India Votes 2009 - Summary of BJP’s IT Vision Document –Benefitting Rural India

1. Will generate 1.20 Crore new IT-enabled jobs in rural areas. This will be achieved by way of at least 20 jobs in each of the aprox 600000 villages in the country. A series of initiatives have been devised to make this a realty.

2. Raise farm productivity, bring cost of cultivation down and increase Kisans’ income using IT for water conservation, soil enrichment, procurement, marketing, credit needs of Kisans, waste elimination and taking R&D from ‘lab to land’.

3. Internet in every town and village – with unlimited upload and download data transfer limits

4. Every BPL (Below Poverty Line) family to be given free smart mobile phone – Free of cost.

5. 100% financial inclusion through Bank accounts, with eBanking facilities for all Indian Citizens. Direct transfer of welfare funds.

6. Providing highest standard Medical Services under eHealthcare initiative – using video conferencing facilities, without the need to travel to Big cities for medical treatment. This is known as Telemedicine. The BJP led government will use IT to provide best medical services to Rural India.

7. Land and property records to be computerized to reduce the number of disputes / litigation due to non-clarity of land records in rural areas.

8. Panchayats will be able to communicate between themselves, free of cost!

9. Purchase of Railway and Bus tickets from the Internet in their own villages!

10. All courts to be computerized for faster decision on cases and clearing of back log..

11. All Citizen to have free call facility to call their areas M.P.. This will be a 24 Hours facility. This will be helpful in their discussing the problems with their elected representative.

12. Under eGovernance for Good Governance – Making available government services online and in local languages in every village & town.

13. Implementing ‘E Gram Vishwa Gram’ : Gujrat’s pioneering project that BJP ledges to implement nationwide – This project aims at providing broadband connectivity to all gram panchayats. Video conferencing facilities at all the villages. Gram Panchayat to issue citizen related documents and certificates, application forms including 7 / 12 certificates to farmers from Panchayats.

14. The use of IT will help in better communication from Rural areas to City Government, State Government and even the centre government. This will reduce corruption ,since all transactions between government and citizens will be computerized.

15. Under eDevelopment for all – To provide Information required by Farmers (About markets, inputs, farm operations, government schemes etc) to be provided through digital platforms – at Panchayat level only.

16. National skill development mission to increase the number of skilled workers from 8% currently to 20% in five years of BJP led NDA rule. Climate change also to be addressed with green technologies.

17. A great initiative planned by BJP led NDA government – eBhasha – National Mission for promotion of IT in Indian Languages – All softwares sold in India would have to be compatible with all 22 official languages. This will go a long way in e-enabling our rural India and ensure deeper penetration of IT / Internet which will help in much faster development of the Rural India

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Apr 29 2009

Deal Date Scrip Code Company Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
29/4/2009 512149 AVANCE TECHN MAHENDRA NATWARLAL SHAH S 40000 8.13
29/4/2009 512149 AVANCE TECHN DEVANG DINESH MASTER S 50000 8.13
29/4/2009 512149 AVANCE TECHN NILESHGONSALVES S 35000 8.13
29/4/2009 511664 BGIL FL TEC BADRINATH ADVISORY PRIVATE LIMITED B 40299 52.85
29/4/2009 511664 BGIL FL TEC KRUPALI V RAJAWAT B 67000 52.83
29/4/2009 590059 BIHAR TUBES THE PERLESS CONSULTANCY SERVICES PRIVATE LIMITED B 200000 60.00
29/4/2009 590059 BIHAR TUBES RAJASTHAN GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD S 100000 58.44
29/4/2009 590059 BIHAR TUBES AVANTIKA ENTERPRISES S 127247 60.00
29/4/2009 532081 K SERA SERA S V ENTERPRISES B 1241327 10.46
29/4/2009 532081 K SERA SERA S V ENTERPRISES S 1241327 10.34
29/4/2009 531413 KIRAN PRIN P YASH MANAGEMENT AND SATELLITE LTD B 25500 10.46
29/4/2009 532819 MINDTREE LTD OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 260129 306.82
29/4/2009 532819 MINDTREE LTD OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 260129 307.47
29/4/2009 512489 OASIS SECURI KRUPALI V RAJAWAT B 10000 38.40
29/4/2009 531996 ODYSSEY CORP ATUL SINGHI S 25000 21.60
29/4/2009 531996 ODYSSEY CORP SUMAN SINGHI S 25000 21.60
29/4/2009 512449 PACE TEXTILES SHREE THIRUMALAI MARKETING AND INVESTMENTS LTD S 200000 17.25
29/4/2009 523445 RELIANCE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUC GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD. B 230651 720.23
29/4/2009 523445 RELIANCE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUC CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTD B 159512 721.64
29/4/2009 523445 RELIANCE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUC OPG SECURITIES P LTD B 324533 718.90
29/4/2009 523445 RELIANCE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUC GENUINE STOCK BROKERS PVT. LTD. S 230651 721.02
29/4/2009 523445 RELIANCE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUC CHANDARANA INTERMEDIARIES BROKERS P. LTD S 156660 719.71
29/4/2009 523445 RELIANCE INDUSTRIAL INFRASTRUC OPG SECURITIES P LTD S 324533 719.41
29/4/2009 511630 SAMBHAAV MED VORA SECURITIES PVT.LTD B 960000 2.00
29/4/2009 511630 SAMBHAAV MED THAKURJI INTERNATIONAL PVT.LTD B 1000000 2.00
29/4/2009 511630 SAMBHAAV MED SURYARATH CARRY PACK IND LTD S 1960000 2.00
29/4/2009 531898 SANGUINE MD BHAMINI KAMAL PAREKH B 98142 2.18
29/4/2009 512413 SPECTACLE VIPUL SHANTILAL SHAH B 289480 55.34
29/4/2009 512413 SPECTACLE VIPUL SHANTILAL SHAH S 289480 55.18
29/4/2009 526133 SUPERTEX IND KUMKUM STOCK BROKER PVT LTD B 51504 24.95
29/4/2009 532966 TITAGARH WAG INDUS CAPITAL ADVISORS UK LLP AC INDUS INDIA FUND MAURITIUS LTD B 500000 191.00
29/4/2009 532966 TITAGARH WAG 2I CAPITAL PCC S 500000 191.00
29/4/2009 526775 VALIANT COMM* OSTRICH ESTATE PRIVATE LIMITED S 100000 24.25
29/4/2009 514470 WINSOME TEXT RONAK ASHWIN CHOKSI S 30114 33.15

Post Session Commentary - Apr 29 2009

Indian market extended its initial gains to close sharply higher on account of firm European markets along with positive US index futures. Investors covered their short positions before F&O expiry. Strong buying over the ground was also contributed by better than expected results from the corporates. However, there was a little fear of deepening global recession on outbreak of Swine-Flu.

The market bounced back today to open on pleasant note along with all other Asian counter parts. However, US stock markets on Tuesday closed flat after a volatile session on worries over the swine flu epidemic and concern about the about the health of the two banking giants Bank of America and Citigroup. Bulls were in command on huge buying witnessed over the counters. Further, benchmark indices continued to extend their gains and rallied sharply during final trading hours to end near day’s high. Markets extended their gains to around 3.5% towards the final trading. BSE Sensex ended above 11,400 level and NSE Nifty closed above 3,470 level. On the sectoral front, traders on-loaded positions across the sectors. Besides, strong buying was witnessed in Bank, IT, Oil & Gas, Teck, Power, Realty, Metal and Auto stocks. Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks also followed the same trend.

Among the Sensex pack 29 stocks ended in green territory and 1 in red. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained strong as 1433 stocks closed in green while 1025 stocks closed in red and 88 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.

The BSE Sensex closed higher by 401.50 points at 11,403.25 and NSE Nifty ended up by 111.60 points at 3,473.95. BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with gains of 63.15 and 52.58 points at 3,513.86 and 3,940.90 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 11,430.25 and intraday low of 11,091.56.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are ICICI Bank (8.74%), JP Associates (6.85%), Sterlite Industries (6.75%), Tata Power (6.60 %), Infosys Tech (5.29%), Reliance Infra (4.99%), Wipro Ltd (4.79%), HUL (4.20%), TCS Ltd (4.11%) and Tata Motors (4.10%).

Only loser from the BSE Sensex pack is Grasim Industries (0.54%).

On the global markets front the Asian markets which opened before the Indian market, ended higher as investors noticed some sign of recovery in US economy. A report released by the Conference Board showed that that the consumer confidence index jumped to 39.2 in April from an upwardly revised 26.9 in March. The reading was expected to come in at 29.7. Shanghai Composite, Hang Seng, Straits Times index and Seoul Composite ended higher by 66.75, 401.84, 41.16 and 38.18 points at 2,468.19, 14,956.95, 1,849.57 and 1,338.42 respectively. The Japanese market remained closed on account of Showa Day.

European markets which opened after the Indian market are trading in green. In Frankfurt the DAX index is trading up by 52.84 points at 4,660.26 and in London FTSE 100 is trading higher by 52.70 points at 4,149.10.

The BSE IT index surged (4.95%) or 125.51 points to close at 2,665.35 on hopes that aggressive measures by the US government to revive the economy may bring effective results. Main gainers are Patni Computer (7.41%), Financ Tech (6.94%), Rolta Ind (5.91%), Infosys Tech (5.29 %) and Oracle Fin (4.93%).

The BSE Bank stocks advanced by (4.47%) or 243.47 points to close at 5,685.22 on hopes falling interest rates will encourage lending growth. Major gainers are ICICI Bank (8.74%), Canara Bank (6.93%), Bank of Baroda (6.08%), Kotak Bank (5.79%) and Federal Bank (5.77%).

The BSE Teck index ended higher by (3.99%) or 83.08 points to close at 2,163. Dish TV (11.70%), Balaji Tele (9.54%), Patni Computer (7.41%), Adlabs Films (7.18%) and Deccan Chro (7.02%) ended in positive territory.

The BSE Oil & Gas ended up by (3.48%) or 273.82 points at 8,132.62. Gainers are Gail India (4.22%), ONGC Ltd (3.93%), Reliance (3.80%), Reliance Pet (3.67%) and RNRL (3.66%).
The BSE Power index gained (3.17%) or 64.87 points to close at 2,112.76. Gainers are Tata Power (6.60%), Suzlon Energy (5.82%), Reliance Infra (4.99%), Siemens Ltd (4.85%) and Lanco Infra (4.25%).

The BSE Auto index closed with increase of (2.92%) or 99.22 points at 3,498.24 on hopes lower interest rates will boost demand which is mainly driven by finance. Scrips that gained are Ashok Leyland (5.68%), Hero Honda Motors (5.49%), Tata Motors (4.10%), Bharat Forge (3.87%), M&M Ltd (2.43%) and MRF Ltd (2.40%).

Man Industries (India) Ltd ended up by 9.84% on winning an order worth Rs. 1,340 crore from the Middle East, taking its order book to Rs. 2,000 crore.

Reliance Industries Ltd spurted 3.80% after the company has signed a deal of Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement (G&PA) with the customers in power sector for supply of natural gas to be produced from the KG-D6 block. The GSPAs were signed with 9 customers in the power sector for supply of approximately 11.0 million standard cubic meters (tnmscmd) natural gas at 11 different power generation facilities.

Bharti Airtel surged 3.25% after the telecom operator reported good numbers for the quarter ended March 2009. The company has posted a net profit of Rs.22.39bn for the January-March quarter as against Rs21.59bn in the previous quarter. The net sales during Q4 FY09 came in at Rs.95.25bn as compared to Rs.78.2bn in the quarter ended December 31, 2008.

L&T is ended up by 0.79%. The company is now planning to enter into the power generation sector apart from a power project equipment supplier. The company is eyeing strategic stakes of up to 26% in private power projects. It may also set up plants with a capacity of 660 megawatts preferably coal-based with an initial investment of Rs. 1200 crore.

SBI advanced by 3.04%. The bank has lowered interest rates on education loans for new borrowers in the range of 25-200 basis points. Following the rate cut, education loans will be available in the range of 11-11.5%.

Wockhardt Ltd gained 0.39%. The Company and Wockhardt USA LLC, a subsidiary of the Company, have executed a settlement and license agreement with Orion Corporation regarding Wockhardts submission of Abbreviated New Drug Applications (ANDA) for the generic versions of Orions Comtan and Stolevo products.

Dena Bank lost 0.40%. The bank reported total income of Rs 1,03,583 lacs for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 with rise of 17.31% as against Rs 88,298 lacs during corresponding period of previous year. Further, the bank has posted a net profit of Rs 11,117 lacs for the quarter ended March 31, 2009, with increase of 0.16%.

Domestic bourses to take cue from global equities

Recovery in the Indian and global economy and buying by foreign funds may support stocks which have witnessed a strong rally since mid-March 2009. Good Q4 March 2009 results by India Inc has supported the rally. However, political uncertainty may cap near term upside.

The market will react to the Q4 results of Reliance Communications, India's second biggest cellular services provider by market capitalization and India's biggest realty firm by market capitalization DLF when trading resume on 4 May 2009 after a four-day long weekend. Both the companies are announcing Q4 results on 30 April 2009. The stock market remains closed on 30 April 2009 on accounting of voting in Mumbai for the ongoing parliamentary elections. The market remains closed on Friday, 1 May 2009, for Maharashtra Day.

On Monday, 4 May 2009, India's biggest dedicated housing finance firm by revenue HDFC will unveil Q4 results.

Recent data slowing decline in housing prices and orders for US-made durable goods suggest the US economy is on a recovery path. US consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board's sentiment index jumped more than forecast in April 2009. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the US the economy. A US recovery augurs well for Indian IT stocks. US is the biggest market for Indian IT sector.

However, likely protectionist measures by the US may weigh on IT stocks. Two US lawmakers have introduced the H-1B and L-1 Visa Reform Act which stipulates that all employers who want to hire an H-1B guest worker should first make a good-faith attempt to recruit a qualified American worker. Employers would be prohibited from using H-1B visa holders to displace qualified American workers. It would also prohibit employers from hiring additional H-1B workers if more than 50% of their employees are H-1B holders. Top Indian IT firms have considerable workforce working on H-1B visas in the US.

US stocks have shown some resilience to bad news of late. There had been fears that the outbreak of swine flu will derail a global economic recovery. Nearly a week after the threat emerged in Mexico, where up to 159 people have died, US officials said on Wednesday, 29 April 2009, a 23-month-old child died from the virus in the state that borders Mexico.

Stress tests showed Bank of America needs billions of dollars of capital, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal which cited people familiar with the situation. The report also said Bank of America and Citigroup are both challenging the findings. The Wall Street Journal also said Wells Fargo & Co, Fifth Third Bancorp and Regions Financial Corp. are all expected to need more capital.

Meanwhile, a number of investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, have recently raised their forecasts for China's growth for calendar 2009 citing the aggressive moves by the Chinese government to stimulate the economy.

India's economy also appears to be on a recovery path. India's industrial production may have risen 10% on a monthly basis in March 2009 as the effects of a recent spate of fiscal and monetary measures started showing up, Macquarie Research said in a recent note.

A lead economic indicator in India has climbed for three consecutive months pointing to a strong recovery in industrial activity by June 2009, UBS said in a note late on 24 April 2009. UBS said the key variables which have boosted its lead indicator index was the government bond yield spread, real (M1) money supply and a revival in foreign capital inflows. "Our base-case scenario is for the Indian economy and corporate earnings to bottom out by the second half of 2009/10 and for full recovery in 2010/11," it said. UBS said it is positive on the Indian stock market on a 12 month view with overweight recommendation for autos, metals, banks, real estate and conglomerates.

Property firm Unitech's Rs 1600-crore mop up through qualified institutional placement recently means that the credit crisis for the Indian corporate sector is over. The Unitech fund raising comes on the top of record quarterly collection through bond sales by the corporate India in Q4 March 2009.

Lack of easy availability of credit, the lifeline of business, had weighed heavily on the stock market sentiment until recently.

But political uncertainty may cap near term upside on the bourses with polling underway for India's 15th Lok Sabha. The month-long parliamentary elections that began on 16 April 2009 will conclude on 13 May 2009. Poll estimates point to a fractured mandate. Consumption and investment decisions will be significantly impacted by any signs that the new government is unstable. The counting of votes will take place on 16 May 2009. A party/alliance needs 272 seats in the 543-member parliament to claim power at the Centre.

Sensex rises for the 8th consecutive week

Momentum buying lifted the market for the eighth consecutive week on expectations of a recovery in the Indian and global economy. Foreign investors made heavy purchases. A recent reduction in interest rates also powered the market higher.

A forecast by the Meteorological Department of a near normal monsoon as well as better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings announced by some key corporates also provided fillip to the market sentiment.

FII inflow in April 2009 totaled Rs 7,039.90 crore, and the inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 368.10 crore (till 28 April 2009).

The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 74.20 points or 0.65% to 11,403.25, in week ended 29 April 2009. But the broader 50-unit Nifty fell 6.8 points or 0.19% to 3473.95 in the week.

The BSE Mid-Cap index fell 2.4% to 3,513.86 and the BSE Small-Cap index fell 3.1% to 3940.90 in the week.

Trading for the week started on a mixed note. Key benchmark indices saw divergent trend - with the BSE Sensex advancing and its peer S&P CNX Nifty ending lower on Monday. 27 April 2009. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 42.80 or 0.38% to 11,371.85. The S&P CNX Nifty slipped 10.75 points or 0.31% to 3,470.

Indian stocks joined global sell off on Tuesday, 28 April 2009, after the Wall Street Journal reported Bank of America Corporation and Citigroup Inc. were told by US regulators that they need more capital. Concerns that the swine-flu outbreak will curtail travel and delay a recovery from the global recession also weighed on global stocks. The BSE 30-share Sensex fell 370.10 points or 3.25% to 11,001.75. The S&P CNX Nifty fell 107.65 points or 3.1% to 3,362.35.

Positive global cues and short covering in April 2009 derivatives contracts which expired on 29 April 2009, boosted the bourses on that day. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 401.50 points or 3.65% to 11,403.25. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 111.60 points or 3.32% to 3473.95.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1% in the week. The company signed gas sales and purchase agreement (GSPA) with customers in the power sector for supply of natural gas from the prolific KG-D6 block. The GSPAs were signed with nine customers in the power sector for supply of about 11 million standard cubic metres (mmscmd) of natural gas at 11 different power generation facilities.

Meanwhile, as per other reports, Reliance Industries has resumed crude oil production from one well in its east coast deepwater block. Reliance had stopped crude oil production form the Krishna Godavari block, popularly known as D-6, from 22 March 2009 to add more wells to raise the crude oil output.

India's largest oil exploration firm by sales Oil and Natural Gas Corporation gained 1% as crude oil moved past $50 a barrel mark. The rise in crude oil prices would result in higher realizations from crude sales for oil exploration firms.

India's largest telecom services provider by sales Bharti Airtel was almost unchanged at Rs 749.30. Its consolidated net profit as per US accounting standards rose 21% to Rs 2239.30 crore on 26% growth in sales to Rs 9824.50 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008. The company also announced a 2-for-1 stock split. The result was declared on 29 April 2009.

India's second largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank was unchanged at Rs 1100.70. The banks' net profit rose 33.9% to Rs 630.88 crore on 53.1% rise in operating income to Rs 5,365,52 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008. The results were more or less in line with market expectations. The bank announced the results on Thursday 23 April 2009.

HDFC Bank's gross non performing assets (NPA) stood at 1.98% of advances as of 31 March 2009 compared to 1.91% as of 31 December 2008. Net NPA as of 31 March 2009 was at 0.63% of net advances.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank jumped 10.50% after Goldman Sachs raised its rating on the stock to 'buy' on improving core earnings.

ICICI's net profit fell 35% to Rs 743.76 crore on a 11.4% decline in operating income to Rs 9203.36 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008. The net profit slipped 9.6% to Rs 3758.13 crore on a 2.3% fall in operating income to Rs 38696.27 crore in the year ended March 2009 over the year ended March 2008.

India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India (SBI) fell 2.3%. SBI chairman O P Bhatt on 21 April 2009, said interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India were a signal for commercial banks to lower their rates. He said a decision on whether SBI would lower rates would be taken after a meeting of the bank's asset-liability. SBI's advance tax payment jumped 27.64% to Rs 1810 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008.

India's largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries India rose 2.80% on better-than-expected Q4 numbers. Sterlite Industries India reported a 54.62% fall in consolidated net profit to Rs 598.25 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008. Total income declined 34.76% to Rs 4800 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008.

India's monsoon, forecast to be near normal this year, may arrive a week earlier than the normal 1 June 2009 date, boosting prospects for an early planting of crops such as rice, oilseeds and cotton.

The weather office does not foresee a delay in the onset of the June-to-September rainy season, D Sivananda Pai, a director at India Meteorological Department, said on 28 April 2009, on a conference call organized by brokerage Edelweiss Securities. India's 235 million farmers rely on the timing of the four- month season to decide which crops to grow.

UBS's lead economic indicator in India has climbed for three consecutive months pointing to a strong recovery in industrial activity by June 2009, it said in a note late on Friday, 24 April 2009. UBS said the key variables which have boosted its lead indicator index was the government bond yield spread, real (M1) money supply and a revival in foreign capital inflows. "Our base-case scenario is for the Indian economy and corporate earnings to bottom out by the second half of 2009/10 and for full recovery in 2010/11," it said. UBS said it is positive on the Indian stock market on a 12 month view with overweight recommendation for autos, metals, banks, real estate and conglomerates.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday it had extended up to 31 October 2009, the ceiling on the rates of interest on pre-shipment rupee export credit of up to 270 days and post-shipment rupee export credit up to 180 days at benchmark prime lending rate minus 2.5%. The earlier validity was up to 30 April 2009.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor D. Subbarao on Saturday, 25 April 2009, said unwinding of fiscal stimulus in an orderly manner is one of the major challenges going forward. The central bank governor also highlighted other challenges ahead. These include implementing the fiscal stimulus packages, particularly stepping up public investment, revival of private investment demand, maintaining flow of credit while ensuring credit quality.

For the central bank, which is also the regulator of the financial markets, preserving financial stability along with provision of adequate liquidity is another task that will have to be addressed, according to the RBI governor. Besides, it will have to ensure an interest rate environment that supports the return of the economy to a high growth path.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday, 21 April 2009 cut its key short-term rates by 25 basis points each to shore up faltering growth in the face of the global economic slowdown. The Reserve Bank also repeated a call for banks to pass on its rate cuts to customers and said deposit rates should also fall. "There is scope for the overall interest rate structure to move down within the policy rate easing already effected by the Reserve bank," it said adding its latest rate cut reinforced the case.

Sensex surges to six-month high as global stocks rally

Positive global cues and short covering in April 2009 derivatives contracts which expired today, 29 April 2009, boosted the bourses in a volatile trading session. A sharp surge was witnessed in late trade. The BSE 30-share Sensex attained its highest closing in more than six months.

Banking, realty, auto and IT stocks were in the limelight. The Sensex jumped 401.50 points or 3.65%. A recovery in the economy also boosted the bourses. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries jumped past the Rs 1,800 mark.

The market was volatile as traders roll over positions from April 2009 contracts to May 2009 contracts ahead of the expiry of the near month April 2009 derivatives contracts. After a firm opening the market surged in early trade as strong Q4 results from mobile services giant Bharti Airtel and gains in Asian stocks bolstered sentiment. Profit taking after a recent solid surge in share prices pulled the market off the higher level in morning trade. The market bounced back again in early afternoon trade before paring gains. Volatility continued in afternoon trade. The market firmed up again in mid-afternoon trade. It surged in late trade.

The expiry of April 2009 derivatives contracts was advanced by a day from 30 April 2009 as the stock market remains closed on 30 April 2009 on account of voting for the parliamentary elections in Mumbai on 30 April 2009. As per reports, rollover of Nifty positions from April 2009 series to May 2009 series stood at 61% while those of stock futures were 54%, as on Tuesday, 28 April 2009.

Political uncertainty may lead to volatile swings on the bourses in the next few weeks with polling underway for India's 15th Lok Sabha. The month-long parliamentary elections that began on 16 April 2009 will conclude on 13 May 2009 with results due on 16 May 2009. Poll estimates point to a fractured mandate.

A recovery in the economy supported stocks today, 29 April 2009. India's industrial production may have risen 10% on a monthly basis in March 2009 as the effects of a recent spate of fiscal and monetary measures started showing up, Macquarie Research said in a recent note.

UBS's lead economic indicator in India has climbed for three consecutive months pointing to a strong recovery in industrial activity by June 2009, it said in a note late on Friday, 24 April 2009. UBS said the key variables which have boosted its lead indicator index was the government bond yield spread, real (M1) money supply and a revival in foreign capital inflows. "Our base-case scenario is for the Indian economy and corporate earnings to bottom out by the second half of 2009/10 and for full recovery in 2010/11," it said. UBS said it is positive on the Indian stock market on a 12 month view with overweight recommendation for autos, metals, banks, real estate and conglomerates.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday it had extended up to 31 October 2009, the ceiling on the rates of interest on pre-shipment rupee export credit of up to 270 days and post-shipment rupee export credit up to 180 days at benchmark prime lending rate minus 2.5%. The earlier validity was up to 30 April 2009.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor D. Subbarao on Saturday, 25 April 2009, said unwinding of fiscal stimulus in an orderly manner is one of the major challenges going forward. The central bank governor also highlighted other challenges ahead. These include implementing the fiscal stimulus packages, particularly stepping up public investment, revival of private investment demand, maintaining flow of credit while ensuring credit quality.

For the central bank, which is also the regulator of the financial markets, preserving financial stability along with provision of adequate liquidity is another task that will have to be addressed, according to the RBI governor. Besides, it will have to ensure an interest rate environment that supports the return of the economy to a high growth path.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday, 21 April 2009 cut its key short-term rates by 25 basis points each to shore up faltering growth in the face of the global economic slowdown. The Reserve Bank also repeated a call for banks to pass on its rate cuts to customers and said deposit rates should also fall. "There is scope for the overall interest rate structure to move down within the policy rate easing already effected by the Reserve bank," it said adding its latest rate cut reinforced the case.

Reacting to the RBI rate cut, ICICI Bank, India's largest private sector bank by net profit, announced a reduction in both deposit and lending rates after trading hours on Tuesday, 21 April 2009. While moderation in internal accruals has an adverse effect on corporate investment, decline in input prices and reduction in borrowing costs may have a favourable impact on profitability of the corporate sector going forward, the RBI said at the time of announcing the monetary policy.

The central bank said that managing large government borrowing in FY 2010 in a non-disruptive manner would be a major challenge, and said it would use a mix of monetary and debt management tools to ensure this was done smoothly. Large borrowings also militate against the low interest rate environment that the RBI is trying to maintain to spur investment demand in keeping with the stance of monetary policy, the central bank said in its policy statement.

A good news for the economy is forecast of a near normal monsoon by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on 17 April 2009. The IMD said rainfall in the June-September 2009 monsoon season was expected to be 96% of the long-term average. The outlook is among the nation's most widely watched indicator as monsoon rains are a major influence on output of key crops, economic activity and also affects sentiment in the country's financial markets.

European stocks gained ground on Wednesday, reversing some of the previous session's losses, as investors eyed forecast-beating earnings from some of Europe's top companies, including Siemens, Sanofi-Aventis, Santander and Royal Dutch Shell. Key benchmark indices in France, Germany and UK were up by between 0.8% to 1.3%.

The European Commission's economic sentiment indicator for the 16-nation euro zone rebounded to 67.2 in April 2009 from a record low of 64.7 in March 2009, marking the first rise since May 2007, the EC said Wednesday. Economists had expected a more modest rise to 65.3. The rebound was led by improvements in consumer and industrial confidence.

Asian stocks rose today, 29 April 2009 after reports showed US consumer confidence jumped this month by the most since 2005 and the pace of a slide in US home prices slowed. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, rose by between 0.31% and 2.94%. The Japanese markets were shut for a local holiday.

Trading in US index futures showed the Dow could rise 71 points at the opening bell on Wednesday 29 April 2009.

Better-than-expected US consumer data helped support Wall Street late Tuesday, with indexes ending only mildly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 8.05 points, or 0.10%, to 8,016.95, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 2.35 points, or 0.27%, to 855.16. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 5.60 points, or 0.33%, to 1,673.81.

Closer home, foreign funds turned sellers after aggressive buying recently. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth a net Rs 173.90 crore on Tuesday, 28 April 2009. FII inflow in April 2009 totaled Rs 7,039.90 crore (till 28 April 2009). With heavy buying in the last two months, foreign funds have turned net buyers in calendar 2009. FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 368.10 crore (till 28 April 2009).

FIIs had resorted to heavy selling of Indian stocks in the first two months of calendar 2009. Domestic institutional investors had absorbed the selling by FIIs.

The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 401.50 points or 3.65% to 11,403.25, its highest closing since 14 October 2009. At the day's high of 11,430.25, Sensex rose 428.50 points in late trade. At the day's low of 11,091.56, Sensex rose 89.81 points in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty jumped 111.60 points or 3.32% to 3,473.95

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong. On BSE, 1,437 stocks advanced as compared to 1,046 that declined. A total of 62 shares remained unchanged.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 4141 crore, lower than Rs 4,255.07 crore on Tuesday, 28 April 2009.

Nifty May 2009 futures were at 3,481, at a premium of 7.05 points as compared to the spot closing of 3,473.95. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment was Rs 80,063.40 crore, lower than Rs 81,137.88 crore on Tuesday, 28 April 2009.

The BSE Sensex is up 1,755.94 points or 18.2% in calendar 2009 from its close of 9,647.31 on 31 December 2008.

Coming back to today's trade, the BSE Mid-Cap index was up 1.83%, and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 1.35%. Both the indices underperformed the Sensex.

The BSE IT index (up 4.95%), The BSE Bankex (up 4.47%), the BSE TECk (up 3.99%) outperformed the Sensex.

The BSE Healthcare index (up 0.99%), the BSE FMCG index (up 1.53%), the BSE Consumer Durables index (up 1.94%), the BSE PSU index (up 1.96%), the BSE Capital Goods index (up 2.24%), the BSE Realty index (up 2.6%), the BSE Metal index (up 2.84%), the BSE Auto index (up 2.92%), the BSE Power index (up 3.17%), the BSE Oil & Gas index (up 3.48%), outperfomed the Sensex.

From the 30 pack Sensex pack, 29 stocks rose and only one stock fell.

India's largest private sector firm by market capitalisation and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 3.8% to Rs 1,802.70 after the company signed gas sales and purchase agreement (GSPA) with customers in the power sector for supply of natural gas from the prolific KG-D6 block. The GSPAs were signed with nine customers in the power sector for supply of about 11 million standard cubic metres (mmscmd) of natural gas at 11 different power generation facilities.

Meanwhile, as per other reports, Reliance Industries has resumed crude oil production from one well in its east coast deepwater block. Reliance had stopped crude oil production form the Krishna Godavari block, popularly known as D-6, from 22 March 2009 to add more wells to raise the crude oil output.

India's largest oil exploration firm by sales Oil and Natural Gas Corporation gained 3.93% as crude oil reversed earlier losses and moved past $50 a barrel mark. The rise in crude oil prices would result in higher realizations from crude sales for oil exploration firms.

India's largest telecom services provider by sales Bharti Airtel rose 3.25% as consolidated net profit as per US accounting standards rose 21% to Rs 2239.30 crore on 26% growth in sales to Rs 9824.50 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008. The company also announced a 2-for-1 stock split.

Capital goods stocks rose after India's biggest engineering & construction firm by revenue L&T recently said it expect a strong order flow in the year ending March 2010 (FY 2010). L&T, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Punj Lloyd, Praj Industries, Siemens rose by between 0.79% to 4.54%.

L&T on 16 April 2009 said the company expects its order inflow to grow by 25-35% in FY 2010

Some realty stocks rose on recent reports of revival in demand for new homes in Q4 March 2009. DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate, Housing Development & Infrastructure, Akruti City rose by between 2.68% to 5.5%.

Auto shares rose on hopes lower interest rates will boost demand for vehicles which is mainly driven by finance. Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Auto, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki India and Hero Honda Motors rose by between 1.44% to 5.49%.

Banking stocks rose on hopes falling interest rates will boost lending growth. India's second largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank rose 2.8%. Its American depository receipts (ADRs) fell 1.22% on Tuesday, 28 April 2009. The banks' net profit rose 33.9% to Rs 630.88 crore on 53.1% rise in operating income to Rs 5,365,52 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008. The results were more or less in line with market expectations. The bank announced the results on Thursday 23 April 2009.

HDFC Bank's gross non performing assets (NPA) stood at 1.98% of advances as of 31 March 2009 compared to 1.91% as of 31 December 2008. Net NPA as of 31 March 2009 was at 0.63% of net advances.

India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 8.74%. Goldman Sachs raised its rating on the stock on improving core earnings. Its American depository receipts (ADRs) fell 1.9% on Tuesday.

ICICI Bank cut its lending rates by 50 basis points after the central bank cut official interest rates on Tuesday 21 April 2009. The benchmark advance rate, or the rate that it charges its top customers, now stands at 16.25% from 16.75%, effective from Wednesday, 22 April 2009.

ICICI Bank also cut rates for retail customers by 50 basis points. The rates on deposits have been cut between 25 to 50 basis points, with effect from Friday 24 April 2009.

India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India (SBI) was up 3.04%. SBI chairman O.P. Bhatt on Tuesday 21 April 2009 said interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India were a signal for commercial banks to lower their rates. He said a decision on whether SBI would lower rates would be taken after a meeting of the bank's asset-liability. SBI's advance tax payment jumped 27.64% to Rs 1810 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008.

India's biggest dedicated housing finance firm by operating income HDFC rose 3.62%.

Outsourcing focussed IT stocks rose on speculation US government efforts to fix the banking system and revive the economy will pull the nation out of a recession. US is the biggest market for Indian IT firms. India's third largest software services exporter, Wipro rose 4.79% even as its ADR rose fell 0.76% on Tuesday.

India's largest software services exporter by sales TCS rose 4.11%. India's second largest software services exporter Infosys Technologies rose 5.29%. Its ADR was flat on Tuesday.

IT stocks shrugged off a firm rupee. The rupee rose on Wednesday, snapping a two-day fall, boosted by gains in Asian stock markets and the dollar's weakness against some currencies. The partially convertible rupee was at 50.09 per dollar, above Tuesday's close of 50.52/53. A stronger rupee affects operating profit of IT firms negatively as they earn most of their revenues from exports.

India's largest copper maker by sales Sterlite Industries India rose 6.75% on better-than-expected Q4 numbers. Sterlite Industries India reported a 54.62% fall in consolidated net profit to Rs 598.25 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008. Total income declined 34.76% to Rs 4800 crore in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008.

Some FMCG stocks rose triggered by expectations of a surge in sales due to forecast of a good monsoon this year. ITC, Hindustan Unilever, Dabur India, United Spirits rose by between 0.32% to 4.2%. FMCG firms derive a substantial revenue from rural markets.

Sugar stocks rose on reports India is likely to produce less sugar in the current season compared to last year. Shree Renuka Sugars, Balrampur Chini and Bajaj Hindusthan rose by between 6.53% to 7.38%

Unitech clocked the highest volume of 7.41 crore shares on BSE. Cals Refineries (5.88 crore shares), Jaiprakash Associates (1.1 crore shares), Suzlon Energy (1.1 crore shares) and Reliance Natural Resources (98.22 lakh shares) were the other volume toppers in that order.

Unitech clocked the highest turnover of Rs 321.38 crore on BSE. Reliance Industries (Rs 185.70 crore), ICICI Bank (Rs 184.75 crore), Reliance Industrial Infrastructure (Rs 165.27 crore) and Reliance Capital (Rs 154.45 crore) were the other turnover toppers in that order.

Bulls back with vengeance

After registering a loss of 370 points yesterday, today the Sensex was 90 points up, at 11092, at opening bell on the back of positive global leads.
Maintaining its upward bias thereafter, extensive buying in information technology, banking, technology and oil & gas stocks saw it edge past 11400 mark and touch an intra-day high of 11430, up 428 points for the day. The Sensex wrapped the session 402 points higher at 11403. The 50-share Nifty of the NSE finished at 3474 points, up 112 points.

Market breadth, the number of advancing shares to declining shares, was exceedingly positive for BSE. Of the 2,546 stocks traded, 1,432 stocks advanced while 1,028 stocks declined. Eighty six stocks ended unchanged. All the 13 sectoral indices ended higher. BSE IT, the index of IT shares, flared up by 4.95% followed by the BSE Bankex (up 4.47%), so did BSE Teck (up 3.99%) and BSE Oil & Gas (up 3.48%). Other indices were up 1-3% each.

Except Grasim Industries, all other index stocks ended higher. ICICI Bank was the day's star performer, up 8.74% at Rs477.75. Among other major gainers, JP Associates surged 6.85% at Rs138.80, Sterlite Industries vaulted 6.75% at Rs383.20, Tata Power spurted 6.60% at Rs893.95, Infosys Technologies jumped by 5.29% at Rs1507.30, Reliance Infrastructure scaled up by 4.99% at Rs695.20, Wipro advanced by 4.79% at Rs330.50, Hindustan Unilever added 4.20% at Rs234.55 and Tata Consultancy Services rose 4.11% at Rs623.20. Grasim Industries, the only stock posting loss for the day, slumped 0.54% at Rs1,778.40.

IT stocks upgraded to higher levels on the back of firm Asian indices. Patni Computer Systems soared 7.41% at Rs161.55, Financial Technologies India rose 6.94% at Rs707.65, Rolta India zoomed 5.91% at Rs79.70, Infosys Technologies advanced 5.29% at Rs1507.30, Oracle shot up by 4.93% at Rs883.85 and Wipro added 4.79% at Rs330.50.

Over 7.41 crore shares of Unitech changed hands on the BSE followed by Cals refineries (5.88 crore shares), JP Associates (1.10 crore shares), Reliance Natural Resources (1.10 crore shares) and Suzlon Energy (0.98 lakh shares).

Pre Session Commentary - Apr 29 2009

Today domestic markets are likely to open positive as we expect some bounce back after yesterday’s carnage. US markets closed flat and the Asian markets have opened with phenomenal gains. Today is the F&O expiry and there could be some cautiousness amongst investors while taking fresh positions. One may witness a range bound trade during the day’s trading session.

On Tuesday, domestic markets nose dived to close with heavy losses. Ahead of the F&O expiry tomorrow, investors were cautious while trading and there was no support till the end. The southward movement started since the opening bell amidst negative cues from other markets. Selling pressure was persistent across broader level and high intensity dent was witnessed in sectors like Realty, Metal, Bankex and Capital Goods stocks as they lost 5.70%, 5.66%, 4.97% and 4.17% respectively. IT was the only sector that conceded a minimal loss of 0.69% respectively. We expect the markets to be trading range bound.

The BSE Sensex closed lower by 370.10 points at 11,001.75 and NSE Nifty ended low by 107.65 points at 3,362.35. BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with losses of 133.57 points and 138.82 points at 3,450.71 and 3,888.32 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 11,375.97 and intraday low of 10,961.76.

On Tuesday, the US stock markets closed flat. The financial stocks were under pressure after a report from The Wall Street Journal stated that Bank of America and Citigroup may need to raise billions to satisfy the government''s bank stress tests. However on the other hand markets were supported by news from the Conference Board which reported its Consumer Confidence Index for April that improved to 39.2 from 26.9. The reading was expected to come in at 29.7. IBM also provided some support to the broader market by increasing its quarterly cash dividend by $0.05 to $0.55 per share and authorizing $3 billion in funds for stock repurchases. US light crude oil futures for June fell by 0.6% at $49.83 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) declined by 8.05 points to close at 8,016.95 The NASDAQ Composite (RIXF) index fell by 5.60 points to close at 1,673.81 and the S&P 500 (SPX) declined by 2.35 points to close at 855.16.

Today major stock markets in Asia are trading positive. Shanghai composite is up by 25.14 at 2,426.55. Hang Seng is trading up by 367.52 points at 14,922.63 followed by, Strait Times which is up by 25.83 points at 1,834.24. While Taiwan Weighted is also up by 35.69 points at 5,632.42 and Seoul Composite points is also up by 29.09 points at 1,329.33 respectively. Japanese market is closed today.

Indian ADRs ended mostly lower. In technology sector, Infosys ended down by 0.03% along with Satyam by 3.80%. Further, Wipro lost 0.76% whereas Patni Computers closed up by 0.41%. In banking sector ICICI Bank lost 1.90% and HDFC Bank dropped by 1.22%. In telecommunication sector Tata Communication gained 0.78% whereas MTNL declined by 1.03%.

The FIIs on Tuesday stood as net buyers in equity and debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 3,661.80 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 1,738.00 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 1,822.10 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs. 1,629.60 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs 1,839.70 Crore and Rs 108.40 Crore respectively.

On Tuesday, the Rupee closed at Rs.50.52/53, 0.6% weaker than its previous close of Rs. 50.23/25. The rupee fell due to huge fall in the local stock markets creating concerns of green back inflow.

On BSE, total number of shares traded were 37.71 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 4,255.07 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded was 82.66 Crore and total turnover was Rs 13,316.06 Crore.

Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with total volume traded 67849898 shares, followed by Suzlon Energy with 32086014 shares, ICICI Bank with 17372521 shares, SAIL 16494862 shares and DLF with 12512617 shares respectively.

On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 1344601 with a total turnover of Rs 22,263.34 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 707542 with a total turnover of Rs 26,191.38 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1793975 with a total turnover of Rs 30,819.70 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 46395 and notional turnover was Rs 1,863.46 Crore.

Today, Nifty would have a support at 3,304 and resistance at 3,410 and BSE Sensex has support at 10,845 and resistance at 11,115.

Market seen higher; volatility may zoom F&O expiry

Key benchmark indices are seen opening strong on the back of positive Asian indices. The SGX Nifty futures for April 2009 expiry surged 52.50 points in Singapore. However volatility may hit roof with derivatives contracts for April 2009 series expiring today, 29 April 2009.

Aggregate results of 475 firms showed 3.6% fall in net profit on 4.5% rise in sales in Q4 March 2009 over Q4 March 2008.

Expiry of derivatives contracts today, 29 April 2009 may heighten volatility on the bourses. As per reports, rollover of Nifty positions from April 2009 series to May 2009 series stood at 61% while those of stock futures were 54%, as on Tuesday, 28 April 2009.

Political uncertainty, with polling for India's 15th Lok Sabha underway, may also prop volatility. The month-long parliamentary elections that began on 16 April 2009 will conclude on 13 May 2009 with results due on 16 May 2009. Poll estimates point to a fractured mandate.

Meanwhile, turnover on the bourses may take a hit with traders refraining to take freh positions ahead of a long weekend. The stock market will remain shut on Thursday, 30 April 2009 as voting takes place in Mumbai for the parliamentary elections and also on Friday, 1 May 2009 on account of Maharashtra Day.

Asian indices were trading higher today, 29 April 2009 on encouraging earnings declaration from corporates and after South Korea's central bank reported a widening of the nation's current-account surplus. Key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, rose by between 0.65% and 2.34%. The Japanese markets are shut for a holiday

US stocks fell modestly on Tuesday, 28 April 2009 as fresh worries that major banks may need to raise more money overshadowed IBM's dividend boost and reassuring economic data that suggested the economic cycle may be at its bottom. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 8.05 points, or 0.10%, to 8,016.95, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 2.35 points, or 0.27%, to 855.16. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 5.60 points, or 0.33%, to 1,673.81.

Back home, Indian stocks joined global sell off on Tuesday, 28 April 2009 after the Wall Street Journal reported Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. were told by US regulators that they need more capital. The BSE 30-share Sensex lost 370.10 points or 3.25% to 11,001.75 and the S&P CNX Nifty slipped 107.65 points or 3.1% to 3,362.35.

As per the provisional figures on the NSE, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 256.85 crore on Tuesday, 28 April 2009 while domestic institutional investors sold shares worth Rs 202.15 crore.

Bullion metals end lower

Swine flu concerns take precious metals lower

Precious metals (gold and silver) ended lower on Tuesday, 28 April, 2009. They traded in the red for the entire session. Prices fell as worries about the current swine flu swept across the world today.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Tuesday, Comex Gold for June delivery lost $14.6 (1.6%) to close at $893.6 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold ended higher by 5.3%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 0.9%.

For the month of March, gold fell 2.1%, down for the first month in five. But the metal gained 4.3% in the first quarter. Before March, for the month of February, gold ended higher by 7.4%. For January, 2009, gold had gained 3.9%.

On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (15%) since then.

On Tuesday, Comex silver futures for May delivery lost 55.5 cents (4.3%) at $12.4 an ounce. Year to date, silver has climbed 9.2% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.

The deadly swine-flu outbreak, originated in Mexico, has fueled fears of a repeat of the SARS epidemic that had ravaged Asia. In Mexico, more than 1,641 people have contracted the swine flu and 103 people have died. The World Health Organization raised its swine-flu threat level on Tuesday, which now stands just two steps short of a full pandemic. The WHO also said it was now too late to contain the virus.

The IMF forecast earlier during the month a 1.3% decline in the world economy, compared with a 0.5% expansion estimated in January, and said growth will be slower next year than previously expected. As per the report, the UK will see its economy shrink by 4.1%, Japan by 6.2%, and the U.S. economy is expected to decline by 2.8%

In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.

Last year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March 2008 as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the last move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 0.25% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in nine steps.

Prior to 2008, gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

At the MCX, gold prices for June delivery closed lower by Rs 195 (1.3%) at Rs 14,515 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,691 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,459 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for May delivery closed Rs 580 (2.7%) lower at Rs 20,879/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 21,270/kg and fell to a low of Rs 20,737/Kg during the day's trading.

Tech Mahindra

Tech Mahindra

Sterlite Industries

Sterlite Industries

Market may remain volatile

After witnessing a slump of over 370 points in last trade, the market is likely to remain shaky on weak global markets. Although FIIs and domestic mutual funds have been providing cushion by remaining net buyers, the sentiment is likely to remain bullish. Among the key domestic indices, the Nifty may get support at 3300 and may test higher levels at 3400. The Sensex has a likely support at 10850 and on the upside could test 11150 levels.

US Indices tumbled marginally on Tuesday, oas a stronger-than-expected consumer confidence report competed with jitters about the health of U.S. banks and the possible economic impact of swine flu. While the Dow Jones tumbling by 8 points to close at 8016. The Nasdaq declined 6 points on weak tech stocks and closed at 1674.

Except Patni Computers & VSNL, all the Indian ADRs ended negative. Rediff plummeted 4.69% and Satyam crashed 3.80% while, Infosys, Wipro, Dr Reddy, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and MTNL dropped around 1% each.

Crude oil prices fell further, with the Nymex light crude oil for July series slipped by 45 cents to close at $49.47 a barrel. In the commodity segment, the Comex gold for June delivery slumped $14.60 to settle at $893.60 an ounce.

ICICI

ICICI

Exide Industries

Exide Industries

Mindtree

Mindtree

Daily News Roundup - Apr 29 2009

Reliance Industries and power companies ink agreements on KG gas. (FE)

Vedanta Resources has bought 9.5% stake in Hudbay Minerals, a Canadian mining company for US$80mn. (ET)

Some Tata group companies led by Tata Motors are in talks with merchant bankers to float debt securities. (ET)

SEBI has sought clarifications from Bharti Airtel on stake hike in the company by way of creeping acquisitions. (BS)

Morgan Stanley picks up 5.1% in Unitech for Rs4bn via QIP. (ET)

PNB may cut deposit and lending rates. (BL)

Wipro BPO to hire 1,200 at Hyderabad unit in 6 months. (ET)

Petronet LNG is eyeing gas fields in Papua New Guinea and Australia in partnership with ONGC. (BS)

IOC plans to shut half of its Panipat refinery for 45-50days in March-April next year to raise its capacity to 300,000bpd. (ET)

Reliance Big TV plans to divest 49% in DTH arm. (BS)

ABB bags Rs4.25bn orders from Power Grid. (BS)

Dr Reddy’s Lab launches a variety of gel (Nexret) used in the treatment of skin diseases. (FE)

Britannia Industries to buy out New Zealand’s Fonterra from an existing dairy JV. (ET)

3i Infotech to buy JP Morgan Treasury Services National Retail Lockbox business to expand capacity and capabilities of its unit Regulus. (ET)

KPIT Cummins freezes hiring; cuts variable pay by 50%. (ET)

AB Nuvo is restructuring its retail garment business to save at least Rs1bn through a slew of cost-cutting measures. (ET)

Maytas Infra is likely to divest some projects nearing completion in a bid to raise funds to complete other assignments. (BS)

According to MET, monsoon could arrive one week early. (FE)

RBI allows Indian companies to buy back FCCBs up to US$100mn. (FE)

Retail prices of several ant-diabetes and anti-fungal drugs will come down following cut in prices of bulk drugs by NPPA. (ET)

Government may impose additional import duty of 20% on some paper products. (BS)

Suspense before intermission!

Make your life a mission - not an intermission.

There are many screens to watch these days from the trading screen to the elections and of course the latest on what few would understand- swine flu. Before the market takes a big break, we are in for a volatile session as traders weigh their moves in the F&O segment today. The uncertainty surrounding Lok Sabha elections and anxiety over the banks’ stress test results in the US may keep a lid on gains. Nagging concerns over the swine flu outbreak and its impact on the tentative global recovery will keep the bulls in check.

The Indian stock market will be shut on Thursday and Friday for elections and Maharashtra Day, respectively. Most players would prefer to stay nimble to mitigate potential risks from any untoward development over the long weekend. The key indices are likely to open a tad higher given the modest gains in some Asian markets and flat finish on Wall Street. Some short-covering led advance if it happens is unlikely to go too far. Remain guarded as the relief rally may soon run out of gas, especially if there is no incremental good news.

Key Results Today: Alok Industries, Alstom Projects, Apollo Tyres, Aptech, Bank of India, Bharti Airtel, Canara Bank, CEAT, Dabur India, Dena Bank, Elder Pharma, Garware Offshore, GTL Infra, GVK Power, ICSA India, Ingersol Rand, JK Tyre, KS Oils, KEC International, MTNL, Moser Baer, Nagarjuna Fertilizers, Titan and Videocon Industries.

FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment on Tuesday at Rs2.56bn (provisional) while the local institutions pulled out Rs2.02bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net sellers at Rs5.98bn. On Monday, FIIs pumped in Rs18.4bn in the cash segment.

US stocks ended a volatile session in the red on Tuesday, as worries over the swine flu epidemic coupled with concerns about the health of the leading banks offset encouraging reports on consumer sentiment and house prices.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 8.05 points, or 0.1%, to close at 8,016.95. The S&P 500 Index fell 2.35 points, or 0.3%, to end at 855.16, while the Nasdaq Composite index shed 5.6 points, or 0.3%, to shut shop at 1,673.81.

Bank of America and Citigroup slumped on a Wall Street Journal report that government stress tests may show the lenders need more cash to shore up balance sheets. Delta Air Lines slid on concern that swine flu will reduce travel. General Motors (GM) tumbled as bondholders said a plan to exchange $27 billion in debt for equity is unreasonable.

Benchmark US indexes fluctuated throughout the day as the decline in banks was offset by gains in consumer shares after the Conference Board’s confidence index climbed the most since November 2005.

This week, investors have been keeping an eye on the banks and the latest reports on the swine flu outbreak. The two biggest longer-term issues that remain unresolved are a bottom in the housing market and the potential need for more capital among the country's banks.

The April consumer confidence index rose to 39.2 from a revised 26.9 in the previous month. Economists thought it would improve to 29.7.

The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price index fell 18.6% in February from a year ago, extending the losing streak to 31 months. But it was the first time since October 2007 that the index didn't hit a record low in its year-over-year drop.

Concerns about the economic impact of the swine flu outbreak remained in place as health officials have confirmed at least 90 cases of the disease worldwide and 50 in the United States. Economists are concerned that should the outbreak become a large-scale pandemic, it would hurt the global economic recovery attempt.

The number of confirmed cases of swine flu in the US jumped to 64 as global health officials monitored New York City as a second possible epicenter for the international outbreak. As many as 152 people have died in Mexico with suspected swine flu. The virus has taken its biggest hold in four states in Mexico.

The UK, Israel, Canada, New Zealand and Spain have also confirmed cases. The World Health Organization (WHO) said it was watching New York to see whether the virus has become rooted in another country, a finding that would boost the agency’s pandemic alert system.

Bank of America and Citigroup will need to raise more capital, according to initial government "stress tests," the Wall Street Journal reported. Regulators reportedly told the banks that they need to boost their reserves to prepare for a potential worsening of the economy.

Results of Treasury's tests of the largest US banks aren't due until next week. Citi, saying it couldn't disclose test results, issued a statement assuring that its capital base is strong. Bank of America shares fell 8.6%, Citi dropped 6% and the KBW Bank sector index fell 3%.

Chrysler said it has made a deal with its creditors to reduce $7 billion in loans, inching it closer to resolving its financial crisis. Over the weekend, the automaker said it won key concessions from its union. The company also needs to hammer out a deal with Italian automaker Fiat ahead of the Thursday deadline to avoid bankruptcy.

Both Chrysler and GM have been getting by on billions in government aid. GM has until June 1 to cut debt and avoid bankruptcy. On Monday, the company announced a broad restructuring plan.

Pfizer reported lower quarterly earnings that topped expectations on lower revenue that missed expectations. The company saw sales of its blockbuster Lipitor lose out to cheaper generic versions. However, cost cutting helped limit any declines.

Bristol-Myers Squibb reported weaker earnings that topped estimates on higher revenue that missed estimates. The company was hurt by weaker sales of Erbitux, its colon cancer medicine.

IBM said that it will increase its quarterly dividend by 10% and will buy another $3 billion of its outstanding stock.

Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.01% from 2.92% on Monday.

Lending rates were mixed. The 3-month Libor rate fell to 1.04% from 1.05% on Monday. The overnight Libor rate was unchanged at 0.21%. Libor is a bank-to-bank lending rate.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.

US light crude oil for June delivery slipped 90 cents to settle at $49.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $14.60 to settle at $893.60 an ounce.

European shares fell on Tuesday as bank stocks took a beating on capital concerns, while shares in travel and tourism firms were hit once again amid continued fears of an influenza pandemic. The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index fell 1.5% to 193.57.

The UK's FTSE 100 index fell 1.7% to 4,096.40, while Germany's DAX 30 index lost 1.9% to 4,607.42 and the French CAC-40 index declined 1.7% to 3,051.02.

Indian markets ended with sharp losses on Tuesday on the back of a heavy sell off witnessed all over. Selling was not only seen in the India but also across Asia and Europe. The Nikkei and the Hang Seng index both slipped over 2% each. Stocks in Europe as well were in the red, the FTSE and the DAX index were down by over 2% each. The BSE Sensex plunged 370 points to close at 11,001 and the NSE Nifty fell by 108 points at 3,362.

All the 30-components of Sensex ended in negative terrain with DLF, Reliance Infra, Tata Steel, Sterlite, RCom, HDFC and ICICI Bank among the major laggards.

Among the BSE Sectoral indices BSE Realty index was the top loser, the index lost 5.7%. Among the other major losers were BSE Metal index (down 5.6%), BSE Bankex index (down 5%), BSE Capital Goods index (down 4.1%) and BSE Power index (down 3.7%)

Shares of Pfizer gained by a percent to Rs721 as reports stated that the company has emerged as the frontrunner to acquire RFCL’s animal health unit, Vetnex, in a deal estimated ~Rs2.5bn. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs750 and a low of Rs711 and recorded volumes of over 16,000 shares on BSE.

Shares of Wockhardt Pharma declined by 7% to Rs89. According to reports, lenders have sought more clarity on the extent and nature of its huge foreign exchange losses before initiating any restructuring of the company’s outstanding credit. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs97 and a low of Rs88 and recorded volumes of over 0.14mn shares on BSE.

Shares of Britannia Industries advanced by 1.5% to Rs1565 after hitting an intra-day high of Rs1580 and a low of Rs1520.

The stock gained after the company announced that it has entered into an agreement with M/s. Fonterra Brands (Mauritius Holding) Ltd, Mauritius, for acquiring the latter's 49% Equity and Preference shareholding in Britannia New Zealand Foods Pvt Ltd (BNZF), their Joint Venture Company engaged in Dairy business. This acquisition is subject to Reserve Bank of India approval.

With this acquisition, Britannia along with its wholly owned subsidiary will hold the entire Equity and Preference capital of BNZF.

Shares of Biocon edged lower by 0.4% to Rs145. The company posted a net profit of Rs248.80mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs653mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2008.

Total Income increased from Rs2792.20mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs4865.60mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2009. The scrip has touched an intra-day high of Rs153 and a low of Rs136 and has recorded volumes of over 0.3mn shares on NSE.

Shares of GlaxoSmithKline advanced by 1% to Rs1178 after the company posted a net profit of Rs1432.7mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2009 as compared to Rs1212.7mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2008.

Total Income increased from Rs4342.5mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2008 to Rs4609.8mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2009. The scrip has touched an intra-day high of Rs1215 and a low of Rs1175 and has recorded volumes of over 4,000 shares on NSE.

After a sharp correction, markets may turn volatile on account of F&O expiry. All the possible good news is already in the price. And, we are only talking about tentative signs of improvement. Traders and investors would turn cautious as the week is yet again truncated.

FIIs net sellers

The Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net sellers of Rs 598.07 crore in futures and options segment on Tuesday.

According to data released by the NSE, FIIs were net sellers of index futures to the tune of Rs 796.83 crore while bought index options worth Rs 336.21 crore. They were net sellers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 114.05 crore and sold stock options worth Rs 23.4 crore.

SGX Nifty Live Update - Apr 29 2009

Apr 09 3,396.0 +34.0

May 09 3,409.0 +40.5

Unitech

We recommend a sell in Unitech from a short-term trading perspective. After finding support around Rs 25 in early March, the stock began to trend upward as is evident from the charts. The stock price almost doubled from the March low to April peak. However, this medium-term uptrend encountered resistance around Rs 57 in the middle of April. The stock formed a shooting star reversal candlestick pattern and changed its trend downward. Moreover, a negative divergence displayed in the daily relative strength index (RSI) backs this reversal. On April 22, the stock fell 9 per cent, confirming the reversal. Subsequently the stock breached its medium-term up trend-line too. The daily RSI has entered the neutral region from the bullish zone and is gradually loosing momentum. The daily moving average convergence and divergence indicator is signalling a sell. We notice that the volumes are declining steadily in line with the short-term downtrend. Our short-term outlook on the stock is bearish. We anticipate it to decline further until it hits our price target of Rs 38 in the near future. Traders with short-term trading horizon can sell the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 45.5.

Turnover surges

Nifty April 2009 futures were at 3359, at a discount of 3.35 points as compared to the spot closing of 3362.35. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment surged to Rs 81,137.88 crore from Rs 75,777.22 crore on Monday, 27 April 2009.

The near-month April 2009 futures contract will expire tomorrow, 29 April 2009, as the stock market remains closed on Thursday, 30 April 2009 on account of voting for the parliamentary elections in Mumbai on 30 April 2009. As per reports, rollover of Nifty positions from April 2009 series to May 2009 series stood at 48% while those of stock futures were 37%, as on Monday, 27 April 2009.

State Bank of India April 2009 futures were at premium at 1237 compared to the spot closing of 1235.60.

ICICI Bank April 2009 futures were at discount at 438.25 compared to the spot closing of 439.20.

Axis Bank April 2009 futures were at discount at 528 compared to the spot closing of 530.70.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 107.65 points or 3.10% at 3362.35.