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Wednesday, December 24, 2008

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Dec 24 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
24/12/2008 532946 BANG ACME CRAFT PVT.LTD B 68558 152.31
24/12/2008 531270 DAZZEL CONFI SUSHEELA SURANA B 100000 2.58
24/12/2008 530343 GENUS POWER HERITAGE ASSET MANAGEMENT IN. B 87237 110.73
24/12/2008 530343 GENUS POWER HERITAGE ASSET MANAGEMENT INC S 81237 110.75
24/12/2008 512047 NATRAJ FIN MAMTA SANDEEP KHANDELWAL S 30000 36.00
24/12/2008 511535 NDA SECURITI BDA FINCAP PVT.LTD. B 86000 12.75
24/12/2008 511535 NDA SECURITI PRAMOD KUMAR MITTAL S 86000 12.75
24/12/2008 531249 WELL PACK PA RAMESHBHAI V PARMAR B 37855 20.97

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Dec 24 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
24-DEC-2008,APOLLOSIND,Apollo Sindhoori Capital,VAIDYANATHAN KALYANI,BUY,380000,50.86,-
24-DEC-2008,EDUCOMP,Educomp Solutions Limited,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD,BUY,101362,2582.78,-
24-DEC-2008,INDOTECH,Indo Tech Transformers Li,RAJASTHAN GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD,BUY,70811,279.09,-
24-DEC-2008,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,BUY,3431420,128.68,-
24-DEC-2008,APOLLOSIND,Apollo Sindhoori Capital,PADMAJA REDDY,SELL,336805,50.84,-
24-DEC-2008,EDUCOMP,Educomp Solutions Limited,C D INTEGRATED SERVICES LTD,SELL,101362,2583.42,-
24-DEC-2008,INDOTECH,Indo Tech Transformers Li,SHARE TRADING INVESTMENTS,SELL,79989,279.20,-
24-DEC-2008,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT LTD,SELL,3431420,128.80,-
24-DEC-2008,SATYAMCOMP,Satyam Computers Ltd,IL AND FS TRUST COMPANY LIMITED,SELL,6050000,120.09,-

Post Session Commentary - Dec 24 2008

The Indian market closed with a deep cut tracking the weakness in the global markets as well as the expiry of the derivatives contract today. The holiday tomorrow for the celebration of Christmas led the investors to stay away from the market to book new positions. There also lacks the unfavoring cues from the US market like - recent drop in the US existing home sales and prices, that showed that the new home sales data for the month of November declined 2.9% to an annualized rate of 407,000 units, which is the lowest level in 17 years. The consensus forecast called for new home sales of 415,000. The existing home sales in November declined 8.6% to an annualized rate of 4.49 million units, which is worse than the already-depressed levels seen in recent months. The consensus called for 4.93 million sales. However, the market showed a little bit of recovery from the day’s low on buying support from the banking scrips.

The domestic market continued its downward rally for the third consecutive day. The market remained bearish since the initial bell without much buying support. All the sectoral indices closed in negative territory except the bankex index that managed to closed with modest gains on expectations of the investors that the falling bond yield and lower rates would accelerate the loan growth as well as profitability. BSE Sensex ended below 9,600 mark and NSE Nifty below 2,920 level. From the sectoral front, the realty index was the worst hit as the investors heavily offloaded their positions. Followed it are the Auto and Teck index that also concluded the day with modest losses.

The government issued bonds worth Rs 22,000 crore to compensate the oil marketing companies by giving them 6.35% bonds maturing in 2024 to OMCs as compensation towards the estimated under recoveries. IOC has been issued bonds worth Rs11,975.51 crore, HPCL worth Rs 4,693.73 and BPCL worth Rs 5,330.76 crore. Shares of BPCL, HPCL and IOC closed with gains of 5.12%, 3.21% and 0.79% respectively.

Among the Sensex pack 25 stocks ended in red territory and 5 in green. The market breadth was negative as 1505 stocks closed in red while 911 stocks closed in green and 93 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 118.03 points at 9,568.72 and NSE Nifty ended down by 51.8 points at 2,916.85. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with losses of 30.21 points and 38.98 points at 3,145.60 and 3,600.20 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,653.42 and intraday low of 9,502.63.

Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Tata Motors down (8.69%) followed by TCS (4.47%), Wipro (4.30%), ACC (4.14%), Rel Comm (4.07%), Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (4.07%), Satyam (3.88%) and Bhatia Airtel (3.08%).

Gainers from Sensex are ICICI Bank up (3.27%) along with SBI (1.77%), Ranbaxy Labs (1.24%) and HDFC bank (0.65%).

The BSE Reality index ended lower by (4.78%) or 115.09 points at 2,291.29. Main losers are Unitech Ltd (12.29%), Housing Dev (10.68%), Indianbulls Real (6.42%), Ansal Infra (6.08%), Omax (4.97%) and Orbit co (4.85%).

The BSE TECk index tumbled (2.25%) or 44.01 points to close at 1,952.03 as IBN18 (7.68%), Tech Mahindra (6.75%), HCL Tech (6.45%), Balaji Tele (5.03%) and Mphasis (4.83%) ended in negative territory.

The BSE Auto index ended down by (2.25%) or 55.53 points at 2408.48. Major losers are Tata Motors (8.69%), Escorts Ltd (4.20%), Mahindra & Mahindra (4.07%), Bharat Forge (3.12%) and Bajaj Auto (2.75%).

The IT index fell by (1.86%) or 42.41 points at 2,237.14. Pulled it down are Tech Mahindra lower by (6.75%) along with HCL Tech (6.45%), Mphasis (4.83%), TCS (4.47%), Wipro (4.30%) and Satyam (3.88%).

The Oil and Gas index closed lower by (1.46%) or 89.43 points at 6,016.91. Losers are RPL (5.52%), Essar Oil (5.11%), ONGC (2.66%), RNRL (1.98%), Reliance Inds (1.50%).

Down by ton

After taking a dip of 242 points in yesterday's trade, the market witnessed another round of strong bear hug that shaved 184 points off Sensex during intra-day trades. The market slipped into the red in initial trades and continued moving southward all through the session. Widespread correction in realty stocks sparked a major sell-off in noon trades that dragged the index below 9,550 mark to a low of 9,503. Sensex signed off the session with losses of 1.22% or 118 points at 9,569, while Nifty dropped 52 points to close at 2,917.

The market breadth was negative. Of the 2,509 stocks traded on the BSE 1,505 stocks declined, 911 stocks advanced and 93 stocks ended unchanged. Among sectoral indices, BSE Reality, BSE Auto and BSE Teck dropped over 2-4% each. Other sectoral indices were down around 1% each.

Except State Bank of India, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Ranbaxy Laboratories all the Sensex stocks witnessed steep falls. Tata Motors at Rs160, Wipro at Rs231.50, ACC at Rs463.20, Tata Consultancy Services at Rs473.65 and Mahindra & Mahindra at Rs279 slumped over 4-8% each. Among other major losers, Reliance Communications plunged 3.77% at Rs208, DLF dropped 3.26% at Rs292, ITC declined 2.92% at Rs172.60, Sterlite Industries lost 2.58% at Rs257, Bharti Airtel slipped by 2.55% at Rs693.10, Grasim Industries dipped 2.20% at Rs1190, Maruti Suzuki India tumbled 1.76% at Rs503.90 and JP Associates shed 1.66% at Rs77.20. Hindalco Industries, Tata Steel, Reliance Infrastructure, ONGC, Satyam Computer Services, HDFC and Larsen & Toubro were the other major losers.

Over 4.03 crore shares of Satyam Computer Services changed hands on the BSE followed by Unitech (3.28 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (1.44 crore shares), Cals Refineries (1.34 crore shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (1.11 crore shares

Market extends losses for the third day in a row

Weak global markets and signs of further deterioration in the world economy weighed on the domestic bourses. The market extended losses for the third straight day. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 118.03 points, or 1.22%.

Nevertheless, the market cut losses in late trade amid volatile trade ahead of the expiry of the December 2008 derivatives contracts. Bank stocks bucked the weak trend as investors speculated falling bond yields and lower rates would accelerate loan growth and profitability.

After an initial slide triggered by weak global cues, the market recovered from lower level. However, the recovery proved short-lived. Intraday recovery was witnessed intermittently later. After weakening in mid-afternoon trade, the market recovered shortly. The market could not sustain the recovery and it weakened in late trade before bouncing back.

European shares fell on concerns about the weakening global economy. Key benchmark indices in France and UK were down by 0.58% to 0.77%. Stock markets in Germany, Finland, Switzerland, Sweden, Spain, Italy and Austria were closed for the Christmas holiday.

Asian stocks were mostly lower on signs of further deterioration in the world economy. In Japan, the Nikkei fell 2.37% as investors sold Toyota Motor Corp and auto-related stocks after the world's biggest automaker forecast its first-ever annual operating loss. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, South Korea were down by between 0.26% to 1.76%. The key benchmark indices in Taiwan & Singapore rose by 0.24% to 0.39%.

US stocks fell overnight on further deterioration in the housing market and worry over weak consumer spending. The Dow Jones slipped 100.28 points, or 1.18%, to 8,419.49. The S&P 500 index shed 8.47 points, or 0.97%, to 863.16. The Nasdaq composite index slipped 10.81 points, or 0.71%, to 1,521.54.

In more evidence of the deteriorating US housing market, data on Tuesday, 23 December 2008, showed the pace of existing home sales plunged a record 8.6% in November 2008 and new-home sales fell 2.9% last month. Another data on the same day showed, US gross domestic production fell 0.5% in July-September 2008 quarter.

A survey released on Tuesday showed just 38.7% of Americans went shopping during the final weekend before Christmas -- usually among the busiest shopping weekends of the year.

Data on Tuesday revealed that British gross domestic product fell 0.6% during the July-September 2008 quarter, faster than the previous estimate for a 0.5% contraction. British house prices will fall about 10 percent in 2009 with risks skewed to the downside, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said on Tuesday.

On the same day, Spain, Europe's fifth-largest economy, declared it had stumbled into recession and New Zealand data showed it was suffering its worst contraction in eight years.

The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 118.03 points, or 1.22%, to 9,568.72. At the day's low of 9,502.53, the Sensex fell 184.22 points in late trade. The Sensex fell 33.33 points at the day's high of 9,653.42 hit in mid-morning trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was down 51.80 points, or 1.74%, to 2,916.85.

The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 3,176 crore, lower than Rs 3,378.03 crore on 23 December 2008.

Nifty January 2009 futures were at 2943.50, at a premium of 26.65 points as compared to the spot closing of 2916.85. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was at Rs 45,355.58 crore, lower than Rs 51,132.48 crore on Tuesday, 23 December 2008.

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 0.95% and the BSE Small-Cap index declined 1.07%. Both the indices underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Sensex has lost 531.19 points or 5.25% in last three trading sessions from a high of 10,099.91 on 19 December 2008. Before the fall, the market had risen sharply. From a recent low of 8,739.24 on 2 December 2008, the Sensex had jumped 1,360.67 points or 15.56% in nine trading sessions to 10,099.91 on 19 December 2008.

The barometer index is down 10,718.27 points or 52.83% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 11,638.05 points or 54.87% below its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.

The BSE Realty index (down 4.91%), the BSE Auto index (down 2.38%), the BSE Teck index (down 2.28%), the BSE Metal index (down 1.87%), the BSE IT index (down 1.86%), the BSE Power index (down 1.51%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (down 1.46%), the BSE FMCG index (down 1.34%) underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Bankex (up 1.64%), the BSE HealthCare index (down 0.18%), the BSE PSU index (down 0.66%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (down 0.83%), the BSE Capital Goods index (down 0.96%) outperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak. On BSE, 930 shares rose as compared with 1,535 that declined. 93 shares remained unchanged.

India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 1.5% to Rs 1,241.20 on concerns the recent sharp fall in crude prices will hit refining margins.

Oil exploration firm ONGC fell 2.66% as oil fell towards $38 a barrel on Wednesday on expectations that deepening global recession would reduce oil demand. U.S. light crude for February delivery fell 94 cents to a low of $38.04 a barrel.

PSU OMCs rose on reports the government would issue oil bonds worth Rs 22,000 crore to compensate them for selling fuel at state-set prices. BPCL, HPCL and Indian Oil Corporation rose by between 0.798% to 5.12%.

Metal stocks declined on worries a weakening domestic and global economy will hit demand. Steel Authority of India, Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries, National Aluminum Company, Sterlite Industries fell by between 1.85% to 5.34%.

Mahindra Ugine Steel Company slumped 4.67% after the company reduced the number of shifts and days of work on slowing demand for its products.

Auto stocks fell on concerns about the weakening domestic demand. Mahindra & Mahindra and Maruti Suzuki India fell by 2.08% to 4.07%.

India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors fell 8.69% extending losses for the second straight day on reports the company may have to pump in at least $1 billion to revive premium British brands Jaguar and Land Rover that it bought earlier this year.

Real estate shares extended losses on recent reports property rates are expected to fall by 20-25% as demand has dropped off sharply over the past 9-10 months due to high interest rates. Indiabulls Real Estate, DLF and Unitech fell by between 2.62% to 12.29%. Fall in property prices is expected to hit the margins of developers already hit by the demand slowdown. Additionally, developers are facing a sever cash crunch that is hindering the execution of ongoing projects and grounding new launches.

Bank stocks rose as investors speculated falling bond yields and lower rates would accelerate loan growth and profitability. India's largest commercial bank State Bank of India (SBI) rose 1.77%. On Saturday, 20 December 2008, SBI slashed its lending rate by 75 basis points, to be effective from 1 January 2009. The bank also cut its deposit rates by 25 to 100 basis points across maturities.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 3.27% even as its American depository receipts (ADR) slipped 6.52% on Tuesday. Its advance tax payment declined 6% to Rs 470 crore in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007. ICICI Bank said on Friday, 19 December 2008, joint managing director Chanda Kochhar would succeed Chief Executive K.V. Kamath who retires in April 2009. Kamath, chief executive since 1996, will become non-executive chairman from May 2009 replacing N. Vaghul who retires.

India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank gained 0.65% even as its American depository receipt (ADR) slipped 11.02% on Tuesday, 23 December 2008.

India's largest home loan lender by operating income Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) fell 0.98%. It cut its retail lending rates by 50 basis points, effective 22 December 2008. HDFC announced the rate cut after trading hours on Friday, 19 December 2008.

IT stocks fell as rupee turned stronger during the course of the day. India's third largest IT exporter by sales Wipro fell 4.3% to Rs 232.40 off the day's high of Rs 254.80, even as the company said it is buying Citi Technology Services (CTS), the India-based captive provider of information technology services and solutions to Citi entities worldwide, for $127 million in an all cash deal. The company announced the acquisition after trading hours on Tuesday.

India's second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys fell 0.4%. Infosys sees the Indian IT industry going through a slow phase of growth for some time, its chief executive said last week. India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services fell 4.47%.

After steep slide of 18.34% to a low of Rs 114.65 triggered by reports the World Bank has barred the company from conducting any business with it for eight years due to data theft and paying bribes to its staff, Satyam Computer, India's fourth largest IT major by sales, staged a solid rebound. The stock was down 3.88% to Rs 134.95. Volumes in the stock were a huge 4.03 crore on BSE. The World Bank has been an important client for Satyam. The multilateral agency had signed $100-million billing per annum contract. Satyam ADR fell 11.02% on Tuesday. The stock had plunged 18.34% at the day's low.

Satyam shares had tumbled 13.55% on Tuesday on rumours its founder and chairman Ramalinga Raju had resigned from the board. As per unconfirmed reports, Raju has put in his papers and he awaiting the company board's decision on the issue. The company had said on Thursday, 18 December 2008, said its board will meet on 29 December 2008 to consider buyback of shares, a move aimed at boosting investor confidence. The stock had slumped 30.22% to Rs 158.05 on Wednesday 17 December 2008 after it called off a deal to buy Maytas Properties and Maytas Infra, the two firms promoted by the family of promoter and chairman Ramalinga Raju, bowing to investor pressure.

The Indian rupee recovered from a two-week low in afternoon trade on Wednesday helped by exporter dollar sales after the unit slipped beyond the 49 per dollar mark earlier in the session. The partially convertible rupee was at 48.25/30 per dollar, off a low of 49.20 and stronger than its previous close of 48.78/81. A stronger rupee negatively impacts the operating margins of IT firms as they earn most of their revenues from exports.

Capital goods stocks slipped on worries a slowing economy will crimp orders. Larsen & Toubro, Thermax, and ABB fell by between 0.8% to 2.87%.

India's largest electric equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals fell 0.9% even as it won two contracts worth Rs 2,100 crore from state-run utility NTPC.

Sugar stocks rose as sugar futures rose in the commodities market. Bajaj Hindustan, Balrampur Chini, Shree Renuka Sugars and Dhampur Sugar rose by 0.54% to 3.27%. The February contract NSMG9 on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange rose 0.41 % to 1,953 per 100 kilogram

Deep Industries jumped 6.98% after a consortium of the company was awarded a block under the New Exploration Licensing Policy.

Fortis Healthcare rose 2.37% after its board approved raising funds by way of issuing equity shares with warrants on rights basis.

Aurobindo Pharma surged 3.02% on receiving the Canadian regulatory approval to sell terbinafine hydrochloride tablets in multiple strengths.

ABG Infralogistics galloped 15.43% on BSE on reports a French firm will acquire a 49% stake in its bulk port handling business.

Era Infra Engineering rose 0.28% on bagging an order worth Rs 9.62 crore.

PBA Infrastructure jumped 4.58% on bagging two orders aggregating to Rs 47.96 crore.

Punj Lloyd was flat at Rs 151.55 on bagging an order worth Rs 303.95 crore.

Pyramid Saimira Theatre was frozen at 10% lower circuit at Rs 55.05 after the stock market regulator said it had not issued any letter regarding an open offer for the company's shares at a huge premium over the market price.

GEE gained 3/74% on setting record date for issuing bonus shares in the ratio of 1:5.

Satyam Computer Services clocked the highest volume of Rs 4.03 crore shares on BSE. Unitech (3.28 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (1.44 crore shares), Cals Refineries (1.34 crore shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (1.11 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Satyam Computer Services clocked the highest turnover of Rs 510.82 crore on BSE. Reliance Capital (Rs 148.07 crore), Reliance Industries (Rs 143.46 crore), DLF (Rs 141.91 crore) and Educomp Solutions (Rs 138.64 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

Morning Note - Dec 24 2008

Morning Note - Dec 24 2008

Pre Session Commentary - Dec 24 2008

Today the markets are expected to open in red as most of the global markets seen battered. However, they look on the recovery mood as they are off from their day’s low and investors will also keep close eye on the inflation data and expect a better rollover in the derivatives market. Going ahead, the two day fall may daunt the investors over a possible pull back rally and continue to remain choppy over the day. On the other end, the muted festive session in various markets across the globe may hurt the corporate sales and their upcoming results.

On Tuesday, the markets continued southword journey in line with the other Asian markets. The markets were trading in negative zone on the concerns over the global economic outlook. The second stimulus package and a possible rate cut are over shadowed by the derivative settlement of the monthly contracts on Wednesday. The New Year may not begin in a good mood as investors expect this quarter to be one of the worst quarters in terms of results. Sensex and Nifty lost 1.69% and 1.24%. Oil & Gas, Bankex, Metal, Capital Goods and Auto conceded lose of 3.02%, 2.48%, 1.52%, 0.99% and 1.36% respectively. The market is expected to remain volatile during the trading session due to the expiry of derivatives contract today as well the long holiday weekend.

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 241.60 points at 9,686.75 and NSE Nifty ended low by 70.65 points at 2,968.65. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with loss of 83.98 points and 95.77 points at 3,175.81 and 3,639.18 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,838.38 and intraday low of 9,643.56.

On Tuesday, the US markets closed in red. The Wall Street was down again as the festive session looks muted over the sectors. In addition, the deterioration in the hosing market and the broader economy continued to hurt the sentiments of investor. On the other end, the positive cues in the market are quite and there is no reason to the upbeat. Crude oil futures for the month of February delivery fell $0.93 to $38.89 per barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange. The crude futures ended below the $40 per barrel mark as depressing economic news increased worries over weaker energy demand.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed low with 100.28 points at 8,419.49, NASDAQ index plunged by 10.81 points at 1,521.54 and the S&P 500 (SPX) also closed lower by 8.47 points to close at 863.16 points.

Indian ADRs ended mixed. In technology sector, Infosys gained by 1.08% and Wipro also gained by 1.98% whereas Satyam that dropped by 11.02% and Patni Computers closing low by 1.44%. In banking sector ICICI Bank plummeted by 6.52%, HDFC Bank fell by 4.90%. In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication surged by 3.18%, while MTNL declined by 10.03%.

Today the major stock markets in Asia opened weak. The Shanghai Composite is trading low by 11.71 at 1,885.52 Hang Seng is low by 5.24 points at 14,215.00 Further Japan''s Nikkei is lower by 216.26. points at 8,509.07 Tiwan weighted low by 4.34 points at 4,401.99 and Singapore’s Strait Times is up by 19.93 points at 1,742.72.

The FIIs on Tuesday stood as net sellers in equity and debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 943.10 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 602.10 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 1,167.10 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 935.20 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs (224.00) Crore and Rs (333.20) Crore respectively.

On Tuesday Indian Rupee closed at 48.78/81 a dollar, about 1.6% weaker than Monday''s close of 48.01/03. The fall in the rupee is primarily attributed by the foreign fund withdrawals and month-end dollar demand from importers applied downward pressure.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 29.08 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 3,378.03 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 63.43 Crore and total turnover was Rs 9,026.22 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with 97313919 shares, Suzlon Energy with total volume traded 41292198 shares, Satyam with 30885339 shares, DLF with 16160208 shares, followed by SAIL with 12922112 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 1149524 with a total turnover of Rs 16306.32 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 1496490 with a total turnover of Rs 15769.31 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1210733 with a total turnover of Rs 18374.99 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 63674 and notional turnover was Rs 681.86 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,889 and resistance at 3,020 and BSE Sensex has support at 9,470 and resistance at 9,830.

Slide may continue

Market may slide further on account of weak Asian markets in morning trades and overnight fall in the US markets. The FIIs remained net sellers in equities for last couple of sessions may also weigh on the investors' sentiment. Key indices, the Nifty may get support at 2900 level and on the upside it could test higher levels at 3010. The Sensex has a likely support at 9,550 and may face resistance at 9,850.

US indices declined on Wednesday as investors weigh mixed economic data and concerns about the auto industry. While the Dow Jones slipped 100 points at 8419, while the Nasdaq lost 11 points to close at 1522.

Indian ADRs trading on the US bourses, too, succumbed to heavy losses. Among the major losers Satyam and MTNL, shed over 10-11% each. ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Tata Motors, Rediff and Patni Computers were down around 1-6% each. However, VSNL, Wipro, Infosys and Dr Reddy ended with steady gain.

Crude oil prices lost marginally, with the Nymex light crude oil for February delivery moved down by 93 cents to close at $38.98 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for February series lost $9.10 to settle at $838.10 a troy ounce.

Market seen lower in volatile trade

Key benchmark indices are likely to extending two-day losses further mirroring weak global cues. Volatility may remain high today as December series F&O contracts expiry today, 24 December 2008.

As per reports, rollover of Nifty positions from December 2008 series to January 2009 series stood at 53% while marketwide rollover stood at 55%, as of Monday, 22 December 2008.

There is a possibility of dip in trading volumes due to a likely decline in foreign institutional participation on account of the Christmas and New Year celebrations. In that case, domestic institutions are expected to play a key role in determining the market direction. Market remains closed on Thursday, 25 December 2008 on account of Christmas.

Most Asian markets were trading lower today, 24 December 2008. China's Shanghai Composite plunged 0.58% or 11.03 points at 1,886.20, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 1.49% or 212.39 points at 14,008.40, Japan's Nikkei fell 2.69% or 234.83 points at 8,488.95, South Korea's Seoul Composite slipped 1.79% or 20.43 points at 1,123.88, Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted declined 0.37% or 16.43 points at 4,389.43. However, Singapore's Straits Times was up 0.36% or 6.18 points at 1,730.72.

In the US markets, stocks there ended lower on Tuesday, 23 December 2008 after concerns on the future of the big 3 US auto majors continued to hover. The Dow Jones slipped 100.28 points, or 1.18%, to 8,419.49. The S&P 500 index shed 8.47 points, or 0.97%, to 863.16. The Nasdaq composite index slipped 10.81 points, or 0.71%, to 1,521.54.

Back home, bears were in command on Tuesday, 23 December 2008 as market declined for the second straight day on setback in Asian stocks and caution ahead of the expiry of the near month derivatives contracts. The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 241.60 points, or 2.43%, to 9,686.75 and the S&P CNX Nifty was down 70.65 points, or 2.32%, to 2,968.65, on that day.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers worth Rs 264.05 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 88.18 crore on Tuesday, 23 December 2008, according to provisional data on NSE.

US light crude for February 2009 delivery rose 27 cents to $39.25 a barrel aided by a weaker dollar and OPEC's talk of a possible emergency meeting should prices continue their descent.

SGX Nifty Live Update - Dec 24 2008

Dec Futures 2,953.5 -20.5

Jan Futures 2,970.0 -18.0

Trading Calls - Dec 24 2008

Nifty (2969) Sup 2925 Res 3020

Buy Bajaj Hindusthan (62) SL 60 Target 66, 67

Sell Grasim (1217) SL 1238
Target 1178, 1188

Sell IVRCL Infra (142) SL 145 Target 136, 135

Sell M&M (290) SL 294
Target 282, 281

Daily News Roundup - Dec 24 2008

Wipro buys Citi’s tech arm, CTS, for US$127mn (FE)
World Bank bans Satyam from providing IT services for eight years for alleged malpractices (FE)
Government issued oil bonds worth Rs220bn to oil marketing companies, IOC, HPCL and BPCL (FE)
Unitech in talks with PEs such as TPG-Axon, Carlyle and Och-Ziff to raise up to US$500mn through issue of convertible debt instruments (ET)
RIL leases 100,000 cubic metres of clean oil products storage in Singapore (BL)
HDFC Bank raised Rs16bn through issue of subordinated debt (FE)
NTPC is targeting over 1,000 MW of renewable power generation capacity over the next ten years (BL)
Dr Reddy’s Lab has entered into agreements that will allow it to manufacture and market Clarinex products (FE)
RCom alleges that Bharti is not providing access to its Chennai submarine cable landing station; moves to TRAI (BS)
Fitch downgrades Reliance Infra’s long-term rating (FE)
Marico unlikely to reduce prices of its products despite declining input costs (FE)
Unitech is in talks with leading Indian and global steel giants to sell 25% stake in Orissa Sponge (BS)
NMDC has asked contracted buyers to stick to prices under the long term agreements (BL)
Tatas, GMR and L&T are among others in race for 60 NHDP projects (ET)
Reliance Infra bagged a contract for four-laning of Gurgaon-Faridabad road and upgradation of Ballabgarh-Sohana road on a BOT basis. (BL)
HPCL to review feasibility of the Vizag project (BL)
BHEL to select tech partner for nuclear JV in four months (ET)
Essar Group has withdrawn its plan to build SEZ in Jamnagar (BS)
HUL stops supplies to Vishal Megamart over non payment of dues (ET)
Crisil downgrades Tata Steel’s NCD (BS)
Jet Airways to raise US$500mn from DBS Bank (FE)
DCB may shut most of its retail asset business (ET)
Bajaj Auto drops Triumph plans and instead to focus attention on its KTM brand (ET)
Punj Lloyd receives contract of US$62mn from Delhi Municipal Authority (BL)
Shree Renuka Sugars forms a subsidiary company for setting-up an integrated sugar and ethanol plant in Maharashtra (BL)
Pyramid Saimira says SEBI note forged; demands probe (FE)
UTV snaps ties with Pakistan (FE)
Piramal Healthcare to buy US-based Minrad International, a provider of generic inhalation anaesthetics, for US$40mn (FE)
NDTV Imagine puts off plan to enter regional space (BL)
Promoters likely to raise stake by 10% in Vishal Retail over the next two years (BS)
KEI Industries is planning to set up a Rs1.5bn production facility in the Middle East (DNA)
Godawari Power and Ispat’s 25 MW WHRB captive power project has been registered as CDM project (BL)
NSE finds bugs in Financial Technologies software (ET)
Kamat Hotels group expands heritage segment (FE)
Mahindra Forgings may close Chakan unit for ten days (BL)

Government is likely to announce the much awaited second stimulus package in the next 2-3 days, says Mr.Kamal Nath (ET)
Communications ministry said that new entrants wining 3G spectrum in the auction next month will also be eligible for 2G radio frequencies (ET)
Repo and reverse repo rate likely to be cut by 1%, says Prof Suresh Tendulkar, Chairman of EAC (FE)
Government is expected to come out with a Rs3.5bn additional package for exporters soon (ET)
Economy to recover in Q4 FY09, says CMIE (BL)
Economic package for textile sector on cards (FE)

Christmas eve…Santa missing?

"Christmas is the time when kids tell Santa what they want and adults pay for it.
Deficits are when adults tell government what they want and their kids pay for it.”

The Santa Clause rally seems to be losing steam as worries abound over the deepening global recession in its adverse impact on earnings. Major global companies like Toyota have already started preparing the markets for the bad news ahead by issuing profit warnings. A whole host of global companies have announced massive job cuts. Manufacturing firms are trimming production to cope with the severe slowdown. Governments across the globe continue to bailout specific industries as well as companies. Then you also have the scam involving Bernard Madoff. Several banks and firms have confessed to having been hit by the massive fraud. Meanwhile, a fund manager who did business with Madoff has been found dead in mysterious circumstances in New York. On the economic front too, there doesn't seem to be any respite, with data showing that GDP in the US and UK shrunk in the quarter ending September. The housing sector in the US remains in doldrums and may take a while to recover.

Back home too, the mood seems to have gone sour yet again in the last couple of sessions. The bulls appear to be lacking the ammunition and confidence to push the Sensex higher after over 10% gain this month. The past two sessions have been rather disappointing for the bulls, who were hoping to extend the recent advance. The trend could turn positive again if global indices rebound, and FIIs resume their shopping spree. The F&O expiry today will make things much more volatile. We expect a cautious to slightly lower opening and a choppy day.

US stocks ended lower again on Tuesday amid concerns about the health of the auto and housing industries, even as the government confirmed that the world's largest economy shrank by 0.5% in the July-September quarter.

The market had drifted lower for most of the day, but losses accelerated in late afternoon trade.

After falling in the last four sessions, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 8,419.49, off 100.28 points, or 1.2%. Just five of the blue-chip index's 30 components finished in the black.

The S&P 500 Index shed 8.48 points, or 1%, to 863.15. Consumer discretionary, utilities and IT paced the sector losses among the S&P's 10 industry groups, with telecom services and healthcare hit the least.

The Nasdaq Composite Index erased 10.81 points, or 0.7%, to 1,521.54.

Market breadth was negative. Declining shares outpaced advancers roughly two-to-one as about 37 million shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). On the Nasdaq, nearly 500mn shares traded and decliners topped advancers 9 to 5.

The grim tone for Tuesday's session was set early by a raft of downbeat economic reports on housing, consumer sentiment and GDP.

The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes fell 8.6% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.49mn units from a downwardly revised 4.91mn units in October. November sales are down more than 10% versus last year and were weaker than the 4.93mn units economists forecasted.

The Realtors also said that the median existing home sold for US$181,300 in November, down 13.2% from a year ago when the median was US$208,800.

Separately, the Census Bureau said sales of new homes fell 2.9% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 407,000 from a downwardly revised total of 419,000 in October. That tally was worse than the seasonally adjusted 420,000 that economists forecasted.

The University of Michigan unexpectedly revised its consumer sentiment index higher to 60.1 from the 59.1 it announced on Dec. 12. Economists had forecast a downward revision to 58.6.

"The most significant change recorded in the December survey was the record plunge in inflation expectations," said Richard Curtin, the director of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers in a statement. Still, he warned that rising unemployment and the weak economy remain major concerns for consumers.

The Commerce Department said before the market opened that GDP shrank at a 0.5% annual rate in the third quarter. It was the third and final revision for third-quarter GDP, and the decline was in line with economists' expectations.

Shares of General Motors (GM) and Ford Motor were each down about 15% after both automakers drew downgrades from two major ratings agencies after Monday's close. Standard & Poor's said the risk of bankruptcy remains high, regardless of government loans.

ProLogis gained 10.3% after the real-estate investment trust said it was selling its operations in China and property-fund interests in Japan to GIC Real Estate for US$1.3bn, plus assumed liabilities.

Shares of CIT Group gained 1.9% after the commercial-finance company said it entered into definitive agreements with the US Treasury Department to tap US$2.33bn in Troubled Assets Relief Program funds.

American Express, the credit card company-turned-commercial bank, said it has received preliminary approval for a US$3.9bn government bailout investment.

The capital injection will come from the Treasury Department's US$700bn Troubled Asset Relief Program, which in part provides capital to banks. Shares of the company fell 2.5% despite the news.

Shares of Textron lapsed 20.5% after the company lowered its adjusted fourth-quarter earnings outlook late on Monday and said it would trim about 5% of its global workforce.

Unisys Corp., trading as a penny stock, advanced 45.3% after its announcement late on Monday that it would act to reduce costs, including laying off about 1,300 workers.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 2.16% from 2.14% on Monday. The 10-year yield dipped below 3% in November for the first time since the note was first issued in 1962.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate held steady at 1.47%. The overnight Libor edged up to 0.12% from 0.11% on Monday. Libor is a key bank lending rate.

The dollar fell versus the euro and the yen. COMEX gold for February delivery was fell US$9.10 to settle at US$838.10 an ounce.

US light crude oil for February delivery slid 93 cents to settle at US$38.98 a barrel in New York. Gasoline prices fell overnight to a national average of US$1.659 from US$1.663 a gallon.

Shares closed almost unchanged in European trading on Tuesday. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.1% % to 193.05. Economic data continued to paint a gloomy picture, with UK's GDP contracting more than expected in the third quarter.

The FTSE 100 index in London closed up 0.2% at 4,255.98, while Germany's DAX 30 index fell 0.2% to 4,629.38 and the French CAC-40 index lost 0.7% to 3,128.41.

Tuesday saw Indian markets open with a negative gap. Overnight losses in the US and weak Asian markets dragged the key indices at open. Markets continued to remain jittery ahead of the F&O expiry. The rate sensitive stocks were offloaded and also the second rung stocks were hammered. Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex ended at 9,686 losing 241 points and the NSE Nifty index ended at 2,968 losing 71 points.

All the BSE Sectoral indices ended in the red with BSE Consumer Durable index (down 6%), BSE Realty index (down 5%), BSE Bankex index (down 4%) and BSE Capital Goods index (down 3.6%).

Market breath was negative, 1,744 stocks declined against 730 advances, while, 82 stocks remained unchanged.

Wipro announced that it would provide details of its deal with Origin Energy of Australia at a press conference in Bangalore later today.

The stock ended at Rs242 lower by 1.5%. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs247 and a low of Rs240 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Bajaj Hindustan advanced by 4% to Rs62.7 after reports stated that Rahul Bajaj would sell 29.6% stake in the company to Shishir Bajaj giving him full control over the sugar company. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs64 and a low of Rs60 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Jain Irrigation advanced by 4% to Rs333 after reports stated that IFC proposes to give a corporate loan of up to US$45mn to the company. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs337 and a low of Rs320 and recorded volumes of over 6,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Suzlon Energy dropped by over 6% to Rs56 after the company declined reports stating that Suzlon may sell as much as 15% of itself to U.S.-based Carlyle Group and TPG Capital for US$300mn.

The stake sale may be part of Suzlon's plans to raise as much as US$500mn, Reuters reported, citing unnamed bankers. The company may also raise US$200mn through debt, the report said.

The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs63 and a low of Rs55 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,00,000 shares on BSE.

RCom advanced by 1.5% to Rs216 after reports stated that the company has set aside US$1bn for its 3G telecom services rollout. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs218 and a low of Rs209 and recorded volumes of over 31,00,000 shares on BSE.

The overall outlook remains uncertain, as nobody wants to take undue risks at this stage with only a few sessions to go in the year. Also with F&O expiry tomorrow, it would be wise to stay on the sidelines.

Data to watch out for in the US & Europe today:

  • Q3 GDP numbers,
  • Consumer sentiment numbers,
  • Existing home sales,
  • New home sales and
  • Retail sales index data.
  • The European Monetary Union current account and
  • UK Q3 GDP (QoQ).

Daily Technicals - Dec 24 2008

Daily Technicals - Dec 24 2008

India Cements

We recommend a sell in India Cements stock from a short-term perspective. It is apparent from the charts of India Cements that it was on a modest medium-term uptrend from its 52-week low of Rs 68, touched in late October. However, the stock encountered twin resistance around Rs 115 (July low and the long-term down trendline) and resumed its long-term downtrend. Moreover, the stock has been on a long-term downtrend from its December 2007 peak of Rs 333 level. Witnessing selling pressure at Rs 115, the stock began to decline. On December 23, the stock tumbled 7 per cent with moderate volume. The daily relative strength index (RSI) entered the neutral region from the bullish zone and weekly RSI has re-entered the bearish zone. Our short-term forecast is negative for the stock. We anticipate the stock’s decline to continue until it hits our price target of Rs 84 in the forthcoming trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 99.

Eveninger - Dec 23 2008

Eveninger - Dec 23 2008

Precious metals turn dull

Gold and silver prices go down due to a strong dollar

Bullion metal prices ended lower on Tuesday, 23 December, 2008 due to sliding crude price and strong dollar. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Tuesday, Comex Gold for February delivery fell $9.1 (1.1%) to close at $838.1 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold prices gained 2.1%. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (19%) since then.

This month, gold prices have rose 2.2% till date. For the month of November, gold prices ended higher by 14%. Prior to this, for the month of October, gold had ended lower by 18%. It was the biggest percentage loss for gold since February, 1983.

This year, gold prices are higher by 0.2%. Futures have averaged $860 in 2008. The dollar index has gained 8% this year. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.

On Tuesday, Comex silver futures for March delivery fell 59 cents (5.5%) to $10.26 an ounce. Last week, silver gained 63 cents (6%). For the month of November, silver prices had gained 5%. Till date, silver has lost 33.5% this year.

For the month of October, silver had slipped by 20%. Silver had ended month and quarter of September 2008 with a loss of 10%. For the second quarter, it had gained a paltry 1.4%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. The metal also had gained for seven straight years.

At the currency market on Friday, the dollar was up against most major counterparts. The dollar index gained 0.2% today erasing earlier losses.

The Federal Reserve surprised market last week to save the U.S. economy slashing interest rates to just above zero and promising to try an array of new economic measures to stimulate spending. The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee established a target range for the federal funds rate of zero to 0.25%, effectively cutting its key rate for overnight lending to banks by between 0.75% and 1%.

Earlier this year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records this year for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the latest move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 0.25% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in nine steps.

Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for February delivery closed higher by Rs 53 (0.4%) at Rs 13,073 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 13,208 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 12,990 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for March delivery closed Rs 492 (2.81%) lower at Rs 17,187/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 17,644/kg and fell to a low of Rs 17,000/Kg during the day's trading.