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Friday, August 07, 2009

NHPC IPO Review Analysis


NHPC IPO Review Analysis

NHPC IPO Note - Recommendation


NHPC IPO Note - Recommendation

NHPC IPO Recommendation


NHPC IPO Recommendation

NHPC IPO


NHPC IPO

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Aug 7 2009


Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
7/8/2009 532975 AISHWARYA TE BHASKAR REDDY KATPALLI S 60000 21.73
7/8/2009 532995 AVON CORP S V ENTERPRISES B 680646 11.35
7/8/2009 532995 AVON CORP BASMATI SECURITIES PVT LTD S 514924 11.03
7/8/2009 532995 AVON CORP S V ENTERPRISES S 680646 11.83
7/8/2009 532916 BARAK VALL DB (INTL) OWN TRADING B 216078 36.99
7/8/2009 532916 BARAK VALL DB (INTL) OWN TRADING S 216078 37.23
7/8/2009 532916 BARAK VALL AJAY GUPTA S 111000 34.94
7/8/2009 590061 BRUSHMAN IND PANTHEON INVESTMENT AND HOLDINGS B 102000 13.04
7/8/2009 590061 BRUSHMAN IND PANTHEON INVESTMENT AND HOLDINGS S 64600 13.04
7/8/2009 531270 DAZZEL CONFI NIREN MEHTA HUF B 80000 3.61
7/8/2009 531270 DAZZEL CONFI REKHA BHANDARI S 82000 3.61
7/8/2009 532809 FSL GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD. B 2144216 28.64
7/8/2009 532809 FSL GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD. S 2144216 28.66
7/8/2009 508918 GREYCELLS EN EVERGREEN RESOURCES PVT LTD B 83000 130.00
7/8/2009 508918 GREYCELLS EN INDIA MAX INVESTMENT FUND LTD S 83000 130.00
7/8/2009 530255 KAY POW PAP GIRRAJ PRASAD GUPTA S 100000 6.57
7/8/2009 531731 KUVAM INTL KAMLESH GUPTA S 27600 16.92
7/8/2009 512167 MATRA REALT JOHN VAS B 258000 8.65
7/8/2009 512167 MATRA REALT CRESTA FUND LTD S 125000 8.65
7/8/2009 512167 MATRA REALT CRESTA FUND LTD. S 125000 8.65
7/8/2009 532944 ONMOBILE Deutsche Securities Mauritius Limited S 500000 510.01
7/8/2009 512626 ORBIT EXPORT PANKAJ SHAYAMSUNDER SETH B 180000 13.10
7/8/2009 512626 ORBIT EXPORT ANISHA PANKAJ SETH B 180000 13.10
7/8/2009 512626 ORBIT EXPORT SHUBHKAM VENTURES (I) PVT.LTD S 360000 13.10
7/8/2009 500338 PRISM CEMENT LTD. OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 1919665 53.29
7/8/2009 500338 PRISM CEMENT LTD. OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 1919665 53.31
7/8/2009 526133 SUPERTEX IND KUMKUM STOCK BROKER PVT LTD B 51943 60.11
7/8/2009 526133 SUPERTEX IND KUMKUM STOCK BROKER PVT LTD S 53100 60.10
7/8/2009 519228 TEMPT.FOODS MARYADA BARTER PRIVATE LIMITED S 194365 33.08
7/8/2009 531703 TRIBHVAN HSG SIGRUN Ltd B 290449 12.80
7/8/2009 531703 TRIBHVAN HSG IMTIAZ KHODA B 130000 12.80
7/8/2009 531703 TRIBHVAN HSG CRESTA FUND LTD S 125000 12.80
7/8/2009 531703 TRIBHVAN HSG JOHN VAS S 175000 12.80
7/8/2009 531703 TRIBHVAN HSG CRESTA FUND LTD. S 125000 12.80
7/8/2009 532917 VARUN INDS HITESH SHASHIKANT JHAVERI B 191600 83.20
7/8/2009 532917 VARUN INDS HITESH SHASHIKANT JHAVERI S 245350 83.20
7/8/2009 503657 VEER ENERGY MAHESH CHAND RELA B 8000 182.10
7/8/2009 503657 VEER ENERGY HEMLATA RAMESH HANKARE B 9000 181.68
7/8/2009 503657 VEER ENERGY MAHESH CHAND RELA S 8000 181.88
7/8/2009 503657 VEER ENERGY HEMLATA RAMESH HANKARE S 9000 182.00
7/8/2009 523628 WEAROLOGY LT TIHUNAZ KEKI MEHTA B 50000 45.50
7/8/2009 523628 WEAROLOGY LT DARASHAW KEKI MEHTA B 26440 45.75
7/8/2009 523628 WEAROLOGY LT LAXMI INVESTMENTS S 75967 45.59
7/8/2009 517498 WEBEL SL ENE MACKERTICH CONSULTANCY SERVICES PVT. LTD. S 48800 258.34
7/8/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA KISHORBHAI BALUBHAI CHAUHAN B 22500 158.91
7/8/2009 531249 WELL PACK PA HEMANT MADHUSUDAN SHETH S 32500 158.90

NSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Aug 7 2009


Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
07-AUG-2009,BVCL,Barak Valley Cements Limi,DB (INTERNATIONAL) STOCK BROKERS LTD.,BUY,246856,37.42,-
07-AUG-2009,EDSERV,Edserv Softsystems Limite,RAVI SHANKARAN,BUY,170000,70.99,-
07-AUG-2009,EMCO,Emco Limited,SARALA SHANTILAL MUTTHA,BUY,407060,84.98,-
07-AUG-2009,FAGBEARING,Fag Bearings India Ltd,SUNDARAM MUTUAL FUND A/C. SUNDARAM SMILE FUND,BUY,327905,462.00,-
07-AUG-2009,INDIABULLS,Indiabulls Financial Serv,CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,6226501,183.00,-
07-AUG-2009,ISPATIND,Ispat Industries Limited,JAYPEE CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,BUY,11486763,22.62,-
07-AUG-2009,SHRIRAMCIT,Shriram City Union Financ,NORWEST VENTURE PARTNERS X FII - MAURITIUS,BUY,499700,320.00,-
07-AUG-2009,WWIL,Wire and Wireless (India),ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,1253015,20.42,-
07-AUG-2009,BVCL,Barak Valley Cements Limi,DB (INTERNATIONAL) STOCK BROKERS LTD.,SELL,246856,37.26,-
07-AUG-2009,EMCO,Emco Limited,RAJENDRA ANIL MAYUR,SELL,403515,85.00,-
07-AUG-2009,EMCO,Emco Limited,SARALA SHANTILAL MUTTHA,SELL,7060,85.90,-
07-AUG-2009,FAGBEARING,Fag Bearings India Ltd,TEMPLETON MUTUAL FUND,SELL,327905,462.00,-
07-AUG-2009,INDIABULLS,Indiabulls Financial Serv,ORIENT GLOBAL CINNAMON CAPITAL LIMITED,SELL,6250000,183.01,-
07-AUG-2009,ISPATIND,Ispat Industries Limited,JAYPEE CAPITAL SERVICES LTD.,SELL,11589513,22.56,-
07-AUG-2009,ONMOBILE,OnMobile Global Limited,DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIUS LIMITED,SELL,500000,510.03,-
07-AUG-2009,SHRIRAMCIT,Shriram City Union Financ,CPIM STRUCTURED CREDIT FUND A 1500 LIMITED FDI,SELL,333333,320.03,-
07-AUG-2009,WEBELSOLAR,Webel-SL Energy Systems L,KAYPEE INFOCOM PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,80000,263.45,-
07-AUG-2009,WWIL,Wire and Wireless (India),ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED,SELL,1266225,20.43,-

Markets in profit booking mode


The south-bound trend in the market is likely to continue on the back of a weak global indices. Intra-day volatility and further slump in FIIs may also weigh on the sentiment. Among the key domestic indices, the Nifty may test 4555-4490 on the downside while on the upside the index could test higher levels of 4620, while the Sensex could test higher levels of 15732 and has a likely support at 15413.

US indices fdipped Thursday -- ahead of the closely watched July jobs report -- with investors bailing out of tech, financial and commodity shares in a step back from the big rally of the past month. While the The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 25 points, at 9256 and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) shed 20 points, at 1973.

All ADRs ended with losses on the US bourses. Satyam and Rediff dropped over 5-6% each. Patni Computer, MTNL, HDFC Bank, Infosys, Dr Reddy and Tata Motors were down around 2-3% each. While ICICI Bank, VSNL & Wipro ended with marginal loss.

Crude oil prices inched lower, with the Nymex light crude oil for September delivery slipping by 3 cents at $71.94 a barrel and in the commodity segment, the Comex gold for September series slumped $3.40 to settle at $962.90 an ounce.

NHPC IPO subscribed 3.5 times on day one


Receives bids for 594.09 crore shares

The initial public offer (IPO) of state-run hydro power generation firm NHPC received an overwhelming response on the first day. The issue was subscribed by a whopping 3.54 times. The IPO got bids for 594.09 crore shares as against 168 crore shares offered by the company. More than 4.29 crore shares were bid at cut off price.

The qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) category was subscribed six times. Investors in this category put in bids for 589.31 crore shares as against 98.12 crore shares reserved for this category.

The non institutional investor category, made up of high net worth individuals and corporate investors, was undersubscribed. The category mopped up bids for 10.21 lakh shares as against 16.35 crore shares set aside by the company.

Same was the case with the retail investor category, which was undersubscribed as well. Total bids in this category were for 4.67 crore shares as against 49.06 crore shares assigned by the company.

NHPC is selling 168 crore shares comprising of 5% divestment of stake by the government and infusion of 10% fresh equity. The price band for the IPO is Rs 30 to Rs 36 per equity share.

The issue will constitute 13.64% of the post-issue capital of NHPC. The IPO closes on 12 August 2009.

NHPC is the largest hydroelectric power generating company in the country. It has 13 operating hydro electric power (HEP) plants with an installed capacity of 5,175 megawatts (MW) including two power stations of total 1,520-MW capacity set up through its joint venture subsidiary Narmada Hydroelectric Development Corporation (NHDC). Current total generating capacity is 5,134.2 MW, taking into account the downgrade of the capacity ratings of Loktak and Tanakpur power stations by the Central Electricity Authority.

NHPC is constructing 11 additional hydroelectric projects, which are expected to increase the installed capacity by 4,622 MW. These plants, barring Teesta Low Dam IV, are mostly in the north and northeastern states and scheduled to be commissioned between December 2009 and March 2013. The Teesta Low Dam IV project is coming up in the Darjeeling district of West Bengal.

NHPC is also awaiting government sanction to build another five projects with an anticipated capacity of 4,565 MW on its own and another 2,166-MW capacity projects through certain JV projects. In addition, the company is surveying and investigating proposals for nine additional projects totaling 7,255 MW of anticipated capacity.

Apart from development and operation of HEP projects, NHPC also develops, designs, and delivers HEP station to clients. The company has executed two HEP projects, i.e. Kurichhu HEP in Bhutan and Devighat HEP in Nepal, on contract. Further, it also provides technical, management advisory and consultancy services to domestic and international clients.

NHPC's consolidated net profit rose 3% to Rs 1244.15 crore on 19.2% growth in sales to Rs 3493.71 crore in the year ended March 2009 (FY 2009) over the year ended March 2008

On post-IPO equity of Rs 12300.74 crore, the EPS for FY 2009 works out to Rs 1 and the PE is 30-36 times at the offer price band of Rs 30-Rs 36

Auto, banking shares lead 3.2% Sensex slide


Concerns over scanty rains and worries that the the initial public offer of NHPC may suck out liquidity from the secondary market triggered a correction on the bourses in the first week of August 2009. Weakness in Chinese stocks on talks that the Chinese central bank may rein in lending also weighed on investor sentiment.

Monsoon rains were 64% below the average in the week ended 5 August 2009. The cumulative deficit between 1 June 2009 and 5 August 2009 period widened to 25% from 19% a week earlier.

The June-September rains are the main source of irrigation for farms and are crucial for Asia's third-largest economy as more than two-thirds of the people live in villages and 60% of the farm land depends on the annual rains.

The BSE Sensex fell 510.07 points or 3.26% to 15,160.24 in the week ended 7 August 2009. The S&P CNX Nifty declined 155.05 points or 3.34% to 4481.40 in the week.

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 137.77 points or 2.47% to 5,433.25 and the BSE Small-Cap index fell 12.07 points or 0.19% to 6,193.76.

Trading for the week began on an upbeat note as key benchmarks surged to a 14-month closing high on Monday, 3 August 2009. Sign of recovery in the Indian economy, better-than-expected Q1 June 2009 results from India Inc which just got over and buying by foreign funds underpinned sentiment. The BSE 30-share Sensex jumped 253.92 points or 1.62% to 15,924.23, its highest closing since 3 June 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty was up 74.95 points or 1.62% to 4,711.40, its highest closing since 3 June 2008.

Key benchmark indices edged lower on Tuesday, 4 August 2009, reversing gains in the preceding three trading sessions, as lower European stocks and US index futures triggered profit taking. The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 93.25 points or 0.59% to 15,830.98. The S&P CNX Nifty fell 30.90 points or 0.66% to 4,680.50.

A recovery in European stocks helped Indian equities score gains in what was a choppy trading session on Wednesday, 5 August 2009. Sustained buying by foreign funds and an expected economic recovery in India underpinned sentiment. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 72.85 points or 0.46% to 15,903.83. The S&P CNX Nifty gained 13.65 points or 0.29% to 4,694.15.

The Key benchmark indices nosedived in the fag end of the trading session on Thursday, 6 August 2009, led by fall in auto, metal, realty and FMCG stocks. The sharp slide materialised after television reports said that the monsoon rains were 66% below normal the week to 5 August 2009. The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 389.80 points or 2.45% to 15,514.03. The S&P CNX Nifty fell 108.65 points or 2.31% to 4,585.50.

The key benchmark indices tumbled on Friday, 7 August 2009, posting second straight day of losses, as weak global stocks and below normal rains weighed on investor sentiment. Strong response to the initial public offer (IPO) of NHPC raised concerns it will suck out liquidity from the secondary market. The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 353.79 points or 2.28% to 15,160.24. The S&P CNX Nifty fell 104.10 points or 2.27% to 4481.40.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.98% in the week. Petroleum minister Murli Deora in Parliament on Thursday, 6 August 2009 said that the price approved by the empowered group of ministers (eGoM) for RIL gas from the KG D6 field was lower than the price it had approved for some of the other operators in the country.

Deora said the price of $4.2 was lower than the price of $5.5 charged for gas from the Panna-Mukta-Tapti (PMT) field by a group consisting RIL, ONGC and British Gas. The Anil Ambani group (ADAG) had called the price of $4.2 exorbitant, pointing out that most of the natural gas in the country is being sold at $1.8 to $2.4 per unit.

The Ambani brothers have been at loggerheads since the death of their father in 2002, and a 2005 settlement saw the Reliance group split into two. The Supreme Court on 30 July 2009 said, it will give a date on 1 September 2009 to expedite the decision.

Shares of three public sector oil marketing companies advanced as a hike in retail fuel prices in early July 2009 may boost Q2 September 2009 results. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) (up 5.74%), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) (up 10.52%) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) (up 1.76%), rose. On 1 July 2009, the government had hiked petrol price by Rs 4 per litre and diesel by Rs 2 per litre.

The three public sector oil marketing firms reported strong Q1 June 2009 results as they incurred negligible underrecoveries on domestic sale of fuel at controlled prices. The strong performance was despite lack of any oil bonds from the government.

Power stocks fell even as the NHPC IPO received a robust response from investors. Reliance Infrastructure (down 4.85%), Tata Power Company (down 5.89%), CESC (down 2.73%), Torrent Power (down 2.88%) and Reliance Power (down 4.74%), declined.

The IPO of NHPC, which opened for subscription on 7 August 2009, was subscribed 3.22 times by 15:00 IST that day. The IPO received bids for 540.25 crore shares compared to the issue size of 167.7 crore shares. NHPC is planning to raise Rs 6,040 crore at the upper end of the issue price band of Rs 36. The government kickstarts the divestment process by selling shares in NHPC.

NHPC is selling 167.7 crore shares comprising of 5% divestment of stake by the government and infusion of 10% fresh equity. The strong response for the first state-run IPO in 18 months could embolden the government to sell stake in more firms.

Bank stocks fell as state-run banks remained shut for two days in a row on Thursday and Friday following a nationwide strike by their employees demanding higher wages and pensions. India's biggest bank in terms of branch network State Bank of India (SBI) fell 3.98%

Other PSU stocks, Bank of India (down 1.03%), Indian Overseas Bank (down 5.94%), Bank of Baroda (down 2.55%), Union Bank of India (down 2.61%), declined.

State-run banks account for more than half of banking sector assets and have a dominant presence in the fixed income and foreign exchange markets.

Among the private sector lenders, India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank fell 2.77%. India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank fell 7.14%.

Auto stocks fell on profit taking after recent surge triggered by healthy monthly sales figures for July 2009 and good Q1 June 2009 results. Weak monsoon also triggered profit taking as auto firms derive substantial revenue from rural India. Mahindra & Mahindra (down 2.64%), Bajaj Auto (down 4.02%), Hero Honda Motors (down 7.74%), and Maruti Suzuki India (down 8.63%), TVS Motor Company (down 9.92%), fell.

India's largest truck market by sales Tata Motors fell 1.67%. Global ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded long term corporate credit rating of the auto major to 'B' from 'B+'. The outlook is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's lowered the issue rating on the company's senior unsecured notes to 'B' from 'B+'.

Rate sensitive realty shares declined on profit booking after recent strong gains triggered by of the government's thrust on housing sector in the Union Budget 2009-2010. Unitech (down 4.55%), Omaxe (down 4.92%), DLF (down 6.99%), Anant Raj Industries (down 9.93%), Ackruti City (down 6.28%), fell.

Below-normal rains rattle equities rains


The key benchmark indices fell for the second day in a row as weak global stocks and below normal rains weighed on investor sentiment. Strong response to the initial public offer (IPO) of NHPC raised concerns it will suck out liquidity from the secondary market. Power, auto, realty and banking stocks were the major losers. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) slumped. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 353.79 points or 2.28%. The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak.

Foreign funds today, 7 August 2009, dumped stocks worth a net Rs 1,050.81 crore, provisional data released by the stock exchanges after trading hours showed. Domestic funds bought stocks worth a net Rs 414.43 crore.

The Sensex has lost 743.59 points or 4.67% in the past two trading sessions. The barometer index has shed 763.99 points or 4.79% in four trading sessions form a 14-month closing high of 15,924.23 on Monday, 3 August 2009.

The market was volatile today, 7 August 2009. Media reports that the IPO of state-run NHPC was fully bid within minutes of opening triggered a recovery on the bourses after an early slide triggered by weak global stocks. However, the recovery proved short-lived. The market weakened in morning trade. The market cut losses later. The market weakened again later. It cut losses before tumbling in late trade.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee today said the government and Reserve Bank of India will balance a heavy borrowing plan and ensure adequate funds for the private sector.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain an accommodative monetary stance until the economy shows signs of recovery, a junior finance minister Namo Narain Meena told parliament on Friday, citing last month's policy review report.

The IPO of NHPC, which opened for subscription today, 7 August 2009, was subscribed 3.33 times by 16:00 IST, data on NSE website showed. The IPO received bids for 558.37 crore shares compared to the issue size of 167.7 crore shares. NHPC is planning to raise Rs 6,040 crore at the upper end of the issue price band of Rs 36. The government kickstarts the divestment process by selling shares in NHPC.

NHPC is selling 167.7 crore shares comprising of 5% divestment of stake by the government and infusion of 10% fresh equity. The strong response for the first state-run IPO in 18 months could embolden the government to sell stake in more firms. Steel minister Virbhadra Singh said today that the government has identified two state run steel firms for stake sale and may sell 20% stake in these firms.

Investors continue to bet that the government will undertake economic reforms which may boost economic growth and corporate earnings. The Q1 June 2009 results of India Inc were encouraging, with lower costs helping bottomline growth. The combined net profit of 3,091 companies rose 17% to Rs 73712 crore on 5% fall in sales to Rs 722557 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

But, scanty rains remains a cause of concerns for investors. The South West monsoon rains were 64% below normal in the past seven days to 5 August 2009, dipping for the second straight week at a crucial period for oilseeds and sugarcane, and raising concerns of rising food prices. Last week's rainfall was the worst since mid-June, while total rainfall since the start of season on 1 June 2009 was a quarter below average, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday.

Water level in the main reservoirs was at 36% of capacity in the week to August, crawling up 1 % point in seven days when the country received barely a third of normal rainfall. The June-September rains are the main source of irrigation for farms and are crucial for Asia's third-largest economy as more than two-thirds of the people live in villages and 60% of the farm land depends on the annual rains.

Planning commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia on Thursday said rising food prices are a matter of concern, but the country has comfortable food stocks to deal with any difficult situation. The wholesale price index fell 1.58% in the 12 months to 25 July 2009, but food prices are on the rise, government data showed on Thursday.

Heavy purchases by foreign funds has triggered a solid rally on the bourses this year. The Sensex was up 5512.93 points or 57.14% in calendar year 2009 as on 7 August 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex was up 6999.84 points or 85.77% as on 7 August 2009.

Foreign institutional investors' (FIIs) inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 36,114.20 crore (till 6 August 2009). Foreign funds sold shares worth Rs 246.50 crore on Thursday, 6 August 2009.

European shares were lower in early trade on Friday as investors awaited the influential US non-farm payroll data, with banking shares the biggest losers after RBS posted a first-half loss. The key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were down by between 0.57% to 1.14%.

Asian stocks fell for the third time in four days on Friday, 7 August 2009, as lower earnings from Konica Minolta Holdings Inc. and DBS Group Holdings fueled concern an equity rally in the past month had outpaced prospects for corporate profits. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong and Singapore fell by between 2% to 2.85%. But key benchmark indices in Japan and South Korea rose by between 0.23% to 0.7%. The Taiwan stock market was closed for a holiday.

Trading in US index futures indicated Dow could fall 22 points at the opening bell today, 7 August 2009.

US stocks ended lower for a second straight session on Thursday, 6 July 2009 as tech stocks dragged after tepid outlook from Cisco. Investors also remained jittery ahead of Friday's jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 24.71 points, or 0.3%, to 9,256.26. The S&P 500 index fell 5.64 points, or 0.6%, to 997.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index shed 19.89 points, or 1%, to 1,973.16.

In economic news, weekly initial jobless claims fell by 38,000 last week; more than expected. But continuing claims were more-than-expected at over 6 million, up from the previous week.

The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 353.79 points or 2.28% to 15,160.24. The Sensex fell 12.09 points at the day's high of 15,501.94 in early trade. The Sensex tanked 410.03 points at the day's low of 15,104 in late trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty was down 104.10 points or 2.27% to 4,481.40. Nifty August 2009 futures were at 4467, at a discount of 14.40 points as compared to the spot closing of 4481.40. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 65,231.26 crore, much lower than Rs 73,819.40 crore on Thursday, 6 August 2009.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5424 crore, lower than Rs 7169.11 crore on Thursday, 6 August 2009.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was weak. On BSE, 743 shares advanced as compared with 1921 that declined. A total of 78 shares remained unchanged.

Among the 30-member Sensex pack, 27 fell while the rest gained.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 2.27% and the BSE Small-Cap index was down 1.92%. Both the indices outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Consumer Durables index (down 3.92%), the BSE Auto index (down 3.87%), the BSE Realty index (down 3.29%), the BSE Bankex (down 2.96%), the BSE Power index (down 2.65%), the BSE Capital Goods index (down 2.39%), underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE IT index (down 0.78%), the BSE Healthcare index (down 1.14%), the BSE PSU index (down 1.47%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (down 1.76%), the BSE Teck index (down 1.97%), the BSE Metal index (down 2.12%), the BSE FMCG index (down 2.25%), outperformed the Sensex.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 2.47% to Rs 1,995.90. The stock hit a high of Rs 2,064 and a low of Rs 1,990. Petroleum minister Murli Deora in Parliament on Thursday, 6 August 2009 said that the price approved by the empowered group of ministers (eGoM) for RIL gas from the KG D6 field was lower than the price it had approved for some of the other operators in the country.

Deora said the price of $4.2 was lower than the price of $5.5 charged for gas from the Panna-Mukta-Tapti (PMT) field by a group consisting RIL, ONGC and British Gas. The Anil Ambani group (ADAG) had called the price of $4.2 exorbitant, pointing out that most of the natural gas in the country is being sold at $1.8 to $2.4 per unit.

The Ambani brothers have been at loggerheads since the death of their father in 2002, and a 2005 settlement saw the Reliance group split into two. The Supreme Court on 30 July 2009 said, it will give a date on 1 September 2009 to expedite the decision.

Shares of three public sector oil marketing companies advanced as a hike in retail fuel prices in early July 2009 may boost Q2 September 2009 results. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) rose by between 1.15% to 2.87%. On 1 July 2009,the government had hiked petrol price by Rs 4 per litre and diesel by Rs 2 per litre.

The three public sector oil marketing firms reported strong Q1 June 2009 results as they incurred negligible underrecoveries on domestic sale of fuel at controlled prices. The strong performance was despite lack of any oil bonds from the government.

Power stocks fell even as the NHPC IPO received a robust response. Reliance Infrastructure, Tata Power Company, CESC, Torrent Power and Reliance Power fell by between 0.27% to 4.78%.

Bank stocks fell as state-run banks remained shut on Friday as a nationwide strike by their employees demanding higher wages and pensions entered the second day. India's biggest bank in terms of branch network State Bank of India (SBI) fell 3.08%.

Other PSU stocks, Bank of India, Indian Overseas Bank, Bank of Baroda, Union Bank of India fell by between 0.7% to 2.52%.

State-run banks account for more than half of banking sector assets and have a dominant presence in the fixed income and foreign exchange markets.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank fell 3.62% as its ADR fell 1.7% on Thursday. India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank fell 1.5% as its ADR fell 2.67% overnight.

Auto stocks fell on profit taking after recent surge triggered by healthy monthly sales figures for July 2009 and good Q1 June 2009 results. Weak monsoon also triggered profit taking as auto firms derive substantial revenue from rural India. Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Auto, Hero Honda Motors, and Maruti Suzuki India, TVS Motor Company fell by between 2.51% to 5.72%.

India's largest truck market by sales Tata Motors fell 0.91%. Early this week, the global ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded long term corporate credit rating of the auto major to 'B' from 'B+'. The outlook is negative. At the same time, Standard & Poor's lowered the issue rating on the company's senior unsecured notes to 'B' from 'B+'.

Rate sensitive realty shares declined on profit booking after recent strong gains triggered by of the government's thrust on housing sector in the Union Budget 2009-2010. Unitech, Phoenix Mills, Omaxe, DLF, Anant Raj Industries, Ackruti City, fell by between 0.39% to 8.08%.

FMCG stocks fell on concerns over annual monsoon. FMCG firms derive substantial revenue from rural sector. Hindustan Unilever, Tata Tea, ITC, United Spirits, REI Agro, Nestle India fell by between 0.95% to 7.14%.

Capital goods and construction shares fell on profit booking after recent strong gains triggered by of the government's thrust on the infrastructure sector in the Union Budget 2009-2010.

From the capital goods space, Larsen & Toubro, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Crompton Greaves, Praj Indutries, ABB, BEML, Thermax, Siemens, fell by between 0.49% to 5.06%.

Among construction shares, Gayatri Projects, IVRCL Infrastructure & Projects, Era Infra Engineering, Hindustan Construction Company, fell by between 1.94% to 4.99%.

Cement stocks fell on profit taking after a recent surge triggered by healthy July 2009 monthly sales. UltraTech Cement, Ambuja Cements, ACC fell by between 0.24% to 2.97%.

IT stocks fell after a tepid outlook from Cisco. India's largest IT exporter by sales TCS fell 1.82%. The company recently bagged an order from multi-brand discount chain The Loot. TCS will manage the back-end and software support system for the retail chain.

India's second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys fell 0.62% as its American depository receipt (ADR) fell 2.14% on Thursday. The company signed an agreement with BanColombia SA for its Finacle software to be used by the Colombian bank and its overseas units.

But, India's third largest IT exporter by sales Wipro rose 0.13%. The company announced on Wednesday, 5 July 2009, that it has entered a five-year contract with US apparel retailer Charming Shoppes Inc. to provide information technology services.

Metal shares fell as LMEX, a gauge of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, fell 3.5% on Thursday, 6 August 2009. Tata Steel, Steel Authority of India, Jindal Steel, Sterlite Industries, National Aluminum Company, Hindalco Industries fell by between 1.16% to 2.96%.

Shipping stocks fell after the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, tumbled 4.7% in London on Thursday, a sixth-consecutive decline. Essar Shipping, GE Shipping and Company, Mercator Lines and Shipping Corporation of India fell by between 4.35% to 7.38%.

Ispat Industries clocked highest volume of 1.94 crore shares on BSE. Unitech (1.66 crore shares), Firstsource Solutions (1.58 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (1.34 crore shares) and Prism Cement (1.27 crore shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Tata Steel clocked highest turnover of Rs 234.09 crore on BSE. Reliance Industries (Rs 221.88 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 150.22 crore), DLF (Rs 148.15 crore) and Unitech (Rs 142.74 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

Market may extend losses on scanty rains


The market may extend losses registered in the first week of August 2009 on concerns about below normal rains and worries that the initial public offer of state-run NHPC will suck out liquidity from the secondary market. The market underwent a correction in the first week of August 2009 after a sparkling rally last month. The BSE Sensex lost 510.07 points or 3.26% in the week ended 7 August 2009.

The key economic data due next week is industrial production for June 2009. Industrial output had risen by a faster-than-expected 2.7% in May 2009. Among the global indicators, the US Labor Department is due to release its non-farm payroll report for July 2009 on Friday, 7 August 2009. If the jobs data is worse than expected, it may trigger a sell-off in global equity markets.

All eyes are now on how monsoon fares in August 2009 as a dismal rainfall could be bad news for the country's agriculture, economy and even its stock market. According to reports, the average rainfall in July 2009 was near normal but it had been below normal for northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab and Haryana.

The rainfall for the week-ended 5 August 2009 was reported to be 66% below normal at 23.5 millimeter (mm). Monsoon rains between 1 June 2009 to 4 August 2009 were 25% below normal.

The June-September rains are the main source of irrigation for farms and are crucial for Asia's third-largest economy as more than two-thirds of the people live in villages and 60% of the farm land depends on the annual rains.

As far as liquidity is concerned, the equity market is likely to be short of cash next week. The big bang IPO of NHPC, that closes on 12 August 2009, has already weakened equities by sucking investors' cash away from the secondary market.

The IPO of NHPC, state-run hydroelectric power generator, was fully subscribed within minutes of opening on Friday, 7 August 2009. This is the first IPO by a public sector company after the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance assumed office for a second term, this time with a decisive mandate. The NHPC IPO is a combination of fresh sale of shares by the company and a 5% divestment of stake by the government.

It is likely that in short term there will be diversion of funds from the secondary market to the new offerings. However, this factors will not diminish the prospects for shares in the secondary market in the long term. The market would rebound after consolidation, supported by an expected upward revision in earnings estimates for companies by brokerages after stronger-than-expected Q1 June 2009 results.

A leading US-based brokerage has raised India's equity market to 'overweight' from 'neutral' amid political stability and stepped-up economic reforms.

Monsoon woes may take the market down


No matter how confidently the agriculture minister or the ‘Mausam Bhavan’ mandarins may have denied the possibilities of drought, the reality is finally staring in the face and Dalal Street was not waiting for a formal certificate from the Government, which may not come before September. Yesterday’s sharp sell off was just a gentle reminder that it is changing gears. Its now headed south.

The world markets are waiting for the July non-farm pay roll numbers, where 2,75,000 job losses are seen. This will be the 19th consecutive month of job losses with the unemployment at 9.7%, the highest in a quarter century. Even if the actual number is less, there is a likelihood that going forward job losses could rise if Challenger, Gray and Christmas’s expectations of further job losses are anything to go by. Continue booking profits and losses, as the case may be, in long trading positions. Agri-commodity based stocks could do well.

Pre Session Commentary - Aug 7 2009


Today domestic markets are likely to open negative as there are bearish sentiments prevailing across other markets. The US markets closed lower after unimpressive July same stores data. There is hardly any guidance from other markets and therefore one could witness some consolidation happening across domestic markets as well. Markets are likely to trade range bound today.

On Thursday, Domestic markets opened on downbeat note tracking weak cues from global markets. The US stocks markets closed lower on Wednesday following some weaker-than-expected economic reports. The ISM services index for July unexpectedly slipped to 46.4 from 47 in June. Besides, the latest ADP employment report in US indicated that 3.71 lakh jobs were slashed in July. Further, benchmark indices continued to trade weak amid volatility on sustained selling over the counters. However, market managed to gain some ground during afternoon trade tracking gains in European stocks, before slipping again. Going ahead, stocks extended losses and nosedived during final trading backed by strong selling pressure. From the sectoral front, investors off-loaded positions across the sectors. Besides, most of the selling was witnessed in Auto, Realty, Metal, FMCG, Power, Consumer Durables, Capital Goods and IT stocks. BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices also remained under pressure.

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 389.80 points or (2.45%) at 15,514.03 and NSE Nifty ended down by 108.65 points or (2.31%) at 4,585.50. BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with losses of 136.07 and 82.59 points at 5,559.26 and 6,314.79 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 15,969.81 and intraday low of 15,443.22.

On Thursday, US stock markets closed lower. Markets opened with solid gains however the unimpressive data of July same store sales pulled the market sentiments. On the other hand, the smaller-than-expected weekly initial jobless claims tally of 550,000 was positive driving news for the traders. Meanwhile the continuing claims were more-than-expected at 6.31 million, up from the previous week. Traders are also waiting for the Non-farm payrolls data for the month of July that is due to be declared today before the opening bell. In sector specific Financials which were logging gains for the past five consecutive sessions ended with losses of 0.7%. US light crude oil futures for September delivery closed at $71.94 per barrel lower by 0.1% on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed lower by 24.71 points at 9,256.26, NASDAQ index declined by 19.89 points to 1,973.16 and the S&P 500 (SPX) closed lower by 5.64 points at 997.08.

Indian ADRs ended in red on Thursday. In the IT space, Satyam Computers was down 6.05%, Infosys was down 2.14%, Patni Computers was down 2.97% and Wipro was down 0.85%. In the banking space, HDFC Bank was down 2.67% and ICICI Bank was down 1.7%. In the telecom space, MTNL was down 2.12% and Tata Communication was down 0.83%. In other sectors, Sterlite Industries was down 5.11%, Dr Reddy''s Labs was down 3.76% and Tata Motors was down 2.84%.

The FIIs on Thursday stood as net sellers in equity and net buyers in debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 1,948.90 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 2,429.40 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 196.90 Crore, while gross debt sold stood at Rs 71.40 Crore. The net investment of equity reported was Rs (480.40) Crore and net debt was Rs 125.50 Crore.

On Thursday, the partially convertible rupee ended at Rs 47.68/69, 0.3% weaker than its previous close at 47.52/53. The rupee lost grounds due to drastic fall in local stock markets.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 56.78 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 7,169.11 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 113.30 Crore and total turnover was Rs 21,070 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with total volume traded 65119620 shares, followed by Suzlon Energy with 35254386, Hindalco with 15388145, DLF with 14618793 and ICICI Bank with 13908696 shares.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 959421 with a total turnover of Rs 21,171.56 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 670402 with a total turnover of Rs 21,194.51 crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1241929 with a total turnover of Rs 29,475.34 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 60942 and notional turnover was Rs 1,977.99 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 4,478 and resistance at 4,622 and BSE Sensex has support at 15,322 and resistance at 15,610.

Market may extend Thursday's losses on weak global cues losses


The key benchmark indices may extend Thursday's (6 August 2009) losses tracking weak global cues. Weak progress of India's annual monsoon may also weigh on investor sentiment.

The Key benchmark indices nosedived in last one hour or so of trade on Thursday led by fall in auto, metal, realty and FMCG stocks. The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 389.80 points or 2.45% to 15,514.03 on that day.

Heavy purchases by foreign funds has triggered a solid rally on the bourses this year. The Sensex was up 5866.72 points or 60.81% in calendar year 2009 as on 6 August 2009. From a 3-year closing low of 8,160.40 on 9 March 2009, the Sensex was up 7353.60 points or 90.11% as on 6 August 2009.

Foreign institutional investors' (FIIs) inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 36,360.70 crore (till 5 August 2009). However, as per provisional figures on NSE, foreign funds sold shares worth Rs 371.41 crore and domestic funds bought shares worth Rs 257.40 crore on Thursday, 6 August 2009.

The Q1 June 2009 results of India Inc were encouraging, with lower costs helping bottomline growth. The combined net profit of 3,067 companies rose 17% to Rs 73706 crore on 5% fall in sales to Rs 722421 crore in Q1 June 2009 over Q1 June 2008.

However, weak progress of India's annual monsoon may weigh on investor sentiment. India's monsoon rains were 64% below normal in the past seven days, dipping for the second straight week at a crucial period for oilseeds and sugarcane, and raising concerns of rising food prices. Last week's rainfall was the worst since mid-June, while total rainfall since the start of season on 1 June was a quarter below average, the India Meteorological Department said on Thursday. The June-September rains are the main source of irrigation for farms and are crucial for Asia's third-largest economy as more than two-thirds of the people live in villages and 60% of the farm land depends on the annual rains.

Meanwhile, India's plan panel deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said on Thursday rising food prices are a matter of concern, but the country has comfortable food stocks to deal with any difficult situation. India's wholesale price index fell 1.58 % in the 12 months to 25 July, but food prices are on the rise, government data showed on Thursday.

Investors will keenly watch response to the initial public offering of NHPC which opens for subscription today, 7 August 2009. The company is planning to raise Rs 6,040 crore at the upper end of the issue price band of Rs 36. The company is selling 168 crore shares comprising of 5% divestment of stake by the government and infusion of 10% fresh equity.

Asian stocks fell for the third time in four days today as lower earnings from Konica Minolta Holdings Inc. and DBS Group Holdings fueled concern an equity rally in the past month had outpaced prospects for corporate profits. The key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore fell by between 0.58% to 1.23%.

The US markets ended lower for a second straight session on Thursday, 6 July 2009 as tech stocks dragged after tepid outlook from Cisco. Investors also remained jittery ahead of Friday's jobs report. Dow fell 24.71 points, or 0.3%, to 9,256.26. The S&P 500 index fell 5.64 points, or 0.6%, to 997.08. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 19.89 points, or 1%, to 1,973.16.

In economic news, weekly initial jobless claims fell by 38,000 last week; more than expected. But continuing claims were more-than-expected at over 6 million, up from the previous week.

Grey Market Premiums - NHPC, Adani Power, Raj Oil Mills


NHPC

Offer Price: 30 to 36

Current Grey Market Premium: 10 to 11

Adani Power

Offer Price: 100

Current Grey Market Premium: 7.50 to 8.50

Raj Oil Mills

Offer Price: 120

Current Grey Market Premium: 3 to 5

Market in profit booking mode


The south-bound trend in the market is likely to continue on the back of a weak global indices. Intra-day volatility and further slump in FIIs may also weigh on the sentiment. Among the key domestic indices, the Nifty may test 4555-4490 on the downside while on the upside the index could test higher levels of 4620, while the Sensex could test higher levels of 15732 and has a likely support at 15413.

US indices fdipped Thursday -- ahead of the closely watched July jobs report -- with investors bailing out of tech, financial and commodity shares in a step back from the big rally of the past month. While the The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 25 points, at 9256 and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) shed 20 points, at 1973.

All ADRs ended with losses on the US bourses. Satyam and Rediff dropped over 5-6% each. Patni Computer, MTNL, HDFC Bank, Infosys, Dr Reddy and Tata Motors were down around 2-3% each. While ICICI Bank, VSNL & Wipro ended with marginal loss.

Crude oil prices inched lower, with the Nymex light crude oil for September delivery slipping by 3 cents at $71.94 a barrel and in the commodity segment, the Comex gold for September series slumped $3.40 to settle at $962.90 an ounce.

SGX Nifty on the slide


4,544.0 -41.0

Crude ends marginally lower


Jobless data and strong dollar take crude lower

Crude prices ended marginally lower on Thursday, 06 August, 2009. Prices fell as the dollar strengthened and also there was anticipation about weak hurricane season in the forthcoming months.

On Thursday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for September delivery closed at $71.94/barrel (lower by $0.03 or 0.1%). During intra day trading, it fell to a low of $70.18. Last week, crude ended higher by 2.1%.

For the month of July, 2009, crude ended lower by a marginal 0.6%. For the second quarter, crude ended higher by 40%. Crude prices had rallied 11.3% in the first quarter of 2009.

Oil prices had reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 44% since then. Year to date, in 2009, crude prices are higher by 49%.

In the currency market on Thursday, the dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, rose by almost 0.5%.

The Labor Department reported today those first-time claims for state unemployment benefits declined by 38,000 to 550,000 last week. The four-week average of new jobless claims dropped to 555,250, the lowest level since January.

EIA reported yesterday that crude supplies increased 1.7 million barrels to 349.5 million barrels in the week ended 31 July, 2009. Market was expecting a rise of 1.5 million barrels. The Energy Department also said that gasoline stocks fell by 200,000 barrels and distillate inventories dropped by 1.1 million barrels last week.

Also at the Nymex on Thursday, September reformulated gasoline rose slightly to $2.0607 a gallon, and September heating oil slid 2.02 cents, or 1%, to $1.9367 a gallon.

September natural gas futures tumbled 29.9 cents, or 7.4%, to end at $3.743 per million British thermal units. EIA reported today that U.S. natural-gas inventories rose 66 billion cubic feet in the week ended 31 July, 2009.

Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.

At the MCX, crude oil for August delivery closed higher by 34 (0.99%) at Rs 3,438/barrel. Natural gas for August delivery closed at Rs 182.7/mmbtu, lower by Rs 10.6/mmbtu (5.5%).

Daily News Roundup - Aug 7 2009


L&T has scaled down its initial investment plan for the ship building yard and minor port complex at Ennore from Rs25bn to Rs15bn. (ET)

L&T in race for KIOCL's Rs3bn order for construction of the ductile iron spun pipe plant. (BS)

Indian IT majors – Infosys, TCS and Wipro – are likely to bid aggressively for the Rs25bn e-maintenance contract of Indian Air Force. (FE)

TCS plans to reinforce its product line to boost its offering and ensure growth. (ET)

Tata Steel has over US$2bn in cash to fund its growth plans. (FE)

Tata Steel’s July sales increased by 18% to 0.5mn tons. (FE)

Tata Power plans to invest Rs236bn over the next three years to expand its generation capacity. (ET)

Aditya Birla Nuvo to deploy surplus cash in new-age biz like Financial services, BPO, telcom and IT. (BS)

Arcelor Mittal plans to source equipments for its greenfield projects from India and China. (ET)

Punj Lloyd plans to raise Rs6.7bn through a private placement with QIBs. (ET)

US based ATC, Crown Castle, Bharti Infratel and Tata Quippo are shortlisted for buying out Aircel’s tower business in a deal worth US$1.5-2bn, RCom arm fails to qualify. (ET)

US Court to hear Glenmark’s patent dispute on August 19. (ET)

Thermax bagged US$20mn from Egypt based cement maker for installing an air pollution abatement system. (FE)

Telenor, which owns 67.2% stake in Unitech Wireless, plans to launch its operations in India by end of this year. (FE)

T Rowe Price is set to pick up 26% stake in UTI at Rs200/share, 20% lower than the price informally offered by LIC and SBI. (ET)

REC to lend Rs40bn to MAHATRANSCO over the next three years. (ET)

TTML is looking for partners to sell its 49% stake in its tower arm and wholly owned subsidiary, 21st Century Infra Tele. (FE)

TTML bets big on GSM and broadband services. (ET)

GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare plans aggressive acquisitions and new products introduction to double revenues. (ET)

Radico Khaitan has entered into a tie-up with the Chennai-based SNJ Distillers Pvt. Ltd to bottle a new brand of rum and brandy. (BL)

Godrej Industries said it is open to diluting stake incase it finds a good acquisition opportunity. (ET)

Elder Pharmaceuticals is in talks with PE companies to raise Rs1.5bn. (ET)

Bhusan Power and Steel plans to invest Rs30bn to add 250MW capacity to its existing power plant and to increase the production of value added steel at its Orissa plant. (ET)

Inflation for the week ended June 25th stood at -1.58% against 12.53% last year, but food prices continued to surge. (ET)

Government plans to set stiff new terms for the pricing and marketing of oil and gas from exploration block that are due for auction. (ET)

Indian mobile operates added 12mn subscribers in June taking the total base to 427.3mn. (ET)

TRAI says that guidelines for number portability are likely to be ready by August end. (ET)

Indian monsoon rains were 64% below normal during the week ended August 5th, a critical crop week. (ET)

Government will give Rs25.5bn financial help to domestic textile firms for upgrading their manufacturing units. (ET)

NPPA has revised prices of 887 drugs including steroids, insulin, vitamins and painkillers. (ET)

Q1 FY10 job losses in the country touch 0.2mn. (FE)

Government has deferred the introduction of the controversial Land Acquisition (Amendment) and Rehabilitation and Resettlement bills. (FE)

Down Under in a blink!


There can be as much value in the blink of an eye as in months of rational analysis.

Thursday’s last hour tumble took most players by surprise, barring of course those who probably engineered the fall. Some term it a ‘trading strategy’ while reports suggest an Australian institution (Down Under did we say!) initiated short positions in Nifty futures after 2 pm causing a cascading effect.

Some cooling was only to be expected after hitting multi-month highs. Support is likely to come in at around 4400. On the upside, 4720 is the level to keep an eye on. Today, we expect a flat to slightly lower start. Key Asian markets are in the red. US stock benchmarks were nervous to say the least ahead of Friday’s monthly jobs report. The overall bias remains positive from medium- to long-term point of view.

Concerns, however, seem to be escalating on the monsoon deficit and its wider fallout on the economy, especially on food prices. Rumors are the ‘drought’ word could cause some heartburn. Interest rates are also expected to head higher in a few months. On the global front too, the recovery appears to be fragile.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs3.7bn in the cash segment on Thursday on a provisional basis while the local funds pumped in Rs2.57bn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs3.12bn.

On Wednesday, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs4.8bn in the cash segment. Their net purchases of Indian stocks have crossed $7.5bn year-to-date. Mutual Funds were also net sellers of Rs2.09bn on Wednesday.

The US recession that started in December 2007 is done, says economist Dennis Gartman. "We saw it happen two weeks ago - it is over," he adds. He had told subscribers to his newsletter in the fall of 2007 that the US was entering a recession, the Dow was at 13,500 then. The official confirmation from the US government came a year later.

Quite a few economists and market experts have recently been saying that US recession is winding down. NYU economics professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the worldwide meltdown, says the US recession will end later this year. However, some private economists are still debating whether US growth will cool in 2010 after a widely expected recovery later this year. If pessimists are right, stocks and employers will be at risk again.

Friday brings the week's biggest economic report, the July jobs report. Employers are expected to have cut 328,000 jobs from their payrolls after slashing 467,000 jobs in the previous month. The unemployment report, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have inched up to 9.7% from 9.5% last month.

On the positive side, fund flows into EPFR Global-tracked equity funds hit a one year high for the second week running. Investors showed an increased appetite for diversified exposure and for exposure to developed rather than emerging markets.

Meanwhile, US stocks fell on Thursday as investors chose to stay on the sidelines ahead of the eagerly awaited July jobs report. Investors booked profit in technology, financial and commodity shares.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 25 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 index fell 5 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite shed 20 points, or 1%.

Friday brings the week's biggest economic report, the July jobs report. Employers are expected to have cut 328,000 jobs from their payrolls after slashing 467,000 jobs in the previous month. The unemployment report, generated by a separate survey, is expected to have inched up to 9.7% from 9.5% last month.

A worse-than-expected report could cause a big selloff on Wall Street, especially after the recent run up stocks have had. The June numbers were worse than expected and stocks reacted badly. The labor market is generally a lagging indicator for the economy, but nonetheless, the rising unemployment rate is alarming.

Stocks surged in July and touched multi-month highs earlier this week, on relief that the economy and corporate profits seem to be close to stabilizing. But after hitting those levels on Tuesday, stocks have slipped. But, on the whole, stocks have been rising since the S&P 500 closed at 12-year lows on March 9. Since then, the S&P 500 has gained nearly 48%.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment to 550,000 last week from 588,000 in the previous week. Economists thought claims would rise to 580,000. The report was the latest lead-in to the monthly figures.

On Wednesday, the monthly report from payroll-services firm ADP showed that private-sector employers cut 371,000 in July, worse than expected, but the smallest monthly total since October. A tepid batch of July retail sales from the nation's chains showed the impact of the sluggish labor market.

Late on Wednesday, Cisco Systems reported lower revenue that met estimates and lower earnings that topped estimates. Looking forward, the company cut its current-quarter revenue outlook and CEO John Chambers said it was too soon to call a recovery. Shares of the Dow component were little changed.

AIG continued to rise as investors piled in ahead of its quarterly results, due out on Friday. The troubled insurer, 80% owned by the government, has nearly doubled its value this week, despite remaining mired in debt.

Other troubled financials rallied too, including mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the government last year. The rest of the financial sector was mixed, with Dow component American Express up 3% and JPMorgan Chase down 2.5%.

Procter & Gamble slumped after the Dow component reported weaker quarterly results on Wednesday and warned that it would post lower profit in the current quarter as well.

US light crude oil for September delivery fell 3 cents to settle at $71.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, erasing bigger morning losses. Oil prices have been gaining over the last few weeks on bets that the global economy is close to turning a corner.

Big oil stocks slipped, including Dow components Chevron and Exxon Mobil.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $3.40 to settle at $962.90 an ounce.

Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.75% from 3.74% late on Wednesday.

In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

After a decline on Wednesday following disappointing US services data, the pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index rose 0.5% to 227.97. Merrill Lynch reiterated a target that the Stoxx 600 will hit 300 by the end of 2010.

UK's FTSE 100 index was up 0.9% to 4,690.53. Germany's DAX index gained 0.2% to 5,369.98 and the French CAC 40 index added 0.6% to 3,477.83. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both decided to keep interest rates unchanged.

Indian markets registered their biggest fall of the month on Thursday with the NSE Nifty index breaking below the crucial 4,600 levels. Markets witnessed heavy offloading in the last hour of trade on account of profit booking.

Key indices exhibited some signs of fatigue after touching new highs for the year after reports stated that monsoon rains were ~60% lower than normal putting a question mark on the economic growth.

Sentiments on Dalal-Street were further hit after the Shanghai index in China ended lower on concerns about the health of Chinese banks and possible building of bubbles in that country's stock and property markets.

Coming back to domestic issues, banking operations across the nation were paralized as nearly 10 lakh employees of nationalised banks, led by SBI, and select private banks began their two-day strike to demand higher salaries and pension benefits. Staff from about 26 public sector banks, 10 private banks and eight foreign banks participated in the strike.

Another indicator the Instanex index (index that tracks the performance of investments made by FIIs. ) suggets that, FII were also sellers in the Indian markets, the Instanex FII Index was down 1.85% at 327.92 and the Instanex DII 15 portfolio was down 2.23%. Sensex was down 2.45% and Nifty was down 2.31%.

The other Instanex Owner Indexes were also down – the Instanex Retail 15 portfolio was down 2.13%, the Instanex Top 15 portfolio was down 1.93% and the Instanex Promoter 15 portfolio was down 1.74%.

Finally, the BSE Sensex slipped 390 points or 2.4% at 15,514 after touching a high of 15,970 and a low of 15,443. The index opened at 15,881 against the previous close of 15,904. The NSE Nifty ended lower by 109 points to shut shop at 4,585.

In Asia, the Nikkei in Japan ended higher by 1.3% at 10,388 while Australia's S&P/ASX ended higher by 1.5% at 4,326. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong ended higher by 2% at 20,899. Shanghai index in China slipped by 2.1% at 3,356.

In Europe, stocks were trading higher. The FTSE in the UK was up 0.8%. The DAX was up 0.5% and the CAC 40 index in France was up 0.7%.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Auto index was the top loser, losing 4.4%, followed by the Realty index that was down 3.6%. The BSE FMCG index down 3.2% and the BSE Metal index was down 3%.

The BSE Mid-Cap index ended lower by 2.3% and the BSE Small-Cap index ended lower by 1.2%.

Within the Sensex, the major gainers were Tata Motors, Hindalco, JP Associates, Maruti, Hero Honda and ACC. Among the major gainers were Sun Pharma and Wipro.

Outside the frontline indices, the big losers in the broader market were Indiabulls Real Estate, Sterling Biotech, Pantaloon, Moser Baer and Aditya Birla. On the other hand, gainers included Shriran Transport, Corp Bank, OBC, Nestle and Glaxo.

Shares of NTPC also erased gains and lost 2% to Rs210. According to reports, the public sector power generation giant submitted a proposal for a follow-on public offering (FPO) to the Finance Ministry. The Government is likely to sell a 5% stake in NTPC through this FPO, according to reports.

The stock opened at Rs215 and made an intra-day high of Rs218.55 and a low of Rs209. Total traded volumes stood at 1.8mn shares.

National Aluminium saw a 9% drop in metal production in the previous month after rains disrupted coal supplies, Chairman C.R. Pradhan was quoted as saying. Aluminium production will also be affected this month, he added.

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange are expected to range between US$1,800 and US$2,000 a ton in the near term, Pradhan said.

The stock erased gains and ended lower by 2% to end at Rs318 after hitting an intra-day high of Rs334 and a low of Rs316. Total traded volumes stood at 72,000 mn shares.

Hindustan Zinc announced that it has raised prices of zinc and lead after the metals jumped on the London Metal Exchange. Zinc prices were raised by Rs5,500 per metric ton while, lead prices were raised by Rs5,900 per metric ton.

The stock erased gained and ended lower by 1.5% to Rs726, it had opened at Rs739 and made an intra-day high of Rs751 and a low of Rs721. Total traded volumes stood at 36,000 shares.

Shares of DCB rallied by over 11% to Rs38.6 after reports stated that the bank plans to raise at least Rs750mn through sale of lower Tier-II bonds. The bonds have a maturity of five years and eight months and carry a coupon rate of 11.25%, reports added.

The stock opened at Rs35 and made an intra-day high of Rs41 and a low of Rs34.7. Total traded volumes stood at 1.1mn shares.

Shares of Austral Coke gained by 1.5% to Rs437 after the company acquired 1,82,000 square meters of land at Vizag, Andhra Pradesh to set up a Lam Coke Manufacturing Plant, which will have a capacity of 6,00,000 MTPA. The location is strategic and logistically ideal for lam coke business as it is situated between Gangavaram and Vizag ports. Overall logistic cost will also go down.

Market may hold 4400 level


The Nifty could not hold the 4,700 level for the third consecutive day on profit-booking at higher levels. We had indicated that the Nifty might close below the 4,600 level during the week, and the index slipped below this level yesterday to close at 4,580. For the restoration of the bull market, the index has to trade convincingly above the 4,710 level.

Trading in the Nifty futures suggested that the index might not go below the 4,400 level in the near future. Though the Nifty closed at 4,585 yesterday, the average trade took place around the 4,651 level, indicating that the bulls were not willing to sell below 4,600.

According to technical analysts of JM Financials, the Sensex at 16,000 is at 61.8 per cent retracement to the entire downtrend from its January 2008 high and October 2008 low and, hence, understandably the market is facing some supply around this point. On a closing basis, the uptrend should accelerate.

A build-up in the 4700 call option and the 4300 put option was visible. The options traders were seen buying 4,500-4,700 puts on expectations of a fresh correction below the 4,500 level. Trading was also witnessed in the 4,400 put as open interest (OI) in this strike put has almost remained unchanged despite a trading volume of 3.62 million shares. The 50 per cent retracement for the January-October 2008 rally is around the 4,400 level. The support is seen at 4,300-4,400 levels.

The Nifty August futures closed at a discount to the spot and shed an open interest of 727,950 shares compared to an intra-day build-up of 2.42 million shares. This means bulls have unwound some long positions at higher levels.

via Business Standard

Precious metals end lower


Gold and silver drop as dollar strengthens

Precious metal prices fell on Thursday, 06 August, 2009. Prices fell as the dollar strengthened as central banks in Europe continued to loosen their monetary policy.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Thursday, gold for August delivery ended at $960.70, lower by $3.5 (0.4%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. During intra day trading, it hit a high of $971.7. Last week, gold ended almost unchanged. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 8.2%.

Gold ended July, 2009 higher by 2.8%. Before this, for the second quarter, gold ended higher by 0.5%. The metal had gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (9.9%) since then.

On Thursday, Comex silver futures for September delivery fell 11.5 cents (0.8%) at $14.645 an ounce. Last week, silver ended higher by 0.5%.

Silver ended 2.7% higher for July, 2009. For second quarter, silver rose 4.5%. Year to date, silver has climbed 31.5% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

In the currency market on Thursday, the dollar index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's value, rose by almost 0.5%.

The Labor Department reported today those first-time claims for state unemployment benefits declined by 38,000 to 550,000 last week. The four-week average of new jobless claims dropped to 555,250, the lowest level since January.

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

At the MCX, gold prices for October delivery closed higher by Rs 3 (0.02%) at Rs 14,915 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 15,020 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,865 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for September delivery closed Rs 15 (0.06%) lower at Rs 23,372/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 23,350/kg and fell to a low of Rs 23,263/Kg during the day's trading.

Daily call - Aug 7 2009


Daily call - Aug 7 2009

India Strategy - Aug 7 2009


India Strategy - Aug 7 2009

Monsoon 66% below normal in week ended 5 August


Rainfall activity likely in central and northern areas in 2-3 days

The rainfall for the week-ended 5 August 2009 is reported to be 66% below normal at 23.5 millimeter (mm). Monsoon rains between 1 June 2009 to 4 August 2009 were 25% below normal.

According to reports, the average rainfall in July 2009 had been near normal but it had been below normal for northern states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab and Haryana even in July 2009.

A media report quoted a weather department official as saying that increase in rainfall activity is likely in central and adjoining northern plains in 2-3 days.

Crompton Greaves


We recommend a sell in Crompton Greaves from a short-term perspective. It is evident from the charts of Crompton Greaves that after bottoming in late March at Rs 99, it was on an intermediate-term up trend till July peak of Rs 320. However, the stock reversed direction encountering key resistance in the range of Rs 300 to Rs 320 and was on short-term down trend since then. A prolonged negative divergence in the weekly relative strength index also backs this trend reversal. The stock breached its 21 and 50-day moving averages as well as intermediate-term up trendline on August 6. The daily momentum indicators are on the verge of entering into negative territory. Considering that the penetration of up trendline and the presence of negative divergence, we are bearish on the stock from a short-term horizon. We anticipate the stock to decline further until it hits our price target of Rs 250 in the upcoming sessions. Traders with a short-term perspective can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 288.

via BL

IT Services


IT Services

Unitech


Unitech

India Equity Strategy


India Equity Strategy

India FMCG


India FMCG

SGX Nifty Live Update - Aug 7 2009


4,566.0 -19.0

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