Picking Winners - By Dhirendra Kumar

Sensex crosses 14K intra-day. Sensex touches 14K peak on strong fund support. Sensex hits 14Kmark. Freak surge sends index beyond 14K. Sensex crosses14,000 mark. Sensex kisses 14K. Sensex touches 14K mark. Crazy kiya re: Sensex kisses 14K. Sensex scales 14K peak, finally.

These were some of headlines that newspaper in the country carried on Wednesday, 6th December. Yes, I know it's strange that three out of ten (presumably) independently-written headlines thought of the word 'kiss' but that's what happened. However, some big headlines and the usual collection of permanently breathless TV anchors aside, there was precious little excitement among real investors.

To us symbolism-seeking humans, Big Round Numbers (I hereby coin the abbreviation BRN) always seem to have a deeper meaning than they actually have. See how many people expressed shock recently when Chinese foreign currency reserves reached 1 trillion dollars. But investors aren't really excited by the Sensex' BRNs any more. They've seen far too many of them in far too short a time. They've got BRN fatigue. From 6,000 to 14,000, there have been nine first-time BRN events and nine is one too many to get excited about. Also, even though the professional excitement peddlers studiously ignore the arithmetic, a thousand points of the Sensex isn't what it used to be. When this bull-run began four years back, the journey from 3,000 to 4,000 meant a gain of 33.3 per cent. From 13,000 to 14,000, the gain is just 7.7 per cent. Investors are now so used to big gains that 7.7 per cent just doesn't hold any excitement. I think the next BRN that anyone should seriously get excited about is 20,000 but whether that will come around in one year or ten, I have no idea.

I'm serious. I didn't put that ten year range in that last paragraph just to frighten you. Ten years to reach 20,000 is just as possible as one year. Equity markets are like that. There's nothing you can do about it. There is a great deal of fear in markets and many of the best fund managers had configured their portfolios defensively. Conventionally, this means loading up with large companies which are assumed to be more stable in a falling market. In the Indian markets, this is true only on a relative basis. When the markets fall, large companies fall a lot but they do fall a lot loss then the small unknowns that have been punted up by the tips being circulated by speculators. The difference is that eventually the big scrips rebound but the purely speculative ones don't, having served the basic purpose of transferring wealth from the clever to the impatient.

I think the real action lies in being able to identify the next lot of companies that will one day join the ranks of the big blue chips. Everyone knows that the big stocks are safer and everyone knows that smaller stocks are riskier. But there are many medium-sized companies that are knocking on the doors of blue chip status. A very large number of them are being pitched as potential blue chips. When the goings gets a little less easy, only a small number of them will be recognised as having made the mark. I suppose some serious rewards will go to those who will manage to correctly foretell which ones will these be. Or perhaps just make some lucky guesses.

Close: Another selloff .. ready to test 12800 ! it appears

As indicated, whenever the news is good markets tend to use that as an opportunity. The cue for today was from FIIs which were sellers yesterday. The market started in red and then led on to deep red after looking for direction in early trades. Market was down by almost 500 points in intraday. The weak global cues added more fuel to the market, heavy selling pressure was seen in all sectors like Automobile, Cement, Pharma, Banks and Engineering. The selling pressure was seen not only in large caps but also in small and mid caps. The Asian and European Markets traded in Red.

Thai stocks had their biggest tumble in eight years after regulators ordered banks to lock up 30 percent of new foreign-currency deposits for a year to curb speculation. This brought back memories of the Asian currency of 1996. As per the new rules..Overseas investors buying baht starting tomorrow will only be able to invest 70 percent of what they transfer, and only recoup all of their funds if they keep the money in Thailand for more than a year, central bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase told a briefing in Bangkok today. Those who withdraw the reserved amount in less than a year will be penalized 33 percent of that 30 percent portion. This is an extreme step and the FIIs reacted with their feet. The repurcussions were felt across the region though such rules are unlikely to be replicated anywhere else.

Sensex closed down 349 points at 13382. Weighing on the Sensex were losses in NTPC (134.25,-5 percent), BHEL (2286.55,-4 percent), L & T (1415.75,-4 percent), RCVL (451.15,-4 percent) and TCS (1141.65,-3 percent). Losses are restricted by gains in Hero Honda (752.8,+0 percent). topnew.gif (1104 bytes)

News driven action.. But ferocity of the fall surprised yet again. Performance as always!

Among other news.. Indian Oil Corp is coming up in marketing of kerosene in portable containers to make the product available in the open market to customers not covered under the public distribution system. This step is to trap the urban and semi-urban kerosene markets. Currently, kerosene meant for PDS is diverted and used for activities like cleaning, polishing and even to workshops for industrial use. As per estimates, almost 17-18 per cent PDS kerosene is diverted and sold at higher prices for such activities. The company is looking at next June to commence production and marketing of kerosene in small containers to fill this gap, it is being considered to market kerosene in small containers, which would also ensure easy availability of the product for public utilisation. The PDS kerosene, which is being supplied at Rs 9 per litre, is perhaps one of the lowest prices in any non-oil producing nation. The cost of the packaged kerosene is estimated to be more than Rs 30. This move towards marketing of Kerosene in small containers and making availability of kerosene in free open market which is max used in urban and semi-urban area will have good movement on kerosene sales. This is positive for the company in a sense though the bigger issue is the under recoveries. We have a cautious view on refineries given their

Among other news, Nalco, the second biggest aluminum producer is undergoing a major capacity expansion within the domestic market and also plans to set up a plant in Indonesia, Vietnam, West Asia and Tajikisthan. The company plans to invest approximately Rs 4100 cr for the project, which includes capacity addition of 0.5 MT a year in smelter, captive power and mining. For the overseas venture the company has earmarked an Rs 16000 cr, which awaits government approval. Nalco has an installed capacity of 3.45-lakh tonnes of aluminium and 1.6 MT of alumina in the domestic market. After the stated capacity expansion, the company will have 1.2 MT of exportable surplus of alumina, which will be by 2008. Currently, exports contribute to around 50% of the company's total revenues. The aluminum stocks closed down in weak market the Nalco closed down by 1.7%.

Technically speaking: Overall market ended red. Volumes were at Rs 4162 cr. The breadth has been in favor of Decliners as they were at 1652 while Advances at 909. The Resistance was at 13641 - 13950 while Support at 13130 - 12928 levels. Technically Sensex is headed for 13450 levels and that could come early in the tomorrow itself given the downward trend.

However the positive is that almost everyone on the street is now negative and thats a positive. However one thing is clear, all upsides will be used as an exit opportunity. So the upsides seem to be a bit capped for now. Such correction was really on cards and it has come. Everyone was expecting one but the Markets surprised the markets by the ferocity of the fall yet again. At this level this should not be surprising.

FII: - Rs182 cr, MF + Rs 45.5 cr

FII Gross purchases Rs 2266 Cr Gross Sellers Rs 2449 Cr Net Sellers Rs 182.7
Cr
MF Gross Purchases Rs 499.3Cr Gross Sellers Rs 453.85 Cr Net buyers Rs 45.5 Cr.

Thats a big selloff and this will reflect in markets tomorrow morning. Also important to note that the FIIs were sellers on Monday as well and thats a day when markets closed in momentum.May be the Thailand baht control is used as an excuse but really our markets have been waiting for one for a full blooded correction

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Thailand Currency Update

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Sharekhan Commodities Buzz dated December 19, 2006

Mustard: Rate reduction by NAFED
The open market rates for mustard seed [stocked during 2005-06] declared by NAFED stood at Rs1,735-1,775 per quintal [for Rajasthan the prices were not revised today]. Despite the weak physical demand, the off take of seeds by the crushing units continued at the prevailing market rates, but in limited quantities.

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Sharekhan Highnoon dated December 19, 2006

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Thai Stocks, Baht Slide as Investors Withdraw on Currency Curbs

Thai stocks plunged after regulators yesterday told banks to lock up 30 percent of new foreign- currency deposits for a year to curb speculation. The baht dropped the most in three years.

The benchmark Stock Exchange of Thailand index slid as much as 8.9 percent, the heaviest in more than three years, and the baht almost doubled yesterday's 0.8 percent drop after central bank Governor Tarisa Watanagase said she was ``confident'' the measures will reduce inflows. The currency, Asia-Pacific's best performer, had surged 16 percent this year before yesterday as overseas investors bought the nation's stocks.

``Foreign investors will rush to take money out as they're afraid the baht may weaken further,'' said Visit Tantisuthorn, Secretary General of the Government Pension Fund, the country' biggest fund with more than $7.8 billion in assets. ``It'll help exporters and the country's trade balance.''

The baht climbed this year to a nine-year high yesterday amid optimism the economy will accelerate after a Sept. 19 coup ended a political deadlock that curbed spending and confidence. Exporters including Thai Union Frozen Products Pcl, the world's second-biggest tuna canner, on Nov. 16 asked the central bank to stem baht gains that are undermining their competitiveness.

The baht lost as much as 1.5 percent, the biggest fluctuation of any currency today, to 36.08 against the dollar. It traded at 35.66 at 10:03 a.m. in Bangkok. It last fell more on Sept. 14, 2003. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index slid the most since February 2003.

Lock Up

Starting today, overseas investors buying the baht will only be able to invest 70 percent of what they transfer and recoup all of their funds if they keep the money in Thailand for more than a year. Those who withdraw the reserved amount in less than a year will be fined 33 percent of that 30 percent portion.

A stronger baht hands overseas investors greater capital returns when they convert proceeds from sales back to dollars or their own currencies. China's yuan has added 3.1 percent against the dollar this year, Malaysia's ringgit has gained 6.3 percent and Singapore's dollar has climbed 7.9 percent.

``It's basically as if they're putting a tax on any trades less than a year,'' said Magnus Prim, a senior foreign-exchange strategist at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken in Singapore. ``It's going to stop any buying pressure and with the stock market likely to be hit, we could see the baht falling some more.''

A rising baht hurts exporters by cutting the value of their local currency-denominated profits and making their products more expensive compared with those of Asian rivals.

A military coup on Sept. 19 ousted prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and ended seven months of political turmoil. Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, installed by the military junta after the coup, is planning record spending on roads, subways and other infrastructure projects.

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Sensex plummets 349 points

The market took a sharp dip after a positive open and continued moving down, as shares across sectors witnessed substantial selling pressure amid fears that the government may follow the footsteps of Thailand to restrict the volatility caused by foreign financial investors. The session opened with a positive gap of five points at 13737 and saw considerable volatility through the day. The selling pressure in front-line stocks kept the consumer durables, tech, information technology and FMCG stocks in the red that dragged down the index to an intra-day low of 13237. The Sensex finally ended the session with losses of 2.54% and was down 349 points at 13382, while the Nifty tumbled 2.46% and was down 97 points at 3832.

The breadth of the market was extremely negative. Of the 2,619 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,632 stocks declined, 925 stocks advanced and 62 stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices the BSE CG index shed 3.28% at 8894 followed by the BSE IT index (down 3.02% at 5047), the BSE Teck index (down 2.76% at 3489) and the BSE FMCG index (down 2.34% at 1904).

Among the Sensex stocks, only Hero Honda managed to close in positive territory. NTPC tumbled 4.58% at Rs134, BHEL plunged 4.38% at Rs2,287, L&T slumped 3.81% at Rs1,416, Reliance Communication dropped 3.58% at Rs451, Satyam Computers shed 3.39% at Rs464, TCS lost 3.39% at Rs1,142 and ACC declined 3.36% at Rs1,018. The other front-line stocks were also down 2-3% each. However, Hero Honda was marginally up at Rs753.

Sensex sheds 2.5%

The market witnessed a sharp fall in a sell-off across Asian emerging markets after the central bank in Thailand said international investors must pay a 10 percent penalty to take funds out of the country within a year. The Thai central bank's currency controls heightened concern about emerging markets.

All the BSE sectoral indices ended in red with shares from IT and capital goods segment suffering the most.

Sensex plunged around 500 points in mid afternoon trade on intense selling pressure to touch an intra-day low of 13237.39, but recovered from lower level as value buying emerged. The barometer index lost 349.08-point (2.54%) for the day to settle at 13,382.01. Its high for the day was at 13748.62. It oscillated sharp 511.23 points during the day, with high volatility.

The S&P CNX Nifty lost 96.75 points (2.46%) to 3832.

Thai stocks plunged the most in 16 years, triggering declines across Asia's emerging markets, after the central bank said international investors will have to pay a 10% penalty on funds withdrawn out of the country within a year. The new regulations require investors to lock up 30 percent of foreign-exchange deposits for a year to deter speculation. Starting with funds transferred to Thailand today, overseas investors will be penalized 33 percent of that 30 percent portion to withdraw funds within one year. They can freely move investments between asset classes within the country.

Back home, the data showing substantial FII sales on Monday (18 December) also dampened the sentiment today.

The total turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 4114 crore.

Market breadth was negative on BSE, with 1.8 losers for every gainer, as selling pressure emerged for small-cap and mid-cap stocks. On BSE, 1641 shares declined as compared to 919 that advanced. 69 remained unchanged. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 1.21% while the BSE Small-Cap index declined 1.07%.

All the Asian markets were trading with losses except China’s Shanghai Composite, which was up 1.36%. Japanese stocks declined for the first time in seven days, led by brokerages such as Daiwa Securities Group Inc., after the nation's securities watchdog recommended Nikko Cordial Corp. be fined because of false earnings statements. The Nikkei 225 index was down 1.09% while the Hang Seng index lost 1.19%. The Bank of Japan today kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25%.

From the 30-Sensex pack, 29 declined while Hero Honda (up 0.89% to Rs 757) was the lone gainer.

PSU engineering major Bhel was the top loser, down 5.39% to Rs 2262.35 on 6.40 lakh shares. It had lost 4.21% on Monday (18 December). Market men attribute this fall to likely loss of equipment orders for the upcoming ultra mega power projects the bids for which were opened on Monday. According a report by domestic brokerage, Bhel’s cost competitiveness for supercritical equipment comes under question given the large disparity in bid prices between the lowest bidder, Lanco (at Rs 1.19 per unit) and NTPC (at Rs 2.1/unit). Reports suggest that Lanco had tied up with Chinese equipment supplier Dongfang, while NTPC had tied up with Bhel for ultra mega power project.

NTPC slumped 5.05% to Rs 133.60 on high volumes of 26.17 lakh shares. The stock moved in a range of Rs 132.70 – Rs 142.

Reliance Communications (down 4.80% to Rs 445.45), L&T (down 4.21% to Rs 1410) and ACC (down 3.82% to Rs 1013) were the other losers.

Index heavyweight Reliance industries (RIL) was down 3.20% to Rs 1248 on 17.42 lakh shares notwithstanding reports that Reliance Industries and its partner Niko Resources have discovered huge oil in the hydrocarbon rich Krishna-Godavari basin. It had slipped to a low of Rs 1231.

Tata Steel lost 3.23% to Rs 452.30 on 13.02 lakh shares. It had advanced to a high of Rs 475 following reports the UK Takeover Panel is putting the Corus deal on the fast track by planning to auction Anglo-Dutch steel company to the two rival suitors Tata Steel and Brazil’s CSN.

Reliance Industries (RIL) was the most active counter on BSE with turnover of Rs 219.19 crore followed by Bhel (Rs 147.55 crore) and Tech Mahindra (Rs 128.12 crore).

Madhucon Projects was down 6.81% to Rs 294 on high volumes of 12.07 lakh shares. The counter saw three block deals (3.54 lakh shares at Rs 320 per share), (4.42 lakh shares at Rs 305 per share), (2.98 lakh shares at Rs 303 per share).

The BSE capital goods index, tanked 3.28% or 301.60 points, and was the biggest loser among the sectoral indices. Crompton Greaves (down 6.3% to Rs 193), Bharat Electronics (down 4.99% to Rs 1252), SKF Bearings (down 3.20% to Rs 277.20), BEML (down 3.86% to Rs 925), ABB (down 3.62% to Rs 3535), Punj Lloyd (down 4.15% to Rs 977.15), and Siemens India (down 2.82% to Rs 1130), lost ground apart from Bhel and Larsen & Toubro (L&T).

The BSE IT Index settled with 3.02% or 157.22 point loss. Frontline IT stocks edged lower on the back of overnight fall in tech laden Nasdaq composite index. Infosys (down 3.20% to Rs 2152), Satyam Computer (down 3.51% to Rs 463), TCS (down 3.52% to Rs 1140), Wipro (down 3.21% to Rs 563.25). Infosys ADR lost 2% on Monday to $53.64, Satyam Computer ADR shed 2.4% to $23.50 and Wipro ADR lost 0.7% to $15.65.

In a weak market sugar shares were able to hold their early gains as buying continued after the Union Cabinet on Monday decided to allow sugar companies with export obligation under the Advance License (AL) scheme to undertake exports. Under AL scheme, companies have to re-export one tonne of white sugar against every 1.05 tonne of raw sugar imported within a period of two years.

Uttam Sugar (up 3.61% to Rs 136.50), Sakthi Sugar (up 3.80% to Rs 106.50), Ugar Sugar Works (up 7.51% to Rs 17.90), Mawana Sugar (up 3.78% to Rs 52.15), Dhampur Sugar (up 4.44% to Rs 92.90), Balrampur Chini Mills (up 3.89% to Rs 85.50), Ponni Sugars (up 3.86% to Rs 52.50), Triveni Engineering (up 3.85% to Rs 52.55), and Simbhaoli Sugar (up 2.47% to Rs 64.40) surged.

Lupin declined 3.56% to Rs 560 after the drug maker said it had received tentative approval from the US Food and Drug Administration for trandolapril, used in treating high blood pressure. It had surged to a high of Rs 600.

Federal Bank lost 3.25% to Rs 210.05 on reports that it is planning to enter wealth management and buying a stake in an asset management company (AMC). The bank is said to be looking for mergers and acquisitions opportunities. It is also planning a joint venture in West Asia to look after its business in the region.

Crew BOS Products gained 0.87% to Rs 231.90, as buying continued for the second day in a row today after it scheduled an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) on 8 January 2007, to consider allotment of up to 12.50 lakh convertible warrants, on a preferential basis, to promoters and investors, with an option to convert them into equity shares of Rs 10 each against one warrant at the exercise price of Rs 178. The board will also seek shareholders’ consent for raising $ 25 million in domestic/international markets through various routes.

Unichem Labs surged 4% to Rs 274.60, extending its recent upmove after the company said late last week it had acquired the balance 40% stake in its UK subsidiary -Niche Generics from a group of managers of Niche Generics. Prior to this acquisition, Unichem held a 60% majority stake in the said Niche Generics. Niche Generics, UK, is engaged in the business of product development, dossier filing and manufacturing pharmaceutical formulations for the European markets.

Rana Sugars jumped 4.44% to Rs 24.70 after the company said it expected its new sugar unit and power plant in northern India to add Rs 200 crore in revenue this year.

As per provisional data, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 369 crore on Monday (18 December), the day when Sensex had risen 116 points in volatile trade. Their net outflow was Rs 46 crore on Friday 15 December, the day when Sensex had risen 127 points.

FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 307 crore in index-based futures on Monday. They were net sellers to the tune of Rs 26 crore in individual stock futures on that day.

US stocks fell on Monday as investors locked in profits after tumbling oil prices hurt energy shares such as Exxon Mobil Corp., overshadowing gains earlier in the session on news of at least $82 billion in corporate takeovers. The Dow Jones industrial average was down 4.25 points, or 0.03%, to end at 12,441.27. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 21.63 points, or 0.88%, to close at 2,435.57.

Oil prices were steady on Tuesday as the market gauged the impact of its biggest slide in a month the day before. On Monday, prices dropped 1.9% as forecasts about warmer-than-normal U.S. weather countered last week's gains. It was the biggest dollar and percentage drop for the front-month contract since 16 November.

Tuesday, light sweet crude for January delivery dropped a penny to US$62.20 a barrel in midday Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

From Research Desk - Unitech

Unitech Ltd.

CMP: Rs465.40

Not Rated

Unitech is India’s largest listed real estate company with a market cap of Rs284bn. The company has a land bank of 10,332 acres (400mn sq ft)
spread across north, south and east India. The company is one of the leader in developing residential complexes and commercial/IT parks in India. Unitech has also ventured into SEZ development and is expected to develop a large SEZ of 20,000 acres in Kundli (Haryana) and another 38,000 acres development in Kolkota. Apart from the real estate development, the company is involved in executing industrial projects on a turnkey basis both in India and overseas. It also has a tie up with Carlson Hospitality to manage Radisson hotels and with Marriot International to manage 3 hotels.

As a management philosophy, Unitech does not believe in trying to get a foothold in established areas. The management is clear that it prefers to enter into a city into the city suburbs, and develop integrated townships, thereby developing the area. This is seen in Unitech’s policy in Gurgaon, where the company along with few other large players have capitalized on the early mover advantage in creating integrated townships.

The company is clear that it would rather prefer to accumulate land though open market purchases and agricultural land, than bid for high cost properties at public tender process. While this process is cumbersome, it benefits the company through lower land prices.

In line with industry trend, majority of Unitech’s completed projects have been in the residential segment. Incrementally, 77% of the total planned development space is expected to come from residential segment. This also helps the company’s cash flows as residential segment is a very low working capital intensive business.

STRATEGY INPUTS FOR THE DAY

Bulls ‘discover’, bears short-cover

One doesn't discover new lands without consenting to lose sight of the shore for a very long time.

A couple of discoveries in the KG basin by ONGC and Reliance gave the bulls a chance to shore up the indices. The BSE Oil & Gas index was up nearly 3%. The bears are not running out of gas though. We see a cautious opening and some weakness owing to the lull in global markets.

FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs3.69bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday despite the rally in the market. In the F&O segment, they pumped in Rs2.58bn. On Friday, they were net sellers of Rs460mn in the cash segment. But, Mutual Funds were net buyers at Rs1.31bn.

The slugfest between the bulls and the bears will continue for a while amid uncertainty over the near-term trend of the market. Post last week's sudden crash and an equally remarkable rebound, most players are taking a cautious approach. With the year nearing a close, the market will see reduced participation from most players.

The market will remain choppy with intermittent bouts of buying and selling. We are not sure if another carnage is on the cards or not today. But, one has to be prepared for any eventuality. Going by the current valuations and the lack of immediate triggers, we would advise investors to remain guarded and be very selective.

The Bank of Japan has kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged as it awaits more data on the strength of the world's second-largest economy. Central bank Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board kept the key overnight lending rate at 0.25%, the central bank said in a statement released in Tokyo. The decision, which was unanimous, was in line with expectations.

Hero Honda is likely to gain amid reports that the company will hike prices by up to Rs1,000 from January. Binani Industries could come under pressure as the company's zinc operations in Kerala have been suspended due to environmental concerns.

Goldstone Technologies might gain as it has entered into a Franchisee Agreement with BSNL for providing IPTV, Video On Demand and Interactive Gaming Services to the latter's customers in Hyderabad, through a revenue sharing and non-exclusive arrangement for a period of five years.

Varun Shipping is likely to advance as it has acquired its 12th LPG carrier. With this, the company will own around 79% of total LPG tonnage presently operating under Indian flag. The company now owns a fleet of 18 vessels.

US stocks closed lower on Monday, as investors booked profit on recent gains, notably in technology shares, offsetting an upgrade of Citigroup and more merger news. A slide in crude oil prices also weighed on energy shares and capped gains for the broader market.

The Dow was down 4.25 points to 12,441.27, after scaling a new intraday high of 12,490.70 before turning lower in the final hour of trading. The broader S&P 500 fell 4.61 points to 1,422.48, and the tech-fueled Nasdaq was down 21.63 points to 2,435.57.

US light crude oil for January delivery sank $1.22 to settle at $62.21 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract was quoting 4 cents up at $62.25 per barrel.

Treasury prices edged higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 4.58% from 4.59% late on Friday. The dollar drifted lower against the euro and the yen.

European shares closed lower. The Dow Jones pan-European Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.1% to 365.79. Among other indexes, the UK-based FTSE 100 closed down 0.2% at 6,247.40, the German DAX Xetra 30 increased 0.1% to 6,597.25 and the French CAC-40 shed 0.2% to 5,530.32.

Asian stocks fell this morning from a seven-month high as investors judged recent gains excessive given the outlook for earnings. Oil producers including BHP Billiton and Inpex Holdings slid after crude prices tumbled the most in more than a month.

The Nikkei was down 50 points to 16,911 while the Hang Seng tumbled 221 points to 18,971. The Straits Times in Singapore dropped 42 points to 2920.

Insider Trades:
The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Limited: Bharat K. Sheth, Deputy Chairman & Managing Director has purchased from open market 331930 equity shares of The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Limited on 11th December and 12th December, 2006.

Bajaj Auto Ltd: Shekhar Bajaj, Director has purchased from open market 6000 equity shares of Bajaj Auto Ltd on 13 December, 2006.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd: N.K. Khetan, Chief General Manager has sold in open market 9000 equity shares of Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd on 11th December, 2006.

Market Volumes:
IFCI, SAIL, R Com, ITC, Lanco Infratech, Polaris, India Cements, Ashok Leyland, Tata Steel, Hindalco, ONGC, Reliance Industries, Bank of India, Unitech, GMR infrastructure, Satyam Computer and Mphasis BFL.

Volume Toppers:
The turnover on NSE was down by 5.7% to Rs82.22bn. BSE Oil & Gas index was the major gainer and gained by 2.97%. BSE Auto index (up 1.03%), BSE Pharma index (up 1.01%) and BSE Bank index (up 0.89%) However, BSE Consumer Durable index lost 1.01%.

Upper Circuit Filters:
Flex Industries, Sonata Software, Educomp Solution, Crew BOS, Birla VXL and Radha Madhav.

Delivery Delight:
ABB, BPCL, Divis Laboratories, Educomp Solutions, GAIL, Glenmark, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, IVRCL Infrastructures, J&K Bank, L&T, Maruti, McDowell, Mysore Cements, ONGC, Ranbaxy, Siemens, SBI, Sterling Biotech, TCS, Tata Motors and Tata Power.

Brokers Recommendations:
Reliance Com – Outperform from Macquaire Research
Bombay Dyeing – Buy from Motilal Oswal

Long Term Investment:
Siemens

Major News Headlines:
IVRCL raises Rs5.55bn through QIP route, prices offering at Rs370 per share
Reliance Industries finds oil in KG basin
Govt introduces bill in parliament to amend the SBI Act
Glenmark gets 25mn euros from Merck
Unity Infra gets a contract from Ulhasnagar Municipal Corp
Ranbaxy to partner Govt in drug discovery research
ABG Shipyard gets repeat order from Dutch company
Ashok Leyland to source CNG engine tech from Brehon Energy
Essar Shipping to invest $400mn to buy drilling rigs
Tata Power, Lanco win bids for first two Ultra Mega Power Projects
Tata Motors to invest Rs1.2bn in Thai JV
Pratibha Industries bags water supply order
Subex Azure approves raising $200mn by sale of securities

How Market Fared

Another swinging day likely

The bulls emerged victorious for yet another day for the fourth straight trading session in a highly volatile day. NSE Nifty witnessed sharp intra-day swings, keeping the bulls on the tenterhooks in the morning session. However, strong buying in Reliance Industries, Auto stocks and some short covering in index heavyweights lifted the key indices higher in the late afternoon trades. Buying demand was seen in frontline stocks like ONGC, Tata Motors, Tata Steel and ICICI Bank. Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex added 116 points to close at 13731 and NSE Nifty gained 40 points to close at 3928 after touching a high of 3934 and a low of 3828.15, recording an intra-day swing of over 100 points.

Tata Power surged 5.8% to Rs591 as reports stated that the company won Mumdra Power project. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs600 and a low of Rs547 and recorded volumes of over 6,00,000 shares on NSE.

Tata Motors paced ahead by 4% to Rs892 after the company announced that the Joint Venture with Thai Venture would sell new vehicles in 'Near Future'. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs895 and a low of Rs831 and recorded volumes of over 19,00,000 shares on NSE.

Ashok Leyland advanced 1.7% to Rs42 after the company signed an accord with Brehon Energy. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs42 and a low of Rs35 and recorded volumes of over 32,00,000 shares on NSE.

Ranbaxy jumped by over 4% to Rs390 after the company announced that it would partner with Government in Drug discovery Research. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs396 and a low of Rs378 and recorded volumes of over 17,00,000 shares on NSE.

Oil & Gas stocks were among the major gainers, with the BSE Oil& Gas index adding 2.97%. Oil exploration stocks were in demand. ONGC surged 4.1% to Rs854 amid reports that it has struck huge gas reserves in the Bay of Bengal and RIL advanced 2.8% to Rs1289 after the company found Oil Reserve in KG Basin.

Pharma stocks recorded smart gains. Glaxo surged over 3% to Rs1158, Lupin was up 1.1% to Rs582 and Glenmark Pharma advanced 2.1% to Rs595 after the company received an upfront payment from Merck.

Auto stocks gained momentum on back of fresh buying. Maruti, Hero Honda, Maruti and M&M were among the major gainers.

PSU stocks ended with healthy gains. SAIL advanced 2.7% to Rs85, BEML edged higher by 0.6% to Rs962, JK Bank nearly advanced 8% to Rs619 and PNB added 0.7% to Rs510.