Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Investor Complaint - Intime Spectrum & Parsvanath
Kindly publish this on your blog so anybody who have not received any
response from Parsvnath, I will take the matter with SEBI. Also send
it to other Indian Financial Bloggers.
Thanks,
Chetan
Dear Investors,
Pissed off with Intime Spectrum treatment of not reciving Phone calls
nor fax nor reply to e-mail messages, I left all my work today and
kept hunting for journalists and bloggers. I have got good response.
They want me to collect all the grievances and present to them and
they have assuerd they will talk to SEBI and also publish about
problems faced by small investors.
I had also called SEBI office and he told me, unless I give a written
complaint he won't be able to start investigation. I have sent my
individual complaint. Even if i have to spend money out of pocket I am
willing to. Lets fight Intime legally and expose them.
Kindly send me your Application Number, No. of Shares Applied, City
and if you have tried to contact Parsvnath or Intime - a brief 3-5
sentences.
I will compile everything and send them to Sucheta Dalal and others.
My e-mail address is ichetan AT Gmail Dot Com.
Thank you for your time.
Alphageo India: Sharekhan Stock Idea dated November 29, 2006
Alphageo India
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs214
Current market price: Rs150
Back on the shopping list
Key points
- Order wins improve growth visibility: Alphageo India (Alphageo) has recently bagged orders worth Rs32 crore and has built a healthy pipeline of orders that is likely to bring in additional orders of around Rs30-35 crore. The company also has an option to accept a Rs20-crore low-margin order from Oil India. Consequently, the revenue growth visibility for the next fiscal (FY2008) has improved considerably. Moreover, one of the orders is from Rajasthan (as against the current concentration of order backlog from the North-East region), which should help in mitigating the seasonality pattern resulting from the closure of operations during the monsoon season in the North-East region.
- Growth to be funded through equity dilution: The huge capital investment required to support the estimated exponential growth in revenues is likely to be partially funded by dilution of equity. The company is expected to raise around Rs15 crore through a preferential issue of shares/warrants to promoters and/or institutional investors. The issue is estimated to result in 22% dilution of its equity base.
- Re-initiating coverage: We are re-initiating coverage on Alphageo as the visibility of its revenue growth has improved considerably on the back of the recent order wins and the healthy order pipeline. Consequently, we recommend a Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs214 (10x its FY2008 estimated earnings per share on a diluted equity base).
Capita Telefolio Volume 5 - Nov 29th 2006
Wednesday Capita Telefolio Volume No 5, Issue No 23 dated Wednesday, 29th
November 2006.
The following recommendation is based on price as on Wednesday, 29th
November 2006.
BUY : Savita Chemicals at Rs 485
Now full details:
BUY : Savita Chemicals at Rs 485
BSE Code : 524667
NSE Symbol : SAVITACHEM
Market Lot : 1
Savita Chemicals is one of the largest players in transformer oils and a key
player in white oils used in FMCG industry. Strong growth in power sector
and in turn the transformer industry augurs well for the sustained high
growth of the company. The scrip is available cum 2:3 bonus.
Actual EPS for year ended March 2005 : Rs 33.7
Actual EPS for year ended March 2006 : Rs 42.8
Projected EPS for year ended March 2007 : Rs 56.5
End of Wednesday Capita Telefolio Volume No 5, Issue No 23 dated Wednesday,
29th November 2006.
Focus shifts to small-cap, mid-cap shares
Small-cap and mid-cap stocks came to the fore today as investors rotated money from frontline shares. The valuations of small-cap and mid-cap shares have turned attractive vis-a-vis frontline stocks following a surge some of the frontline stocks in the past few months.
BSE Small-Cap Index rose 103.62 points or 1.5% today to settle at 6,635.01 and BSE Mid-Cap Index advanced 76.64 points or 1.3% to 5,727.85. In comparison, Sensex rose a muted 14.78 points or 0.1% to settle at 13,616.73. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 6.45 points or 0.16% to settle at 3,928.20.
Volatility was high. After surging over 100 points at the onset of trading tracking firm Asian markets, Sensex gradually pared gains later and it even slipped into the red at one point of time at the fag end of the trading session. It recovered from the red and moved into the green again at close.
Sensex hit a low of 13,586.04 and high of 13,711.76.
Liquidation of positions in the November 2006 derivatives contracts ahead of expiry of November contracts on Thursday weighed on the bourses today. Five Sensex heavyweights Infosys, ICICI Bank, ONGC, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Industries (RIL) slipped into the red. These five stocks have a combined weightage of over 40% in Sensex.
Asian and European markets were firm today. Japan’s Nikkei 225 average jumped 221 points or 1.3% to 16,076.20 following robust industrial output data.
The market sentiment remains bullish due to strong FII inflow and expectations that corporate earnings growth will remain strong. Sensex has risen sharply over the past few weeks. The barometer index is up almost 45% in calendar 2006 so far.
Market would keenly watch the extent of rollover to December contracts from November 2006 contracts which expire on Thursday 30 November. A large rollover would mean traders expect the rally on continue whereas lower rollover would indicate correction might be on the cards.
The broad market depicted bullish trend today as gainers outpaced losers by a ratio of 1.77:1 on BSE. Select side counters surged.
BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4388 crore compared to Tuesday’s Rs 4161 crore.
Cement shares extended their recent upmove on firm cement prices. ACC gained 3.6% to Rs 1140, Gujarat Ambuja Cements rose 2.3% to Rs 146.55 and Grasim gained 2% to Rs 2770.
Cigarette major ITC advanced 2.5% to Rs 184.40. 9.3 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE.
Auto shares rose after the government today announced a cut of Rs 2 per litre in price of petrol and rupee one per litre in diesel. Bajaj Auto rose 1.1% to Rs 2670, Tata Motors gained 0.8% to Rs 817 and car major Maruti Udyog added 0.6% to Rs 920.
Refinery shares slipped on worries that cut in retail fuel prices would put further pressure on their marketing margins. HPCL shed 3.5% to Rs 291.50 and BPCL lost 1.7% to Rs 354.
Indian Oil Corporation dropped 4.7% to Rs 459.90 and Bongaigaon Refinery shed 5.5% to Rs 50.65. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) today recommended a swap ratio of four IOC shares for every 37 shares held in Bongaigaon Refinery, for merger of Bongaigaon Refinery in IOC.
Oil exploration major ONCG dropped 0.8% to Rs 859.80. ONGC has to sell crude at a discount to state-run refiners to help them reduce losses incurred due to state-set prices.
Bharti Airtel dropped 1.3% to Rs 620 on profit taking. Communist Party of India said on Tuesday it was against the entry of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. in India, a day after Bharti Enterprises – a Bharti Airtel group company announced a tie-up with the world's biggest retailer on Tuesday.
ICICI Bank shed 0.8% to Rs 855 and Reliance Industries dropped 0.1% to Rs 1249.
Software major Infosys shed 0.7% to Rs 2151 in volatile trade. On Tuesday, Infosys ADR rose nearly 1%.
Tata Steel dropped 0.04% to Rs 475.60 in volatile trade after Anglo-Dutch steelmaker Corus Group said on Wednesday its third-quarter earnings rose 63% on the back of higher steel prices. Corus last month agreed a 4.3 billion-pound takeover offer from Tata Steel. However, Brazil's Companhia Siderurgica Nacional has since proposed making a higher bid and it has been conducting due diligence with the help of senior Corus management. Corus this week delayed a shareholder meeting to vote on Tata's takeover offer until Dec. 20.
Tyre shares extended their recent rally as natural rubber prices remained low. JK Industries gained nearly 5% to Rs 141.90, CEAT rose 4.4% to Rs 131.75, Apollo Tyres rose 4% to Rs 357 and MRF rose 2.7% to Rs 4612.
Shriram Transport Finance jumped 6% to Rs 140. The company today reported 11.4% growth in net profit for Q2 September 2006 to Rs 39.49 crore (Rs 35.44 crore). Total income rose 37.8% to Rs 318.21 crore (Rs 230.76 crore).
Recently listed Lanco Infratech jumped 14% to Rs 267. The scrip rose on huge volume of 1.1 crore shares on BSE.
Torrent Power jumped 20% to Rs 84.80. Volumes in the stock were a huge 70.9 lakh shares on BSE. Torrent Power is the umbrella company of the newly amalgamated generation, transmission and distribution businesses of the Torrent Group. It debut on the bourses was listed on the bourses on Tuesday (28 November).
Distillation equipment maker Praj Industries gained 4% to Rs 195.20 after the company said on Wednesday it had secured an order worth 2 million euros to design a bio-ethanol complex in Belgium
Bilpower rose 0.2% to Rs 154.15 after the company said on Wednesday it bought 30,999 shares of Tarapur Transformers for Rs 3.41 crore. The firm has also funded Tarapur to the tune of Rs 4.95 crore
Jindal Saw jumped 6% to Rs 404.90 on strong Q4 results. Jindal Saw reported a surge in net profit for Q4 September 2006 to Rs 47.56 crore from Rs 24.13 crore in Q4 September 2005. Net sales rose 98.9% to Rs 1123.39 crore from Rs 564.71 crore.
Voltas gained 2.4% to Rs 110. 21.3 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE.
GE Shipping lost 5% to Rs 213. The stock was relisted on Monday following a scheme of arrangement whereby it transferred its offshore services division to a separate company Great Offshore which would be listed separately.
Gujarat NRE Coke rose 20% to Rs 32.25 after the company said the shareholders of Zelos Resources which is listed in the Australian stock exchange last week passed a resolution giving effect to the company taking a controlling 85% stake in the Australian resources firm. Zelos Resources is now being renamed Gujarat NRE Resources NL.
BPO firm Tricom India rose 10% to Rs 123.60. On Monday, the company announced that it plans to put up a new centre at Nashik with a recruitment of 400 freshers to its fold.
NDTV lost 1.3% to Rs 229.75 after the company said it has entered into a strategic alliance with Karan Johar and Dharma Productions for its entertainment business
Torrent Pharma rose 3.6% to Rs 197. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories said on Wednesday it had signed a deal with Torrent Pharmaceuticals to sell the latter's anti-cholesterol products, Listril and Listril Plus, in Russia.
Kamat Hotels India rose 0.7% to Rs 170.45. The company said on Tuesday that Kotak Securities under its portfolio management schemes, raised its stake in the company to 5.09 percent. The schemes of Kotak Securities acquired 47,648 shares, or a 0.36 percent stake, on Nov. 24, the company said.
Gitanjali Gems rose 10% to Rs 239.90 on reports is in talks to acquire U.S. jewellery retailer Samuels Jewelers Inc. in a transaction valued at $25 million.
Sensex ends with marginal gains
n a listless trading session, the market displayed a range-bound trend with alternate bouts of buying and selling. After opening 47 points above its previous close the Sensex moved up to touch an intra-day high of 13712. The market remained steady in noon trades. However the sentiment turned bearish towards the end of the session and the index dipped to the day's low of 13586. The Sensex recouped its losses on selective buying interest and ended the trading session at 13617, up 15 points. The Nifty advanced six points to close at 3928. The market breadth was positive on the BSE. Of the 2,623 stocks traded, 1,662 stocks advanced, 888 stocks declined and the remaining stocks ended unchanged.
The sectoral indices were mixed. The BSE Auto index, the BSE CD index, the BSE CG index, the BSE HC index and the BSE Metal index ended in positive territory. On the other hand the BSE Bankex, the BSE IT index, the BSE PSU index, the BSE Oil & Gas index and the BSE Teck index exhibited weakness. The BSE FMCG index was up 1.47% at 2015.
Among the gainers ACC surged 4.22% at Rs1,146, Grasim gained 2.75% at Rs2,790, ITC jumped 2.45% at Rs184, Gujarat Ambuja added 2.06% at Rs146, Dr Reddy’s advanced 1.64% at Rs735, Bajaj Auto was up 1.32% at Rs2,673 and TCS advanced 1.29% at Rs1,164. Reliance Communication, Maruti and Reliance Energy reported steady gains. However, Cipla dropped 2.53% at Rs249, ONGC shed 1.26% at Rs857 and Bharti Airtel dipped 1.20% at Rs621. BHEL, NTPC, and ICICI Bank closed with marginal losses.
Nova Petro at Rs16.80 and Nandan Exim at Rs11.65 hit the lower circuit on the BSE. On the other hand Adani Enterprises at Rs216.95 hit the upper circuit.
Over 1.14 crore Lanco Infratech shares changed hands on the BSE followed by SAIL (25.35 lakh shares), Gujarat Ambuja (21.90 lakh shares) and Reliance Communication (19.74 lakh shares).
Sensex registers small gain
Sensex ended with small gain of 14.78 points to settle at 13,616.73 in volatile trade. After surging over 100 points at the onset of trading tracking firm Asian markets, it gradually pared gains later and it even slipped into the red at one point of time at the fag end of the trading session. It recovered from the red and moved into the green again at close.
Sensex hit a low of 13,586.04 and high of 13,711.76.
Liquidation of positions in the November 2006 derivatives contracts ahead of expiry of November contracts on Thursday weighed on the bourses. Five Sensex heavyweights Infosys, ICICI Bank, ONGC, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Industries (RIL) slipped into the red. Cement shares rose on firm cement prices. Auto scrips edged higher after the government cut retail fuel prices.
The broad market depicted bullish trend as gainers outpaced losers by a ratio of 1.77:1 on BSE. Select side counters surged.
BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4388 crore compared to Tuesday’s Rs 4161 crore.
Cement shares extended their recent upmove on firm cement prices. ACC gained 3.6% to Rs 1140, Gujarat Ambuja Cements rose 2.3% to Rs 146.55 and Grasim gained 2% to Rs 2770.
Cigarette major ITC advanced 2.5% to Rs 184.40. 9.3 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE.
Auto shares rose after the government today announced a cut of Rs 2 per litre in price of petrol and rupee one per litre in diesel. Bajaj Auto rose 1.1% to Rs 2670, Tata Motors gained 0.8% to Rs 817 and car major Maruti Udyog added 0.6% to Rs 920.
Refinery shares slipped on worries that cut in retail fuel prices would put further pressure on their marketing margins. HPCL shed 3.5% to Rs 291.50 and BPCL lost 1.7% to Rs 354.
Indian Oil Corporation dropped 4.7% to Rs 459.90 and Bongaigaon Refinery shed 5.5% to Rs 50.65. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) today recommended a swap ratio of four IOC shares for every 37 shares held in Bongaigaon Refinery, for merger of Bongaigaon Refinery in IOC.
Oil exploration major ONCG dropped 0.8% to Rs 859.80.
Bharti Airtel dropped 1.3% to Rs 620 on profit taking. Communist Party of India said on Tuesday it was against the entry of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. in India, a day after Bharti Enterprises – a Bharti Airtel group company announced a tie-up with the world's biggest retailer on Tuesday.
ICICI Bank shed 0.8% to Rs 855 and Reliance Industries dropped 0.1% to Rs 1249.
Software major Infosys shed 0.7% to Rs 2151 in volatile trade. On Tuesday, Infosys ADR rose nearly 1%.
Infosys, ICICI Bank, ONGC, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Industries have a combined weightage of over 40% in Sensex.
Biocon's Shaw looks at acquisitions
Biocon Ltd is going to focus on acquisitions abroad purely for strategic reasons in either intellectual property assets or for marketing and distribution. Speaking to ET.com, Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, CMD of Biocon, specified that for her company, the M&As will essentially be based on a strategic reason. She pointed out that Indian companies had different reasons for acquiring a global company, but said very few companies today are doing it simply for expanding the footprint.
Shaw agreed that M&A is the new hallmark of Indian multinationals and the one sector that is positioned to grow globally is the pharma sector.
Overseas acquisitions by Indian pharma companies in the 2005-2007 period has been to the tune of $2000 million. Shaw said: “For instance, this year, Biocon acquired a company in the US for reasons other than expanding the footprint. It was an IP company and we had to negotiate a lot, but it was important to pay the right price for the buy-out.
Biocon has acquired all intellectual property assets of its bankrupt US research partner Nobex Corporation early this year. The IP acquisition, unprecedented among Indian companies, has cost Biocon $5 million, including the final bid amount of $4.1 million, royalties and creditor settlements in what could be called a not hotly contested bid.
She said, "This was truly a strategic acquisition which provided us with an immensely valuable IP platform. It also gave us full ownership of our ongoing oral insulin and oral BNP programmes.” She added, “We propose to leverage these proprietary assets through a combination of licensing and co-development partnerships."
Shaw also said that pharma is really big on the M&A scene, but agreed that Dr Reddy’s and Ranbaxy are really driving the trend. However, she said, “Biocon is emerging as a key player in the generic market.”
Commenting on the acquisitions by the Indian corporations, she agreed that M&As are the new hallmark of Indian multinationals. The one sector that is positioned to grow further globally using this approach is the pharma sector.
She said Biocon started as a manufacturer and exporter of enzymes. The company gradually shifted focus to a life-science driven generic company with fermentation technology. Biocon is again going through a transition phase from being a generic company to a discovery led life science company. Statins sales to the US and Europe would be a major growth driver in the short term.
US growth will improve next year: Bernanke
The world`s largest economy is still on track to expand at a moderate pace over the next year without slowing too much, says chairman of the Federal Reserve
The US economy, which has seen some moderation in its growth over the past couple of quarters, is likely to pick up pace next year, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on Tuesday.
In a speech delivered at the National Italian American Foundation in New York, Bernanke said that the world's largest economy is still on track to expand at a moderate pace over the next year without slowing too much.
"Economic growth will be modestly below trend in the near term, and over the coming year will return to a rate that is roughly in line with the growth rate of the economy's underlying productive capacity," he said in his first speech on the US economy in four months.
Bernanke said some slowing of growth was welcome at this stage of the expansion if the economy is to be sustained without a buildup in inflationary pressures.
Excluding the ailing housing and auto sectors, "economic activity has, on balance, been expanding at a solid pace," he said.
But, the Fed chief acknowledged that inflation still continues to be the major risk to the US economy. Bernanke said inflation is likely to continue to moderate gradually over the next year.
The Fed chairman said that although readings on the core inflation rate have improved modestly since the spring, core inflation nevertheless remains uncomfortably high. "Given the current level of inflation, a failure of inflation to moderate as expected would be especially troublesome," Bernanke said.
Bernanke said that whether further policy action against inflation will be required depends on the incoming data, and in particular how these data affect the FOMC's medium-term forecasts. The Fed chairman said he is watching rising labor costs carefully for signs that employers are passing them on to customers.
The Fed chairman said that the effects of the housing market correction will persist into next year, but said that the rate of decline in home construction should slow as the inventory of unsold new homes is gradually worked down.
Small-cap, mid-cap stocks to the fore
Sensex pared gain in afternoon trade. But a host of small-cap and mid-cap shares held firm.
Select side counters surged. Side counters Vapi Paper (up 20% to Rs 15.06), Micro Tech (up 20% to Rs 261.75), Machino Plastics (up 20% to Rs 65.15), Fortis Financial (up 20% to Rs 74.20), Pioneer Embroideries (up 20% to Rs 109.10), Torrent Power (up 20% to Rs 84.80), Gujarat NRE Securities (up 18% to Rs 31.75), Alphageo (up 10% to Rs 168), Surya Pharma (up 10% to Rs 82), Godfrey Phillips (up 10% to Rs 1254.60), EIH Associated Hotels (up 10% to Rs 160.55), Ind-Swift Labs (up 9% to Rs 61.35), and Balkrishna Industries (up 8% to Rs 517) surged.
A number of small-cap and mid-cap stocks were up by between 3% to 7% for the day.
The market breadth remained strong. 1793 shares rose on BSE as compared to 672 shares that declined. 64 shares were unchanged. Gainers outpaced losers by a ratio of 2.6:1.
At 13:26 IST, Sensex was up 35 points at 13,637. Sesnex came off from 13,656 to 13,673 range it had hovered at in early afternoon trade.
Sensex had surged over 100 points in opening trade. It had pared gains later. It turned range bound in mid-morning, early afternoon trade.
Sensex’s low was 13,617.12 and high 13,711.76 so far.
ICICI Bank lost 0.1% to Rs 860.60. The stock had risen over 1% in early trade to Rs 873.25.
Gujarat Ambuja Cements lost 0.1% to Rs 143. The scrip had firmed up in morning trading when it had gained as much as 1.8% to 145.90.
Reliance Industries (up 0.6% to Rs 1258.50) though it held positive zone, the stock pared gain. The scrip had gained as much as 1.1% to a high of Rs 1265 in early trade.
L&T (up 0.3% to Rs 1388) too pared gain. The stock had risen as much as 1.2% to Rs 1400 in early trade.
ITC firmed up. The stock was up 2% to Rs 183.40.
Grasim rose 2.3% to Rs 2779 and it was the biggest gainer in 30 Sensex scrips.
Tata Steel rose nearly 1% to Rs 480.40 after Anglo-Dutch steelmaker Corus Group said on Wednesday its third-quarter earnings rose 63% on the back of higher steel prices. Corus last month agreed a 4.3 billion-pound takeover offer from Tata Steel. However, Brazil's Companhia Siderurgica Nacional has since proposed making a higher bid and it has been conducting due diligence with the help of senior Corus management. Corus this week delayed a shareholder meeting to vote on Tata's takeover offer until Dec. 20.
State Bank of India added 1.5% to Rs 1313. The stock hit a high of Rs 1324.70 which is a lifetime high for the scrip. A block deal took in State Bank of India in the FII segment that took place in early trade at Rs 1552, about 20% premium over Tuesday’s closing price
Select auto shares were in demand following reports that the government is likely to announce a cut of Rs 2 per litre in price of petrol and a cut of rupee one per litre in diesel. Bajaj Auto rose 1.8% to Rs 2687, and car major Maruti Udyog gained 1.3% to Rs 926.50.
On Global Stage - By Jay Dubashi
Globalisation has turned the world upside down. We expected foreign companies to make a beeline to India and snap up every Indian firm in sight at giveaway prices. After all, foreign companies had all the cash in the world while Indian companies were going cheap.
But that is not what happened. Fifteen years after liberalisation, it is the Indian companies that are buying foreign firms now. Every day, you read about Indian companies, which, until a few years ago, were unknown outside the country, swallowing up foreign companies, many considerably bigger than themselves, as easily as sharks swallow small fish.
What is surprising is that many, like Corus Steel, gave in without a fight and seem positively relieved that they become part of Indian business groups like the Tatas. Ratan Tata now heads Corus, the first Indian to do so. I have a feeling that after the deal goes through, the company will drop the name Corus and will be known as Tata Steel, which is what it actually is anyway.
This is only the beginning. Much bigger things are in store for the future. If Tata Steel, which until recently, made less than four million tonnes of steel a year, can buy a British steel giant that makes four times as much steel, what is to prevent firm like Infosys Technologies, making a bid for IBM in, say, 10 years time and getting away with it? Or, for that matter, ONGC buying up Shell or BP (British Petroleum), both of which are not doing too well!
In fact, I won't be surprised if Tata Motors, a highly successful company, decides to make a bid for Ford Motors or General Motors, which have been ailing for some time and may be only too glad to jump on the Tata or some other Indian bandwagon, as Corus Steel did last month or Arcelor did (on the Mittal wagon) a few month ago.
Globalisation was not expected to do all this. It was supposed to bring in badly-needed foreign investment and give a spurt to the Indian economy. It has certainly given a spurt to the economy and also brought in foreign investment, but Indian companies are investing more outside than foreign companies inside the country, and this has messed up all the calculations. Instead of the world globalising India, it is India that is globalising the world.
I wonder whether we realise what is happening. The government certainly doesn't nor the so-called economics experts who think they know all about globalisation. Globalisation is not a one-way process. When capital starts flowing, it does so in all directions, from the west to the east and from the north to the south. But it also flows from the east to the west and from the south to the north. For investment is like water and when you open up the sluices, it flows everywhere and floods all the canals.
The fact is that you cannot keep India or Indians down. Liberalisation has released their energies, which were bottled up all these years by politicians who know no better. They made all kinds of excuses --- as the communists are doing now --- to keep us down and they did succeed. But now that the gates are up and the waters are flooding the countryside, there is little that the politicians can do. Corus and Arcelor are only the beginning. The world is an oyster and it is ours for the taking.
Poweryourtrade.com Trading Calls
Buy Reliance Industries above Rs 1262, support at Rs 1257, minor resistance at Rs 1267 above that expect Rs 1280.(Intra-day Call)
Poweryourtrade.com Trading Calls
Buy Binani Ind around Rs 388 with stop loss of Rs 383.(Intra-day Call)
Buy Dabur Pharma around Rs 73.85 with stop loss of Rs 72.5.(Intra-day Call)
Buy Indo Tech transformers with stop loss of Rs 190 for target of Rs 260
Buy Ansal Infra with stop loss of Rs 970 for target of Rs 1170-1300
Buy IVRCL Infra below Rs 414 with stop loss of Rs 411; This is day-trading recommendations.
Short sell HCL Tech above Rs 617 with stop loss of Rs 623; This is day-trading recommendations.
Gammon India Ltd.
CMP: Rs436.70
BUY
Gammon India Ltd. (GIL) is one of the oldest and largest construction companies in India with uninterrupted profitability for the last 32 years, displaying the
ability of the management to combat cyclicality. The order book at Rs78bn presently, translates into 6.6x its FY06 annualized turnover, being one of the highest ratios among peers. The order intake at 1.6x during FY05 annualized turnover and 3.6x FY06 annualized turnover has shown a rising trend and will help generate high growth rate in future.
GIL, through its 82.5% subsidiary, Gammon Infrastructure Projects Ltd (GIPL), is one of the largest owners of infrastructure assets in the country. GIPL holds nine BOTs, four operational and the rest in development phase, including four
roads, two bridges, two power projects and a port project. The revenue stream is diversified too, with a mix of toll, annuity and grants. We value these BOTs at
Rs57.7 per share of GIL, which forms 15.5% of the CMP.
While we have valued the BOTs at the book value of equity infused by GIL, we foresee significant unlocking of value with the listing of GIPL, which has filed its draft red herring prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India. The IPO would also help resolve the varied and long term funding needs of GIPL for BOTs.
Driven by an order book increase by Rs40.6bn between CY04 and Q1 FY07 and an order intake of 1.4x FY07E turnover, we expect GIL to witness a CAGR of 54% in turnover between FY06 and FY08 and a 33.2% CAGR in net profit during
the same period. The transportation segment will drive revenues accounting for an expected 52.4% of total revenues in FY07 and 50.7% in FY08.
Indiainfoline - NEWS ROUND UP
Volkswagen AG will invest US$530mn on building a car plant in Maharashtra and will sign an agreement with the Maharashtra Government to this effect. The assembly plant will begin production in the second half of 2009, Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen said in a Nov. 17 statement after the company's supervisory board approved the plan. The plant will be built at Chakan, near Pune. Volkswagen would manufacture 100,000 vehicles per year at the proposed factory.
The proposed merger of Air India (AI) and Indian will take some more time to see the light of the day. The Government has decided to refer the issue to a Committee of Secretaries (CoS). The panel will be headed by Cabinet Secretary BK Chaturvedi. The decision was taken by the empowered group of ministers (eGoM) looking into the proposed merger of the two public sector airlines.
India's merchandise exports grew by 11.35% last month to US $9.62bn, imports climbed by 36.8% to US $15.83bn, widening the trade deficit to US $6.21bn from US $2.93bn in the same month last year. Crude oil imports stood at US $5.35bn in October compared with US $3.44bn in the corresponding period last year, registering a growth of 55.35%. During the month under review, non-oil imports were estimated at US $10.48bn, up 28.92% over non-oil imports of US $8.13bn in October 2005.
SABMiller Plc plans to spend about US $100mn a year in India on raising capacity. SABMiller has a capacity of 2.29mn hectoliters (1.9 million barrels) at its 10 Indian breweries. India's total beer market amounts to 7.03mn hectoliters, and per-capita consumption is 0.7 liter. SABMiller has so far spent more than US$500mn in India. The expansion will take place in existing facilities and the company will make fresh investments as and when permitted.
Hilton Hotels Corporation will form a joint venture company (JV) in India with DLF Ltd subject to the receipt of formal written approval from the Government. The JV plans to develop and own 75 hotels and serviced apartments over the next seven years. The JV-owned hotels will represent several brands from Hilton portfolio, including Hilton Hotels, Hilton Garden Inn, Homewood Suites and Hilton Residences. The JV will develop and build these properties, while Hilton will manage them.
Honda Siel Cars India has unveiled the all-new Honda CR-V, a premium variant of its globally popular SUV which will cost at least Rs 2.5 lakh more than the existing offering. The new CR-V will be available in two versions - a six speed manual transmission model and an automatic transmission one. The two models will be priced at Rs 17.7 lakh ( ex-showroom Delhi) and Rs 18.4 lakh ( ex-showroom Delhi), respectively.
Indiainfoline - Strategy Inputs of the Day
Bulls may cook up gains!
The winner is the chef who takes the same ingredients as everyone else and produces the best results.
Despite Tuesday’s profit booking, a healthy correction still appears to evade the market. The ingredients are there for both the bulls and bears. Choose your ingredients or stocks to the extent you can digest. We are not sure if the men in blue will bounce back from two back-to-back losses in South Africa. But, the bulls seem to leave Tuesday’s blues behind and are set to rebound immediately. The weather around seems fine with Asian markets up sharply this morning. On Wall Street, US stocks closed with slim gains. What may be of some concern to various categories of investors is yesterday's provisional FII figure. The foreign funds offloaded shares worth Rs4.39bn in the cash segment. On the derivative side, they were net sellers to the tune of Rs22.94bn. Having said that, the December Nifty futures shut shop with a 17-point premium, indicating that the immediate undertone remains positive. This may be a good sign as traders are reluctant to go short on the Nifty despite the steep fall in the cash segment. Market wide rollover is at 47%, while the same in Nifty futures stands at 41%. We expect trading to remain volatile ahead of tomorrow's expiry of F&O contracts. The key indices will open firm on positive global cues and could end in the green, provided fresh buying kicks in, especially from FIIs.
Gujarat NRE Coke may be in action as the company now has a listed presence on the australian Stock Exchange in the form of Gujarat NRE Resources NL. Last week, the shareholders of Zelos Resources NL passed the resolution giving effect to Gujarat NRE Coke taking a controlling (85%) stake in the company, which is now being renamed.
Jindal Saw is likely to gain as it has posted a net profit of Rs475.68mn for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2006 compared to Rs241.37mn for the same quarter last year. For the reporting quarter, total income (net of excise) is up 98% at Rs11.40bn. FDC might attract some attention as it has received the permission to market its product Flucanazole in the United Kingdom.
PSU oil companies will be under pressure as the Government is all set to cut fuel prices at the retail level. Steel companies may also fall amid reports that local producers are likely to cut prices in December. Exide Industries is being seen benefiting from the company's foray into the insurance sector, through investment in ING Vysya Life Insurance Co. Another stock to look out for is Apollo Hospitals due to a series of initiatives being taken up by the company.
Bangalore-based Bal Pharma has entered the $60-bn Japanese pharma market with its bulk drug products Ebastine (used in antihistamines) and Gliclazide (an anti-diabetic bulk active).
US stocks closed with marginal gains on Tuesday as investors shrugged off a spate of weak economic reports and remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Investors resumed buying following the prior day's sharp losses. But, worries about the state of the economy and a spike in oil prices kept investors on the edge.
The Dow Jones closed up 14 points at 12,136, rebounding from a morning low of 12,072. The S&P 500, meanwhile gained 4 points to 1,386, while the Nasdaq added 6 points to 2,412.
In a speech prepared for delivery before the National Italian American Foundation in New York, Bernanke said the world's largest economy is roughly slowing at the pace the central bank had expected this summer, reflecting the slowdown in the housing market.
He also said that inflation has moderated of late, due in part to the decline in oil and gas prices. However, the level of the so-called "core" inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, has remained "uncomfortably high."
Treasury bond prices rose on a growing optimism that the Fed is likely to cut rates next year. The advance lowered the yield on the 10-year note to 4.50% from 4.53% late on Monday.
US light crude oil for January delivery rose 67 cents to $60.99 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract was quoting 16 cents higher at $61.15 per barrel in after-hours electronic trading in Asia.
The dollar dropped 0.1% against the euro but it rose 0.1% against the yen. Gold for January delivery closed down $3.30 at $637.30.
European shares closed lower for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday, as weakness in the dollar and profitability concerns surrounding Barclays and Nokia depressed sentiment. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 0.3% to 349.69.
The German DAX Xetra 30 closed down 0.3% at 6,281.68, while the French CAC-40 lost 0.1% to 5,306.24. The UK's FTSE 100 shed 0.4% to 6,025.90.
Asian stocks rose Wednesday morning, led by Toyota and Samsung Electronics, after Japan's industrial production rose to a record and Fed chief Bernanke said that US economic growth will pick up next year.
The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index rose 1.4% to 134.12 as of 11:15 a.m. in Tokyo. Markets rose around the region, except in China and the Philippines.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 158 points to 16,013 while the Hang Seng rose 68 points to 18,707. The Kospi in Seoul put on 10 points to 1422 while the Straits Times in Singapore was up 64 points to 18,704.
In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil gained 0.3% to 41,043 while the IPC Index in Mexico lost 0.4% to 24,344 and the RTS index in Russia gained 0.10% to 1728.
Major Bulk Deals:
E*Trade Mauritius has picked up 4.5% stake in IL&FS Investsmart from fidelity; UBS has bought a big chunk of IDFC shares; Jpmsi Copthall has purchased GVK Power; Sundaram MF has bought Rane Holdings while Templeton MF has sold the stock.
Insider Trades:
Surana Telecom Ltd: Sunita Surana, Promoter has purchased from open market 26011 equity shares of Surana Telecom Ltd from 16-JUN-2006 TO 24-NOV-2006.
Results Today:
Viceroy Hotels and Shriram Transport Finance
Market Volumes:
The turnover on NSE was up by 3.5% to Rs82.58bn. BSE Technology index was the major loser and lost 2.02%, BSE Metal index (down 1.63%), BSE Bank index (down 1.45%), BSE PSU index (down 1.11%) and BSE Auto index (down 0.82%) were among the other major losers.
Volume Toppers:
IFCI, IDFC, India Cements, Hanung Toys, Ashok Leyland, Lanco Infratech, IVRCL Infrastructure, R Comm, Hotel Leela, Arvind Mills, JP Associates, Adani Enterprises and Amar Remedies.
Delivery Delight:
Ashok Leyland, Aurobindo Pharma, Bharti Airtel, CEAT, Century Textiles, CESC, D S Kulkarni, Grasim, HCL Infosystems, Hero Honda, IVRCL Infrastructures, Maruti, Punj Lloyd, Sun Pharma, Tata Tea and Yes Bank.
Brokers Recommendations:
Wipro – Hold from Angel Broking
Sterlite Industries – Buy from Emkay
Long Term Investment:
India Cements
Major News Headlines:
Sadbhav Engineering JV gets Rs2.97bn order
IVRCL Infrastructures wins orders worth Rs3.88bn
Orient Ceramics approves 5:4 bonus issue
Dabur Pharma wins ANDA nod for cancer drug
Natco Pharma unveils lung cancer treatment
Karur KCP bags export orders worth $1.65mn
Volatility may remain high
The market is likely to recover after Tuesday’s 172 points correction that was triggered by weak global markets. Recovery in Asian markets will aid recovery on domestic bourses. But volatility may remain high ahead of expiry of November 2006 derivatives contracts on Thursday 30 November. Market men are also eyeing the extent of rollover to December 2006 contracts from November contracts ahead of expiry of November contracts.
As per provisional data, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 439 crore on Tuesday 28 November, the day when Sensex had lost 172 points. They pressed heavy sales in index-based futures to the tune of Rs 1748 crore on that day. They were net sellers to the tune of Rs 839 crore in individual stock futures on that day.
Meanwhile, large daily FII figures over the past few days indicate that there have been simultaneous entries and exits. This in turn indicates of different strategies being adopted by various FIIs operating in India. This also suggests churning of portfolios. On a net basis, there has been stepping up of inflow by FIIs over the past two months. The hefty FII figures this month is partly due to their subscription to IPOs of Parsvnath Developers, Lanco Infratech and Info Edge India. The cumulative FII inflow for November 2006 has reached Rs 9778.40 crore.
Japanese shares led recovery in Asian stocks on Wednesday following robust industrial output data in Japan. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were up by between 0.08% to 1.1%.
US stocks rose modestly on Tuesday as energy shares advanced on higher oil prices and overshadowed a warning on the risks of inflation from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that reduced hopes of an interest-rate cut any time soon. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 14.74 points, or 0.12 percent, to end at 12,136.45. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 4.82 points, or 0.35 percent, to finish at 1,386.72. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.69 points, or 0.28 percent, to close at 2,412.61.
NYMEX crude for January delivery rose 13 cents to $61.12 a barrel, building on this week's gains after private forecaster AccuWeather said that cold weather would sweep into the US Northeast by the weekend, ending a recent warm spell in the world's biggest heating oil market.
Midcaps.in & 10paisa.com - 29 November 2006
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Sensex ended in Red, down by 182 points with decent volume of Rs 4049 cr. Market - Technical View
(Click on the Image to view full size)Sensex ended in Red, down by 182 points with decent volume of Rs 4049 cr.
Sensex opened with downside gap due to world markets impact but succeeded to hold important level of 13560 levels. It is trading in channel and still maintained the importance of channel. As per this channel main support lies at 13510 levels which is lower channel lines value. As long as Sensex maintain the channel the bias seems to be positive and 14000 levels could be seen. Failure of this could lead up to 13180 levels.
Important Resistance 1) 13692 2) 13730 3) 13800 4) 13980
Important Support 1) 13560 imp 2) 13510 3) 13480 4) 13460
FII: +405.60 Cr & + 7.44 cr
FII Gross purchases Rs 3082.90 Cr Gross Sellers Rs 2677.30Cr Net Buyer Rs 405.60 Cr
MF Gross Purchases Rs 359.91 Cr Gross Sellers Rs 352.47 Cr Net Buyers Rs 7.44 Cr
Todays Provisional number is a big negative.. and that is of concern. We are approaching the end of the FNO session and life will get tough either side.
Sensex finally gives in to global cues ! Pulls back!
Market opened yesterday deep in the red given the fact that the US markets derailed on a depressing note overnight, and the Asian markets were down as well and stayed that way right till the end of the trading session. Markets weakened further during the final hour of trade as selling pressure intensified amongst index heavyweights However, there were irregular attempts of profit booking at the lower end to break the rally but none were strong enough to cause any major dent to the selling pressure. Strength was seen in heavyweights across very few sectors like Auto, Pharma and Banks. Weakness was seen in key stocks from the software, telecom and energy. Both Asian markets and European markets ended in red.
Sensex closed down by 172 points at 13601.95. Weighing on the Sensex were losses in RCVL (417.6,-3 percent), Satyam (450.2,-3 percent), Rel Energy (530.55,-3 percent), Infosys (2166.75,-3 percent) and NTPC (149.85,-3 percent). Losses are restricted by gains in SBI (1293.45,+1 percent), Hero Honda (742.05,+1 percent), Grasim (2715.3,+1 percent), Maruti (913.8,+0 percent) and Guj Ambuja (143.2,+0 percent).
Telecom sector was deep in red. Bharti was down. Bharti Enterprises will be the Wal-Mart franchisee and manage the front-end, while the US retailing giant will manage technology and franchising. Interesting to note that Bharti Airtel the listed subsidiary and has no benefits coming from the same except that its services could be sold from the stores as and when they come in. Bharti stock has been bid up significantly on the back of such news of this speculation. Bharti enterprises own many companies and in different areas of operation: To this will be added the Walmart JV. Investors of Bharti Airtel have no reason to be excited. This had the stock a bit down. Rel Comm also took a big knock.
Pharma stocks witnessed a mixed range. As per a leading business news paper reported, Biocon has chalked out plans to invest around US$ 10 m in the next 12 months for the purpose of expanding its facilities and increasing the range of its product offerings. Besides this, the company has envisaged launching its rheumatoid arthritis drug named P1H in India in the next three years. This drug is scheduled to enter Phase III clinical trials in 18 months and will be a branded drug in the event that it gets commercialised. The company is also looking to sell the drug in the international markets after it has been launched in the domestic market. This move is in line with the company's strategy to become a discovery-led company and reduce its dependence on statins for long term. The stock is traded 1% higher.
Going ahead, the worry on the global equities is the US economy. The data coming from there is not encouraging and there is a chance that the interest rates may be cut earlier than usual. This is bad news. US is the engine for the world economy. On the other hand Indian stocks are pricing in excessive optimism of flawless execution. Siemens at 45 times FY 07 earnings is certainly grossly expensive specially in a scenario where price pressures remain and also the fact that the company will hive off its subsidiaries to its parent thus taking away big potential growth areas. Bharti is valued at 22 times FY08 earnings... the list goes on and on. Moral of the above is. That the large caps have some correction to go through and price in some element of negative surprise. Everyone seems to be expecting a bounce.. Will it this time.? Dont be surprised if it does and dont be surprised if it does not. Be ready for both. Thats the right way !
Technically Speaking: Overall market was in red and ended the same. Volumes were at 4049 cr. The breadth has been in favor of Decliners as they were at 1465 while Advances at 1072. The Resistance was at 13662-13733 while Support at 13549 -13506 levels.
Forbes India's Most Reputable Companies
- Tata Group
- Maruti Suzuki
- Hero Honda Motors
- Hindustan Lever
- ITC Limited
- State Bank of India
- Infosys Tech
- Mahindra & Mahindra
- Indian Oil
- Grasim
Investment Nuggets
Popularly known as the "Guru of Contrarian Investing", David Dreman follows an investment philosophy based on low P/E approach to stock selection. Dreman, who has authored the recent Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Next Generation, among several other investment books, is also the Founder and Chairman of Dreman Value Management. His Large Cap Value Fund has returned on an average 17 per cent annually, and Small Cap Value Fund 16.5 per cent annually, since inception in 1991.
There is a bit of difference between value investing and contrarian investing. Basically, I buy stocks when they are really battered. I am very strict with my discipline. I always buy stocks with low price-earnings ratios, low price-to-book-value ratios, low price-to-cash-flow ratios and higher-than-average yield.
Academic studies have shown that a strategy of buying out-of-favour stocks with low P/E, price-to-book and price-to-cash-flow ratios outperforms the market pretty consistently over very long periods of time. The operative phrase there is `very long periods of time'.
***
Psychology is probably the most important factor in the market — and the one that is least understood. There's constant overreaction in the market. Low-P/E stocks are constantly priced too cheaply over long periods of time, and higher-P/E stocks are priced too dearly. People like exciting stories; they don't like boring companies. That is the normal cause of investor overreactionAlthough financial advisers uniformly praise good long-term records, most concentrate on performance over short terms, like three years.
The problem is that this period may be shorter than the life span of a Wall Street fad, like Internet stocks. First-rate funds may look weak over three years, as many did during the tech bubble, because their investing styles are temporarily out of favour.
Anyone can get lucky for three years. Daniel Kahneman of Princeton won the Nobel Prize in economics for, among other things, showing that this fixation with sizzling near-term performance hurts investors. Avoid the problem by looking at 10- or 15-year numbers.
***
If you follow them (popular trends), odds are you're buying near the peak, and the lovely outperformance will end soon. Today hedge funds are hot, driven by billions of dollars that advisers are shepherding into this sector. The same is true for foreign securities, gold and natural resources. Am I being too hard on financial advisers? If the news is better than expected, the Dow Jones industrial average shoots up 150 points; if worse, the drop is just as steep.
Hedge fund managers, day traders and swarms of other quick-buck types trade instantly to get the edge from news flashes. Maybe you can make money trading on these moves, but only if your transaction costs are nil and your computer is ten seconds faster than every other trader's. Neither condition holds.
Sharekhan Investor's Eye dated November 28, 2006
The tyre industry
Roll on good times
Tyre stocks are back in the reckoning and look very attractive considering the stable rubber prices, better pricing power with the tyre majors and a tight demand-supply scenario in the industry. In view of the strong volumes in the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) segment and a robust replacement demand (triggered by brilliant OEM sales recorded in the past two years), we believe the tyre industry is in for good times. We expect the overall volumes of the industry to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% over the next two years. Softening raw material prices along with price hikes should improve the profitability of the tyre companies, restoring their margins to 9-10% levels. Apollo Tyres and Ceat are our top picks in the sector. Goodyear and Balkrishna Inustries operate in niche segment and both would benefit from the demand growth and lower raw material prices. We are gathering detailed information on these and if found attractive would be covered subsequently.
Indo Tech Transformers
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs280
Current market price: Rs199
Powered by power reforms
Key points
- The fortunes of Indo Tech Transformers are all set get transformed, thanks to India�s mission to achieve power for all by 2012. As part of this programme the government plans to almost double the country�s installed power generation capacity from 115,000MW to 200,000MW by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan.
- This initiative is expected result in an additional demand of around 570,000MVA of transformer capacity over FY2005-12 or of 80,000MVA per year. Another 15,000MVA of demand is expected from the replacement market every year, leading to a total annual demand of 95,000MVA. That is a huge opportunity for the transformer industry whose annual capacity stands at a mere 75,000MVA.
- Indo Tech already stands to gain from this opportunity, as it has built a strong relationship with the SEBs in the south over the years. Now to make the most of this demand explosion, it is tripling its capacity from 2,450MVA to 7,450MVA.
- Indo Tech has signed an MoU with DuPont (USA) to set up a 100MVA plant to manufacture dry-type transformers for industrial and corporate customers. These transformers are higher in realisation and installed in the basement of hotels, IT parks, malls etc. We believe this will further boost the top line of the company.
- As a result of these initiatives we expect its revenues and net profit to grow at CAGR of 52% and 49% respectively over FY2006-08E.
- At the current market price of Rs199, the stock is quoting at 8.6x its FY2008E EPS and 4.8x its FY2008E EV/EBIDTA. Considering the future growth potential of the company and the stock�s attractive valuations, we recommend a Buy on the stock with a price target of Rs280.
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