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Wednesday, July 25, 2007



Sensex erases its lows but sheds 96 points at close

Weak global cues and negative breadth in yesterday's trades, led the market open at a lower today. Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex was down 83 points at the open and remained subdued as investors booked profits after the recent gains. Realty, capital goods and auto stocks took the major beating, but FMCG stocks bucked the trend on the gains in ITC. The index faltered under selling pressure by afternoon and slipped to the day's low of 15,573. While the market fluctuated sharply thereafter, the firm bullish sentiment and strong buying in heavyweights and FMCG stocks in the late trades helped the Sensex erase most of its losses. The Sensex finally ended the session by shedding 0.61% or 96 points at 15,699. The Nifty slipped by 0.69% or 32 points at 4,589.

The market breadth was negative, with the losers outpacing the gainers in the ratio of 2.01:1. Of the 2,685 stocks that traded on the BSE, 1,753 stocks declined, 862 stocks advanced and 70 stocks ended unchanged. Most of the sectoral indices ended in the red. The BSE Realty index dropped 2.90% at 8,132 followed by the BSE CG index (down 2.46% at 13,429) and the BSE Bankex index (down 2% at 5,023). However, the BSE FMCG index gained 3.91% at 1,951 and the BSE CD index (up 1.08% at 4,264).

Heavyweights led the fall in the Sensex. Satyam Computers slipped by 6.06% at Rs487, Ambuja Cement slumped by 4.50% at Rs128, ACC shed 4.24% at Rs1,071, Bajaj Auto lost 3.83% at Rs2,355, L&T was down 3.54% at Rs2,573 and Tata Motors tumbled by 2.86% at Rs726. Among the gainers ITC jumped 8.93% at Rs166, NTPC slipped 2.51% at Rs168, ONGC shed 2.05% at Rs934, Bharti Airtel fell by 1.57% at Rs947 and HUL was down 1.13% at Rs202, while Infosys and Reliance Energy ended with modest gains.

Over 1.56 crore IFCI shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Bellary Steel (1.44 crore shares), Allied Digital (88.27 lakh shares), Spice Telecommunication (71.15 lakh shares) and Suryachakra Power Corporation (60.90 lakh shares).

Reliance Energy registered a turnover of Rs317 crore on the BSE followed by Allied Digital (Rs300 crore), Housing Development & Infrastructure (Rs231 crore), Indiabulls Real Estate (Rs156 crore) and GMR Infrastructure (Rs147 crore).

Market snaps five-day rally

The market remained weak throughout the day’s trade, as correction set in after five straight days of rally. Weakness in global markets and unwinding of positions in derivatives ahead the expiry of July 2007 derivatives contracts tomorrow, 26 July 2007, played spoilsport. Volatility was high, which is likely to intensify tomorrow.

Stocks from cement, real estate, auto, IT sector came under intense selling pressure. However buying was seen in FMCG, oil & gas and consumer durable stocks.

Though most Asian and European markets were subdued to weak, Chinese market outperformed and it was at striking distance of all time high

The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 95.59 points to 15,699.33. It had opened lower at 15,711.87 but advanced to hit a high of 15,771.26 at 10:41 IST, on value buying coupled with short covering. It slumped to a low of 15,572.98 at 13:25 IST as selling intensified. At the day's lowest point, the Sensex had lost 222 points for the day.

Sensex oscillated 198.28 points today between a low of 15,572.98 and a high of 15,771.26

Prior to today’s fall, the Sensex had jumped 505.10 points in five trading sessions to 15,794.92 on Tuesday, 24 July 2007 from a recent low of 15,289.82 on 17 July 2007.

The NSE Nifty slipped 32.05 points to 4,588.70. The Nifty July 2007 futures settled at 4597, a premium of 8.30 points as compared to spot closing. The Nifty August 2007 futures settled at 4581.90, a discount of 6.80 points as compared to spot closing.

The market breadth was weak on BSE, with 1,735 shares declining as compared to 901 that advanced, while 68 remained unchanged.

The BSE Mid-Cap Index lost 57 points or 0.84% to 6,755.20, while the BSE Small-Cap Index slipped 97 points or 1.2% to 8,056.36.

The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 5,605 crore as against Rs 6,464.27 crore on Tuesday, 24 July 2007.

The NSE F&O turnover vaulted to record of Rs 72,365.46 crore as compared to Rs 64,281.92 crore on Tuesday, 24 July 2007.

Among the Sensex pack, 23 of the 30 constituents were in the red.

India’s largest cigarette manufacturer ITC surged 8.57% to Rs 165.30 on 57.99 lakh shares. It was the top gainer from the Sensex pack. The company announces Q1 June 2007 results on Friday, 27 July 2007. Foreign brokerage CLSA has raised its price target to Rs 184, and upgraded it to buy from underperformer.

Meanwhile, ITC is reportedly planning to sell home and personal-care products to sustain growth as new taxes and curbs on smoking threaten cigarette sales. The new products will be sold through the company's network of 6,400 web kiosks and 18 supermarkets.

India's largest FMCG firm in sales Hindustan Unilever rose 1.03% to Rs 201.50 on rumors the company is disposing off of its prime properties across India including its corporate office Lever House in Mumbai. The company is also selling some of its residential properties in Mumbai's suburbs. It may either develop its 30-acre property in Bangalore or sell it entirely. The company, however, denied these reports.

The BSE FMCG Index jumped 3.91% to 1,915.35, and was the top gainer from sectoral indices on BSE. Colgate Palmolive India (up 0.65% to Rs 371.50), and Dabur India (up 0.80% to Rs 101.35) were the other gainers from the FMCG pack.

NTPC, India’s largest power generation company, gained 2.35% Rs 167.45. The stock had risen 3.6% on Tuesday 24 July 2007 after it signed an MoU with Asian Development Bank for setting up a joint venture company to undertake renewable power generation. The company made this announcement after trading hours on Monday, 23 July 2007.

India’s largest oil explorer ONGC advanced 2.35% to Rs 937 after it today, 25 July 2007, reported an 11.9% growth in net profit to Rs 4610 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

IT pivotals were subdued after the rupee gradually approached the crucial 40-mark today, touching new nine-year high of 40.22 against the US currency in early trade. Fourth largest software services exporter Satyam Computers plunged 6.18% to Rs 486.25, on 9.20 lakh shares. It was the top loser from the Sensex pack.

Other IT pivotals, TCS (down 1.93% to Rs 1148), and Wipro (down 1.31% to Rs 499.85), also edged lower The BSE IT Index lost 1% at 4,906.79.

However, India's second-largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies gained 0.69% to Rs 1,992. The company announced after market hours today, that it was awarded a $250 million global BPO contract by Royal Philips Electronics.

Cement stocks plunged after their recent rally following reports today, 25 July 2007, that on Tuesday, 24 July 2007, MRTCP had ordered a probe into the business practices of 14 leading cement manufacturers.

Ambuja Cements (down 5% to Rs 127.70), ACC (down 3.83% to Rs 1075), Grasim (down 1.08% to Rs 2,990) Birla Corporation (down 5.82% to Rs 266.30), JK Cement, (down 0.58% to Rs 170), India Cement (down 9.01% to Rs 204), UltraTech Cement (down 4.94% to Rs 920) slipped.

India’s largest private sector company Reliance Industries (RIL) was down 0.19% to Rs 1,908.10, on 5.61 lakh shares. As per reports, RIL is planning to set up 4,000 mega watt gas-based power generation capacity at multiple locations at an investment of Rs 10,000 crore, in addition to a mega fertiliser plant at Kakinada in Andhra Pradesh.

Second largest bike maker Bajaj Auto slumped 3.61% to Rs 2,360 after it scheduled a separate meeting of equity shareholders and unsecured creditors on 18 August 2007 for considering and, if thought fit, approving with or without modification(s) the scheme of arrangement between the company, Bajaj Holdings & Investment & Bajaj Finserv and their respective shareholders & creditors.

HDFC, country’s largest housing finance company slipped 0.54% to Rs 1964. It posted 25.60% rise in net profit in Q1 June 2007 to Rs 372.81 crore over Q1 June 2006. Total operating income rose 46.60% to Rs 1830.39 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

Allied Digital Services settled at Rs 331.80 on BSE, a premium of 74.63% over the IPO price of Rs 190. The scrip debuted at Rs 332.50 on BSE, and touched a high of Rs 370.50 and a low of Rs 309.50 during the day. On BSE, 88.27 lakh shares changed hands on the counter. Allied Digital Services IPO ended on 5 July 2007, with 60.87 times subscription.

Real estate stocks, DLF (down 2.95% to Rs 637), Parsvnath Developers (down 3.75% to Rs 372), Sobha Developers (down 1.24% to Rs 917) and Unitech (down 3.62% to Rs 567.45), slipped on profit booking. The BSE Realty index lost 2.90% to 8,131.93, and was the top loser among the sectoral indices on BSE

The BSE Capital Goods Index declined 2.5% at 13,428.80, as capital goods stocks came under selling pressure after recent rally. The index has rallied 107.10% in the past one year from 6394.21 on 24 July 2006.

Suzlon Energy (down 6.74% to Rs 1400), Praj Industries (down 3.45% to Rs 212.40), L&T (down 3.21% to Rs 2582), and Bhel (down 2.26% to Rs 1794), declined from the Capital Goods index.

Godavari Fertilizers & Chemicals plunged 9% to Rs 121.40 whereas Coromandel Fertilisers rose 0.92% to Rs 86 after their boards approved the amalgamation scheme, with shareholders of GFCL entitled to receive 3 equity shares of Rs 2 each of the CFL for every 2 equity shares of Rs 10 each held in GFCL.

India's largest paper manufacturers Ballarpur Industries gained 3.71% to Rs 124 after announcing a major restructuring exercise involving the paper manufacturer buying back 40% of its equity capital after splitting each share with a face value of Rs 10 into five shares of Rs 2 each. Each shareholder would be allowed to sell 2 out of every 5 split shares back to the company at Rs 25 each. Small shareholders owning up to 1,000 pre-split shares would be allowed to surrender their entire holdings.

Ballarpur Industries also said the board approved hiving off its three units into separate entities and raise Rs 1,950 crore. Its units at Bhigwan, Ballarpur and Kamalapuram would be separated into a wholly-owned subsidiary BILT Graphic Paper Products (BGPPL).

The largest steel manufacturer in India, Steel Authority of India's (Sail) slipped 5.16% to Rs 152.55 after its net profit rose 10% to Rs 1,525.12 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006. Total income inched up 8.2% to Rs 8,346.40 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

Lanco Infratech plunged 10.62% to Rs 209.15 after the empowered group of ministers (E-GoM) headed by power minister Sushil Kumar Shinde, on Tuesday, 24 July 2007, decided to scrap the allotment of the 4,000- mega watt Sasan power project in Madhya Pradesh to the lowest bidder, the Lanco-Globeleq consortium. E-GoM declared Lanco’s bid as void ab-initio (invalid from the outset).

Mid-sized software firm Mindtree Consulting tumbled 8.54% to Rs 670.70 after it lowered its profit guidance for 2007-08 to $22.5-$22.6 million due to the appreciation of the rupee against the dollar.

Real-estate firm Mahindra Gesco Developers lost 3.4% to Rs 599 even as it reported a 260.9% surge in net profit to Rs 12.20 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

Pidilite Industries, India's biggest maker of adhesives, rose 5% to Rs 146 after its net profit advanced 53.03% to Rs 58 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006

Power generation equipment maker Thermax gained 4.91% to Rs 631.20 after it reported a 103% surge in net profit to Rs 56.01 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

Blue Star, maker of refrigeration and cooling systems, vaulted 11.33% to Rs 281 after it reported a 205% surge in net profit to Rs 22.32 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

Modern Steel rose 4.69% to Rs 89.30 after its board recommended 3 bonus shares for every 2 shares held. The mid-sized carbon and alloy steel maker had made the announcement after market hours yesterday, 24 July 2007.

Minda Industries advanced 2.54% to Rs 137.50 following reports that it is looking for acquisitions of Rs 200 crore in Europe to enhance its global presence and product portfolio.

Asahi India Glass slumped 8.18% to Rs 101 even as it posted 316% rise in net profit to Rs 20.72 crore in Q1 June 2007 over Q1 June 2006.

The market is likely to be extremely choppy tomorrow, 26 July 2007 as derivatives contracts expire. The total open interest in NSE’s futures and option (F&O) segment vaulted to an all-time record of Rs 1,02,247.50 crore on 25 July 2007, from Rs 94,285.34 crore on the previous day.

Asian indices edged lower today, 25 July 2007, after US blue-chips suffered their biggest single-day loss since March 2007. Japanese shares fell on declines in exporters such as Canon Inc. and Sony Corp., while in Australia, resources companies such as BHP Billiton led losses. Japan's Nikkei tumbled 0.80% at 17,858.75.

Hang Seng (down 0.47% at 23,362.18) and Singapore's Straits Times (down 0.86% at 3,633.54) declined.

However, Shanghai Composite jumped 2.70% to 4,323.96, almost kissing its all time high of 4,335.96

All the European markets were trading lower today, 26 July 2007, except FTSE 100, which was up 0.04%

Wall Street shares slumped sharply yesterday, 24 July 2007, on disappointing earnings reports and rising concerns about the mortgage market. The Dow Jones shed 226.47 points, or 1.62%, at 13,716.95. Twenty-nine of the 30 Dow components fell. Other major stock indicators also suffered steep declines. The Standard & Poor's 500 index shed 30.53 points, or 1.98%, to 1,511.04. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 50.72 points, or 1.89% at 2,639.86.

Crude oil fell for a fourth day in New York on speculation US gasoline production will be sufficient to meet late summer demand. Crude oil for September 2007 delivery declined as much as 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $73.10 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $73.22 in Singapore

Chinese Stock Guru detained

The self-style guru of Chinese stocks, who was detained by police recently for selling stock tips to subscribers, will stand trial on charges of conducting illegal business operations worth up to USD 1.31 million. The Municipal People's Procuratorate in the northeastern city of Changchun will lodge a lawsuit to the municipal people's intermediate court against Wang Xiujie, known to his clients as "Big Brother Leader 777", over running an unlicensed business. Wang is suspected of earning more than 10 million yuan (USD 1.31 million) by selling stock market advice to thousands of subscribers since February, Xinhua news agency reported. Boasting that his predictions had a 90 per cent accuracy rate, Wang labelled himself the "patron saint" of individual investors. His blog received more than 30 million hits as more speculators rushed to cash in on the bull market. Chinese law prohibits the provision of securities consultancy services without approval by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the stock market watchdog. It is still unclear when the court will start to handle the case.

Technicals, Futures Strategy - July 25 2007

Technicals, Futures Strategy - July 25 2007

Morning Call

Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Mkt. Outlook: Gap down opening expected.Long positions can be held on with SL of 4450 on Nifty spot.

Nifty at a Supp of 4593 and 4563 with resis at 4652 and 4678

Intra day calls: Buy Satyam above 507 with a TGT of 530 and a SL of 502

Buy ACC above 1143

F&O: Buy Andhra bank

Out House :

Markets at a support of 15656 & 15515 levels with resistance at 15858 & 15876 levels .

Markets to be very choppy and volatile maintain strict stop loss .

Buy : Kotakbank at dips

Buy : RIL & REL at dips

Buy : Cesc & NTPC at dips

Buy : Bhel & ABB at dips

Buy : Sail & Tisco

Buy : Aban & SKumar

Buy : DLF , Unitech & UBulls

Buy : Titan

Dark Horse : REL , IBulls , Bhel , IndiaInfo ,Sail , DLF , Titan & CESC

Bullet for the Day : Unitech , Aban & Asian with strict stop loss

Godawari Power & Ispat Q1FY08 Result Update (Buy)

Godawari Power & Ispat Q1FY08 Result Update (Buy)

Ambuja Cements Q2CY07 Result Update (Accumulatel)

Ambuja Cements Q2CY07 Result Update (Accumulatel)

Sasken Communications Technologies Q1FY08 Result Update (Sell)

Sasken Communications Technologies Q1FY08 Result Update (Sell)

Global cues see markets open low

Weakness in global indices and expiry pressures in the derivate segment may weigh on the sentiment. Action today is likely to be stock-specific. However, the mood of the market is expected to remain positive after yesterday's gains and surging FII inflows in domestic equities may help the local indices advance further. Among the key indices, the Nifty is likely target 4650 in near term and on breaching this level it is likely to target 4700, while the index has a key support at 4550. The Sensex has a likely support at 15480 and may face resistance at 15850.

Alstom Projects, Asahi India, Bank Of India, Bombay Dyeing, Bongaigaon Refinery, Canara Bank, Chambal Fertilizer, HDFC, Indus Ind Bank, IDFC, Marico, Matrix Lab, ONGC, Patel engineering, Patni Computers, PNB, RCF, Reliance Capital, SAIL, Sterlite Industries, Suzlon Energy, Thermax, Wockhardt and Yes Bank are expected to announce their earnings numbers.

Tuesday was the tough day for the US markets as disappointing earnings news from several blue chips, worries about a prolonged housing slump and a new round of credit market jitters contributed sell off and Dow Jones tumbled 223 points at 13720 and the Nasdaq sank about 51 points at 2640.

Sharp fall in US markets weighted heavely on the Indian floats trading on the US bourses. Patni computer was the major loser and tanked 4.77% while ICICI bank, MTNL, Infosys, Tata Motors and Rediff slumped over 3-4% each. Wipro, Satyam, Dr Reddy's, VSNL and HDFC Bank ended with losses of over 1% each.

Crude oil prices slipped marginally, with the Nymex light crude oil for Sepember delivery slipped $1.33 to close at $73.56 a barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for August series moved up by $3.30 to settle at $684.80 an ounce.

IVR Prime Urban Developers

IVR Prime Urban Developers (IVR) is a subsidiary of IVRCL Infrastructure (IVRCL). The company began its operations in 2001 and has developed residential apartments and villas as part of the Gachibowli Village Project, aggregating 1.95 million square feet (sq ft). Parent company IVRCL has constructed 15.4 million sq ft of residential and commercial projects. IVRCL holds 80% stake in IVR Prime and its holding will come down to 62.35% after the IPO.


  • On 21 June 2007, the land reserves measured approximately 2,478.85 acres, representing 75.45 million sq ft of saleable area in Hyderabad, Visakhapatnam, Chennai, Bangalore, Pune and Nodia. Of these reserves, 54.57% of land is in and around Chennai. The company plans to develop this land bank over the next five years.
  • As the focus is on construction of small houses, gestation period of about six-eight months is quite low.
  • Currently developing about 0.87 million sq-ft retail mall with multiplex cinema. This would include apparel store, restaurant outlets and entrainment centres as well as an IT park consisting of around 0.7 million sq-ft office tower above the retail mall. Plans include development of a business hotel of approximately 0.5 million sq ft.
  • Acquired land bank at an average cost of Rs 65 lakh- Rs 75 lakh per acre.


  • As the focus is on mass housing, the demand for the company’s houses are likely to be more vulnerable to increase in EMI on housing loans on account of rise in interest rates and real-state prices. Also, non-extension Section 80-IB (10) benefit beyond 31 March 2007 will indirectly result in hike in prices of mass housing, impacting its demand.
  • End March 2007, advances from customers amounted to Rs 16.09 crore compared with Rs 18.48 crore (including advances from contract clients), down by 13%. Advances represent just 11% of revenue in year ending March 2007 (FY 2007). The company’s inventories have also declined 39% to just Rs 59.41 crore. Lower inventories and advances reduce the near-term visibility of revenues.
  • Of the total land reserves (saleable area), 27.71% is under memoranda of understanding (MoU).


On 23 January 2007, Cushman & Wakefield had valued projects using net present value of the projects in the range of Rs 4998.4 crore and Rs 5524.6 crore after deducting the developer’s margin, the net present value of the land reserves was between Rs 2889.8 crore and Rs 3194 crore. The per share value after deducting the developer’s margin works out to Rs 450-Rs 498 per share. However, land reserves (saleable area) have increased 32% after the valuation report.

Consolidated FY 2007 EPS on post-issue equity works out to Rs 3.3. At the offer price band of Rs 510 - 600, the P/E range is 155-182.4, respectively. Comparable listed player according to size Ansal Properties is currently trading at 24.7 times its consolidated recurring FY 2007 earning. Nearest location-wise comparable company Sobha Developers is trading at 41.6 times its FY 2007 earning.

Given that it will take five years to develop the entire land bank and low near-term visibility of revenue due to low inventory and advance received, P/E is likely to come down to decent levels only in the long run

Finolex Cables Q1FY08 Result Update (Buy)

Finolex Cables Q1FY08 Result Update (Buy)

Intraday Calls

NIFTY (4621) Supp 4585 Res 4644

Buy Unitech (589) SL 584
Target 600, 602

Buy IDFC (128) SL 124
Target 134, 136

Sell Tata Motors (747) SL 753 Target 737, 734

Sell Glenmark (705) SL 711 Target 695, 693

Sell Lanco Infratech (234) SL 239 Target 225, 223

Global gloom, buy and boom

To improve the golden moment of opportunity, and catch the good that is within our reach, is the great art of life.

The global dip which we have been expecting for some time has finally arrived. Suddenly, optimistic voices so far will sing a different tune and conclude by adding that in the long run, the worries are less. Use these jolts to sit up and take a closer look at your portfolio. The handy cash which you have hopefully kept ready could be put in use more fruitfully today.

The main indices could crumble under the pressure coming from weak global markets. US stocks plunged yesterday amid nagging concerns about the downturn in the housing market and its impact on the American economy, especially consumer spending. A few disappointing earnings too led to the sell-off on Wall Street. As a result, equity markets across the world have fallen sharply.

We expect a weak opening in India too, purely because of the global meltdown. Otherwise, the trend here remains positive given the upsurge in foreign capital inflows as well as good results and benign interest rate scenario. A lot of stock-centric action will continue based on the type of news - negative or positive. Also, the intra-day volatility will escalate ahead of tomorrow's F&O expiry. Don't be surprised if sentiment actually turns around and the key indices may end in the green. If not today, there is a tomorrow.

Cement companies will be under pressure amid news that trade practices regulator MRTPC has ordered an investigation into an alleged price cartelisation by top 14 cement manufacturers. IT stocks will also be under the hammer as forward contracts in the foreign exchange market has turned into discounts from premium. The rupee yesterday hit a new nine-year peak of 40.27 per dollar. Having said that Infosys and Wipro could attract some attention amid media speculation about possible acquisitions by the two software giants.

Lanco Infratech and Reliance Energy will surely be in focus as the Government has rejected the former's bid for the 4000 MW Sasan Ultra Mega Power Project. REL was the second highest bidder for the Sasan project. Paper major BILT will be in action following the announcement of a restructuring, a stock split and share buyback. Hindustan Unilever is likely to gain amid reports that the FMCG major is planning to sell its properties in Mumbai and Bangalore. Allied Digital Services Ltd. will make its debut on the stock market. Spurred by the strong subscription, and going by the grey market indications, the stock is likely to double.

Worries about subprime mortgages and its fallout on the US economy resurfaced on Wall Street after Countrywide Financial, America's biggest mortgage lender, warned that credit problems are spreading beyond the already troubled subprime sector.

Disappointing earnings news from several blue chips contributed to the selloff. DuPont, the third-biggest US chemical maker, posted its steepest decline in two years after sliding home sales cut demand for paint and countertops.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 30.53 points, or 2%, to 1511.04, its steepest retreat since March 13. The Dow decreased 226.47 points, or 1.6%, to 13,716.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 50.72 points, or 1.9%, to 2639.86.

Famed bond fund manager Bill Gross added to credit market worries after he warned that the recent woes in the subprime mortgage market were spilling over to junk bonds and said that credit markets are facing a sudden liquidity crisis.

Treasury prices climbed as investors sought safe places for their money, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 4.91% from 4.95% late on Monday. The dollar fell against the euro and the yen.

European shares too closed sharply down. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index slid 1.3% to 390.01. The UK's FTSE 100 closed down 1.9% at 6,498.70, while the German DAX 30 slipped 1.7% to 7,806.79 and the French CAC-40 was down 1.7% at 5,907.47.

Latin American stocks dropped sharply as well. Mexico's IPC equity index slumped 706 points, or 2.2%, to end at 31,462.15. Brazil's Bovespa tumbled 2,242 points, or 3.4%, to shut shop at 55,794.57. The IPSA index in Chile lost 14 points, or 0.4%, to 3,378.29. The RTS index in Russia slid nearly 2% to 2050.

Most Asian markets, barring China, were down sharply this morning on the back of the overnight fall in US stocks. Lower-than-expected earnings from Countrywide Financial, the largest US mortgage provider, fueled concern that a housing slump is worsening in the world's largest economy.

Toyota Motor and Samsung Electronics led declines among companies with US exposure. BHP Billiton dropped in tandem with prices of metals and crude oil.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index lost 0.7% to 160.27 as of 9:55 a.m. in Tokyo, after rising 0.9% to a record yesterday. All 10 industry groups included in the index declined, with materials stocks such as BHP posting the steepest drop.

The Nikkei in Tokyo slid 199 points to 17,802, set for its biggest drop since June 8. Nissan Motor led exporters lower after the automaker reported its third consecutive drop in quarterly profit. Strength in the yen also hurt the sentiment. Markets open for trading elsewhere in the region declined.

The Hang Seng in Hong Kong was down 149 points to 23,323 while the Kospi in Seoul fell by 12 points to 1980 and the Straits Times in Singapore dropped 40 points to 3824.

An index of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME), including copper and nickel, lost 0.7% yesterday. Copper fell 0.8%, while nickel dropped 3.6%.

Meanwhile, crude oil for September delivery fell as much as 0.6% in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on speculation that US gasoline production will be sufficient to meet late summer demand. Futures were recently at $73.17, after a three-day, 3.1% loss.

Strong cues from the International markets and positive momentum from previous trading session boosted the key indices at open. After opening with a gap markets turned choppy ahead of F&O expiry as bulls faced stiff resistance at higher levels. Benchmark Sensex pared its gains as profit booking in the index heavyweights like Bharti, Tata Motors and Hindustan Unilever dragged the markets lower. However key indices managed to end on a flat note led by Capital Good and IT bellwethers Infosys and Satyam Computers.

BSE Capital Good and IT indexes were the major gainers. On the other hand Auto and Pharma stocks disappointed. Even the Mid-Cap and the Small Ca indexes finished a tad lower. Finally, BSE 30-share Sensex added 62 points to close at 15794. NSE-50 Nifty added 1 point to close at 4620.

HDIL opened at Rs538 on the National stocks Exchange today. The scrip was up by 11% to Rs559 hitting an intra-day high of Rs575 and a low of Rs535 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,00,000 shares on NSE. The IPO came in with a price band of Rs.430-500/share, and was priced at Rs.500/share, face value Rs.10.

Reliance Energy surged by over 7.5% to Rs769 after the company declared dividend of Rs5.3 per share. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs783 and a low of Rs718 and recorded volumes of over 49,00,000 shares on NSE.

ONGC advanced by 1% to Rs916 after the company plans a venture with Gail, for sale of Gas. The company also announced that it expects gas output from East Coast fields from 2012. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs925 and a low of Rs911 and recorded volumes of over 8,00,000 shares on NSE.

Reliance Industries ended flat at Rs1910. The company announced that it submitted its proposal to build the greenfield fertilizer plant in the country. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1931 and a low of Rs1908 and recorded volumes of over 23,00,000 shares on NSE.

RPG Cables lost by 2.6% to Rs51. The company announced that it secured order worth Rs330mn from MTNL. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs56 and a low of Rs51 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

NTPC surged over 3.5% to Rs163 after the company announced that it has signed a MoU with Asian Development Bank (ADB), a multilateral Development Financial Institution to establish a Private Ltd Company in joint venture initially among the Company and other strategic investors with equity shareholding of upto 50% by the Company. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs166 and a low of Rs158 and recorded volumes of over 94,00,00,000 shares on NSE.

ABG Shipyard jumped by over 6.5% to Rs487 after the company declared that it has secured $350mn order from Shipping PSL, Thailand. The scrip touched intra-day high of Rs510 and a low of Rs455 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

Capital Good stocks continued its upward trend led by gains in BHEL as the scrip was up by over 3.5% to Rs1831, L&T surged by 2% to Rs2670, ABB gained 1% to Rs1148. However, Gammon India lost 1.2% to Rs492.

Metal stocks gained momentum on back of high commodity prices. Jindal Stainless rallied by over 6% to Rs164, SAIL surged nearly by 3% to Rs160, Hindalco gained by 1% to Rs186, Tata Steel added 0.2% to Rs721 and JSW Steel marginally gains 0.6% to Rs735 after the company announced its Q1 result with net profit at Rs4.2bn (up 151%) and net sales at Rs21.91bn (up 37%).

Auto stocks were in reverse gear. M&M dropped by over 3.5% to Rs795, Hero Honda was down by 1.6% to Rs697 after the company’s Q1 net income fell 20% at Rs1.9bn and sales at Rs24.48bn (up 3.5%), Tata Motors slipped 2.5% to Rs747 and TVS motors edged lower by 0.7% to Rs62.

Realty stocks also witnessed selling pressure. DLF declined by 2.2% to Rs656 and Sobha was down by 1.2% to Rs928. On the other hand Unitech added 2% to Rs588.

Pharma stocks were a mixed bag. Aurobindo Pharma was down by 2.5% to Rs686, Cipla slipped 1.6% to Rs188 and Sun Pharma dropped 1.6% to Rs971. However, Dr Reddy’s lab gained 1% to Rs672 and Sterling Biotech added 1.4% to Rs202.

Results Today:

3i Infotech, ABG Shipyard, Alstom Projects, Bank of India, Bombay Dyeing, Canara Bank, CONCOR, Essar Oil, Euro Ceramics, Global Vectra, Hindustan Motors, HDFC, IndusInd Bank, IDFC, Marico, Matrix Labs, Nicholas Piramal, ONGC, Patel Engineering, Patni, PNB, RCF, Reliance Capital, Shringar Cinemas, SAIL, Sterlite Industries, Suzlon, Thermax, Thomas Cook, Usha Martin, Welspun India, Wockhardt and Yes Bank.

Fund Activity:

FIIs were net buyers of Rs10.71bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Tuesday. On the other hand, local institutions were net sellers at Rs3.11bn. In the F&O segment, FIIs were net sellers at Rs1.06bn.

On Monday, FIIs poured in Rs10.96bn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs485mn.

Major bulk Deals:

Kotak Mahindra has picked up Balasore Alloys; Goldman Sachs has purchased Eastern Silk; Goldman Sachs has bought Fedders Lloyd; Bear Stearns has sold Karuturi Networks; Kotak has bought Pioneer Embroideries while Merrill Lynch has sold the stock.

Insider Trades:

Oil Country Tubular Ltd: ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd has purchased from open market 6599100 equity shares of the company on 20th July, 2007.

Wockhardt Limited: Life Insurance Corporation of India has purchased from open market 124624 equity shares of the company on 16th July, 2007.

Lower Circuit:

Kothari Products, Prism Cement, IID Forgings and Empire industries.

Upper Circuit:

GVK Power, Amara Raja, Ganesh Forgings, Jaybharat Textile, TCI Industries, Bank of Rajasthan and BF Utilities.

Delivery Delight (Rising Price & Rising Delivery):

Apollo Tyres, Dabur India, Dr. Reddy's, Federal Bank, Infosys, Jaiprakash Associates and Nagarjuna Construction.

Abnormal Delivery:

Bombay Dyeing, Reliance Comunications, 3M India, Amtek Auto, Neyveli Lignite, BL Kashyap, PTC, MRPL, Voltas, Sterlite and VSNL.

Major News & Announcements:

S&P revises Infosys outlook to positive from stable

Kotak Mahindra Bank Q1 profit at Rs1.46bn (up 40%)

Kotak Bank plans to raise $300mn from fresh equity issue

Britannia Q1 profit at Rs361mn (up 19%), sales at Rs5.88bn (up 18.5%)

Gail, ONGC plans JV for sale of gas

ABG Shipyard secures $350mn order from Thai firm

Simplex Infrastructure to consider fund raising plan on 31st July

Castrol India Q2 net profit at Rs659.3mn up (31%), sales at Rs5.4bn (up 13.4%)

Hero Honda Q1 sales at Rs24.48bn (up 3.5%), net income (down 20%) at Rs1.9bn

JSW Steel Q1 net profit at Rs4.2bn (up 151%), net sales at Rs21.91bn (up 37%)

REL declares dividend of Rs5.3 per share

BILT to split each share into five and buy back 40% of its stock

Allsec Technologies Q1FY08 Result Update (Accumulate)

Allsec Technologies Q1FY08 Result Update (Accumulate)

Hero Honda Motors Q1FY08 Result Update (Hold)

Hero Honda Motors Q1FY08 Result Update (Hold)

Voltas, Siemens, Orchid Chemicals

Voltas, Siemens, Orchid Chemicals

Technicals, Futures - July 24 2007

Technicals, Futures - July 24 2007

EXCLUSIVE - Equibrain Report - July 24 2007

EXCLUSIVE - Equibrain Report - July 24 2007

Investor's Eye

Ashok Leyland
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Hold
Price target: Rs42
Current market price: Rs38.5

Put on Hold

Result highlights

  • Ashok Leyland's Q2 results are in line with our expectations. The top line has marked a growth of 13.9% to Rs1,621.1 crore due to a volume growth of 6.6% and a realisation growth of 6.8%, mainly due to higher bus sales.
  • The margins marked a 100-basis-point improvement to 9.5%, due to higher contribution of buses during the quarter, which usually enjoy higher margins. Consequently, the operating profits (excluding the foreign exchange [forex] gain) for the quarter grew by 27.4% to Rs154.5 crore.
  • The company maintains that the higher interest rates have affected the sales as it caused the prospective customers to defer their buying decisions. The company expects a revival in the second half of the year. For the full year, the company expects the truck industry to register a growth of about 5-6%, while it has set a target of selling 90,000+ vehicles for itself (earlier 100,000). We estimate an overall volume growth of 5% for the current year and a 13.8% growth for the next year.
  • Though the company's capacity expansions plans, better product mix, improving operating efficiencies and increasing presence in the overseas markets are some of the positives for the stock, we remain very cautious on industry's prospects considering weak freight rates, lesser availability of freight due to seasonal factors, reduction in auto loan disbursals by financiers and increasing instances of delinquencies. Consequently, we are downgrading our rating on the stock to a Hold.
  • A lower other income (due to dividend income received in Q4FY2007, higher interest costs due to additional working capital requirements and higher taxes led to a 5% drop in the net profits for the quarter to Rs71.9 crore. Taking into account the extraordinary items of Rs19.8 crore forex gain and a Rs3.5 crore voluntary retirement scheme expenses write-off, the profits after extraordinary items have marked a growth of 27.5% to Rs88.2 crore.
  • At the current market price of Rs38.5, the stock quotes at FY2009E price/earnings ratio of 9.4x and at an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 6.0x.

Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs1,210
Current market price:

Price target revised to Rs1,210

Result highlights

  • In Q1FY2008 ACC's volumes grew by 14% year on year (yoy) to 5.3 million metric tonne (MMT) on account of the incremental volumes from the Lakheri unit. Its cement realisations grew by 10% yoy to Rs3,390 per tonne. The blended realisations (including those from ready-mix concrete [RMC] and excluding the inter-segmental revenue) grew by 12% yoy to Rs3,524 per tonne. Consequently, the top line grew by a smart 28% yoy to Rs1,867 crore.
  • The operating expenditure grew by a sharp 32% yoy to Rs1,323.5 crore on the back of a 22% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the raw material (RM) cost and a 38% y-o-y growth in the other operating expenditure on account of higher packing and consultancy expenditure. The employee cost too jumped by 15% yoy to Rs93 crore.
  • Consequently, the operating profit growth was lower at 20% yoy to Rs544 crore whereas the operating profit margin contracted by 200 basis points to 29.1%.
  • Thanks to a higher interest income earned on surplus cash, the net interest component was positive at Rs2.27 crore. The depreciation provision was higher by 9% on a y-o-y basis at Rs63 crore on account of the expansion work at Lakheri and Kymore.
  • Backed by a higher other income component of Rs28 crore the net profit grew by a healthy 36% yoy to Rs351 crore.
  • As mentioned in our earlier reports, ACC's expansion programme is progressing as per schedule. An additional capacity of 0.90MMT as well as a 25-megawatt (MW) captive power plant (CPP) at Lakheri got operational in the current quarter. The company also augmented its grinding capacity at Kymore. Work on the 1.18MMT expanded capacity at Bargah and a 30MW power plant is in progress. The company is also setting up a greenfield project at Wadi. Thus at the end of CY2008, the company's capacity will increase to 24MMT.
  • Considering the price rise in the south, savings from higher blending as well as the removal of the government's price freeze, we are upgrading our CY2007 earnings per share (EPS) estimate by 16.6% to Rs82.8 and our CY2008 EPS estimate by 20.8% to Rs79.5 (assuming a drop of Rs5 in per bag of cement).
  • We believe that the free pricing scenario will augur well for the company on account of the latter's leverage to cement prices. The incremental capacity (achieved partly through higher blending) will not only provide the much needed volume growth but also result in cost savings. These coupled with the increased focus of the cement industry on cost efficiency (with the advent of Holcim) will drive the earnings of the company going forward. At the current market price of Rs1,117, the stock trades at 14x its CY2008 EPS. We are maintaining our Buy recommendation on the stock with an upgraded price target of Rs1,210 per share.

Union Bank of India
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs192
Current market price:

Price target revised to Rs192

Result highlights

  • Union Bank of India (UBI) recorded a 34.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in its profit after tax (PAT) to Rs225.1 crore in Q1FY2008. The growth was driven by an improvement in the overall operating performance.
  • The net interest income (NII) was up by 21.6% year on year (yoy) to Rs771.3 crore in the same quarter. The net interest margin (NIM) of the bank improved by 17 basis points on a y-o-y basis to 3.11% and remained stable on a sequential basis, as the bank did not raise any significant high-cost bulk deposits and shifted its portfolio towards high-yielding assets during the quarter.
  • The non-interest income increased by 40.2% yoy to Rs178 crore with the core fee income up 13.3% yoy and treasury income higher by 17.9% yoy.
  • Due to the revised AS-15 guidelines the bank had to provide Rs25 crore as provisions during Q1FY2008 and intends to provide Rs100 crore of the same for FY2008. The shortfall in provisions due to the new AS-15 guidelines is estimated at Rs350 crore which the bank intends to write off over the next five years.
  • The operating profit grew by 35.7% yoy and the core operating profit increased by 34.6% yoy, driven by a good net income growth and controlled operating expenses.
  • Provisions and contingencies rose by 31% yoy mainly due to higher non-performing asset (NPA) provisions and investment depreciation on IFCI bonds, which needed to be shifted from the "held to maturity" category to the "available for sale" category by June 2007, as per the directives of the Reserve Bank of India.
  • As a result of the higher provisioning and write-offs, the bank's NPA level improved to 0.78% from 0.98% in Q4FY2007 and the provision coverage rose to 72% from 68% in Q4FY2007. The management is confident of maintaining the improved asset quality going forward.
  • The bank intends to focus on high-yielding loans funded primarily by core deposits, unlike in the past when the bulk deposits funded a major part of its loan portfolio. This strategy should augur well for the bank's margins going forward. UBI's asset quality improved in Q1FY2008 and the management is confident of maintaining the same. We have introduced our FY2009 estimates and expect a 24.2% compounded annual growth in the bank's profits for the period FY2006-09. At the current market price of Rs154, the stock is quoting at 6x its FY2009E earnings per share (EPS), 2.9x pre-provision profits (PPP) and 1.2x book value (BV). We maintain a Buy on the stock with a revised price target of Rs192.

Elder Pharmaceuticals
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs508
Current market price:

Growth momentum continues

Result highlights

  • Elder Pharmaceuticals (Elder) maintained its growth momentum in Q1FY2008. The company’s net sales rose by 20.0% to Rs125.3 crore in Q1FY2008. The sales growth was in line with our expectations and was driven by the continued momentum in the company's star brands, the new products and line extensions launched over the past one year, and an increased offtake of antibiotics.
  • Elder reported a marginal drop of 30 basis points in its operating profit margin (OPM), which stood at 18.5% during the quarter. The contraction in the margin was largely on account of a 32.1% rise in the other expenditure incurred by the company. The increase in the other expenditure was mainly due to an increase in the marketing spend for the launch and ramp-up of the newly launched osteoporosis drug called Bonviva, which was in-licenced from Swiss drug maker, Roche.
  • Consequently, the company’s operating profit rose by 17.6% to Rs23.1 crore in Q1FY2008.
  • Elder’s net profit rose by 15.4% to Rs15.1 crore in Q1FY2008. The growth in the profit was marginally ahead of our estimate of Rs13 crore, despite an increase of 32% in the interest cost and a rise of 43% in the depreciation charge during the quarter. The net profit growth was aided by the substantially lower tax provision made during the quarter.
  • Elder’s performance has been consistent quarter after quarter. With strong brand building capability, a continuous spate of new in-licencing deals, launch of new products, and scale-up of business in the lifestyle, skin-care and paediatric areas, Elder’s growth prospects continue to remain bright for the years to come. The company has been aggressive in striking in-licencing deals and as the products from the deals signed over the past few quarters get launched, the growth momentum will accelerate.
  • At the current market price of Rs422, the stock is quoting at 10.5x its estimated FY2008 earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a price target of Rs508.

Alphageo India
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs517
Current market price:

Price target revised to Rs517

Result highlights

  • Alphageo India's (Alphageo) Q1FY2008 results are in line with expectations. The company reported a healthy growth of 84.7% in its revenues to Rs20.7 crore during the quarter.
  • The operating profit margin (OPM) declined from 51.6% in Q1FY2007 to 38.5% in Q1FY2008. The steep decline in the OPM was disappointing and below expectations. The margin contracted because of the under utilisation of the company's resources and unfavourable business mix (a higher contribution from the low-margin 2D work). The operating profit grew by 37.6% to Rs7.9 crore.
  • The savings in the interest expenses (lower by 14% to Rs0.9 crore compared with that in Q1FY2007) and a lower depreciation charge as a percentage of the sales (down to 1.6% as compared with 2.2% of the sales in Q1FY2007) enabled the company to report a 48.5% growth in its earnings to Rs2.4 crore. The same was in line with our estimate of Rs2.3 crore.
  • Generally, the second quarter is a lean season for the company. Especially since most of its contracts are concentrated in the tough terrains of the north east region where it is difficult to do any work during the monsoons. However, the situation is likely to be much better this fiscal. Work is expected to commence on the recently bagged contract from Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) in the Cauvery Basin (in south India) in August this year and the project would contribute to the company's revenues from Q2FY2008.
  • To factor in the higher than expected pressure on the margins in Q1, the earnings estimate for FY2008 has been revised downwards by 7%. We are also introducing our FY2009 estimates for the company in this note. We maintain our Buy call on the stock and are rolling over the price target to Rs517 (which is 10x FY2009E earnings).