Koutons Retail India Limited

Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) - 66.3762 times

Non Institutional Investors - 18.8385 times

Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) - 14.8192 times

OVERALL -45.52 times

Consolidated Construction Consortium Limited

Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs) - 117.6797 times

Non Institutional Investors - 67.6202 times

Retail Individual Investors (RIIs) - 12.6906 times

OVERALL - 81.18 times

Post Market Commentary

The market surged to close the session on a positive note as BSE Sensex closed higher by 216.28 points at 16,564.23 and Nifty grew by 90 points to close at 4,837.55.The BSE mid cap and Small cap closed firm as it was up by 67.21 points and 19.23 points at 7,199.92 and 8,895.30 respectively.

BSE Metal index surged by 89.45 points to close at 12,812.76 as Jindal steel (9.66%), SAIL (2.80%), Jindal saw (1.01%), JSW steel (0.91%) and Tata steel (0.14%) closed in green.

BSE bankex index grew by 51.16 points to close at 8,739.84 as Oriental bank (4.62%), Union bank (3.30%), SBI (2.78%), Canara bank (1.15%), Allahabad bank (0.97%), Andhra bank (0.96%) closed higher.

BSE oil & gas index surged by 320.49 points to close at 9,340.05 as RPL (11.60%), Reliance industries (3.75%), GAIL India (3.67%), ONGC (1.98%), IOCL (1.56%) and Essar oil (0.56%) closed higher.

BSE Capital goods index advanced by 127.71 points to close at 14,520.17 as Areva (6.80%), ABB (2.07%), Punj Lloyd (2.07%), BHEL (1.22%), L&T (1.34%) and Siemens (0.88%) closed in positive.

BSE IT index closed higher by 37.59 points at 4,428.34 as Wipro (1.48%), TCS (1.41%), Infosys (1.23%), HCL tech (0.82%) and Finance tech (0.74%) closed higher.

BSE Health Care Index closed lower by 19.95 points at 3,654.24 as Glenmark (2.45%), Lupin (1.69%), Sun pharma (1.48%), Cipla (0.92%), Nicholas piramal (0.72%) and Ranbaxy (0.43%) closed in negative.

BSE FMCG index decreased by 12.72 points to close at 2,152.99 as Britannia (3.84%), Nestle (3.51%), Tata tea (2.54%) and ITC (1.60%) closed lower.

Weekly Close: Emerging hope for the world !

It was a completely ebulient week for the Markets. Starting off on a sombre note on worries globally as a European Bank shaking up the system. However the Bank of England brought in the first trigger coming out guaranteeing all bank deposits not only for this bank but also the others and that was followed by the much needed surprise by the Fed which cut by 50 basis points This shook off the worries and Markets latched on to their highest gains ever in absolute terms. The Markets were in a frenzy and there was a strong bout of short covering.

There were gains across board. The Oil and Gas was the biggest winner led by Reliance. Reliance Petro a refinery which is still over a year away led the Nifty to an all time high and Sensex crossing the 16000 levels with ease and more than that maintaining that level. The software stocks took it on the chin with most of the heavyweights hitting 52 week lows here. Pharma stocks were the other underperformers. Telecom had a great week and Banks rallied helped by SBI which has the merger as the value creating proposition. The Mid caps however were not as active. Overall the week witnessed huge volumes and that cold fuel further momentum next week.

Our Note on Economy indicated that the Markets were ready for a big move.. and it attempted to explain the reasons for the rally.

The trigger was provided by BOE (Bank of England) s guarantees and that explains largely the rally of the Indian Markets a day before the Fed cut. Also falling in place is the fact that the rally was only led by Nifty Index stocks. That flows will continue and we believe that the Index is what will benefit. China's global funds will also flow to India and that is another driver for the Index. India is the hot place. No doubt about that !

The Rupee hit 39.80 This is clearly on the back of strong FII flows since the and even more expected. The appreciating rupee is yet another reason for the FIIs to be aggressive.. Thats additional gains.

The RBI intervened during the week but really the flows are strong and the rupee has continued to strengthen. That is a reason for RBI not to intervene. There will be a slush of liquidity in the system. On one hand there are hopes of CRR cut and on the other hand the RBI intervention will infuse more liquidity. With crude at $ 84. RBIs hands are tied. We think in the current environment, the RBI is unlikely to cut CRR yet or even interest rates. i.e bank rate. Its true that the economy growth is slowing.. but its not fallen off so its more likely to be a wait and watch approach.

This is the strategy we put out this week... and it woudl have worked extremely well for those who had teh courage to follow it.

Strategy: Follow the liquidity
Nifty would be safest to try on.. but within that we can take a shy at the sectors for interest.

Banking: SBI, ICICI and PNB. There are other issues like value unlocking.. merger etc.. and the overall Basel II norms implementation. The Insurance plays will also excite. though lack of interest rate cut could temper some gains.
Cement: This is the pure domestic play and its in the sweetest spot ever in its lifetime. Capacity additions are expected to change the picture in next 18 months. However as per market expectations, India will see the "Arrangement" (read cartel) for prices as is there globally. Tough call whether that sort of arrangement is possible in India yet with 4-5 big players such as Holcim, Grasim, India Cement, Shree Cement, JP Group and others. India Cement, ACC, Shree should be interesting plays here.. but his picks were Birla Jute, Kesoram.
Telecom: Bharti, Rel Com, Idea ; Another sector where the growth continues..although the valuations concerns are cited more often. There are issues of number portability etc.. but the sector has been able to squeeze out best for itself till date.
Capital Goods and Engg: BHEL, Larsen, Reliance Energy The order books and business visibility remains ex: Tougher credit availability for the larger projects may be an issue.. but its the investment led plays in Infrastructure which will drive the interest here.
Real Estate: DLF, Unitech, Bombay Dyeing: With again slush of liquidity expected..the real estate stories may again find buyers.
Black Box : Reliance.. This company is the pillar really and this company seems to strike oil at quite regular intervals.

Two places where we have been proved wrong and we admit that. One is on direction of metals. The slowing global environment does not seem to impact them yet. They rallied as if the rate cut in US will do away with the slowdown. The other is crude prices.. which have continued only one way. Clearly with slowing economies, prices of metals should head down. Investment in capacities has been large and the greater possibiity is that we are over the top.

Sectors to avoid would be.
Software The sector continues to lag. The two problems of higher salary costs and an appreciating rupee is now bogged with a third one of possibly lengthening business cycles. One could argue, that cost cutting measures would bring in greater business.

Autos: These are interest rate sensitives and the hopes for a cut will drive them up. We are not too confident on this one but these have been big underperformers in a rising rate environment. If one has a view that the Interest rates will be cut soon, that would be the trigger for this sector but till consumer demand picks up they may be laggards.

Important to note that the above note attempts to analyse money flows and reasons. Its not about fundamentals. Fundamentals for the Index stocks are researched many times over. It has its own set of risks.. and fundamental changes.. could impact specific stock selection. Clearly as mentioned Nifty would be the safest way to play this liquidity. The risk to this would be the emergence of the political problem. That is another month away. Another global problem is likely to be digested easily now that the Central banks have thrown their hat in the ring.

We had lots of interesting indepth research. There was one on IPO of CCCl which we think was a good idea. There was research on Gitanjali Gems.. and another on Tulip IT and yet another on Shanti Gears .. More research will follow There were notes on Aftek which had one of investments fructifying. We were the first to analyse and put that out. The note on Bharat Fertiliser had the stock moving up in circuits. The story is a good one. Do read and take the benefit of that. It is completely balanced research.

Technically: Sensex target of 16600 was reached with aplomb . Nifty levels of 5000 are possible and thats where it could be headed. Nearer stoploss is at 16100 for the Sesnex. The more important one is at 15870.. seems a bit far but thats needed post such a rapid run up. Lower levels should be used as trading opportunities.

Fundamentally Speaking: the global worries have been taken care of and the negatives are much lesser. Only bigger worries are from valuations which have become even more expensive. May be it can be said that the actions taken have delayed the pain and when they impact it could be deep and longer lasting. However that will be when they come. The problems faced are more domestic and that is from Politics, Valuations and more importantly growth. Industry is slowing. However fundamentals matter less in the face of liquidity as indicated earlier. There will be good value picks and that is additional to the large caps which could be picked. Near term the expiry of September will lead to some volatility. Its possible that the Global markets may pull back pricing in the slowdown worries. Its going to be liquid driven markets and thats when Fundamentals take the back seat. So use the Technical indicators and enjoy the ride. !

Market continues its record rally

Rising crude oil prices and impending nuclear issue between the UPA government and CPI(M) ruled the investor’s sentiment in the early trades, and the Sensex witnessed a sharp volatility for better part of the session. Negative global cues led the Sensex to open flat, but heavy buying in oil, auto and cement stock propelled the Sensex to the its all-time high of 16,617. The wholesale price index (WPI) rose to 3.32% for the week ended September 8 which was lower than the previous week's increase of 3.52%. The lower WPI also helped the market sentiment to remain positive. The Sensex slipped marginally towards the close and ended the session with a gain of 1.32%, up 216 points at 16,564. The Nifty moved up by 1.90%, up 90 points to close at 4,838.

Surprisingly the breadth of the market was negative. Of the 2,843 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,629 stocks declined, 1,166 stocks advanced and 48 stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices, the BSE Oil & Gas index flared up by 3.55% followed by the BSE Teck index (up 1.62%), the BSE Realty index (up 1.54%), the BSE PSU index (up 1.28%) and the BSE Auto index (up 1.10%). However, the BSE FMCG index, the BSE HC index and the BSE CD index ended in the negative territory.

Most of the index stocks ended at higher levels. Reliance Industries was the day's star performer and shot up by 3.75% at Rs2,274. Among the other major gainers, Bharti Airtel surged 3.08% at Rs918, SBI vaulted by 2.78% at Rs1,808, Reliance Communication spurted 2.28% at Rs579, Reliance Energy jumped by 2.22% at Rs1,009, Grasim scaled up by 2.20% at Rs3,447, HUL advanced by 2.19% at Rs219, Maruti Udyog added 2.14% at Rs930 and ONGC rose 1.98% at Rs923. Among the laggards ITC slumped by 1.60% at Rs191, Hindalco dropped 1.36% at Rs160, while, Cipla, NTPC, Satyam Computers, Ranbaxy, ACC, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and Bajaj Auto slipped marginally.

Oil stocks were in limelight today. Reliance Petro vaulted by 11.60% at Rs155, Gail India soared 3.67% at Rs350, Cairns India added 1.83% at Rs178 and IOC advanced 1.56% at Rs406.

Over 9.52 crore Reliance Natural Resources shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Ambuja Cement (7.05 crore shares), Tata Teleservices (3.50 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (2.89 crore shares) and IFCI (2.05 crore shares).

Value wise, Ambuja Cement registered a turnover of Rs1,081 crore on the BSE followed by Reliance Natural Resources (Rs673 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs437 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs194 crore) and IFCI (Rs170 crore).

Market to consolidate after sharp surge

The market is expected to consolidate at higher levels as profit booking might emerge at higher levels after a sharp recent rally. From a recent low of 13,989.11 on 21 August 2007, the Sensex surged 2557.12 points or 18.27% to 16,564.23 on 21 September 2007, in just 23 trading sessions. The global rally was triggered after the US Federal Reserve announcing a higher than expected 50 basis points cut in fed funds rate to 4.75% from 5.25% on Tuesday, 18 September 2007, easing concerns about housing slump driving the world's largest economy into recession.

The market posted weekly gains for fifth straight week with the BSE Sensex surging 960.43 points or 6.16% to 16,564.23 for the week ended Friday, 21 September 2007. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 319.55 points or 7% at 4,837.55 during the week.

Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors' net inflow in the country crossed $10 billion so far in this year. FIIs made a net purchase worth about $10.5 billion in equity and debt markets since the beginning of 2007, topping the total net investment of $8.87 billion in the entire year 2006. Total FII inflow so far in the country is $61 billion.

The next trigger will come in the form of earnings for Q2 September 2007 from India Inc. Marketmen expect decent to strong results. The advance tax figures also support that view.

Meanwhile, the committee constituted by the government to look into Left front’s concerns over the Indo-US nuclear deal, will meet gain again on 5 October 2007.

Inflation has been under 4% which bodes well for the market

However on the flip side the sharp rally in crude oil prices which were hovering near $82 a barrel after hitting a record of $84.10 may remain a cause of concern.

Media Video, Pantaloon Retail (India), Deccan Aviation, and Suven Life Sciences will announce June 2007 quarter results next week.

Market scales new high on Fed move

The market started the week on negative note. It surged later amid global rally triggered by the US Federal Reserve announcing a larger-than-expected 50 basis points cut in fed funds rate to 4.75% from 5.25% on Tuesday, 18 September 2007. The move eased concerns about housing slump driving the world's largest economy into recession. Sensex advanced in 4 out of 5 trading sessions in the week.

BSE Sensex rose 960.43 points or 6.16% to 16,564.23 in the week ended Friday, 21 September 2007. Sensex hit an all time high of 16,616.84 on Friday.

The S&P CNX Nifty rose 319.55 points or 7% at 4,837.55 in the week. It hit an all time high of 4855.70 on Friday.

BSE Mid Cap rose 302.92 or 4.39% to 7,199.92 in the week. The BSE Small Cap index rose 322.54 points or 3.76% to 8,895.30 in the week.

The BSE Sensex lost 99.37 points or 0.64% at 15,504.43 on Monday, 17 September 2007. The market settled near the lowest point of the day, on fresh selling in late trade. The market had started the day on a firm note on buying interest in index pivotals. However it had lost ground in early afternoon trade with European markets which opened after Indian market, sliding in early trade.

The BSE Sensex advanced 164.69 points or 1.06% at 15,669.12 on Tuesday, 18 September 2007. The market surged in the second half of the trading session tracking recovery in European markets which started after Indian market. The market was range-bound in early afternoon trade. Asian markets were weak. With that rise, Sensex came out of its two-day loosing streak.

The 30-shares BSE Sensex surged 653.63 points or 4.17% at 16,322.75 on Wednesday, 19 September 2007. It was a record single day point rise in Sensex. The market soared to record closing with high turnover. It opened with a bang and kept on advancing during the course of the trading session as buying continued for index pivotals. Short covering also propelled the market higher to some extent. A global rally was triggered after the US Federal Reserve announcing a larger- than-expected 50 basis points cut in fed funds rate to 4.75% from 5.25% on Tuesday, 18 September 2007, easing concerns about housing slump driving the world's largest economy into recession.

The 30-shares BSE Sensex was up 25.20 points or 0.15% at 16,347.95 on Thursday, 20 September 2007. The market posted small gains after moving in and out of positive zone since mid-morning trade. It had opened on a firm note, but immediately slipped in the red on selling pressure. The market rebounded from lower level in mid-afternoon trade. Turnover on BSE remained high for the second day in a row. Most Asian markets, which opened before Indian markets, were firm. However European markets, which opened after Indian market, were subdued

Sensex surged 216.28 points or 1.32% at 16,564.23, an all time closing high, on Friday, 21 September 2007. The market surged towards the latter part of the trading session led heavy buying in index pivotals especially for Reliance group stocks. Both the niche indices BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty struck all time highs. IT pivotals bounced back after initial slide

India’s largest private sector entity by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 11.7% to Rs 2,274.40. It struck an all time high of Rs 2294. As per recent reports, RIL is foraying in shipbuilding and dredging business with two separate companies. As per another set of reports its subsidiary - Reliance Logistics (RLL) is planning to set up logistics parks within all the upcoming special economic zones (SEZs). The Reliance logistics parks will cater to the entire range of logistic requirements of the SEZs. RIL has reportedly paid Rs 650 crore in the June-September 2007 quarter. The tax outgo during the June-September period last year was about Rs 450 crore.

Bhel, the country’s largest power equipment maker in terms of sales rose 3.6% to Rs 1966.25. Bhel is reportedly looking at mergers and acquisition to fuel inorganic growth. Reports also suggest that the company is targeting a turnover of Rs 45,000 crore by 2012.

Bank and financial shares rallied on the reckoning that the Fed move could put pressure on RBI to loosen its monetary policy.

State Bank of India, the country’s largest banking entity by net profit jumped 9.39% to Rs 1,808.25. It topped the list of advance taxpayers, after it reportedly paid Rs 1,050 crore in the June-September 2007 quarter, which is nearly 50% more than the tax paid during the corresponding period last year.

India’s second largest bank by net profit, ICICI Bank jumped 6.4% to Rs 965.20. As per reports it paid Rs 450 crore advance tax for the June-September 2007 period. The bank had paid the same amount for the corresponding period last year.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, the country’s largest oil exploration company by revenue surged 10.7% to Rs 923.35 after its Chairman R.S. Sharma said the company may consider a bonus issue and a share split in the future. He did not give a time frame for bonus issue and stock-split.

Infosys Technologies, the nation’s second largest software services exporter lost 0.46% to Rs 1821.95, amid reports the firm is interested in acquiring UK-based Sage Group. Infosys has denied the reports further clarifying that it also isn't negotiating with Cap Gemini SA about buying any part of the company.

Maruti Suzuki India, the country’s top carmaker by sales vaulted 7.3% to Rs 929.55 on reports that company will set up an auto component park with Japan's Futuba Industrial Company. Maruti will hold a 49% stake in the joint venture. This will be Futuba’s first project outside Japan

India’s second largest cellular services provider by sales Reliance Communication, rose 6.6% to Rs 579.35 after its subsidiary Flag Telecom reportedly signed a five-year agreement with UK-based Vanco to increase its presence across 81 countries worldwide.

India’s top private sector utility company in terms of revenue Reliance Energy (REL) surged 14.3% to Rs 1009.60. As per reports, REL is scouting for coal mines in Indonesia, Australia, Africa and Mozambique and it sees infrastructure projects such as road and rail transport as key growth drivers. It also plans to raise $12.0-$12.5 billion in debt over the next seven to eight years to expand generation capacity nearly 16 times to 15,000 mega watt

India's largest engineering & construction firm by revenue Larsen & Toubro climbed 7.3% to Rs 2783.15 on reports that the company is eyeing a stake in Feedback Ventures, a leading integrated infrastructure services firm.

Magnum Ventures settled at Rs 48.70 on the BSE, a premium of 62.33% over the IPO price of Rs 30 on its debut on 20 September 2007. The scrip had debuted at Rs 36.95, a premium 23.16% over the IPO price of Rs 30.

Real estate firms like DLF (up 12.79% to Rs 749.85), Unitech (up 16.58% to Rs 329.15), Indiablls Real Estate ( up 13.88% to Rs 573.90) surged, on expectation of softer interest rates after US Federal Reserve cut the rate by half percentage point.

IT pivotals declined in the week on fresh selling as a steep interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on 18 September 2007, set the rupee on fire and it hit nine-year high above 40 per dollar on Thursday.

India’s third largest software services exporter Wipro lost 2.3% to Rs 439.90. Other IT pivotals Satyam Computers (down 2.7% to Rs 418.85), and TCS (down 0.75% to Rs 1014.95), also edged lower.

Sugar shares were star gainers during the week on frenzied buying after Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar said the government plans to give more fiscal incentives to sugar mills.

As per reports, sugar mills may be allowed to produce ethanol directly from cane juice, instead of molasses, to lower dependence on sugar prices.

BSE decided to add a total of 100 scrips to trade-to-trade segment with effect from Friday, 21 September 2007. The stocks transferred to trade-to-trade segment include ABG Heavy Industries, Aksh Optifibre, Birla VXL, Hindoostan Spg. & Wvg. Mills, JCT, Kinetic Motor, Tide Water Oil (India), Vishal Exports Overseas, APEEJAY TEA, DCM Shriram Industries and Yash Papers, among others.

According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asia's developing economies, the fastest growing nations in the world, will expand 8.3% in 2007 higher than the previous forecast of 7.6%. The ADB forecasts growth of 8.2% in 2008, up from an earlier prediction of 7.7%. The region grew 8.5% in 2006.

The government on Monday (17 September 2007) exempted four services used by exporters from service tax. These include port services provided for export, other port services provided for export, road transport services from inland container deport to port of export and rail transport services from inland container deport to port of export.

Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath while addressing the annual conference of United Planters' Association of Southern India (UPASI) in Tamil Nadu on Monday (17 September 2007) proposed an alternative to the duty entitlement passbook (DEPB) scheme. The new scheme is already in the final stages and will be announced soon.

Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) general secretary Prakash Karat has asked the government to put the Indo-US nuclear deal on hold for at least six months. Karat addressed a party rally against the deal in New Delhi on Tuesday (18 September 2007) demanding a full-fledged discussion on the Indo-US nuclear deal in Parliament before proceeding with it.

The Planning Commission estimated economic growth at 8.5-9% in FY 2008 amid a deceleration in industrial growth in July 2007. Deputy chairman of the commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia termed the slow growth in the second quarter as "moderation" rather than a slowdown.

National Stock Exchange (NSE) has decided to launch a new index comprising of 50 stocks from the mid-cap segment. The index will be called Nifty Midcap 50. The index will be launched from 25 September 2007. Nifty Midcap 50 index has a base date of 1 January 2004 and a base value of 1000, NSE said.

The committee constituted by the government to look into Left front’s concerns over the Indo-US nuclear deal, will meet gain again on 5 October 2007. The meeting will be held at 16:00 IST on 5 October 2007. The committee had its second meeting on 19 September 2007. The stalemate over the deal continued after the meeting held on 19 September 2007.

Sensex, Nifty strike new highs

The market surged towards the latter part of the trading session led heavy buying in index pivotals especially for Reliance group stocks. Total turnover on BSE jumped above the Rs 8000 crore mark. Both the niche indices BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty struck all time highs. IT pivotals bounced back after initial slide

Asian markets, which opened before Indian markets, settled on mixed note today, 21 September 2007. European markets, which opened after Indian markets, were in the green. US markets finished lower yesterday, 20 September 2007.

Inflation based on the wholesale-price-index rose 3.32% for the week ended 8 September 2007 as against 3.52% in the previous week.

The 30-shares BSE Sensex surged 216.28 points or 1.32% at 16,564.23, an all time closing high. It opened slightly higher at 16,308.09 and slipped to touch intra-day low of 16,308.09. From here it staged a solid rally to hit an all time high of 16,616.84 in late trade.

The market came off higher level in mid-morning trade. Before that it had recovered from lower level after it had slipped into the red in early trade.

From a recent low of 13,989.11 on 21 August 2007, the Sensex has surged 2557.12 points or 18.27% to 16,564.23, in just 23 trading days.

The S&P CNX Nifty surged up 90 points or 1.90% at 4,837.55, an all time closing high. The sharper surge in Nifty when compared to Sensex was due to rally in some of the non-Sensex constituents in the index. Nifty hit an all time high of 4,855.70. The Nifty September 2007 futures settled at 4863, a sharp premium of 25.45 points as compared to spot closing

A number of stocks are common in the two niche indices viz. 30-share BSE Sensex and 50-share Nifty. But Nifty being broader based index, it has more constituents and some of the Nifty constituents are not a part of Sensex.

The market breadth was negative on BSE with 1615 shares declining as compared to 1149 that advanced. 51 remained unchanged

The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 0.94% to 7,199.92 after hitting an all time high of 7,231.90. The BSE Small-Cap index gained 0.22% to 8,895.88, after hitting an all time high of 8,964.29. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex.

The total turnover on BSE surged above the Rs 8000 crore mark co. It amounted to Rs 8198 crore compared to Rs 7221 crore yesterday, 20 September 2007.

Four massive block deals of 1.62 crore shares each were struck on Ambuja Cements counter on BSE in opening trade. These deals were executed at an average rate of Rs 149.48 per share. Ambuja Cements was the top traded counter on BSE with total turnover of Rs 1053.05 crore. The scrip rose 1.95% to Rs 149 on huge volumes of 7.05 crore shares.

The NSE F&O turnover was Rs 75,928.77 crore as compared to Rs 58327.40 crore yesterday, 20 September 2007

Most of the sectoral indices on BSE posted gains. BSE Realty index (up 1.54% to 9,183.44), BSE Oil and Gas Index (up 3.55% at 9,340.05) and BSE TecK index (down 1.62% to 3,638.25) outperformed the Sensex.

BSE Auto Index (up 1.10% at 5,193.50), BSE PSU index (up 1.28% to 7,780.84), BSE Capital Goods Index (up 0.89% at 14,520.17), BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.35% to 4,748), BSE FMCG Index (down 0.59% at 2,152.99), BSE Metal Index (up 0.70% at 12,812.76), BSE Health Care Index (down 0.54% at 3,654.24), BSE Bankex (up 0.59% at 8,739.84) and BSE IT Index (up 0.86% at 4,428.34) were underperformers

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 19 advanced while the rest declined.

India’s largest private sector entity by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) recovered sharply from its day’s low of Rs 2151.10. It advanced 4.56% to Rs 2292 on 8.70 lakh shares. It hit an all-time high of Rs 2294. As per reports it has found oil in its D4 block in the Krishna Godavari (KG) Basin. The company completed the technical testing in the block KG (D4) on 8 September 2007 and is in the process of informing the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH). The company had started drilling the third well in the block from 16 July 2007.

State Bank of India (up 4.02% to Rs 1830), Bharti Airtel (up 3.52% to Rs 922.25), and Hindustan Unilever (up 3.13% to Rs 220.85), were the other gainers from the Sensex pack.

India’s top private sector utility company in terms of revenue Reliance Energy (REL) gained 2.46% to Rs 1012 on 12.32 lakh shares. The stock hit all-time high of Rs 1033 in intra-day trade. It was the top gainer from Sensex pack. As per recent reports, REL is scouting for coal mines in Indonesia, Australia, Africa and Mozambique and it sees infrastructure projects such as road and rail transport as key growth drivers. It also plans to raise $12.0-$12.5 billion in debt over the next seven to eight years to expand generation capacity nearly 16 times to 15,000 mega watt

India's largest engineering & construction firm by revenue Larsen & Toubro climbed up 1.23% to Rs 2780 on recent reports that the company is eyeing a stake in Feedback Ventures, a leading integrated infrastructure services firm.

India’s largest oil exploration company in terms of market capitalisation Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) gained 2.44% to Rs 927.50. It has reportedly sought a steep hike in the price of gas to Rs 4,500 per thousand cubic metre from the present Rs 3,200 per thousand cubic metre. ONGC hopes to gain Rs 2000 crore in revenues annually if prices were raised.

IT stocks saw high volatility today. They declined in early trade but later staged a sharp recovery on value buying.

India’s third largest software services exporter Wipro rose 1.70% to Rs 440.85. It had slipped to 52-week low of Rs 425 earlier during the day.

Satyam Computers was down 0.31% to Rs 420, off day's low of Rs 401.50. Infosys Technologies gained 1.40% to Rs 1793, off session's low of Rs 1751.50. TCS gained 1.72% to Rs 1018 after touching 52-week low of Rs 978 earlier during the day.

Infosys Technologies ADR slipped 4.59% to $47.02 overnight on Nasdaq. Other IT ADRs also edged lower. Wipro (down 2.74% to $ 13.83), Patni Computer Systems (down 2.33% to $ 23.28), and Satyam Computers (down 3.70% to $24.76) declined.

The Indian rupee was trading almost unchanged 39.89, as compared to yesterday’s (20 September 2007), closing of 39.89/39.90. A rise in rupee impacts the margins of IT companies as they earn over 50% of revenues from exports

India’s top power generation company in terms of net profit, NTPC lost 2.49% to Rs 184.40 on 62.13 lakh shares. It was the top loser from Sensex pack.

ITC (down 2.20% to Rs 189.65), Hindalco (down 1.33% to Rs 159.95), and Cipla (down 0.89% to Rs 167.45), were the other losers from Sensex pack.

Reliance Natural Resources surged 34.68% to Rs 76.50 on huge volumes of 9.44 crore shares on reports that the company has applied for a license to undertake city gas distribution business in Delhi, Mumbai, Gurgaon and Noida. It hit an all time high of Rs 79.20 on BSE

Reliance group stocks were in spotlight on heavy buying demand. Reliance Petroleum (up 11.10% to Rs 154.25 on 2.88 crore shares), Reliance Capital (up 1.95% to Rs 1541.30 on 8.46 lakh shares), Reliance Industrial Infrastructure (up 10% to Rs 1043.10 on 60,354 shares), Reliance Communication (up 2.22% to Rs 579.05 on 20.43 lakh shares), Adlabs Films (up 9.18% to Rs 549) and IPCL (up 5.27% to Rs 454.60) surged.

Jindal Steel & Power jumped 9.66% to Rs 5371.20. Earlier some reports suggested that the company is planning to diversify into coal mining in overseas markets, coal and power trading and chartered air services.

Mercator Lines rose 1.84% to Rs 69.35 after it on 20 September 2007 acquired a 2006 built vessel (dredger). The company made this announcement after market hours on Thursday, 20 September 2007.

Ashapura Minechem gained 2.85% to Rs 438 after it fixed 19 October 2007 as record date for the purpose of issue of 1:1 bonus shares. The company made this announcement after market hours on Thursday, 20 September 2007.

ICRA rose 0.33% to Rs 1023 after it signed a memorandum of understanding with Dena Bank for rating the bank's loans.

United Breweries soared 9.32% to Rs 358.50 after it said its board will meet on 28 September 2007 to consider rights issue.

Punj Lloyd rose 2.12% to Rs 313 on recent reports that Pipavav Shipyard is raising $125 million private equity through pre-IPO deals.

Sun TV Network gained 0.45% to Rs 355. Earlier this month, Sun TV had acquired 48.9% stake in Red FM, promoted by NDTV. In return (on a swap ratio basis), the Red FM promoters had picked up 35% stake in South Asia FM, the subsidiary of the company.

Petron Engineering Construction jumped 19.10% to Rs 267.45 after its net profit jumped 97.4% to Rs 2.29 crore on 15.8% rise in sales to Rs 63.51 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

Financial Technologies (India) rose 0.51% to Rs 2705.25 after it won regulatory approval to set up India's first national power exchange, The Indian Energy Exchange, an electronic bourse.

PTC India surged 6.94% to Rs 90.15 after it agreed to take on 26% stake in IEX and Tata Power Company, Reliance Energy and Rural Electrification Corp have also agreed to a stake in IEX. Adani Enterprises and IDEC will also take part in the consortium, the release added.

Tezpore Tea Company jumped 10% at Rs 42.60 after it said it had entered into a deal to sell its Merryview tea estate to Dalmia Tea Plantations & Industries for an undisclosed amount.

Meanwhile, foreign institutional investors' net inflow in the country crossed $10 billion so far in this year with an investment of $5.75 billion in the month of July 2007, highest ever in a month. FIIs made a net purchase worth about $10.5 billion in equity and debt markets since the beginning of 2007, topping the total net investment of $8.87 billion in the entire year 2006. Total FII inflow so far in the country is $61 billion. The number of FIIs registered with the market regulator has increased to 1,063 in July 2007 from 934 last year.

European markets, which opened after Indian markets, extended early gains. Key benchmark indices from United Kingdom (up 0.82% to 6,481.60), Germany (up 0.90% to 7,804.69), and France (up 0.40% to 5,711.25), advanced

Asian markets which opened before Indian markets, settled on mixed note today, 21 September 2007. Taiwan Weighted (up 1.36% at 9,105.28), Hang Seng (up 0.56% at 25,843.76), and South Korea's Seoul Composite (up 0.54% to 1,919.26), rose

Singapore's Straits Times (down 0.29% to 3,542.22) and Japan's Nikkei (down 0.62% or at 16,316.74), slipped

US stocks retreated yesterday, 20 September 2007 impacted by mixed earnings reports, a tumbling dollar and surging oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 48.86 points, or 0.35%, to 13,766.70. Broader stock indices also declined. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 10.28 points, or 0.67%, to 1,518.75, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq Composite index fell 12.19 points, or 0.46%, to 2,654.29.

Crude oil prices held near $82 a barrel on Friday, 21 September 2007 after hitting a record of $84.10 the previous day, 20 September 2007 as a tropical depression forced the shutdown of Gulf of Mexico output and sparked supply fears ahead of peak winter fuel demand. US crude for November delivery, the new front month, dipped 6 cents to $81.72 a barrel. London Brent November crude rose 3 cents to $79.12 per barrel.

Market News - Pyramid Saimira

Pyramid Saimira may acquire theatre chains

Likely to be announced on Sep 24 2007

Market Mantra, Futures and Options

Market Mantra, Futures and Options

Supreme Petrochem

Supreme Petrochem

Take Solutions

The stock price of TAKE Solutions (TAKE) was down by about 8% today (September 20, 2007) to close at about INR 1003.

We see several fundamental differentiators operating in this company that should serve to give stock returns of ~35% over a 12 month horizon with a moderate risk only thus marking it out as our top pick (we do not have official coverage yet). We highlight our key thoughts as follows:

(a) Business momentum in robust in both segments (SCM and life sciences). The company is closing out on deals and also in the final stages of fairly impactful potential deals at a frenetic pace. For a company such as TAKE Solutions, such a strong revenue momentum can have a dramatic impact on profits given its modest revenue base (expected revenues of about USD 70-75 mn expected in FY08E).

(b) The INR-USD equation poses little threat to TAKE for three reasons:

§ At a growth rate of 50%+ per year in revenues, the company is unlikely to feel the pinch of the appreciating INR as the robust growth can absorb this impact.

§ The company has discretionary pricing power for its products (license fees and maintenance fees) and we believe that margins can comfortably absorb the initial dilutive impact of acquisitions. No other company in the Indian IT-Sector in our universe of coverage enjoys comparable discretionary pricing power.

§ Over 60% of the company's USD exposure (billing) is neutralized by natural costs incurred in USD, hence, the natural vulnerability to the USD is low. For services players,

§ Non-linear business model provides a powerful margin lever as several existing accounts expand with little incremental operating expenses.

(c) TAKE could grow ~50% in FY08 over FY07 in EPS ( i.e. posts EPS of INR 48); in doing so it would be the best performer in the whole IT pack. The company could thus see its valuation sustain at 20-22x FY09E based on the potential it can further extrapolate to FY09E over FY08 performance. This we believe will help it establish its clear differentiation in quality growth at a time like this in the current environment. Further, we expect FY09E to be at least INR 60 with an upside risk (note that FY09E reflects the full impact of the acquisitions made in FY08).

(d) Management incorporates the contribution from future acquisitions, certainly of one more company which they are likely to announce in Q3-Q4 of this fiscal (FY08). We cannot and hence have not anticipated this in our future projections.

TAKE Solutions can continue to trade in the same valuation zone as Infosys, if not at a slight premium for two reasons.

1. TAKE's 3-year CAGR EPS growth trajectory over FY07-10E is likely to be at least 15% higher than that of Infosys (35%+)

2. Incremental ROCEs are on an upward trend.

We believe both these factors should sustain P/Es and size will be a relatively minor criterion in setting P/E.

Should we see Subex's downgrade of its outlook as indicative of risk in TAKE? Not really, because unlike Subex, TAKE's customer concentration is low and the largest customer contributes less than 5% of revenues. In addition, Subex has largely a single vertical exposure (telecom) which we believe is significantly riskier in case the vertical itself turns sour. TAKE's SCM line of business is well distributed across several verticals such as hi-tech, FMCG, pharma and food. Also, a powerful driver for TAKE's life sciences vertical is regulation mandated by the FDA - there is no discretionary element about this spend which pharma firms are bound to incur.

To round out, we met the expanded management team recently (including the team from their acquired company ClearOrbit) and we believe that they have added depth and quality of their management team with relevant domain and product experience. The team in place has the wherewithal to significantly grow the company from current levels.

All of the above should explain why TAKE Solutions should currently be our top pick in the IT sector

Pre Market Watch

Indian market is likely to have a flat opening as the Asian market is trading mixed. On Thursday, the Indian markets ended with marginal gain, as BSE Sensex closed higher by 25.20 points at 16,347.95 while Nifty grew by 15.2 points to close at 4,747.55. We expect the market to see some profit booking and the investors will take calculated steps in booking their position during the trading session.

On Thursday, The US market closed in negative territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dropped 48.86 points to close at 13,766.70. The S&P 500 (SPX) index decreased by 10.28 points to close at 1,518.75 and the NASDAQ Composite (RIXF) fell 12.19 points to close at 2,654.29.

Indian ADRs ended in negative. In technology sector, Infosys fell by 4.59% along with Satyam 3.70%, Wipro 2.74% and Patni computers 2.23%.. In banking sector, HDFC bank slipped by 0.89% while ICICI bank advanced by (0.58%). MTNL and VSNL dropped by (1.79%) and (0.10%).

The major stock markets in Asia are trading mixed. Hang Seng is trading higher by 146.49 points to trade at 25,701.13. Japan''s Nikkei slipped by 103.70 points to trade at 16,310.99. Taiwan weighted grew by 52.02 points to trade at 9,035.05. Singapore Strait times trading flat at 3,551.34.

Today, Nifty has support at 4,687 and resistance at 4,795and BSE Sensex has support at 16,175 and resistance at 16,480.

US Market ends lower on disappointing earning reports

A disappointing guidance from Fed-Ex and weakening dollar weighs on investor sentiment

US Market closed lower today, Thursday, 20 September, after two days of good rally. A couple of weak earnings from Bear Stearns and Circuit City coupled with the congressional hearing on the fallout in the sub-prime mortgage market, weighed on investor sentiment. Seven out of ten economic sectors posted losses today.

The Dow Jones industrial Average closed lower by 48.9 points at 13,766.7. The Nasdaq Composite Index, finished lower by 12.19 points at 2,654.29. S&P 500 finished lower by 10.28 points at 1,518.75.

Twenty out of thirty Dow stocks ended in red today. Home-Depot led the group of Dow laggards. Citigroup and Mercian Express followed Home-Depot. Boeing, Johnson & Johnson and AT&T led the group of Dow winners.

A disapponting guidance from FedEx regarding its full-year outlook served as the main profit-taking catalyst. Better than expected initial claims data and a stronger than expected Philly Fed Index, which is a regional manufacturing report, could not come to market’s saviour.

Weakness in the dollar took a heavy toll on the Treasury market

When market opened in the morning, all the indices were trading lower. CircuitCity and Bear Sterns came out with disappointing results. But Bear Sterns results traded higher in the morning hours.

The weekly initial claims report was better than expected. But the dollar remained under pressure in the wake of the Fed's rate cut. Gold prices continued their upward journey, tacking on 2% today to $744.20/oz.

On Capitol Hill, central bank chief Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson testified before a House panel on the mortgage markets situation. Bernanke warned that more delinquencies and foreclosures can be expected in the subprime, adjustable-rate mortgage market.

Goldman Sachs also reported its third quarter results, and it beat analysts’ estimates by a huge margin. Shares of Goldman rallied on the news but lost momentum in the afternoon.

The weakness in the dollar took a heavy toll on the Treasury market where the 10-year note dropped more than a point, bringing its yield up to 4.70%.

Except for WNS Holdings, all Indian ADRs closed lower today. Infosys Tech was the biggest loser shedding 4.6% followed by Satyam who dropped 3.7%.

Crude crosses $83

Crude oil prices soared today and closed above $83/barrel for the first time today in New York. Prices rose to a record after the U.S. said that production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in because of a storm threat. The Gulf is expected to shut down 28% of its total production. The Gulf accounts for about 25% of U.S. oil production.

As per the U.S. National Hurricane Center, a weak low-pressure system with the potential to become a subtropical storm as early as today has formed in the eastern Gulf. Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for October delivery closed at $83.32/barrel (higher by $1.39/barrel or 1.7%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $83.90, the highest intraday price till date. Prices are up 38% from a year earlier.

Trading volume hit nearly 1.3 million at the New York Stock Exchange, where declining stocks topped advancing issues more than 2 to 1. At the Nasdaq, almost 1.8 billion shares were traded, and declining stocks edged ahead of those advancing by 9 to 5.

Tomorrow investors will have no economic releases on the schedule.

Expect a volatile session

Asian indices slipped in the morning trades after the Fed chief Ben Bernake said that the housing recession may deepen further coupled with slowdown in the US economy and the investors holding exporter shares cannot avoid being hurt. After registering flat close in yesterday's trades, the market is likely to exhibit weak trend amid strong intra-day volatile moves. The meltdown in US markets and mixed Asian indices in morning trades also likely to put pressure on the domestic indices. However, the FIIs have turned net buyers of equities in the last session may help the investors' sentiment remain positive. On the upside, the Nifty could test around the 4800 level and may witness support around the 4650 level. The Sensex has a likely support at 15900 and may test higher levels of 16500.

US indices fell on Thursday, on rising oil prices and congressional hearing from Fed Chairmen Bernake on housing recession and slowdown in US economy. The the Dow Jones sliding over 49 points to close at 13767 while the Nasdaq slipping by 12 points at 2654 amid weak tech stocks.

Indian stocks trading on the US bourses fell roughly over 1% each . Infosys and Saryam lost heavely by over 3-4%, while HDFC Bank, Wipro, MTNL, Rediff, DR Reddy's and Patni Computers were down over 1-2% each. However, Tata Motors and ICICI Bank closed with the marginal gains.

Crude oil traded near $82 a barrel in New York on the back of a storm threat in the eastern gulf of Mexico cutting US oil output. The Nymex light crude oil for October series gained by $1.39 at $83.32 per barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for December delivery moved up by $10.40 to settle at $739.90 an ounce.

Market to consolidate at higher level

The market is expected to consolidate at higher level on mixed cues from global markets. High crude oil prices which were hovering at $82 per barrel, near record high, may also weigh on the market.

Asian markets were mixed today, 21 September 2007. Hang Seng (up 0.57% at 25,701.130, Taiwan Weighted (up 0.58% at 9,035.05) and South Korea's Seoul Composite (up 0.01% to 1,909.23), rose

Singapore's Straits Times (down 0.46% to 3,536.11) and Japan's Nikkei (down 0.63% or at 16,310.09), slipped

US stocks retreated yesterday, 20 September 2007 impacted by mixed earnings reports, a tumbling dollar and surging oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 48.86 points, or 0.35%, to 13,766.70. Broader stock indices also declined. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 10.28 points, or 0.67%, to 1,518.75, and the technology-dominated Nasdaq Composite index fell 12.19 points, or 0.46%, to 2,654.29.

As per provisional data, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) purchased shares worth a net Rs 1627.44 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of shares worth Rs 564.28 crore on Thursday, 20 September 2007

Crude oil prices held near $82 a barrel on Friday, 21 September 2007 after hitting a record of $84.10 the previous day, 20 September 2007 as a tropical depression forced the shutdown of Gulf of Mexico output and sparked supply fears ahead of peak winter fuel demand. US crude for November delivery, the new front month, dipped 6 cents to $81.72 a barrel. London Brent November crude rose 3 cents to $79.12 per barrel.

The 30-shares BSE Sensex rose 25.20 points or 0.15% at 16,347.95, an all time closing high, on Thursday, 20 September 2007. It hit an all-time high of 16,415.88 in intra-day trade on that day. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 15.20 points or 0.32% at 4,747.55, an all time closing high, on Thursday, 20 September 2007. It struck an all-time high of 4759.55 in intra-day trade.

ESAB, India IT Services

ESAB, India IT Services

Daily Technical Note - Sep 21 2007

Daily Technical Note - Sep 21 2007

Morning Call - Sep 21 2007

Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Nifty at a supp of 4720 and 4694 levels with resistance at 4771 and 4792 and 4825 levels .

Buy : Intraday : CromptonGreaves : above 325 target 335 s/l of 319.5

Buy : Intraday : BPCL above 321 target 330 s/l of 317

Buy : Delivery medium term : HindustanDorOliver above 120 target 400 to 500

Buy : Intraday : IDFC in F&O above 144 target 151 s/l of 141

Sell : Intraday : HCLTech in F&O below 275 target 264 s/l of 280

Out House :

Markets at a support of 16161 & 16061 levels with resistance at 16464 & 16501 levels .

Buy : RIL & RelCap

Buy : REL

Buy : IFCI

Buy : SBIN & Kotak

Buy : Naukari , IBulls , IBreast & Akruti

Buy : Titan

Buy : ABAN

Buy : M&M & Telco & Maruti

Buy : Uniphos bullet

Dark Horse : RIL , Aban , M&M , Uniphos , RelCap , SBIN & Titan

Bullet for the Day : Akruti & Uniphos with stop loss .

TGIF : Thank God Its Friday : A Good week for Investors book profits at higher levels .

Grey Market - Kouton, Consolidated, Circuit, Supreme

Power Grid Corporation 44 to 52 20 to 21

Dhanus Tech 280 to 295 95 to 100

Koutons Retail 370 to 415 70 to 75

Consolidated Construction 460 to 510 205 to 210

Supreme Infra 95 to 108 60 to 65

Saamya Biotech 10 3 to 4

Circuit Systems (India) Ltd. 35 3.5 to 4

Kaveri Seeds 150 to 170 5 to 7

Daily Technicals, Futures, Outlook - Sep 21 2007

Daily Technicals, Futures, Outlook - Sep 21 2007

Crude closes above $83

Crude prices soar as production at Gulf of Mexico shuts due to storm threat

Crude oil prices soared today and closed above $83/barrel for the first time today in New York. Prices rose to a record after the U.S. said that production in the Gulf of Mexico was shut in because of a storm threat. The Gulf is expected to shut down 28% of its total production. The Gulf accounts for about 25% of U.S. oil production.

For the day ending Thursday, 20 September, 2007, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for October delivery closed at $83.32/barrel (higher by $1.39/barrel or 1.7%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $83.90, the highest intraday price till date. Prices are up 38% from a year earlier.

As per the U.S. National Hurricane Center, a weak low-pressure system with the potential to become a subtropical storm as early as today has formed in the eastern Gulf.

Brent crude oil for November settlement rose 62 cents (0.8%) to $79.09 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Since the last couple of days, prices had crossed $81/barrel after the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by a half point to 4.75%, the first cut in four years, to help sustain economic growth in the world's largest oil-consuming nation.

As per yesterday’s weekly inventory report by the Energy Dept, crude supplies fell 3.8 million barrels during the week ended 14 September. This was more than analysts’ expectation of 2 million barrels. Supplies have now fallen a total of 18.3 million barrels in four weeks. Crude inventories total 318.8 million - down 3.9% from a year ago.

Natural gas falls on adequate inventories

Natural gas in New York fell after a report showed U.S. stockpiles are adequate to meet winter heating needs. Traders also discounted the potential of a supply disruption from a Gulf of Mexico storm. Stockpiles rose 63 billion cubic feet (against expected 66 bcuf) to 3.132 trillion cubic feet in the week ended 14 September.

Gas for October delivery fell 17.2 cents (2.8%) to settle at $6.008 per million British thermal units.

October reformulated gasoline closed at $2.1351 a gallon, up 4.17 cents (2%). October heating oil closed up 1.56 cents at $2.2609 a gallon.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs said its analysts raised their year-end forecast for oil prices to $85 a barrel for 2007 and pegged the year-end price at $95 a barrel for 2008.

Also, OPEC planned to boost daily oil production by 500,000 barrels. OPEC's production target is 27.2 million barrels a day, beginning 1 Nov. OPEC, has decided to raise their daily output by 500,000 barrels per day, starting 1 November.

Attacks on oil facilities in Nigeria have curtailed shipments and tight supplies from OPEC have bolstered crude prices this year. As per the U.S. Energy Information Administration, tight global energy supplies are expected to keep energy prices high through 2008.

Trading Calls

Nifty (4748) S4721 R 4774

Buy GMR Infra (804) SL 796 Target 830, 835

Buy HCC (141) SL 137
Target 147, 149

Buy R COM (566) SL 562
Target 574, 577

Sell Wipro (434) SL 439
Target 427, 424

Sell Ranbaxy (408) SL 413 Target 400, 398

Friday farewell to highs!

At the bottom of a bull run, promoters have vision and investors have money
At the height of bull run, promoters have money and investors have vision

Money and vision remain in the market but just changes hands. Today, we see a slightly soft opening following the slide in global markets. Next week we may face some more volatility due to the F&O expiry.

Looks like the dust is beginning to settle as far as global markets' reaction to the Fed rate cuts is concerned. Markets across the world have stabilised as investors try to ascertain the weakness in the US economy and its wider fallout on the global economy. Though the Fed has slashed rates aggressively to combat the turmoil in the financial markets, it remains to be seen whether it's enough to prevent the US from slipping into a recession. The surge in crude oil prices and the weakness in the dollar are other worries. Having said that the dollar's slide is positive for emerging market equities, including India, as global investors seek higher returns post the Fed rate cuts. At the same time, a stronger rupee also has its downside, like a sharp increase in foreign inflows and the consequent liquidity management.

Contrary to expectations, the RBI may not soften its stance on monetary policy and could step up intervention in the currency market. Still, the outlook for the Indian economy appears to be strong though there may be some slowdown due to high interest rates. The upcoming result season should provide some clues on the state of the local economy and health of India Inc. We expect the market to remain rangebound in the near term. Anxiety over the fate of the Government may pose some problems, but if FII inflows are robust the key indices will head further up in the medium term too.

US stocks fell for the first time in three days after FedEx cut its profit forecast and a sharp fall in the dollar stoked concerns that inflation could pick up again.

FedEx fell the most in two months after the second-largest US express delivery firm said the housing slump hurt shipments of construction materials. Homebuilders posted five of the top 10 declines in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the housing recession may become more severe.

The S&P 500 lost 10.28 points, or 0.7%, to 1,518.75. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 48.86 points, or 0.4%, to 13,766.70. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 12.19 points, or 0.5%, to 2,654.29.

More delinquencies and foreclosures can be expected in the subprime, adjustable-rate mortgage market as borrowers face interest-rate resets, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday.

The dollar hit a new all-time low against the euro and falling to parity with its Canadian counterpart, pressured by lower US interest rates and on reports that Saudi Arabia might end its dollar peg. The euro broke through the $1.40 level for the first time, just two days after the Fed announced an aggressive 50 bps cut in its benchmark interest rate target. The euro was last up 0.7% at $1.4068. It earlier rose to $1.4097, its highest level since the currency began trading in January 1999.

Gold futures rallied on the back of a steep fall in the dollar and record high crude oil prices. The precious metal touched its highest level in 27 years. Gold for December delivery closed up $10.40 at $739.90 an ounce in New York. It touched a high of $746.30. In electronic trading, gold reached a high of $746.50.

Crude oil futures closed above $83 a barrel on news that oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico shut down 28% of production ahead of a fresh storm. Crude for October delivery briefly climbed to an all-time peak of $84.10 a barrel in electronic trading. It closed up $1.39, or 1.7%, at $83.32.

European shares retreated with financials and miners giving up some of the previous day's gains, while exporters came under pressure as the euro hit a record high against the dollar. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 0.7% to 374.98. The French CAC-40 index closed down 0.7% at 5,688.76, The UK's FTSE 100 index gave up 0.5% to 6,429.00 and the German DAX 30 index slipped 0.2% to 7,735.09.

In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was down 0.6% at 56,906 while the IPC index in Mexico fell 0.1% at 30,485. The RTS index in Russia ended flat at 2015 while the ISE National-30 index in Turkey slid 0.7% to 68,185.

Most Asian markets were trading in the red this morning. Toyota and Samsung Electronics led exporters lower amid concerns that demand for their products could drop in the US, the region's biggest export market.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index declined 0.7% to 155.74 at 11.19 a.m. in Tokyo, falling from its highest since July 26. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 0.6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down 0.3% in first half hour.

Benchmark index rose to record for second straight trading session led by Realty and Metal stocks. Volatility was witnessed on D-Street after yesterday’s historical session. Sugar stocks witnessed profit taking as declined slightly after yesterday dream run. L&T, ITC, RIL and Reliance Energy were the leading gainers. While the whole of IT pack was offloaded. Finally, BSE 30-share benchmark Sensex ended 25 points higher to close at 16347. NSE Nifty added 15 points to close at 4747.

L&T surged by over 3% to Rs2749 as reports have stated that the company is close to acquiring stake in Feedback Ventures. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2799 and a low of Rs2675 and recorded volumes of over 13,00,000 shares on NSE.

Bharti Airtel gained by 0.8% to Rs893 reports have stated that it is the only Indian company left in the fray for bagging the second mobile license in Qatar. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs910 and a low of Rs882 and recorded volumes of over 11,00,000 shares on NSE.

Simplex Infrastructure surged by over 2.5%to Rs399 after the company announced that it has secured new contracts worth Rs8bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs412 and a low of Rs381 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

SCI rose 1.5% to Rs210 after reports stated that the company has floated four joint ventures to enter into shipbuilding, container terminal operation, dredging and offshore services. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs215 and a low of Rs208 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.

Titan slipped 1% to Rs1486. According to reports the company entered into a five-year tie-up for exclusive marketing-cum-distribution of Hugo Boss watches in India with MGI Luxury. The scrip has touched an intra-day high of Rs1533 and a low of Rs1480 and has recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

Realty stocks were the star performers of the day, the index rose 6.8%. Unitech surged by over 12% to Rs329, DLF surged by over 4% to Rs748, IB Real estate jumped by over 9% to Rs573 and Ansal Infrastructure spurred by 3% to Rs299.

IT stocks continued to be on the receiving end as rupee crossed the 40 per dollar mark this morning for the first time since nine years. Infosys dropped by over 2.7% to Rs1801,TCS was down by 2% to Rs1002, Wipro declined by 3% to Rs434 and Satyam Computer lost 2% to Rs421.

Auto stocks ended higher. M&M surged by over 4% to Rs770, TVS Motors spurred by over 3.5% to Rs72, Tata Motors added 1.5% to Rs731 and Ashok Leyland 1.3% to Rs38.

Pharma stocks also witnessed selling pressure. Glaxo was down by 1.6% to Rs1128, Sun Pharma slipped 1.6%t o Rs994, Ranbaxy declined 1.5%to Rs407 and Dr Reddy’s Lab dipped 1% to Rs638.

Stocks in News:

Reliance Industries strikes oil in its D4 block in the KG basin, after striking gas in two
blocks.

Britannia has taken the dispute with Danone, over the Tiger brand, to a Singapore
court.

Godrej & Boyce plans to incur a capex of Rs3bn for foray into the CTV segment.

UTV plans to invest Rs6bn over the next three years to launch nine new television
channels.

Ramsarup has announced an expansion plan with an investment of Rs40bn over the
next three years.

Royal Orchid Hotels, Gold Finch Group and Maple Hotels are in the race to be the
hospitality partner for Golden Chariot, Karnataka Government’s proposed luxury on
wheel project.

Notz Stucki has joined the race to acquire ICICI Ventures 63% stake in Infomedia.

FIPB cleared a proposal by Maruti to form a JV with Japans Futaba Industrial Company
for setting up an exhaust parts manufacturing facility.

Financial Technology has secured the approval from CERC to set up a national level
power exchange – Indian Energy Exchange. PTC India has consented to take a 26%
stake, while Tata Power, Reliance Energy, IDFC, Lanco Infratech and Adani have also
agreed to buy stake in the energy exchange.

Petroleum Minister Murli Deora says that the government is not considering a hike in price of petrol and diesel in the near term.

Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar says that the government is likely to extend the export subsidy given to sugar mills by one more year.

Fund Activity:

FIIs were net buyers of Rs16.27bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Thursday and the local institutions pulled out Rs5.64bn. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net buyers of Rs5.91bn.

On Wednesday, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs24.85bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs4.88bn on the same day.

Major Bulk Deals:

Deutsche International and Macquarie Bank have bought Ahluwalia Contract while Global Credit Capital has sold it; Citigroup has sold DCB while Goldman Sachs has purchased the stock; HSBC Global has sold Dwarikesh Sugar; Prudential ICICI MF has sold ICI India; Franklin India MF has sold IPCA Labs; Lotus Global has sold Kashyap Tech; Principal MF has bought Rallis India; UBS has picked up Simbhaoli Sugar; Bear Stearns has purchased Tourism Finance Corp.

Upper Circuit:

Swan Mills, Rby Mills, IID Firgings, RIIL, Morepen Labs, Bombay Burmah and Jain Studios.

Lower Circuit:

CCS Infotech and Marathon Nextgen.

Jindal SAW

Jindal SAW

Oil Sector Update

Oil Sector Update

Trading Calls

Buy IDFC with a stop loss of Rs 130 for target of Rs 165.

Buy Unitech with a stop loss of Rs 295 for target of Rs 400.

Buy Cairn India with a stop loss of Rs 166 for a short-term (3 Months) target of Rs 200.

Buy Wanbury with a stop loss of Rs 118 for a short-term (3 Months) target of Rs 185.

Tata Metaliks, Indian Overseas Bank, Koutons Retail IPO Note

Tata Metaliks, Indian Overseas Bank, Koutons Retail IPO Note