Saturday, December 02, 2006
BUY BEL (1,209)
SL 1,170 T 1,280 -1,300, 3-4 Days
BUY R Com (442)
SL 428 T 480-485, 1 Week
BUY Ceat (126)
SL 118 T 140-145, 1-2 Weeks
BUY Indian Overseas Bank (121)
SL 117 T 130, 135, 4-5 Days
BUY HLL (240)
SL 233 T 255, 1 Week
I was just guessing at numbers and figures
Pulling your puzzles apart
Questions of science, science and progress
Do not speak as loud as my heart
The bulls are singing their hearts out. In fact they are rocking and the decibel levels just keep increasing. Bears are maintaining a deafening silence. Last week we mentioned that bulls are getting high and running wild. Well, this week, the story was no different. Bulls notched up another victory by taking the indices to new highs. This incredible journey have taken many by surprise as it has ignored all the concerns of overstretched valuations, rising crude oil prices and possible interest rate hikes. With all the major events out of the way and after a smooth rollover into December future series, the markets are likely to consolidate at these levels. This time around the Nifty rollover was to the tune of around 70.54% and market wide rollover was around 83.29%, indicating that traders are turning cautious and have taken more stock positions rather than Nifty positions. It seems like nothing could stop the bulls; all concerns of valuations are getting dissolved in the liquidity poured in by FIIs. Despite the recovery on the bourses on last two trading sessions of the week, extreme caution is usually advocated as the indices are trading at all time highs. Any gains could well be used to pocket cash. Expect some cooling off anytime. No one can time the market so stay on guard. Earnings growth may continue to be robust. The big hitch remains the valuations.
Dollar tumbles vs euro, pound
The dollar fell to a 14-year low against pound sterling and a 20-month low against the euro, as investors continued to put pressure on the US currency. The dollar plunged to $1.9748 against the pound, its lowest level since September 1992, just before sterling’s exit from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. The speed at which the dollar has plunged against the pound prompted many analysts to predict that the greenback could move through the psychological $2 level. Separately, the dollar plunged to a 20-month low of $1.3282 against the euro and a six-month low of SFr1.1947 against the Swiss franc. The only saving grace was the dollar's advance against the yen. The euro also advanced against the yen. The appetite to sell the yen was reinforced by an unexpected drop in Japanese core annual consumer price inflation, a measure targeted by the Bank of Japan. In an effort to soothe markets, Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, tried to dampen speculation that interest rates would be cut next year in order to boost economic growth, which would put more pressure on the greenback. The currency fell further after he spoke.
OECD cuts global growth forecast
he OECD issued its latest economic outlook. The world economic expansion will fade in 2007 to its weakest in four years, dragged down by a US slowdown that will force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, it said. However, the Paris-based organisation that advises 30 industrialised countries said that a rebalancing in the world economy will see growth in Europe and Asia compensate for a slowdown in the US. Growth among it's 30 members will slow to 2.5% in 2007 from 3.2% estimated for this year and the weakest since 2% in 2003, the group said in its semi-annual economic outlook. The 2007 forecast was below the 2.9% forecast in May. The OECD cut its estimate for GDP growth in the US to 2.4% in 2007 from the 3.1% it forecast six months ago. "We’re not expecting the apple cart to be overturned," OECD chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis said. "Rather than a major slowdown, what the world economy may be facing is a rebalancing of growth." Inflation, as measured by the GDP deflator, was predicted at 2.2% next year, the same as this year and above May’s 2.1% forecast.
US Q3 GDP revised upwards
The US economy grew at a 2.2% annual pace in the third quarter, faster than the initial estimate of 1.6% on strong business investment, even as the housing sector posted its biggest decline in more than 15 years. The revision to GDP was largely due to higher building of inventories and lower imports than originally assumed. A key measure of core inflation was revised by a tenth lower to 2.2%. The world's largest economy has grown 3% in the past year. Economists had forecast GDP to be revised up to 1.8%. The third quarter gain was still weaker than the 2.6% advance in the second quarter. Corporate profits increased 4.2% at a quarterly rate, and are up 30.9% in the past year. The report also showed that wage and salary growth was much lower than expected in the second quarter. Real disposable incomes fell 1.5% in the second quarter, rather than rising 1.7% as previously reported. Consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of the US economy, grew at a 2.9% annual rate during the quarter, a weaker reading than the 3.1% advance first estimated.
Japan's industrial output rises unexpectedly
In a development that might increase the chances of another hike in interest rates, Japan's industrial output surprisingly rose to a new record last month from September, the Government said. In October, production at factories and mines climbed to a seasonally adjusted 1.6% from the previous month, bringing the industrial output index to 107.8, the highest on record, topping the previous all-time high of 106.8 set in August. Gains were led by autos and semiconductors as production rose 7.4% from a year earlier, the biggest jump in more than two years, from a month earlier, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said. The economists had been looking for a reduction to 0.4%. Year-on-year, industrial output rose 7.4% in October, the 15th straight month of increase. The ministry predicts that output will jump by 2.7% in November from October and increase by a further 0.1% in December from November. In September, factory output in the world's second-largest economy fell 0.7% from a month earlier. The report fueled speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates again in coming months. Central bank Governor Toshihiko Fukui has said that a rate increase is unavoidable to ensure that the country's economy keeps expanding. But, some economists say that an increase in interest rates before the end of this year still depends on more economic data.
Corus defers EGM to allow formal bid by CSN
In a new twist to the battle for Corus Group Plc, the Anglo-Dutch steel major postponed its extraordinary general meeting (EGM) in order to give Brazil's Companhia Siderurgica Nacional SA (CSN) enough time for submitting its counter bid. Corus, whose Board has already agreed to be acquired by India's Tata Steel Ltd., will delay the shareholders' meeting to Dec. 20, from Dec. 4, the London-based steelmaker said in a regulatory filing. "The Board of Corus has decided that it is in the best interests of Corus shareholders to allow CSN some additional time to satisfy its pre-conditions and to determine whether it will put forward a formal offer," Corus said. CSN, based in Rio de Janeiro, offered Corus shareholders 475 pence a share on Nov. 17, subject to due diligence. Tata Steel had bid 455 pence for Corus on Oct. 20, valuing the former British Steel Plc at US$8.3bn. CSN is currently going through the books of Corus to decide whether to table a firm offer. A successful takeover by either CSN or Tata Steel would create the world's fifth-largest steelmaker.
Ford seeks debt for turnaround
Ford, struggling to overcome record losses this year, plans to borrow as much as US $18bn to pay for US job cuts and factory shutdowns. Because of the carmaker's poor credit-rating it will, for the first time in its history, put up its factories and other assets as collateral. The new debt will primarily be secured by liens on principal domestic manufacturing facilities and all of the company's other domestic automotive assets, intellectual property, real property, stock of subsidiaries including Ford Motor Credit Co. and Volvo, inter company payables and notes, and up to US $4bn of domestic cash, the company said. Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service assigned bank loan ratings for Ford's new US$15bn senior secured credit line. The company, which is restructuring, has lost around US $7bn so far this year as its share of the US market continues to erode. Separately, Ford said 38,000 factory workers agreed to take buyout and early-retirement offers to leave the company, pushing the automaker past its job-cut target. The company said that 30,000 accepted the latest round of offers, after 8,000 took earlier incentives made at individual plants. The total departures top Ford's goal of trimming 30,000 blue-collar jobs in North America by 2008. It's paying as much as US $140,000 to get United Auto Workers members to quit or retire.
Petrol Prices Cut
Succumbing to political pressure, the Government cut retail prices of petrol and diesel in line with the steep fall in crude oil prices. Petroleum Minister Murli Deora said the price of petrol was reduced by Rs2 per litre while diesel will be cheaper by Re1 a litre in the capital. The prices will differ from state to state as per their respective tax levies. Sonia Gandhi, the President of the Congress party, asked Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh to reduce petrol and diesel prices to pass on the benefit of the lower crude oil prices to the general public. There was no change in the price of politically sensitive Kerosene and LPG. Though the move might help contain inflation to some extent, oil marketing companies will bear the brunt of the cut in fuel prices. Private players like Reliance Industries will be hurt even more. Motor fuel prices were last reduced on November 16, 2004, but were raised thrice subsequently, the last being on June 6, to compensate public sector oil companies for losses incurred on selling petrol and diesel at a discount after crude oil prices soared in world markets. But, since hitting a record of US$78.40 per barrel on July 14, crude prices are down more than 20%, leading to calls for a reduction in local fuel prices from coalition partners such as the Left parties.
October exports rise 11.3% yoy
India's merchandise exports grew by 11.35% last month to US$9.62bn. Imports climbed by 36.8% to US$15.83bn, widening the trade deficit to US$6.21bn from US$2.93bn in the same month last year. Crude oil imports stood at US$5.35bn in October compared with US$3.44bn in the corresponding period last year, registering a growth of 55.35%. During the month under review, non-oil imports were estimated at US$10.48bn, up 28.92% over non-oil imports of US$8.13bn in October 2005. Between April-October 2006, cumulative merchandise exports were up 22.1% at US$69.53bn. Imports during April-October 2006-07 grew by 21.5% to US$99.76bn, leading to a trade gap of US$30.23bn. The trade deficit for April-October 2005-06 was at US$23.52bn. Crude oil imports during April-October 2006-07 were valued at US$34.01bn, which was 39.45% higher than US$24.39bn in the corresponding period last year. Non-oil imports stood at US$65.75bn, up 13.5% over the level of US$57.92bn in April-October 2005-06. Exports from India rose 25% to US$101bn in the year ended March 31, 2006, exceeding a target of US$92bn. The Government wants to boost exports to US$165bn by March 31, 2010. That will help India gain a 1% share of global merchandise trade from the current 0.8%.
Govt okays Essar, Fiat FDI proposals
The Government cleared 17 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) proposals worth Rs35.36bn (US$790mn). Among the prominent cases approved includes Essar Group's plan to ramp up foreign holding in Hutchison Essar, its joint venture with Hong Kong-based Hutchison Telecom International. Essar is aiming to increase the foreign stake in Hutch Essar, by 5.85% to the maximum permissible limit of 74%. Essar communications Mauritius will bring in Rs2.3bn for this transaction. The biggest proposal was that of Fiat Auto SpA. The Italian auto major plans to pump in an additional Rs20bn in its Indian unit, Fiat India Automobiles. This will take its total foreign investment in India to Rs40bn. A group of NRIs, Persons of Indian Origin and other overseas investors were permitted to invest Rs10.9bn in ICICI Venture Funds Management, a unit of ICICI Bank. ICICI Ventures will use the money to set up an India Advantage Fund for investment in local companies. Korea-based Mando Corp. would invest Rs1.03bn to set up a new wholly-owned subsidiary in Chennai for manufacturing, marketing and distributing power steering system for Hyundai Motor India and other auto companies. Fox International Channels Inc. of USA, a unit of News Corp., also got an approval for investing in an Indian company that will broadcast non-news and current affairs TV programming.
Parsvnath, Lanco shine on listing
Shares of Parsvnath Developers Ltd., one of the leading real estate developers in the country, surged on their stock market debut on Nov. 30, as investors bet on the sector's promising outlook. The stock opened at Rs540 as against the issue price of Rs300, translating into a premium of 80%. The scrip closed at Rs510 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) after touching a high of Rs579 and a low of Rs481. The issue was oversubscribed 62 times. Shares of Lanco Infratech Ltd., an infrastructure development company with interests in power generation, construction and property development, rose 12.5% on their debut on the stock exchanges on Nov. 27. The stock got listed at Rs270 on the BSE. It finished at Rs262, after touching a peak of Rs270 and a low of Rs228. The public issue of Lanco Infratech was subscribed 11.88 times. The offer price was fixed at Rs240 per share.
Unitech will list investment arm in London
Unitech Ltd. said it is contemplating seeking investment from the affiliates of Unitech Corporate Parks Plc in respect of the six special purpose vehicles (SPV) that own IT park/IT SEZ projects of the company. Unitech Corporate Park is a newly established, externally managed, independent entity incorporated in the Isle of Mann. It will focus on real estate investments in IT parks/IT SEZs. Unitech is seeking admission of Unitech Corporate Park's ordinary shares on the London Stock Exchange's AIM Market. A Unitech subsidiary, Nectrus Ltd. will provide investment advisory services and Unitech will provide project management services to the AIM listed Unitech Corporate Park. Separately, a media report said that Unitech plans to raise up to US$700mn from the share sale in Unitech Corporate Park. Unitech, based in New Delhi, will list the real estate investment firm on next month. Deutsche Bank AG and Morgan Stanley are advising Unitech on the Unitech Corporate Park IPO.
Big hotel plans unveiled
Hilton Hotels Corp plans to form a joint venture in India with DLF that will develop and own 75 hotels and serviced apartments over the next seven years. The JV-owned hotels will represent several brands from Hilton portfolio, including Hilton Hotels, Hilton Garden Inn, Homewood Suites and Hilton Residences. The JV will develop and build these properties, while Hilton will manage them. DLF will hold a 74% stake in the JV, and Hilton will hold the remaining minority stake. Over the next five to seven years, Hilton will invest up to US$143mn in the JV, before consideration of debt.
Emaar MGF entered into a joint venture agreement with Accor, global leaders in economy and budget hotels, to bring the Formule 1 brand of budget hotels to India. The new venture, Budget Hotels India has planned investments of US$300mn over the next 10 years. Starting with major metros, it is looking at developing 50 hotels in the first five years of its operations, and the remaining 50 will be developed in the second phase. Nirmal Lifestyles entered into a joint venture with Accor to develop and operate a Rs10bn hospitality project at Mumbai. The project, slated to be one of the largest hospitality projects in the country, is expected to be completed by 2010-11.
GMR Infrastructure’s subsidiary, GMR Hyderabad International Airport Ltd formed a joint venture with Accor Hotels and Resorts, Singapore to operate its first business hotel at Rajiv Gandhi International Airport in Shamshabad. Construction is scheduled to begin shortly and the hotel is expected to become operational by the time new international airport takes off in March 2008. Accor will operate, manage and maintain the hotel in addition to providing technical support during the construction stage. The lease term for operating the hotel is for a 10-year period, which can be extended further on mutual agreement.
Deal Street remains active
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (M&M) agreed to acquire a 66% stake in DGP Hinoday Industries Ltd. The balance 34% stake is in the hands of Hitachi Metals. The shares will be acquired from the company’s existing shareholders, DG Piramal Group and India Private Equity Fund Mauritius. M&M is viewing the acquisition as its entry into the SG Iron casting space and plans to utilize Hinoday's expertise in SG Iron to become a leading casting player in the country.
Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. said on Friday that it had acquired Be-Tabs Pharmaceuticals, the fifth largest generics company in South Africa, for US$70mn. The acquisition values Be-Tabs at 2.2 times sales and 7.7 times EBIDTA. Be-Tabs has a strong OTC (over-the-counter) portfolio, which accounts for 45% of its total revenues. It is the No.1 Penicillin manufacturer in South Africa. The acquisition will be funded through the FCCB proceeds.
Thomas Cook India Ltd. announced its decision to acquire Travel Corporation India (TCI). Thomas Cook India proposes to acquire the entire shareholding of TCI, which post acquisition will be a wholly owned subsidiary. The acquisition is subject to the approval of the shareholders of both the companies. The all cash deal is worth Rs1.82bn. Jehangir Katgara, the current MD of TCI, has accepted the request from Thomas Cook India to continue on the Board of TCI, which will help the process of consolidation. TCI which will become a 100% subsidiary but will continue to operate as a separate legal entity.
After announcing big-ticket steel projects, steel king Lakshmi Niwas Mittal has now set its sights on India's real estate sector. Karrick, the London-based NRI tycoon's investment arm, will pick up a 3.33% stake in Indiabulls Infrastructure Development Ltd. for Rs1.12bn. It will buy 2.5mn shares at Rs447 per share. Also, FIM Holding B Ltd., which is part of US-based hedge fund Farallon Capital, acquired a 10% stake in Indiabulls Infrastructure Development for Rs3.35bn. It will purchase 7.5mn shares at Rs447 per share. Indiabulls Infrastructure Development is the real estate unit of Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd. According to a financial daily, the total deal is worth Rs4.47bn, and values Indiabulls Infrastructure Development at Rs33.5bn.
Mcleod Russel India Ltd will acquire 72.38% stake in The Moran Tea Co (India) Ltd for Rs414.9mn and has signed a Term Sheet with Moran Holdings Plc for the same. Mcleod Russel expects the acquisition to consolidate its leadership position in tea plantation business with an annual tea output of over 75mn kgs of tea. The company proposes to make an Open Offer to acquire up to 20% more of Moran India from the public shareholders. The company will finance this acquisition through internal accruals. Moran India is engaged in growing and manufacturing of quality tea. It has four tea estates in the quality tea belt in Assam producing around 4.3mn kgs of tea annually.
VW to start making Passat from next year
Volkswagen AG, Europe's largest carmaker, will begin manufacturing the Passat sedan next year in India as part of its plan to capitalise on the rising consumer demand in Asia's fourth largest economy. The German car major will spend €410mn (US$540mn) to set up a greenfield plant at Chakan, near Pune. The new factory will have an installed capacity to manufacture 110,000 cars a year starting 2009. The plant will employ about 2,500 workers. Volkswagen also said it will start using the Indian facilities of its Skoda Auto AS unit at Aurangabad in the middle of next year. Volkswagen said it also plans to develop an India-specific compact car in the foreseeable future based on the Polo. The company will import the Touareg and Phaeton models for sale in India, it said.
India's second-largest beer maker SABMiller Plc plans to invest US$100mn a year for capacity expansion. Speaking at the India Economic Summit SABMiller CEO Graham Mackay said the expansion would take place in existing facilities and the company will make fresh investments as and when permitted. The company has invested US$500mn in the country so far. Abu Dhabi National Energy Company PJSC (TAQA) formed a joint venture with IL&FS for setting up power plants in India. The company plans to invest up to US$1bn over the next three to five years. The partnership potential with TAQA is a lead initiative to mobilize equity funds for these projects, including the 750 MW gas based power project in Tripura, being implemented with ONGC as a partner, IL&FS said.
Cairn, Nissan Copper, Ess Dee Aluminium IPOs announced
Cairn India Ltd plans to raise up to US$2.2bn through an IPO, which will open on December 11 and will close on December 15. The company will offer 328.8mn shares of Rs10 each and there will also be a greenshoe option of up to 49.32mn shares. The IPO proceeds will be used to expand its oil & gas fields, including the lucrative Rajasthan oil blocks. The IPO, will comprise 18.63% of the fully diluted post-issue equity share capital of the company, has a price band of between Rs160 and Rs190 per share, valuing the business at between Rs282.45bn and Rs335.41bn. Cairn had sold around 12% stake in a pre-IPO placement to a clutch of investors, including Malaysian state oil company Petronas, for US$823mn. Cairn will have a 69.5% stake in Cairn India after the IPO.
Nissan Copper is entering the capital market on December 4 with an IPO of Rs250mn. The price band has been fixed between Rs 33 and Rs 39 per share. The issue closes on December 8. The funds raised will be utilized for the expansion of the company's copper product manufacturing capacities. The total cost of the project is Rs350mn of which Rs100mn is part-funded by State Bank of India by way of a term loan and the balance will be funded through the issue.
Ess Dee Aluminium Ltd. said it would be entering the capital market with an IPO of equity shares to fund its proposed expansion plans. The end-to-end pharmaceuticals packaging company plans to issue 6.96mn shares of Rs10 each for cash at a premium, to be decided through a 100% book-building process. The final issue will constitute 25.79% of the post issue fully diluted equity share capital. The promoters' stake, post IPO will come down to 64.9%. The price band for the issue has been fixed between Rs200 and Rs225. The issue will open on December 4 and will close on December 8.
Big orders for TCS, L&T
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (TCS) has signed a seven year agreement with UK-based small-format food retailer Somerfield to provide a full range of managed IT services. TCS will take over the entire IT operations, asset management and planning for the company, with which it already has an eight-year relationship, and provide fully managed IT infrastructure and application services. It will also manage third party hardware, software and services contracts with an estimated value of over US$100mn. The project will reduce the headcount at Somerfield's Bristol office by around 115.
Larsen & Toubro Ltd.’s Joint Venture with Alpine Mayreder Bau GmbH, Austria has secured an order worth Rs4.56bn from NTPC Ltd. The contract is for the execution of 4 x 130 MW Tapovan Vishnugad Hydropower project in Uttaranchal. This is the second hydropower project that L&T will execute in Uttaranchal. The earlier project, Singoli Bhatwari project being implemented through the BOT route, is located 125 km from Tapovan Vishnugad.
Fiscal deficit target looks more achievable
Good show in November
- Bajaj Auto rendered a brilliant performance in November with the overall sales rising by 32.9% year on year (yoy).
- Hero Honda Motors reported decent sales for November. The domestic sales for the month rose by 12% to 273,058 vehicles. The exports were more or less flat at 7,124 units for the month.
- TVS Motors' numbers for the month were disappointing with an overall growth of just 4.3%. The higher inventory with the dealers at the end of September continued to have a dampening effect on the sales.
- Maruti Udyog reported strong sales for November 2006 with a domestic growth of 20.7% and an overall growth of 16.1%.
- Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) reported good numbers for the month of November 2006. Its utility vehicle (UV) sales were up by 14.8%, and the sales of the new Scorpio stood at 2,603, rising by 31.5% yoy.
Sun TV has announced that the board of the company and Gemini TV has approved the amalgamation of Gemini with the company.
The boards has approved an issue of 1.78 equity shares of Rs 10 each of the company for every equity share of Rs 10 each of Gemini. This would involve an issue of 178,00,000 shares of the company to Gemini shareholders. The board of directors of the company and Udaya TV has approved the merger of all divisions of Udaya, except the FM radio division, with the company.
The boards have approved an issue of 19.72 equity shares of Rs 10 each of the company for every equity share of Rs 10 each of Udaya. This would involve an issue of 118,32,000 shares of the company to Udaya shareholders.
The board of directors of the company, Gemini and Udaya has approved the scheme of arrangement which governs the above amalgamation and merger.
After the proposed amalgamation and merger, the outstanding equity share capital of the company will increase from 688,89,155 to 985,21,155 equity shares of Rs 10 each. The additional 296,32,000 shares proposed to be issued will constitute 30% of the enlarged equity capital of the company.
The company is proposed to be renamed as Sun TV Network on completion of the proposed merger. Gemini owns and operates five television channels; Gemini TV, Teja TV, Gemini News, Gemini Music and Gemini Cable Vision.
Udaya owns and operates four television channels; Udaya TV, Udaya Movies, Udaya Varthegalu and Udaya TV II.
The company currently operates four television channels; Sun TV, KTV, Sun News and Sun Music in Tamil language, two television channels; Surya TV and Kiran TV in Malayalam language, three FM radio stations, and another three FM radio stations through its subsidiaries.
The two subsidiaries of the company Kal Radio and South Asia FM, jointly hold 41 FM radio licenses for FM radio stations across India. With this proposed amalgamation and merger, the company will increase the number of television channels in its bouquet from 6 to 15 channels. The proposed amalgamation and merger will enable the company to build a dominant presence in entire south India, and emerge as one of the largest and most profitable television broadcasters in India.
Enam Financial Consultants and DSP Merrill Lynch acted as advisors to this transaction. The merger is subject to final approval by shareholders, creditors and the high court.
Capita Telefolio Volume No 13, Issue No 2 dated Saturday, 2nd December 2006.
The following recommendation is based on price as on Friday, 1st December 2006.
BUY: International Combustion (India) at Rs 328
Now full details:
BUY : International Combustion (India) at Rs 328
BSE Code : 505737
NSE Symbol : Not listed
Market Lot : 1
International Combustion is a leading player in geared motors, material handling equipment and other heavy engineering items. Besides catering to surging domestic industrial capex, the company is now set to capitalise on its foreign tie-ups for exports as well
Actual EPS for March 2005 : Rs 9.2
Actual EPS for March 2006 : Rs 24.1
Projected EPS for March 2007 : Rs 37.7
End of Capita Telefolio Volume No 13, Issue No 2 dated Saturday, 2nd December 2006.