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Tuesday, November 04, 2008

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 4 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
4/11/2008 519485 ASIA IND NET ATUL NAGINBHAI CHAUHAN S 21656 13.54
4/11/2008 511664 BGIL FL TEC JINESH BHATT B 50695 16.26
4/11/2008 532845 BHAGWATI BAN RAJSHAH ENTERPRISE PVT.LTD B 405804 27.91
4/11/2008 532927 ECLERX BSMA LIMITED S 166105 99.00
4/11/2008 513059 G.S. AUTO SURYA INVESTMENT S 24598 31.80
4/11/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN SAJEEVE THOMAS B 24000 304.00
4/11/2008 532519 JK SUGAR LTD VINITA SINGHANIA B 90464 14.53
4/11/2008 532519 JK SUGAR LTD RAGHUPATI SINGHANIA B 126000 14.51
4/11/2008 532519 JK SUGAR LTD TERRESRIAL FINANCE LTD. S 167866 14.51
4/11/2008 532714 KEC INTERN BSMA LIMITED S 620000 129.75
4/11/2008 523574 PANTAL RETAI JM FINANCIAL MUTUAL FUND S 825000 240.00
4/11/2008 526407 RIT PRO IND SHREE ATAM VALLABH POLY PLSTI S 64971 44.02
4/11/2008 521206 SAMTEX FASHI MEGA RESOURCES LTD S 60000 5.76
4/11/2008 520086 SICAL LOG BSMA LIMITED S 472773 37.00
4/11/2008 500412 THIRUMALAI BSMA LIMITED S 225940 92.00
4/11/2008 517498 WEBEL SL ENE S. L. INDUSTRIES PVT. LTD. B 89607 175.00
4/11/2008 532795 WIRE& WIRLES BSMA LIMITED S 2500902 11.13

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Nov 4 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
04-NOV-2008,AHMEDFORGE,Ahmednagar Forgings Ltd,MSR MARKETING PRIVATE LTD,BUY,240000,36.30,-
04-NOV-2008,GOLDTECH,Goldstone Tech Ltd.,N S D NIRMAN PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,140000,45.35,-
04-NOV-2008,EASUNREYRL,Easun Reyrolle Relays,NIRMAL BANG,SELL,99011,42.04,-
04-NOV-2008,GOLDTECH,Goldstone Tech Ltd.,BLUEBERRY TRADING COMPANY PVT LTD,SELL,200000,45.35,-
04-NOV-2008,OCTAV,Octav Investments Limited,BLACKSTONE ASIA ADVISORS L.L.C. A/C THE INDIA FUND INC,SELL,16100,9.90,-

Post Session Commentary - Nov 4 2008

The Indian market bounced back sharply after mid session on news that banks were going to cut lending rates after their meeting with Finance Minister P. Chidambaram. Sentiments boosted further on the news that PSU banks have agreed to cut their prime lending rates by 75 basis points, which could be between 25-50%. Further, credit guarantee on loans will be extended to Rs 1 lakh crore and deposit rates will be cut by 50 basis points. Banking shares led the rally on hopes that interest rate cut will influence more credit flow. The NSE Nifty ended above 3,100 level and BSE Sensex above 10,600 mark. Today market opened on weak note tracking mixed cues from the global markets. Further, stocks pared some of earlier loses and were trading with bit of volatily with negative bias on concern of US Presidential election. After mid session, market made a sharp rebound from the initial fall on sustained buying interest in key stocks. In the final hours of trade, markets gained further ground and closed the day higher. On the global front, the Asian indices closed mixed, while the European indices have opened positive. From the sectoral front, stocks from the Realty, Banking, Power FMCG, Capital Goods and OIL & Gas sectors garnered investors'' interest, while selective selling pressure was seen in stocks from the IT and Teck sectors.

Among the Sensex pack 24 stocks ended in green terrain and 6 in red. The market breadth was in favour of advances as 1809 stocks closed in green while 777 stocks closed in red and 69 stocks remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 293.44 points at 10,631.12 and NSE Nifty ended up by 98.25 points at 3,142.10. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with gains of 90.68 points 3,446.22 and by 108.01 points at 4,035.11. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,668.48 and intraday low of 10,116.22.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are DLF Ltd (14.66%), Ranbaxy Lab (9.88%), JP Associates (9.82%), Tata Power (8.32%), Reliance Communications Ltd (7.67%), ITC Ltd (7.63%), ONGC Ltd (7.12%), ICICI Bank Ltd (6.53%), SBI (6.50%), Tata Steel (6.48%) and BHEL (5.38%).

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Satyam Computer (7.41%), TCS Ltd (7.38%), Wipro Ltd (4.80%), Infosys Tech (3.2%), Sterlite Industries (2.00%) and ACC Ltd (1.04%).

The BSE Reality index ended up by (12.14%) or 260.16 points at 2,402.4. Gainers are DLF Ltd (14.66%), Unitech Ltd (14.49%), Ansal Infra (13.72%), Indiabull Real (12.48%), Omaxe Ltd (12.04%), Penland Ltd (11.70%) and Parsvnath (10.39%).

The Bank index ended higher by (6.56%) or 353.65 points to close at 5,741.04 as Bank of Baroda (15.49%), Kotak Bank (14.08%), Bank of India (11.61%), Union Bank (9.02%), Indian Overseas Bank (8.28%) and Yes Bank (8.11%) in positive territory.

The BSE Power index surged (5.66%) or 95.39 points at 1,781.38. Gainers are Lanco Infra (24.50%), GVK Power (24.19%), Suzlon Energy (20.57%), Reliance Power (12.79%), Siemens Ltd (11.80%) and GMR Infra (10.46%).

The BSE FMCG index ended higher by (4.77%) or 89.29 points at 1,961.19. Major gainers are ITC Ltd (7.63%), United Brew (7.61%), Dabur India (5.00%), HUL (3.60%), Godrej Cons (2.96%) and Marico Ltd (2.31%).

The BSE Capital Goods index gained (4.61%) or 350.35 points to close at 7,942.57 as Suzlon Energy (20.57%), Lakshmi Machines (18.73%), Praj Industries (13.99%), Siemens Ltd (11.80%), Elecon Eng C (10.00%) and Reliance Industrial Infra (8.39%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE IT index lost (4.33%) or 124.41 points to close at 2,749.95. Major losers are Mphasis Ltd (7.48%), Satyam Computer (7.41%), TCS Ltd (7.38%), Wipro Ltd (4.80%), Tech Mahindra (4.20%) and HCL Tech (4.18%).

Market banks on realty and banking stocks

After gyrating almost 552 points for the day the Sensex closed the session with a gain of 293 points. The market had a gloomy start, with the mixed global indices dampening the trading sentiment and triggering an all-round selling. The Sensex touched the day's low of 10,116, down 222 points. The Sensex to recover the lost ground and the index entered into the positive territory by afternoon. Realty and Banking stocks provided the requisite support to the Sensex to touch the intra-day high of 10,668. The Sensex finally settled at 10,631, up 293 points and Nifty closed the session at 3,142, up 98 points.

The market breadth was positive, Of the 2,654 stocks traded on the BSE 1,806 stocks advanced, whereas 782 stocks declined. Sixty six stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices the BSE Realty flared up by 12.14%, BSE Bankex rose 6.56% and BSE Power moved up by 5.66%.

Barring a few, all the Sensex stocks ended at higher levels. DLF flared up 14.66% at Rs290.15, Ranbaxy Laboratories jumped up 9.88% at Rs209.15, JP Associates bounced back sharply and shot up by 9.82% at Rs89.45, Reliance Communications zoomed 7.67% at Rs250.50, ITC moved up by 7.63% at Rs170.70, ONGC scaled up 7.12% at Rs761.30, ICICI Bank surged by 6.53% at Rs459.10, State Bank of India jumped by 6.50% at Rs1,321.15 and Tata Steel gained 6.48% at Rs239.85.

Over 3.91 crore shares of Suzlon Energy changed hands on the BSE followed by Cals Refineries (2.24 crore shares), Unitech (1.70 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (1.70 crore shares), GVK Power & Infrastructure (1.63 crore shares) and IFCI (1.65 crore shares).

Valuewise, Reliance Industries clocked a turnover of Rs279 crore followed by Suzlon Energy (Rs205 crore), State Bank of India (Rs186 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs184 crore) and ICICI Bank (Rs151 crore).

Bank stocks lead a near 3% Sensex surge

Bank stocks led the rally on the domestic bourses in late trade, with gains in key overseas equity markets supporting the upmove. The BSE Sensex jumped 293.44 points or 2.84%. Bank stocks surged on hopes interest rate cuts would help credit flow more freely. But IT stocks tumbled on worries outsourcing business will be affected if Barack Obama wins the US presidential election.

Trading in US index futures suggested the Dow would rise 187 points at the opening bell. European markets, which opened after Indian market, extended gains in morning trade led by banks, oils and pharma stocks, as investors geared up for the long-awaited US Presidential election day. Key benchmark indices in France, UK and Germany were up by between 1.74% to 2.12%.

Japan's Nikkei average climbed 6.27% to its highest close in two weeks on Tuesday, 4 November 2008, as exporters gained on reports electronics maker Panasonic was planning to take over Sanyo Electric. But other Asian markets were mixed. Key benchmark indices in South Korea, China, and Taiwan were down by between 0.05% to 0.76%. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong and Singapore were up by between 0.24% to 2.15%.

Australia's All Ordinaries index moved between positive and negative zone after Australia's central bank cut its benchmark cash rate by a bigger-than-expected 75 basis points on Tuesday, 4 November 2008, in an increasingly urgent effort to save the economy from the recession rapidly engulfing much of the developed world.

The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 293.44 points or 2.84% to 10,631.12. Volatility was high. After an early slide, a sharp recovery was witnessed in afternoon trade following a solid surge in Japanese shares and on a rate cut by Australia's central bank. The index rose 330.80 points at the day's high of 10,668.48 in late trade. The Sensex declined 221.46 points at day’s low of 10,116.22 in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was up 98.25 points or 3.23% to 3,142.10.

The market has staged a solid rebound after a recent steep fall. From a low of 8,509.56 on 27 October 2008, the BSE Sensex has risen 2,121.56 points or 24.93% in five trading sessions. There has been a massive erosion in investors' wealth this year. The barometer index BSE Sensex is down 9,655.87 points or 47.59% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 10,575.65 points or 49.86% below its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4416 crore today, 4 November 2008 as compared to a turnover of Rs 3,679.49 crore on 3 November 2008.

Nifty November 2008 futures were at 3167, at a premium of 24.90 points as compared to spot closing of 3142.10. NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 33,758.52 crore, which was lower than Rs 34,113.94 crore on Monday, 3 November 2008.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was up 2.7% at 3,446.12 and the BSE Small-Cap index was up 2.75% at 4,035.11. Both the indices underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Realty index (up 12.14% to 2,402.44), ), the BSE Bankex (up 6.56% to 5,741.04), the BSE Power index (up 5.66% to 1,781.38), the BSE PSU index (up 4.82% to 5,078.65), BSE FMCG index (up 4.77% to 1,961.19), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 4.61% to 7,942.57), the BSE Metal index (up 4.13% to 5,854.67), the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 3.09% to 6,749.51) outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE IT index (down 4.33% to 2,749.95), the BSE Teck index (down 0.82% to 2,200.80), the BSE HealthCare index (up 0.75% to 2,879.38), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.01% to 2,125.78), the BSE Auto index (up 1.67% to 2,791.56), underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was strong. On BSE, 1,809 shares advanced as compared to 777 that declined. 69 shares remained unchanged.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) came off the lower levels on reports it is considering options to re-open most of its closed petrol pumps, helped by an over 50% drop in crude oil prices. The stock was up 2.01% to Rs 1466, off the day's low of Rs 1,376.

Ranbaxy Laboratories (up 9.88% to Rs 209.15), Jaiprakash Associates (up 9.82% to Rs 89.45) and Tata Power Company (up 8.32% to Rs 750.95) were the top gainers from the Sensex pack.

India’s largest electric equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) rose 5.38% on reports it is planning to triple export orders to Rs 10300 crore by 2012 in a bid to hedge against currency fluctuations related to raw material imports.

India’s largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries fell 2%.

Bank stocks jumped on reports public sector banks are likely to cut deposit and lending rates by 50 to 75 basis points within one week. India’s largest commercial bank State Bank of India rose 6.5% extending gains after its chairman O P Bhatt said today the bank was likely to cut interest rates by up to 50 basis points.

Punjab National Bank, Bank of India, Union Bank of India, Federal Bank, IDBI Bank, Canara Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Allahabad Bank and IndusInd Bank rose by between 1.75% to 11.61%.

A few public sector banks have already announced their decision to cut rates. Bank of Baroda rose 15.49% on a decision to reduce lending rates by 75 basis points (bps) with effect from Wednesday 5 November 2008.

However, Indian Bank fell 1.53% after the bank said it will consider cutting its lending and deposit rates by 50-75 basis points this week.

India’s largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 6.53% as American depository receipt (ADR) spurted 4.18% overnight. ICICI Bank's chief executive K.V. Kamath said yesterday, 3 November 2008, the bank will review interest rates in the next few days.

India’s second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank rose 3.73% as ADR jumped 4.18% on Monday.

India’s largest home loan lender by operating income HDFC jumped 1.31%.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram today said the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep a close watch on liquidity and state-run banks are ready to provide credit to the small and medium business sectors. The finance minister today met the chiefs of state-run banks.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Saturday, 1 November 2008, unexpectedly cut its main short-term lending rate viz. the repo rate to ease a growing cash squeeze, spur faltering economic growth and fend off damage from the global financial crisis.

Most realty stocks rose on hopes lower interest rates will spur demand for residential properties. Realty majors, Indiabulls Real Estate and Unitech jumped by between 12.48% to 14.49%. India’s largest real estate major by market capitalization DLF soared 14.66% to after denying reports that suggested its joint venture with Hilton was in trouble.

IT stocks tumbled on worries that if Barack Obama wins the US presidential election, the outsourcing business of the country will be curtailed and the direct impact will be on IT sector. India's third largest IT exporter by sales Satyam Computer Services fell 7.41%.

India's fourth largest IT exporter by sales Wipro fell 4.8% even as ADR rose 3.5%. Wipro is reported to be a front-runner to buy Citi group's technology and infrastructure outsourcing arm, Citi Technology Services, for about $150 million and is likely to be announced by the end of the third quarter. India's second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys slipped 5.47%, as ADR was down 2.7%.

India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services slipped 7.38%.

Zylog Systems rose 2.08%, after the company’s board approved acquisition of PEQ Consulting Inc and Fairfax Consulting Inc.

Democrat Obama has strong reservations on outsourcing and has made many statements during his election speeches that he would discourage this when he comes into power. The US Presidential Election will be held later in the day today.

Airline stocks soared on reports of further reduction in jet fuel prices. Jet Airways, Kingfisher Airlines and SpiceJet rose by between 3.55% to 6.23%.

Responding to the government’s decision to exempt jet fuel from customs duty three days ago, state-owned refiners have reportedly reduced the prices of the fuel by 4.5%. Earlier, there were anticipations that the next revision in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices may happen on 15 November 2008.

PSU OMCs rose on fall in crude oil prices. BPCL, HPCL and Indian Oil Corporation rose by between 1.43% to 6.86%. Lower oil prices will reduce underrecoveries at the state-run oil firms on domestic sale of petrol, diesel, LPG and kerosene at a controlled price.

US sweet crude oil dropped $1.19 to $62.72 a barrel today as traders continued to worry about the impact of a global economic slowdown on energy demand.

Cement stocks were mixed on muted dispatches figures for the month of October 2008. India’s largest cement maker by sales ACC fell 1.04% as cement shipments in October 2008 fell 3.4% to 1.70 million tonnes from 1.76 million tonnes a year earlier. Grasim Industries rose 2.78% and Ultratech Cement jumped 5.54% after Aditya Birla Group's cement dispatches in October 2008 rose 1.9% from a year ago to 2.54 million tonnes. The group includes flagship Grasim Industries and unit Ultratech Cement, with combined cement production capacity of 35 million tonnes a year.

Telecom stocks rose on reports government will allocate spectrum for next generation wireless networks to successful bidders by the end of January 2009 after holding an auction as planned earlier in the month. India’s largest telecom services provider by market share Bharti Airtel jumped 4.31% while Reliance Communications, India’s second largest telecom services provider by sales rose 7.67%.

Rice exporters Lakshmi Energy & Foods, KRBL and LT Overseas were up 2.23% to 11.13 % on reports India would include the premium Pusa-1121 rice under the basmati brand, helping fetch higher prices.

Mercator Lines jumped 10.74%, on Singapore unit posting 94.4% surge in net profit to $24.9 million in Q2 September 2008 over Q2 September 2007.

Champagne Indage was locked at the upper limit of 5% on BSE after a foreign fund bought a large stake in the company.

Suzlon Energy surged 20.57% after the company said it was negotiating with Portugal-based Martifer for acquiring the latter's 22.48% stake in the German firm REpower.

Siemens rose 11.8% on BSE, on bagging an overseas order.

Epic Energy gained 1.34% on bagging a contract to conduct energy audit in Arunachal Pradesh.

KEC International surged 10%, on bagging three orders aggregating Rs 235 crore from three different clients.

Balaji Telefilms slipped 4.84% as the Bombay High Court dismissed company's petition not to end a long-running daily serial on Star TV.

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries declined 4.71% on BSE, after its US unit Caraco Pharmaceutical Industries got a warning letter from the Food and Drug Administration regarding its Detroit plant.

Suzlon Energy clocked the highest volume of 3.92 crore shares on BSE. Cals Refineries (2.31 crore shares), Unitech (1.7 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (1.7 crore shares) and GVK Power & Infrastructure (1.66 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked the highest turnover of Rs 279.78 crore on BSE. Suzlon Energy (Rs 206.23 crore), State Bank of India (Rs 186.09 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 184.76 crore) and ICICI Bank (Rs 151.46 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

Profit taking may cap gains

Subdued-to-weak trend in Asian stocks may trigger profit taking on the domestic bourses after a recent steep rebound from a sharp fall. But data showing foreign funds buying for the second day in a row on Monday, 3 November 2008, and signals of a soft interest rate regime may cap the downside.

Japan's Nikkei index rose nearly 4% on Tuesday, 4 November 2008, as exporters gained on the yen's recent weakness, but other markets were down after reports pointed to a shrivelling US economy ahead of the US presidential election. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, Singapore and Taiwan were down by between 0.58% to 1.98%.

Wall Street ended the calmest session in recent memory with a narrowly mixed performance Monday, 3 November 2008, as investors largely looked past a weak reading on the manufacturing sector and focused on the election. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 5.18 points or 0.06%, to 9,319.83. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 2.45 points or 0.25%, to 966.30, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 5.38, or 0.31%, to 1,726.33.

Back home, as per provisional data released by the stock exchanges, foreign funds bought shares worth a net Rs 363.55 crore in India on Monday. They had bought shares worth a net Rs 1183.20 crore on Friday, 31 October 2008. FIIs have sold heavily in India and other emerging markets this year to shore up resources to beat the global liquidity crunch. The outflow reached Rs 50955.80 crore in calendar 2008 so far (till 31 October 2008).

Marketmen will watch the outcome of the meeting of Finance Minister P Chidambaram with the chiefs of state-owned banks. The meeting may set the tone for the state-run banks to cut lending and deposit rates, after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Saturday, 1 November 2008, unexpectedly cut its main short-term lending rate viz. the repo rate to ease a growing cash squeeze, spur faltering economic growth and fend off damage from the global financial crisis. The RBI decision boosted the BSE Sensex 5.62% on Monday, 3 November 2008. Lower rates boosts stocks as they help lift corporate bottomline by way of lower borrowing costs.

The market has staged a solid rebound after a recent steep fall. From a low of 8,509.56 on 27 October 2008, the BSE Sensex jumped 1,828.12 points or 21.48% in four trading sessions to 10,337.68 on Monday, 3 November 2008

Daily Market Outlook, Daily Technicals - Nov 4 2008

Daily Market Outlook, Daily Technicals - Nov 4 2008

SGX Nifty Update - Nov 4 2008

SGX Nifty currently down 12.0 points at 3,050.0 points

Pre Session Commentary - Nov 4 2008

Today a market is expected to have negative opening on mixed global cues. US markets ended mixed on Monday and today Asian markets are trading mostly lower. On Monday, Indian market continued its momentum on significant buying interest supported by the RBI’s triple dose of cut in its benchmark interest rates like repo rate, CRR and SLR. Contribution of the firm global cues was also important. Prime Minister''s assurance that Indian banks were safe and the government will take all necessary steps to keep the economy protected from the global financial turmoil, also gave a boost to the market. The NSE Nifty ended above 3,000 level and BSE Sensex above 10,300 mark. Today market opened on strong note tracking firm cues from the both domestic and global markets. Further, stocks continued to gain ground till end to close the day sharply higher. From the sectoral from front, all indices ended in green and buying was seen mainly in the Reality, Capital Goods, Bank, Power, Oil & Gas, Metal and FMCG stocks. Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks also ended higher with gains of more than 4% each. We expect that the profit booking may take a lead during the trading session.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 549.62 points at 10,337.68 and NSE Nifty ended up by 158.25 points at 3,043.85. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with gains of 155.52 points 3,355.54 and by 161.99 points at 3,927.10. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,373.17 and intraday low of 10,112.66.

Monday, the US markets end mixed after swinging between positive and negative terrain ahead of the presidential election. U.S. manufacturing activity in October fell 4.6 to 38.9 in October, the lowest level since 1982, according to the ISM Index survey. However, credit markets continued to show improvement. Crude oil futures for the December delivery fell $ 3.90 to $63.91 a barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange.

The NASDAQ index closed higher by 5.32 points at 1,726.33. However, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index lost 5.18 points to 9,319.83 and the S&P 500 (SPX) ended down by 2.45 points to close at 966.30 points.

Indian ADRs ended mixed. In technology sector, Patni Computers ended higher by (3.45%) along with Wipro gained (3.36%), while Infosys ended down by (2.66%) and Satyam closed lower by (0.25%). In banking sector ICICI Bank was up by (4.73%) and HDFC Bank gained (4.89%). In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication declined by (9.84%), while MTNL was up by (5.39%). Sterlite Industries decreased by (7.75%).

Today major stock markets in Asia are trading mostly lower. Hang Seng is down by 387.62 points at 13,956.75. Further Taiwan Weighted plunged 84.05 points at 4,91.01 and Singapore''s Straits Times also lost 52.84 points at 1,830.91. The South Korea’s Seoul Composite tumbled 5.9 points at 1,123.18. However, Japan''s Nikkei gained 320.89 points at 8,897.87.

The FIIs on Monday stood as net buyer in equity and net seller in debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs4111.10 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs74.70 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs2927.90 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs298.70 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs1183.20 Crore and (Rs224 Crore) respectively.

On Monday, the Indian rupee ended two weeks high at 48.64/65 from 49.44/46 at close on Friday. India''s rupee strengthened as broad dollar weakness helped sentiment for the local unit and gains in domestic shares revived hopes for fresh capital inflows.

On BSE, total number of shares traded was 30.07 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs. 3,679.49 Crore. On NSE, total volume of shares traded was 61.92 Crore and total turnover was Rs 10,106.41 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Suzlon Energy with total traded volume of 36232944 shares, followed by Unitech Ltd with 24686112 shares, RPL with 15685468 shares, Reliance Communication with 13611748 shares and Hindalco with 12102862 shares respectively.

On NSE Future and Options, total numbers of contracts traded in index futures were 834962 with a total turnover of Rs.11,736.66 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 768238 with a total turnover of Rs.8,542.13 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 840575 and total turnover was Rs.13,314.72 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 42,771 and notional turnover was Rs.520.42 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,916 and resistance at 3,112 and BSE Sensex has support at 9,929 and resistance at 10,631.

Bharti Airtel

Bharti Airtel

Volatility remains the key concern

The market is likely to exhibit weak trends on the back of a strong intra-day volatile moves. The sentiment is likely to remain sluggish on weak Asian cues. Also the FIIs remaining net sellers of equities in the domestic market may see the investors remain jittery. Among the local indices, the Nifty could test higher levels at 3100 and has a support at 3000. The Sensex on the downside may slip to 10200 and may face resistance at 10450.

US indices remained flat on Monday as investors awaited the presidential election and mulled weaker oil prices, a stronger dollar and more signs that the economy is in a recession. While the Dow Jones lost 5 points at 9320, the Nasdaq moved up by 5 points to close at 1726.

The Indian ADRs had a mixed outing on the US bourses. Tata Motors tumbled over 16% and VSNL, Infosys and Satyam fell 0.25-9% each. While, MTNL, Wipro, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Patni Computer, Dr Reddy and Rediff gained around 1-5% each.

Crude oil prices moved down, with the Nymex light crude oil for December delivery moved down by $3.90 at $63.91 a barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for December series was up by $8.60 to settle at $726.80 a troy ounce.

Daily News Roundup - Nov 4 2008

Wipro likely to buy Citigroup’s subsidiary, Citi Technology Services for US$150mn. (ET)
Reliance Industries may reopen its closed petrol pumps as crude oil prices drop by over 50%. (ET)
Union Bank of India and United Bank of India, cut lending rates by 25-50bps ahead of Finance Minister’s meeting with PSU bank chiefs. (BS)
Bharti Enterprises eyes US$10bn revenues by next year. (ET)
Bharti Enterprises and French insurance major AXA are planning to launch a private equity fund in India. (ET)
Nagarjuna Construction has received two orders worth Rs5.27bn. (ET)
KEC International has bagged three orders worth Rs2.2bn. (FE)
M&M has reported 17.8% yoy decline in total automotive sales in October at 20,282 units. (ET)
Tata Motors’ total vehicles sales including exports declined by 20% yoy to 39,729 units. (FE)
Reliance Infrastructure Ltd has bought back 0.8mn equity shares of the company in the last four days. (BL)
Israel’s Ceragon Networks has inked an agreement with Tata Tele for wireless backhaul solutions. (ET)
Wipro Infotech and Subex have jointly signed a nine-year contract with Aircel. (FE)
Reliance Retail and the UK-based supply chain powerhouse Wincanton have called off their proposed joint venture. (ET)
Religare AEGON Asset Management Company (AMC) is likely to buy out Lotus India Mutual Fund. (BS)
Wockhardt has challenged the US patent of Stalevo, a new generation combination drug for the treatment of Parkinson's disease, originated by Finland-based Orion Corporation and marketed by Novartis. (BS)
The Bombay High Court declined to stay the termination notice served by Star TV to Balaji Telefilms for one its shows. (BS)
PNB is looking at overseas acquisitions and is scouting across geographies for potential takeover targets. (BL)
Tata Steel starts work on new blast furnace for 10mn ton capacity at Jamshedpur Works. (BS)
Global spirits giant Diageo may exit its equal JV with Radico Kaitan. (ET)
SpiceJet, IndiGo and GoAir are likely to slash fares between 10% and 15% from November 15, 2008. (ET)
ACC’s cement production for October 2008 declines by 1.14% yoy to 1.74mn tons. (FE)
Tata Tea plans restructure in order to operate as a single integrated beverages company in India and to enhance its global footprint through strategic acquisitions. (FE)
The Bharti Group is aiming to reduce its dependence on the telecom sector to 50% for the group’s revenues by 2013. (BS)
Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India Private Ltd (HMSI), the wholly owned subsidiary of Honda Motor Company of Japan, plans to enhance capacity to 1.5mn units at its Manesar plant in three years.
Gujarat Pipavav Port plans to invest an additional to dredge 14.5 metre draft and further improve accessibility to the port. (ET)

FM P Chidambaram assured industry that the government will ask state-owned banks to cut interest rates. (BS)
India’s export growth slowed to an 18-month low of 10.4% in dollar terms at US$13.7bn in September 2008, against US$12.5bn in the same month last year. (BS)
Foreign funds sell FCCBs which are listed on some European stock exchanges and the Singapore Stock Exchange at hefty discounts issued by Indian companies. (BS)
LIC has invested ~Rs150bn in the past six months in non-convertible debentures issued by companies. (ET)
Banks shave corporates’ working capital limits, which will be based on average utilization of funds in last three years. (ET)
Refiners cut jet fuel rates by 4.5% responding to the government’s decision to exempt jet fuel from Customs duty. (BS)
Mutual funds see sharp shrinkage in asset base in the month of October.
Iron ore exports from the country have dropped 81% in October compared with the same period last year. (BL)
RBI said that it will repurchase dated securities — the 6.65% Government Stock (GS) 2009 and the 5.48% GS 2009 — on November,6th under the Market Stabilisation Scheme amounting to Rs100bn. (BL)
Goods and services tax (GST) to be introduced in a phased manner. (FE)
States want their share in the pool of central taxes to be increased to 50% from existing 30.5% and also Centre to bear their 50% burden while implementing the Sixth Pay Commission package. (FE)
A Parliamentary panel will meet on November 14 to discuss spectrum allocation for 2G mobile services and the launch of 3G services in the country. (ET)
The Maharashtra Government has announced that sick or closed sugar units will not be given on lease to the private sector. (FE)

Flat opening likely

It is better to know some of the questions than all of the answers.

Can the bulls sustain the current tempo? That is the big question worrying most players at the moment after the recent spurt. While the main indices could advance a little more in the near term, investors are still skeptical about a sustained turnaround. That is because considerable amount of headwinds still persist, both on the local as well as global front. The US, Europe and Japan are most probably already in recession, and though the credit crunch has eased substantially, it will be a while before the global economy is back on track.

India too remains vulnerable to a sharp slowdown despite the slew of measures unleashed by the Government and the RBI to arrest the slide. Not just FY09, a few economists see continued pain for the Indian economy in the coming fiscal year as well. India Inc. is now suffering from contraction in demand and difficulties in funding capex despite the RBI's liquidity-boosting steps. Among the positive events are the correction in commodity prices and a possible reversal of the interest rate cycle. The captains of Indian Industry are hoping for some more measures from the Government and the RBI, to help revive economic growth. While that may happen, the global downturn will continue to pinch in some ways or the other.

There is also a question mark over the sustainability of the recent FII buying, notwithstanding some revival in the global risk appetite. Today, we expect the market to open on a flat to slightly higher note. There could be some softening at higher levels after the recent rally, as most Asian stock benchmarks (barring the Nikkei), are down sharply. The main US stock indices too ended almost unchanged overnight ahead of the Presidential Election on Nov. 4. European shares rose for a fifth consecutive session.

FIIs were net buyers of Rs3.6bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Monday while the local institutions pulled out Rs970mn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs13.2bn. On Friday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs11.83bn in the cash segment.

US stocks closed nearly flat on Monday, as automakers reported dismal monthly sales and a report showed that US manufacturing activity dropped sharply in October. Investors were cautious as the race for the White House neared the finish line.

After marginal moves in either direction Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by just 5 points to end at 9,319.83, with 16 of its 30 components posting losses. The S&P 500 Index shed 2 points to 966.31, while the Nasdaq Composite index added 5 points to 1,726.33.

Market breadth was positive. But, volume was pretty thin, narrowly topping one billion on the New York Stock Exchange, with advancing stocks outpacing declining issues roughly 9 to 7.

On the eve of Election Day, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and Republican rival John McCain are making final appearances around the country, with polls consistently showing Obama ahead in the campaign for the White House.

Pacing gains among the S&P's 10 industry groups were telecommunications shares. Retail shares were mixed ahead of sales reports due later in the week. Energy shares proved the biggest laggards.

Lending rates continued to improve amid efforts of US and world governments to get money flowing again. Treasury prices rose, lowering the corresponding yields. Oil prices slipped and the dollar gained versus other major currencies.

Meanwhile, slumping manufacturing and construction activity, and plunging auto sales, added to bets that a recession is already underway. In the afternoon, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher forecast that there will be no economic growth through 2009.

Additionally, in the afternoon, the government said it will borrow a record $550bn in the fourth quarter and another $368bn in the first quarter of next year as it looks to fund the massive financial rescue plans recently put in place.

A huge drop in October auto sales left the industry on track to post the worst monthly results in 25 years. GM reported a 45% decline in October sales, versus a year ago. Ford reported October sales plunged 30% versus a year ago.

The dollar fell against the euro and gained against the yen. COMEX gold for January delivery climbed $8.60 to settle at $727.50 an ounce. Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.91% from 3.96% late on Friday.

US light crude oil for December delivery fell $3.90 to settle at $63.91 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gasoline prices fell another 2.1 cents overnight, to a national average of $2.415 a gallon.

Investors were playing it cautious ahead of Election Day. Analysts say investors will be glad to have the election over and to know that a change in administration is coming, regardless of whether Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama wins.

Although Wall Street would seem to prefer business-friendly Republicans, studies have shown that stocks tend to do better under Democratic presidents than Republicans and best during times of gridlock, when one party controls the White House and another the Congress.

Across the Atlantic, European shares rose for a fifth consecutive session, as investors continued to welcome central banks' efforts to shore up sentiment.

The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 0.6% to 223.38. The French CAC-40 added 1.2% to 3,527.97, while Germany's DAX 30 advanced 0.8% to 5,026.84 and the UK's FTSE 100 closed up 1.5% at 4,443.28.

Bulls started off November with a bang led by a rally in banking, realty and capital goods stocks. Further on, firm cues from the international equity markets coupled with the PM's assurance on growth initiatives also added to market sentiment.

The upswing propelled the BSE benchmark Sensex above 10K levels to close at 10,337. While, the NSE Nifty index surged past the 3,000 mark adding 158 points to finally end at 3,043 levels.

IDFC rallied by over 12% to Rs65 after reports stated that the company was in talks with GE Commercial Finance, to acquire about 35% stake in the latter’s construction equipment finance business in India. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs67 and a low of Rs60 and recorded volumes of over 61,00,000 shares on BSE.

PTC India surged by over 7% to Rs56 after reports stated that the company was looking at picking up stakes in power generation projects across the country. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs57 and a low of Rs54 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,000 shares on BSE.

BEL advanced by 6% to Rs641 following reports that the company plans to set up its third central research laboratory at Hyderabad, which will focus on research in emerging technologies in the fields of opto-electronics and electronic warfare. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs645 and a low of Rs622 and recorded volumes of over 7,000 shares on BSE.

Tata Chemicals gained by 5% to Rs166 after the company reported results for the second quarter ended 30 September, 2008.

The revenue stood at Rs466.1mn with an increase of 169% yoy. The profit before tax has increased by 120% at Rs58.7mn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs169 and a low of Rs161 and recorded volumes of over 3,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Jyoti Ltd surged by over 3% to Rs35 after reports stated that the company has entered into technology tie-ups with German and Dutch companies for its windmill project. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs38 and a low of Rs32 and recorded volumes of over 11,000 shares on BSE.

Apollo Tyres advanced by over 2% to Rs24 after reports stated that the company would begin its operations in Europe by opening its first sales, marketing and technical office in Germany in January. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs25.2 and a low of Rs23.9 and recorded volumes of over 3,00,000 shares on BSE.

Zylog Systems gained by 5% to Rs115 after reports stated that it would spend US$17.5mn for acquiring three overseas companies. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs118 and a low of Rs112 and recorded volumes of over 68,000 shares on BSE.

Zee News gained by 2.5% to Rs38.7 after the company announced that it acquired 26% stake in Sky B, West Bengal, stated reports. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs40 and a low of Rs37 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on BSE.

Looking at Monday’s rally, bulls might extend the gains atleast in the early trades. The fall in inflation and drop in crude prices may augur well for the time being but we still have to get some confidence. For the time being, avoid some fresh buying at higher levels in large quantities as we are yet to get clarity on the economy.

Precious metals bring some glaze back

Gold and silver prices rise after three sessions of drop

After three sessions of loss, gold prices ended higher on Monday, 03 November, 2008. Traders anticipated that bullion metals are done with current low levels that they have attained in recent times. Silver prices also rose today.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. Losses in equity markets had also forced traders to sell gold. Since past couple of weeks, precious metals, mainly gold, had dropped as traders tried to gain back some of the money that had lost in other markets.

On Monday, Comex Gold for December delivery rose $8.6 (1.2%) to close at $726.8 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (30.5%) since then. Last week, gold prices ended lower by 1.6%. For the month of October, gold ended lower by 18%. It was the biggest percentage loss for gold since February, 1983.

This year, gold prices have lost 12.7% till date. The dollar index has gained 13.5% this year and of that almost 8% in October, 2008 itself. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.

On Monday, Comex silver futures for December delivery rose by 2 cents (0.2%) to $9.75 an ounce. Last week, silver fell 1.9%. For the month of October, silver slipped by 20%. Till date, silver has lost 35% this year. Silver had ended month and quarter of September 2008 with a loss of 10%. For the second quarter, it had gained a paltry 1.4%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. The metal also had gained for seven straight years.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies. On the other hand, a lower dollar pushes up precious metal prices as their demand lessens as it becomes cheaper for traders holding other currencies. Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices and vice versa.

In the currency market on Monday, the U.S. dollar posted broad-based gains against other major currencies rising both against the British pound and the euro ahead of key interest rate decisions in Europe due later this week. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, rose 1.3% to 86.35.

On Monday, crude for December delivery closed at $63.91, lower by 5.8%. It gained 5.7% last week but ended 32.6% lower for the month of October, 2008.

Earlier this year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records this year for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the latest move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 1% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in eight steps.

Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for December delivery closed lower by Rs 118 (1%) at Rs 11,614 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 11,777 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 11,545 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for December delivery closed Rs 180 (1.06%) lower at Rs 16,768/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 17,100/kg and fell to a low of Rs 16,617/Kg during the day’s trading.

Crude plunges

Prices slip by almost 6% on demand concerns and firm dollar

Crude prices ended with losses on Monday, 03 November, 2008. The firm dollar and the current global crisis were the main reasons behind the subdued crude prices. Today’s weak economic data also added to this.

On Monday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for December delivery closed at $63.91/barrel (higher by $3.9 or 5.8%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 57% since then. Last week, prices rose by 5.7%. On a yearly basis, crude price is lower by 33%. For this year in 2008, crude prices have dropped 35.2%.

For the month of October, 2008, crude prices ended lower by 32.6%, the biggest monthly drop since 1983.

In the currency market on Monday, the U.S. dollar posted broad-based gains against other major currencies rising both against the British pound and the euro ahead of key interest rate decisions in Europe due later this week. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies, rose 1.3% to 86.35.

Among najor economic report for the day, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index survey reported today, Monday, 03 November, 2008 that national manufacturing activity at US in October fell to the lowest level since 1982.

Specifically, the ISM Manufacturing Index declined 4.6 to 38.9 in October, which was worse than the expected reading of 41.0. The number indicates contraction in manufacturing and the overall economy. Readings below 50% in the ISM diffusion index indicate that more firms are contracting than growing. The ISM tracks the breadth of growth across firms, asking purchasing managers if business is better or worse this month than last month.

OPEC officials decided last month at its meeting at Vienna that OPEC will pare production by 1.5 million barrels a day w.e.f 1 November, 2008. The official production quota is currently 28.8 million barrels, and it cut by 1.5 million in November.

Last week, the Centre for Global Energy Studies said that global oil demand may fall for the first time in 15 years in 2008 and stagnate next year.

For the third quarter of the year crude prices ended lower by 28%. This was the biggest quarterly drop since 1991. Before that, crude prices had gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. For the month of September, prices registered drop of 13%.

Against this background, December reformulated gasoline futures fell 13.3 cents to close at $1.3625 a gallon and December heating oil futures shed 10.1 cents to end at $1.9828 a gallon.

December natural gas saw a modest gain by the close. It finished at $6.838 per million British thermal units, up 5.5 cents.

At the MCX, crude oil for November delivery closed at Rs 3,167/barrel, lower by Rs 165 (4.95%) against previous day’s close. Natural gas for November delivery closed at Rs 326/mmbtu, higher by Rs 5.2/mmbtu (1.6%).

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Nestle India Ltd, Tata Motors Ltd, BPCL, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd, Jindal Steel & Power Ltd, Bharti Airtel Ltd, Dabur India Ltd, Hindalco Industries Ltd, Reliance Communications Ltd, Britannia Industries Ltd

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Eveninger - Nov 3 2008

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Volatility Analysis - Nov 3 2008

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Performance Summary