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Monday, March 17, 2008

NSE Bulk Deal Watch - March 17 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
17-MAR-2008,ADHUNIK,Adhunik Metaliks Limited,MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER MAURITIUS CO. LTD,BUY,1338075,133.50,-
17-MAR-2008,ARCHIES,Archies Limited,FE SECURITIES PVT LTD,BUY,55000,86.10,-
17-MAR-2008,BHAGYNAGAR,Bhagyanagar India Limited,MERRILL LYNCH CAPITAL MARKETS ESPANA S.A. SVB,BUY,1070457,41.20,-
17-MAR-2008,DREDGECORP,Dredging Corporation of I,DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED,BUY,214700,595.00,-
17-MAR-2008,GSSAMERICA,GSS America Infotech Limi,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,BUY,74214,613.17,-
17-MAR-2008,GSSAMERICA,GSS America Infotech Limi,V AND U CAPLEASE PVT LTD,BUY,164581,609.66,-
17-MAR-2008,GTCIND,GTC Industries Ltd,DOVER SECURITIES LIMITED,BUY,262,279.50,-
17-MAR-2008,GTL,GTL Limited,GLOBAL ASSET HLDG CORIN P.LTD,BUY,681130,238.59,-
17-MAR-2008,LAKSHMIEFL,Lakshmi Energy and Foods,DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED,BUY,1250000,205.00,-
17-MAR-2008,MADHUCON,Madhucon Projects Limited,DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED,BUY,1204000,450.00,-
17-MAR-2008,MADRASFERT,Madras Fertilizers Ltd,NEO SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,817216,10.82,-
17-MAR-2008,MIC,MIC Electronics Limited,MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER MAURITIUS CO. LTD,BUY,463264,744.00,-
17-MAR-2008,MORARJETEX,Morarjee Textiles Limited,RUNNER MARKETING PVT LTD,BUY,100000,29.75,-
17-MAR-2008,NORTHGATE,Northgate Technologies Li,DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED,BUY,815472,368.00,-
17-MAR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,P R B SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD,BUY,566757,136.62,-
17-MAR-2008,PARACABLES,Paramount Communications,MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER MAURITIUS CO. LTD,BUY,3675000,26.40,-
17-MAR-2008,PRAENG,Prajay Engineers Syndicat,MERRILL LYNCH CAPITAL MARKETS ESPANA S.A. SVB,BUY,236855,274.00,-
17-MAR-2008,PRITHVI,Prithvi Information Solut,PRASHANT SHRIMAL,BUY,100000,139.45,-
17-MAR-2008,STRTECH,Sterlite Technologies Ltd,MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER MAURITIUS CO. LTD,BUY,687112,163.70,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,ABHINAV GARG(HUF),BUY,295499,71.93,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.,BUY,163373,74.34,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,ASHOK KUMAR,BUY,184724,73.42,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,BHARTI MALIK,BUY,341613,71.47,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,BHAVNA D VORA,BUY,150970,72.08,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,LATIN MANHARLAL SECURITIES PVT. LTD.,BUY,257273,74.85,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,MALLINATH SHARES & STOCK PVT LTD,BUY,212518,74.46,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,MANISH VRAJLAL SARVAIYA,BUY,375355,73.66,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,NISSAR BROTHERS,BUY,200909,69.64,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,BUY,437258,73.57,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,SANJAY BHANWARLAL JAIN,BUY,303991,71.99,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,SHAH HEMANG DINESH,BUY,180411,75.94,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,SHIV KUMAR,BUY,174448,70.23,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,SUNIL PANDURANG MANTRI,BUY,187525,71.83,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,377672,73.90,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,VIMESHDOSHI,BUY,158158,72.37,-
17-MAR-2008,ADHUNIK,Adhunik Metaliks Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,1338075,133.50,-
17-MAR-2008,APTECHT,Aptech Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,376850,172.50,-
17-MAR-2008,ARCHIES,Archies Limited,ANMOL FINPRO PVT LTD,SELL,55000,86.10,-
17-MAR-2008,BHAGYNAGAR,Bhagyanagar India Limited,BSMA LTD,SELL,1070457,41.20,-
17-MAR-2008,CCL,CCL Products (I) Ltd,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,281595,150.00,-
17-MAR-2008,DREDGECORP,Dredging Corporation of I,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,214700,595.00,-
17-MAR-2008,DSKULKARNI,DS Kulkarni Dev. Ltd.,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,712081,166.50,-
17-MAR-2008,GSSAMERICA,GSS America Infotech Limi,CHOKHANI SECURITIES LTD,SELL,74214,611.76,-
17-MAR-2008,GSSAMERICA,GSS America Infotech Limi,V AND U CAPLEASE PVT LTD,SELL,164581,620.10,-
17-MAR-2008,GTCIND,GTC Industries Ltd,DOVER SECURITIES LIMITED,SELL,150198,278.00,-
17-MAR-2008,GTL,GTL Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,817724,237.05,-
17-MAR-2008,JSWSTEEL,JSW Steel Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,1417329,912.00,-
17-MAR-2008,KSOILS,K S Oils Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,9475563,66.90,-
17-MAR-2008,LAKSHMIEFL,Lakshmi Energy and Foods,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,1250000,205.00,-
17-MAR-2008,MADHUCON,Madhucon Projects Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,1204000,450.00,-
17-MAR-2008,MADRASFERT,Madras Fertilizers Ltd,NEO SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,772120,10.80,-
17-MAR-2008,MEGASOFT,Megasoft Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,1747086,78.00,-
17-MAR-2008,MIC,MIC Electronics Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,463264,744.00,-
17-MAR-2008,MONNETISPA,Monnet Ispat Ltd,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,1850000,449.00,-
17-MAR-2008,MORARJETEX,Morarjee Textiles Limited,NUCO MERCHANDISE PVT LTD,SELL,100000,29.75,-
17-MAR-2008,NORTHGATE,Northgate Technologies Li,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,815472,368.00,-
17-MAR-2008,OPTOCIRCUI,Opto Circuits (India) Lim,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,550452,336.50,-
17-MAR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,650000,196.75,-
17-MAR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,FORTIS FINVEST LTD,SELL,470000,127.54,-
17-MAR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,P R B SECURITIES PRIVATE LTD,SELL,572007,136.62,-
17-MAR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,RAGHAVENDRA RAO DIVYA,SELL,984137,130.76,-
17-MAR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,RAGHAVENDRA RAO SOWMYA,SELL,1249587,135.69,-
17-MAR-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,SAMTA JAIN,SELL,650000,145.34,-
17-MAR-2008,ORGINFO,ORG Informatics Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,857000,34.00,-
17-MAR-2008,PARACABLES,Paramount Communications,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,3675000,26.40,-
17-MAR-2008,PRAENG,Prajay Engineers Syndicat,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,236855,274.00,-
17-MAR-2008,PRITHVI,Prithvi Information Solut,VSB INVESTMENTS P LTD,SELL,105311,147.66,-
17-MAR-2008,SKUMARSYNF,S. Kumars Nationwide Ltd,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,2637400,147.10,-
17-MAR-2008,SREINTFIN,SREI Infrastructure Finan,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,1125201,130.57,-
17-MAR-2008,STRTECH,Sterlite Technologies Ltd,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,687112,163.70,-
17-MAR-2008,TECHNOELEC,Techno Ele. & Eng. Co Ltd,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,360292,207.00,-
17-MAR-2008,USHAMART,Usha Martin Limited,BSMA LIMITED,SELL,5973215,67.00,-
17-MAR-2008,VALECHAENG,Valecha Engineering Limit,VINCENT COMMERCIAL CO LTD,SELL,200000,155.00,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,ABHINAV GARG(HUF),SELL,295499,72.02,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,AMBIT SECURITIES BROKING PVT. LTD.,SELL,163373,74.55,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,ASHOK KUMAR,SELL,184724,73.47,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,BHARTI MALIK,SELL,341613,71.44,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,BHAVNA D VORA,SELL,150970,72.19,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,LATIN MANHARLAL SECURITIES PVT. LTD.,SELL,257273,74.94,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,MALLINATH SHARES & STOCK PVT LTD,SELL,212519,74.49,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,MANISH VRAJLAL SARVAIYA,SELL,375355,73.52,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,NISSAR BROTHERS,SELL,200909,69.59,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,PRASHANT JAYANTILAL PATEL,SELL,437258,74.03,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,SANJAY BHANWARLAL JAIN,SELL,303991,72.00,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,SHAH HEMANG DINESH,SELL,180411,75.81,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,SHIV KUMAR,SELL,174448,69.94,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,SUNIL PANDURANG MANTRI,SELL,186056,71.77,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,375672,73.59,-
17-MAR-2008,VGUARD,V-Guard Industries Limite,VIMESHDOSHI,SELL,158158,72.98,-

Market Close: Global massacre intensifies?

It was an extremely bad start to the week. More bad news from the US kept the markets pinned down. The US Fed cut 25 bps today, a day ahead of the Fed meet and market expects another 50-75 bps cut tomorrow. Along with this news from the US investment bank Bear Stearns that has taken a toll on markets all at once. Markets ended hard near lowest point of the day with a sharp cut on account of heavy selling in scrip?s across sectors. India also led the downtrend with losses of over 1000 points followed by Asian peers such as Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite. It was second biggest single day point fall for Sensex ever. Selling pressure continued to keep market head down with no signs of recovery seen till the final hour to end in deep red. Banks topped the laggard down by 9% followed by Realty, Metal index down over 8%. The days low came right towards the end after losses continued to mount with each passing hour. Weak cues from Asia and Europe also kept buying away from market. Asian markets ended in red while Europe follows the global weaker trend.

Sensex ended down by 1020 points at 14740.12. Weighing on the Sensex were losses in Bajaj Auto (661.4,-14 percent), ICICI Bk (757.4,-14 percent), HDFC (2225.55,-11 percent), Hindalco (164.85,-9 percent) and Rel Energy (1190.8,-8 percent). Losses are restricted by gains in .

Apar Industries which is into specialty oil and power conductors reported a long term lubricant supply agreement with Italy's Piaggio. Apar earns around 45% of its revenues from Speciality oil which enjoys good level of margins. Apar will now supply AGIP brand engine oils for Piaggio's entire range of vehicles manufactured in India. The tie-up would generate Rs 75 cr in revenue in the initial contract period. This type of tie ups are significant because India is the largest three wheeler market in the world and Piaggio is the largest three wheeler player in the Indian market. Valuations are fair at the current market price. Future outlook remains promising as the Speciality oil business is expected to do well in near term. One can keep watch here to get in at lower levels. Do have a look at our detailed research note for better understanding.

Gujarat Gas Company Limited (GGCL) primarily engaged in procurement and distribution of natural gas is now focusing on household gas connections. The company has earmarked huge expansion plans same during 2008. The company has planned capital expenditure of Rs 1.2 bn in addition to another Rs 30 cr for network upgradation in 2008. The move is in line with the company's plans to improve its customer mix from low margin bulk business to high margin retail business, which will help the company to maintain its gross gas spreads. The stock traded down 3%.

Technically Speaking: Sensex traded extremely weak for entire day. It made an intraday high of 15,327 and low of 14740. The overall breadth was in favor of Declines while Advances stood at 288 and Declines at 2402. Sensex has made a fresh downward target up to 14400 and 13800. We expect the current downside to get over at 13800. On the higher side, resistance is at 15200.

Post Market Commentary - March 17 2008

The Indian market after facing the bloodbath closed with heavy losses during the trading session. The market declined as the US Federal Reserve emergency step to cut in its discount rate by 25 basis point ignited the concerns of more global credit crisis that led to the negative sentiments to rule in all major markets all over the world. The dollar fell to as low as 95.76 yen, which is the weakest since Aug. 15, 1995 as growing concern about widening credit- market losses. From the sectoral point, heavy selling was witnessed from the metal, capital goods, bankex and realty baskets. The BSE Sensex declined by 951.03 points to close at 14,809.49 and NSE Nifty fell by 242.7 points to close at 4,503.10. The Sensex has touched an intraday low of 14,738.27. The BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap also followed the benchmark indices to close lower by 459.10 points and 557.27 points at 6,124.35 and 7,522.23 respectively. The market breadth was also weak as 2,404 stocks closed in red while 282 stocks closed in green.

The Metal index declined by 1119.35 points to close at 13,725.52. Major losers are Sesa Goa (12%), Jindal Saw (11.09%), Hindalco Inds (9.20%) and Tata Steel (7.93%).

The Capital Goods index closed lower by 873.63 points at 12,706.31. Losers are Havell India (14.87%), Alstom Projects (14.84%), Praj Inds (12.48%), L&T (7.03%) and Bhel (4.41%).

The Oil and Gas index fell by 552.95 points to close at 9,801.86 as IOCL (8.32%), Aban Offshore (7.86%), RNRL (6.83%) and Essar Oil (5.54%) closed lower.

The Bankex index dropped by 753.93 points to close at 7,569.16 as Yes bank (14.85%), ICICI bank (13.76%), Federal bank (12.29%), BOI (8.20%) and SBI (4.72%) closed in red.

The BSE Realty index slipped by 606.30 points to close at 7,106.53. Scrips that fell are HDIL (13.56%), Sobha Dev (11.97%), Purvankara (10.83%), Akruti city (10.53%) and Ansal Infra (10.22%).

From the IT baskets, Karut Net (9.98%), HCL Tech (9.33%), Aptech (7.03%), Wipro (3.75%) and Infosys (2.44%) closed lower.

Heavyweight, auto stocks drag market down

After the Sensex gained over 400 points on sustained all-round buying, the market was gloomy amid a range-bound trend during intra-day trades. After resuming 400 points down from the yesterday's close, the market continued to ease and slipped further in afternoon, as investors tracked weak Asian indices and remained concerned over foreign and domestic fund outflows from the market. Major corrections in Banking, consumer durables (CD), realty, metal and capital goods (CG) stocks saw the Sensex plunge deep into the red in late trades and slumped below the 14,800 mark to touch the intra-day low of 14,738, down over 6%. The Sensex finally closed the session with a loss of 951 points at 14,809, while the Nifty slipped 243 points to close at 4,503.

The market breadth was extremely weak. Of the 2,716 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,404 stocks declined, 282 stocks advanced and 30 stocks ended unchanged. Among the sectoral indices, the BSE CD index shed 9.69% at 3,638, while the BSE Bankex index declined 9.06% at 7,569.

Select heavyweights declined sharply on strong selling pressure. ICICI Bank tanked 13.76% at Rs757.40, Jaiprakash dropped 11.94% at Rs208.05, HDFC fell 11.07% at Rs2,225.55, Hindalco shed 9.20% at Rs164.85, REL lost 8.13% at Rs1,190.80, Tata Steel declined 7.93% at Rs658.50, DLF dipped 7.86% at Rs602.80 and L&T slumped by 7.03% at Rs2,703.50. Reliance Communications, Infosys, Grasim, Reliance Industies, Ranbaxy Laboratories and HDFC Bank shed over 5-6% each.

Select CD and CD stocks came under selling pressure. Rajesh Export slumped 15.58% at Rs79.65, Titan Industries declined 13.03% at Rs930.05, Lloyds element lost 11.37% at Rs97.80, Blue Star India fell 10.26% at Rs380.50, Gitanjali was down 7.89% at Rs233.35 and Videocon lost 7.46% at Rs279.30. In the Bankex segment, Yes Bank, Federal Bank, Allahabad Bank, Kotak Bank, Bank of India and Axis Bank were down by 7-14% each.

Over 2.26 crore RNRL shares changed hands on the BSE followed by RPL (1.37 crore shares), ISPAT Industries (1.11 crore shares), Essar Oil (0.56 crore shares) and IFCI (0.51 crore shares).

Sensex slumps 951 points in second biggest single day fall

A setback in global markets rattled domestic bourses today as the Sensex posted its biggest single-day point fall. The fall on the bourses accentuated in late trade as BSE Sensex fell more than 1,000 points at the fag end of the trading session. Heavy selling was seen in banking stocks. ICICI Bank, HDFC, Hindalco Industries, Reliance Communications, Tata Steel and Reliance Energy were among the top losers from Sensex pack. The market breadth was weak.

The market tumbled today as the fire sale of ailing US bank Bear Stearns and the Federal Reserve's emergency cut in its discount rate intensified concerns that there could be more victims of the global credit crisis.

The 30-share BSE Sensex lost 951.03 points or 6.03% at 14,809.49. It hit a low of 14,739.72 in late trade, its lowest level since late August 2007. At day’s low Sensex fell 1,020.80 points in late trade.

The broader based S&P CNX Nifty was down 242.70 points or 5.11% at 4,503.10.

The fifth-largest US investment bank Bear Stearns said on Friday, 14 March 2008, its liquidity position had deteriorated significantly in the last 24 hours and a cash crunch forced it to turn to the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase for emergency funds. JPMorgan said on Sunday, 16 March 2008, it would buy Bear Stearns in an all-stock deal, and that the Fed would fund up to $30 billion of Bear Stearns' less liquid assets.

In a major development, the US Federal Reserve on Sunday, 16 March 2008, cut its discount rate to 3.25% from 3.5% and said that it was creating a facility to let primary dealers borrow at that rate.

"Global meltdown and sell-off by troubled foreign institutional investors in domestic markets, is playing havoc with sentiments of domestic investors. Fear of more disturbing news from global markets is weighing heavy on traders’ mind. Even long term domestic players like insurance firms and mutual funds are staying clear of the market", says D.D. Sharma, Senior Vice President, Research, Anand Rathi Financial Service. Going by valuations, the current fall provides a great buying opportunity for investors, he feels.

A fall in the dollar to a record low against the euro, sent spot gold and crude futures hurling towards record highs, deepening concerns of rising inflationary pressures throughout the Asian region.

US stock futures fell in Asian trade, pointing to a sharply lower Wall Street open later in the day, as global investors wonder if other financial institutions might need rescuing. S&P 500 futures were down 26.70 points, while Dow Jones industrial average futures were down 203 points.

BSE Clocked a turnover of Rs 5,701 crore today 17 March 2008 compared to a turnover of Rs 5,914.99 on Friday,14 March 2008.

Nifty March 2008 futures were at 4477, at a discount of 26.10 points as compared to spot closing of 4503.10.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 40,058.11 crore, which was lower than Rs 40,184.57 crore on Friday, 14 March 2008.

As per provisional data, FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 658.22 crore today. Local funds bought shares worth a net Rs 211.48 crore.

Consumer durable index was major loser among sectoral indices on BSE. It fell more than 10%. Fertiliser stocks plunged. All the BSE secoral indices were in red.

The market breadth was weak: On BSE 2,405 shares declined as compared to 282 shares that advanced. 43 shares remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 6.97 % to 6,124.35 and BSE Small-Cap index declined 6.9% to 7,522.23. Both these indices underperformed Sensex.

BSE Consumer Durables index (down 9.69% to 3,638.56), BSE Metal index (down 7.54% to 13,725.52), BSE Bankex (down 9.06% to 7,569.16), BSE Realty index (down 7.86% to 7,106.53) , BSE Capital Goods index (down 6.43% to 12,706.31) underperformed Sensex.

BSE PSU index (down 4.97% to 7,153.44), BSE IT index (down 3.2% to 3,297.71), BSE Oil & Gas index (down 5.34% to 9,801.86),BSE Power index (down 5.58% to 2,973.68), BSE HealthCare index (down 5.2% to 3,621.90), BSE Auto index (down 4.62% to 4,329.46), and BSE FMCG index (down 3.18% to 2,119.60) outperformed Sensex.

India’s largest private sector company in terms of market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries declined 6.08% to Rs 2,180.60..

Jaiprakash Associates (down 11.94% to Rs 208.05), HDFC (down 11.07% to Rs 2,225.55), Reliance Energy (down 8.13% to Rs 1,190.80), Hindalco Industries (down 9.2% to Rs 164.85), Tata Steel (down 7.93% to Rs 658.50), Grasim Industries (down 6.55% to Rs 2,670.85) and Larsen & Toubro (down 7.03% to Rs 2,703.50), were major losers from Sensex pack.

Banking stocks declined further in late trade. India’s largest commercial bank by net profit State Bank of India declined 4.72% to Rs 1,633.40. ICICI Bank (down 13.76% to Rs 757.40), HDFC Bank (down 5.89% to Rs 1,238.50) edged lower.

Consumer durables stocks extended losses. Titan Industries (down 13.03% to Rs 930.05), Rajesh Exports (down 15.58% to Rs 79.65), Videocon Industries (down 7.46% to Rs 279.30) and Blue Star (down 10.26% to Rs 380.50) edged lower.

India's biggest power-equipment maker by sales Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) declined 4.41% to Rs 1,796.05. As per reports, the company will acquire Vizag-based Bharat Heavy Plates and Vessels by the first half of 2008/09.

India’s largest telecom services provider by sales Reliance Communications fell 6.87% to Rs 482.75. It added 1.61 million mobile subscribers in February 2008. The firm had 42.6 million mobile subscribers at the end of January 2008.

Reliance Power declined 6.45% to Rs 315.70. It has reportedly struck a deal to buy out a coal mine in Indonesia. The valuation of the coal mine, based on its reserves, is estimated to be around Rs 20,000 crore.

Fertiliser stocks slumped. National Fertiliser (down 13.45% to Rs 38.60), Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilisers (down 10% to Rs 18.20), Nagarjuna Chemicals & Fertilisers (down 7.79% to Rs 36.10), Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals (down 7.23% to Rs 48.75), Coromandel Fertilisers (down 7.81% to Rs 103.30), Deepak Fertilisers (down 12.85% to Rs 92.60) edged lower.

Cairn India declined 6.61% to Rs 213.30. The company said today, 17 March 2008 before market hours its board will meet on 17 March 2008 to consider a preferential issue of equity shares.

Reliance Natural Resources clocked the highest volume of 2.26 crore shares on BSE. Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (1.54 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (1.37 crore shares), V-Guard Industries (1.3 crore shares) and Ispat Industries (1.11 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Reliance Industries clocked highest turnover of Rs 274.22 crore on BSE. GSS America Infotech (Rs 237.04 crore), Reliance Natural Resources (Rs 232.49 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 215.46 crore ) and Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals (Rs 206.98 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

European markets which opened after Indian markets were weak. France’s CAC, Germany’s DAX and UK’s FTSE 100 were down between 2.23% to 3.29%.

In Asia, key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were down by between 1.61% to 5.18%.

The news about Bear Stearns hit US stocks hard on Friday, 14 March 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 194.65 points, or 1.60% to end at 11,951.09. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index shed 27.34 points, or 2.08%, to 1,288.14. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 51.12 points, or 2.26%, to 2,212.49.

A crucial meeting of the UPA-Left committee on the Indo-US nuclear deal will be held in New Delhi today. As per media reports, the government is expected to hand over the Left leaders copies of the draft India-specific safeguards agreement it has reached with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Government is also likely to brief them on the over three-month long negotiations it held with the IAEA on the safeguards agreement, reports suggest.

The meeting comes in the backdrop of major Left parties asserting that they would withdraw support to the Congress-led government if it went ahead with the nuclear deal with the US.

A torrent of bad news has spooked bourses in the past few days with buyers deserting the market. Adding to the woes of domestic bourses already hit by tumbling global markets were earnings downgrade recently by brokerages of ICICI Bank, India’s biggest private sector bank in terms of net profit, and Larsen & Toubro, India’s biggest engineering and construction firm in terms of order book; lower-than-expected industrial production data for January 2008; and a surge in inflation.

The hike in short-term capital gains tax and alteration of tax treatment of the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) in Union Budget 2008-09 announced on 29 February 2008 has earlier dented sentiment. Buyers have stayed away from the bourses on continued uncertainty about the extent and duration of the credit crisis caused by the defaults in the US sub-prime mortgage market.

US Markets will weigh in

The market may remain cautious amid weakness in several Asian indices and overnight fall in the US markets. Major Asian indices like Nikkei, Hang Seng, Kospi and Jakarta are trading with steep losses in morning trades and may drag down the market in early trades. On the technical front, the Nifty in the short term could test 4855 on the upside and has a support in the 4700-4665 range. The Sensex may face resistance at 15900 and could test lower levels at 15550.
US indices eased on Friday amid renewed inflation concerns. While the Dow Jones, which had closed above 12000 on Thursday, dropped 195 points at 11951, the Nasdaq shed 51 points to close at 2212.
Barring, Patni Computers, rest of the Indian ADRs ended in the red. MTNL was the biggest loser and tumbled 8% while ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Wipro dropped over 3% each. Other laggards like Infosys, Satyam, Dr Reddy's, Tata Motors, Rediff and VSNL were down over 1% each. However, Patni Computers rose nearly 2.69%.
Crude oil prices moved down, with the Nymex light crude oil sliding by 12 cents to close at $110.21 a barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold gained $6.20 to settle at $1000 an ounce.

Market Outlook - March 17 2008

Market Outlook - March 17 2008

Market to plunge on US woes

The market is expected to edge lower after news of an emergency rescue of the fifth-largest US investment bank Bear Stearns orchestrated by the Federal Reserve revived fears about a deepening global credit crunch, triggering a massive sell-off in US stocks on Friday, 14 March 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 194.65 points, or 1.60% to end at 11,951.09. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index shed 27.34 points, or 2.08%, to 1,288.14. The Nasdaq Composite Index slipped 51.12 points, or 2.26%, to 2,212.49.

The fifth-largest US investment bank Bear Stearns said on Friday, 14 March 2008, its liquidity position had deteriorated significantly in the last 24 hours and a cash crunch forced it to turn to the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase for emergency funds.

The news about Bear Stearns spooked stocks across Asia today. The key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan were down by between 1.75% to 4.39%.

As per provisional data, FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 358 crore on Friday, 14 March 2008. Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 100.33 crore.

FIIs bought index futures worth Rs 518.12 crore and bought index options worth Rs 108.26 crore on Friday. They sold individual stock futures to the tune of Rs 78.95 crore. They bought individual stock options to the tune of Rs 60.24 crore.

A torrent of bad news spooked bourses as the Sensex hit a 6-month low on 13 March 2008, with buyers deserting the market. Adding to the woes of domestic bourses already hit by tumbling global markets were earnings downgrade recently by brokerages of ICICI Bank, India’s biggest private sector bank in terms of net profit, and Larsen & Toubro, India’s biggest engineering and construction firm in terms of order book; lower-than-expected industrial production data for January 2008; and a surge in inflation.

The hike in short-term capital gains tax and alteration of tax treatment of the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) in Union Budget 2008-09 announced on 29 February 2008 has earlier dented sentiment. Buyers have stayed away from the bourses on continued uncertainty about the extent and duration of the credit crisis caused by the defaults in the US sub-prime mortgage market.

Morning Call - March 17 2008

Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Nifty at a support of 4623 ,4510 and 4445 with resis at 4825 and 4910

Cash: Buy CIPLA above 208 with a TGT of 216 and a SL of 204.50

Sell Reliance below 2321 with a TGT of 2230 and a SL of 2351

F&O: Sell IOC below 477 with a TGT of 460 and a SL of 482

Sell IDFC below 155 with a TGT of 147 and a SL of 159

Out House :

Markets at a support of 15115 & 14786 and resistance at 15591 & 15786 levels .

Buy : Ongc

Buy : RPL at dips

Buy : RIL at dips

Buy : HLL & ITC

Buy : LT at dips

Buy : Nalco & MTNL at dips

Dark Horse : Orchid , Kohinoor , RIL , LT , ITC & HLL

Grey Market Premium - Titagarh Wagons

Gammon Infra 167 to 200 3 to 5

Sita Shree Food Products 27 to 30 4 to 6

Titagarh Wagons Ltd. 540 to 610 40 to 45

Kiri Dyes & Chemicals 125 to 150 12 to 15

US Market ends week on a sour note

Credit and liquidity issues ruled the US Market for the week that ended on Friday, 14 March, 2008. It was a volatile week of trading. There were no major earnings reports and only a handful of economic releases. In the end, the stock market posted a slight loss. News that a major investment bank needed a bailout caused the market to lose enthusiasm.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 57 points for the week. Tech - heavy Nasdaq was practically unchanged. S&P 500 lost 6 points.

On Monday, 10 March, there was a spate of other pessimistic news in the finance sector. Reports indicated that Lehman Brothers will be laying off 5% of its workforce. Also, there were plenty of negative rumors that a major Wall Street firm was facing liquidity issues. In addition, Fitch Ratings took negative ratings action on eight banks, including Washington Mutual. The Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a loss of 153 points at 11,740.

The next day, on Tuesday, 11 March, the Dow Jones industrial Average ended the day with a huge gain of 417 points at 12,157. Stocks posted their largest one day percent gain since 2003 on news of a coordinated central bank effort to improve liquidity.

The Federal Reserve announced that it was taking coordinated steps with other central banks to boost liquidity in financial markets. Also, it announced that as per its Term Securities Lending Facility (TSFL), the Fed will lend up to $200 billion of Treasury Securities to primary dealers secured for a term of 28 days, rather than overnight. The borrowers will be able to pledge a variety of collateral ranging from federal agency debt to private AAA rated residential mortgage backed securities.

However, the week ended on a sour note, after the stock market got clipped on news that Bear Stearns will receive financing as needed from JPMorgan Chase and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The emergency funding agreement gave Bear a secured loan facility for an initial period of up to 28 days. But Bear would not have been able to utilize the Fed’s new plan, as the auctions do not start until March 27. Dow gave up almost 200 points on Friday, 14 March.

Economic data were mixed during the week although the reports did not have much of an impact on stocks due to credit concerns taking center stage. February retail sales fell 0.6%, which was short of the expected 0.2% rise. On a bright note, an inflation reading was better than expected. February Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI excluding food & energy came in flat. This was less than the expected rises of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.

Among other major events during the week, gold rose 2.6% and hit an all-time non-inflation adjusted intraday high of $1009.00 per ounce. Crude oil rose 4.7% and hit an all-time intraday high of $111.00 per barrel. Crude’s advance occurred even though the government’s weekly energy report showed stockpiles increased by a much larger than expected amount.

Fed up of Bear!

We can only appreciate the miracle of a sunrise if we have waited in the darkness.

The bulls are waiting in the darkness and praying for a miracle. But the nightmare is likely to continue. Ahead of its scheduled meeting on Tuesday, the Fed cut discount rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% in a bid to ease the current turmoil in credit markets. The announcement coincided with its backing of JP Morgan's purchase of the embattled Wall Street firm Bear Stearns (for $2 per share) which was on the verge of going under. The twin moves are aimed at averting a major fallout from the collapse of Bear Stearns.

Back home, the bulls are likely to be on strike for considerably longer period of time. A gap-down opening is a given. Don’t buy hoping for a miracle immediately. If you have the money (not borrowed) and the patience we need not tell you to buy.

It now remains to be seen if the latest set of Fed moves leads to any improvement in investor sentiment across global markets. Asian markets are already deep in the red, with the Nikkei in Tokyo and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong down well over 4%. The dollar has taken a fresh beating against the yen, and has broken below the 96 mark. Gold is trading above the $1,000 an ounce and crude oil is at around $111 per barrel.

This is perhaps the worst crisis to hit the stock markets since the busting of the tech bubble at the turn of the century. May be it is even worse than that. Who knows how much more pain the bulls will have to endure before there is any sign of reversal.

The local situation has also worsened with the recent economic data not being very encouraging. The Indian economy, which was supposed to be insulated from the global meltdown, is headed for a sharp correction. Don't be surprise, if the UPA Government and the RBI too come out with their own set of measures to prevent a major slowdown. But in any case, the mood is so pessimistic and somber, just nobody is interested in buying at this time, as the bloodbath is most likely to continue for some more time.

The Fed on Sunday slashed its discount rate - the rate on direct loans to commercial banks - by quarter percentage point to 3.25% effective immediately, and created another lending facility for big investment banks to secure short-term loans. The new lending facility will be available to big Wall Street firms on Monday. The program would operate for at least six months, and would offer loans for as long as 90 days, rather than 30 days under the regular discount window.

"These steps will provide financial institutions with greater assurance of access to funds," Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told reporters in a brief conference call Sunday evening. The Fed also approved the financing of JPMorgan Chase's acquisition of Bear Stearns, including support for as much as $30bn of the beleaguered Wall Street securities firm's assets.

JPMorgan Chase said on Sunday that it would acquire Bear Stearns amid mounting fears that the failure of the troubled Wall Street firm could sent chills across the already shaky global financial markets. JP Morgan will acquire Bear Stearns for $236mn or at about $2 a share compared with $30 at the close on March 14.

Bear Stearns was on the brink of financial collapse on Friday when JP Morgan and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said they would provide the brokerage a short-term loan. The New York-based firm's short-term creditors refused to lend it any more money and simultaneously demanded repayment of outstanding debt.

US shares nose dived on Friday after JP Morgan and NY Federal Reserve provided emergency funding to Bear Stearns to keep it going, heightening concerns that the problems in credit markets were spreading like wildfire.

The news sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 300 points before moving back up. The blue-chip index closed down 194.65 points, or 1.6%, at 11,951.09, with 29 of its 30 components posting losses.

The S&P 500 index dropped 27.34 points, or 2.1%, to close at 1,288.14, while the Nasdaq Composite index slid 51.12 points, or 2.3%, to end at 2,212.49.

Shares of Bear Stearns plummeted 47%, dragging the entire financial sector with it, and putting a big question mark on the brokerage's survival.

Among the other financials, Citigroup was down 6.1%, JP Morgan fell 4.1% and American Express declined 4%. Boeing proved the sole Dow component chalking up gains, up 2.8% after its upgrade to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.

The Dow gained 0.5% on the week, thanks to a 417-point rally on Tuesday, its best day in five and a half years. The broader S&P 500 ended the week with 0.4% gain. The Nasdaq ended the week unchanged.

The surprise bailout of Bear Stearns overshadowed a benign inflation report, which sparked an early rally in stocks amid optimism that the Federal Reserve will get more headroom to cut interest rates.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) held steady in February, as against expectations of an increase. The so-called core CPI, which excludes the often volatile food and energy prices, also remained unchanged from January levels.

Stocks in Europe ended another volatile session in the red on Friday. After registering decent gains in the wake of benign US inflation data, the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index took a quick turn for the worst. It finished down 1% at 304.15.

Banks got pounded heavily, with Barclays and UBS leading the declines. Barclays share lost 3.9% and UBS shares dropped 7.4%. The German DAX 30 fell 0.8% to 6,451.90, the UK's FTSE 100 closed down 1.1% at 5,631.70 and the French CAC-40 shed 0.8% to 4,592.15.

In the emerging markets, the Bovespa in Brazil was down 0.5% at 61,990 while the IPC index in Mexico slid 2.2% to 29,048. The RTS index in Russia was up 0.25% at 2064 and the ISE National-30 index in Turkey gained 0.4% to 5.,040.

Can bulls extend momentum?

Finally, it was a fine Friday; as bulls managed to pull off a smart come back on the bourses. Markets managed to end with smart gains, despite weak cues from the Asian markets and a rise in India’s Inflation rate. Key indices managed to sustain its up run on back of gains in the index heavyweights like RIL, ICICI Bank, L&T and Infosys.

The Auto stocks which were losing ground also bounced back in late afternoon trades. The Pharma stocks also recorded healthy gains. On the broader indices, the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap stocks were back in demand.

The BSE benchmark Sensex finally gained 403 points ending at 15,760 and the Nifty index added 122 points ending at 4,745.

Overall about 1,206 stocks advanced; 1,463 stocks declined while 61 stocks remained unchanged. Among the Nifty-30 stocks 25 stocks advanced while only 5 stocks declined.

JP Associates surged by over 5% to Rs230 on its debut on the benchmark Sensex on replacing Bajaj Auto Ltd., the nation's second largest maker of motorcycles. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs234 and a low of Rs220 and recorded volumes of over 71,00,000 shares on NSE.

RIL gained by 3.5% to Rs2322 after reports stated that the company would set up a SPV for setting up petrochemical complexes abroad along with GAIL. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2339 and a low of Rs2230 and recorded volumes of over 27,00,000 shares on NSE.

Recently listed GSS America continued its momentum; the scrip further rallied by over 7% to Rs613 on back of huge volumes. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs625 and a low of Rs555 and recorded volumes of over 22,00,000 shares on NSE.

Jindal Stainless advanced by 1.2% to Rs130 following reports that the company would float a subsidiary in India and invest up to Rs5bn in the next few years. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs133 and a low of Rs128 and recorded volumes of over 91,000 shares on NSE.

Lanco Infra gained by half a percent to Rs383 after reports stated that the company would raise profitability through merchant power business. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs398 and a low of Rs367 and recorded volumes of over 6,00,000 shares on NSE.

Gujarat Alkalies gained by 2.2% to Rs141 as reports stated that the company is in talks with a UAE-based business group for setting up a caustic soda manufacturing facility in the UAE. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs143 and a low of Rs128 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on NSE.

Corporate Front Page

Jindal Stainless plans Rs60bn expansion; targets 2.5mn ton capacity by 2012.(BS)
Unilever expects India, other emerging markets to contribute to 50% of turnover by 2010.(FE)
Air Deccan gets in-principle approval to fly abroad from August of this year.(BL)
BSNL to invite bids for 8mn digital subscriber lines. (ET)
Tata group and South Africa based Sasol get approval for India’s first coal to liquid project worth US$8bn.(FE)
Cummins India to invest Rs8.5bn in Maharashtra to manufacture truck and bus engines, diesel and gas gensets and diesel engines.(BS)
Indiabulls Real Estate and Unitech put on hold their plans for IPOs of their respective REITs in Singapore due to volatile markets.(FE)
Reliance Power to buy out a coal mine in Indonesia for Rs10bn. (ET)
BHEL would acquire Vizag based Bharat Heavy Plates and Vessels by the first half of 2008-09.(FE)
BSNL, Tata Teleservices may get DoT approval for launching Blackberry services.(BL)
ITC to expand its writing instruments division; targets Rs10bn in revenues in three years.(BL)
China Huaneng has outbid Reliance Energy and GMR group by placing highest bid of US$3.1bn for Tuas Power.(ET)
Rajasthan government opposes shifting delivery point of Cairn-ONGC crude oil from wellhead to the Gujarat coast.(BS)
GoAir to expand its fleet from six to 11 aircraft in the next 12 months; (ET)
Glenmark Pharma is close to acquiring a front-end sales firm in US. (DNA)
Jet Airways is expected to close talks with Indian and foreign PE firms and financial institutions for offloading up to 10% of the promoters stake. (DNA)
AT&T eyes stake in Videocon subsidiary Datacom which has been issued mobile licenses.(FE)
Omaxe to start a high-end project with luxury apartments and penthouses in Noida; to invest Rs1.8bn.(DNA)
RPG Group’s Spencer Retail to invest Rs30bn across the country in 2008-09. (TOI)
Promethean India picks up a minority stake in Oberoi Group promoted hotel chain EIH (ET)
Quippo Oil, promoted by Srei Infrastructure Finance, plans to invest US$600mn over next two years on onshore rigs, offshore supply vessels and offshore pipeline-laying barges.(BS)
Jindal Stainless plans to set up an independent power project and a foray into the logistics sector.(DNA)
Tata Motors close to convincing Ford to supply Jaguar and Land Rover engines at a pre-agreed price under a long term contract. (ET)
Tata group’s Infiniti Retail plans to invest Rs8bn on expansions.(BS)
Vishal Retail plans to enter into the real estate business.(DNA)

Economic Front Page

About two-thirds of the Rs600bn farm loan waiver would be reimbursed to lending institutions in cash by August 2009.(BL)
Finance minister announces a fiscal deficit of 3.66% of GDP for FY08 by incorporating off budget liabilities.(BS)
Non-food credit increased by Rs400bn to touch Rs22tn for the fortnight ended February 29th.(BL)
PSU oil companies to invest Rs2.4tn in oil and gas exploration, fuel retailing, refineries and petrochemicals during the 11th Plan period.(BS)
The steel minister is planning to ask the finance ministry remove import duties on steel and impose duty on its exports. (ET)
Government says three new UMPPs, with investments of Rs160bn, could be set up in Orissa in addition to nine UMPPs already proposed across the country.(BL)
Entertainment and Media industry grew by 17% to reach Rs500bn in 2007.(Mint)
RBI plans to overhaul norms for all foreign currency derivatives.(BS)
TRAI to submit its recommendations on number portability by first week of April.(BL)
Oil and Gas exploration may get costlier after government clarifies on ship rental tax.(Mint)
Government to release Rs250bn in cash to banks by July 2008. (ET)
Finance Ministry directs other ministries and government departments to deposit at least 60% of the idle funds under their control with PSU banks.(ET)
Government approves 18 FDI proposals worth Rs 16bn.(BL)
International claims of Indian banks rise by 41% as of June 2007 on account of higher exposure to guarantees, derivatives and credit commitments.(BS)
Government to rationalize tax on DTH, cable firms.(BS)
Government allows mining companies to trade mineral licenses freely.(ET)

Power Finance Corporation

Power Finance Corporation

Asian Markets Update - plunge across

Nikkei is down 500 points (4%)

Hang Seng is down over 1000 points (4.5%)

Straits Times is down 2.5%

Tale of Bear Stearns

52 Week High: $159.36

March 13 2008 - $57

March 14 2008 Close - 30.00 -27.00 (-47.37%)

March 16 2008 - JP Morgan buys Bear Stearns for $2

Stocks you can buy this week

Educomp Solutions
Research: CLSA
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 3,628

CLSA has assigned a ‘Buy’ Rating to Educomp Solutions. Educomp’s plays are India-centric . Its multimedia-in-schools offering now reaches more than 650 private schools and its adoption is accelerating. K-12 school management, a new segment, is set to reach 100 schools over the next three years (150 in four years). IT in public schools, although a fairly narrow-margin business (25-30 % EBITDA versus 60% in other areas ), augments this portfolio. Several other niche offerings are centred around these businesses.

These offerings include teacher training, online tutoring, e-learning and pre-schools . In many segments, the company enjoys a 12-24-month lead over new entrants. Educomp seems expensive, but its earnings are set to grow seven-fold over FY08-11 and its stock price needs to be seen in this context.

CLSA’s target price is based on a discounted cash flow model that assumes a 13% weighted-average cost of capital and 5% terminal growth. Non-linear growth, potential operating leverage as sales and product development expenses even out, and the potential to expand into adjacent spaces (such as higher education ) may further boost the stock.

Tata Teleservices
Research: HSBC
Rating: Underweight
CMP: Rs 31

HSBC initiates coverage on Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra), or TTML, with an ‘underweight’ Rating and a target price of Rs 30, assuming GSM spectrum is obtained by late FY09E and GSM is rolled out by mid-FY 10E. TTML, which represents a small portion of Tata’s broader national wireless footprint, operates in Maharashtra.

The company runs a CDMA network , but also has regulatory approval to operate GSM services. However , the timetable for the transition to GSM is unclear and the company has not yet been allocated any GSM spectrum. De-Rating on the stock continues on the back of delays over the switch to GSM. HSBC believes this is an event-driven story, rather than one based on fundamentals.

The alliance, which is still to be approved by the regulator, can represent an effective stop-gap arrangement to maximise yield on CDMA assets, but faces challenges, given the uncertain outlook for CDMA in India. The Tata group appears to be stuck when it comes to telecom. It has invested enough to establish a national footprint across multiple services, but is unwilling to surrender control to a strategic investor.

Research: Motilal Oswal
Rating: Neutral
CMP: Rs 1,879

Motilal Oswal maintains a ‘neutral’ Rating on Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL). Since FY06, BHEL has witnessed significant traction in order intake. In FY08, Motilal Oswal expects an order intake of 15,514 mw, vs 9,904 mw in FY07 and 3,473 mw in FY06. As orders pending award under the 11th Plan stand at just 12,359 mw, a large part of the order award for FY09 is contingent on 12th Plan projects (FY13-17 ).

BHEL’s revenues may witness a CAGR of 34% over FY08-10 , driven by a surge in order intake to Rs 47,000 crore in FY08 (up from Rs 18,900 crore in FY06; CAGR of 57.5%). The report ‘Crash Programme for Power Generation’ suggests incremental capacity addition of 30,000 mw by NTPC and state electricity boards (SEBs) if private sector projects fail to take off. In that case, BHEL may emerge as the largest beneficiary, given its ~85% share of central and state government projects.

Both BHEL and NTPC have entered into JVs with SEBs for 4,240 mw of generation capacity. Motilal Oswal expects BHEL to report a net profit of Rs 2,950 crore in FY08 (up 22% y-o-y ), Rs 4,300 crore in FY09 (up 45.9% y-o-y ) and Rs 5,760 crore in FY10 (up 34% yo-y ). At the current market price, the stock trades at 33.5x FY08E EPS of Rs 60.2, 23x FY09E EPS of Rs 87.8, and 17.1x FY10E EPS of Rs 117.7.

State Bank of India
Research: Indiabulls
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 1,714

Indiabulls upgrades its Rating on SBI from ‘hold’ to ‘Buy’ because the bank’s aggregate business registered an increase of 25.9% y-o-y , led by increase in advances and deposits. SBI’s net interest margin is high at 3.01%.

Further, its CASA ratio is 41.05% and is set to rise further as SBI plans to enhance its geographical spread over the next few years. The bank has been displaying a positive trend in non-interest income. From a negative growth rate last year, there has been a 35.2% y-o-y increase in SBI’s other income for the first nine months of FY08.

Huge shareholder value may be unlocked following listing of SBI’s non-banking businesses and merger with associate banks. The merger with State Bank of Saurashtra has already been approved by both entities. This is may pave the way for merger with other associate banks. Subsidiaries are valued at P/B multiples, the new business achieved profit (NBAP) multiple and percentage of AUM, depending on the business.

IT Sector Update

IT Sector Update

Latest Business Videos on IT, Banks - updated now!

Crude ends higher for the week

Crude prices ended higher for the week that ended on Friday, 14 March, 2008. Prices ended higher by $5.06 (4.8%) at $110.21/barrel. Price struck new highs almost every day of the week. Only, on the last day of the week, ie Friday, 14 March, crude price ended marginally down. From, last week’s closing of $105/barrel, price reached a high of $112/barrel during the week.

Dropping dollar against euro pushed crude prices also higher prompting traders to invest in commodities against a hedge against inflation. Prices rose despite the EIA reporting a surprising increase in weekly crude inventory for week ending on Friday, 7 March, 2008.

Crude prices, denominated in dollars, tend to rise when the greenback falls, as a weaker U.S. currency makes crude less expensive to buyers holding other currencies. It also lowers oil producers' dollar revenue and forces them to raise prices.

On last Wednesday, EIA reported that U.S. crude inventories rose 6.2 million barrels to 311.6 million barrels in the week ended 7 March. U.S. gasoline supplies rose by 1.7 million barrels in the latest week, while distillate stocks fell by 1.2 million barrels.

EIA also reported that U.S. refineries operated at 85% of their operable capacity last week, down from the previous week's 85.9%. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 10.5 million barrels a day last week, up 1.1 million barrels a day from the previous week.

On Friday, crude-oil futures dropped for the first time in five sessions to close above $110 a barrel, as a 16-year low consumer sentiment index triggered traders to take profit from record high oil prices. Prices touched a high of $112.75 during intra day trading. But then, ultimately prices ended lower by 12 cents at $110.21.

Crude prices had gained more than $10 (11%) in February. On a yearly basis, prices have gained 16% in FY 2008.

The International Energy Agency, cut its forecast for 2008 global oil demand for a second month as record prices curbed consumption in some parts of the world. The agency reduced its forecast by 80,000 barrels a day to 87.54 million barrels a day, leaving annual demand growth at 2%.

OPEC left production targets unchanged on its 5 March meeting at Vienna, giving 12 of its 13 members a combined quota of 29.67 million barrels a day.

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Gold touches new highs

Gold touches a new high of $1009 during intra day trading

Precious metals created another new record on Friday, 14 March, 2008 after gold touched the $1009/ounce mark for the first ever time in history. Also a spate of weak news in the financial sector oil prices staying at higher levels propelled this rally. Higher oil prices boost the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver prices also rose substantially on Friday.

Comex Gold for April delivery rose $5.7 (0.5%) to close at $999.5 ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the day, prices touched a high of $1009/ounce but then the metal gave up some of its gains later in the session. This year, gold prices have gained 19% till date. In January, prices gained 11%, the highest monthly gain since April 2006. For February, it gained 6%.

For the week, gold prices gained $25.3 (2.6%).

Comex Silver futures for May delivery rose 24 cents (1.2%) to $20.66 an ounce. Silver has gained 34% in 2008. The metal had climbed 16% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years. In January this year itself, prices climbed 14%. In February, it gained another 15%.

Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices. On the other hand strong dollar reduces the appeal of the metal as alternate source of investment.

In the energy market on Friday, crude oil rose above $112 and touched $112.75 but ultimately ended lower for the day. Prices closed below $110/barrel on Friday.

In the currency market on Friday, the dollar also recovered from all-time lows against the euro and the Swiss franc. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.02% at 72.07.

The dollar has been dampened since last year, more since start of FY 2008 after interest rates were cut twice in January, 2008. Gold, as a dollar-denominated commodity, suffers from dollar strength. On the contrary, gold prices rise with falling dollar as inflationary concerns boosts the metal's appeal as an inflation hedge.

The Fed has cut the federal funds rate to 3% this year from 5.25% in mid-September, 2007. January 2008 itself saw two rate cuts in a gap of ten days.

Gold witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. The Fed reduced federal funds rate three times in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for April delivery closed higher by Rs 59 (0.45%) at Rs 13,035 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 13,050 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 12,995 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for May delivery closed Rs 174 (0.65%) higher at Rs 26,748/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 26,649/kg and went to a high of Rs 26,769/Kg during the day’s trading.

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