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Thursday, October 19, 2006

FIIs step up buying

The latest data shows that FIIs bought heavily into Indian stock for the seventh consecutive days. FIIs purchased shares worth a net Rs 1007.90 crore on Wednesday (18 October 2006) compared to Tuesdays (17 October) purchases of Rs 389 crore

The net inflow of Rs 1007.90 crore on 18 October was a result of gross purchases worth Rs 2846.70 crore and gross sales of Rs 1838.80 crore. The 30-share BSE Sensex lost 25.35 points (0.2%), to settle at 12,858.48, on 18 October 2006.

FIIs inflow for the month of October 2006, till 18 October, stood at Rs 5453.30 crore.

For the calendar year 2006, the FIIs total inflow aggregates Rs 28267.20 crore, a decline of 22% when compared to Rs 36270.60 during the same period last year.

Union Bank - Operationally weak results

Result highlights
  • Albeit at Rs194.2 crore the Q2FY2007 net profit of Union Bank of India (UBI) is in line with our expectations, the bank''s second quarter results are weaker at the operational level.
  • During the quarter the bank''s net interest income (NII) grew by 4.2% year on year (yoy) to Rs627.2 crore compared with our expectations of a 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth. The lower growth could be attributed to a squeeze on the net interest margin (NIM).
  • The other income (excluding the treasury income) grew by 42.6% driven by a strong growth in the fee income and higher recoveries.
  • The operating expenses grew by a sedate 1.4% as during the same quarter last year UBI had spent heavily on technology and expansion of its automated teller machine (ATM) network.
  • As a result, the operating profit grew by a strong 19.9% year on year (yoy) to Rs428.3 crore. The operating profit excluding the treasury income grew by 20.2% yoy.
  • Due to the lower provisioning requirement the bank could report a 217.8% y-o-y jump in its profits. In Q2FY2006 the bank had a one-time extraordinary provision of Rs235 crore that had pulled down its profits in that quarter.
  • At the current market price of Rs127, the stock is quoting at 5.7x its FY2008E earnings per share (EPS), 3.0x pre-provision profits (PPP) and 1.1x book value. The bank is available at attractive valuations looking at its strong average return on equity (RoE), which is estimated to be 18.2% over FY2006-08E. We reiterate our Buy call on the stock with price target of Rs150.

Shareholding pattern

Asset quality improves
The net NPAs reduced to 1.24% of the net advance at the end of September 2006 from 1.37% at the end of September 2005. However, on a sequential basis the same has gone up by two basis points from 1.22% at the end of June 2006.

Valuation and view
At the current market price of Rs127, the stock is quoting at 5.7x its FY2008E EPS, 3.0x PPP and 1.1x book value. We believe that although UBI''s Q2FY2007 NII has been less than our estimates, the same has been made up by higher-than-expected fee and other income.

The bank is available at attractive valuations looking at its strong average RoE, which is estimated to be 18.2% over FY2006-08E. We keep our earnings estimates unchanged and reiterate a Buy on the stock with price target of Rs150.

GRC 8200 out-licenced to Merck

Glenmark Pharma has entered into an out-licencing agreement with Germany's Merck KgaA for its prospective diabetes molecule GRC 8200.


In its second major out-licencing deal in two years, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd (GPL) has entered into an out-licencing agreement with Germany's Merck KgaA for its prospective diabetes molecule GRC 8200. The first molecule out-licenced by Glenmark was a prospective drug for asthma, GRC 3886.


GRC 8200 is a prospective anti-diabetes molecule to be used in the treatment of Type II diabetes. GRC 8200 belongs to a class of drugs called dipeptidyl peptidase IV, or DPP-4, inhibitors. They increase the body's ability to lower blood sugar. Compared with the existing drugs, research shows that patients using DPP-4 do not gain weight and suffer fewer side effects.

Currently, GRC 8200 is undergoing Phase II clinical trials (in which it is tested on humans) in India and South Africa. With its unique properties and fewer side effects, the drug can turn out to be a blockbuster molecule upon commercial launch in 2010. The DPP-4 category of drugs is expected to have peak sales of an estimated 9 billion euros globally. Apart from being a potential blockbuster, Merck could also use the drug in combination with its other anti-diabetes drugs.

The transaction is expected to close this year, pending approval from the US antitrust agencies.

Nature of the deal
Glenmark has out-licenced its anti-diabetic molecule to Merck KgaA for further research, development and commercial launch. The terms of the agreement are as outlined below:

* Glenmark will get a total of €190 million (approximately Rs1,110 crore), including an up-front payment of €25 million (approximately Rs146 crore), besides milestone payments upon successful development and launch of mono-therapy and combination products based on GRC 8200.
* Merck KGaA will develop, register and retain commercial marketing rights for GRC 8200 in North America, Europe and Japan.
* Glenmark will retain commercialisation rights for India for the GRC 8200 molecule.
* Both companies—Merck and Glenmark—will share the marketing rights for the other countries in the world.
* Merck KGaA will bear the cost of ongoing studies on GRC 8200 and will be responsible for planning, managing and sponsoring all development activities in the future.
* Upon commercial launch, Glenmark will supply the active ingredient to Merck and will receive royalties on net sales of the product.


Research and development of new molecules is a long-term process in which the new molecules undergo pre-clinical trials, clinical trials and patent approval before they are commercialised. It usually takes close to seven to nine years of research to develop a single molecule and costs over US$800 million. After having reached Phase II clinical trials, Indian companies typically out-licence further development of new molecules to international partners who have larger financial resources, infrastructure and marketing networks to take the molecules to subsequent levels of trials and commercial launch. Most large Indian pharma players have followed this practice in the past as is seen below.

Implications & valuation

The out-licencing deal for GRC 8200 is expected to generate revenues of €25 million (approximately Rs146 crore) for Glenmark in FY2007. This revenue will accrue directly to the company’s bottom line and is hence expected to add Rs11.6 (assuming a diluted equity) to the company’s earnings per share (EPS) in FY2007. The Rs11.6 per share increment provides a 57.6% upside to the company’s current FY2007 consensus EPS estimate of Rs20.3.

Profit-booking continues

The Sensex lost for the third straight day, shedding 134.89 points (1.05%), to settle at 12,723.59. It had opened firm, at 12,881.80, and risen to 12,925.60, at one point of time in early trade. Here, it started declining, and plunged to 12,654.98, by late afternoon as selling picked up pace.

The benchmark index oscillated a huge 271 points for the day.

The S&P CNX Nifty lost 32.85 points (0.89%), to end at 3,677.80.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 3,441 crore.

The market-breadth was negative; 997 shares advanced compared to 1,1427 that declined. As many as 84 scrips remained unchanged. The BSE MidCap index lost 0.35%, while the BSE SmallCap index was down merely 0.18%.

Among the 30-Sensex pack, 26 declined while the rest advanced.

Bajaj Auto was the top loser, down 3.62% to Rs 2,794, on 3.95 lakh shares, after the company came out with results below expectations for Q2 September 2006 on Wednesday, when the scrip plunged 7.14%.

Reliance Communication (down 2.78% to Rs 367.50), Ranbaxy (down 3.08% to Rs 411) and ITC (down 2.26% to Rs 190.10) were the other prominent losers.

HDFC dropped 2% to Rs 1,451, even while reporting 23% growth in bottomline for Q2 September 2006 to Rs 368.02 crore, compared to a net profit of Rs 298.98 crore in Q2 September 2005. Net profit has surpassed market expectations of about Rs 360 crore. Net interest income (NII) surged 21.7% to Rs 533.10 crore, from Rs 438.03 crore. NII also exceeded expectations of about 19% growth.

L&T lost 2.46% to Rs 1,271.10, even as the company reported 40.6% growth in net profit for Q2 September 2006 to Rs 201.22 crore from Rs 143.05 crore in Q2 September 2005. Net profit adjusted for last year’s extra-ordinary income rose 68% to Rs 201.22 crore from Rs 119.62 crore. Revenue rose 10.8%, from Rs 3,371.60 crore to Rs 3,736.07 crore.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) lost 1.53% to Rs 1,189.50, on 17.41 lakh shares ahead of its Q2 results today. Five brokerages have forecast between 4.6% fall and a 16.8% rise in RIL’s Q2 net profit, between Rs 2,366.20 crore and Rs 2,897.40 crore. While RIL’s refining (two-thirds of turnover) margin has declined, petrochemical (one-third) margins have surged during the quarter in Q2 September 2006. The sharp upswing in petrochemical margins in Q2 September was triggered by the scheduled capacity shutdown in Asia, followed by Europe.

Grasim Industries was the top gainer, up 2% to Rs 2,634, after it reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results. The net profit jumped 80% to Rs 337.84 crore (Rs 187.65 crore), beating market expectations. Four brokerages had forecast 41 - 67.8% growth in Grasim’s Q2 net profit, between Rs 264.70 crore and Rs 315 crore. The topline growth, too, surpassed market expectations. The net sales rose 22.6% to Rs 2,010.82 crore (Rs 1639.10 crore). Four brokerages forecast 11.2 - 18.8% growth, between Rs 1,822.50 crore and Rs 1,946.50 crore. The core operating profit margin surged from 19.6% to 26.4% in Q2 September 2005. The results hit the market after trading hours on Wednesday (18 October).

FIEM Industries finished at a discount (Rs 121.75), compared to the IPO price of Rs 137 per share. As many as 29.29 lakh shares changed hands in the counter on BSE. It was listed on BSE at Rs 145, went on to hit Rs 148 before dropping to a low of Rs 119.65.

Tech Mahindra jumped 12.63% to Rs 770.15, on robust Q2 results. Its net profit rose to Rs 141 crore from Rs 36.50 crore in Q2 September 2005. Total income surged to Rs 648 crore from Rs 257 crore.

JSW Steel surged 4.11% to Rs 327.95, after it announced 225% surge in net profit for Q2 September 2006 to Rs 327.95, compared to Rs 106.29 crore for Q2 September 2005. Total income has increased from Rs 1,551.98 crore to Rs 2,202.97 crore.

Canara Bank dropped 1.6% to Rs 276, as Q2 bottomline fell within the expected range. Canara Bank’s net profit rose 18% to Rs 361.77 crore. The growth was within market expectations. Net interest income surged 21.6% to Rs 981.11 crore, much more than expected. Four brokerages had forecast 16.6 - 20.8% growth. Other income declined to Rs 313.28 crore from Rs 392.84 crore. Provisions and contingencies declined to Rs 153.41 crore from Rs 202.60 crore.

Titan lost 2.61% to Rs 797.75. It reported 50.1% rise in Q2 September net sales to Rs 523.5 crore (Rs 348.8 crore). Net profit jumped 56.2% to Rs 32.2 crore (Rs 20.6 crore).

Jyoti Structures slipped 1.42% to Rs 118. It had reported a net profit of Rs 11.5 crore for Q2 September 2006, compared to Rs 5.3 crore for Q2 September 2005. Net sales rose to Rs 242.6 crore (Rs 158.5 crore).

Jay Bharat Maruti declined 1.32% to Rs 59.90, despite strong Q2 results. The company registered a net profit growth of 23.80% to Rs 2.96 crore for Q2 September 2006, compared to Rs 2.39 crore for Q2 September 2005. Net sales rose 17.40% to Rs 124.05 crore from Rs 105.69 crore.

Syngenta India jumped 9.31% to Rs 331, after it posted 67% growth in net profit to Rs 34.47 crore for the quarter ended 30 September 2006, compared to Rs 20.69 crore for the quarter ended 30 September 2005. The company's total income increased 27%, from Rs 210.26 crore to Rs 267.80 crore.

Orchid Chemicals dropped 1.48% to Rs 206.80, after it reported 8.1% growth in net profit for Q2 September 2006. Orchid Chemical’s net profit has risen 8.1% to Rs 29.45 crore (Rs 27.22 crore). Net sales rose 2.6% to Rs 245.73 crore. The performance was muted due to a strong base-effect of the corresponding previous quarter. The results are strong on a sequential basis. The net profit rose 101.8%, on a sequential basis, from Rs 14.59 crore in Q1 June 2006. Sales rose 21.8% on a sequential basis.

Geodesic Information Systems jumped 10% to Rs 202.10, after it announced 138% net profit growth for Q2 September 2006 to Rs 23.35 crore, compared to Rs 9.80 crore for Q2 September 2005. Total income increased to Rs 39.91 crore from Rs 21.73 crore.

EMCO surged 3.92% to Rs 595, after reporting strong Q2 September results. EMCO has registered a net profit growth of 71.20% to Rs 8.68 crore for Q2 September 2006, compared to Rs 5.07 crore in Q2 September 2005. Net sales rose 71.40% to Rs 130.49 crore, from Rs 76.15 crore.

Steel maker Ispat Industries jumped 4.72% to Rs 12.20, after the company reported turnaround results for Q2 September 2006. Ispat reported net profit of Rs 2.32 crore for Q2 September 2006, against a net loss of Rs 232.83 crore for Q2 September 2005. Net sales surged 57.20% to Rs 1,884.25 crore (Rs 1,198.40 crore).

Lupin rose 1.58% to Rs 261.70, after reporting 29% growth in net profit for Q2 September 2006 to Rs 58.30 crore from Rs 45.19 crore in Q2 September 2005. The bottomline growth was within market expectations. Market expectations for Lupin were quite varied – five brokerages had forecast 13 - 47.5% growth. Sales rose 21.1% to Rs 491.07 crore from Rs 405.09 crore, well within expectations. Five brokerages had forecast 17.8 - 31.9% sales growth.

Hexaware Technologies lost 3.17% to Rs 168.25, after its consolidated net profit rose 16.5% on a sequential basis to Rs 34.68 crore in Q3 September 2006, from Rs 29.77 crore in Q2 June 2006. The net profit growth beat market expectations. Five brokerages had forecast 10.6 - 15.1% growth. Revenue has risen 8.7% to Rs 224.96 crore from Rs 206.88 crore. Revenue growth was within market expectations. Five brokerages have forecast 7.3 - 10% growth.

Essel Propack declined 3.62% to Rs 82.50, after the company posted poor Q3 results. The company registered a fall of 24.62% in net profit for Q3 September 2006 to Rs 10.10 crore, compared to Rs 13.40 crore for Q3 September 2005. Total income has increased from Rs 69.10 crore to Rs 76.50 crore.

IDBI slipped 2.20% to Rs 78.60, after the company posted almost flat Q2 results. IDBI has posted a net profit growth of 5.73% to Rs 139.40 crore for Q2 September 2006, compared to Rs 131.84 core for Q2 September 2005. Total income has increased from Rs 1,568.17 crore to Rs 1,641.24 crore.

Asian/European markets were trading mixed. The Nikkei 225 index finished 101.64 points (0.61%) lower, at 16,551.36. Sharp losses in shares of chip equipment makers Tokyo Electron after Intel Corp. lowered its capital spending forecast, weighed on the Japanese benchmark index.

The Hang Seng index dropped 61.12 points (0.34%), to settle at 17,986.97.

US blue-chips rose on Wednesday, with the Dow industrial briefly topping the 12,000 mark for the first time on the strength of IBM's better-than-expected earnings, but investor concerns about the outlook for technology profits pushed the Nasdaq lower. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 42.66 points, or 0.36%, to 11,992.68 -- a fresh record closing high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 1.91 points, or 0.14%, to end at 1,365.96, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 7.80 points, or 0.33%, to close at 2,337.15.

Crude oil price rebounded from near its lowest level this year to around $ 58 on Thursday as traders reeled from a sharp rise in already bulging US crude stocks and OPEC ministers gathered for their first output cut since 2004. US light crude for November rose 23 cents to $57.88 a barrel. London Brent crude rose 27 cents, to $ 59.85 a barrel.

IPCA - Capital Telefolio

Ipca Laboratories is a backward integrated, fast growing pharmaceutical
major, with a strong thrust on exports. It has reported 25% jump in net
sales and a whopping 102% rise in net profit in September 2006 quarter.
As the sales growth for the second half is expected to continue over
25% with much better profit margins, the company's financials are set for
a major uptrend.

Actual EPS for March 2005 : Rs 31.4
Actual EPS for March 2006 : Rs 25.6
Projected EPS for March 2007: Rs 38.1

Results Today & Tomorrow

Results Today:

Cholamandalam DBS Finance Ltd. Hindustan Construction Company Ltd. Torrent Cables Ltd. Mipco Seamless Rings (Gujarat) Ltd. Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. Lupin Ltd. RPG Transmission Ltd. Q-Flex Cables Ltd. Hella India Lighting Ltd. Henkel India Ltd. Larsen & Toubro Ltd. Poddar Pigments Ltd. Techno Electric & Engineering company Ltd. Foods & Inns Ltd. Panacea Biotec Ltd. Navin Fluorine International Ltd. Arvind Chemicals Ltd. Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd Syngenta India Ltd. Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd Punjab Tractors Ltd. Kampani Consultants Ltd. KLG Systel Ltd. Aplab Ltd. ETC Networks Ltd 3i Infotech Ltd. Paradyne Infotech Ltd. Gujarat Alkalies & Chemicals Ltd. Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilisers Company Ltd. Narmada Chematur Petrochemicals Ltd. Reliance Energy Ltd. Nitco Tiles Ltd. Jayant Agro Organics Ltd Jayshree Chemicals Ltd. Nettlinx Ltd. IFCI Ltd. Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. EID Parry (India) Ltd. Elder Health Care Ltd. Piramyd Retail Ltd. Yuken India Ltd. Austin Engineering Company Ltd. HT Media Ltd. Khandwala Securities Ltd. State Bank Of Bikaner and Jaipur Datamatics Technologies Ltd. Rasoi Ltd. Neelamalai Agro Industries Ltd. Can Fin Homes Ltd. Hexaware Technologies Ltd. Industrial Development Bank of India Ltd. Oil Country Tubular Ltd. Garware Marine Industries Ltd. Adani Enterprises Ltd. Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. KPIT Cummins Infosystems LimitedInvestment & Precision Castings Ltd. JSW Steel LtdBharat Gears Ltd. Sumeet Industries Ltd. Mysore Cements Ltd. Mysore Cements Ltd. First Leasing Company of India Ltd. Lok Housing & Constructions LtdJindal Hotels Ltd. Saint-Gobain Sekurit India Ltd. Adlabs Films Ltd. SKF India Ltd. Sumeru Leasing & Finance Ltd. Seasons Textiles Ltd. Reliance Industries Ltd. Ingersoll-Rand (India) Ltd. Muller & Phipps (India) Ltd. Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd. Aarti Drugs Ltd. Bank of Maharashtra Insul Electronics Ltd. SNL Bearings Ltd.Pratibha Industries Ltd. Canara Bank ABC Bearings Ltd. Continental Credit & Investment Ltd. Shree Narmada Aluminium Industries Ltd. Alpha Hi-Tech Fuel Ltd. Flexo Film Wraps (India) limited Flexo Film Wraps (India) limited Flexo Film Wraps (India) limited Vikram Thermo (India) Ltd Shasun Chemicals & Drugs Ltd. Shasun Chemicals & Drugs Ltd. Allsec Technologies Ltd. Gujarat Borosil Ltd. TCI Industries Ltd. Reliance Petroleum Ltd. Sharp India Ltd. Rajkumar Forge Ltd. Mazda Ltd. Lloyds Finance Ltd.

Results Tomorrow:

Fine Line Circuits Ltd. Kashyap Tele-Medicines Ltd. Asahi India Glass Ltd. Ankush Finstock Ltd. Hindusthan National Glass & Industries Ltd. Onward Technologies Ltd. -Flex Solutions Ltd. Uniply Industries Ltd Soma Textiles & Industries Ltd. Soma Textiles & Industries Ltd. Vakrangee Softwares Ltd. Sanghi Corporate Services Ltd. Asian CERC Information Technology Ltd Simmonds Marshall Ltd. Aviva Industries Ltd. Ansal Properties & Infrastructure Ltd. JK Synthetics Pix Transmissions Ltd. Shringar Cinemas Ltd Allcargo Global Logistics Ltd. Kesoram Industries Ltd. Zenith Computers Ltd. State Bank of Travancore Polar Pharma India Ltd. Voltas Ltd. Srinivasa Shipping & Property Development Ltd Lakshmi Energy & Foods Ltd. Mahindra Ugine Steel Company Ltd. Balaji Telefilms Ltd. Dena Bank Jindal Worldwide Ltd. Ghanshyam Steel Works Ltd. Zenith Infotech Ltd. Walchand Peoplefirst Ltd. Scana Colour (India) Ltd. Biopac India Corporation Ltd. Rallis India Ltd. Everest Kanto Cylinder Ltd. Times Guaranty Ltd. Bharat Bijlee Ltd Four Soft Ltd. Rain Commodities Ltd Cipla Ltd. NIIT Technologies Ltd. Shin Ho Petrochemical (India) Ltd. Sagar Cements Ltd. DS Kulkarni Developers Ltd. Prime Securities Ltd. Mercator Lines Ltd. Hitachi Home & Life Solutions Ltd. Mahindra Automotive Steels Ltd. Rain Calcining Ltd. International Data Management Ltd. Satyam Computer Services Ltd. Gulshan Sugars & Chemicals Ltd. Solvay Pharma India Ltd. Allianz Securities Ltd. Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd. Grindwell Norton Ltd.

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RPL: single location refinery in the world

In its Report Dated 10th October,2006 SBI Capital Markets Ltd (SBI) has initiated a Market performer Coverage on Reliance Petroleum Limited (RPL) with CMP of Rs 67 and 12 Months Target Price of Rs 70.7.

SBI Capital Market Ltd (SBI) makes us aware that, Reliance Petroleum Limited (RPL) refinery will be the 6th largest single location refinery in the world based on current capacities. SBI further states that, RPL is expected to benefit from the positive outlook for refinery margins and its higher nelson complexity will enable the company to earn higher refinery margin by processing sour/heavy crude and produce more of value added products like alkylates, polypropylene etc fetching significantly higher realisation and provide product mix flexibility to take advantage of seasonal change in demand.

Due to underinvestment in refining capacity, global refinery utilization rate has increased from 75% in 1980 to 86.3% in 2005. SBI expects world refinery utilization rate to remain higher resulting in higher refinery margin going forward.

SBI anticipates that RPL to become a debt free company in the first 5 years of its operations due to robust free cash flow generation because of its large scale, higher refinery margin and income tax exemption (RPL will get 100% income-tax exemption for the first five years and 50% exemption thereafter for 10 years). RPL is likely to become a good dividend yield stock, once it commences production in Dec 08.

SBI''s 1 year target price for RPL is based on 8.2x its FY10E earnings discounted by one year cost of equity (12.5%). SBI assigns Marketperform rating to the stock with a target price of Rs. 70.7, implying 5.5% upside from the current levels. SBI initiates a coverage on Reliance Petroleum limited (RPL) with a rating and have a 12 month target price of Rs. 70.7.

Sharekhan Eagle Eye - Oct 19

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PLIndia - ITC

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Bharat Forge - No Surprises

Bharat Forge reported good Q2FY2007 results though the consolidated margins are still under pressure

* Bharat Forge's stand-alone net sales for Q2FY2007 have grown by 19.7% to Rs486.7 crore, with the domestic revenues rising by 18% and the exports going up by 22.6%.

* An improved product mix, progressive ramp-up in the forging capacity and higher machining contribution led to a 30-basis-point improvement in the operating profit margin (OPM) to 26.1% as the operating profit for the quarter grew by 21.1% to Rs117.7 crore.

* The net profit for the quarter rose by 20.1% to Rs62.2 crore due to higher interest costs and depreciation on account of the capacity expansions done by the company.

* On a consolidated basis, the company's net sales grew by 41.4% to Rs970.9 crore. The OPM declined by 240 basis points year on year (yoy) to 16.6% but improved sequentially as the operating profit for the quarter rose by 23.7% to Rs160.7 crore. The consolidated profit after tax (PAT) for the quarter grew by 21.4% to Rs74.2 crore.

* The company is also in the process of finalising four major long-term contracts, with the value of each contract being in excess of USD50 million per year. The contracts are expected to be signed by March 2007.

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