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Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Satyam - rip off
via Business Standard
By entering into related-party deals without shareholder approval, the firm has done irreparable damage to India Inc's reputation.
Minority shareholders of Satyam Computer have every reason to feel short-changed. Without so much as by your leave, the management has decided to enter into related –party transactions using the company balance sheet.
Satyam will spend $1.3 billion to acquire the entire stake in Maytas Properties, an unlisted firm owned by the promoters of Satyam. It also plans to buy 51 per cent in Maytas Infrastructure, a listed firm in which the promoters of Satyam own 36 per cent, for around $300 million.
The Hyderabad-based tech major’s total disregard for corporate governance and shareholders is shocking -- the company does not plan to take the proposal to minority shareholders. Remember that Mr. Ramalinga Raju himself has a very small stake in the company .
It’s outrageous that the management is enriching the promoters of Satyam at the cost of other shareholders. Indeed, if the company believed that any acquisition in the IT space would not have made sense at this juncture as it would carry the same risks as the existing business, it could have returned the money to shareholders, done a buyback or simply left it on the balance sheet.
The management has tried to sell the India infrastructure and real estate stories; sure they may be opportunities but this is hardly the way to go about playing the property theme. It would have been more appropriate to take the shareholders into confidence especially when it is spending $1.3 billion (Rs 6,200 crore) for a real estate company even if it owns 245 million sq ft of land.
The management points out that DLF’s market capitalisation is Rs 47,250 crore and that the company has approximately 750 million sq ft of land. But the two can hardly be compared---DLF has an established track record and brand. For that matter, the market capitalisation of Unitech, which has close to 650 million sq ft of land, is Rs 6,234 crore.
The management is valuing Maytas Infrastructure, which has a market capitalisation of Rs 2,856 crore and has bagged orders worth $5.7 billion, at Rs 2,740 crore in line with SEBI guidelines. However, the deal will be earnings dilutive. It won’t be surprising if shareholders block the deal---Templeton has indicated that it will go to any lengths to stop this transaction from going through. The move is bound to shock foreign investors and will badly hurt India Inc’s reputation.
Satyam Computers - Top Mutual Fund Holdings
These funds will get whacked tomorrow along with a lot of other mutual funds.
Fund Name/ Amount Invested(Cr)
Fidelity India Special Situations 83.78
Fidelity Equity 41.21
HDFC Top 200 29.51
UTI Mastershare 28.91
HDFC Equity 27.93
UTI MEPUS 26.72
Fidelity International Opportunities 23.61
Birla Sun Life Equity 19.16
HDFC Growth 19.07
UTI Equity 18.24
Templeton India Equity Income 17.32
Reliance Equity Advantage Retail 15.27
Reliance Equity Advantage Inst 15.27
Reliance Regular Savings Equity 15.18
Franklin India Bluechip 14.58
HDFC LT Advantage 14.57
UTI Balanced 14.39
HDFC Taxsaver 13.36
Fidelity Tax Advantage 12.36
HDFC Long-term Equity 12.19
HDFC Capital Builder 12.15
Sundaram BNP Paribas Select Focus Inst 11.60
Sundaram BNP Paribas Select Focus Reg 11.60
Magnum Taxgain 11.25
HSBC Equity 10.93
UTI Master Plus '91 10.93
UTI Leadership Equity 10.93
Franklin India Prima Plus 10.92
Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity 10.84
Magnum MultiCap 10.11
Satyam robbery - buys Maytas
Satyam Computer Services, India's fourth-largest IT services provider, today said its board has approved the purchase of 51 per cent in Maytas Infra and buy out of Maytas Properties. The outflow for the deals would total around Rs 7,680 crore.
Family members of Satyam Chairman Ramalinga Raju sit on the boards of both these companies. Rama Raju Jr. is one of the key promoters of Maytas Properties, which develops urban infrastructure, and has been on its board since 2005.
B Teja Raju, the elder son of Ramalinga Raju, is the vice chairman of Maytas Infra -- a listed company which is engaged in infrastructure construction and asset development and employs over 3,000 people. For the second quarter ended September 30, 2008, the company registered a net profit of Rs 17 crore on a turnover of Rs 354 crore.
Satyam will acquire 100 per cent stake of Maytas Properties for $1.3 billion (around Rs 6,240 crore) and $0.3 billion (Rs 1,440 crore) for the 51 per cent stake in Maytas Infra.
Currently, Satyam has $1.15 billion (around Rs 5,500 crore) in cash and equivalents. It proposes to acquire 31 per cent in Maytas Infra from the promoters at a price of Rs 475 a share and make an open offer for additional 20 per cent since the company is listed on the domestic stock exchange. The open offer price has been approved at Rs 525 a share and is subject to change in line with Sebi guidance.
Ramalinga Raju, chairman and founder, Satyam, said: "This would de-risk the core business by bootstrapping a new business vertical in infrastructure. This market segment can mitigate the risk attributes to developed markets and traditional verticals that are likely to get impacted by the recessionary economy."
Analysts, however, are not elated with the news. Many analysts tracking Satyam are trying to understand the logic of the acquisition, and are wondering "if the shareholder money is being put to good use in a downturn".
RIL, ONGC lead 1.47% Sensex surge
Expectations that the US Federal Reserve will lay out emergency tools to dispel a recession at a policy meeting later in the day boosted the domestic bourses in late trade. The barometer index BSE Sensex breached the psychological 10,000 level at the fag end of the trading session, with index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) leading the late surge. The Sensex rose 144.59 points, or 1.47%, recovering 186.67 points from the day's low.
Expectations of further fiscal sops from the domestic government and on hopes of additional interest rate cuts by the central bank to shield the domestic economy from the global economic recession also aided the rally. Also supporting the sentiment was buying by foreign funds this month. Foreign funds bought a net Rs 239.40 crore of equities on Monday, 15 December 2008, with their inflow reaching Rs 2,181.70 crore this month.
From a recent low of 8,739.24 on 2 December 2008, the BSE Sensex has risen 1,237.74 points or 14.16% in the past nine trading sessions.
Factory output in India fell for the first time in more than 13 years in October 2008, reflecting a rapid economic slowdown, data released during trading hours on Friday, 12 December 2008, showed. The weak industrial output data for October 2008 has raised expectations of a suitable policy response from the government and the central bank to shield the domestic economy from the global economic recession. There is an anticipation of a second tranche of fiscal sops from the government and additional interest rate cuts by the central bank.
A preliminary data on advance tax payments also reflects strong signs of a slowdown in the economy. Barring mainly government-owned banks, private sector lenders and some of India's largest companies have reported dips in advance tax payments for the October to December 2008 quarter.
The stock market was volatile today, 16 December 2008. After moving between positive and negative zone in early trade, the market firmed up in mid-morning trade. It came off the higher level in early afternoon trade. The market slipped into the red in afternoon trade before regaining positive zone. Volatility ruled the roost in mid-afternoon trade. RIL led a rally in late trade. The Sensex swung 218.90 points between intraday high and low during the day.
European shares edged higher in morning trade on Tuesday, 16 December 2008, reversing early losses after euro zone manufacturing and services activity deteriorated by less than forecast in December 2008. Key benchmark indices in France, UK and Germany were up by between 0.7% to 1.42%.
Trading in US index futures indicated the Dow could rise 8 points at the opening bell. The Fed is widely seen cutting its benchmark rate by at least a half-a-percentage point to 0.5% at its policy meeting later in the day. As rates drop close to zero, investors will focus on whether the Fed gives clues on what further easing measures it will take to steer the US economy away from recession.
The severity of the global downturn set off by a US sub-prime mortgage market meltdown last year surprised policymakers, who have been running out of options after slashing rates to historic lows and rushing out massive stimulus plans.
Asian stocks moved into green from red earlier as expectations mounted that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to near zero and may lay out emergency tools to dispel a recession. Key benchmark indices in China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea were up by between 0.07% to 0.55%. However, Japan's Nikkei was down 1.12%.
The BSE 30-share Sensex was up 144.59 points, or 1.47%, to 9,976.98. At the day's low of 9,790.31, the Sensex fell 42.08 points in early trade. The Sensex rose 176.82 points at the day's high of 10,009.21 hit in late trade.
The Sensex hit the 10,000 mark after a period of more than a month. It had previously hit 10,000 level on 11 November 2008. The Sensex had last close above the 10,000 level on 10 November 2008.
The S&P CNX Nifty was up 60.55 points, or 2.03%, to 3,041.75.
The Sensex is down 10,310.01 points or 50.82% in the calendar year 2008 so far from its close of 20,286.99 on 31 December 2007. It is 11,229.79 points or 52.95% below its all-time high of 21,206.77 struck on 10 January 2008.
The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4,129 crore today, lower than Rs 4,381.42 crore on Monday, 15 December 2008.
Nifty December 2008 futures were at 3052.65, at a premium of 10.90 points as compared to the spot closing of 3041.75. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment surged to Rs 39,172.96 crore, from Rs 37,645.87 crore on Monday, 15 December 2008.
The market breadth was strong. On BSE, 1,866 shares rose as compared with 648 that declined. 67 shares remained unchanged.
The BSE Consumer Durables index (up 7.44%), the BSE PSU index (up 5.03%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 3.3%), the BSE HealthCare index (up 2.48%), the BSE IT index (up 2.38%), the BSE Realty index (up 2.34%), the BSE Bankex (up 2.29%), the BSE Power index (up 2.07%), the BSE Auto index (up 1.57%), the BSE FMCG index (up 1.52%) outperformed the Sensex.
The BSE Metal index (up 0.5%), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 0.93%), the BSE Teck index (up 1.4%), underperformed the Sensex.
India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 3.64% to Rs 1,386.60, on recent reports the government will shortly move the Bombay High Court requesting it to vacate an interim stay order that restrained RIL from selling gas from the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) basin to companies other than Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) and state-owned NTPC.
RIL on its part has already appealed against the order. The court's interim order in May 2007 had directed RIL not to create third party interest for the disputed volume of 40 mscmd (million standard cubic metres per day) of gas from the K-G basin.
Meanwhile, RIL's advance tax outgo declined 15.2% in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007. However, the figures are not comparable because of a huge minimum alternate tax payment of over Rs 400 crore that had boosted the Q3 December 2007 advance tax figure.
India's largest oil exploration firm by revenue ONGC jumped 6.07% after UK-listed Imperial Energy said its agreed takeover by ONGC was not at risk because Lehman Brothers held a miniscule stake. There were concerns that as Lehman Brothers is being shut due to bankruptcy, it is possible any shares it owns might not be tendered. But, Imperial Energy clarified that the investment bank only held 0.01% of Imperial's share capital. It was the major gainer from the Sensex pack.
Real estate shares rose on hopes housing demand will improve following a concessional home loan package unveiled by the state-run banks on Monday 15 December 2008. Housing Development & Infrastructure, Unitech and Indiabulls Real Estate rose by between 1.32% to 14.27%. PSU banks on Monday unveiled cheaper rates on some small home loans.
Banking shares rose on hopes further interest rate cuts by the central bank will boost lending growth. India's second largest private sector bank by net profit HDFC Bank rose 4.1% even as its advance tax payment fell 10.7% to Rs 250 crore in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007. India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 0.74% to Rs 421.55 off from the day's low of Rs 412.65 even as its advance tax payment declined 6% to Rs 470 crore in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007.
India's largest commercial bank State Bank of India (SBI) rose 2.8% on reports its advance tax payment rose 56% at Rs 1,700 crore in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007.
Among other PSU banks, Federal Bank, Bank of India Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, Allahabad Bank, rose by between 0.1% to 2.77%.
India's largest dedicated housing finance firm by operating income HDFC fell 4.13% after state-run banks cut home loan rates. HDFC will have to follow suit to retain market share but a reduction would eat into margins. PSU banks during trading hours on Monday, 15 December 2008, unveiled cheaper rates on some small home loans.
Meanwhile, HDFC's advance tax payment rose 29.76% to Rs 279 crore in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 6 December 2008, announced a 100-basis point cut in the repo rate and the reverse repo rate each. Repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends to commercial banks and reverse repo rate is the rate at which RBI accepts deposits from banks.
LKP Finance surged 4.91% to Rs 63 after its board approved buyback of shares at a price not exceeding Rs 90 per share, a 42.86% premium over the ruling market price.
Software firms rose after HCL Technologies, India's fifth largest IT major by sales, said it had signed contracts worth more than $1 billion since October 2008, assuaging investor fears of a sharp fall in outsourcing contracts. However stocks pared earlier strong gains. HCL Technologies surged 17.99%, after it said it signed over $1 billion in contracts in October-December 2008, the highest ever in a single quarter, helped by its purchase of British software firm Axon.
India's largest IT exporter by sales Tata Consultancy Services rose 2.37%. India's second largest IT exporter by sales Infosys rose 1.98%. Infosys Technologies had announced on Monday it secured a five year, multi-million dollar global sourcing deal from AstraZeneca. India's fourth largest IT exporter by sales Wipro rose 1.96%. India's third largest IT exporter by sales Satyam Computer Services rose 0.49%. IT firms derive more than 50% of their revenues from the US.
IT stocks shrugged off a firmer rupee. The Indian rupee rose on Tuesday as a broad dollar weakness and expectations of a Fed rate cut helped sentiment, but some demand for the US currency from oil companies averted a sharp rise. The partially convertible rupee was at 47.8100/8175 per dollar, off the day's high of 47.79, its strongest since 11 November 2008 and higher than Monday's close of 48.05/06. A stronger rupee affects IT firms negatively as they earn most of their revenues from exports.
Auto stocks were mixed amid hopes recent price cuts and lower interest rates would boost demand for vehicles which is mainly driven by finance. Hero Honda Motors and Tata Motors rose by between 2.2% to 4.33%.
But India's largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India fell 0.11%. India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra slipped 0.99% as its advance tax payment fell 93.3% to Rs 4 crore in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007.
Bosch declined 0.79% after the company announced a temporary partial shut down of its Naganathapura, Karnataka plant.
SKF India soared 6.71% after a block deal of 12.6 lakh shares, or 2.38% of the equity, was struck on the NSE at Rs 132.75 a share.
India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen and Toubro fell 1.23% to Rs 810.30, coming off the day's high of Rs 843.70 on worries a slowing economy will crimp orders. L&T's advance tax payment rose 73% to Rs 312 crore in Q3 December 2008 over Q3 December 2007.
Cement stocks rose on hopes government's efforts to give a boost to the realty sector will boost cement demand. ACC, Birla Corporation of India, Ambuja Cements, Grasim Industries rose by between 3.49% to 7.04%.
State-run oil marketing firms fell after Home Minister P Chidambaram said government could further cut retail prices of petrol and diesel if crude oil prices continue to fall. Indian Oil Corporation and HPCL lost by between 1.59% to 1.61%. While, BPCL rose 0.38%.
Airline stocks rose after domestic oil marketing companies cut jet fuel prices. Jet Airways, Kingfisher Airlines and SpiceJet rose by between 3.29% to 5.75%. Jet fuel constitute more than 50% of operating cost for the airliners.
Domestic oil marketing companies have reduced the price of jet fuel by 11% this fortnight to Rs 32,691.28 a kilolitre in New Delhi, the seventh consecutive cut since August 2008 when prices touched a record Rs 71,028.26 per kilolitre.
Compact Disc India soared 9.28% on its plan to diversify into gaming and publishing business.
GMR Infrastructure soared 3.52% on reports the company is close to buying an Indonesian coal mine firm for $80 million.
SRF rose 8.51% on its decision to acquire the engineering plastic business and industrial yarn business of promoter SRF Polymers for Rs 151.60 crore..
Deccan Chronicle Holdings soared 7.57% to Rs 55.40 extending gains for the sixth trading session in a row, after its board approved buy back of shares at a maximum price of Rs 100, a 80.5% premium over the ruling market price.
Suzlon Energy rose 6.53% after it agreed with Portugal's Martifer to a revised payment schedule to increase its stake in Germany's REpower.
Thomas Cook India was locked at 20% upper limit at Rs 54.80 on signing a pact with London based Indian Ocean Cruises for promoting its cruise service across Mauritius and India.
HT Media slipped 4.31% after 17.10 lakh shares, or 0.73% equity, changed hands in three different block deals on BSE and NSE at different prices.
US stocks fell on Monday, 15 December 2008, as New York state manufacturing data pointed to tumbling demand and more signs of economic weakness. The Dow Jones industrial average shed 65.15 points, or 0.75%, to end at 8,564.53. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 11.16 points, or 1.27%, to 868.57. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 32.38 points, or 2% to 1,508.34.
Reliance Natural Resources clocked the highest volume of 1.91 crore shares on BSE. Suzlon Energy (1.79 crore shares), Unitech (1.52 crore shares), Housing Development & Infrastructure (1.39 crore shares) and IFCI (1.13 crore shares) were the other volume toppers on BSE in that order.
Reliance Industries clocked the highest turnover of Rs 401.38 crore on BSE. Housing Development & Infrastructure (Rs 191.61 crore), State Bank of India (Rs 163.77 crore), Educomp Solutions (Rs 150.74 crore) and Reliance Infrastructure (Rs 131.15 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.
Market may drift lower
Reports that top companies and leading private sector lenders have reported a dip in advance tax payments in Q3 December 2008 may trigger profit taking after a recent solid surge in share prices. A subdued trend in Asian stocks may be another trigger for profit taking.
A fiscal stimulus package by the government, rate cuts by the central bank and buying by foreign funds has boosted the bourses in the past few days. From a recent low of 8,739.24 on 2 December 2008, the BSE Sensex jumped 1,093.15 points or 12.5% in the past eight trading sessions to 9,832.39 on Monday, 15 December 2008.
Barring mainly government-owned banks, private sector lenders and some of India’s largest companies have reported dips in advance tax payments for the October to December 2008 quarter.
Asian stocks fell on Tuesday, 16 December 2008, led by raw- materials companies and consumer-electronics makers, as the deepening global recession stifles the outlook for earnings.
US stocks fell on Monday, 15 December 2008, as New York state manufacturing data pointed to tumbling demand and more signs of economic weakness. The Dow Jones industrial average shed 65.15 points, or 0.75%, to end at 8,564.53. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 11.16 points, or 1.27%, to 868.57. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 32.38 points, or 2% to 1,508.34.
Investors worried about potential heavy losses ahead of results from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley after Merrill Lynch downgraded JPMorgan and forecast a fourth-quarter loss for the bank.
Pre Session Commentary - Dec 16 2008
Today we expect the market to open positive however later it may also turn volatile. The Asian markets have opened mixed and US markets closed in red. The sentiments across the broader markets may dwindle along with the southward movements in Asian markets. Yesterday the domestic markets pared off its early gains showing little sign of insecurity and skepticism amongst investors. The markets may be range bound today as there is hardly any news to drive the markets. As such investors may try to secure their positions with little risk.
On Monday, the markets opened with phenomenal positive gap. The sentiments across the Asian markets were bullish and the domestic trend retained its firmness till the end. Realty and Metal kept the rally high. The Advance tax numbers were also satisfactory and hence pumped more confidence amongst investors. Nifty after a long time broke the 3000 mark but later could not sustain the selling pressures. Sensex and Nifty gained by 1.47% and 2.05%. Realty, Metal, CD and PSU gained 5.53%, 5.19% 4.90% and 3.49% respectively. During the trading session we expect the market to be trading range bound with negative bias.
The BSE Sensex closed higher by 142.32 points at 9,832.39 and NSE Nifty ended up by 59.85 points at 2,981.20. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with good gains of 114.59 points and 128.13 points at 3,165.07 and 3,659.09 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 9,948.33 and intraday low of 9,749.29.
On Monday, the US markets closed in red. The fate of the three Auto makers still looms in the dark despite White House signaled that a relief plan would be on the way. Market participants were also skeptic about the FOMC rate decisions. On the other hand FOMC is looking to induce economic growth through rate cuts. As such, fed funds futures imply a reduction to the fed funds target rate is certain. There is currently a 66% implied probability the target rate will be cut to 0.25% from 1.00%. There is a 34% implied probability the rate will be cut to 0.5%. Crude oil futures for the month of January delivery fell $1.77 to $44.51 per barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange. The crude oil fell because traders were skeptic that the production cut by OPEC would hardly support the price of oil.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed lower with 65.15 points at 8,564.53 NASDAQ index lost 32.38 points at 1,508.34 and the S&P 500 (SPX) also closed lower by 11.16 points to close at 868.57 points.
Indian ADRs ended negative. In technology sector, Infosys lost by 1.40% and Wipro also dropped by 3.14% followed by Satyam that lost 0.87% and Patni Computers closing high by 1.20%. In banking sector ICICI Bank lost 2.14%, while HDFC Bank lost 2.30%. In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication declined by 5.25%, while MTNL inclined by 0.91%.
Today the major stock markets in Asia opened mixed. The Shanghai Composite is trading low by 36.28 at 1,928.15 Hang Seng is high by 169.67 points at 15,216.62. Further Japan''s Nikkei is low by 77.41 points at 8,587.25. South Korea’s Seoul Composite is high by 2.11 points at 1,160.30 and Singapore’s Strait Times is low by 0.99 points at 1,773.77.
The FIIs on Monday stood as net seller in equity and net buyer in debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 1527.00 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 876.50 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 1633.40 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 239.70 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs (106.40) Crore and Rs 636.80 Crore respectively.
On Monday Indian Rupee gained strength at 48.05/06 a dollar, 0.8% stronger than Friday''s close of 48.43/45. The phenomenal gain in the capital markets helped the Rupee gain strength despite huge demand for Dollars from the Oil refineries. Traders are optimistic about foreign capital inflow due to bullish sentiments prevailing now.
On BSE, total number of shares traded were 40.02 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 4,381.42 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 81.84 Crore and total turnover was Rs 11,077.60 Crore.
Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with 65792850 shares, Suzlon Energy with total volume traded 33194570 shares, followed by Reliance Petro with 29003569 shares, SAIL with 16260024 shares and DLF with 15485141 shares.
On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 8,28641 with a total turnover of Rs 11,461.31 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 10,09116 with a total turnover of Rs 10,568.19 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 9,95270 with a total turnover of Rs 14,810.87 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 72552 and notional turnover was Rs 805.49 Crore.
Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,910 and resistance at 3,055 and BSE Sensex has support at 9,665 and resistance at 9,998.
Asian markets open in negative
Asian stocks declined as indication of a deepening world recession raised concern profits will shrink at companies from coal manufacturers to electronics makers.
Posco fell more than 2.5% after the Nikkei newspaper said Toyota Motor will ask for discounted steel prices. Sony slipped more than 3.5% after Credit Suisse Group decreased its rating.
Japanese benchmark index Nikkei fell 379.65 points, or 4.61%, to trade at 8,615.52.
Hong Kong`s Hang Seng index declined 605.10 points, or 4.10%, to trade at 15,363.49.
China`s Shanghai Composite slipped 23.29 points, or 1.19%, to trade at 1,977.50.
Taiwan`s Taiex index decreased 172.74 points, or 3.85%, to trade at 4,654.01.
South Korea`s Kospi index dropped 52.42 points, or 4.75%, to trade at 1,156.24.
Singapore`s Straits Times slipped 45.14 points, or 2.59%, to trade at 1,785.48. (7.41 a.m., IST)
Market may remain volatile
After registering the gains of 150 points on Monday, the market is likely to exhibit weak trends on the back of a strong intra-day volatile moves. The meltdown US markets and weak Asian indices in morning trades also likely to put pressure on the domestic indices. On the upside, the Nifty could test around the 3020 level and may witness support around the 2950 level. The Sensex has a likely support at 9700 and may test higher levels of 10000.
US indices fell marginally on Monday, amid worries about the automakers, questions about the Bernard Madoff scandal and anticipation of Tuesday's rate-cut decision from the Federal Reserve, with the Dow Jones sliding over 65 points to close at 8565 while the Nasdaq slipping by 32 points at 1508.
Indian floats largely had a mixed outing on the US bourses. VSNL was the major loser and declined by above 5% followed by Wipro which lost 3.14% respectively. Dr Reddy, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Rediff, Infosys and Satyam ended with steady losses. Among the gainers Tata Motors, MTNL and Patni Computers ended with steady gains.
Crude oil prices in the global market moved down on Monday. The Nymex light crude oil for January series gained by $1.77 at $44.51 per barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for February delivery moved up by $16 to settle at $836.50 an ounce.
FIIs resume selling
Outflow of Rs 106.40 crore on 12 December 2008
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 106.40 crore on Friday, 12 December 2008, as against an inflow of Rs 333.30 crore on Thursday, 11 December 2008.
FII outflow of Rs 106.40 crore on 12 December 2008 was a result of gross purchases Rs 1527 and gross sales Rs 1633.40 crore. The BSE Sensex gained 44.61 points and 0.46% to 9,690.07 on that day.
FII inflow in December 2008 totaled Rs 1942.30 crore (till 12 December 2008). FII outflow reached Rs 52,794.90 crore in calendar 2008, so far, till 12 December 2008, as against an inflow of a huge Rs 71,562.90 crore in the corresponding period last year.
There are a total of 1589 foreign funds registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi).
Trading Calls - Dec 16 2008
Nifty (2981) Sup 2931 Res 3050
Buy Divi’s Lab (1267) SL 1245 Target 1310, 1320
Buy Titan (902) SL 893 Target 920, 925
Sell Crompton Greaves (147) SL 150 Target 141, 139
Sell Maruti (509) SL 514 Target 499, 497
Daily News Roundup - Dec 16 2008
Areva has signed an agreement with Nuclear Power Corporation of India to supply ~300tons of uranium annually. (ET)
DLF would invest Rs150bn over the next three years to develop various residential projects across the country in the range of Rs1.5-4mn. (BS)
Indian Hotels has announced the opening of a hotel under a new brand name called ‘Vivanta’ at Whitefield, Bangalore. (BS)
IOC is planning to buy a sugar mill and set up a refinery in Brazil to produce ethanol. (FE)
Alok Industries is in talks with PE funds to sell stake in its retail arm and two of its Mumbai realty projects. (BS)
Maruti Suzuki India has launched Green Cabs for urban motoring on the Maruti 800 AC Duo powered by LPG. (BL)
Corus Group has denied reports of merger with Tata Steel. (ET)
Slump in the commercial vehicles industry has led to Omax Autos delaying its plan to produce chassis for Tata Motors commercial vehicles. (BL)
Bajaj Auto has decided to shut down production at its Waluj plant near Aurangabad for 10 days. (BL)
Apollo Hospitals is looking to foray into drug manufacturing and early-stage clinical trials. (ET)
HCL Technologies expects to sign US$1bn worth of orders in the current quarter. (BL)
HCL Technologies has completed the £440mn buyout of UK-based Axon Group. (BL)
Reliance ADAG is close to acquiring a 50% stake in a UK based currency exchange and money transfer firm for an undisclosed amount. (ET)
Edelweiss raises Rs10bn for Reliance Industries through placement of NCDs. (BL)
Corporation Bank has raised upper tier-II bonds (Series (I) (1)) for Rs3bn. (BL)
M&M has slashed 900 jobs worldwide in the current fiscal. (FE)
SRF Ltd has acquired engineering plastics business and industrial yarn business from its group company SRF Polymers for Rs1.5bn. (BL)
HPCL is keen on substantially increasing its stake in MRPL from the present level of 16.97%. (BL)
AstraZeneca has awarded Infosys Technologies a multi-year, multi-million dollar outsourcing deal that covers a wide range of application maintenance services. (BL)
PTC India is set to tie up with power generation companies in a bid to diversify its business. (BS)
Tata Teleservices will write off Rs16.48bn more as it goes ahead with the third leg of its capital restructuring programme. (Mint)
NTPC expects to settle dispute with Power Machines, a Russian company over the supply of turbines for a coal-fired power plant in Barh, Bihar. (Mint)
Redington India has entered into a distributor agreement with Research in Motion Singapore Pte Ltd, for distribution of their range of products in India. (FE)
McNally Bharat Engineering has bagged orders wroth ~Rs870mn from Essar Constructions (India). (FE)
Retail chain Subhiksha to slow down its planned expansion by 10-12% for the remaining part of FY09. (FE)
Max Healthcare plans to acquire a hospital for Rs1bn. (ET)
Japanese consumer electronics major Sony has decided to exit from the CRT TV segment in India. (ET)
Overseas firms may not require the Government’s approval to acquire stake in local companies through warrants. (ET)
The telecom ministry is set to reject a proposal to impose an 'administrative tax' on successful bidders of 3G wireless frequencies.
Petroleum ministry is likely to seek an additional Rs300bn worth of oil bonds in FY09. (ET)
The Government is likely to announce a new package for rural roads by providing an additional Rs50bn under the government’s planned programme. (ET)
Vegetable oil imports increased 30% yoy in November 2008 as prices in the global market continued to decline. (BL)
Public sector oil companies have cut ATF prices by 11%. (BS)
Import of spot LNG declines on lower naphtha prices (BS)
India’s crude oil imports increased by over 71% yoy to US$60.34bn during Apr-Oct’08. (ET)
SEBI has hiked Mutual Fund’s borrowing limit to 40% of net assets. (ET)
RBI is in the process of forming a new technical committee for money and forex markets, consisting of representatives from various financial regulators. (ET)
India Advance Tax Numbers
Advance tax nos
| (Rs mn) | Q3 FY08 | Q3 FY09 | % change |
| SBI | 10,880 | 17,000 | 56.3 |
| BoI | 2,100 | 3,700 | 76.2 |
| BoB | 2,000 | 2,200 | 10.0 |
| Central Bank Of India | 730 | 1,630 | 123.3 |
| HDFC Bank | 2,800 | 2,500 | -10.7 |
| ICICI Bank | 5,000 | 4,700 | -6.0 |
| IndusInd Bank | 200 | 220 | 10.0 |
| HDFC | 2,150 | 2,790 | 29.8 |
| LIC Housing | 330 | 440 | 33.3 |
| Reliance Industries | 5,190 | 4,400 | -15.2 |
| L&T | 1,800 | 3,120 | 73.3 |
| Tata Chemicals | 570 | 830 | 45.6 |
| TCS | 1,080 | 1,290 | 19.4 |
| Tata Steel | 7,500 | 2,300 | -69.3 |
| Tata Sons | 1,450 | 400 | -72.4 |
| Tata Power | 250 | 280 | 12.0 |
| Ultratech | 1,400 | 650 | -53.6 |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | 600 | 40 | -93.3 |
Not better off...Markets are Mad off!
Truly great madness cannot be achieved without significant intelligence.
The madness in the market can never be explained. Of course, we always find reasons to coincide with our views. As if the woes in the market and the economy are not enough we now have individuals who could drive the most sane crazy. We are referring to Bernard Madoff, a former Nasdaq chairman who is now infamous for one of the largest swindle in Wall Street. A giant Ponzi scheme was in play where he took investments from clients, spend the money on himself, gave around little to look good and repaid clients out of other clients' accounts.
That's the real world if you please. Let's get back to our markets where the bulls may have regained some lost ground in the last couple of days. It remains to be seen whether the current momentum can be sustained, as the bulls still lack conviction.
For the day, we expect the market to open flat to weak. Global markets are mixed with no clear direction.
US markets fell amid worries about the automakers, questions about the Madoff scandal and anticipation of Tuesday's rate-cut decision from the Fed.
Meanwhile, back home, the advance tax numbers for a few top companies are out and as usual it’s a mixed bag. For now though, one may have to deal with lots of volatility in a narrow band. Investors should remain cautious. Fresh buying should be avoided. The market needs fresh impetus to move forward.
Among the major bulk deals, Credit Suisse sold over 0.5mn shares of Greenply Industries at an average price of Rs38. Goldman Sachs purchased over 6mn shares of IFCI at an average price of Rs23. Citigroup offloaded 2mn shares of S Kumars at an average price of Rs24.
The Dow Jones lost 0.8%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 1.3%, and the Nasdaq composite slid 2.1%.
Investors are also focused on the automakers since the Bush administration said last week that it might offer General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) and Chrysler bridge loans from the $700 billion bailout fund Congress set aside for Wall Street.
The Fed's policy-setting committee is meeting to discuss interest rates, with a decision due at late this evening. The central bank is widely expected to cut the fed funds rate by at least a half-percentage point to 0.5%.
The New York Empire State index, a regional manufacturing report, slipped to minus 25.8 in December from minus 25.4 in the previous month.
The Federal Reserve reported capacity utilization was 75.4% for November, down from a revised 76% in the previous month. Another report showed that homebuilders' confidence stayed at an all-time low in December due to the weak economy.
The dollar fell to an 8-week low versus the euro and hovered near a 13-year low against the yen.
US light crude oil for January delivery fell $1.77 to settle at $44.51. It hit a high as $50.05 in the morning.
Expectations are that OPEC will lower output when it meets in Algeria this week.
COMEX gold for February delivery gained $16 to settle at $836.50 an ounce.
A highly volatile session ended with smart gains as bulls managed to extend gains on Monday. The smart upswing was led by the realty, metals and oil & gas stocks. Also the broader indices were in demand, the mid-cap and the small-cap indices added over 3.5% each.
Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex ended at 9,832 adding 142 points and the NSE Nifty index ended 2,981 adding 60 points.
Market breath was positive, 1,921 stocks advanced against 569 declines, while, 80 stocks remained unchanged.
Among the BSE Sectoral indices, barring the BSE IT index all the other major indices ended with gains. The BSE Realty index led from the front, up 5.5%. Even the Mid-Cap and the Small-Cap indices added over 3.5% each.
Gitanjali Gems rallied over 7% to Rs73 after the company announced that the Board of Directors of the Company would meet on December 19, 2008, to consider the proposal of buy back of equity shares of the Company. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs78 and a low of Rs69 and recorded volumes of over 4,00,000 shares on BSE.
Shares of ICICI Bank surged by over 2% to Rs418 after the company announced that it may lower its interest rates over the next two to three weeks, stated reports. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs434 and a low of Rs413 and recorded volumes of over 24,00,000 shares on BSE.
Kamat Hotels’ gained by over 5% to Rs44 after 4.8% of equity changed hands in a single transaction. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs46.5 and a low of Rs42 and recorded volumes of over 6,00,000 shares on BSE.
Shares of Nava Bharat Ventures advanced by 2% to Rs125 after the company announced that it approved the buyback of equity shares from the existing shareholders from the open market; price cap has been pegged at Rs170 a share. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs131 and a low of Rs119 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.
Hindustan Zinc announced that it has further reduced the price of zinc by 1.7%.The price of zinc was lowered to Rs63,700 per metric ton. Lead prices were kept unchanged at Rs70,500 per ton.
The stock ended at Rs332 up by 2.5%. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs335 and a low of Rs325 and recorded volumes of over 28,000 shares on BSE.
With the FOMC meet and the IIP and manufacturing data to be released, market players back home would keep a close track of the events unfolding in the US. So, remain guarded even though the ongoing rally may prompt traders to reckon that the worst is near an end.
Television Eighteen India
We recommend a buy in Television Eighteen India (TV18) from a short-term trading perspective. It is clearly visible from the charts of TV18 that after encountering significant resistance around Rs 250 in august, it resumed its long-term downtrend and declined sharply. However, the stock found support at Rs 53, recording a 52-week low in November and reversed direction. A prolonged positive divergence in the daily relative strength index (RSI) supported this trend reversal. The stock has been on a short-term up trend from its 52-week low. While trending up, it breached its 21-day moving average recently. On December 15, the stock jumped by 8 per cent accompanied with heavy volume. The daily RSI is on the verge of entering the bullish zone and weekly RSI is recovering from the oversold territory. We are bullish on the stock from a short-term horizon. We expect the stock’s current rally to prolong until it hits our price target of Rs 92. Traders with short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 77.
Precious metals continue to shine
Gold and silver rise as dollar index sheds 1.6%
After dropping on last Friday, bullion metal prices rose on Monday, 15 December, 2008. Bullion metals rose due to the falling dollar. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.
On Monday, Comex Gold for February delivery rose $16 (2%) to close at $836.5 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the day, it reached a high of $843.7. Last week, gold gained 9%. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (19.1%) since then.
For the month of November, gold prices ended higher by 14%. Prior to this, for the month of October, gold had ended lower by 18%. It was the biggest percentage loss for gold since February, 1983.
This year, gold prices have lost 0.2% till date. Futures have averaged $878 in 2008. The dollar index has gained 8% this year. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.
On Monday, Comex silver futures for December delivery rose 39 cents (3.8%) to $10.62 an ounce. Last week, silver gained 80 cents (9%). For the month of November, silver prices had gained 5%. Till date, silver has lost 29% this year.
For the month of October, silver had slipped by 20%. Silver had ended month and quarter of September 2008 with a loss of 10%. For the second quarter, it had gained a paltry 1.4%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. The metal also had gained for seven straight years.
At the currency market on Monday, the dollar fell 1.6% today against a weighted basket of six major currencies. Last week, the greenback tumbled 4%, the most since September 1985.
Earlier this year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records this year for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the latest move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 1% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in eight steps.
Market is anticipating that Fed will cut down the fed fund rate to 0.5% in tomorrow's meeting.
Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.
At the MCX, gold prices for February delivery closed higher by Rs 91 (0.71%) at Rs 12,891 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 12,995 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 12,761 per 10 grams during the day's trading.
At the MCX, silver prices for March delivery closed Rs 272 (1.6%) higher at Rs 17,396/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 17,142/kg and rose to a high of Rs 17,570/Kg during the day's trading
Crude gives up earlier gains
Prices fall by more than a dollar after rising 8% earlier
Crude prices gave up earlier gains and finally closed more than a dollar lower on Monday, 15 December, 2008. Prices fell as traders anticipated that forthcoming production cut to be announced by OPEC will be insufficient to boost crude prices. Today's economic data once again reassured the fact that US economy is well into recession.
On Monday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for January delivery closed at $44.51/barrel (lower by $1.77 or 3.8%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the day, prices touched a high of $50.05. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 69.7% since then. On 5 Dec, 2008, prices touched a low of $40.5. Last week, prices ended higher by almost 13%. Prior to that, prices coughed up 25% in the week before that. That was the largest weekly loss for crude in past twenty five years. For this year in 2008, crude prices have dropped 47%.
For the month of November, crude prices ended lower by 19.7%. Before this, for the month of October, 2008, crude prices had ended lower by 32.6%, the biggest monthly drop since 1983.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ended meeting in Cairo last month without any decision on a production cut to restore crude prices. OPEC President and Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said he expects oil demand to decline from a month ago, and said the group would take necessary action on 17 December when it meets in Oran, Algeria.
he Federal Reserve reported on Monday, 15 December, 2008 that the output of the USA's factories, mines and utilities fell 0.6% in November on broad-based weakness across manufacturing industries. Output fell in all the major manufacturing sectors - autos, computers, machinery and metals.
As per the report, industrial output in US has fallen 5.5% in the past year, while factory output is down 7.3% compared with November 2007, the steepest year-over-year decline since 1980. In November, capacity utilization in industry fell to a five-year low of 75.4% from a revised 76%. For manufacturing, capacity utilization fell to a six-year low of 72.3% from 73.4%.
At the currency market on Monday, the dollar fell 1.6% today against a weighted basket of six major currencies. Last week, the greenback tumbled 4%, the most since September 1985.
For the third quarter of the year crude prices ended lower by 28%. This was the biggest quarterly drop since 1991. Before that, crude prices had gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. For the month of September, prices registered drop of 13%.
Against this background, January reformulated gasoline fell 3.8% to $1.0369 a gallon, and January heating oil slid 2.2% to $1.4601 a gallon.
January natural-gas futures rose 2% to $5.595 per million British thermal units.
At the MCX, crude oil for January delivery closed at Rs 2,340/barrel, lower by Rs 76 (3.1%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for December delivery closed at Rs 271.1/mmbtu, higher by Rs 3.5/mmbtu (1.3%).
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