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Monday, January 21, 2008

Greaves Cotton, ICICI Bank, NIIT Technologies, TRF

Greaves Cotton, ICICI Bank, NIIT Technologies, TRF

NSE Bulk Deal Watch - Jan 21 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
21-JAN-2008,AIRDECCAN,Deccan Aviation Limited,RELIANCE CAPITAL TRUSTEE CO LTD,BUY,1158118,208.52,-
21-JAN-2008,APTECHT,Aptech Limited,OHM STOCK BROKER PRIVATE LIMITED,BUY,500000,235.00,-
21-JAN-2008,AUROPHARMA,Aurobindo Pharma Ltd.,S.A.C. INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES LLC,BUY,334000,379.90,-
21-JAN-2008,JHS,JHS Svendgaard Laboratori,NANDA NIKHIL,BUY,64800,60.02,-
21-JAN-2008,ORCHIDCHEM,Orchid Chemicals Ltd.,BNP PARIBAS ARBITAGE,BUY,370000,206.83,-
21-JAN-2008,SARLAPOLY,Sarla Performance Fibers,KAUSHIK SHAH SHARES & SECURITIES PVT LTD,BUY,48437,175.03,-
21-JAN-2008,APTECHT,Aptech Limited,MINDSET TECHNOLOGIES PVT. LTD.,SELL,340000,234.97,-
21-JAN-2008,EDUCOMP,Educomp Solutions Limited,OPPENHEIMER DEVELOPING MARKETS FUND,SELL,96273,4472.39,-
21-JAN-2008,SARLAPOLY,Sarla Performance Fibers,SATIDHAM INDUSTRIES PVT. LTD,SELL,66000,175.05,-
21-JAN-2008,TATAMETALI,Tata Metaliks Ltd,VIJAY KUMAR,SELL,195032,139.53,-

1000 pt fall for ... DOW ?

Tuesday could bring a 1,000 point drop on the Dow, especially if markets in Asia and Europe repeat their Monday performances tomorrow. China's big Hang Seng index fell 5.5% to 23,818. The percentage drop in Shanghai was a bit less.

Europe markets have also been off over 5% most of the day with the German DAXX and French CAC 40 leading the way. Huge multinational Siemens (SI) has fallen as much as 7.3%. French financial services giant AXA (AXA) has been off almost 8%.

More here

Eveninger - Jan 21 2008

Eveninger - Jan 21 2008

Nifty January 2008 futures at discount

Turnover in F&O segment increases

Nifty January 2008 futures were at 5203, at discount of 5.80 points as compared to spot closing of 5208.80.

The NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 82,241.65 crore, which was higher than Rs 72,852.64 crore on Friday, 18 January 2008.

Reliance Communication January 2008 futures were at discount, at 604, compared to the spot closing of 613.35.

NTPC January 2008 futures were at discount, at 202.45, compared to the spot closing of 205.80.

State Bank of India January 2008 futures were at premium, at 2199.70, compared to the spot closing of 2196.15.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 496.5 points or 8.70% at 5208.80.

Valuenotes - uploading malware - dangerous site ??

Google seems to think so

The owners of Valuenotes should contact Google and find if there is a issue with their site! If you use their site, do let them know about it!

Lesson - When you read things like these , you should exit stocks immediately

As global investors dump stocks in a flight to safety that has whipped gold prices to a series of record highs, Indians are doing just the opposite.

In a nation that buys a third of the world's gold output, even bullion dealers are selling the stuff in hopes of a seventh year of stock market gains, a trend that could cause gold's record run to above $900 an ounce this year to stumble.

Far removed from gloomy global peers who are bracing for a US recession, Indians increasingly see limited upside for gold after last year's rise of more than 30 per cent, and are ready to shift more of their savings from jewellery toward a stock market that notched up over 40 per cent gains for three years running.

"I, myself, have sold gold and invested in the equity market," Pawan Choksi, a bullion dealer based in Ahmedabad, told Reuters. "I am restructuring my portfolio."

"Who will take a chance with gold at these levels?" he said. "Maybe there will be a correction."

Earlier this decade, most Indians preferred gold to a share market that they viewed as dominated by speculators and saddled with companies that had dubious earnings potential.

The shift, though slow, is already taking its toll on gold.

Imports by India fell as much as a fifth last year and are likely to tumble again this year if prices stay high, says Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association.

"Imports have virtually come to a standstill in the last 20 days because of the high prices," he told Reuters Tuesday.

Bullion analysts are, for the moment, maintaining a bullish stance, with many expecting the spot price to test the $1,000 an ounce watershed before year's end as the falling dollar and US economic doom and gloom add to gold's allure.

But the prospect of another 10 per cent gain is not luring many buyers into the jewellery shops in New Delhi's famous Karol Bagh, where some banners scream "Sale" at a time when demand usually is high because of marriages in January and February.

"Demand! Where is the demand?" says Ravi Sood, partner of Kidarsons Jewellers, his eyes sweeping over a near-empty shop as a lone customer huddled in a corner took apart some old jewellery to assess its value.

"Only those who are in desperate need because of a marriage in the family are buying," he said. "Even then they bring a bagful of old gold to exchange so that their budget does not go haywire."

Stock Market Appeal

Gold jewellery has a long tradition in India as an auspicious gift for Indian marriages, and a lifetime saving for brides, while the share market was regarded with some trepidation.

But a record-breaking run by India's stock market has elevated its profile in society, with new blue chips, huge share offerings and the rapid growth of mutual funds elevating investor confidence along the way.

Analysts say gains may be checked this year by the risk of a US recession and a slowdown in the influx of foreign funds, although most still see another positive year and there appears to be little waning in retail appetite.

Tuesday, the initial public offering of billionaire Anil Ambani's Reliance Power raised $3 billion, the most ever for an Indian IPO, in under 60 seconds.

Mutual fund holdings, seen as a good barometer of retail investment, are estimated to have accounted for 4.8 per cent of household financial savings in the fiscal year that ended last March, up from only 0.4 per cent two years earlier.

"Gone are the days when fly-by-night companies could float an initial public offering," said Prithvi Haldea, managing director of Prime Database, an expert on India's primary share market. "Almost every IPO in 2007 got listed at a premium."

Indian IPOs raised a record $8.3 billion last year and are expected to nearly double that this year, according to Thomson Financial data.

Gold, in comparison, looks a little less lustrous.

"Everybody and anybody is entering equities as penny stocks worth five to ten rupees are also rallying and going up to 20 to 40 rupees," said Krishna Kumar Nathani, managing director of, a local consultancy.

"You are getting 100 to 200 per cent in a month's time on shares," he said. "I have never made 100 per cent in gold in such a short time."

Via Reuters

Sensex - best performer to top loser!

It was atrocious day for the market with selling seen across the globe. Following the weak global cues and unwinding pressure in the domestic space displayed the free fall picture. Almost all the technical and psychological levels were broken with no support from anywhere. Realty, metals, power, and Auto?s and midcaps collapsed, ended with huge losses. Markets were halted for a while in this meltdown and resumed later but managed to recover 700 points from the days lows. Sensex crashed around 2060 points, the largest fall in a single day and tumbled to a low with high volatility as investors feared following weak global cues amid terror of the US recession. Midcap and small caps ended down over 10% which is recorded as worst performance in the life time. Today was biggest ever fall for the markets. All Asian markets ended in deep red and the European indices are witnessing a same trend.

Sensex ended down by 1408 points at 17605.35. Weighing on the Sensex were losses in Rel Energy (1776.05,-16 percent), ACC (727.6,-16 percent), Bajaj Auto (2064.3501,-15 percent), NTPC (205.65,-14 percent) and RCVL (612.9,-13 percent). Losses are restricted by gains in .

Edelweiss Capital came out with healthy 3rd quarter numbers. Reported net profit of Rs 95 cr for the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 31 cr in same quarter of last year. Net sales went up by 228% at Rs 323 cr Vs Rs 98.5 cr. Operating profit jumped at Rs 145 cr from Rs 49.8 cr and operating profit margin was down at 44.89% Vs 50.57%. I-banking segment grown by 80% YoY, institutional equities grown 120% YoY. The Investment Banking business has successfully closed 24 transactions in 9 months. 1/3 rd revenues from arbitrage, 18% from interest, 40% from fee and commission. The total average daily volumes for Edelweiss Securities have grown from Rs 1,800 cr in FY07 to Rs 4,500 cr for the current year. The stock ended down despite good performance in the quarter number which was struck in the panic selling market.

Mumbai-based apparel maker Kewal Kiran Clothing Company engaged in manufacturing and marketing of ready to wear apparels. The company?s brands include Killer, Lawman, and Integriti. Today reported 40% increase in net profit to Rs 5 cr for the quarter ended December 2007 as against Rs 3.6 cr in the same quarter, last year. Net sales for the quarter climbed 35.44% to Rs 42.74 cr as compared to Rs 31.56 cr in the corresponding quarter, a year ago. Total income surged 34% to Rs 45 cr as against Rs 33.52 cr in the same quarter, a year ago. The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter rose 40.48% to Rs 4.13 as compared with December 2006 quarter. Recently the company has raised Rs 81 cr for its capital expenditure requirements which involve setting up new manufacturing facilities, expansion of distribution network by opening additional exclusive outlets, building corporate office and to meet general corporate purposes. This quarter numbers were not in line the market expectation despite good sales seen in the killer brand KKCL could not maintain the margins at both EBIDTA and Net profits levels. Stock traded at lower circuit levels.

Technically Speaking: Markets traded extremely weak with heavy bouts of selling seen throughout the day. Indices made intraday high of 18,919 and low of 16,951. Turnover for the day was around Rs 9000 cr. The breath has been in favor of Declines Vs Advances.

Our Sensex target of 17,600 was met today which we mentioned past one week. Sensex is heading towards 15,700. On the higher side resistance likely to be at 17,800 and 18,100, however 17,150 is a support level. We advice better to be in cash for time being.

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Jan 21 2008

Deal DateScrip CodeScrip NameClient NameDeal Type *QuantityPrice **
21/1/2008530427CHOKSI IMAGNIRMAL INVESMENTSS2000027.64
21/1/2008500147FLAP PROD EQMINGEL ZAV TUSCANOS26000464.44
21/1/2008512493GARNET INTLNICKUNJ G SHAHB10170191.29
21/1/2008530343GENUS POWERTALMA CHEMICALS INDS. PVT. LTD.B300000727.00
21/1/2008530343GENUS POWERPRISM IMPEX PVT LTDS100000752.00
21/1/2008532857GLORY POLYMAVI IMPEX LTDB31320096.99
21/1/2008532758KEW INDUSTRSUDIP A PATELB7025046.64
21/1/2008531500RAJESH EXPOTJM FINANCIAL MF . .B331520711.06
21/1/2008500357RAMA PAPERSUSAMMA MATHEWS7185027.14
21/1/2008526407RIT PRO INDSANJEEV ARORAB70000134.14
21/1/2008526407RIT PRO INDSANJEEV ARORAS57135134.14
21/1/2008532765USHER AGROMAVI INVESTMENT FUND LTDB200000218.49
18/1/2008500045BELLA STE ALSETU SECURITIES PVT LTDB19250029.92
18/1/2008500045BELLA STE ALSETU SECURITIES PVT LTDS16999809.93
18/1/2008532927ECLERXMATRIX EQUITRADE PVT LTDB95199422.68
18/1/2008532927ECLERXMATRIX EQUITRADE PVT LTDS95199423.04
18/1/2008532414IKF TECHNOSETU SECURITIES PVT LTDS207000215.20
18/1/2008532606PAREKH ALUMKAMLESH KANUNGOS140000235.00
18/1/2008532606PAREKH ALUMDIMPLE KANUNGOS83000235.00
18/1/2008531646RFL INTERNATHEENA NAYAN DOSHIB350002.76
18/1/2008512499SHALIMAR PROENCA FINLEASE LTD.B1761903.05
17/1/2008500045BELLA STE ALSETU SECURITIES PVT LTDB17150029.59
17/1/2008517973DMC INTERSFS INFINITE LTDS2000035.83
17/1/2008532414IKF TECHNOSETU SECURITIES PVT LTDB213500215.15
16/1/2008531190A V COTTEX IMONA MONGAB3300032.15
16/1/2008531223ANJANI SYNTHASHA B AGRAWALB7000055.50
16/1/2008531863GEEKAY FINANC R RAJESH NAIRB4502572.30

US Housing Bubble, Is India a Bubble too ?

It is perhaps a good time to read, reflect and understand

Now, lets think about India, Are we in a India Bubble ? Is the India bubble going to burst too ? Real Estate bubble, homes without infrastructure, how are we insulated, isn't our domestic growth powered by the money that IT folks get and are pumping?

Sound off, leave a comment !

Also, do leave your comment on What did you do today ?

(PS: I am not bearish on the markets)


It was one trading day that investors will take a long time to forget. Fears of recession in the US becoming a reality saw global indices tumble. The worst to get affected in this mayhem was the Indian market.

The bears went berserk on Dalal Street creating panic to such an extent that trading in Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark Sensex was halted briefly.

The moment trading resumed, the index recovered some lost ground. According to dealers, “government funds are trying to bring in some stability to the already crumbling market.”

Sensex saw the biggest absolute fall in history by falling 2062 points intra-day. It closed at 17,605.35, down 1408.35 points or 7.4 per cent. It fell to a low of 16,951.50.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty plummeted 8.7 per cent or 497 points to close at 5208.80. It slumped to a low of 4977.10.

NTPC, down 15.07%, was the worst hit, followed by Reliance Energy (down 14.79%), ACC (14.53%), ACC (14.53%), Reliance Communications (13.84%), Grasim Industries (13.19%) and DLF (9.62%).

Bucking the trend, Satyam Computer posted nearly 5 per cent gains after the IT major reported a 29 per cent rise in consolidated third-quarter net profit on continued growth in sales and said it expects a 45-45.2 per cent increase in revenue growth in 2008 over 2007.

The company’s net profit for its fiscal third quarter ended December 31 rose to Rs 434 crore from Rs 337 crore reported a year earlier

It's the biggest folks!

Date Close Prv Cls Chg % Chg

21-Jan-08 17605.40 19013.70 (1,408.35) (7.4)

18-May-06 11391.43 12217.81 (826.38) (6.8)

17-Dec-07 19261.35 20030.83 (769.48) (3.8)

18-Oct-07 17998.39 18715.80 (717.43) (3.8)

18-Jan-08 19013.70 19700.80 (687.12) (3.5)

Saare Zameen Par

After having a deep negative opening for the day, the markets tumbled down further with heavy losses. It was the worst trading session the investors would have seen in their lifetime history. For the first time ever, markets broke all the important technical and psychological levels and witnessed an intraday fall of more then 2000 points. BSE was shut for a brief period of time, however it resumed trading immediately. Later Sensex recovered 700 points from its day''s low. Among major sectors, Metal, Oil & Gas, Realty and Capital Goods suffered badly. Even the Small Caps and Mid Caps were the most hit as they faced heavy selling pressure across the counters. The BSE Sensex touched an intraday high of 18,919.57 and low of 16,951.50. On the closing bell, the Sensex ended lower by 1,408.35 points at 17,605.35 and NSE Nifty fell by 496.50 points to close at 5,208.8. The BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap closed with heavy losses of 1,011.72 points and 1,248.79 points at 7,881.99 and 10,911.66 respectively.

BSE Metal index stood as the top loser by losing 2295.42 points to close at 14,963.38. Scrips that slipped are Jindal Steel (85.28%) on the back of stock split, Ispat Inds (27.13%), Maharashtra Seamless (23.04%), Sesa Goa (22.18%), Jindal Stainless (17.84%) and Gujarat NRE (16.08%).

BSE Oil & Gas index also slipped by 1505.58 points to close at 11,089.33. Scrips that dropped are Essar Oil (31.55%), RNRL (23.21%), IOC (18.11%), RPL (17.53%), Aban Offshore (14.48%) and HPCL (12.61%).

BSE Capital Goods index fell by 1245.81 points to close at 17,087.82. Scrips that plunged are Suzlon Energy (80.75%) due to stock split, Praj. Inds (19.10%), Lakshmi Machine (16.40%), Kir Oil Eng (15.83%).

BSE Bankex index slipped by 790.40 points to close at 10,582.01. Scrips that fell are Cent. Bank Of Punjab (18.69%), Andhra bank (14.29%), Kotak Bank (14.28%).

BSE Auto index dropped by 483.21 points to close at 4,664.53 as Ashok Leyland (20.41%), Escorts Ltd (20.30%), TVS Motors (19.64%).

Bears strike back, drag Sensex to17,600

The Sensex recorded one of the biggest crash of the year and nose-dived over 2,000 points or 12% during intra-day trades, making India the worst performing markets in the Asian region. The heavy downfall in the market was triggered mainly by the weakness in global indices and the offloading of equities by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in the past few sessions in the domestic market. The mood was extremely bearish since the early trades. After resuming 94 points lower over its last close at 18,920, the Sensex witnessed a major sell-off as the trading progressed. A major correction in metal, realty, oil, public sector and power stocks saw the Sensex plunge deep into the red in late trades and slump below the 17,000 mark to touch the intra-day low of 16,951, down 12.16%. The Sensex, however, recovered towards the close and pared some of its losses to finally sign off the session with a loss of 7.41% or 1,408 points at 17,605. The Nifty crumbled 8.61% or 491 points to close at 5,214.

All the sectoral indices were hammered. Among the major losers, the BSE Metal Index dropped by 13.30%, the BSE Realty Index shed 12.83%, the BSE Oil & Gas Index declined by 11.95%, the BSE Power index slipped 10.94% and the BSE PSU index fell 10.67%. In the broader market, losers outnumbered gainers by 19.26:1. Of the 2,811 stocks traded 2,657 stocks declined, 139 stocks advanced and 15 stocks remained unchanged.

All the 30 stocks in the Sensex basket ended with steep losses. Among the major losers Reliance Energy tanked 16.38% at Rs1,776, ACC slumped 15.85% at Rs728, Bajaj Auto tumbled 15.21% at Rs2,064, NTPC crashed 14.15% at Rs206 and Reliance Communications lost 12.71% at Rs613. Hindalco at Rs166, DLF at Rs904, Grasim at Rs3,025, Reliance Industries at Rs2,544 and Tata Motors at Rs654 also crashed by 9-10% each. Other front-line stocks also shed around 5-8% each.

Over 2.75 crore RNRL shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Ispat Industries (2.55 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (2.46 crore shares), Tata Teleservices (1.52 crore shares) and IFCI (1.48 crore shares).

Valuewise, Reliance Industries registered a turnover of Rs663 crore followed by RNRL (Rs491 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs466 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs456 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs340 crore).

Carnage on the street; Sensex tanks 1408 points

The market extended losses for sixth straight day in highly volatile trade led by setback in stocks across the globe. Both the niche indices cracked below key physcological levels. The BSE Sensex registered its biggest single day point fall.

The sharp fall was triggered by setback in global markets, selling by foreign institutional investors and margin calls after a proposed US stimulus package failed to soothe fears the US will tip into recession.

The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 1408.35 points or 7.41% to 17,605.35, its biggest single-day point fall on a closing basis. The market came-off lower level after trading was briefly halted after the steep fall. The Sensex hit a low of 16,951.50 in late-afternoon trade. At the day’s low, the Sensex had declined 2062.22 points, the biggest intra-day fall in Sensex ever.

On a closing basis, Sensex’s previous biggest single day point fall was on 18 May 2006, when it had plunged 826 points or 6.75% to 11,391 spooked by a government circular on taxing investment gains and heavy FII selling.

The broader CNX S&P Nifty declined 496.50 or 8.70% to 5,208.80. It had slipped to low of 4,977.10 in late trade. Nifty January 2008 futures settled at 5,203, a discount of 5.80 points as compared to spot closing of 5,208.80

With today’s fall, the BSE Sensex has eroded 3601.42 points or 16.98% from a record high of 21,206.77 hit on 10 January 2008.

Small and mid-cap stocks were battered brutally. The BSE Mid-Cap index tumbled 1011.72 points or 11.38% to 7,881.99 while BSE Small-Cap index slipped 1248.79 points or 10.27% to 10,911.66. Both these indices underperformed the Sensex

All the sectoral indices on BSE registered steep losses. BSE FMCG Index (down 5.62% at 2,173.21), Bankex (down 6.95% to 10,582.01), BSE Capital Goods index (down 6.80% at 17,087.82), BSE IT index (down 5.73% to 3,573.25), outperformed the Sensex.

BSE Power Index (down 10.94% at 3,828.81), BSE Auto index (down 9.39% at 4,664.53) and BSE Realty (down 12.83% to 10,479.87), BSE Metal index (down 13.30% at 14,963.38), BSE PSU index (down 10.67% to 8,629.40), BSE Health Care index (down 8.03% at 3,701.62), BSE Oil and Gas index (down 11.95% at 11,089.33), BSE Consumer Durables index (down 8.43% to 5,351.63), BSE TecK index (down 7.58% to 3,214.54), underperformed the Sensex.

The market breadth was extremely weak. On BSE, 2658 a declined as compared to just 140 that rose. A total of 14 shares remained unchanged.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 9299 crore as compared to Rs 8,801.38 crore on Friday, 18 January 2008.

Turnover in NSE’s futures & options segment advanced to Rs 82241.65 crore by as compared to Rs 72852.64 crore on Friday, 18 January 2008.

All the members of 30-share BSE Sensex pack settled with losses.

India’s second biggest power utility company in terms of net profit Reliance Energy plunged 16.38% to Rs 1,776.05. It was the top loser from Sensex pack.

ACC (down 14.53% to Rs 739), NTPC (down 15.20% to Rs 203.15), Reliance Communications (down 13.84% to Rs 605), DLF (down 10.15% to Rs 903.70), Hindalco Industries (down 10.32% to Rs 165.95) and Bajaj Auto (down 15.21% to Rs 2064.35), collapsed.

ICICI Bank, the country’s largest private sector bank in terms of net profit, declined 5.80% to Rs 1,173.20. ICICI Bank reported 35.2% rise in net profit to Rs 1230.21 crore on 32.50% rise in operating income to Rs 10338.36 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006. The results were announced on Saturday, 19 January 2008. Meanwhile, ICICI Securities (I-Sec), the broking and investment-banking arm of ICICI Bank, is set to hit the market in six months.

India’a largest private sector firm by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries was down 9.12% to Rs 2,544.20.

India’s largest pharma company in terms of sales, Ranbaxy Laboratories which held firm in early trade, also succumbed to selling pressure later in a weak market. It declined 6.06% to Rs 363.20. The company today said it had settled terms with GlaxoSmithKline on a possible patent litigation for a generic version of the firm's Imitrex tablets. Under the terms of the settlement, Ranbaxy may sell a generic version, sumatriptan succinate tablets, in multiple strengths in the United States from December 2008, it said in a statement to the BSE.

India’s largest telecom services provider in terms of market capitalisation, Bharti Airtel slipped 5.22% to Rs 828.25. It signed a $150 million six-year agreement with global IT major IBM for implementation of IT systems to launch differentiated services in broadband, media, IPTV and DTH segments.

India’s fourth largest software services exporter, Satyam Computers advanced 4.67% to Rs 390, and was the lone gainer from 30-member Sensex pack. The company reported 28.58% rise in net profit to Rs 433.63 crore on 35.58% rise in total income to Rs 2266.05 crore in Q2 September 2007 over Q2 September 2006.

Satyam Computer for fiscal 2008, under US GAAP, expects revenue between $2,119 million and $ 2,122 million, implying a growth rate of 45% to 45.2% over fiscal 2007. Seperately, the company said it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Bridge Strategy Group, a Chicago based management consulting firm.

India's biggest oil explorer in terms of market capitalisation Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) slipped 7.89% to Rs 1,114.05. The company posted 6.46% fall in net profit to Rs 4366.54 on 1.75% fall in total income to Rs 15983.81 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006.

Among side counters, Wire & Wireless India (down 31% to Rs 51.20), IVR Prime (down 29.16% to Rs 255.35), Parsvnath Developers (down 28.85% to Rs 292.80), Essar Oil (down 31.55% to Rs 185.75), Bajaj Hindustan (down 28.08% to Rs 197.85), and Sasken Communications (down 28.54% to Rs 197.40), tumbled.

Reliance pack dominated turnover charts on BSE. Reliance Industries was the top traded counter on BSE with total turnover of Rs 663.60 crore followed by Reliance Natural Resources (Rs 491.70 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs 466.40 crore), Reliance Petroleum (Rs 456.80 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs 340.50 crore).

Reliance Natural Resources was the volume topper on BSE with total volume of 2.75 crore shares followed by Ispat Industries (2.55 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (2.47 crore shares), Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) (1.53 crore shares) and IFCI (1.49 crore shares).

Power Finance Corporation declined 10% to Rs 208.75. It reported 50% rise in net profit to Rs 320.49 on 36.70% rise in operating income to Rs 1300.56 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006.

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services slipped 12.11% to Rs 278.05 following its plans to sell 1.09 crore shares at Rs 380 per share to TPG-Axon (Mauritius) and Standard Chartered Private Equity (Mauritius).

Idea Cellular tumbled 11.53% to Rs 120.25. It posted 108.6% spurt in net profit to Rs 237.19 in on 48.80% rise in total income to Rs 1708.09 crore in Q3 December 2007 over Q3 December 2006.

Indian markets today underperformed their global peers. European markets, which opened after Indian markets, were in red. Key indices in United Kingdom (down 2.17% to 5,773.80), France (down 2.88% to 4,945.5) and Germany (down 3.06% to 7,090.38) declined.

Asian markets extended early losses. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (down 5.49% at 23,818.86), South Korea's Seoul Composite (down 2.95% at 1,683.56), Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted (down 0.91% at 8,110.20), China’s Shanghai Composite (down 5.14% to 4,914.43), and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index (down 3.86% to 13,325.98), edged lower

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 59.91 points, or 0.49%, at 12,099.30, its lowest close in 10 months. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 8.06 points, or 0.6%, at 1,325.19, a 16-month low. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 6.88 points, or 0.29%, at 2,340.02, a 10-month low.

US president George Bush on Friday, 18 January 2008, called for a package of tax cuts and other measures totaling around 1% of US gross domestic product, or up to $150 billion, after weak recent reports on employment, retail sales, factory activity, and housing construction this month suggested the United States -- the world's largest economy --may be heading into recession. Under consideration in the package announced by Bush are ideas like tax rebates, incentives for businesses, and extensions of unemployment insurance.

Top 10 Nifty Losers

Symbol % Change




WWIL -31.05




SASKEN -28.82


HDIL -27.98

What did you ....

do today ?

Did you buy anything ?

Panic sold ?

Got caught over leveraged ?

Leave a comment (if you have recovered from the shock ;-) )

Market may extend losses on weak global cues

Market is likely to extend Friday’s steep losses as share markets in the United States and Asia continued to slide amid worries over a possible US recession. In Asia, key benchmark indices in Hong Kong, China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan were down by between 0.3% to 3.5%.

US stocks tumbled for a fourth day on Friday, 18 January 2008, to close out the worst week for the S&P 500 in five years on worry that a White House effort to boost the economy may not prevent a recession. Financial firms absorbed the brunt of the selling, again, on worries over spreading subprime mortgage fallout, and were joined in the rout by telecommunications companies after Sprint Nextel announced big subscriber losses and thousands of layoffs.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 59.91 points, or 0.49%, at 12,099.30, its lowest close in 10 months. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 8.06 points, or 0.6%, at 1,325.19, a 16-month low. The Nasdaq Composite Index lost 6.88 points, or 0.29%, at 2,340.02, a 10-month low.

Bush called for a package of tax cuts and other measures totaling around 1% of US gross domestic product, or up to $150 billion, after weak recent reports on employment, retail sales, factory activity, and housing construction this month suggested the United States -- the world's largest economy --may be heading into recession. Under consideration in the package announced by Bush are ideas like tax rebates, incentives for businesses, and extensions of unemployment insurance.

Huge writedown by Citigroup and Merrill Lynch on its portfolio of investments in high-risk sub-prime mortgages and weak US economic data spooked US market last week.

FIIs have pressed heavy sales in the recent trading sessions. As per provisional data, FIIs sold shares worth a net Rs 2146.92 crore on Friday. FIIs pulled out a net Rs 4465.60 crore in two trading sessions from 16 January 2008 and 17 January 2008.

FIIs sold index futures worth Rs 2455 crore on Friday. They sold index options worth a net Rs 138.42 crore. FIIs sold individual stock futures worth Rs 373.76 crore on that day.

Domestic funds bought shares worth a net Rs 695.56 crore on Friday, as per provisional data,

The recent sharp fall on the domestic bourses may trigger margin calls. This, in turn, may accelerate the decline. A margin call is triggered when shares that an investor had bought with borrowed money decrease in value. If the investor is not able to put up additional margin, the broker/financer will resort to sale of shares.

Sensex plunged 687.12 points or 3.49% to 19,013.70 on Friday, 18 January 2008, led by fall in index heavyweight Reliance Industries. The barometer index lost 1,813.75 points or 8.71% to 19,013.70 in the week ended Friday, 18 January 2008.

On the flip side, collections from new funds offers (NFOs) of mutual funds may provide support to the market at declines as the funds deploy the money in the market. A total of 10 new funds offer are currently on which include Reliance Natural Resources Fund, AIG Infrastructure & Economic Reforms Fund, HDFC Infrastructure Fund, ICICI Prudential Fusion Fund – Series III, among others.

South-bound journey may continue

The Asian indices are also currently fell over 2-3% in the ongoing trades. FII's remaining net sellers in equities is likely to exert more pressure on the local metal stocks. Among the key domestic indices, the Nifty could test the recent low of 5840 on the downside and a break below could see it decline to 5550, while on the upside the index has resistances at 6100 and 6110. The Sensex has a likely support at 18693 and may face resistance at 19200. Abhishek Industries, Bharat Forge, Centurian Bank of Punjab, Finolex Industries, Glenmark, HDFC Bank, Indiabulls Real Estate, Jaindal Stainless, Kotak Bank, Neyelly Lignite, NIIT, ONGC, satyam Computers, Shaw Wallace and Titan Industries are expected to announce their numbers.

US indices witnessed a fall on Friday on speculations that President Bush's economic plan won't ease US economy to enter into recession. While the Dow Jones dropped 60 points at 12099, the Nasdaq lost seven points to close at 2340.

Indian ADRs took a cue from the falling local markets, however, few managed to end in positive territory on the US bourses. Among the major laggards MTNL & wipro tanked over 3-4%, while Infosys, Dr Reddy's Lab, Tata Motors and ICICI Bank eased around 1% each. However, Styam Bucked the trend and gained 4.83% while, HDFC Bank, VSNL and Rediff gained 1-2% each.

Crude oil prices gained marginally in the international market, with the Nymex light crude oil for February delivery moved up by 44 cents to close at $90.57 per barrel. In the commodity space, the Comex gold for February delivery gained $1.10 to settle at $880.50 an ounce.

A dismal week for US Market

Tax relief and recession warding plans by the President fail to cheer market

Barring Monday, 14 January, 2008, US Market closed lower on all the days of the week that ended on Friday, 18 January, 2008. While IBM earnings tried to give the week a good start, market ran out of gas in the subsequent days following concerns about the global economy and business spending.

Disappointing earning reports from Citigroup and Intel also made sentiments extremely shaky during the week. Weak retail sales data for December 2007 from the Commerce Department raised concerns about the health of the economy and thus increased hopes for aggressive Fed action at its meeting later this month.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 507 points for the week. Tech - heavy Nasdaq lost 100 points. S&P 500 lost 75.8 points. Percentage wise, S&P 500 suffered the maximum losses.

On Monday, 14 January, 2008, with the help of IBM, stocks ended higher but mixed. IBM announced revenues and earnings ahead of analysts' expectations. IBM also said that the results were driven by "strong operational performance in Asia, Europe and emerging countries."

On Tuesday, 15 January, dismal earnings report from Citigroup and a disappointing retail data from the Commerce Department sent stocks bleeding for the entire day and market erased all of Monday’s gains. The Dow Jones industrial Average finally ended the day with a loss of 278 points and Nasdaq Composite Index, finished lower by 60 points.

Citigroup reported a net loss of $9.83 billion on a 70% decline in revenues. The loss was led by a $18.1 billion write-down in subprime exposure and fixed income markets as well as a $4.1 billion increase in credit cost, primarily due to "higher current and estimated losses on consumer loans." The company also cut its dividend by 40%.

The negative sentiment continued through Wednesday, 16 January, 2008 and Thursday, 17 January, 2008 when the market digested disappointing results from technology bellwether Intel and Merrill Lynch. Intel reported lower than expected fourth quarter revenues and earnings, and tempered its guidance for the first quarter. Merrill Lynch posted a net loss from continuing operations of $10.3 billion during the quarter.

After opening higher Friday, 18 January, 2008 due to strong results from Dow component General Electric, the stock market turned lower during the day. Concerns about a possible recession and the troubled state of bond insurers Ambac Financial and MBIA continued to weigh on sentiment and canceled the rally effort.

Dow lost 60 points on Friday despite a plan presented by President Bush that called for roughly $145 billion worth of tax relief and other incentives to boost the slowing economy and help stave off a recession.

On the economic front during the week, Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sales fell 0.4% (against expected figure of 0.1%) in December, the first decline in six months. The figure capped the weakest year since 2002. But a government report showed core inflation trends remained steady. The Philadelphia Fed report showed manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region contracted more than expected in January.

Among other major news in the market during the week, Wall Street Journal reported that Boeing is going to announce more delays in the delivery of the 787 Dreamliner.

Executive Summary

For the week, indices registered substantial losses for the fourth consecutive week. DJIx and S&P 500 closed down by 4.2% and 5.4% respectively. Nasdaq shed 4.1%.

While IBM earnings tried to give the week a good start, disappointing reports from Intel and Merrill Lynch let waves of negative sentiment across the market for the rest of the week. Even tax relief plans and certain incentives announced by the President of US to stave of a recession failed to cheer market.

For the year, Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down by 8.8%, 11.8% and 9.8% respectively.

Morning Call - Jan 21 2008

Market Grape Wine :

In House :

Nifty at a supp of 5640 and 5600 with resis at 5780 and 5825

Mkt to open on a weak note with a pull back expected in the second half which cld take Nifty to


F&O: Sell HLL below 210 with a TGT of 203 and a SL of 216

Sell HCLTECH below 265 with a TGT of 254 and a SL of 270

Out House :

Markets at a support of 18515 & 18339 levels with resistance at 19229 & 19393 levels .

Buy : RIL & REL at dips

Buy : SBIN at dips

Buy : NTPC at dips

Buy : Balrampur & BajajHind at dips

Buy : Primesecurity at dips

Buy : IBUllsreal at dips

Buy : Adhunik at dips

Buy : ITC & HLL

Dark Horse : Adlab , RIL , Adhunik , GujNRE , JpAsso , ICICIBANK & SBIN

Its Just Another Maniac Monday : Book profits at all higher levels .

Grey Market - J Kumar, Emaar, Future Capital

Future Capital Holdings 700 to 765 550 to 570

Reliance Power 405 to 450 260 to 270

J. Kumar Infraprojects 110 to 120 15 to 17

Cords Cable Ind. 125 to 135 18 to 20

Emaar MGF 725 to 850 350 to 370

Down Under…can Indian bulls bounce back?

Make your own recovery the first priority in your life.

Over the weekend, hopes were that the bulls would fight back the way Indian cricket team has done Down Under. But any expectations of a quick bounce back on Monday morning have more or less been laid to rest thanks to the weakness in most Asian markets. Technically, the market looks pretty weak. Further stop losses could get triggered as key support levels are being broken. The short-term trend appears lower with lots of volatility.

Today, we expect another weak opening on the back of last week's super selloff. Bulls have got their backs against the wall. There may be some recovery on an intra-day basis or even on a closing basis. Avoid getting trapped in temporary rallies, unless you are a long-term investor.

Sona Koyo group is set to announce an acquisition later in the day. In the coming days, Patel Engineering is also expected to announce a placement. Core Projects is another company where some activity is expected in the coming weeks.

FIIs have been selling heavily over the past few sessions. This trend has to change for the sentiment to turn around. Domestic institutions may not be able to support the market in the face of mounting global concerns, especially with regard to the US economy.

Further weakness is on the cards given the lingering fears about an impending recession in the US and its implications for the global economy. One should stay on the sidelines and wait for the undertone to improve. Global trends will continue to determine market direction here. What could re-invigorate world equity markets is an immediate stimulus package from Bush government and a possible 100-basis-point cut from the Fed.

Reduction in local interest rates, which is likely to pan out over the next few months, would also act as a catalyst for the bulls' come back. One should brace for a really bumpy ride over the next few days (exactly how many is difficult to predict). Having said that, those who like the 'buy-and-hold' strategy, should see this as a golden opportunity to pick up quality stocks for the long term.

FIIs were net sellers of Rs21.47bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Friday while the local institutions were net buyers of Rs6.96bn.

In the F&O segment, FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs29.83bn.

On Thursday, FIIs were net sellers of Rs21.86bn in the cash segment.

US stocks slipped on Friday. The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.5%, according to early tallies, and ended at a fresh 10-month low. The broader S&P 500 index lost 0.6% and ended at a 15-month low. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.3% and ended at a 14-month low.

The Russell 2000 small-cap index fell 1.1% and closed at an 18-month low. The Russell is now down more than 20% from its all-time high hit last July, the technical definition of a bear market.

Treasury prices were little changed and the dollar was mixed versus other major currencies. US light crude oil for February delivery rose 44 cents to settle at $90.57 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for February delivery rose $1.20 to settle at $881.70 an ounce.

The S &P 500 declined 5.4% last week to 1,325.19, the lowest level since September 2006. The benchmark for US equities has tumbled 9.8% this year, its worst-ever start. The Dow dropped 4% to 12,099.30, extending its 2008 slump to 8.8%. The Nasdaq lost 4.1% to 2,340.02.

The Russell 2000 Index dropped 4.5% to 673.18. The small-company index's 21% retreat from a July record puts it in a bear market for the first time since 2002.

US stocks initially bounced back on Friday morning. But the gains proved short-lived as the financial sector again tumbled and investors shrugged off the Bush Administration's proposed fiscal stimulus plan.

President Bush acknowledged that there are areas of real concern in the US economy and urged Congress to pass a fiscal stimulus package quickly. He said it should be quick and temporary, include tax incentives for small businesses and tax relief for Americans which should be equivalent to about 1% of GDP, or about $140bn to $150bn.

Speaking after Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the Bush administration estimates that the stimulus package would mean around half a million new jobs being created.

While relief in the form of both fiscal and monetary policy would be a positive, the details of any package and the extent of future rate cuts remain unknown, and therefore Bush's speech did not seem to reassure markets on Friday.

Shares in London finished flat. The FTSE 100 in London closed nearly unchanged at 5,901.70. But, other European markets lost ground. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index lost 1.1% to 327.53. The French CAC-40 dropped 1.3% to 5,092.40 while the German DAX 30 fell 1.3% to 7,314.17.

Most Asian stock markets are down sharply this morning. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost slid 2.2% to 143.52 at 11:16 a.m. in Tokyo, adding to a 7% decline this year. All 10 industry groups fell and all Asian benchmarks retreated.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 3.4% to 13,395.28, while the broader Topix slid 3%.

Bulls hope to recoil!

Last trading session of the week turned out to be the nastiest one as bears looked to be in absolute control. Bulls were unable to show up on the bourse even for a moment on Friday as weakness in the US markets on back of a possible recession setting in the economy in combination with panic selling all over dragged the benchmark Sensex nearly 800 points intra-day.

A swift recovery in the Asian markets was overlooked as retail investors which were active in the previous round of up run faced margin calls. Markets further slid during last hour as the psychological Nifty 5,800 mark was breached as a lot of delivery based selling was witnessed in the index heavyweights like Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and L&T.

Finally, 30-share Sensex closed at 19,013 plunging 687 points and Nifty lost 207 points to close at 5,705.

Wipro slipped 2% to Rs454. The company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs8.54bn for the fiscal third quarter ended December 31, 2007 as against Rs8.14bn in the previous quarter. This translates into a sequential growth of almost 5% and posted net sales of Rs53.4bn versus Rs47.85bn in the second quarter, representing a QoQ growth of 11.6%. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs464 and a low of Rs442 and recorded volumes of over 7,00,000 shares on NSE.

ITC was down 2.3% to Rs212. The company declared its Q3 profit at Rs8.31bn (up 15.8%) and net sales at Rs34.58bn (up 9.2%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs220 and a low of Rs208 and recorded volumes of over 88,00,000 shares on NSE.

HDFC slipped 1.5% to Rs2810. The company announced its Q3 net profit at Rs6.49bn (up 82%) and revenue at Rs21.55 (up 47.8%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs2879 and a low of Rs2780 and recorded volumes of over 6,00,000 shares on NSE.

HCC plunged by over 8% to Rs1695. The company announced its Q3 result with net profit at Rs250.5mn (up 13.9%) and net sales at Rs7.5bn (up 39.9%). The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs216 and a low of Rs190 and recorded volumes of over 26,00,000 shares on NSE.

NDTV slipped 3.5% to Rs445. The company’s profit after tax on a like-to-like comparison with same quarter last year was Rs105.7mn compared to Rs70.6mn last year for the same period, a growth of 50%. The company’s standalone revenue was up 33% yoy. Revenues for Q3, FY08 touched Rs895mn compared to Rs675mn in the same quarter last year. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs469 and a low of Rs441 and recorded volumes of over 78,000 shares on NSE.

KPIT Cummins declined 6% to Rs107. The company announced its Q3 result registering revenue of Rs1.51bn during Q3FY08 a 29.09% growth over the corresponding period in the last financial year. The company earned a net profit of Rs141.30mn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs117 and a low of Rs105 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.

ONGC slipped 3% to Rs1211. According to reports the company’s unit may sign a deal with Iran's Petropars Ltd. to buy a stake in the Kish oil block. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1259 and a low of Rs1198 and recorded volumes of over 19,00,000 shares on NSE.

Essar Shipping was locked at 5% upper circuit to Rs232.45 after reports stated that the company may merge its oilfield services arm. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs232. 45 and a low of Rs216 and recorded volumes of over 49,00,000 shares on NSE.

Unity Infraprojects surged by over 4% to Rs910 after the company announced that they secured order from Magarpatta Retail Pvt Ltd for civil construction works of the proposed building for Magarpatta Retail Mall Project at Magarpatta City, Hadapsar, Pune. The contract value is Rs1.02bn and the project is to be completed with 9.5 months from commencement of work. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs955 and a low of Rs880 and recorded volumes of over 71,000 shares on NSE.

With markets being takeover by the bear storm, bulls would look to spring back. But for that, some stability should return in the global markets. This month all eyes would be on the quarterly results announcement in the coming weeks. It is advisable for traders & investors to avoid day trading on back of wild intra-day gyrations (volatility) and should look to pick fundamentally strong stocks as most of the frontrunners have corrected considerably.

News Snippets:

The Government has issued bonds worth Rs112.5bn to three public sector oil marketing companies - HPCL-Rs23.5bn, IOC-Rs63.6bn, BPCL-Rs25.4bn. (ET)

Reliance Industries plans to produce 30-40mn cubic meters of gas a day from six finds in the Mahanadi block with an investment of US$1.14bn. The company acquires 1,000 hectares for Mumbai SEZ. (BS)

In a PE deal, SBI has picked up 7.8% equity in the Orissa-based ARSS Infrastructure Projects Limited. (BS)

ICICI Venture to pick up stake in Nariman Point Building & Services, the holding company for the Indian Express Newspapers (Bombay). (BS)

SEBI has asked Heidelberg Cement AG to acquire shares of Mysore Cements from the SK Birla group, at the same price at which it bought shares from public shareholders by open offer.

The merger between SBI and seven of its associates is expected to take time, as it requires the SBI (Subsidiary Banks) Act to be repealed by the Parliament. (FE)

Reliance Power, Jindal Steel & Power and L&T are among nine companies that have qualified for 2000-MW Talwandi Sabo coal-based thermal power plant at Mansa in Punjab. (ET)

Hero Honda says it is considering using excess capacity at its existing factories to make components and export motorcycle kits after a new factory at Haridwar, Uttarakhand starts production in April. (Mint)

To support its huge expansion plans, BSNL might have to resort to an IPO in three years’ time, says its CMD. (BS)

L&T is being promoted as the Bhel-II for manufacturing power equipment required for large super critical thermal power plants. (ET)

Wipro Consumer Care & Lighting, in an attempt to widen its product portfolio, is entering the Rs27bn skincare market. (Mint)

Container Corporation of India may tie up with Bharti-Wal-Mart to procure and supply fruit to the retailer. (ET)

LIC Housing Finance to make preferential offer of 8.4mn shares to two institutions. (BL)

Five Bidders, including American Tower and Essar have been shortlisted by Tata Teleservices for selling stake in its tower business. (ET)

HDIL plans to invest Rs40bn in the cyber city in Kochi, Kerala. (BS)

L&T expects revenues of US$140mn from the switchgear business of Malasia’s Tamco, which it plans to acquire. (BS)

M&M Financial Services to raise Rs4.1bn through preferential allotment of 11.2% to TPG-Axon and Standard Chartered Private Equity. (ET)

Parsvnath Developers has announced an investment of Rs600bn in next five years in SEZs, airports, express ways and retails business. (BS)

Gayatri Projects plans to foray into the power generation sector and is scouting for a partner for the JV. (BS)

Essar Steel to bid for Millennium Iron Ore Range, one of the largest known undeveloped magnetite iron ore deposits in the world, owned by Canadian company New Millennium Capital Corp (NML). (BS)

Honda Motor will introduce its 20% ethanol compatible cars in India in 2008. (BL)

Wockhardt plans to list its R&D arm on January 1, 2009. (BS)

HPCL plans to enter the petrochemicals business by acquiring a strategic stake in Andhra Petrochemicals (APL). (Mint)

Emaar MGF to announce an IPO of US$1.6-1.8bn. The issue will begin on Feb. 1 and will close on Feb. 6. The price band is Rs610-690.

Emaar MGF and Fortis Healthcare plan to form a JV to set up 25 hospitals across major cities in India, with an investment of Rs12bn.

Ispat Industries and JSW Steel plan to cash in carbon credits incentives, by recycling waste gases into energy fuels. (TOI)

Roche files a patent infringement suit against Cipla over lung cancer drug Tarceva. (BL)

An arm of the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) has picked up a stake in ECL Finance, NBFC subsidiary of Edelweiss Capital. (BS)

Mayawati has announced that private sector firms executing projects for the state government will have job quotas. (BS)

Bankers expect interest rates to remain stable as liquidity is at comfortable levels. (BS)

Over 300 life-saving medicines may become cheaper by at least 25%, if the finance ministry considers a proposal to provide customs and excise duty waivers on all drugs that are part of the National List of Essential Medicines (NLEM). (BS)

The investment advisory committee of the IRDA has suggested some changes to make investment norms more flexible for insurance companies. (BS)

The DoT has come out with a revised subscriber-linked policy for spectrum allocation to GSM operator which is in line with the recommendations made by the Trai. (BS)

The Centre has asked states to cut sales tax on aviation turbine fuel. (BL)

Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority will allow investment of money under the New Pension Scheme in stock markets only through index funds in the initial years. (BS)

The finance ministry has cut customs duty on 539 items under the CECA with Singapore. (BL)

Peak Customs duty, which stands at 10%, is unlikely to be cut following slowdown in the manufacturing sector. (ET)

Coal mining may get infrastructure status in Budget 2008. (ET)

The Railway Board hikes demurrage, stabling and wharfage charges. (BL)

Paper manufacturers have demanded rationalization of customs and excise duties on paper and paperboard, (BL)

Bhutan may allow 100% FDI investment by Indian companies in Hydel Power space. (BL)

Maharashtra government has invited global tenders for developing terminal markets in Mumbai, Nashik and Nagpur. (BL)

The SC has stayed an order of the Allahabad HC, quashing the advisory price for the FY07 season fixed by the UP government. (FE)

Market Outlook - Jan 21 2008

Market Outlook - Jan 21 2008

Morning Notes - Jan 21 2008

Morning Notes - Jan 21 2008

Weekly Watch - Jan 21 2008

Weekly Watch - Jan 21 2008

New Richest Indian ... world's richest too ?

Reliance Power Ltd`s IPO, the country`s biggest, has helped the promoter Anil Ambani whiz past elder brother Mukesh and NRI tycoon Lakshmi Mittal at the top of India`s richie-rich club, with his wealth soaring to more than 60 billion dollars.

As per a list of richest Indians put out by renowned business magazine Forbes late last year, Mittal and Mukesh Ambani were ranked at the top two positions, followed by Anil at the third position.

At Rs 450 a share IPO that was concluded last week, Anil`s stake in Reliance Power, to be listed in early February, would amount to about 13 billion dollars. Even before the issue, Anil`s fortune was on an upswing while those of Mukesh and Mittal fell since the Forbes list was announced.

Forbes had calculated Lakshmi Mittal`s wealth at 51 billion dollars, based on the value of his shareholding in the world`s largest steelmaker Arcelormittal as on November 2.

However, a plunge in Arcelormittal`s market value since then (about 20% down in past three months) as well as a small drop in his shareholding has cut down his wealth by close to 12 billion dollars.

Mittal`s current holding in Arcelormittal stands at 623.62 million shares or 43.04%, down from 44.79% in November, giving him a net worth of 39.1 billion dollars, on the basis of the company`s closing share price of 62.7 dollars on Friday in New York.

According to Forbes list, the net worth of Mukesh and Anil Ambani stood at 49 billion dollars and 45 billion dollars, respectively, as on November 2. However, since that date, the total market capitalisation of Mukesh Ambani Group has dropped by 2.95% from Rs 5,19,557.33 crore to Rs 5,04,316.24 crore as on January 18.

During the same period, the total market value of five Anil Ambani Group companies has increased by 4.63% to Rs 2,92,474.64 crore from Rs 2,79,536.41 crore on November 2.

Assuming that the net worth of the two billionaires have increased in same ratio as that of their groups` market value, Mukesh Ambani has lost about 1.5 billion dollars, while Anil`s fortunes soared by about 2.1 billion dollars. This would put elder Ambani`s worth at 47.5 billion dollars, still a shade higher than Anil`s 47.1 billion dollars.

However, the situation might change drastically after the listing of reliance power, whose IPO closed with record demand of close to 190 billion dollars.

The company has fixed the IPO price at Rs 450 per share, taking the total proceeds to Rs 11,700 crore and giving the company an initial market capitalisation of Rs 1,15,841 crore.

This values Anil Ambani`s holding of about 45% in the company at Rs 52,128 crore (13.2 billion dollars), while his total net worth would rise to 60.3 billion dollars.

Besides, marketmen expect reliance power to list at a significant premium over the IPO price, which if happens, would further inflate Ambani`s wealth.

On the prospects of he becoming the richest man after the IPO, Anil Ambani had earlier talked about the legacy of his father and reliance founder Dhirubhai Ambani who had created wealth for shareholders.

Reliance Industries, RPL, TCS, Wipro

Reliance Industries, RPL, TCS, Wipro

Orchid Chemicals , ITC, HDFC, Wipro, BASF India

Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs375
Current market price: Rs292

Strong performance continues

Result highlights

  • Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals' (Orchid) top line grew by 39.4% year on year (yoy) to Rs332.7 crore in Q3FY2008. The top line growth was above our estimate of Rs302.5 crore and driven by the consolidation of market share in niche products such as Cefdinir, Cefepime and Cefoxitin.
  • Orchid's operating profit margin (OPM) shrank by 310 basis points yoy to 29.5%, driven by significant escalations in the raw material and staff costs. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 26.1% to Rs98.1 crore.
  • The reported net profit jumped up by 91.1% to Rs54.1 crore, powered by foreign exchange (forex) gains (on the outstanding foreign currency convertible bonds [FCCBs]) recorded during the quarter and the reduction in the interest expense. However, on excluding the net impact of the forex gain of Rs11.3 crore, the adjusted net profit of the company (derived solely from the operations) stood at Rs50.6 crore, up by 78.7% yoy. This was way above our estimate of Rs46 crore.
  • Orchid's management has guided towards a 35% growth in the company's top line and a doubling of the operational net profit (excluding the forex gains on the outstanding foreign currency liabilities) in FY2008. To account for the better than expected performance in M9FY2008 and taking into account the guidance provided by the management, we have revised our revenue and earnings estimates for FY2008 and FY2009. We believe Orchid's revenues will grow by 28.8% to Rs1,175.6 crore in FY2008 and by 24% to Rs1,458.1 crore in FY2009. The pre-exceptional net profit (excluding the forex gains on the outstanding foreign currency liabilities) will grow by 64.4% to Rs158.9 crore in FY2008 and by 42.4% to Rs226.2 crore in FY2009. This will yield fully diluted earnings of Rs17.4 per share in FY2008 and Rs23.4 per share in FY2009.
  • At the current market price of Rs292, Orchid is discounting its FY2008E earnings by 16.8x and its FY2009E earnings by 12.5x. The valuations at these levels seem absolutely compelling when viewed in context of the strong growth potential that awaits the company. We retain our positive stance on the stock and maintain our Buy call with a price target of Rs375.

Housing Development Finance Corporation
Cluster: Evergreen
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs3,362
Current market price: Rs2,820

Q3FY2008 results: First-cut analysis

Result highlights

  • For Q3FY2008 HDFC has reported a profit after tax (PAT) of Rs648.9 crore, which is marginally above our estimate of Rs626.2 crore. The Q3FY2008 PAT grew by a strong 82.5% year on year (yoy) driven by a strong year-on-year growth in the net interest income, other operating income and a gain of Rs120.9 crore from the sale of the 7.2% stake in HDFC Standard Life Insurance.
  • The net interest income for the quarter came in at Rs665.6 crore, up 62% yoy and 8% quarter on quarter (qoq), buoyed by a strong growth in the disbursements. The interest income registered a growth of 46% yoy against which the interest expense was up 39% yoy.
  • Our calculation indicates that the net interest margin for the quarter has improved by ten basis points qoq to 3.6% due to a higher prime lending rate and a lower cost of funds.
  • The other operating income witnessed a whopping growth of 134% yoy to Rs65.4 crore owing to a jump in the gain from deployment of surplus cash in mutual funds—at Rs44.4 crore against Rs6 crore in Q3FY2007.
  • On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the loan approvals reached Rs29,376 crore, up 30% from Rs22,666 crore for the prior year period. Meanwhile, the YTD loan disbursements grew by 28% to Rs22,285 crore from Rs17,465 crore in the same period of the last year.
  • Though the provisions as a percentage of the loan book went up to 1.2% as in December 2007 from 0.8% as in December 2006, the same were well under control.
  • The asset quality improved as the gross non-performing asset percentage (GNPA as a percentage of the loan portfolio) declined by 14 basis points yoy to 1.12%. However, on absolute terms, the GNPA increased to Rs710.6 crore from Rs646.8 crore last year.
  • HDFC's capital adequacy ratio (CAR) as at the end of December 2007 stood at 17.6% compared with 13.7% in the previous year, whereas its tier-I capital ratio stood at 15.3%. Both, the CAR and the tier-I capital ratio were well above the minimum requirement of 12% and 6% respectively.
  • The strong quarterly results of HDFC reinforce our bullish stance on the company. In addition, the expected initial public offering of HDFC Standard Life in 2009, any increase in the cap on foreign holdings in insurance companies and value unlocking from HDFC's general insurance business through a stake sale to ERGO (Germany) should act as triggers in future.
  • At the current market price of Rs2,820, the stock is trading at 20.7x its 2009E earnings and 3.7x its 2009E book value, and 17x its 2010E earnings and 3.2x its 2010E book value. Based on the various positives and the attractive valuations, we reiterate our Buy rating on the stock with a price target of Rs3,362.

Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs554
Current market price: Rs455

Price target revised to Rs554

Result highlights

  • Wipro's global information technology (IT) service business reported a revenue growth of 11.4% quarter on quarter (qoq) and 24.6% year on year (yoy) to Rs3,597.3 crore (under US GAAP) for Q3FY2008. In dollar terms, the revenues grew at a reasonably healthy rate of 14.3% sequentially to $910.1 million (ahead of its guidance of $905 million). However, it included incremental revenues of $61.4 million contributed by the recent acquisitions (as compared with $6.4 million in Q2 as acquisitions were effective from September 20, 2007). Adjusting for the same, the revenue growth in the global IT service organic business stood at 7.4% qoq in dollar terms, which was contributed by a 7.2% sequential growth in the IT service business and a 9.3% sequential growth in the business process outsourcing (BPO) segment. The volume growth of 6.4% qoq in the IT service business was in line with expectations, whereas the improvement of 0.5% qoq in the blended realisations was ahead of expectations.
  • The operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 150 basis points sequentially to 20.7%, largely because of (1) The adverse impact due to the consolidation of Infocrossing (impact of 1.1%); (2) The full impact of wage hikes (12-13% hike given to offshore employees in IT service segment with effect from August 1,2007 and to BPO employees with effect from October, 2007)and (3) The appreciation in rupee (impact of 80 basis points). This was more than nullified by the improvement in the blended realisation (0.5% sequential improvement) and the leverage in the overheads cost as a percentage of sales (down to 3.4% of sales as compared with 9.1% in Q2).
  • The company has given a revenue guidance of $955 million for the global IT service business in Q4, which amounts to a growth of around 4.9% sequentially (and is relatively muted as compared with the revenue growth guidance of 7.7% and 6.9% in Q4FY2006 and Q4FY2007 respectively). The margins are expected to remain in a narrow range in spite of the adverse impact of around 1% due to the annual wage hikes to onsite employees in January. In terms of the overall demand environment, the management has not felt any impact of the weak economic conditions in the US on its deal flow or the deal pipeline as of now. However, it indicated that some of the clients were looking at reducing their total IT budgets in 2008 and that a clear picture would emerge only by the end of the quarter. This further added to the continued uncertainty about the demand environment that has been dragging down the tech stocks.
  • In case of other businesses run by the company, the Indian IT service business reported a sequential growth of 5.1% in the revenues to Rs920.7 crore and it bagged some large deals (including the total outsourcing deal from a cellular operator in India close to $350-400 million). The consumer care business and the other business segment also reported healthy double-digit sequential growth of 13.7% and 17.2% respectively.
  • Consequently, Wipro's consolidated revenues grew at a healthy rate of 10.7% qoq and 32.1% yoy to Rs5,236.1 crore (as per the US GAAP). The OPM declined by 30 basis points sequentially to 17.0% (with gross margins declining by 110 basis points). The earnings grew marginally by 1.7% qoq to Rs826.1 crore. The lower than expected growth in earnings was largely contributed by the unexpected decline of 38.8% in the other income component to Rs45.5 crore in Q3FY2008.
  • We have fine-tuned our earning estimates for FY2008 and FY2009 to factor in the lower than expected other income. At the current market price, the stock trades at 20.2x FY2008 and 16.8x FY2009 estimated earnings. We maintain our Buy call on the stock with a revised price target of Rs554 (20.5x FY2009E earnings).

Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs241
Current market price: Rs213

Q3FY2008 results: First-cut analysis

Result highlights

  • ITC's operating performance for Q3FY2008 was in line with our expectations. The sales growth of 9.2% year on year (yoy) was below our expectations primarily on account of a decline in the agri-business revenues due to restrictions imposed on the export of non-basmati rice.
  • The operating profit margin (OPM) for the quarter stood at a strong 34.7% against 34.2% in the corresponding period last year (Q3FY2007) and 31.5% in the previous quarter (Q2FY2008). The operating profit thereby grew by 10.8% to Rs1,199.7 crore.
  • A jump of 96.9% in the other income to Rs137.4 crore, which was above the expectations, helped the net profit grow by a handsome 15.8% yoy to Rs830.7 crore.
  • The cigarettes segment made a comeback in volume terms as it saw a dip of just about ~1% in the volumes, which was ahead of the expectations. We expect the volumes to catch up the normal growth rate of 5-7% in FY2009. The gross revenues for the segment increased by 7.6% yoy and the profit before interest and tax (PBIT) rose by a good 16% yoy.
  • The non-cigarette fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) business continued its remarkable progress with a 50.1% revenue growth. The segment loss increased to Rs64.5 crore (a loss margin of 9.8%) on account of spends on new product launches particularly those in the personal care category. The agri-business' profitability rebounded with a PBIT margin of 4.2% after a one-off slip in the previous quarter. However the segment revenues showed a year-on-year (y-o-y) de-growth of 9.4% due to restrictions on the export of non-basmati rice.
  • We continue our bullish stance on the stock with a price target of Rs241. At the current market price of Rs213, the stock discounts its FY2009E earnings per share (EPS) of Rs9.6 by 21.3x and trades at FY2009E enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 13.7x.

BASF India
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs330
Current market price: Rs280

Price target revised to Rs330

Result highlights

  • BASF India (BASF) has registered good results for Q3FY2008, which is in line with our expectations. The net sales grew by 22% year on year (yoy) to Rs222.7 crore, mainly driven by a strong 27% growth in the sales of agricultural products and a 27.9% growth in the sales of plastics.
  • The operating profit margin (OPM) expanded by 60 basis points yoy driven by better profitability of the agricultural product division. Consequently, the operating profit grew by 29.9% to Rs20.7 crore.
  • Inspite increased interest and depreciation charges, the company's net profit increased by 24.6% to Rs11 crore.
  • We expect the consumption boom in the company's user industries (white goods, home furnishings, paper, construction and automobiles) to continue and hence we remain optimistic on the company's growth prospects. BASF has already expanded its polymer dispersion capacity at Mangalore from 20,000 tonne per annum (tpa) to 65,000tpa in March 2007 to cater to the growing demand.
  • We believe the company is trading at an attractive valuation of 8.9x FY2009E consolidated earnings and an enterprise value (EV)/earnings before interest, depreciation, tax and amortisation (EBIDTA) of 5.0x. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs330 valued at 10.5x its FY2009E earnings.



Industry dispatches up 4% in December
The cement industry maintained the growth in cement dispatches in December 2007. Cement dispatches grew at 4.4% year on year (yoy) in the month. Among the major players, ACC registered a 6% year-on-year fall in dispatches at 1.56 million metric tonne (MMT), mainly because one of its plant in south India was undergoing maintenance during the month. Ambuja Cements achieved a healthy 6% rise in dispatches to 1.48MMT on account of better capacity utilisation. Grasim Industries' dispatches were flat yoy at 1.27MMT. Dispatches at UltraTech Cement grew by 11% yoy at 1.34MMT mainly because of capacity expansion that happened during FY2008.