lost 191.60 points or 4.38% at 4,178.60. The Nifty August 2007 futures were at 4144.95, a discount of 33.65 point as compared to spot closing
The Sensex’s biggest single day fall of 826 points had occurred on 18 May 2006. Fears that a possible change in taxation laws on sale of shares would raise tax-liability for FIIs had triggered sharp fall on that day when margin calls had accentuated the decline.
All the sectoral indices on BSE were trading lower. The BSE Auto index (down 3.11% to 4,662.17), BSE Oil & Gas index (down 4.37% to 7,504.59), BSE PSU index (down 3.93% to 6,729.50), BSE Capital Goods index (down 4.43% to 12,214.56), BSE Healthcare index (down 2.83% to 3,526.95) and BSE TECk index (down 3.80% to 3,535.42), all edged lower.
The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 5,291 crore as against Rs 4,232 crore on Tuesday, 14 August 2007. The NSE F&O turnover was Rs 46447.41 crore as compared to Rs 28493.98 crore on Tuesday, 14 August 2007
The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was weak as small-cap and mid-cap stocks came under selling pressure. However, the breadth had improved from opening trade. On BSE, 1866 shares declined as compared to 861 that advanced, while 42 remained unchanged.
The BSE Small-Cap Index slipped 2.95 to 7,797.26 while the BSE Mid-Cap Index declined 3.21% to 6,352.44
All the shares from the 30-member Sensex pack declined.
BSE metal index bore the highest brunt amongst the sectoral indices in the market mayhem today. It fell 6.51% or 717 points to 10,299. It touched a high of 10,690 and low of 10,273 during the day.
Tata Steel, the country’s largest private sector steel maker, plunged 10.24% to Rs 576 on 26.01 lakh shares. It was the top loser from the Sensex pack.
Other metal shares Sterlite Industries (down 8.21% to Rs 558.45), JSW Steel (down 5% to Rs 614) and Sail (down 2.41% to Rs 143.85) were not spared either.
Hindalco Industries, the country’s largest aluminium company, lost 5.60% to Rs 145.35. As per reports, it plans to become supplier to the car market. The Aditya Birla flagship, which also makes copper and owns mines, will soon make high-grade aluminium products for the body-in-white segment of cars as part of an integration process following its recent acquisition of Novelis.
Tata steel, Sterlite Industries and Hindalco Industries have weightages of 27.51%, 17.73% and 13.99% respectively in BSE Metal index. BSE Metal Index had declined 8.89% over the last one month to 14 August 2007.
IT pivotals recovered from their lows as the Indian rupee fell to its weakest in two months as global funds sold emerging-market assets as losses from subprime loans in the US deepened. The Indian rupee was quoted at 41.17 per unit of US dollar. It had closed at 40.76 on Tuesday, 14 August 2007. The BSE IT index declined the least among the sectoral indices on BSE. It lost 2.61% to 4,637.13
Though Satyam Computers (down 1.47% to Rs 469), Infosys Technologies (down 1.65% to Rs 1922) and Wipro (down 2.73% to Rs 468), were trading lower, they had recovered sharply from their low. A rise in the rupee adversely affects the margin of IT companies. Hence, any signs of the rupee weakening boosts IT stocks.
Telecom shares were off-loaded. Mahanagar Telephone Nigam (MTNL) lost 5.20% to Rs 134.95 on reports that it has joined the race to pick up a 51% stake in Telkom Kenya. The other Indian listed players who are learnt to be bidding for a majority stake in the Kenyan government controlled company include Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications
Bharti Airtel plunged 6.97% to Rs 798 and Reliance Communications lost 5.75% to Rs 494.35
India’s biggest power generation firm by sales National Thermal Power Corporation shed 3.21% to Rs 167.20. The Union Ministry of Coal has granted in-principle approval for allocation of a new coal block, Chhati Bariatu South, to NTPC. This will help the company's efforts to secure long-term supplies of coal.
India’s biggest private sector entity and oil refiner Reliance Industries lost 5.40% to Rs 1732.90 on 11.52 lakh shares. As per reports, the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC) has endorsed the gas price discovered by RIL by inviting bids from large consumers in the domestic market. RIL will also benefit from the government’s recent decision to impose anti-dumping duty of $545.22 (about Rs 22,000) per tonne on import of partially oriented yarn (POY) from China.
Ranbaxy Laboratories lost 3.56% to Rs 30.50 on reports that Europe’s third-biggest drugmaker Novartis has sued the company to block sale of a blood-pressure medicine Diovan, in the United States.
ACC (down 0.57% to Rs 984.70), Dr Reddy’s Laboratories (down 1.49% to Rs 628), and Hindustan Unilever (down 2% to Rs 196) outperformed the market.
BSE Realty index was the second worst performer among sectoral indices on BSE today. It slumped 5.56% or 410 points to 6980.08. Realty majors Unitech (down 8.06% to Rs 466.40), Indiabulls Real Estate (down 6.23% to Rs 458.95) and Sobha Developers (down 6.13% to Rs 741), edged lower.
Housing Development and Infrastructure declined 7.50% to Rs 504. As per reports, it has tied up with Lehman Brothers to bid for the redevelopment of Asia’s largest slum, Dharavi. The project is expected to generate close to Rs 25000 crore in revenue for the Maharashtra government.
Parsvnath Developers slumped 9.36% to Rs 299.80. Its board approved private placement of non-convertible debentures worth Rs 300 crore.
The third biggest fall was seen in Bankex which lost 5.42% or 424 points to 7,421, due to credit related problems globally. Banking heavyweights ICICI bank (down 5.17% to Rs 832.30), State Bank Of India (down 5.78% to Rs 1521.60) and HDFC Bank (4.62% to Rs 1094) declined.
Gabriel India (up 21.25% to Rs 31.10), English India Clays (up 20% to Rs 576), Jindal Hotels (up 19.91% to Rs 53.90), Titagarh Industries (up 14.92% to Rs 41.20), LML (up 9.93% to Rs 14.28), and DIL (up 7.96% to Rs 297) were the top gainers from the small-cap and mid-cap basket.
IVRCL Infrastructures (down 11.96% to Rs 333), Shakti Pumps (down 11.17% to Rs 132.40), Omnitech Solutions (down 10.30% to Rs 147.60), Petron Engineering (down 9.68% to Rs 199.20), and Orbit Corporation (down 9.89% to Rs 443.65) were the top losers from the small-cap and mid-cap basket.
IVR Prime Urban Developers settled at Rs 418.15 on BSE, a discount of 23.97% over the IPO price of Rs 550. The IVR scrip debuted at Rs 500. It touched a high of Rs 500 and a low of Rs 388. On BSE, 76.38 lakh shares of the scrip were traded. The IVR Prime Urban Developers IPO ended on 26 July 2007 with 5.75 times subscription. The stock also debuted in the NSE futures & options (F&O) segment today with lot size of 400 shares.
Kernex Microsystems India jumped 5% to Rs 312.20. On 10 August 2007, the company said it had executed a service contract with Konkan Railway Corporation, Mumbai, for providing operational maintenance and annual maintenance contract services for the anti-collision systems. The estimated amount of contract for operation and maintenance of ACD systems will be about Rs 28.50 crore.
Sical Logistics lost 6.85% to Rs 225.15. It acquired a cutter section dredger for $24.92 million to expand operations in the global offshore market. The dredger will be deployed in the Chinese dredging market, and is estimated to earn revenue of about $9.8 million annually.
Engineers India declined 2% to Rs 453 despite winning an order worth $27 million from Abu Dhabi Polymers Company, Abu Dhabi, to manage construction of petrochemical complex in Abu Dhabi. The company made this announcement after market hours on Tuesday 14 August 2007.
Realty major DLF was down 2.70% to Rs 587 in spite of reports of its imminent purchase of DCM Shriram Consolidated’s mill land in Delhi for Rs 1600 crore. As per reports, DLF is set to buy about 38 acres of land in New Delhi for more than Rs 1600 crore. The deal to buy Swatantra Bharat Mills from DCM Shriram Consolidated, about 4-5 km from Delhi's central business district will be the largest private sector land deal in the country.
DCM Shriram Consolidated slipped 1.92% to Rs 84.20, after hitting a high of Rs 90.10
Ispat Industries gained 5.48% to Rs 14.82 on media reports that it plans to invest about Rs 10,000 crore within five years to ramp up domestic production. Ispat Industries is also planning to expand overseas through capacity expansion and backward integration.
Bongaigaon Refinery and Petrochemicals advanced 4.17% to Rs 57.50 as investors mopped up the stock due to attractive dividend yield. The company has declared dividend of Rs 3.50 per share and the stock continues to trade cum-dividend. At the current market price of Rs 57.50, the dividend yield works out to 6%. The stock becomes ex-dividend from 21 August 2007.
Industrial Development Bank of India was down 5.07% to Rs 118. As per reports, the bank aims to raise Rs 300 crore in debt in the current fiscal year.
Hindustan Copper jumped 5% to Rs 145.85. After market hours on Tuesday, 14 August 2007, the government sanctioned the financial restructuring proposal of the company approving conversion of non-plan loan of Rs 50 crore into equity and waiver of 7.5% non-cumulative redeemable preference shares amounting to Rs 180.73 crore. The company also approved reduction of face value of equity shares from existing Rs 10 to Rs 5 per share.
Birla Kennametal advanced 5% to Rs 273.60 after it scheduled a meeting of the board of directors on 22 August 2007 to consider 5-for 1 stock-split.
Federal-Mogul Goetze (India) plunged 7% to Rs 148 after the company revised downward the price band for its rights issue. Federal-Mogul Goetze (India) said on Tuesday, 14 August 2007, its board had revised the pricing of its rights issue to Rs 145-Rs 170 per share, from the earlier band of Rs 180-Rs 215.
Domestic stock markets remained closed on 15 August 2007 on account of Independence day.
All Asian indices declined today, 16 August 207, as investors concerned over the health of global credit markets continued to sell stocks across the board.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (down 3.29% at 20,672.39), Japan's Nikkei (down 1.99% at 16,149.49), Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted (down 4.56% to 8,201.37), Shanghai Composite (down 2.14% to 4,765.48), Singapore's Straits Times (down 3.70% to 3,152.16) and South Korea's Seoul Composite (down 6.93% to 1,691.98) edged lower.
US shares had tumbled yesterday, 15 August 2007, after the Federal Reserve added more cash to the banking system but failed to quash investors' jitters about problems in lending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 167.45 points, or 1.29%, to 12,861.47. Broader stock indicators also declined. The S&P 500 index dropped 19.84 points, or 1.39%, to 1,406.70. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 40.29 points, or 1.61%, to 2,458.83.
Meanwhile as per reports, the Income Tax Department is likely to scrutinise tax returns of over 700 top companies, which include A-group category companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange and NSE-500, to detect possible tax evasion. For the returns filed till 31 July 2007, the Income tax officers can serve the scrutiny notice any time on or before 31 July 2008. Reports further said that all stock brokers and commodity brokers as well as their sub-brokers earning Rs 1 crore or more in brokerage will also be brought under the scrutiny net.
India’s indirect tax receipts rose 11.6% to Rs 66417 crore in April-July 2007 on robust customs collections, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, 14 August 2007.
US oil prices slipped below $73 a barrel on Thursday, 16 August 2007, on signs a major storm brewing in the Atlantic might not endanger Gulf of Mexico oil platforms. US crude oil prices fell 52 cents to $72.81 a barrel. London Brent crude lost 56 cents to $71.08 a barrel.
Market may tumble on global meltdown
Domestic bourses are expected to correct sharply today, 16 August 2007, on weak global cues. Another cause for concern is the rally in yen against the US dollar. This may lead to unwinding of carry trade. Yen was hovering at 115.97 against the dollar today.
The BSE 30-share Sensex declined marginally by 16.30 points, or 0.11%, to 15,000.91, on 14 August 2007. The S&P CNX Nifty slipped 3.45 points, or 0.08%, to 4,370.20, on that day.
Stock markets remained closed on 15 August 2007, on account of Independence day.
All Asian indices declined today, 16 August 207 as investors concerned over the health of global credit markets continued to sell stocks across the board.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng (down 3% at 20,735.32), Japan's Nikkei (down 2.60% at 16,047.46), Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted (down 3.59% at 8,284.29), Singapore's Straits Times (down 3.96% at 3,143.59), South Korea's Seoul Composite (down 6.24% at 1,704.48) edged lower.
US shares had tumbled yesterday, 15 August 2007, after the Federal Reserve added more cash to the banking system but failed to quash investors' jitters about problems in lending. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 167.45 points, or 1.29%, to 12,861.47. Broader stock indicators also fell. The S&P 500 index dropped 19.84 points, or 1.39%, to 1,406.70. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 40.29 points, or 1.61%, to 2,458.83.
As per provisional data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 331.52 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers of shares worth Rs 308.94 crore on Tuesday, 14 August 2007.
US oil prices slipped below $73 a barrel on Thursday, 16 August 2007, on signs a major storm brewing in the Atlantic might not endanger Gulf of Mexico oil platforms. US crude oil prices fell 52 cents to $72.81 a barrel. London Brent crude lost 56 cents to $71.08 a barrel
Triple digit sell-off continues in Wall Street
Dow closes below 13,000 mark for the first time in four months
Another fresh round of credit worries plagued the US market today, Wednesday, 15 August, 2007, after shares of Countrywide Financial witnessed heavy selling, pushing Financial stocks to the wall. The Federal Reserve once again tried to comfort the situation by another fresh round of $7-billion liquidity injection through repurchase agreement. But stocks stumbled in the final hour of trading to end with a triple-digit sell-off.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, after being up by almost 90 points earlier in the day, dropped by a huge 167 points while going into close to end the day at 12,861.47. Tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 40.29 points to settle at 2,458. S&P 500 lost 19.84 points to end at 1406.7.
All but one of the 30 Dow stocks closed in the red today. General Motors, Honeywell and Alcoa led the team of Dow laggards for the day. Johnson & Johnson was the only Dow winner.
With today’s decline, Dow has lost almost 800 points (6%) in the last five days. Nasdaq, too, has shed almost 160 points (5.4%). A tame inflation data and a healthy manufacturing index, too, failed to curb any loss that the market witnessed today.
The stock of Countrywide Financial, the nation's biggest mortgage lender, was down as much as 20% today after Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock from "buy" to "sell." The stock closed lower by 13%. The stock also got hammered after it was reported that dealers were currently quoting the company’s commercial paper at 12.5%.
KKR Financial Holding announces sale of residential mortgage loans
When the market opened in the morning, all the three indices opened in red. Another round of negative developments in the credit market exacerbated credit concerns among investors whose sentiments had been hard hit since the past few days from mortgage problems.
To make situation worse, KKR Financial Holding announced the sale of $5.1 billion of residential mortgage loans, saying it will no longer invest in such assets and may need to record a charge of up to $200 million. Its stock fell 31%.
The Consumer Price Index report showed that consumer prices rose 0.1% in July 2007. The number was in line with economists' expectations and down slightly from the 0.2% rise in June 2007. The core number, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% last month, also in line.
Also, at the top of the hour, The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence fell to 22, from 24 in July 2007. That was also the second weakest reading since the survey's inception in 1985.
HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank slip by 4% to 6%
Among Indian ADRs, banking stocks were hard hit. HDFC Bank closed 4% lower too $79.56. ICICI Bank registered a greater loss and was down by 6.1% at $39.4. Technology stocks were not far behind. Infosys Technologies shed 3%. VSNL was the top loser, down 5.4% to close at $18.87.
On the New York Stock Exchange, volume hit nearly 2 billion shares, while declining issues outpaced advancers 3 to 1. On Nasdaq, 2 billion shares were traded, with decliners ahead of advancers more than 2 to 1.
H-P to declare its earnings report tomorrow
Crude oil futures finished higher today after traders became concerned about a couple of tropical storms that are expected to hit some oil sensitive regions. The Energy Department’s crude inventory report also added to the firming up of the crude price. Oil rose after the government report showed a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories last week.
Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for September delivery closed at $73.33/barrel (higher by $0.95/barrel or 1.31%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, too, crude had closed higher by 76 cents at $72.38/barrel.
Dow component H-P will be tomorrow morning's headliner as it comes out with its earnings report. Other than this, the market will focus on Housing Starts (the number of privately owned new homes on which construction has been started over some period) and Jobless Claims (how many people have filed for unemployment benefits in the previous week). Later in the day will be the Philadelphia Fed Survey, which focuses on the manufacturing sector and provides insight into commodity prices.
Weak Asian indices indicate a negative open
Unabated correction in overseas markets likely to keep the sentiment bearish. Major factors like FIIs continuing offloading in equities my also add pressure. Among the key indices, the Nifty may decline to 4300 while on the upside the index faces resistance in the 4400-4440 range. The Sensex has a likely support at 14700 and could test higher levels of 15140.
US indices tumbled on Wednesday, with the Dow industrials closing at a four-month low as Countrywide Financial revived worries about the credit and mortgage markets. While the Dow Jones declined 167 points at 12861, the Nasdaq dropped 40 points to close at 2459 on weakness in tech stocks.
All the Indian ADRs were battered on the US bourses. ICICI Bank tumbled 6.1% followed by VSNL, Satyam and HDFC Bank slipping over 4-5% each. Among the other major losers Infosys, Wipro, Tata Motors, Dr Reddy's and Patni computers plummeted 1-3% each. However MTNL bucked the trend and gained around 1%.
Crude oil prices moved up, with the Nymex light crude oil for September delivery gaining by 95 cents at $73.33 a barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for December series remained unchanged at $679.70 a troy ounce.
Morning Call - Aug 16 2007
Market Grape Wine :
In House :
Nifty at a supp of 4314 and 4250 levels with resistance at 4396 and 4439 levels .
Gap down opening expected of 400 to 500 points in Sensex .
Sell : Intraday SBIN below 1610 target 1575 s/l of 1625
Sell : Intraday RelCap : below 1114 with s/l of 1133
Be cautious and sell at every rise and reduce position .
Out House :
Markets at a support of 14235 & 14523 levels with resistance at 15015 & 14786 levels .
Blood Bath in the waiting with Global sell Off .
Buy with a view of 3 to 6 months horizon as markets to see selling at every rise .
Buy : SBIN at dips
Buy : RIL & RPL at dips
Buy : IDBI at dips
Buy : Titan at dips
Buy : HanunToys at dips
Buy : ITC & HLL at dips
Buy : ONGC at dips
Dark Horse : HLL , ITC , SBIN , ONGC , Gacl & INFY & RIL
No Trading Calls
With the markets around the globe sliding on US subprime worries and its wider fallout, we will desist from giving any intra-day calls. Traders should employ strict stop losses as the undertone is fairly weak. Aggressive buying should be strictly avoided, especially for the short term. At lower levels though long-term investors could look to pick up their favorite scrips.
No freedom from foreign rule!
The more I saw of foreign countries the more I loved my own.
Even as Indians around the world celebrated the 60 years of independence, global equity markets received a fresh bout of pounding.
With credit market worries continuing to linger, the Dow lost over 350 points in two days and slipped below 13,000 levels. The Dow is down more than 1,100 points, or over 8%, since hitting an all-time high above 14,000 almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is down over 9% since hitting its all-time high around the same time. The Nasdaq has fallen 9.6% from its 2007 high.
Markets have also slumped in other parts of the world amid mounting concerns over the wider ramifications of the subprime mortgage crisis in the US.
As a result, we will witness a gap down opening for sure. We would urge caution as the local sentiment is entirely at the mercy of global developments. This may continue for a while despite the strong fundamentals of the Indian economy and strong outlook for corporate earnings growth. FIIs continue to be net sellers, which will also affect the mood on the bourses.
Global subprime woes will weigh on real estate firm IVR Prime Urban Developers Ltd., whose shares are due to list on the bourses today.
US stocks plunged anew on Wednesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a four-month low as reports of more trouble for Countrywide Financial, America's biggest mortgage lender, revived worries about the credit and home loan markets.
Countrywide tumbled 13% after Merrill Lynch said it could face effective insolvency should creditors force it to sell assets at depressed prices.
The S&P 500 dropped for a third day, losing 19.84 points, or 1.4%, to 1,406.70. The Dow slumped 167.45 points, or 1.3%, to 12,861.47, sending the 30-stock blue chip benchmark below 13,000 for the first time since April. The Nasdaq Composite Index dived 40.29 points, or 1.6%, to 2,458.83.
Yields on three-month Treasury bills declined the most since 1989 as investors sought the safety of government debt. The dollar weakened to a four and a half month low against the yen as investors sold riskier assets funded by loans in Japan.
The benchmark index for US stock volatility, called the VIX, exceeded 30 for the first time since April 2003.
The July consumer price index (CPI) rose modestly, as expected, in terms of both overall and core inflation. The NY Empire State index, a regional manufacturing report, was stronger than expected. July industrial production and capacity utilization both increased, as did net foreign purchases.
US light crude oil for September delivery rose 95 cents to settle at $73.33 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, gaining after a weaker-than-expected weekly oil inventories report and amid worries about a tropical storm approaching the Texas coast.
COMEX gold for December delivery ended unchanged at $679.70 an ounce. Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the benchmark 10-year note yield at 4.71% from 4.72% late on Tuesday. In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and fell versus the yen.
European shares closed lower for the second straight day. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 0.2% to 365.73. The UK's FTSE 100 slipped 0.6% to 6,109.30 and the French CAC-40 gave up 0.7% at 5,442.72. The German DAX 30 bucked the trend to close up 0.3% at 7,445.90.
Stocks in Latin America slid on Wednesday. Brazil's Bovespa index fell 3.2% to 49,285.30, its first close under the 50,000-points level since May 2. Mexico's IPC index of 35 stocks shed 2.6% to 28,140.73, marking its second straight close under the 29,000 level. Chile's stock market was closed for a holiday.
Asian markets were down sharply this morning. Japanese stocks dropped to the lowest since November, led by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group on concern that the US subprime problem will derail growth in the world's largest economy.
Toyota Motor and other regional exporters dropped after the yen strengthened to the highest since March against the dollar.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 522 points at 15,953 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong was down 634 points at 20,741. The Kospi in Seoul was down 120 points at 1697 while the Straits Times in Singapore dropped 124 points to 3148 and the Taiex in Taiwan was down 268 points at 8324.
Markets ended on a flat note though managed to hold on to the 15kmark led by gains in the Index heavyweights like ONGC, Bharti Airtel and HDFC Bank. After opening on a flat note key indices were unable to take off, as it struggled for direction throughout the trading session. Volumes continued to drop as turnover in Cash segment fell 5.1% and in F&O segment declines 10%. Among the 30-scrip’s of Sensex 14 scrip’s were up and 16 scrip’s ended lower. Finally, the BSE 30-share Sensex closed flat at 15,000 and NSE Nifty also closed flat at 4370.
Bharti Airtel marginally gained by 0.5% to Rs856. According to reports the company is considering setting up a mobile-phone unit in Vietnam. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs861 and a low of Rs843 and recorded volumes of over 3,00,000 shares on NSE.
Cinevistaas was frozen at 5% upper circuit to Rs69.05 after the Board of Directors of the company announced that it would consider stock split on Aug 20. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs69.05 and a low of Rs67.40 and recorded volumes of over 58,000 shares on NSE.
Apar Industries was up by 1% to Rs223 after the company’s unit secured Rs1.3bn contract. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs235 and a low of Rs218 and recorded volumes of over 37,000 shares on NSE.
Ranbaxy edged lower by 0.3% to Rs373. Novartis AG, Europe's third-biggest drugmaker, sued the company to block U.S. sales of a generic version of the blood-pressure medicine Diovan. Ranbaxy, The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs380 and a low of Rs372 and recorded volumes of over 7,00,000 shares on NSE.
Advanta India rallied by over 11% to Rs882 after RBI announced that it allowed overseas Funds to buy 49% of the company. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs952 and a low of Rs800 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on NSE.
SBI was up by 0.2% to Rs1615. Reports stated that nation's biggest lender, could raise about Rs145bn selling shares later this year. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1636 and a low of Rs1604 and recorded volumes of over 12,00,000 shares on NSE.
Auto stocks were in reverse gear. Hero Honda slipped by 1.2%to Rs652, M&M was down by 1.5% to Rs678 and Maruti slipped by 1.1% to Rs823. However, Bajaj Auto was up by 0.3% to Rs2386.
Capital Good stocks also pared its gains on back of profit booking. Gammon India was down by 0.4% to Rs424, L&T slipped by 0.6% to Rs2420, BHEL dropped 1.3% to Rs1687 and Punj Lloyd slipped 0.4% to Rs270.
Realty index was the top gainers as the index was up by 1.19%. DLF advanced by 1% to Rs603, Unitech was up by 1.6% to Rs507, Akruti gained by 2.6% to Rs535.
Banking stocks gained momentum on back of fresh buying interest. HDFC Bank up by 1% to Rs1147, SBI gained by 0.2% to Rs1615 and ICICI Bank added 0.5% to Rs878. Bank of India, PNB and Syndicate Bank were the major gainer among the Mid-Cap stocks.
Consumer Durable stocks also were among the top gainers. Titan Industries rose over 2% to Rs1174, Videocon Industries was up by 3% to Rs379, Gitanjali Gems added 1.8% to Rs259.
Fund Activity:
FIIs were net sellers of Rs3.32bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Tuesday and the local institutions pumped in Rs3.09bn. In the F&O segment, FIIs were net buyers at Rs3.44mn. On Monday, foreign funds pulled out Rs5.2bn from the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers at Rs228mn on the same day.
Major Bulk Deals:
Fidelity MF has picked up Alembic while Macquaire Bank and HSBC Financial have sold it; Religare Securities has bought Alfa Transformers; Lotus Global has purchased Ankit Metal; Reliance Capital has bought Dredging Corporation while Merrill Lynch and Macquaire Bank have sold the stock; Lotus Global has sold IKF Tech; Prabhudas Liladhar has picked up Jindal Hotel; LIC has sold Kirloskar Electronics; Morgan Stanley has bought Pearl Fashion while Fidelity has sold the stock; Morgan Stanley has also picked up Praj Industries; JM Financial MF has sold Sujana Metal; Reliance MF has purchased Trent; Macquire Bank has sold UTV Software.
Lower Circuit:
Kalpataru Power, Action Finance and Anant Raj Industries.
Upper Circuit:
Assam Company, Atlanta, LML, Jai Corp, Tourism Finance, ETC Networks, Zuari Industries, Aarti Industries, Balasore Industries, Bil Care, ION Exchange, Genus Overseas and Diamond Cables.
Delivery Delight (Rising Price & Rising Delivery):
BPCL, Crompton Greaves, Cummins India, HCL Tech, Hindalco, IPCL and Jet Airways.
Abnormal Delivery:
BEML, Suzlon, Rolta, Alok Industries, Rajesh Exports, GTL and Greaves Cotton.
Major News & Announcements:
Apar Industries unit secures Rs1.3bn contract
Cinevistaas Board to consider stock split on Aug 20
Euro Ceramics Board to consider raising funds on Aug 18
Amara Raja Board approves expanding Industrial Battery unit
Petron Engineering gets contract for fired heaters
Sunil Hitech gets order worth Rs1.12bn
Sterlite Optical gets contract from BSNL
Pratibha Industries venture secures Rs1.38bn contract
EKC hires Origo Sino-India to expand in China
Solar Explosives gets Rs1.12bn order.
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