Search Now


Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Stock Picks 2009

Stock Picks 2009

India Telecom

India Telecom

Bulk Deals, Insider Trades - Jan 6 2009

Bulk Deals, Insider Trades - Jan 6 2009

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Jan 6 2009

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
6/1/2009 532919 ALLIED COMP HIRJI KANJI PATEL S 2447935 0.57
6/1/2009 531358 CHOIC INTERN TENET BIO PHARMA PVT LTD S 190000 6.75
6/1/2009 526033 CRYSTAL SOFT VIBHUTI P VAYEDA B 100000 7.01
6/1/2009 526033 CRYSTAL SOFT JIGNESH PATEL B 75000 7.01
6/1/2009 526033 CRYSTAL SOFT KAUSHAL NIRANJAN SHAH S 494173 7.01
6/1/2009 530175 ODYSSEY TEC C SEN INVESTMENT PVT.LTD. S 60555 3.98

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Jan 6 2009

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
06-JAN-2009,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,VAJA ATULBHAI GORDHANBHAI,BUY,49000,175.00,-
06-JAN-2009,HDIL,Housing Development and I,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,BUY,1557891,141.24,-
06-JAN-2009,IOLN,IOL Netcom Limited,PRIME BROKING COMPANY ( INDIA ) LTD - PWM,BUY,150000,51.24,-
06-JAN-2009,KAJARIACER,Kajaria Ceramics Ltd,HIGH VALUE TRADERS PRIVATE LTD,BUY,3016,31.65,-
06-JAN-2009,ALKALI,Alkali Metals Limited,VAJA ATULBHAI GORDHANBHAI,SELL,52000,167.32,-
06-JAN-2009,HDIL,Housing Development and I,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,SELL,1557891,141.28,-
06-JAN-2009,KAJARIACER,Kajaria Ceramics Ltd,HIGH VALUE TRADERS PRIVATE LTD,SELL,618787,30.01,-

Post Market Commentary - Jan 6 2009

The Indian market ended the day mixed after trading with volatility for throughout the trading session. The benchmark indices swung between positive and negative terrain and moved in a narrow range on mixed global cues. Mixed Asian markets along with firm European markets and fiscal and monetary measures by policymakers announced on 2 January 2009 to boost slumping growth, added positive sentiments on the domestic bourses. However, the lower closing of US stock market after an irregular session on Monday, contributed to the negative attitude. US auto sales plunged 36% in December.

The domestic market opened lower and turned choppy soon after start. Later, stocks moved into positive zone in line with other Asian stocks before sliding into red again. Market continued to remain range bound in a sea saw trade on continuous bouts of buying and selling. During last trading hours, benchmark indices slipped sharply to the day’s low on fresh round of selling, though managed to close mixed. Investors are looking for large US spending package and tax cuts to support the world’s largest economy. It is estimated that about 40% of US economic package worth as much as $775 billion would be in the form of tax breaks for business and the middle class. BSE Sensex ended above 10,300 mark and NSE Nifty above 3,100 level. From the sectoral front, Metal, Bank, Auto and FMCG stocks contributed to the upward journey. However, Reality, Consumer Durable, Teck and Power stocks remained under pressure as witnessed most of the selling from these baskets. Midcap and Smallcap stocks also ended lower.

Among the Sensex pack 17 stocks ended in green territory and 13 in red. The market breadth remained flat as 1244 stocks closed in green while 1271 stocks closed in red and 91 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed marginally higher by 60.33 points at 10,335.93 while NSE Nifty ended slightly down by 8.65 points at 3,112.80. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with losses of 6.68 points and 8.82 points at 3,444.96 and 3,908.55 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,392.12 and intraday low of 10,150.68.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Grasim Industries (8.37%), ACC Ltd (7.67%), JP Associates (7.34%), Satyam Computer (7.31%), M&M Ltd (7.23%), HDFC Bank (5.53%), ICICI Bank (4.70%), Sterlite In (4.52%), Tata Motors (3.77%), TCS Ltd (3.43%) and BHEL (2.34%).

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Reliance Communication Ltd (5.65%), DLF Ltd (5.41%), Bharti Airtel (4.17%), Tata Power (3.07%), DLF Ltd (1.60%), Reliance Infra (2.79%), SBI (2.72%), NTPC Ltd (2.35%) and TCS Ltd (1.43%).

The BSE Metal index advanced by (2.02%) or 118.38 points to close at 5,987.46 as Hindustan Zinc (9.25%), Steel Authority (5.35%), Jindal Steel (5.05%), Gujarat NRE C (4.92%), Sterlite In (4.52%) and JSW Steel (2.90%) ended in green.

The BSE Bank index ended higher by (1.62%) or 95.42 points at 5,970.29. Gainers are HDFC Bank (5.53%), ICICI Bank (4.70%), Canara Bank (3.39%) and Axis Bank (1.42%).

The BSE Auto index gained (1.51%) or 38.65 points to close at 2,592.47 as M&M Ltd (7.23%), Tata Motors (3.77%), Bharat Forge (3.28%), Apollo Tyre (1.97%), Herohonda Motor (1.17%) and Maruti Suzuki (1.11%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE Reality index ended lower by (3.98%) or 98.08 points at 2,366.20. Main losers are Anant Raj (8.52%), DLF Ltd (5.41%), Unitech Ltd (3.57%), Omaxe Ltd (2.85%), Indiabull Real (2.80%) and Parsvnath (2.48%).

The BSE Consumer Durable index lost (3.34%) or 67.83 points to close at 1,960.47. Major losers are Videocon Ind (5.03%), Titan Ind (4.05%), Blue Star L (2.36%) and Gitnajali GE (1.40%).

The BSE Teck index ended down by (1.47%) or 29.71 points at 1,988.97. Major losers are Reliance Communication Ltd (5.65%), IBN18 (4.95%), Bharti Airtel (4.17%), Moser Bayer (3.95%) and Patni Computer (3.45%).

Sensex up, Nifty down in volatile market

The key benchmark indices showed a divergent trend, with the Sensex gaining 0.59% and the broader-based S&P CNX Nifty shedding 0.28%. In a choppy trade, the market rebounded from intraday low in late trade. Index heavyweights Reliance Industries (RIL), and Infosys were responsible for volatility on the bourses in late trade. A fall in these two stocks in mid-afternoon trade pulled the market sharply lower at about 14:25 IST. Both these stocks bounced back in late trading, aiding recovery on the bourses.

The market was caught between concerns about Q3 results and coordinated fiscal and monetary measures by policymakers to boost sagging growth. Analysts widely expect dismal quarterly earnings due to a sharp fall in demand, slowing economic growth and recession in major economies such as the United States, eurozone and Japan. The earnings parade will be kicked off by private sector lender Axis Bank on Friday, 9 January 2009, followed by IT bellwether Infosys Technologies on 13 January 2009.

Stocks were volatile. After a subdued start, the market moved into green in early volatile trade as Asian stocks rose. The market extended gains in morning trade, before sliding into the red again. The market later oscillated between positive and negative zones, moving in a narrow range. The market firmed up in early afternoon trade. The market extended gains in afternoon trade. It pared gains later. The market slumped in mid-afternoon trade, before bouncing back.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday, 5 January 2009, cut the repo rate and the reverse repo rate by 100 basis points each, with immediate effect. Repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks and reverse repo rate is the rate at which RBI accepts deposits from banks. After the latest cuts, the repo rate is now at 5.5% and the reverse repo is now at 4%, the lowest ever.

The RBI also announced a cut in cash reserve ratio, the proportion of deposits banks must keep with the central bank, by 50 basis points to 5% with effect from 17 January 2009. Lower interest rates may revive the domestic economy which has been slowing faster than expected due to high interest rates and the global financial crisis.

Complementing monetary easing by the RBI, the government enhanced the spending power of states with specific measures to boost credit availability in the second fiscal stimulus package. It offered additional sops to exporters and the small-scale sector, besides raising the level of protection for cement and steel sectors a tad. It has also incentivised purchase of commercial vehicles. Both the RBI and the government measures were announced after trading hours on Friday, 5 January 2009.

European shares rose on Tuesday on hopes fiscal stimulus plans by US President-elect Democrat Barack Obama and the German government will help a recovery in equities. Key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were up by between 1.07% to 1.57%. Germany's second fiscal stimulus could reach 50 billion euros, nearly double the amount expected just a week ago, reports suggest.

Asia-Pacific stocks extended recent gains on Tuesday, 6 January 2009, on hopes big government stimulus spending packages around the world will help revive growth. Key benchmark indices in China, Japan, Australia, and Taiwan were up by between 0.42% to 3%. But key benchmark indices in Hong Kong and South Korea fell by between 0.35% to 0.58%.

Many market players are looking for a large US spending package and tax cuts to help support the world's largest economy. As per reports, about 40% of US President-elect Barack Obama's economic package estimated at $775 billion would be in the form of tax breaks for businesses and the middle class.

Still, the global economy showed few signs of near-term improvement. The world's biggest auto maker Toyota Motor Corp on Tuesday, 6 January 2009, said it would suspend operations at 12 vehicle and parts plants in Japan for six days next month and five in March 2009 in response to declining demand. Britain's Nationwide Building Society today, 6 January 2009, said house prices in UK, the world's fifth biggest economy, fell another 2.5% in December to make 2008 the worst performing year on record.

In the United States, auto sales fell 36% in December 2008, figures showed on Monday 5 January 2009, to close out the weakest year since 1992 in the world's biggest market.

US stocks fell on Monday, 5 January 2009, as investors booked profits after last week's run-up, while concerns about slowing cell phone sales hit shares of the biggest telecommunications companies. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 81.80 points, or 0.91%, to 8,952.89. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index shed 4.35 points, or 0.47%, to 927.45. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 4.18 points, or 0.26%, to 1,628.03.

The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 60.33 points, or 0.59%, to 10,335.93. The Sensex rose 116.52 points at the day's high of 10,392.12 hit in late trade. The Sensex fell 124.92 points at the day's low of 10,150.68 in mid-afternoon trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty fell 8.65 points, or 0.28%, to 3,112.80.

Resumption of buying by foreign funds has boosted the market sentiment. As per provisional data released by the stock exchanges after trading hours, foreign funds on Monday, 5 January 2009, bought shares worth a net Rs 469.56 crore. Foreign funds had bought shares worth a net Rs 214.20 crore in two trading sessions from 1 January 2009 to 2 January 2009. After a sustained inflows earlier in the month in December 2008, FIIs had turned sellers towards end of that month.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.19% while BSE Small-Cap index was down 0.23%. Both the indices underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Metal index (up 2.02%), the BSE Bankex (up 1.62%), the BSE Auto index (up 1.51%), the BSE FMCG index (up 0.78%) outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Realty index (down 3.98%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (down 3.34%), the BSE Teck index (down 1.47%), the BSE Power index (down 0.96%), the BSE PSU index (down 0.62%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (down 0.03%), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 0.27%), the BSE IT index (up 0.33%), the BSE HealthCare index (up 0.48%) underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Sensex has risen 1,007.01 points or 10.79% from a recent low of 9,328.92 on 26 December 2008.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was even. On BSE, 1244 stocks advanced and 1,271 stocks fell. A total of 91 stocks remained unchanged. The breadth had turned negative in mid-afternoon trade from a strong breadth earlier in the day.

The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4,685 crore today higher than Rs 4,188.28 on Monday, 5 January 2009.

Nifty January 2009 futures were at 3126, at a premium of 13.20 points as compared to the spot closing of 3112.80. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment increased to Rs 39,420.34 crore, from Rs 34,219.31 crore on Monday, 5 January 2009.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 0.17% to Rs 1,368.05 after its unit Reliance Petroleum (RPL) started processing crude at its 5,80,000 barrels per day refinery on 25 December 2008. The stock was highly volatile and moved between positive and negative zone. The stock rose 1.33% at the day's high and fell 2.47% at the day's low.

Telecom stocks slipped on concerns of tighter profit margins due to stronger competition. India's second largest telecom services provider by sales Reliance Communication fell 5.65% as investors booked profit after a recent sharp surge. It had gained 23.91% to Rs 263.75 on 5 January 2009 from Rs 212.85 on 29 December 2008, after it announced a nationwide rollout of its GSM-based cellular services during trading hours on 30 December 2008.

India's largest telecom services provider by sales Bharti Airtel slipped 4.17% on fears the company may reduce tariffs to retain costumers following an aggressive nationwide rollover of the GSM-based cellular services by Reliance Communication (RCom).

Realty shares fell on reports recent steps taken by the government to boost the housing sector are not enough to boost housing demand. DLF, Housing Development & Infrastructure, Indiabulls Real Estate and Unitech fell by between 2.8% to 5.41%.

In an effort to boost the cash-starved realty sector, the government on 2 January 2009 allowed the developers of integrated townships to borrow funds from overseas and also asked states to release land for low- and middle-income housing schemes. Earlier, as part of the first stimulus package announced last month, the public sector banks had lowered rates on home loans up to Rs 20 lakh.

Steel stocks rose after the government on 2 January 2009 withdrew exemptions from countervailing duty on TMT bars, used in construction activity. Bhushan Steel, JSW Steel, Steel Authority of India, Jindal Steel rose by between 2.9% to 5.35%.

India's largest steel maker by sales, Tata steel rose 0.67% on reports of signing an agreement with Northern Iron of Australia for supply of iron ore concentrates to its UK unit Corus. This is a positive development for the company as it would provide stable iron ore linkages for Corus.

India's largest zinc maker by sales Hindustan Zinc rose 9.25% after the government on, 2 January 2009, withdrew exemption from basic customs duty on zinc.

Banking shares rose on speculation falling bond yields and lower rates would accelerate loan growth and profitability. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 4.7% after its American depository receipt (ADR) rose 1.89% on Monday, 5 January 2009. The bank had recently cut its main lending rates by 50 basis points from Wednesday, 31 December 2008.

India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank gained 5.53% even as its ADR fell 3.69% on Monday. However, India's biggest bank in terms of total assets and branch network, State Bank of India fell 2.72%.

India's largest dedicated housing finance firm by operating income HDFC rose 3.43%.

Outsourcing firms fell on fears a weak global economy would cut the amount firms spent on technology. India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services fell 1.43%. India's third largest IT exporter by sales Wipro fell 1.18% as its ADR fell 0.72% on Monday.

India's second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys fell 0.58% to Rs 1,167.65. The stock came off the session's low of Rs 1,146.35.

India's fourth largest IT exporter by sales Satyam Computer Services surged 7.31% after the company denied media reports that Tech Mahindra was considering an all-share merger deal with the company. Talks of a management change at Satyam have been doing the rounds since mid-December 2008, following its botched attempt to take over two infrastructure companies owned by the family of Satyam's founder Ramalinga Raju.

Cement stocks extended gains after the government on 2 January 2009 reinstated the countervailing duty on structural cement which will help protect the domestic industry from cheaper imports. ACC and Ambuja Cements rose by between 7.31% to 8.62%.

Grasim Industries jumped 8.37% and UltraTech Cement rose 11.8%. The Aditya Birla Group said on Friday (2 January 2009) that the group's cement dispatches rose 13.4% to 2.98 million tones in December 2008 over December 2007. The group's cement business includes flagship Grasim Industries and UltraTech Cement, with combined production capacity of 35 million tonnes a year.

Infrastructure stocks extended recent gains on government's measures to make funds available for the infrastructure sector. Nagarjuna Construction Company, Hindustan Construction Company and Gammon India rose by between 0.43% to 6.34%.

India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro fell 0.68%, giving up a 1.58% gain triggered by the company announcement during trading hours its buildings and factories segment, a part of its construction division, had bagged orders aggregating to Rs 1100 crore in the quarter ended December 2008. The stock had fallen 2.62% at the day's low in early trade ahead of the announcement which it the market in early afternoon trade.

Maytas Infra gained 4.3% after the company said it got a construction order worth Rs 110 crore from the Southern Railways.

Government on 2 January 2009 said India Infrastructure Finance Company (IIFCL), which has already been authorized to raise Rs 10,000 crore through tax free bonds by 31 March 2009 for refinancing bank lending of longer maturity to eligible infrastructure bid based public-private partnership projects, will be accessing the market next week for raising the first tranche of the amount. This will enable the funding of mainly highways and port projects on hand of about Rs 25000 crore.

To fund additional projects of about Rs 75,000 crore at competitive rates over the next 18 months, IIFCL will be allowed access in tranches an additional Rs.30,000 crores by way of tax free bonds once funds raised in the current year are effectively utilized.

Bharati Shipyard galloped 5.41% after the founder of Great Offshore pledged another 8 lakh shares, or 2.15%, of the company to Advitiya Urja, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bharati Shipyard.

BGR Energy Systems soared 10.58% after the company raised Rs 2,105 crore of loan for its working capital requirements from a consortium of five banks.

Unitech clocked the highest volume of 3.06 crore shares on BSE. Reliance Natural Resources (2.47 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (Rs 2.17 crore shares), IFCI (2.06 crore shares) and Jaiprakash Associates (1.23 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked the highest turnover of Rs 274.89 crore on BSE. Reliance Capital (Rs 240.94 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 177.43 crore), Satyam Computer Services (Rs 165.13 crore) and Reliance Natural Resources (Rs 155.51 crore) were the turnover toppers in that order

Pre Session Commentary - Jan 6 2009

Today the markets are likely to open positive as most of the other Asian markets are trading in green. The US markets have shed marginal loss and closed in red, however the domestic sentiments have shown some firmness in yesterday’s trade. Today one could witness some selling pressures as in the last trading days the bourses have gained enough strength. The domestic economic scenario seems to be positive and the sentiments have also exuded some relative strength. The global economic factors would have little impact on the domestic flow of markets. Despite the positive cues the volatility is likely to creep in today’s trade however with a positive bias.

On Monday, the markets opened with a positive gap and maintained its firmness till the end. Towards the end the sentiments gained enough strength to push the markets above 10300 levels. The stimulus package seemed to have worked in building the positive atmosphere across domestic financial markets. The bulls were also supported by the positive sentiments prevailing across other Asian markets and European markets. All the Asian markets closed in green, whereas in European markets except the CAC 40 all other markets closed in green. In the domestic arena, sectors like Metal, Oil & Gas, Bankex, CG and IT kept the charm of the markets with phenomenal gains of 5.54%, 5.10%, 3.53%, 2.83% and 2.40% respectively. Sensex and Nifty gained 3.19% and 2.45% respectively. During the session we expect the markets to be trading volatile with positive bias.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 317.38 points at 10,275.60 and NSE Nifty ended higher by 74.70 points at 3,121.45. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with gains of 60.46 points and 46.92 points at 3,451.64 and 3,917.37 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,306.17 and intraday low of 10,069.11.

On Monday, the US markets closed in red. Despite there is news that the tax cut making could be $300 billion, the markets couldn’t sustain its charm of the previous week. Consumer spending is of particular concern to economists since it accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity. Therefore an effort to stimulate spending is being taken and Federal Reserve plans to spur consumer lending, and now President-Elect Obama is putting together $300 billion in tax cuts for individuals. On the other hand, total construction spending fell 0.6% in December, which isn’t as bad as the 1.4% drop that was widely expected. US light crude oil for February delivery rose $2.47 to settle at $48.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed down with 81.80 points at 8,952.89 NASDAQ index lost 4.18 points at 1,628.03 and the S&P 500 (SPX) also closed lower by 4.35 points to close at 1,628.03 points.

Indian ADRs ended mixed. In technology sector, Infosys gained by 3.34% and Patni Computers gained by 1.68%, further Wipro ended with a loss of 0.72% and Satyam closed high by 0.11%. In banking sector ICICI Bank gained 1.89% while HDFC Bank lost 3.69%. In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication gained by 3.84%, while MTNL declined by 2.51%.

Today the major stock markets in Asia have opened positive. The Shanghai Composite is trading high by 25 points at 1,905.72 while Hang Seng is flat at 15,567.43. Further Japan''s Nikkei is high by 101.55 points at 9,144.67. South Korea’s Seoul Composite is high by 26.18 points at 1,199.75 and Singapore’s Strait Times is high by 5.48 points at 1,930.35.

The FIIs on Monday stood as net buyer in equity and debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 832.00 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 2120.00 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 718.00 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 119.30 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs 114.00 Crore and Rs 2000.70 Crore respectively.

On Monday, Indian Rupee for the day of the year closed at 48.56 per dollar as compared to Friday’s close of 48.58/60. The rupee in its early trade had rallied to 48.15 on the back of monetary ease announced by RBI on Friday evening.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 39.23 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 4,188.28 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 80.89 Crore and total turnover was Rs 10,884.82 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with 94815809 shares, Suzlon Energy with total volume traded 30113714 shares, Satyam with 24865442 shares followed by Reliance Petro with 17997020 shares and SAIL with 16940776 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 725405 with a total turnover of Rs 10,356.46 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 946349 with a total turnover of Rs 10,064.32 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 821519 with a total turnover of Rs 12,810.20 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 87653 and notional turnover was Rs 988.33 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 3,089 and resistance at 3,174 and BSE Sensex has support at 10,145 and resistance at 10,492.

RBI Monetary Measures & Fiscal Stimulus package update

RBI Monetary Measures & Fiscal Stimulus package update - II.

SGX Nifty Live Update - 2 - Jan 6 2009

SGX Nifty pares gains , and is trading at 3,136.5 and is +2.5 points

Market may exhibit volatility

Mixed Asian markets in opening trades and negative close in US market may hold the investors from taking any fresh positions. However, the market witnessed a solid pull back on yesterday may help the market to move northwards. Among the indices, the Nifty could test higher levels around the 3,160, while on the downside it has a key support at 3,080. The Sensex has a likely support at 10,125 and may face resistance at 10,425.

Us indices moved down on Mondayas investors digested President-elect Barack Obama's stimulus plan, monthly auto sales and surging oil prices. While the Dow Jones lost 82 points at 8953, the Nasdaq slipped by 4 points at 1628.

Crude oil prices are moving up further, while the Nymex light crude oil for February delivery rose by $2.47 to close at $48.81 a barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for December series lost by $21.70 to settle at $857.80 an ounce.

Technical Trends - Jan 6 2009

Technical Trends - Jan 6 2009

Derivatives - Jan 6 2009

Derivatives - Jan 6 2009

Morning Note - Jan 6 2009

Morning Note - Jan 6 2009

Trading Calls - Jan 6 2009

Nifty (3121) Sup: 3079
Res: 3162

Buy R Com (263) SL 259
Target 270, 273

Buy Glenmark (300) SL 295
Target 310, 312

Buy Financial Tech (536) SL 530 Target 549, 551

Sell DLF (296) SL 301
Target 286, 284

Sell Wipro (246) SL 250
Target 238, 236

Daily News Roundup - Jan 6 2009

Tech Mahindra has approached Satyam Computer Services for an all-share merger. (ET)

Tata Teleservices has sold 49% stake in its telecom tower and infrastructure arm to Quippo Telecom Infrastructure. (ET)

Tata Tele plans to launch GSM mobile services by 2009-end. (ET)

Tata Power moves to court against Reliance Power for diverting coal from the captive mines of Sasan Ultra Mega Power Project for use in other projects. (ET)

Ispat Industries has approached lenders for a second corporate debt restructuring package. (ET)

IVRCL has bagged orders worth Rs2.6bn from Bangalore Metro Rail Corporation, IOC and Karnataka water supply board. (FE)

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board has given authorization to Indraprastha Gas to sell CNG to automobiles and piped gas to households in NCT. (FE)

Punjab National Bank has slashed interest rate on non-resident deposits for dollar, British pound and euro effective from January 1. (ET)

Bharti Airtel to launch services in Sri Lanka on January 12. (ET)

Reliance Communications has rolled out its GSM services in Punjab. (FE)

GTL Ltd board to meet next week for considering buy-back and merger of Malaysia based step-down subsidiary Ada Cellworks Wireless Engineering. (FE)

Infotech Enterprises has formed Infotech Enterprises Japan KK as its wholly-owned subsidiary firm in Japan. (FE)

Aditya Birla Nuvo is reviewing its garment export operations parked with wholly-owned subsidiary Madura Garments Exports. (ET)

Daiichi Sankyo may book non-cash valuation loss of US$3.9bn on Ranbaxy buy in Q3 FY09. (ET)

Promoters of Great Offshore have pledged another 2.15% stake with Bharati Shipyard to raise money taking the total pledged shares to 14.8%. (ET)

Hindustan Unilever has cut prices of Lifebuoy soap by 7-9%. (BS)

Alok Industries plans to raise Rs4.5bn through rights issue. (FE)

Indian Hotels plans to enter serviced apartment business and expand its wildlife resorts portfolio. (BS)

JSW Steel to consider reviving output in January 2009. (FE)

UCO Bank is likely to come with a follow-on public offer soon. (FE)

Sun Pharma offers higher price to Taro Pharmaceuticals to settle row. (ET)

BGR Energy has raised Rs21.05bn for working capital expenses from a consortium led by SBI. (BL)

BEML Ltd to set up a new unit at Kinfra park with an investment of Rs2.6bn. (BL)

The Government may allow LIC to fund individual infrastructure projects beyond the existing 10% exposure norm. (ET)

Small and medium-sized firms may be taxed for outsourced work. (ET)

The Government will allow FDI only in allied nuclear business. (ET)

The Government may announce sectoral packages in February before Vote-On-Account. (ET)

India’s deficit in edible oils is expected to widen to more than 8.1mn tons by 2020 from the current 4.7mn tons. (FE)

Government gives service tax exemptions to certain services offered by Goods Transport Agencies. (BL)

RBI might reinstate Rs30bn daily cap on reverse repurchases. (BL)

Government may allocate Rs40bn to help state transport undertakings to replace their ageing bus fleets over the next six months. (BS)

Three cheers over…time for choppiness now

Nothing’s better than the wind to your back, the sun in front of you…

After a year of headwinds, the bulls got some tailwind as the New Year brought some cheer with the key indices rising three days in a row. The Sensex and the Nifty closed above key psychological levels, aided by strong buying by FIIs as well as local institutions. Some short covering also propelled Monday's strong gains. The Fiscal Stimulus Package II and RBI's aggressive monetary easing have heightened hopes for a better year ahead. More fiscal measures could be announced in the Vote-On-Account next month to ensure a faster economic recovery.

The undertone has definitely improved a notch or two, so we hope. The optimism stems from the belief that India is better placed than most economies, and global funds may find it hard to resist. A big concern is the health of India Inc. In this context, the upcoming results will prove to be a litmus test and set the tone for the months ahead. Among the other events to watch out would be the shift in regime in the US.

Today, we see the market opening flat to slightly positive. There may be some cooling at higher levels. On the whole, we expect some choppiness after the recent spurt.

Foreign and domestic funds were net buyers (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday, at Rs4.7bn and Rs2.2bn, respectively. In the F&O segment, FIIs were net buyers of Rs11.5bn. Foreign funds were net buyers of Rs1.14bn in the cash segment on Friday. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs722mn on Friday.

US stocks fell for the first time in four sessions on Monday, with investors taking some profit after last week's rally amid another dismal month for the beleaguered auto industry.

After closing at an eight-week high Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, shed 81.8 points, or 0.9%, to end at 8,952.89.

Twenty-two of the Dow's 30 components closed in the red, with shares of J.P. Morgan Chase slumping 6.7% after Deutsche Bank cut its estimates on the bank. Verizon Communications also weighed on the blue-chip index, its shares losing 6.2% in the wake of its downgrade by Bernstein Research.

The S&P 500 index lost 4.35 points, or 0.5%, to settle at 927.45, with telecommunication services, health care and financials fronting sector declines. The energy sector fared the best, with shares including Consol Energy fronting the gains, up 8.5%.

The Nasdaq Composite index declined 4.18 points, or 0.3%, to 1,628.03, with tech stocks dipping. Apple shares rose after CEO Steve Jobs acknowledged health problems but said he would stay on as the company's chief executive.

Apple shares gained 4.2% after Jobs said that he is undergoing treatment for a hormone imbalance that has caused him to lose weight. Jobs made his comments in an open letter to the Apple community.

Separately, Tyson Foods said CEO dick Bond has stepped down from his post at the big meat producer. Tyson shares fell 6%.

On Capitol Hill, President-elect Barack Obama was meeting with congressional leaders of both parties as he tries to shore up support for his economic-stimulus package and about $300bn in tax cuts.

Also, a House panel held a hearing on the Bernard Madoff scandal, which cost investors an estimated $50bn.

While the major US gauges were lower, the broader market was higher, with winners topping losers on the New York Stock Exchange. On the Nasdaq, winners and losers were roughly even. Market breadth was mixed.

November construction spending held up better than had been expected. Spending fell 0.6% versus forecasts for a drop of 1.4%. Spending fell 0.4% in the previous month.

The US automakers reported disappointing December sales. Ford Motor said sales fell 32% in the month, a slightly narrower loss than what analysts had been expecting. General Motors said sales fell 31% in December, also slightly narrower than what analysts had forecast.

Toyota reported that sales fell 37% in the month, while Chrysler reported sales fell 53%.

Treasury prices tumbled, raising the corresponding yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 2.47% from 2.37% on Friday. Yields on the 2-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasurys all hit record lows last month.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate rose to 1.42% from 1.41% Friday, a 4-1/2-year low. Overnight Libor held steady at 0.12%. Libor is a key bank lending rate.

The dollar gained versus the euro and yen.

US light crude oil for February delivery rose $2.47 to settle at $48.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for February delivery fell $21.70 to settle at $857.80 an ounce.

Gasoline prices rose 1.4 cents to a national average of $1.672 a gallon, according to a survey of credit-card swipes released Monday by motorist group AAA.

On Tuesday, the Institute for Supply Management releases its survey of the services sector of the economy. The December index is expected to have dipped to 37.0 from 37.3 in November, remaining deep in recessionary territory.

The government's November factory orders report is due around the same time. Orders are expected to have fallen 2.6% after having fallen 5.1% in October.

The November pending home sales index is also due in the morning, while the afternoon brings the release of the minutes from the last Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting in December.

On Friday, the Labor Department is expected to report a decline of 500,000 jobs in December, which would translate into a loss of more than 2 million jobs for 2008.

European shares extended the new year's winning streak on Monday. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 2.1% to close at 208.69, bringing gains for the first two trading sessions of 2009 to almost 5%. The Stoxx 600 index fell 46% in 2008, its worst year on record.

Other national indexes in Europe traded more in a lackluster fashion, with Germany's DAX 30 index gaining 0.2% to close at 4.983.99, the UK's FTSE 100 index up 0.4% at 4,579.64 and the French CAC-40 index up 0.3% at 3,359.92.

Markets extended gains for third straight trading session in the year as bulls were in complete control over the bourses. Firm cues from the international equity markets further boosted the sentiments on Dalal Street. Buying was witnessed in the metals’, oil & gas, banking and capital goods stocks which saw the NSE Nifty and the BSE Sensex end above the 3,100 and the 10,200 mark. However, the realty and the FMCG stocks witnessed some offloading.

Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex ended at 10,275 surging 317 points and the NSE Nifty index ended at 3,121 up 74 points.

Among the BSE Sectoral indices BSE Metal index (up 6.2%), BSE Oil & Gas index (up 5.5%) and BSE Bankex index (up 3.5%). On the other hand BSE Realty index slipped 0.7% and the BSE FMCG index (down 0.5%).

Market breath was positive, 1,661 stocks advanced against 878 declines, while, 74 stocks remained unchanged.

Among the 30-components of Sensex, 23 stocks were in the positive terrain and only 7 stocks ended in the red.

Shares of GTL Ltd surged by over 5% to Rs217 after the company announced that it plans to consider share buyback on January 15, 2009. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs228 and a low of Rs206 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.

Ahluwalia Contracts was locked at 5% upper circuit to Rs33.7 after the company announced that it won order worth Rs3.94bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs33.7 and a low of Rs33.7 and recorded volumes of over 55,000 shares on BSE.

Satyam Computer slipped by 6% to Rs166. According to reports, the company is exploring a merger with HCL Technologies and MindTree. HCL, with whom discussions are on for a cash-less merger. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs181 and a low of Rs161 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Emami ended lower by 3% to Rs218. According to reports, the company plans to hive off Zandu Chemicals, a subsidiary of Zandu Pharma. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs230 and a low of Rs202 and recorded volumes of over 4,000 shares on BSE.

After surging past the 3100 levels, markets would carry forward the momentum atleast in the morning trades on Tuesday. However, profit booking at higher levels cannot be ruled out.

Daily Technicals - Jan 6 2009

Daily Technicals - Jan 6 2009

India Economic growth estimates maintained - Citi

Citi retained its forecast for India's economic growth in fiscal 2009 and 2010 on "positive co-ordinated measures" by the central bank and the finance ministry.

"These measures are positive and we maintain our FY 2009 and FY 2010 GDP estimates of 6.8 percent and 5.5 percent respectively," Citi said in a research note today.

Since the intensification of the financial crisis in September 2008, the government has taken several monetary and fiscal measures to stem deceleration in growth.

These include interest rate cuts, relaxation of external commercial borrowing (ECB) norms, increase in FII limits in corporate debt as well as sector-specific measures.

"While we expect further monetary easing in the coming months, the government has said this would be its last fiscal stimulus in FY 2009," said Citi analyst Rohini Malkani in the note.

On the monetary stimulus, she said the total liquidity injected into the system since September through CRR cuts and other liquidity measures work out to over Rs 3,00,000 crore.

"The key is now whether and how soon the policy rate cuts and liquidity injection get translated into lower and easier credit availability to the real economy," Malkani noted.

Citi said there were "many positive measures" on the fiscal front. These are increased central government spending by Rs 20,000 crore, excise cut by 4 percent and allowing states to raise additional borrowing to the tune of Rs 30,000 crore.

On other measures focused on countering recessionary trends and making external credit easier, Citi said, "An extremely positive and long-awaited move was the removal of the all-in-cost ceilings on external commercial borrowing."

India IT Earnings Preview Q3FY09

India IT Earnings Preview Q3FY09

ICSA India

We recommend a buy in ICSA India from a short-term trading perspective. It is evident from the chats of ICSA India that it was on an intermediate-term downtrend from August peak to late December 2008 low (from Rs 400 to Rs 127). However, the stock found support at this December low and reversed direction. This trend reversal has been backed by positive divergence displaying in the weekly relative strength index (RSI). A positive divergence is also noticed in daily moving average and convergence and divergence. On January 2, the stock penetrated its intermediate-term down trendline by jumping 6 per cent, accompanied with good volume. Subsequently, it breached 21-day moving average, reinforcing the bullishness. The daily RSI is rising in the neutral region towards the bullish zone and weekly RSI is on the brink of entering the neutral region from the bearish zone. We are bullish on the stock from a short-term perspective. We expect it to move up until it hits our price target of Rs 166. Traders with short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 142.

via BL

Nifty January 2009 futures above 3100

Turnover rises

Nifty January 2009 futures were at 3133, at a premium of 11.55 points as compared to the spot closing of 3121.45. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment rose to Rs 34,219.31 crore, from Rs 31,631.68 crore on Friday, 2 January 2009.

Unitech January 2009 futures were at discount at 47 compared to the spot closing of 47.60.

ICICI Bank January 2009 futures were at discount at 499 compared to the spot closing of 499.90.

State Bank of India January 2009 futures were near spot price at 1360.60 compared to the spot closing of 1360.80.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty jumped 74.70 points or 2.45% at 3121.45.

SGX Nifty Live Update - Jan 6 2009

SGX Nifty currently at 3,153.5 and is trading +19.5 points

Bullion metals turn pale

Strong dollar lays its fingerprint on precious metals

Bullion metal prices ended lower on Monday, 05 January, 2009 due to the strong dollar. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Monday, Comex Gold for February delivery fell $21.7 (2.5%) to close at $857.8 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It fell to a low of $843.5 during intra day trading. Last week, gold prices gained 1%. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (15%) since then.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index has gained 12% that year. In the last quarter, gold prices ended marginally higher by 0.6%. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.

On Monday, Comex silver futures for March delivery fell 1.9% to $11.29 an ounce. Last week, silver has gained 9%. For 2008, silver lost 24%.

At the currency market on Monday, the dollar was up against most major counterparts. The dollar index gained 1%.

In the crude market on Monday, crude futures went higher. Crude for February delivery ended up $2.47 or 5.3%, at $48.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Last year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March 2008 as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the last move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 0.25% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in nine steps.

Prior to 2008, gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for February delivery closed lower by Rs 227 (1.7%) at Rs 13,329 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 13,548 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 13,185 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for March delivery closed Rs 284 (1.5%) lower at Rs 18,362/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 18,572/kg and fell to a low of Rs 17,627/Kg during the day's trading.

Crude continues with its upward journey

Mid East tension takes crude higher by more than 9% in two sessions

Ongoing conflicts at Middle East, OPEC's production cut and a hopeful stimulus plan from President Elect Barack Obama took crude prices higher on Monday, 05 January, 2009.

On Monday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for February delivery closed at $48.81/barrel (higher by $2.47 or 5.3%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. During intra day trading, prices touched a high of $49.28. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 65% since then. Year to date, in 2009, crude prices have shot up by 9.2%.

Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.

As per latest reports, thousands of Israeli troops backed by tanks and helicopter gunships entered the Gaza Strip over the weekend and fought Hamas militants at close range.

Russia's conflict with Ukraine over supply of natural gas also pushed up crude prices higher today.

Hopes that OPEC will improve its compliance with production cuts also helped oil prices higher.

After a meeting in Oran, Algeria, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels a day from its actual September production level of 29.045 million barrels a day on 17 December, 2008. The production cut was effective on 1 January, 2009. Excluding previously announced cuts, OPEC will actually cut its daily production by 2.2 million barrels from current levels. That constitutes its biggest production cut ever.

Against this background, February reformulated gasoline also gained, up 6.5% to $1.1824 a gallon, and February heating oil jumped 6.5% to $1.5763 a gallon. Year to date, gasoline is up 11.1% and heating oil is up 9.1%.

February natural-gas futures rose 1.7% to $6.072 per million British thermal units in Nymex trading.

At the MCX, crude oil for January delivery closed at Rs 2,316/barrel, higher by Rs 61 (2.7%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for January delivery closed at Rs 288.7/mmbtu, lower by Rs 1.8/mmbtu (0.61%).

Auto Earnings Preview - Q3FY09

Auto Earnings Preview - Q3FY09

Results Preview - Q3FY09

Results Preview - Q3FY09