Monday, May 14, 2007
Strong global cues fueled Indian markets to open on firm note with huge gap up. Holding on the strong gains markets traded strong with a positive breath. The rally continued to be on the broad for the day with no negative bias. Markets pared some gains during in the Mid session on some profit taking but soon cheered up to trade at higher level till the end of the day. Encouraging results by State Bank of India was seen as a booster for the market today. The rally was led by Banking, Energy and Telecom sectors. The IT sector ended lower due to the strong rupee. Midcaps and smallcaps also ended up with 1.2% and 1.35 % gains respectively. There was no sign of weakness in the markets on the back of strong Asian markets.
Sensex ended up 170 points at 13965.86. It was helped up by gains in SBI (1205.75,+5 percent), TISCO (591,+4 percent), Guj Ambuja (123.65,+4 percent), HLL (192.05,+4 percent) and Cipla (211.1,+3 percent). Restricting the gains were Dr Reddys (651.25,-5 percent), Hero Honda (690.1,-2 percent), Bajaj Auto (2668.05,-2 percent), Wipro (543.9,0 percent) and TCS (1249.3,0 percent).
Automobile sector traded mix. India's largest two-wheeler manufacturer witnessed selling pressure today. The negative sentiments are attributed to the poor set of numbers for 4QFY07 as well as full year FY07. Facing pressure from all corners, The Company reported a net profit of Rs 195 crore for the quarter ended Mar 31, 2007 compared with Rs 267.19 crore in the year-ago quarter. Performance for the full year has also been disappointing, as despite the 14% YoY jump in topline, it is the 390 basis points fall in operating margins that have acted as the wrecker-in-chief. Hero Honda Motors was among the major losers on the Sensex, down 2%, after it posted disappointing March quarter numbers announced after market hours on Friday.
The Banking sector witnessed positive rally. India's second largest public sector lender Punjab National Bank (PNB) set up its wholly-owned subsidiary in the UK to cater to the financial services requirements of the huge Indian Diaspora by establishing Punjab National Bank (International) Ltd (PNBIL), PNB is confident of servicing the needs not only of individual customers but also of businesses and institutions that seek to engage with India. PNBIL will primarily act for UK companies transacting business with India and vice versa. Besides, it will also enable customers to transmit remittances to and from India. PNBIL will provide an essential link between the two diverse markets. UK is India's second largest trade partner, accounting for 5% of India's total foreign trade in goods. PNB ended almost 5% up.
Cement sector traded in green. Shree Cement reported its financial number. Net profit of declined 60% to Rs 24 Cr in the quarter ended March 2007 as against Rs 61 Cr during the previous quarter ended March 2006. Sales rose 67.75% to Rs 378 Cr in the quarter ended March 2007 as against Rs 225.50 crore during the previous quarter ended March 2006. For the full year net profit rose to Rs 177.00 Cr in the year ended March 2007 as against Rs 18.5 Cr during the previous year ended March 2006. Sales rose 104 to Rs 1368 Cr in the year ended March 2007 as against Rs 667 Cr during the previous year ended March 2006.
Technically Speaking: Markets traded strong. Sensex touched an intraday high of 14026 levels and low of 13924 levels. Volumes were good as the market churned almost Rs. 4117 Cr. Overall breadth was in favor of Advances, where the advances were 1639 against Declines of 928. Good resistance is seen at 14070 levels with the support at 13860 levels.
The Sensex remained firm today on the back of firm Asian markets and strong quarterly results from SBI, LIC Housing Finance, Shobha Developers and Indian Bank. The market opened on a positive note, tracking positive global cues at 13954, up 158 points. The strong optimism among traders kept the Sensex above the 13900 mark. In the mid morning trades the buoyancy among front-line, banking, oil and metal stocks lifted the Sensex to touch the day's high of 14026. The market remained buoyant thereafter, but the 14000 mark continued to elude the Sensex. The Sensex finally ended the session with a gain of 170 points at 13966 while the Nifty closed the session at 4134, up 58 points.
The breadth of the market was positive. Of the 2,642 stocks traded on the BSE, 1,641 stocks advanced, 916 stocks declined and 85 stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices the BSE Bankex index jumped 2.45% at 7074 followed by the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 2.31% at 7355), the BSE PSU index (up 2.16% at 6532) and the BSE Metal index (up 1.95% at 10262).
Most of the heavyweights ended at higher levels. Among the blue chips, SBI shot up by 4.92% at Rs1,206, Tata Steel soared 3.86% at Rs591,Gujarat Ambuja Cement surged 3.69% at Rs124, HLL advanced by 3.56% at Rs192, Cipla added 3% at Rs211, ICICI Bank moved up 2.53% at Rs870, ONGC scaled up 2.26% at Rs907 and ACC was up 2.01% at Rs867. Among the laggards, Dr Reddy's Lab dropped 4.71% at Rs651, Hero Honda slipped 2.09% at Rs690 and Bajaj Auto shed 1.86% at Rs2,668 while Wipro, TCS, Tata Motors, HDFC Bank, L&T and ITC closed marginally lower.
Banking stocks were in the limelight and closed with strong gains. Union Bank jumped 5.22% at Rs119, Canara Bank soared 5.12% at Rs230, Oriental Bank surged 4.82% at Rs201, Punjab National Bank added 4.35% at Rs535, Indian Overseas Bank gained 4.31% at Rs119 and Bank of Baroda advanced by 4.31% at Rs270.
Over 2.52 crore Reliance Natural Resources shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Nagarjuna Fertilizer (1.47 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (1.14 crore shares), IDBI (86.39 lakh shares) and Mangalore Chemical & Fertilizers (70.02 lakh shares).
Reliance Industries clocked a turnover of Rs142 crore on the BSE followed by India Bulls Real Estate (Rs138 crore), ICRA (Rs133 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs104 crore) and Page Industries (Rs86 crore).
The market surged today on firm global markets, strong Q4 March 2007 results announced by the State Bank of India (SBI) on Saturday 12 May 2007, and on prospects of political stability in Uttar Pradesh. But the Sensex came off the higher level after an initial 229.86-point rally that took it above 14,000 to 14,026.02.
The Sensex remained firm but range bound for the day, hovering between 13,924.02 to 13,995, gaining between 128 to 200 points for the day. Its provisional closing was 13956.18, a gain of 160.02 points.
SBI surged and a host of other PSU banks rallied boosted by SBI’s strong Q4 showing. FMCG giant Hindustan Lever and cement pivotals soared, boosted by reports of a favourable monsoon. Tata Steel extended gains on expectation of strong Q4 March 2007 results.
But two-wheeler makers dropped hit by Hero Honda’s dismal Q4 results, and the rupee’s rise weighed on IT shares.
The market breadth remained strong as select side counters surged: 1,639 shares rose on BSE as compared to 928 shares that declined, while 85 stocks were unchanged. Gainers outpaced losers by a ratio of 1.76:1.
BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4117 crore compared to Rs 4446.79 crore on Friday, 11 May 2007.
SBI jumped 5% to Rs 1205.80. On Saturday, 12 May 2007, India's largest public sector bank reported a 75% growth in net profit to Rs 1493.19 crore in Q4 March 2007, from Rs 853.29 crore in Q4 March 2006. Net interest income rose 22% to Rs 4320 crore. Net profit was up 3% to Rs 4541.31 crore in the year ending March 2007.
Tata Steel jumped4% to Rs 593. The stock has gained on renewed buying at lower level on expectation of strong Q4 March 2007 results. Tata Steel unveils Q4 results on 17 May 2007. Analysts expect strong Q4 results from the steel major on higher steel prices. Last month, Tata Steel had announced an attractively priced (Rs 300) rights issue in the ratio of 1:5.
FMCG giant Hindustan Lever advanced 4% to Rs 192.95 boosted by reports that the south-west monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast around 24 May 2007, one week earlier than the scheduled date of 1 June 2007. FMCG derives substantial revenue from rural sector.
The HLL stock had dropped 11.4% to Rs 185.45 in the fortnight ended 11 May 2007 after reporting a fall in net profit. During trading hours on 30 April 2007, HLL said net profit had declined 10% to Rs 392.89 crore in Q1 March 2007. Sales rose 14% to Rs 3184.32 crore.
Cement shares, too, got a boost from favourable reports of monsoon. Gujarat Ambuja Cements gained 4% to Rs 124.05, Grasim 2.5% to Rs 2490 and ACC 1.7% to Rs 865. Cement firms derive a large portion of their revenue from rural housing.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries rose 1.7% to Rs 1618. On BSE, 8.8 lakh shares changed hands in the stock.
Drug maker Dr. Reddy's Laboratories lost 4.4% to Rs 653 after a US court on Friday, 11 May 2007, upheld a patent protecting Eisai Company’s Aciphex ulcer drug.
The Indian rupee appreciated to 40.92 per dollar on Monday, 14 May 2007, up 0.7% from Friday's close, as investors shrugged off worries about possible central bank intervention to cap currency gains.
The Indian meteorological department on Monday, 14 May 2007, forecast that annual monsoon rains would arrive in Kerala on 24 May 2007. "The predictors for this year suggest an early monsoon onset over Kerala," an official statement from the Indian Meteorological Department said. "The forecast model suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be on 24 May, with a model error of plus or minus three days," it added.
The centre’s customs and excise duty receipts were up 19.1% at Rs 13862 crore in April 2007 over April 2006, the finance ministry said on Monday, 14 May 2007. Customs collections were up 27.4% at Rs 7221 crore, while excise collections grew 11.3% to Rs 6640 crore in April 2007 over April 2006.
Sharekhan Daring Derivatives for May 14, 2007
Sharekhan Commodities Buzz dated May 14, 2007
Sharekhan Eagle Eye (commodities) for May 14, 2007
Sharekhan Highnoon dated May 14, 2007
Kotak - India Strategy, State Bank of India, Hero Honda, Asian Paints, Dr Reddy's Labs, India Telecom, India Economy
Good morning bulls…welcome to danger zone
Get the facts, or the facts will get you. And when you get them, get them right, or they will get you wrong.
After a fairly choppy trading week and a searing weekend, the bulls have something to cheer about this morning. The Asian markets have rallied on the back of Friday's steep gains in US stocks. The F&O indicators are also positive, with the May Nifty futures turning into premium from a big discount. What's more 31 new scrips will be added in the derivative segment today. The rupee has also cooled off a bit after hitting a nine-year peak last Monday. So, expect some positive action in IT shares. What's also encouraging is that inflation too seems to be softening though we will have to wait and see how it behaves going forward.
The stage is set for a rebound today after last week's 1% drop in both the key indices. That's more or less the good news. The bad news, however, is that there are not many triggers to bank on, barring the monsoon of course. Nothing sensible in the thought, but the dates this week brings back memories of two major crashes in the last three years. Don't be surprised if a sharp fall comes your way, again for no valid reason.
Valuations appear to be expensive as ever. The series of monetary tightening steps is expected to bring about a slowdown in both GDP growth as well as corporate earnings. As a result, the market will depend on stock specific news and inflows from FIIs to ascertain its future direction. We continue to advocate some caution at higher levels though value buyers can pick fundamentally sound companies at every correction.
The Dow Jones had a triple-digit gain on Friday after a mild reading on inflation and a weak reading on retail sales raised hopes that the Fed could cut rates later in the year.
The Dow climbed 111.09 points or 0.8% to 13,326.22. It was up 0.5% on the week. The broader S&P 500 index advanced 14.38 points or nearly 1% to 1,505.85, but ended the week little changed. The Nasdaq Composite was up 28.48 points or 1.1% to 2,562.22, but slipped 0.4% on the week.
US light crude oil for June delivery rose 56 cents to settle at $62.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The front-month contract was down 7 cents at $62.30 a barrel.
COMEX gold for June delivery rose $5.30 to settle at $672.30 an ounce. Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 4.67% from 4.63% late on Thursday. In currency trading, the dollar slipped against the euro and rose against the yen.
European indexes advanced on Friday. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index gained 0.4% to 389.34. The German DAX Xetra 30 closed up 0.9% at 7,479.34. The French CAC-40 added 0.6% to 6,050.63, and the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.6% to 6,565.70.
In the emerging markets, the Ibovespa index in Brazil gained 1.3% at 50,902 while the IPC index in Mexico jumped 1.4% to 30,058 and the RTS index in Russia slumped 2.5% to 1845.
Asian markets rose for the first time in three days this morning following a tepid reading on wholesale inflation. The Nikkei in Tokyo is up 187 points at 17,740 while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong shot up by 514 points to 20,982. The Kospi in Seoul is up 5 points at 1608 and the Straits Times in Singapore advanced 53 points to 3500.
As per the data posted on the NSE's web site, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs5.14bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutions pumped in Rs4.4bn on the same day. In the F&O segment, foreign funds were net sellers at Rs5.07bn.
FIIs were net buyers of Rs1.91bn on Thursday, according to SEBI. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs2.27bn on the same day.
Bajaj Auto will remain in focus ahead of its Board meeting on May 17 for the company's demerger. UB is likely to gain amid reports that the company will buy Whyte & Mackay for $1.3bn. Trent may attract some attention as a financial daily reports that iconic lifestyle retail firm Ralph Lauren is likely to sign a deal with the Tatas for its India foray. Telecom shares could be hit after the resignation of telecom minister Dayanidhi Maran.
Shiv Vani Oil may rise amid market grapevine that it may receive a big order from ONGC. MphasiS BFL could advance amid reports that it will get more orders from parent EDS. Shyam Telecom is reportedly looking at acquisitions in Europe or Asia. RIL could be in action as reports suggest that the company is sitting on another huge gas reserve at its North East Coast (NEC) blocks. SBI is likely to gain after reporting better than expected results over the weekend.
Matrix Labs is expected to rally after its US parent Mylan bagged the deal to acquire the generic business of German drug maker Merck. Torrent Pharma and Aurobindo Pharma are expected to move up as well as they were also in the race for the big-ticket acquisition.
Bulls made a solid come back as last half an hour's trade lifted the key indices to close in positive terrain. Weak global cues dampened the sentiment at opening, dragging the markets lower. However, better than expected inflation figures which was at 5.66% in week ended April 28 against expectation of 5.75% and rise in India's March industrial production which rose 12.9% from year ago lifted the market from its day's low. Wild intra-day gyrations during the trading session pulled and pushed the markets in and out of positive terrain. Finally, the 30-share benchmark Sensex gained 24 points to close at 13796. NSE Nifty was up 10 points to close at 4076.
Page Industries and Redington were among the star performers however, ACC and M&M disappointed. The BSE FMCG and Pharma index dragged as Technology and Auto index were major gainers. Sugar stocks were the show stoppers of the day as they attracted buying interest towards the fag end of the session.
Moser Baer gained 2.5% to Rs381 after the company announced that the home video major, has acquired copyrights and exclusive licenses for 7000 films in all major Indian languages, placing it far ahead of its rivals. The scrip touched intra- day high of Rs385 and a low of Rs362 and recorded volumes of over 10,00,000 shares on NSE.
Tata Power edged lower 0.5% to Rs571. The company announced its plans to bid for a $400 million defense contract. The scrip touched intra- day high of Rs576 and a low of Rs551 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,000 shares on NSE.
Pratibha Industries ended o a flat note at Rs222. The Company announced that they would pay final Dividend of Rs2 a share. The scrip touched intra- day high of Rs226 and a low of Rs214 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.
Metal stocks lost their shine on back of profit booking. Tata Steel dropped 1.8% to Rs569, Hindalco was down 1.4% to Rs144, Sterlite Industries slipped 1% to Rs549 and Hindustan Zinc shed 0.8% to Rs712.
Cement stocks were badly battered out as profit booking dragged them lower. ACC declined 2.8% to Rs850, Grasim was down 2.5% to Rs2425, Gujarat Ambuja dropped 1% to Rs119 and Mangalam Cement slipped 0.8% to Rs141.
Technology stocks gained momentum and witnessed buying interest after the rupee hovered around the Rs41 per dollar mark. Index heavy weight Infosys gained 1.4% to Rs2000, Moser Baer advanced 2.4% to Rs381, Mphasis BFL was up 2.1% to Rs319 and HCL Tech added 1.7% to Rs330
Sugar stocks were back in action as they witnessed fresh buying. Renuka Sugar rallied by over 10% to Rs526, Bajaj Hindusthan jumped by over 7% to Rs169 and Sakhti Sugar was also up 10% to Rs94.
ICICI Bank Ltd: KS Badri Narayanan, Deputy General Manager has sold in open market 2575 equity shares of ICICI Bank Ltd on 3rd, 4th and 7th May, 2007.
BSE IT index was the major gainer and gained 0.81%. BSE PSU index (up 0.62%), BSE Bank index (up 0.60%), BSE Auto index (up 0.51%) and Oil & Gas index (up 0.45) were among the other major gainers. However, BSE FMCG index lost 1.13%.
IFCI, RNRL, IDBI, TTML, DCB, PFC, Page Industries, Reliance Industries, ITC, Balrampur Chini, Petronet LNG, IDEA, Indiabulls, Dena Bank, HLL and Redington India
Aptech, Teledata, Shree Ashtavinyak, Ansal Infrastructure, Educomp Solutions, PSTL, Deep Industries, ACE, Shree Precoated and BF Utilities.
Arvind Mills, Bajaj Auto, Balrampur Chini, Bank of Baroda, HCL Technologies, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Ranbaxy and Voltas.
Ashok Leyland, VSNL, Wockhardt, Tata Elxsi, SAIL, SCI, Apollo Tyres, HCL Tech and Crompton Greaves.
Allsec Technologies, Indian Bank, Sobha Developers, Suzlon, Voltas, Ess Dee Aluminium, Mukand, NEPC Textiles, Shree Cement, Whirlpool India, LIC Housing Finance, Hindustan Oil Exploration, EMCO, and Welspun Gujarat.
SBI Q4 profit at Rs14.93bn (up 75%), total revenue at Rs72.14bn (up 21.9%) and to pay Rs14 a share as dividend.
Hero Honda net income (down 27%) to Rs1.95bn and net sales at Rs26.39bn (up 17%).
HLL – Buy from CLSA with target of Rs240.
Long Term investment:
Major News Headlines:
March Industrial Production rises 12.9% from year ago
Inflation in week ended April 28 at 5.66% vs expectation of 5.75%
EKC to mull stock split and plans to raise funds on 21st May
NTPC signs JV agreement with Singareni Collieries
Pratibha Industries to pay final dividend of Rs2 a share
Tata Power unit to bid for $400mn Indian Defence deal
Merrill Lynch raises stake in IVRCL Infra to 5.2%.
Market Grape Wine :
In House :
Nifty at a support of 4000 levels with nifty expected at 4200 levels on expiry of May Contract .
Buy : Construction sector looks positive
Buy : UnionBank , OBC & SBIN
Out House :
Markets at a support of 13717 & 13656 levels with resistance at 13919 & 14041 levels .
Maintain strict stop loss as markets to be choppy and volatile .
Buy : RIL & Divis
Buy : SBIN & IciciBank
Buy : IDBI
Buy : BajajAuto & PFC
Buy : Skumar & GujNreCoke
Buy : JSW , Tisco & sail
Buy : IBulls
Dark Horse : IBUlls , Unitech , Divis , GuNreCoke , EduComp , NIIT Tech , BajajAuto & Siemens
Bullet for the day : GujNreCoke , IBulls with strict stop loss
The market is likely to extend Friday (11 May)'s gains on prospects of political stability in the largest Indian state Uttar Pradesh, strong financial performance from State Bank of India announced on Saturday (12 May) and on firm global markets.
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati was sworn is as the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh on Sunday 13 May 2007. The market had eked out small gains alebit in highly volatile trade on Friday as trends in UP assembly election showed that Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was set to emerge as the single largest party in state contrary to fears of a hung assembly. Data showing moderating inflation and strong industrial output in March 2007 aided the recovery on that day as Sensex rose 25 points.
On Saturday, State Bank of India reported 75% growth in net profit in Q4 March 2007 at Rs 1493.19 crore from Rs 853.29 crore in Q4 March 2006. For FY 2007, net profit rose 3% to Rs 4541.31 crore from Rs 4406.67 crore. Some important March 2007 quarter results are scheduled this week and the market will take its cue from how these results shape in. Bajaj Auto and Tata Steel report Q4 results on Thursday, 17 May 2007. The board of Bajaj Auto will also consider proposal to split the company into two along with results. Tata Motors and Dr Reddy's Laboratories unveil Q4 results on Friday 18 May 2007.
Foreign funds stepped up buying on the bourses on Thursday 10 May 2007. FIIs bought shares worth a net Rs 191.50 crore on Thursday as compared to their inflow of Rs 23.30 crore on Wednesday 9 May 2007. However, provisional data showed that FIIs pressed heavy sales worth Rs 514 crore on Friday 11 May 2007, the day when Sensex had risen 25 points in highly volatile trade.
Meanwhile, communication and IT minister Dayananidhi Maran on Sunday night resigned from the Union Cabinet after DMK decided to get him removed in the wake of the severe embarrassment to Chief Minister M Karunanidhi following the exposure of chinks in the party's first family. The action against Maran, the 41-year-old son of late Murasoli Maran and nephew of Karunanidhi, came under mounting demand within the party four days after 'Dinakaran', a daily owned by the union minister's elder brother Kalanidhi Maran, was attacked in Madurai in which three people lost their lives. DMK is a key ally in the Manmohan Singh-led UPA collation at the centre.
Favourable US inflation data and rise in US stocks triggered recovery in Asian stocks on Monday after Friday's slide. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were up by between 0.12% to 2.3%.
US stocks rose on Friday, rebounding from their steepest fall in two months, on reassuring inflation news that may give the Federal Reserve room to lower interest rates. Energy stocks also led the way higher as oil futures rose. Higher energy costs pushed US producer prices up 0.7% in April 2007, but excluding volatile food and energy prices, the index was unchanged from March 2007. The Dow Jones industrial average was up 111.09 points, or 0.84%, at 13,326.22. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 14.38 points, or 0.96%, at 1,505.85. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 28.48 points, or 1.12%, at 2,562.22.
In recent days, a spate of merger and acquisition activity as well as increasingly eye-popping takeover bids have helped propel many global indices to record highs. However, the sharp and swift surge has raised concerns of a steep correction.
After witnessing the surge on Friday the market is expected to make further headways on firm Asian markets, which are up over 1% in current trades. With no clear direction to proceed, the market is witnessing the brief periods of optimism and threats. The market may see some short-term profit bookings in frontline stocks might creat volatility in the afternoon trades. Among the domestic indices, the Nifty could test higher levels of 4200 and may dip to 4040 on the downside. The Sensex has a likely support at 13700 and may face resistance at 14300. Major US indices registered significant gains on Friday, after a mild reading on inflation and a weak reading on retail sales raised hopes that the Federal Reserve might cut rates later in the year. While the Dow Jones flared up by 111 points at 13326, the Nasdaq moved up by 28 points to close at 2562. All the Indian ADRs traded firm on the US bourses. MTNL led the pack with gains of over 4% followed by Rediff and ICICI Bank gaining over 3%, while Infosys, Satyam, Wipro, HDFC Bank, Dr Reddy's Lab, Tata Motors and VSNL jumped over 1-2% each. Crude oil prices rose on Friday, with the Nymex light crude oil for June delivery gaining 56 cents to close at $62.37 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for June delivery gained $5.30 to settle at $672.30 an ounce.
Merrill Lynch - GAIL
Merrill Lynch - Ranbaxy