Thursday, December 07, 2006
Less participation in the market as investors took out money resulting indices to trade ranged. Global markets too witnessing selling pressure but Asian indices managed to close in a mixed bag. European Central Bank reported that it has kept the interest rate unchanged while fueled buying in European markets which is trading up. Seletive midcaps and small caps along with few Index heavyweigths kept momentum on the indices. Banking, software and others traded mixed. European markets are trading firm while the Asian markets closed in mix.
Sensex ended up by 23 points at 13972.03. It is helped up by gains in Hindalco (183.4,+3 percent), NTPC (151.7,+2 percent), RIL (1300.75,+2 percent), Tata Motors (892.2,+1 percent) and HDFC Bk (1101.65,+1 percent). Restricting the gains are Hero Honda (749.85,-2 percent), HDFC (1565.55,-2 percent), RCVL (456.3,-1 percent), Bharti Tele (638.25,-1 percent) and ACC (1133.4,-1 percent).
The government's reluctance to raise ban on export of sugar along with bumper crop in the current harvest season has created negative sentiments on the sector outlook on the medium term basis. The output in the current season is expected to increase the inventories and lend pressure on margins. India's sugar output for the current season is seen at 23 milion tonne (MT), while the consumption is pegged at 19.5 MT. Sugar industry has planned significant capacity addition going forward, thus debt protection is going to deteriorate to an extent. And Govt is expected meet tomorrow to review about the Ban on exports. Sugar stocks have been witnessing weakness in medium terms if the ban is removed expect the good times to return here. Sugar stocks traded weak for the day.
Tata motors dream one lakh Rs car is facing problems regarding the land acquisition. The company has faced violent protests from the opposition parties in Bengal on this issue of agricultural land being sold for Industrial use but the issue seems to settling down as the Orissa government has asked the company to set up that plant in Gopalpur in Orissa where it already has vast streches of land under its possession. The state government is also interested in providing infrastructure facilities for the plant. As of nothing negative for the company as all auto stocks traded mixed.
Technically Speaking: Sensex touched 14k for second time but failed to sustain and made low of 13915. Market churned a turnover of Rs 3787cr. Overall the advance decline ration was 1:1. The Resistance level was at 14005-14047 while Support at 13918-13873 levels. Overal Market Volume was at its lowest in the year.
The market displayed a volatile trend with alternate bouts of buying and selling. The Sensex opened with a positive gap of 14 points and moved up initially to touch an intra-day high of 14003. However the sentiment turned bearish in the afternoon and the index dipped to the day's low of 13916. The Sensex recouped its losses on selective buying interest and ended the trading session at 13972, up 23 points. The Nifty was down a point at 4015. The market breadth was marginally positive on the BSE. Of the 2,656 stocks traded, 1,302 stocks advanced, 1,293 stocks declined and 61 stocks ended unchanged.
The sectoral indices were mixed. Among the gainers the BSE CG index was up 1.14%. The BSE Auto index, the BSE Bankex, the BSE CD index, the BSE Metal index, the BSE Oil & Gas index and the PSU index closed in positive territory. However, the BSE FMCG index, the BSE HC index, the BSE IT index and the BSE Teck index exhibited weakness.
Among the Sensex stocks Hindalco surged 3.21% at Rs183, NTPC gained 2.43% at Rs152, Reliance Industries jumped 1.61% at Rs1,301, Tata Motors added 1.32% at Rs892, HDFC Bank advanced 1.21% at Rs1,102 and BHEL was up 1.07% at Rs2,649. ICICI Bank, HLL, Satyam Computers and SBI reported steady gains. However, Hero Honda dropped 2.29% at Rs750, HDFC shed 1.51% at Rs1,566, Reliance Communication dropped 1.34% at Rs456, Bharti Airtel dipped 1.32% at Rs638 and ACC was down 1.03% at 1,133. Infosys, Ranbaxy, Wipro, Bajaj Auto and ITC closed with marginal losses.
Among the other stocks i-Gate Global surged 7.28% at Rs260, IndusInd Bank soared 6.02% at Rs48 and ABB advanced 5.70% at Rs3,889. Adani Enterprises, Bharat Electricals, Jaiprakash Associates and Kotak Bank gained around 4% each.
Gujarat Themis Biosyn at Rs14.27 and Cyber System at Rs12.41 hit the lower circuit on the BSE. On the other hand Adani Enterprises at Rs232.50 hit the upper circuit.
Over 39.08 lakh Ashok Leyland shares changed hands on the BSE followed by Sterlite Biotech (36.43 lakh shares), Hindalco (15.94 lakh shares), Parsvnath (15.66) and Lanco Infra (15.73 lakh shares).
The market ended with a small gain today amid a divergent trend in the constituents of the Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark index. Index heavyweights, Reliance Industries and Infosys, moved in opposite direction; the former gained while the latter slipped.
Tata Motors, NTPC and Hindustan Lever (HLL) firmed up in late trading. Shipping firms and power equipment makers were in demand.
The Sensex rose 23.03 points (0.17%), a record closing, to settle at 13,972.03.
The market had firmed up in late-trading, when the Sensex had risen as many as 53.72 points, to a high of 14,002.72 at 15:01 IST. But it failed to sustained higher level, and eased at the fag end of the trading session.
The Sensex fluctuated within a narrow range during mid-morning to afternoon trade. In early-trade, the benchmark index was gripped by high volatility.
The advance-decline ratio was even. For 1,286 shares that declined on BSE, 1,283 shares rose. As many as 68 scrips were unchanged. The market-breadth weakened during the course of the trading. There was an advance-decline ratio of 1.45:1 at about 11:20 IST.
The BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 3,787 crore.
Reliance Industries rose 1.4% to Rs 1,298.45. A recent report by brokerage CLSA said, RIL’s recently submitted revised field development plan indicated potential crude reserves of 1.6 billion barrels in the block. It said the oil find was in addition to RIL’s previous similar discovery in another exploration block KG-III-6. Recently, there were unconfirmed reports that RIL is close to acquiring Adani Retail. If this acquisition materializes, it will provide RIL with retail infrastructure and real estate for Gujarat operations.
Hindalco Industries rose 3% to Rs 183.30. The stock rose for the second day in a row following reports that China’s aluminium imports are rising.
NTPC rose 2.3% to Rs 151.50. The stock rose in late-trading. In a recent report dated 5 December 2006, Merrill Lynch has raised the price target on the scrip, to Rs 180. Its revised price target is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. The brokerages have raised their earnings estimates for NTPC.
Tata Motors (up 1.2% to Rs 892) firmed up in the last one hour of trade after being subdued for the most part. Early this week, the stock had surged on the back of strong sales for the month just gone by.
Bhel rose 1.6% to Rs 2,665. The stock hit Rs 2,668, a life high for the scrip.
Infosys shed 1.1% to Rs 2,220.
Bharti Airtel dropped in volatile trade. The stock shed 1.5% to Rs 637.10. In early-afternoon trade, the stock had lost as much as 1.9% to a low of Rs 634, after reports filtered in that it had added more than 1.35 million users in the month just gone by. It had later recovered to Rs 644 at 14:17 IST ( a fall of 0.4% for the day) after reports that it added 1.65 million new users in November 2006.
Soybean: Volatile moves
Soybean futures closed lower after opening higher. The spot prices were higher due to continued buying by the extractors. However, bird flu has turned the sentiment very weak in the entire soy complex. Stock liquidation by the wholesalers due to fears of a drop in soy meal prices because of the bird flu scare in South Korea also kept the prices down
Buy Voltamp Transformers at Rs 707-689. Stop Loss at Rs 665. Target of Rs 724-782 (Delivery-based Call)
Buy Gwalior Chemicals at Rs 100.50. Stop Loss at Rs 97 (Intra-day Call)
Buy Century Textiles at Rs 701. Stop Loss at Rs 687. Target of Rs 711-738 (Delivery-based Call)
Buy Nelco around Rs 102.25 with stop loss of Rs 101 (Intra-Day Call)
Buy Century Textiles around Rs 686 with stop loss of Rs 680 (Intra-Day Call)
Buy Vimta Labs around Rs 191.05 with stop loss of Rs 185 (Intra-Day Call)
Buy Indian Hotels with a stop loss of Rs 150 for target of Rs 185
Buy Yes Bank with a stop loss of Rs 120 for target of Rs 160
Buy United Spirits below Rs 882 with stop loss of Rs 865; This is a day-trading recommendation.
Short sell Matrix Labs above Rs 268.50 with stop loss of Rs Rs 272; This is a day-trading recommendation.
Buy Mid-Day Multimedia with a stop loss below Rs 49.50 for target of Rs 58.50
Buy Nelco with a stop loss below Rs 98.70 for target of Rs 107
NIFTY (4015.95) SUP 3997 RES 4034
BUY KOTAKBANK (384.45)
SL 380 T 395, 397
BUY HINDALC0 (177.9)
SL 174 T 184, 186
BUY HEROHONDA (771)
SL 765 T 780, 782
SELL JAGRAN (305)
@ 309 SL 314 T 298, 295
SELL GUJAMBCEM (140)
@ 142 SL 144 T 136, 134
Don't worry, stay in control
It makes no sense to worry about things you have no control over because there's nothing you can do about them, and why worry about things you do control? The activity of worrying keeps you immobilized.
Are Indian bulls finally tiring. May be. May be not. The immediate trend is not particularly clear, though the fundamentals remain strong as ever. The rally has not been as broadbased as earlier. If inflows from overseas continues at the current speed, it would be hard to stop the bulls. Still, it pays to be alert and look for signs of weakness. The Sensex has crossed the 14k mark, and though the temptation to push it towards 15k is strong, one should not get carried away. From here on one may see some profit taking after every rise. And even if you don't see it happening, do it yourself. Start locking in some gains at regular intervals and wait for a dip to resume buying. We expect to see a cautious opening on the back of mixed global cues. After that trading could turn volatile like yesterday.
The US market ended down overnight, while the Asian markets are mixed in the morning trade. Crude oil is hovering above the $62 per barrel mark. Markets were also lower in Europe and Latin America.
FIIs were net buyers of Rs3.04bn (provisional) in the cash segment yesterday. In the F&O space, they pulled out Rs1.96bn. On Tuesday, Mutual Funds pumped in Rs505mn in the cash segment. The FII figure for the same day is not available.
UTV could gain on expectations that the company is set to acquire a gaming company in India. The company is also expected to wrap up funding for a full length Hollywood animation film.
Cement stocks are gaining on expectations of another price lise. Buzz of M&A activity continues unabated.
Mutual funds investors are holding on to their positions. No signs of profit booking at higher levels. The tragedy is when markets correct sharply they end up selling, like many did in May. The mutual fund industry grew by Rs320.37bn between November and December when Sensex gained 734 points to reach 13,700 levels.
Aditya Birla Group Company Idea Cellular has approached market regulator SEBI for clearance of an initial public offering, hoping to mop up an estimated Rs25bn.
SEL Manufacturing Company Ltd, manufacturer and exporter of cotton yarn, knitted fabrics and garments, has filed its draft red herring prospectus with SEBI to enter the capital market with an IPO. The company proposes to offer 53.99 lakh equity shares of Rs 10 each through a 100 per cent book building process to part finance its expansion plan of Rs1.84bn.
The Central Board of Trustees (CBT) of the employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) will meet on Thursday to decide on the rate of interest to be paid to the nearly four crore provident fund subscribers for fiscal 2006-07.
The Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, called for creation of an informed public opinion on financial sector reforms in the absence of political consensus on the issue.
With West Bengal waking up to the potential of ICT and bringing niche capability in the Indian market, the country's software exports should be pegged higher at $200 billion by 2010 as against the earlier projection of $100 billion, according to the President, Mr A.P.J. Abdul Kalam.
BSE Consumer Durable index was the major loser and lost 2.47%. BSE Pharma index (down 0.72%), BSE Auto index (down 0.69%), BSE FMCG index (down 0.60%) and BSE PSU index (down 0.33%) were among the other major losers.
SAIL, Adani Enterprises, IDBI, Satyam Computer, Voltas, R Com, DCB, Tata Steel, Gujarat Ambuja, Zee Telefilms, Rain Calcining, Reliance Industries, ITC, Indian Hotels, Century Textiles, HLL.
BHEL, CEAT, Century Textiles, Dabur India, GTC Industries, HLL, India Infoline, Indian Hotels, Infosys Technologies, McDowell & Co, Nitco Tiles, ONGC, TCS, Tata Tea and Yes Bank.
Upper Circuit Filters:
Adani Enterprises, Ambalal Sarabhai, GTC Industries, Chowgule Steamship Ltd, Flex Engineering, Atlanta, Pantaloon Retail and Nirlon Ltd.
Infosys – Outperform from CLSA
Long Term Investment:
Major News Headlines:
Satyam sets up Offshore Development Center for Sony Europe
Indian Oil in talks with Reliance for City Gas distribution
TCS wins contract from United Biscuits, UK
GMR Infra unveils master plan for re-development of Delhi airport
Panacea Biotec forms JV with the UK's Cambridge Biostability
Rain Commodities to consider hike in FII limit on Dec 11
Dabur Pharma gets USFDA nod for Cancer drug
Ispat plans expanding steel capacity to 5mn tons
Bayer Diagnostics Board declares interim dividend of Rs97
Royal Orchid Hotels signs an exclusive territorial agreement with Ramada Worldwide
Valecha Engineering Ltd.
VEL’s order book position at Rs8bn is a healthy 5.5x its FY06 sales. The company is awarded a significant part of its orders during the last nine months with order inflow rising to 4.6x FY06 sales. The company ramped up its networth through a preferential issue and GDR. Any announcement of an award of a BOT project on account of its increased financial muscle would lead to a positive surprise.
We expect an order intake in the region of Rs4bn during FY07, translating into an order intake of 1.8x its execution. Based on the present order book and the expected ones, we estimate VEL’s turnover to rise by 49.6% and 65.6% during FY07 and FY08 respectively.
VEL holds equity shares of Jyoti Structures, which translate into Rs76.9 per share of VEL diluted equity capital, which is 37.1% of the CMP. Besides, the stock is currently trading at its book value with a market capitalization of 0.9x its FY06 sales. This checks any significant downside to the stock from current levels.
The stock is trading at a P/E of 10.6x and a Price/CEPS of 8.3x its FY08E earnings and an EV/EBIDTA of 5.7x for the same period, which makes it a compelling buy. These estimates leave scope for upside from the company’s real estate foray. VEL, which generates 70% of its revenues from roads, offers good value, limited downside and high visibility for the next 2-3 years. The company has been consistent with dividend payments and 36% of the present equity is on account of bonus. We recommend a BUY with a one year price target of Rs294, based on a target enterprise value of 8x its FY08E EBIDTA and 50% discount to the two stocks held in its investment portfolio.
Flat close on D-Street
The bulls managed to scrape through with modest gains in a highly volatile trading session. After a fine opening, volatility and selling pressure dragged the BSE benchmark index lower to hit an intra-day low of 13847.67. However, markets recovered from day’s low on back of buying in Reliance Industries and Technology stocks. Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex closed flat at 13949. NSE Nifty closed flat at 4015. Other than Technology index all the other indices ended lower, with BSE Consumer Durable and Pharma index being among the major losers.
L&T edged higher 0.2% to Rs1462as the company seeks special status to bid for defense contracts. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1475 and a low of Rs1440 and has recorded volumes of over 7,00,000 shares on NSE.
Reliance Industries gained 0.2% to Rs1281 as reports stated that the company won two exploration blocks in Yemen. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs1298 and a low of Rs1270 and recorded volumes of over 31,00,000 shares on NSE.
Gujarat Ambuja fell by over 1.2% to Rs140. The company’s Cement November shipment was up 9% yoy at 1.31mn tons. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs143 and a low of Rs138 and recorded volumes of over 40,00,000 shares on NSE.
Indian Oil slipped 2.9% to Rs442. The company is in talks with Reliance Industries for City Gas distribution. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs460 and a low of Rs441 and recorded volumes of over 66,000 shares on NSE.
Pharma stocks were in bad health as selling pressure dragged them down. Cipla fell 1.8% to Rs248; Dr Reddy’s Lab was down 1.5% to Rs756 and Lupin dropped by over 1.2% to Rs549.
FMCG stocks were also on the receiving end. Colgate lost 2.4% to Rs383, Marico slipped 1.9% to Rs540, ITC dropped 1.1% toRs188 and Goderej Consumer lost 1.1% to Rs156.
Technology stocks the sole gainer, led by the Mid-Cap stocks HCI Infosystems rose 2.7% to Rs170, Polaris gained by over 1.7% to Rs133 and HCL Tech added 0.8% to Rs640. However among the heavy weights Infosys and Satyam Computer were the major gainers.
Metal stocks pared their intra-day gains towards the end on back of profit booking. Tisco, Hindustan Zinc, Sterlite Industries and National Aluminum were among the major losers.
There is absence of any clear direction today from Asian markets which were mixed. High volatility characterized Wednesday (6 December)’s trading when Sensex rose 11 points.
The market sentiment remains firm due to strong FII inflow, continued strong economic growth data and healthy corporate earnings. A lot of money is said to be waiting on the sidelines to enter the market at correction. Very few got an opportunity to ride the latest rally, it being a sharp and swift rally with the Sensex having risen 10% in a little over a month.
As per provisional data released by stock exchanges, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of Rs 304 crore on 6 December. Sebi is yet to release the final figure on FII trade pertaining to 5 December. Sebi releases daily FII figures with a time lag of one day. The cumulative FII inflow has reached $8.3 billion in 2006 compared to a record inflow of $10.7 billion in 2005.
FIIs were net sellers to the tune of Rs 295 crore in index based futures on 6 December. They were net buyers to the tune of Rs 50.52 crore in individual stock futures on that day.
Asian markets were mixed on Thursday. Key benchmark indices in Japan, Singapore and Taiwan were up by between 0.17% to 0.3%. Key benchmark indices in Hong Kong and South Korea were down by between 0.1% to 0.2%.
US stocks fell on Wednesday as concerns about the outlook for software maker Oracle Corporation hit technology shares and investors worried that stronger-than-expected job growth could delay a cut in interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 22.35 points, or 0.18 percent, to end at 12,309.25. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index finished off 1.86 points, or 0.13 percent, at 1,412.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 6.52 points, or 0.27 percent, to close at 2,445.86.
US crude oil for January delivery fell 24 cents to settle at $62.19 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday.
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Sensex closed in green ( as compared with yesterdays close ) marginally up by 11 points at 13949 levels with decent volume of Rs 4541 cr.
It was choppy session as Sensex opened with upside gap but failed to sustain above important 13990 levels and made a new low of 13847 levels as compared with yesterday.
Sensex has formed a Empty ( Bearish ) candle on 2nd consecutive days which indicates that the weakness in the trend will remain as it is. The Empty bearish candle which was created on 5th of this months still has importance for bearish scenario. To nuliffy the importance of this candle Sensex must hold above 13990 levels for next 2 days. If it does then 14180 level could be seen or else correction could be witness to 13760 or more.
Daily strategy : - If opens up and hold below 14030 levels then sell for the T1 of 13820 for the second half with Sl of 143940 levels.
Support 1) 13900 2) 13840 3) 13720 4) 13660
Resistance 1) 13990 2) 14040 imp 3) 14180 4) 14260
With strong global cues the market opened on positive note. Sensex moved swiftly in the early hours of trade but then investors started booking profits at the higher level. Market traded in a volatile mood with no clear direction and with every hour passing by it looked as if indices would end in negative territory....but Index heavyweights like Reliance Communications, Bharti Airtel and Ranbaxy held the indices to end up. Auto and Consumer Durables stocks weighed heavy on the indices while selective buying was seen in Pharma, Software and Banking stocks. Heavy selling was seen in Mid and Small Caps. Asian markets ended firm while European markets traded in a mixed bag.
Sensex ended up by 11 points at 13949. It was helped by gains in Ranbaxy (391.1,+2 percent), BHEL (2621.3501,+1 percent), Hindalco (177.7,+1 percent), Bharti Tele (646.8,+1 percent) and ICICI Bk (870.85,+1 percent). Restricting the gains are Rel Energy (542.3,-2 percent), Cipla (248.05,-2 percent), ACC (1145.15,-2 percent), ITC (187.5,-1 percent) and Guj Ambuja (140,-1 percent). topnew.gif (1104 bytes)
Dollar...weakness to continue; Technically support at 13847 - 13753
ONGC is in talks with Exxon Mobil to discuss various options for its share of gas from the Sakhalin fields in Russia. The Indian E&P major has been negotiating pricing issues with the Exxon Mobil consortium for importing liquefied natural gas to India from the Sakhalin gas fields. ONGC is also considering either giving the entire gas (ONGC Videsh's share in Sakhalin-I) to Sakhalin-II project or selling it to buyers in Japan or China. ONGC had earlier held discussions with Exxon Mobil for bringing in the gas as LNG, instead of selling it through a pipeline to a captive single buyer. Meanwhile, ONGC has already brought one cargo of Sakhalin crude to India and the second is expected by the end of this month. Oil production at Sakhalin-1 block is expected to reach the optimum level in 1QFY08 and fetch India 50,000 barrels per day of oil, besides gas. Inherent nature of natural gas requires it to be converted into LNG before transportation. Thus, ONGC is trying to get LNG via Exxon Mobil from the blocks. ONGC and GAIL both ended up but marginally on back of this news.
As per the morning daily, the recent price hikes in the FMCG sector is not going to be the last one in the next six months. As per the industry players consumers should now get used to biannual price hikes as input and raw material prices continue to rise, with no respite in sight. The top management of one of the FMCG major Says FMCG companies will continue to pass the burden of increased costs to consumers. The management also added that FMCG companies may make it a norm to hike prices twice a year. The next round of price hike for could happen in the next 5-6 months. FMCG counter was mixed except Dabur whcih was up by 1.3%.
Iran replaces $ with ? in most oil dealings. Iran has decided to replace dollar with euro in its foreign trade given the continual impediments and hostile policies directed by U.S. toward the country. Dollar has been depriciating as China would divert its foreign investment. We could see more weakness in Dollar as funds shift to other currency. IT counter witness some pressure.
Technically Speaking: Market was volatile with no clear direction. Index continued with choppy sessions and finally closed marginally up by 11points. Sensex traded in the region of of 13847- 14035 levels. Volumes were good at 4541 cr. However, the breadth had been in the favor of Decliners as they were 1.77 times the Advances. The Support lies at 13847 - 13753 while Resistance is at 14128 -14033 level.
The cement majors have reported buoyant dispatch numbers for the month of November 2006. Cumulatively these majors have reported a strong 8.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in the cement dispatches to 53 lakh tonne. The AV Birla group (which includes Grasim Industries and UltraTech) recorded a y-o-y growth of 12.7% to 24.7 lakh tonne whereas Gujarat Ambuja recorded a smart 9.5% y-o-y growth to 13.11 lakh tonne. ACC's growth remained subdued at 2.7% at 15.2 lakh tonne which could probably be attributed to the heavy monsoons in the south where it has significant exposure. Year-till-date (ytd), all the three majors have approximately reported a growth of 8.8% yoy.
A power-packed performance by ALL
Ashok Leyland's November sales are ahead of our expectations. The company reported an overall growth of 64% year on year (yoy) as its vehicle sales jumped to 6,923 units in the month. Its domestic sales grew by 59% while its exports rose by a whopping 179%