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Saturday, May 26, 2007

Picks for the Week

Glenmark - Support @ 661-624 Resistance 725-751, BUY

HLL - Support @ 195-187 Resistance at 208-213, BUY

Grindwell Norton, Support @ 133-120, Resistance at 153-162, BUY

ITC - Support @ 163-160, Resistance 171-176, BUY

SAIL - Support @ 133-120, Resistance at 153-162, BUY

Satyam - Support @ 451-429, Resistance @ 484-496, BUY

BUY at your own risk

CII President Presentation - Building People, Building India

CII President Presentation - Building People, Building India

Market Update & Trading Call

The Nifty staged one of the smartest recoveries in recent times to close the day and the week on a positive note. The opening losses were brushed aside and the index closed 100 points away from the intra-day low at 4141 levels. The market left bears running for cover as late afternoon short covering saw the Nifty gaining 40 points in the last half hour. The weekly positive close along with a key reversal bullish engulfing pattern on the Nifty daily charts gives an upper hand to bulls. The market has taken support at 20-DMA and there is upside till 4320 as is evident from the charts. Our short-term bias turns positive with reversal at 4180. Intra-day charts show reversal signals as the market has retraced 61% of the recent fall and the 4235 level would
be the key. The momentum indicators have triggered buy readings and the follow-up is crucial. An upside opening gap would be ideal for Monday. The 4180 level would
provide strong supports from hereon.

Information technology stocks have moved up with a bang. Infosys should target Rs2,000-2,020 and Satyam should aim for Rs490. Satyam has good support at Rs460. RCOM has moved past Rs500 and looks set to retest Rs515.

United Phosphorus–Buy
CMP: Rs294.0
Buy United Phosphorus at the current market price of Rs294
with a stop loss of Rs281.4 for a target of Rs324.

Commodities Recommendation

Buy MCX Zinc (June) around 152 with SL of 149.

Gold Sell Gold below $659 and Buy if prices sustains above $670.

Silver Sell Silver below $12.83 and Buy if prices sustains above $13.2

Copper Buy MCX Copper (June) above 303 with SL of 293.

Nickel Sell MCX Nickel (June) on rallies around 2036 with SL of 2104

Zinc Buy MCX Zinc (June) around 152 with SL of 149.

Crude Oil Buy MCX crude oil (June) around 2613 SL 2579

Suzlon upgraded to NEUTRAL and more..

Merrill Lynch has put a BUY on Suzlon Energy as they feel that risk of bidding war over RE power has been alleviated. They have a target of 1500

Macquarie upgrades ICICI Bank to buy with a 12 month target of 1103

Macquarie also upgrades HDFC to buy with a 12 month target of 2060

Macquarie however put a underperfomer on SBI with a target of 1192

Macquarie says BUY Kotak Mahindra with a 12 month target of 646

Who's Buying & Selling

FIIs are overweight on Banks in a big way. They bought into Indiabulls & ICICI Bank.

Energy was sold as they sold Reliance and ONGC. BHEL was heavily sold as well.

Mutual funds were selling Banks - SBI and ICICI Bank in a big way

Mutual funds were buying ONGC, Reliance, TCS, Maruti. They also sold ITC, Hindalco, Tech Mahindra, Hero Honda and HDFC Bank

In Midcaps,FIIS bought stocks like Jaiprakash Associates, Aditya Birla Nuvo, Deccan Chronicle, Yes bank, GE Shipping, IVRCL, Videocon and Indian Hotels amongst others. FIIs were selling the smaller financial names like IDFC, IDBI, Centurion Bank, Fed Bank. Other stocks where they cut exposure were IPCL, Cummins, Punj Lloyd, Biocon, Moser Baer and India Cements.

GSM Subscriber Update

Bharti: The market leader Bharti registered a growth of 3% MoM (58.5% YoY) with a net addition of 1.75 mn (as against 1.70 mn in March 2007), gaining subscribers from the relatively less competitive 'C' circles of Assam (11.6%), North East (11.7%) and West Bengal (10.0%).

Reliance: Reliance, the other national player, registered no change in net additions at 4.37 mn. We believe Reliance may not have reported its numbers yet and that COAI would therefore have been forced to carry forward the same from March 2007.

Idea: Idea registered a strong percentage increase of 49.1% (MoM) to 0.55 mn particularly from Himachal Pradesh (26.8% MoM), Uttar Pradesh (E) (12.6%) and Rajasthan (11.6%). Given Idea's plans of further enhancing its presence across India, the positive trend in incremental subscriber base will play a critical role in determining its success.

BPL: BPL's net subscriber addition has been a poor 6,232 in absolute terms. It is in the sell-out phase, with only one remaining circle - Mumbai. Hence, it is most unlikely that BPL will invest more into the business, leading to continued poor subscriber additions.

Few thoughts...

As we think about what we should do next. The following are the thoughts

1. DP (that's what we like to call this site as) to become a market insight/analysis site which would have guest writers - it could be you writing about what you think about the market. If you are interested please drop in a mail at

2. DP will provide market information as and when necessary and it may not necessarily include reports unless its hosted on some other site or location. We have had couple of friends telling us that they would host the reports, we are still considering this. As we said earlier, its more a time factor, we will concentrate more on quality than quantity.

3. DP to host small time analysts post their reports for their amazing stock picking abilities which you don't see in those people who sit in air-conditioned offices. These analysts are the real geniuses. We had in fact publicly asked for those analysts to send their reports. You will probably start seeing some of these very soon. For others, drop in a mail, you are likely to get featured if you are really good and believe me there is a audience in this site for that. This could be trial based services too. So, if you want to promote your newsletter, drop in a mail.

4. We might open up a forum soon. Please join the Deadpresidents Group and wait for more details.

More ideas may come up as we think along. Leave your thoughts in the comments.

As one of my friends said, making the market efficient by disseminating information isn't possible, the smart guys continue to make money while the 'retail investors' get sucked in. Markets are supposed to irrational and thats the truth.

It's been a bull market over 3 years now and that is how we are making money - the fun begins when we start losing. Lets make the market efficient in a different way.

We thank each and everyone of you for the outpour. Its just been amazing to believe. We LOVE YOU too and thanks for all the wishes!

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Thanks Guys!