Weekly Derivatives - July 18 2008
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Saturday, July 19, 2008
Market to remain shaky
MUMBAI: Even as the Congress-led UPA government faces a trust vote on Tuesday, the two-day rally in the stock market appears to suggest that investors are confident about the government’s survival.
But the sharp gains in the past couple of sessions have come amid cautious optimism, which was evident many times in the past too, when ruling parties were in trouble.
A look at the Sensex’s behaviour ahead of a no-confidence motion in Parliament that different governments faced since 1990 shows that the market did not witness any clear trend (sustained downward or upward movement), as investors mostly preferred to remain on the sidelines till political problems were resolved.
Notwithstanding the 1000-point rally in the Sensex in the past couple of sessions, there is uncertainty if the government will be able to survive the trust vote, say brokers. Besides next week’s political developments, the market will also be influenced by many other factors like crude oil prices, inflation and first quarter numbers, they say.
"Friday’s upsurge was mostly because of a fall in oil prices. There is also a feeling that the government will survive and so the nuclear deal will go through," said KR Choksey Shares and Securities chairman Kisan Choksey. If oil prices soften further, it would help ease inflationary pressures, as India is a major importer of crude oil, says Mr Choksey.
In April 1999, the then BJP-led coalition government was in trouble as the AIADMK party withdrew its support to the government. The Sensex ended weak on most trading days during the month. It, however, gained sharply by 216 points on April 16, a day before vote of confidence. The Sensex slipped 246 points after the BJP lost the no-confidence motion by a single vote on April 17.
On April 11, 1997, the then prime minister HD Deve Gowda lost the confidence vote after the Congress withdrew support to the United Front government. The market gained on most trading days during the month, before ending with a gain of 35 points, or 1%, at 3,633.7 on the day of the trust vote.
Among other notable occasions of vote of confidence, Atal Bihari Vajpayee resigned before the confidence motion was put to vote on May 28, 1996. The BJP then could not prove the majority. The market remained week ahead of the vote of confidence. On November 7, 1990, VP Singh lost the vote of confidence after the BJP withdrew its support to the government. The Sensex recorded some gains ahead of the event, before ending 49 points up, or 3.7%, at 1,381 on the day of the vote.
On Friday, the Sensex climbed 524 points, or 4%, to end at 13,635 while Nifty jumped 145 points, or 3.7%, to close at 4,092, on the back of a sharp fall in oil prices. "Crude is weak below $135 and once it breaches $129 levels the price could fall towards $121 levels. If the government survives the market may move up towards 4200 and 4600 in a short span of time" said Alex Mathew, research head of Geojit Financial Services.
via ET
Grey Market - Vishal Information Technologies
Somi Conveyor Belting 35 3 to 5
Birla Cotsyn (India) 12 to 14 Discount
Vishal Information Technologies 140 to 150 7 to 10
NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 19 2008
Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,BUY,124918,114.54,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKERS LTD,BUY,89338,116.60,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DIPAK RAMANBHAI RATHOD,BUY,195053,113.34,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,H K STOCK SERVICES PVT LTD,BUY,126866,113.22,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,S. J. SECURITIES LIMITED,BUY,100000,112.48,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,SHAH RUPAK KUMUDBHAI,BUY,35168,112.46,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,207285,114.47,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,VIPUL PANNALAL SHAH,BUY,171980,114.76,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,YES INVESTMENTS VISHAL KISHORE BHATIA,BUY,83700,111.90,-
18-JUL-2008,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD,BUY,6209227,38.95,-
18-JUL-2008,KALINDEE,Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng,KOTAK INDIA FOCUS FUND,BUY,200000,185.00,-
18-JUL-2008,POLARIS,Polaris Software Lab Ltd,PACE FINANCIAL SERVICES,BUY,616640,80.44,-
18-JUL-2008,SASKEN,Sasken Commu Techno Ltd,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,BUY,198427,136.03,-
18-JUL-2008,DCB,Development Credit Bank L,BNP PARIBAS ARBITRAGE,SELL,943761,51.12,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,SELL,124918,114.76,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DINDAYAL BIYANI STOCK BROKERS LTD,SELL,89338,116.45,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,DIPAK RAMANBHAI RATHOD,SELL,198053,113.02,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,H K STOCK SERVICES PVT LTD,SELL,103000,121.25,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,SHAH RUPAK KUMUDBHAI,SELL,111468,112.71,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,207285,114.59,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,VIPUL PANNALAL SHAH,SELL,171980,116.09,-
18-JUL-2008,FIRSTWIN,First Winner Industries L,YES INVESTMENTS VISHAL KISHORE BHATIA,SELL,95000,115.70,-
18-JUL-2008,IFCI,IFCI Ltd.,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD,SELL,6209227,38.96,-
18-JUL-2008,KALINDEE,Kalindee Rail Nirman (Eng,QUANTUM (M) LIMITED,SELL,291697,185.00,-
18-JUL-2008,LICHSGFIN,LIC Housing Finance Ltd,TCI CYPRUS HOLDING LTD,SELL,936167,236.12,-
18-JUL-2008,POLARIS,Polaris Software Lab Ltd,PACE FINANCIAL SERVICES,SELL,602640,80.67,-
18-JUL-2008,PRAENG,Prajay Engineers Syndicat,GENERAL ELECTRIC INVESTMENT CORPORATION A/C GENERAL ELECTRIC,SELL,172192,55.70,-
18-JUL-2008,PRIMESECU,Prime Securities Limited,OMEGA FINHOLD PRIVATE LTD.,SELL,137551,37.46,-
18-JUL-2008,SASKEN,Sasken Commu Techno Ltd,MBL & COMPANY LTD.,SELL,198427,136.09,-
Someone just covered their shorts ;-)
Finance Minister P Chidambaram has sought to suggest that the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) may invest funds in high yielding instruments in order to provide better returns to its over four crore subscribers.
When asked whether there is a case for increasing the EPF rate in view of the rising inflation, he said that the government cannot increase the interest rates on Special Deposit Schemes (SDS), where the bulk of the EPF funds are parked.
"SDS gets eight percent returns. You cannot touch that eight per cent, because that applies to very many instruments also. So, it cannot be looked at in isolation," he said.
The EPFO, however, he added, was welcome to take money and invest it elsewhere, if they can get better returns.
"We have told them (EPFO) two-three years ago that you can withdraw SDS money and invest it elsewhere," he said.
Finance Minister's statement comes after some members of the Central Board of Trustees of EPFO has raised the demand for increasing interest rate on provident fund from 8.5 percent to 12 percent in view of the rising inflation.
EPFO board had earlier rejected the proposal to invest five per cent of its funds in the stock market following opposition from trade unions.
The board at the recent meeting of the trustees on July 5 deferred the decision on revising the interest rates.
With inflation inching towards 12 percent mark, 8.5 percent interest rate fetches negative real returns.
BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - July 18 2008
Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
18/7/2008 531190 A V COTTEX I PEGASUS STOCKS AND SHARES PVT. LTD. S 97318 13.27
18/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN MEENAL NITESH THAKUR B 88992 113.55
18/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN JITENDRA MEHTA S 100000 112.50
18/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN H.K.STOCK SERVICES PVT LTD S 253875 114.22
18/7/2008 532996 FIRST WIN MEENAL NITESH THAKUR S 88992 113.13
18/7/2008 531137 GEMSTONE INV BHAVESH PRAKASH PABARI S 50000 21.95
18/7/2008 531602 KOFF BR PICT LAXMI CAP BROKING PVT LTD S 45108 20.03
18/7/2008 530543 MARG LTD FRONTPOINT FINANCIAL SERVICES FUND LP B 155000 148.02
18/7/2008 530543 MARG LTD MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED S 186973 148.00
18/7/2008 532606 PAREKH ALUM MANISH JASWANT MARU B 80865 107.00
18/7/2008 500337 PRIME SECU L CITIGROUP GLOBAL MKTS MAURITIUS PVT LTD S 1249040 37.00
18/7/2008 500337 PRIME SECU L DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED S 571530 37.19
18/7/2008 502587 RAMA PUL PAP PRITI KRISHNAGOPAL CHANDAK S 51527 17.10
18/7/2008 526365 SHYAM STAR MAHAJAY INVESTMENTS PVT LTD B 75000 175.00
18/7/2008 526365 SHYAM STAR VIPUL DASHRATLAL SHAH S 63955 175.00
18/7/2008 526161 SPENTA INTER MOHANLAL DAGA S 16364 9.47
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