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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

India Telecom - GSM Subscribers - May


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Everonn Systems India


Everonn Systems India

India Telecom, India Cement, India Energy


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India Strategy - Boom and Bust


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Post Session Commentary - June 16 2009


The domestic stock market closed the extreme volatile session with decent gains. After a gap down opening, the domestic market made a smart turn around to recover from the fall tracking the higher advance tax payment by the corporates for period between April-June quarter. The figures suggest that the banks have outperformed some of their counterparts in other sectors. Moreover the public sector oil marketing companies have bounced back by paying the advance tax for Q1 FY10 from NIL payments in the year-ago period. Among the banks, IndusInd bank has paid 135% higher advance tax for April-June quarter as against the same period last year. In line with this, State Bank of India , has recorded an impressive 60% rise in its first quarter tax payment at Rs 1,070 crore as against Rs663 crore reported last year. ICICI Bank too, recorded a higher tax payment than last year. From Rs 340 crore last year, it has increased to Rs 366 crore this year. However, Life Insurance Corporation reported a marginal increase in tax payment to Rs475 crore as against Rs435 crore during the corresponding period last year. On the other hand, Reliance Industries has recorded a fall of 8.8% in Q1 advance tax payment as it has paid Rs3.1bn as against Rs3.4bn in the same period of the previous fiscal year. From the engineering space, L&T has posted an increase of 15% in its advance tax payment, paying Rs1.1bn as compared to Rs950mn in the year-ago period. From the sectoral front, the Bankex stocks remained in the lime light on the back of better advance tax payments numbers. In the domestic front, the investors on-loaded position across almost all the sectors led by Bankex, PSU, Power, Metal and Realty index.

After a gap down opening the domestic stock market changed its gears to bounce back from the fall on sustained buying across the counters. The market moved into the green zone from red on the back of reports of higher advance tax payments for April-June 2009 quarter that boosted the investors’ sentiments. However, the global cues are not supportive as in the global arena, the US Markets on Monday shed huge losses recording the worst single day loss in one month. The selling pressure erupted right in the first leg of the trading which was carried from the other markets that reported losses across Asia and Europe. There was lack of news and just after the G-8 weekend meeting, the sense of bearishness prevailed across Asia, Europe and also US. The surge in the US dollar against other currencies caused intense selling in commodity space.

Among the Sensex pack 24 stocks ended in positive territory while 6 closed in negative. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained strong as 1,642 stocks closed in green while 1,007 stocks closed in red while 73 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 82.39 points or 0.55% at 14,957.91 and NSE Nifty closed up by 33.80 points or 0.75% at 4,517.80. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with gains of 112.96 and 125.60 points at 5,226.16 and 6,011.36. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 15,022.19 and intraday low of 14,621.97.

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Sterlite Inds (4.42%), Reliance Inds (1.78%), Bharti Airtel (1.30%), Wipro (1.18%) and Bhel (0.35%).

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Reliance Infra (6.14%) followed by SBIN (4.38%), JP Associates (4.07%), Tata Steel (3.88%), Tata Power (3.66%) and Sun Pharma (3.29%).

On the global markets front the Asian markets which opened before the Indian market, closed in red. Nikkei, Hang Seng, Strait Times and Seoul Composite closed lower by 2.86%, 1.80%, 1.23% and 0.94% at 9,752.88, 18,165.50, 2,288.16 and 1,399.15 respectively..

European markets which opened after the Indian market are trading in positive. In Frankfurt the DAX index is trading up by 0.20% at 4,899.73 and in London FTSE 100 is trading higher by 0.45% at 4,35.58.

The BSE Bankex index surged (2.26%) or 181.36 points to close at 8,202.49. Main gainers are Indus Ind Bank (17.17%), IDBI Bank (10.15%), Canara Bank (5.74%), Yes Bank (5.10%) and AXIS Bank (5.79%).

The BSE Power index advanced (1.92%) or 56.24 points at 2,991.52. Scrips that mostly gained are Torent Power (6.56%), Tata Power (3.66%), Suzlon Energy (2.62%), GVK Power (2.57%), NTPC (1.31%) and Power Grid (0.29%).

The BSE Metal index ended higher by (1.81%) or 212.84 points at 11,961.38 as Jai Corp (4.99%), Jindal Steel (4.71%), Hindustan Zinc (4.21%), Ispat Industries (3.95%) and Tata Steel (3.88%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE Realty index grew (1.63%) or 57.89 points to close at 3,598.75. Gainers are Mahindra Life (6.97%), Orbit Co (4.98%), Ansal Infra (4.81%), Sobha Developers (4.98%), Parsavnath (3.93%) and Phoenix Mill (3.52%).

The BSE Consumer Durables increased (1.36%) or 40.17 points at 2,989.03. Gainers are Blue Star (4.31%), Videocon Industries (2.17%), Gitanjali Gems (1.32%) and Rajesh Export (1.23%).

The BSE Capital Goods index improved (1.28%) or 160.36 points to close at 12,677.57. Gainers are Reliance Industrial Infra (7.80%), Alstom Project (6.01%), Punj Lloyd (4.08%), Havells India (3.75%) and Bharat Electrical (3.51%).

The BSE Health Care index increased (1.05%) or 38.13 points at 3,674.58. Gainers are Bilcare (3.59%), Sun Pharma (3.29%), Ipca Lab (2.74%) and Cipla (2.49%).

Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd fell 3.76% to close at Rs83.25. The company has announced the following results for the quarter & year ended March 31, 2009. The Company has posted a net profit of Rs 393.70 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs 513.70 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 13610.30 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs 19385.70 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2009.

Flawless Diamond India Ltd grew by 1.85% to close Rs38.45. The company has informed that the Companys Export Business of Diamond and Designer Jewellery has again started picking up. Company has received 2 more Orders from following buyers. This order should be completed within 180 days. One order is Madrid Impex FZE, Dubai for Rs 52 Million INR & Malay Impex, Hong Kong for Rs 58 Million.

TRF Ltd surged 5% to close at Rs904.05. The company at its meeting held on June 16, 2009 that it has approved the issue of Bonus Shares in the ratio of 1:1 (i.e. one share for every one share held by the existing shareholders of the Company), subject to the approval of Shareholders at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting of the Company scheduled to be held on July 20, 2009.

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - June 16 2009


Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
16/6/2009 531223 ANJANI SYNTH ARVIND KALYANJI RAMBHIA B 89295 27.09
16/6/2009 531223 ANJANI SYNTH ARVIND KALYANJI RAMBHIA S 88045 26.80
16/6/2009 526652 CALS REF LTD JMP SECURITIES PVT LTD B 61628069 0.76
16/6/2009 526652 CALS REF LTD JMP SECURITIES PVT LTD S 46428069 0.78
16/6/2009 531367 DOLLEX INDUT DEEPTIDUBEY B 200000 6.73
16/6/2009 531367 DOLLEX INDUT MAUD ESTATES PVT LTD S 202631 6.73
16/6/2009 504000 ELPRO INTERN FARIDABAD COMPANY LIMITED B 25000 476.00
16/6/2009 504000 ELPRO INTERN KEYNOTE CAPITALS (STOCK) S 20000 476.00
16/6/2009 532876 EVERONN SYS OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 311491 412.91
16/6/2009 532876 EVERONN SYS H.J. SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 88280 406.86
16/6/2009 532876 EVERONN SYS OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 311491 413.36
16/6/2009 532876 EVERONN SYS H.J. SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 88280 406.95
16/6/2009 532022 FILAT FASH MUKESHDHIRAJLALMAHETALIA B 85137 109.42
16/6/2009 532022 FILAT FASH MUKESHDHIRAJLALMAHETALIA S 85137 109.55
16/6/2009 532836 GREMAC INFRA CHIRAG SHASHIKANT TANNA B 80411 38.23
16/6/2009 532836 GREMAC INFRA NIRAJHARSUKHSANGHVI B 142431 38.16
16/6/2009 532836 GREMAC INFRA CHIRAG SHASHIKANT TANNA S 100481 38.27
16/6/2009 532836 GREMAC INFRA NIRAJHARSUKHSANGHVI S 142431 38.92
16/6/2009 522059 INDAGE VIN HITESHSHASHIKANTJHAVERI B 86186 98.69
16/6/2009 522059 INDAGE VIN RAJENDER SONI S 77817 98.95
16/6/2009 524826 JUPITER BIOS ARCADIA SHARE & STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD B 191585 75.83
16/6/2009 524826 JUPITER BIOS ARCADIA SHARE & STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD S 171083 76.32
16/6/2009 524826 JUPITER BIOS CLSA (MAURITIUS) LIMITED S 166000 75.07
16/6/2009 514322 KAMADGI SYNT JUHI'S IDEA MERCANTILE PRIVATE LIMITED B 138616 32.00
16/6/2009 514322 KAMADGI SYNT BLESSINGS MERCANTILE PRIVATE LIMITED B 200000 32.00
16/6/2009 514322 KAMADGI SYNT ABHAYJASWANT SINGHKUMAT S 331000 32.00
16/6/2009 524404 MARKSANS ANGEL INFIN PRIVATE LIMITED B 1840055 5.47
16/6/2009 524404 MARKSANS ANGEL INFIN PRIVATE LIMITED S 1840065 5.67
16/6/2009 526263 MOLDTEK TECH ADITYA BANGAD S 20000 61.98
16/6/2009 512047 NATRAJ FIN ASK FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT. LTD. B 159887 42.15
16/6/2009 512047 NATRAJ FIN VIKAS BABULAL KHANDELWAL S 74000 42.15
16/6/2009 512047 NATRAJ FIN ASHOK BABULAL KHANDELWAL S 84000 42.15
16/6/2009 531834 NATURA HUE C AYODHYAPATI INVESTMENT PVT LTD B 50000 10.05
16/6/2009 531834 NATURA HUE C HIMAL KANCHANLAL PARIKH HUF B 50000 10.50
16/6/2009 531834 NATURA HUE C FALGUNIBENMAHAVIRBHAIGOHIL S 98885 10.28
16/6/2009 533008 OCL IRON&ST N C R BUILDWELL PVT. LTD B 815791 19.68
16/6/2009 523445 RELIANCE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUC OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 77348 1102.08
16/6/2009 523445 RELIANCE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUC OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 77348 1103.74
16/6/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD ANISHKUMARBACHUBHAISHAH B 70500 5.41
16/6/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD ANGEL INFIN PRIVATE LIMITED B 149000 5.41
16/6/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD MULTIPLIER SHARE & STOCK ADVI. B 75000 5.41
16/6/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD SETU SECURITIES PVT LTD S 356001 5.41
16/6/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD IMTIYAZIBRAHIMBHAIDESAI S 155649 5.42
16/6/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD BHARAT DEVCHANDBHAI PATEL S 70500 5.41
16/6/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD PRITESHPRAVINCHANDRAVORA S 75000 5.42
16/6/2009 512048 SPLASH MEDIA BHANUMATIDHARAMRAJGIRI S 27400 51.00
16/6/2009 532531 STRIDES ARCO SURESHKANMALJAJOO B 375000 130.00
16/6/2009 532531 STRIDES ARCO DOBLISS HOLDINGS LIMITED S 500000 130.19
16/6/2009 532711 SUNIL HITECH CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PVT LTD S 75000 138.08
16/6/2009 531390 UPSURGE INVS NEW ERA ADVISORS PVT LTD B 100500 13.63
16/6/2009 531874 VENUS VENT CHANDRA SHEKHAR SUNIL BHATT B 26000 49.08

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - June 16 2009


Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
16-JUN-2009,ABAN,Aban Offshore Ltd.,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD.,BUY,196977,973.78,-
16-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,156535,403.58,-
16-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD.,BUY,142052,408.41,-
16-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,BUY,168385,410.80,-
16-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,PRB SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD.,BUY,119131,408.17,-
16-JUN-2009,GLORY,Glory Polyfilms Limited,PRIYASHA-MEVEN FINANCE LTD.,BUY,1499,23.10,-
16-JUN-2009,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,ADROIT SHARE & STOCK BROKER PVT. LTD.,BUY,4396305,53.16,-
16-JUN-2009,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.,BUY,4397883,53.43,-
16-JUN-2009,ISPATIND,Ispat Industries Limited,JAYPEE CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,BUY,6125770,24.36,-
16-JUN-2009,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD.,BUY,2157507,43.82,-
16-JUN-2009,RIIL,Reliance Indl Infra Ltd,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD.,BUY,99547,1110.13,-
16-JUN-2009,SREINTFIN,SREI Infrastructure Finan,RELIALNCE CAPITAL TRUSTEE CO LTD A/C RELIANCE LONG TERM EQUI,BUY,2850000,62.50,-
16-JUN-2009,STAR,Strides Arcolab Limited,SURESH KANMAL JAJOO,BUY,300000,130.00,-
16-JUN-2009,ABAN,Aban Offshore Ltd.,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD.,SELL,196977,974.58,-
16-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,155735,403.23,-
16-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD.,SELL,142052,408.91,-
16-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,SELL,166785,410.98,-
16-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,PRB SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD.,SELL,112731,408.69,-
16-JUN-2009,EVERONN,Everonn Systems India Lim,TAURUS MUTUAL FUND,SELL,82046,403.51,-
16-JUN-2009,GLORY,Glory Polyfilms Limited,PRIYASHA-MEVEN FINANCE LTD.,SELL,91499,23.11,-
16-JUN-2009,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,ADROIT SHARE & STOCK BROKER PVT. LTD.,SELL,4333265,53.21,-
16-JUN-2009,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.,SELL,4418666,53.50,-
16-JUN-2009,ISPATIND,Ispat Industries Limited,JAYPEE CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,SELL,5889440,24.41,-
16-JUN-2009,MAYTASINFR,Maytas Infra Limited,IFCI LTD.,SELL,1091659,90.18,-
16-JUN-2009,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD.,SELL,2157507,43.84,-
16-JUN-2009,RIIL,Reliance Indl Infra Ltd,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD.,SELL,99547,1111.07,-
16-JUN-2009,SREINTFIN,SREI Infrastructure Finan,T. ROWE PRICE INTERNATIONAL INC.A/C T ROWE PRICE NEW ASIA FU,SELL,3472037,62.69,-
16-JUN-2009,STAR,Strides Arcolab Limited,DOBLISS HOLDINGS LIMITED,SELL,500000,130.27,-

Bankex gears market up


The benchmark Sensex started the day almost flat with a negative gap of 87 points at 14788. Weak global cues ruled the sentiment leading to selling in front-line and fast moving oil stocks, dragging the index to its day's low of 14622 by mid-morning. However, firm opening in European markets and sustained buying in select heavy weights, banking and public sector undertakings stocks turned the tide and the Sensex entered the positive territory to touch the day’s high of 15022. But, the index remained range-bound though with a positive bias thereafter due to some profit booking at higher levels and lack of buying interest. The Sensex closed the session 82 points up at 14958 and the broader Nifty ended 34 points higher at 4518.

12 out of the 13 sectoral indices at the BSE were up for the day, with BSE Bankex and BSE PSU leading the upsurge, posting 2.26% gains each. BSE Power (up 2.26%) and BSE Metal (up 1.92%) occupied the second and third slot respectively. The only sector to remain down today was oil and gas with the BSE Oil & Gas tumbling 0.98% for the day. The market breadth was positive. Of the 2,722 scrips traded on the BSE, 1,642 stocks advanced, whereas 1,007 stocks declined. Seventy three stocks ended unchanged.

Among Sensex stocks, Reliance Infrastructure was the lead gainer soaring by 6.14% at Rs1,268.55. State Bank of India advanced 4.39% at Rs1,714.10, JP Associates moved up 4.07% at Rs218.85, Tata Steel jumped 3.88% at Rs450.90, Tata Power shot up by 3.66% at Rs1,180.85, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries added 3.29% at Rs1,321.45 and Hindalco Industries rose 3.29% at Rs99. Among laggards, Sterlite Industries dropped 4.42% at Rs634.10, Reliance Industries shed 1.78% at Rs2,141, Bharti Airtel declined 1.30% at Rs807.90 and Wipro lost 1.18% at Rs397.

Over 15 crore shares of Cals Refinery changed hands on the BSE followed by Reliance Natural Resources (4.53 crore shares), IFCI (2.20 crore shares), Unitech (2.14 crore shares) and Suzlon Energy (1.66 crore shares).

Market snaps three day losing streak


The key benchmark indices snapped last three days' losses on hopes for an economic recovery. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 82.39 points, or 0.55%, up close to 335 points from the day's low and off close to 60 points from the day's high. The barometer index had lost 591.29 points or 3.82% in the last three trading sessions. Realty, metal and capital goods stocks rose. Higher European stocks and US index futures supported the domestic bourses.

The market was volatile. Recovery on the bourses began soon after a weak opening triggered by a setback in global equities. The Sensex moved into the green from red for a brief period in morning trade on hopes for an economic recovery. Reports that most companies that figure in the list of top taxpayers from Mumbai have paid higher advance tax for the April-June 2009 quarter also aided the intraday recovery. The higher advance tax payment indicates improved earnings.

The Sensex swung between positive and negative zones later. The market firmed up in mid-afternoon trade. It pared gains after jumping to fresh intraday high in late trade. The Sensex moved alternately above and below the psychological 15,000 mark in late trade.

Banking stocks recovered after Goldman, Sachs & Co. raised its rating on some state-run banks citing a likely a rebound in India's economy and the financial services industry. But index heavyweight Reliance Industries extended yesterday's fall following an unfavourable court ruling on gas sales. The court directed RIL and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) to sign gas supply deal.

The data on advance tax payments for the first quarter of the financial year indicated the manufacturing sector may take more time to recover, while the financial sector remains buoyant. Among manufacturing sector companies, Reliance Industries' first installment of advance tax payments fell by 7.65 % to Rs 314 crore. Similarly, almost all Tata group companies, barring Tata Power, have paid lower advance tax.

Engineering major Larsen and Toubro has seen a 15.79 % rise, while Mahindra and Mahindra's advance tax payment went up by 25%.Engineering major Larsen and Toubro has seen a 15.79 % rise, while Mahindra and Mahindra's advance tax payment went up by 25%.The banking sector has put up a healthy show. State Bank of India is the highest taxpayer during the first quarter of 2009-10 with a 61.09% jump to Rs 1,068 crore. HDFC Bank has paid 16.28% higher advance tax to Rs 250 crore.

Even smaller banks such as IndusInd Bank (122 % increase to Rs 20 crore), Dena Bank (75 % rise to Rs 35 crore) and Yes Bank (42 % increase to Rs 27 crore) have followed the trend.

European shares rose in volatile trade. The key benchmark indices in Germany, UK and France were up by between 0.48% to 0.77%.

The stability of the euro-zone's financial sector remains under threat, requiring banks to maintain adequate capital and liquidity buffers in the event of continued shocks, the European Central Bank (ECB) warned Monday in its biannual financial stability review. "There is no room for complacency because the risks for financial stability remain high, especially since the credit cycle has not yet reached a trough," the report warned.

The report encouraged banks to take advantage of government efforts across the euro zone to shore up the banking system. They should look to diversify their medium-term funding, enhance their capacities to absorb shocks and insulate credit lines to sound business borrowers from being affected by problems tied to toxic assets, the ECB said.

Asian stocks fell for a second day today led by automakers and mining companies and commodity prices sank. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan fell by between 0.08% to 1.8%.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 2.86% even as the central bank remained cautious on the future for Japan's economy. "The outlook is attended by a significant level of uncertainty stemming mainly from developments in overseas economies and global financial markets," it said. Nevertheless, it acknowledged that economic conditions have begun to stop worsening. The central bank left the overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.1%.

Trading in US index futures indicated Dow could rise 21 points at the opening bell today, 16 June 2009. US index futures fluctuated between gains and losses earlier in the day.

Wall Street logged its worst day in a month on Monday, 15 June 2009 as weak regional manufacturing data and rise in the dollar pulled the markets lower. The Dow slipped 187.13 points, or 2.1%, to 8,612.13. The S&P 500 index fell 22.49 points, or 2.4%, to 923.72, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 42.42 points, or 2.3%, to 1,816.38. Economic news disappointed markets yesterday after the empire state manufacturing index plunged to minus 9.41 in June 2009 against a 4.55 contraction last month.

Closer home, foreign funds turned sellers on Monday 15 June 2009 after aggressively buying in the past three months or so. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 213.30 crore on Monday, 15 June 2009. FII inflow in June 2009 totaled Rs 5900.80 crore (till 15 June 2009). FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 27,220.20 crore (till 15 June 2009).

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee would present the Union Budget on 6 July 2009. The Railway Budget will be presented on 3 July 2009 and the Economic Survey would be presented on 2 July 2009.

Interest rates in India are falling thanks to ample liquidity in the banking system, low headline inflation and a loose monetary policy stance of the Reserve Bank of India. However, inflation may rise if oil and metal prices which have risen sharply in 2009 continue to rally.

As per recent reports, the government may cut interest rates on on small savings schemes which currently yields 8% by 50 to 75 basis ponits. A rate cut in the small savings scheme rate will allow banks to bring down their lending rates.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee last Wednesday said banks should provide credit at reasonable rates to spur growth, saying cuts in official rates by the Reserve Bank of India had not been passed on.

Indian stocks have soared in the past three months on a view that ample global liquidity and a return of risk appetite will help India Inc help raise funds for expansion which in turn will boost corporate profits. India Inc has already raised almost Rs 5,000 crore from three qualified institutional placements (QIPs) so far in 2009 and announced plans to raise another Rs 20,000 crore.

Many equity analysts have been raising earnings forecasts of India Inc on hopes that the new government will provide thrust on the infrastructure sector and push economic reforms to boost growth. Citigroup expects the economy to grow by 6.8% in 2009/10 and 7.8% in 2010/11.

A comfortable victory last month for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in elections for the 15th Lok Sabha has raised hopes for economic reforms. Reforms virtually came to a halt in the past five years of the Congress-led alliance government at the centre, when the Communists provided support to the government from outside for a large part of the five-year term. Left parties are opposed to economic reforms.

Investor expectations from the new government are high. Investors expect financial sector reforms such as increase in the cap on foreign direct investment in insurance sector to 49%, from 26% at present.

Unveiling the agenda of the government, President Pratibha Patil in her speech addressed to a joint session of both houses early this month had indicated government's intension to divest stake in state-run firms. The government, however, intends to retain control over state-run firms and will continue to hold at least 51% stake. But some investors are concerned that the government's two key allies viz. the DMK and Trinamool Congress (TC) may oppose economic reforms.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee recently said there was a need to find ways to bring the economy back to higher growth path without increasing the fiscal deficit. He said the government would focus on infrastructure, agriculture and employment generating sectors to protect growth and jobs.

But rising metal prices is a cause of concerns for manufacturing companies as their raw material costs may shoot up.

The government's oil subsidy bill may remain high and it could continue to put pressure on the already high fiscal deficit if the government does not resort to decontrol of oil prices. However, the surging rupee against the dollar may mitigate the impact to some extent as India is a major importer of crude.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently said India will achieve an economic growth of at least 7% this fiscal and promised more resources for areas like infrastructure and public services. He said India will be able a growth rate of 8-9%, even when the world grows at a lower rate.

The Prime Minister said the reason behind his optimism was that India's savings rate, which determines the money that can be deployed for development projects, was still high at 35% of gross domestic product (GDP).

The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 82.39 points, or 0.55%, to 14,957.91. The Sensex rose 146.67 points at the day's high of 15,022.19 in late trade. At the day's low of 14,621.97, the Sensex fell 253.55 points in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was up 33.80 points or 0.75% to 4,517.80. Nifty June 2009 futures were near spot price at 4517.60 as compared to the spot closing of 4517.80. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 68,737.85 crore, lower than Rs 69,109.05 crore on Monday, 15 June 2009.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 6,863 crore lower than Rs 7,106.08 crore on Monday, 15 June 2009.

On the back of heavy buying by foreign funds recently, the Sensex has jumped 5,310.60 points or 55.04% in calendar year 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex has risen 6,797.51 points or 83.29%

Coming back to today's trade, the BSE Mid-Cap index was up 2.21%. The BSE Small-Cap index was up 2.13%. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Bankex (up 2.26%), %), the BSE PSU index (up 2.26%), the BSE Power index up 1.92%), the BSE Metal index (up 1.81%), the BSE Realty index (up 1.63%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.36%), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 1.28%), the BSE Healthcare index (up 1.05%), the BSE FMCG index (up 0.97%), the BSE Auto index (up 0.93%), the BSE IT index (up 0.61%), the BSE TECk index (up 0.58%), outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Oil & Gas index was down 0.98%. It was the only sectoral index which underperfomed the Sensex.

The market breadth turned positive in the latter part of the trading session from a weak breadth in early trade. On BSE, 1,647 shares rose as compared with 1,008 that declined. A total of 70 shares remained unchanged.

From the 30 share Sensex pack 24 rose while the rest fell.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 2.22% to Rs 2,132 extending yesterday's 7.48% fall after the Bombay High Court directed RIL and RNRL to sign gas supply deal. The court has asked RIL to supply 28 million metric standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd) of gas for 17 years at $2.34 per million metric British thermal unit (mmbtu) to RRNL. This is much lower than the price fixed by the government for gas sale from the RIL block in the KG basin at $4.2 million per metric British thermal unit. The lower gas sale price will result in lower-than-expected earnings from gas sales for RIL.

RIL's advance tax payment fell 7.65% to Rs 1,068 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Shares of RNRL were down 7.15% after gaining 24.11% yesterday boosted by the favourable court ruling. Reliance Infrastructure rose 5.34% on speculation it will benefit from gas supply from Reliance Industries at a lower rate.

In January 2009, the Bombay High Court had issued an interim order saying Reliance Industries was allowed to sell gas at $4.2 per million British thermal units from its KG-D6 block in the Krishna Godavari basin off eastern India, pending a final judgment.

Bank stocks rose on higher Q1 June 2009 advance tax payments by top banks. India's biggest bank in terms of branch network State Bank of India (SBI) rose 4.39% as SBI's advance tax payment rose 61.09% to Rs 1,068 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008. SBI on Saturday, 13 June 2009 said it will cut deposit rates across all tenors by 25 basis points, with effect from 15 June 2009.

SBI chairman O.P. Bhatt recently said SBI's first priority is to absorb its associate banks. It is also looking to grow by buying domestic banks.

India's second largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank rose 1.14%. HDFC Bank's advance tax payment rose 16.28% to Rs 250 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank was flat. Its American depository receipt (ADR) fell 4.24% on Monday, 15 June 2009. ICICI Bank cut prime lending rate by 50 basis points to 15.75% with effect from Friday, 5 June 2009. All the existing floating rate customers to benefit from the cut. ICICI Bank's advance tax payment rose 7.64% to Rs 366 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

India's biggest dedicated housing finance firm by operating income HDFC rose 0.84%. HDFC plans to raise up to Rs 4000 crore after its board last Tuesday approved a proposal to raise Rs 4000 crore by selling bonds and warrants. The maximum dilution on conversion of all warrants to shares would be 3.5% of the expanded capital.

Realty stocks rose on expectations that stability at the Centre will attract more money from foreign investors into the sector which in turn will boost growth. Peninsula Land, DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate, Unitech, Akruti City and Sobha Developers rose by between 0.26% to 5%.

Unitech and Indiabulls Real Estate, have already raised funds through qualified institutional placements (QIPs). A number of other realty funds have decided to raised funds by way of QIPs. The promoters of DLF last month sold a 10% stake in the secondary equity markets.

Metal stocks rose on strong domestic demand. National Aluminum Company, Steel Authority of India, Hindustan Zinc, Hindalco Industries and Steel Authority of India rose by between 1.8% to 4.71%.

India's largest steel maker by sales Tata Steel rose 3.88% even as its advance tax payment fell 36.39% to Rs 230 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

But India's largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries fell 4.42% after the company approved raising long-term resources from domestic and international markets on Monday, 15 June 2009. As per reports, Sterlite would be looking to raise in the range of $2-2.5 billion by way of long term resources.

FMCG stocks rose on expectations the government to continue with its rural focus. FMCG firms derive substantial revenue from the rural market. Tata Tea, Nestle India, Dabur India, United spirits, ITC, rose by between 0.57% to 5.74%.

Outsourcing focussed IT stocks reversed early losses on hopes government may extend tax benefits in the Union Budget 2009-2010. The Indian IT industry has sought extension of the Software Technology Parks of India (STPI) scheme. The STPI scheme which offers 100% tax deduction on profits under Section 10 A and 10 B of the Income Tax Act, was extended by one year to March 2010 in the Budget last year.

India's second largest software firm by sales Infosys Technologies rose 0.22% even as its American depository receipt (ADR) fell 4.31% on Monday.

India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS rose 0.13% even as TCS's advance tax payment fell 33.33% to Rs 50 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008. But, India's third largest software services exporter by sales Wipro fell 1.18% as its ADR fell 2.69% on Monday.

Capital goods stocks rose on hopes the government may boost spending on the infrastructure sector. Siemens, ABB, BEML, Punj Lloyd, rose by between 2.03% to 4.08%.

India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro rose 1.29% as its advance tax payment rose 15.79% to Rs 110 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Cement stocks rose on hopes government may boost spending on the infrastructure sector to boost economic growth. ACC, Ultratech Cements, Ambuja Cements, Grasim Industries rose by between 0.06% to 0.85%.

Telecoms stocks were mixed on hopes government may speed up the auction process for the third generation services. Idea Cellular, and Reliance Communications rose by between 2.87% to 4.03%. India's largest telecom player by sales Bharti Airtel fell 1.3%.

Auto stocks rose on improved sales in the month of May 2009. India's largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India rose 0.7%.

India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra rose 2.45% as its advance tax payment rose 25% to Rs 17.5 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors rose 2.03% as its advance tax payment remained flat at Rs 30 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

Some healthcare stocks rose on hopes the government will give primary importance to healthcare segment and health of citizens. Biocon, Wockhardt, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Pfizer, Cipla rose by between 0.64% to 2.49%.

India's largest drug maker by sales Dr Reddy's Laboratories rose 0.28% after the company entered into a strategic alliance with GlaxoSmithKline plc to develop and market select products across emerging markets outside India.

Airline shares dropped after state-run oil marketing firms hiked jet fuel prices, thereby increasing operating cost of airline firms Jet Airways, and Kingfisher Airlines fell by between 1.8% to 5.51%.

State-run oil marketing firms on Monday, 15 June 2009 reportedly hiked jet fuel prices by over 12% on firming international crude oil prices, which struck a seven-month high of $72 per barrel last week. Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation raised aviation turbine fuel (ATF) price by Rs 3,949 to Rs 36,252 per kilolitre in Delhi effective midnight, 15 June 2009. ATF accounts for 40% of airlines' operating cost.

Cals Refineries clocked the highest volume of 16 crore shares on BSE. Reliance Natural Resources (4.53 crore shares), IFCI (2.2 crore shares), Unitech (2.14 crore shares) and Suzlon Energy (1.66 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Natural Resources clocked the highest turnover of Rs 456.50 crore on BSE. Reliance Industries (Rs 263.16 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 259.63 crore), Tata Steel (Rs 213.20 crore) and Reliance Infrastructure (Rs 200.99 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

SGX Nifty in deep red


4,434.5 -85.5

Asian stocks open in negative


Asian stocks fell, led by automakers and mining companies, after a New York manufacturing report missed economist estimates and commodity prices sank.

Toyota Motor fell more than 2% in Tokyo. Sony retreated almost 2%.

Japanese benchmark index Nikkei fell 193.50 points, or 1.93%, to trade at 9,846.17.

Hong Kong`s Hang Seng index lost 262.99 points, or 1.42%, to trade at 18,235.97.

China`s Shanghai Composite slid 15.59 points, or 0.56% to trade at 2,773.96.

Taiwan`s Taiex index gained 27.60 points, or 0.44%, to trade at 6,253.16.

South Korea`s Kospi index shrank 6.97 points, or 0.49%, to trade at 1,405.45.

Singapore`s Straits Times dropped 26.80 points, or 1.16%, to trade at 2,289.76. (7.40 a.m., IST)

Crude continues to slip


Prices recover from intra day low but end almost 2% lower

Crude oil prices went further down on Monday, 15 June, 2009. They fell as the dollar strengthened in the wake of supportive comments regarding the greenback's status as a reserve currency. Prices also fell amid more than required supply concerns. But natural gas prices ended substantially higher.

On Monday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for July delivery closed at $70.62/barrel (lower by $1.42 or 1.9%). During intra day trading, crude fell to a low of $69.8. Last week, crude ended higher by 5.3%.

Crude ended the month of May, 2009, higher by 30%. This was the largest month gain for crude in almost a decade. Prior to May, crude ended April and March, 2009 higher by 2.9% and 10.9% respectively. It rallied 11.3% in the first quarter. Oil prices had reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 51% since then. Year to date, in 2009, crude prices are higher by 41%.

In the currency market on Monday, the dollar index, which weighs the strength of dollar against the basket of six other currencies, went up by 1.5% earlier during the day but ended higher by 0.9%. Dollar gained in the wake of supportive comments regarding the greenback's status as a reserve currency from a Russian official ahead of a meeting of BRIC nations.

Last week, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report that May output from its 12 members averaged 28.27 million barrels a day, up 135,000 barrels from a month ago.

Also at the Nymex on Monday, July reformulated gasoline gained 1 cent to end at $2.053 a gallon, while July heating oil dropped 2.20 cents to $1.816 a gallon.

July natural-gas futures rallied 32.50 cents, or 8.4%, to finish at $4.182 per million British thermal units.

Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.

At the MCX, crude oil for July delivery closed at Rs 3,400/barrel, lower by Rs 73 (2.1%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for June delivery closed at Rs 197.3/mmbtu, higher by Rs 11.7/mmbtu (6.3%).

Precious metals at three week low


Gold and silver continue to drop as dollar surges ahead

Precious metal prices went further down on Monday, 15 June, 2009. They fell as the dollar strengthened in the wake of supportive comments regarding the greenback's status as a reserve currency. Gold fell to three week lows today.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Monday, gold for August delivery ended at $927.5, lower by $13.2 (1.4%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold ended higher by 2.3%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 7.1%.

Gold had ended the month of May higher by 9.8%. It was the highest monthly gain registered by gold in six months. Before this, gold had suffered losses in prior two months. For the month of April and March, 2009, gold had lost 3.7% and 2.1% respectively. But the metal gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (10.5%) since then.

On Monday, Comex silver futures for July delivery fell 84.5 cents (5.7%) at $14.03 an ounce. Last week, silver ended lower by 3.3%. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades. Year to date, silver has climbed 28% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

In the currency market on Monday, the dollar index, which weighs the strength of dollar against the basket of six other currencies, went up by 1.5% earlier during the day but ended higher by 0.9%. Dollar gained in the wake of supportive comments regarding the greenback's status as a reserve currency from a Russian official ahead of a meeting of BRIC nations.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed lower by Rs 77 (0.53%) at Rs 14,403 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,500 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,381 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for July delivery closed Rs 792 (3.4%) lower at Rs 22,524/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 23,300/kg and fell to a low of Rs 22,451/Kg during the day's trading.

SGX Nifty Live Update -June 16 2009


4,436.0 -84.0

Reliance Petroleum


We recommend a sell in Reliance Petroleum stock from a short-term trading perspective. It is evident from the charts of Reliance Petroleum that it was on an intermediate-term up-trend from its 52-week low of Rs 68 (recorded in early March) till it encountered significant resistance at Rs 150 in late May. After hovering below the long-term key resistance at Rs 150 for a month, the stock failed to break through this resistance. Triggered by negative divergence displayed in the daily and weekly relative strength index, the stock reversed direction. On June 15, the stock conclusively broke through the intermediate-term up-trend-line as well as 21-day moving average by retreating 7 per cent. Volume traded was high during this decline. The daily RSI is declining in the neutral region and weekly RSI is on the brink of entering this region from the bullish zone. We are bearish on the stock from a short-term horizon. We anticipate the stock’s decline to continue until it hits our price target of Rs 122 in the approaching trading sessions. Traders with a short-term perspective can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 143.

via BL

Nifty June 2009 futures at a substantial premium


RIL, RPower June 2009 futures at premium

Nifty June 2009 futures were at 4520, at a premium of 36 points as compared to the spot closing of 4484. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 69,109.05 crore much lower than Rs 75,452.41 crore on Friday, 12 June 2009.

Reliance Industries (RIL) June 2009 futures were at premium at 2186 compared to the spot closing of 2178.80.

Reliance Power (RPower) June 2009 futures were at premium at 202.15 compared to the spot closing of 200.20.

Reliance Infrastructure June 2009 futures were at premium at 1200.35 compared to the spot closing of 1196.90.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 99.40 points or 2.17% at 4484.