Diwali Picks

Diwali Picks

Offtopic - KSE - FIIs continue to pull out

In four trading days of the current week on the Karachi Stock Exchange, foreign investors withdrew around $185 million from equity and $50 million from government bonds.

A senior fund manager, who provided these figures on condition of anonymity, said that the foreign selling flowed out like an avalanche sweeping away more than 5 per cent off the prices of some of the leading banks and insurance companies.

From Monday to Thursday, market capitalisation of insurance and banking sectors declined by 6.5 per cent and 5.2 per cent, respectively.

Figures of possible outflow during the four trading days of mayhem at the market, prompted by political events, varied from analyst to analyst, but most of them thought that it could hardly have been below $160 million.

Since the aggregate foreign portfolio investment stands at $850 million (excluding those in GDRs), the outflow was a substantial 20 per cent of the overseas equity investment, traders said.

“Both Moody’s and S&P have downgraded Pakistan’s credit rating outlook from stable to negative,” says a trader, which could not have lured fund managers to remain in the Pakistani equity market, in spite of its attractive valuations.

Overall, the KSE-100 index shed 491 points during the week. Volatility on Thursday, like the day earlier, was exceptionally high with the index oscillating 311 points between the low and high for the day.

In the absence of credible real-time news about the market from an independent source due to the blackout of private television channels, most healthy and wealthy investors behaved like blind men in a dark room. They had solely to rely on their stockbroker picking up the phone in order to know what the value of scrip at the time was. Until the prayers of the investors were answered and the broker was free to attend to the call, the share may have dived by several rupees leaving trail of losses in its wake.

The rumourmongers could not have had a better time. On Monday, the news of topple at the top, caused a bloodbath at the market with the index showing the heaviest ever single-day decline of 636 points. With the real-time source of news firmly gagged, the denial from Islamabad on Monday moved at the pace of the post office to reach the bourse only after the end of the trading time.

The same evening, the frontline regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan vowed to ‘investigate’ and bring the rumourmongers to book. Yet, the fact that nothing more had been done until Thursday and given the dismal record of previous investigations, crime and punishment, small investors who lost money could scarcely do more than nurse their wounds.

Trading Calls for the day

Happy Trading .

Markets at a support of 19091 & 19019 levels with resistance at 19669 & 19591 levels .

Buy : RIL

Buy : REL

Buy : JpAsso

Buy : IBullsFinanace bullet

Buy : SKumar

Buy : Primesecurities

Buy : Centextile

Buy : GMRInfra

Dark Horse : ABAN , GeShipping , REL, JpAsso , IBulls , & SBIN

Bullet for the Day : REL & GMRInfra with stop loss

Domestic and International News

Inflation hits 5 1/2 year low

India's inflation, based on the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), fell to nearly five-and-a-half year low in the week ended October 27, the Government said. However, if the impending fuel price hike comes into effect inflation will go up in the coming weeks. Inflation rate slowed to 2.97% in the fourth week of October from 3.02% in the previous week, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said today. Analysts had forecast a reading of 3.06%. Inflation was 5.35% in the corresponding week of last year.

Govt ups MSS limit as rupee nears 10-yr high

With the rupee within striking distance of touching a 10-year peak and foreign inflows continuing unabated, the Government increased the ceiling for issuing government bonds under the Market Stabilisation Scheme (MSS). The move is designed to help the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) help reign in unbridled foreign capital inflows into the flourishing capital markets. This is the fourth time in FY08 that the MSS ceiling has been hiked and the second time in a month, with the last being in October.

Apr-Oct direct tax collection up 40% yoy

Direct tax collections maintained a growth of over 40% in the first seven months of the current fiscal year, indicating that there is no slowdown in the industrial or economic activity as has been feared in recent times. Net tax collections grew by 43.15% at Rs1.29 trillion. Corporate tax rose by 45.71% to Rs787.85bn. Personal income tax (including FBT, STT and BCTT) grew by 39.39% to Rs498.9bn.

DLF, Sterlite, GMR Infra, RNRL added to MSCI indices

MSCI added 8 new stocks in the MSCI India Index while removing seven. The changes were part of the bi-annual review and will be made as of the close of November 30. Cairn India, DLF, GMR Infra, HCL Tech, NTPC, RNRL, Sterlite Industries and United Spirits are the new additions to the MSCI India Index. The deletions include Ashok Leyland, Asian Paints, Bharat Forge, GSK Pharma, HPCL, Nestle India and Videocon Industries. In addition, MSCI added DLF and Sterlite to the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Asia Index.

Mundra Port IPO subscribed nearly 116 times

The IPO of Mundra Port & Special Economic Zone Ltd. was subscribed nearly 116 times as the first ever public issue by a private port closed for subscription. The issue was sold out within just a few minutes of opening the bids on November 1. The company received bids for 4.66bn shares as against the issue size of 40.25mn shares. The QIB portion was subscribed almost 160 times while the HNI category was subscribed 156 times and Retail portion 16 times. The Adani Group company offered shares to local and overseas investors in a range of Rs400 to Rs440 per share.

DoT forms new committee on spectrum allotment

The DoT set up a panel to thrash out new norms for the allocation of radio frequency. The Telecom Engineering Centre (TEC) had recommended tightening the subscriber-linked norms by several times for the existing wireless telecom operators and the DoT had given its 'in-principal' approval to the report. Still, COAI, the body representing GSM companies refused to withdraw its petition from the TDSAT and in fact filed a fresh affidavit in the telecom tribunal against the TEC report.

ONGC eyeing stake in two Sudan blocks

In an attempt to increase the share of overseas business, ONGC is interested in acquiring over 30% stake in two more oil & gas exploration blocks in Sudan, officials from the two countries said. "Besides the three blocks ONGC already has in Sudan, it has shown interest in two more blocks. The doors are open for Indian investment in Sudan," Sudanese Oil Minister Awad Ahmed al-Jaz said in New Delhi.

Bajaj Auto buys 14.5% in KTM

Bajaj Auto acquired a 14.5% stake in Austria's KTM Power Sports AG as part of a wide-ranging co-operation between the two companies. KTM is providing the know-how for the joint development of a water-cooled 4-stroke engines (125-cc and 250-cc). With this, KTM will foray into street motorcycles while Bajaj Auto will also get a new platform for new products.

October car sales up 14.6% yoy

India's auto landscape presented a mixed picture as far as volume for October is concerned. Passenger car sales last month rose by 14.6% to 105,878 units. Total passenger vehicle sales higher by 16.7% to 138,504 units. Total sales of commercial vehicles (CV) grew by 12% to 43,645 units in October. Total two-wheeler sales fell by 3.7% to 793,420 units with bike sales down 6.7% at 657,874 units. But, sales of scooters rose by 16.6% and that of mopeds gained 22.2%.

RIL discovers more gas in KG basin

Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) said it met with yet another success in KG-OSN-2001/1 (KG-III-5) located in the Krishna offshore basin in the east coast of India. The well (KGIII5-P1) is the second gas discovery in the Miocene clastics reservoir in the Krishna basin. This shallow water block, with an area of 1100 sq. kms, was awarded to RIL under biding round of NELP-III. RIL holds 100% participating interest in this block.

Glenmark Pharma unveils business recast

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals announced plans to reorganize its businesses into Specialty and Generics. The new generic entity called Glenmark Generics will be a wholly owned subsidiary of the company and will be listed on the Indian stock exchanges by the first quarter of the fiscal year 2008-09. Terrance Coughlin, currently President API and US Generics, will take over the role of the CEO while Glenn Saldanha will function as the Chairman of Glenmark Generics.

Viacom, Network18 formally announce Indian JV

Viacom and Network18 - through its group company Global Broadcast News (GBN) - completed formalities for their 50:50 joint venture in India - Viacom 18 Media. The two companies had announced their plans in May. Viacom18 will include television, film and digital media content across numerous brands as well as consumer products. The JV will be managed by a six-member Board with equal representation by Viacom and Network18.

Amtek Auto acquires UK based Triplex-Ketlon

Amtek Auto said it has acquired UK-based automotive precision machining company Triplex-Ketlon Group for an undisclosed sum. At revenues of US$152mn per annum, Triplex-Ketlon is one of UK's large but independent precision machining companies. Triplex-Ketlon has a very strong customer base that includes names like Perkins, Land Rover, Honda, Ford, TRW, JCB, Toyota, Dana Spicer, Honeywell among others.

Sterlite eyeing 10,000MW power capacity

Sterlite Industries said it intends to participate in coal-based thermal power projects and other ancillary activities. These projects are expected to include ultra mega power projects or other projects announced by the Government or any state and / or PSU and other projects independently developed by Sterlite Energy aggregating to an installed capacity of up to 10,000 MW in the next five years.

MS announces US$3.7bn subprime hit

Morgan Stanley joined Merrill Lynch and Citigroup in booking losses on subprime mortgage-related assets and said the outlook for credit markets is bleaker than in September. The No.2 US securities firm by market value after Goldman Sachs said it lost US$3.7bn in the two months through Oct. 31. Prices for securities linked to home loans to risky borrowers sank further than traders expected, cutting Q4 earnings by US$2.5bn. The figure may change by the end of the month.

Citi chief Prince steps down

The subprime turbulence in the US led to another big casualty on Wall Street in the form of Citigroup CEO Charles Prince, as the markets wonder how much poison is still left in the system. The exit came after the largest US bank warned of additional writedowns of as much as US$11bn on subprime mortgages and related securities, on top of more than US$6bn of charges reported for the third quarter.

GM unveils US$39bn loss

General Motors (GM) said it had lost US$39bn during the third quarter, largely because of a huge charge to write down deferred tax credits, but also because of a deeper-than-expected loss in its operations. GM shares fell more than 5% on the news of the loss as well as the company’s forecast for continued sluggish auto sales into 2008, the year that GM said its turnaround plan would be fully carried out. The big loss was in contrast to a profit of US$497mn, or 88 cents a share, in the period a year earlier, excluding special items. But, GM officials said the overhaul effort was still on track and would continue to show results.

Time Warner CEO Parsons to resign

Time Warner, under pressure from investors to wring more profit from its AOL division and cable unit, named Jeffrey Bewkes new CEO, succeeding Richard Parsons as the head of the world's largest media company. The company posted a higher quarterly profit, matching expectations, on more subscribers to its package of digital cable services and strong box office results for the latest "Harry Potter" film.

PetroChina m-cap tops US$1 trillion

PetroChina became the first company in the world to have a market value of US$1 trillion after its shares almost tripled in Shanghai debut. The strong listing gave the Beijing-based state-owned oil company a market value that is more than ExxonMobil and GE combined and double that of the US-based rival's US$488bn. But, a large number of PetroChina shares are held by its state-owned parent and classed as non-traded.

Alibaba.com makes dazzling debut

Shares of Alibaba.com, which operates China's largest e-commerce web site, nearly tripled in their Hong Kong debut after raising US$1.5bn in one of the biggest IPOs by a Chinese Internet company. That gave Alibaba.com a market value of US$25.7bn, closing in on Yahoo Japan as Asia's biggest Internet company. The stock was four times more expensive than Google relative to earnings, and also traded at higher multiples than other Chinese Internet companies.

Google unveils mobile strategy

Internet giant Google revealed its plan to enter the mobile phone industry by developing software to make it as easy to access the web on a cell phone as on a computer. The company announced the new strategy that it will work with 33 other companies including mobile phone makers Motorola and Samsung. Google is focusing its efforts on a new platform called Android that relies on openly available computer codes accessible to all programmers.

ArcelorMittal to buy 28% in China Oriental

ArcelorMittal entered into an agreement to acquire a 28% stake in China Oriental Group Co. Ltd. from Smart Triumph Corporation and Chen Ningning for US$647mn. ArcelorMittal became the second largest shareholder of the Chinese company. The company is listed in Hong Kong and manufactures steel products such as billets, strips, H-beams, cold rolled and galvanized strip. For the year 2006, the group reported revenues of US$1.3bn and EBITDA of US$225mn.

Top News for the Week

Crude, gold hit new peak as dollar falls

Crude oil rose above US$98 per barrel and gold touched a new 27-year peak after the dollar declined to a new record low versus the euro amid nagging worries about the health of the US economy. A weak dollar makes commodities denominated in the US currency attractive as a natural hedge. The cost of buying these commodities falls for buyers who pay in non-dollar currencies. The dollar slumped to a new life-time low against the euro after Chinese officials indicated that the country could shift some of it's huge US$1.43 trillion foreign exchange reserves in response to a falling greenback.

Govt defers fuel price hike

With Diwali just a couple of days away and a political consensus nowhere in sight, the Government deferred a plan to effect a marginal hike in retail prices of petrol and diesel. Petroleum Minister Murli Deora said the Government would decide next week on ways to stem the losses of public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) reeling under the burden of record high crude prices. "We are considering various alternatives, including duty restructuring and increase in prices," Deora said. "I cannot say 100%, but we will try to resolve it next week," he said.

Indiainfoline - Diwali Picks

The year 2007 has been another spectacular one for India with its growth story accepted globally. The Sensex touched the 20K mark backed by surging liquidity and we believe that the party is far from over. With India on a strong fundamental footing, there is little risk to growth (most risks external in nature). Equities will continue to mirror India ’s economic prowess and we have handpicked 15 companies that will spice up your portfolio on the eve of Diwali.

Sector	Company	Target (Rs)	Upside (%)
Breweries	Radico Khaitan	223	33
Construction	Patel Engineering	1,017	42
Construction	Punj Lloyd	770	50
Consumer	Voltas	265	28
Engineering	Greaves Cotton	435	32
Logistics	Gati	144	33
Media	Deccan Chronicle	248	31
Metals	Sesa Goa	4,350	25
Oil Allied Services	Alphageo	873	46
Power	Bharat Bijlee	4,455	30
Power	Genus Power Infra	818	30
Power	Indo Tech	854	30
Retail	Pantaloon Retail	874	35
Software	Allied Digital	618	41
Software	3i Infotech	240	82

Consolidation likely to continue

The market is likely to consolidate in the coming week before making the next move in absence of near term triggers. Spells of high volatility are likely as the market tries to breakout in either direction after the phase of consolidation.

However, an important event scheduled on 16 November 2007 is the UPA- Left meet on nuclear deal. Under mounting pressure from the Left parties to clarify its stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal, the government on, 22 October 2007, said the operationalisation of the deal will take place in accordance with the UPA-Left joint committee’s recommendations.

The BSE 30-shares Sensex lost 917.30 points or 4.59% for the week ended Thursday, 8 November 2007 to 19,058.93. The S&P CNX Nifty declined 233.65 points or 3.93% to 5698.75.

At current 19,058.93, Sensex trades at a PE multiple of 18.15 to 19.05 based on projected FY 2009 EPS of Rs 1000-to-Rs 1050 for 30 Sensex companies.

The Q2 September 2007 results of India Inc. were decent to strong which means that strong fundamentals would support Indian equities at declines. At the macro level, the India’s economy is expected to post decent to strong growth for a long period of time, mainly due to favourable demographics.

Global commodity prices have also been surging along with equity markets. Crude oil prices are now eyeing $100 per barrel based on the recent momentum, which is as a matter of concern.

Much will also depend on how global markets pan out. Over the recent past, domestic markets have been taking cues from Asian markets

Market takes a breather after a solid surge

The market ended truncated week on a losing streak as selling pressure continued throughout the week partly due to weak global markets and partly due to profit booking after the recent rally. Slowdown in FII inflow and a bout of FII outflow triggered a correction after a solid surge over the past two months. Volatility was high. Oil prices which soared to record high just under $100 per barrel dampened the sentiment.

The BSE 30-shares Sensex lost 917.30 points or 4.59% to 19,058.93 in the week ended Thursday, 8 November 2007. The S&P CNX Nifty declined 233.65 points or 3.93% to 5698.75 in the week.

Mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed their large-cap peers. The BSE Mid-Cap index lost 76.02 points or 0.95% to 7,945.78 in the week. The BSE Small-Cap index declined 131.52 points or 1.36% to 9,610.91 in the week.

Trading for the week began on a weak note with the Sensex declining 385.45 points or 1.93% to 19,590.78, on Monday 5 November 2007. Weakness in Asian markets caused by worries about the US credit market triggered fall on domestic bourses.

The barometer index slipped 190.11 points or 0.97% at 19,400.67 on Tuesday 6 November 2007, as investors booked profit after the early rise. Volatility was high. Banking and telecom stocks were worst hit. Power stocks ended strong.

The Sensex edged lower by 110.84 points or 0.57% at 19289.83 on Wednesday, 7 November 2007, tracking weak European markets. Software, banking and telecom stocks were key losers on that day.

On Thursday 8 November 2007, the market ended lower for fourth straight session as selling pressure continued throughout the day following weak global cues. The barometer index lost 230.90 points or 1.20% at 19,058.93.

The market will be closed for normal trading on Friday, 9 November 2007, for Diwali but will have a brief one hour auspicious Muhurat trading session from 18:00 IST to 19:00 IST. Investors place token buy orders on Muhurat trading which is held every year on Diwali.

Reliance Industries (RIL) gained 2.66% to Rs 2742.75 in the week. RIL discovered gas in its KG-III-5 block located in the Krishna Godavari offshore basin in the east coast of India. RIL holds 100% participating interest in this block.

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) declined 6.68% to Rs 4130.85. The company entered into a joint venture (JV) agreement with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) for setting up a supercritical steam turbine and generator manufacturing facility in India.

Banking pivotals were mixed. ICICI Bank dropped 10% to Rs 1168.65 and HDFC Bank lost 6.93% to Rs 1559.50 in the week. However State Bank of India advanced 5.50% to Rs 2184.65 in the week.

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) slipped 7.02% to Rs 1236.80 in the week. As per reports, ONGC Videsh (OVL), the overseas investment arm of ONGC, is eyeing more exploration assets in Sudan. The company is in talks to acquire stakes in two oil blocks in the African country.

IT pivotals posted losses as Indian rupee firmed up against the dollar. Infosys Techonogies, (down 8.25% to Rs 1715.75), Wipro (down 5.95% to Rs 469.70), Satyam Computer (down 7.70% to Rs 434.55) and TCS (down 2.75% to Rs 992.35), edged lower in the week. A rise in rupee hits IT companies as they get more than half of their revenue from the United States.

Telecom stocks edged lower. Reliance Communications lost 10.85% to Rs 704.90 and Bharti Airtel shed 6.21% to Rs 884.35, in the week.

The Department of Telecom (DoT), on Tuesday, 6 November 2007 announced setting up of a committee to revise the spectrum allocation criterion for existing operators in a scientific and practicable manner.

Most auto shares ended lower. Mahindra & Mahindra (down 1.76% to Rs 751.45), Tata Motors (down 5.11% to Rs 706.30) and Maruti Suzuki India (down 0.95% to Rs 994.15) edged lower. However Bajaj Auto rose 0.33% to Rs 2430 in the week.

The wholesale price index rose 2.97% in the 12 months 27 October 2007, below the previous week's rise of 3.02% and its lowest in more than five years, government data released today, 8 November 2007 showed.

The market had risen in the previous two weeks. The 30-share BSE Sensex had risen 733.06 points, or 3.81% to 19,976.23 in the week ended Friday, 2 November 200

Markets not a cracker but its still a Happy Diwali !

In a day that was expected to be a complete wash out with the US markets collapsing on the back of worries in the financial sector hit by subprime worries. US continues to see the fallout of the subprime issue. This time there were casualties in large Financial Institutions such as Citibank and Merril Lynch. That is serious. A word going around is that " One could expect the resignation of one top boss of a US Finance company each week now on"

Just extending the argument on the IT sector. if the banking companies are going through a crises, it is not tough to guess what the IT stocks will do. Banking sector exposure we mentioned couple of weeks ago was another headwind for the IT sector. Getting price hikes would be really tough here. The Exposure for the companies to this space is as follows. TCS - 43%, Infosys - 36% Wipro - 24% Satyam 24% HCLT 28%. The pressure will remain on the downside here as now the one bright spot (business visibility) in this sector now comes under a cloud. The tech sector saw weakness this week and we dont expect that to change anytime near term. This sector is expected to see more weakness.

Another big event was PetroChina which listed at Shangai earlier this week. It has become the world's first Trillion dollar market cap company and over double the next biggest which is Exxon.

This week was expected to be a big blast off week on the back of the biggest ever gains logged in October. This is the Diwali week and there were hopes that Sensex would touch the 21000 milestone but the global selloff played spoil sport.

However an interesting part of the move this time was that there was some interest in the mid cap section and stocks did move there. The money power exists with the public but there is still skepticism on the rapid rise in the Market indices in the last month. Investors have started nibbling value in the broader market. The market was lead by a handful of blue chip names.in the recent run up so far. This strength into the broader market is a healthy sign.

Crude hit $97+ and thats certainly not good news. A $10/bbl increase in average crude oil price in a full year will an impact GDP by 1% for high energy intensity countries like India and China as per a report. There were reports of hikes .. but really it will be interesting to see how the Congress manages that in the face of coming elections. This is not good news for the Autos, cement sector etc.

The following are some extracts about what Global Investor Jim Rogers has to say and our comments on that ! Quote
" Sell U.S. investment banks, U.S. housing stocks and the dollar, avoid India and Russia and place large bets on China and commodities. One of the few areas of excess I see in the world is on Wall Stree -". Twenty-nine-year-old kids make $1 million. They think that's normal. You will see those excesses washed out."

"I shorted U.S. housing stocks three years ago the slump has a long way to go. Huge bubbles don't clean themselves out in months, they take years," he said, adding that the dollar was taking the consequences of American excess.

Loose money was not the answer to problems in the United States and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is "making horrible mistakes", Mr. Rogers said. "America has given him the printing press, who knows how fast they will run it when we have serious problems."

India is an extraordinary country. [But] it's horribly bureaucratic and anti-capitalist. They have no infrastructure." To make money in India, investors need to have friends in the government, Mr. Rogers said.

"The wind is at my back in China, in my face in India," he said. "The 21st century is going to be the century of China, China is a communist state, but they are among the best capitalists in the world." Yes, there would be setbacks in China, but those, Mr. Rogers said, would provide opportunities to invest in the country.
End Quote

Our Comments
1. India is certainly not anti capitalistic.. but yes, the political system brings in the socialistic tinge.. rather hue to subjects which can creatte wider political noises.. such as sugar prices, fuel prices, food prices. Thats the constraints one has to live with.

2. "India has no infrastructure..."This is true but taken in the right perspective, this could be taken as a positive as well and thats why we see the infrastructure companies doing as well in the markets as an opportunity.

3. " To make money in India, Investors need to have friends in the government". This is sad and true but lets also hastily add that this is limited to a few areas. The SEZs allocations, Mines allocations of late have been the big stories of late and that is whether you are at the fancy of the Government. Government bashing is a good past time in India and there could be full fledged note on that. However this is still many times better than the license raj years. However to prove a point, lets put in the case of the software sector, the Telecom sector, Cement sector, Autos, Banks which have been doing well on their own. The entertainment sector and real estate rallies have had not much Government help. To add to that, surely the Governments needs to be on the right side to promote Investment in any country and India has been doing particularly a good job in that.

There was research on many stocks put out this week. They included. Kesoram, Titan, Balkrishna Tyres, Hanung Textiles, Transport Corporation and many more.. A lot more notes just ready for you. Do read them next week.

There is lot of hope this Diwali but markets havent given reason for markets to smile as they would have liked to. But really the year has been a good one. Markets are up 70%for the year so far. Of course its led by selected few and largely the Reliance group. But on an absolute basis gains are good even for the others who are not invested into markets. It has been a year of upsides for almost all categories.. Whether it was stocks,. metals, agri commodities real estate art and what have you. Clearly there is more money chasing lesser investment avenues. This liquidity driven markets can be quite risky.

Near term there seems to be a cloud on the global economic scenario.. but there is a new economy in place where companies have become more effiicient and decision making is quickier. Thus chances of a recession in the US ios remote. The US will have to pass through a painfuil period where its excesses will get washed out.. which we think could happen quite rapidly if managed well.

Almost all experts and forecasts agree is that long term the India story is good. We have no argument against that We don?t think that the US economy will fall off a cliff. The Indian Markets have a risk of an external shock such as that and Indian Markets could see some selloff or profit taking on such a probable risk aversion that an external shock could bring in. Near term markets are likely to be ranged. There would be buying on weakness and selling highs on the basis of valuations. We believe markets are headed for a stock pickers game and that's what we think we are pretty good at.

Sensex ends down 231pts, Hindalco zooms 8%

Mirroring weakness in the global markets, the Sensex opened with a negative gap of 180 points at 19,110, and slipped below the 19,000-mark in early deals.

Fresh buying at lower levels saw the index recover some ground and touch a high of 19,210. Persistent weakness in select counters - ONGC, Bharti Airtel and banking stocks - saw the index slip back below the 19,000-mark again to a low of 18,917. The index finally closed with a loss of 231 points at 19,059.

The Sensex thus ended Samvat 2063 with a gain of 50% (6,350 points).

The BSE Bankex dropped 2.5% to 10,353. The Metal and the Realty indices slipped around 2% each to 17,050 and 10,078, respectively.

The market breadth was negative - out 2,789 stocks traded, 1,645 declined, 1,074 advanced and 70 were unchanged.

INDEX SHAKERS...

ONGC slumped 4% to Rs 1,237. SBI and HDFC Bank plunged 3.7% each to Rs 2,185 and Rs 1,559, respectively.

Reliance Communications and ICICI Bank tumbled 3% each to Rs 705 and Rs 1,168, respectively.

Tata Motors dropped over 2% to Rs 706. Grasim, Bharti Airtel and Tata Steel shed 1.8% each at Rs 3,546, Rs 884 and Rs 845, respectively.

Infosys, Wipro and Cipla slipped around 1.5% each to Rs 1,716, Rs 470 and Rs 177, respectively.

Mahindra & Mahindra and BHEL were down 1% each at Rs 751 and Rs 2,794, respectively.

...AND THE MOVERS

Hindalco zoomed 8% to Rs 204. ACC gained nearly 3% to Rs 1,057.

Reliance Energy surged 1.7% to Rs 1,851. Hindustan Unilever and Ranbaxy were up almost 1% each at Rs 194 and Rs 431, respectively.

VALUE & VOLUME TOPPERS

Reliance Natural Resources topped the value chart with a turnover of Rs 539.70 crore followed by Reliance Petroleum (Rs 450 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs 413.80 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs 358.40 crore) and Reliance (Rs 309.30 crore).

Reliance Natural Resources led the volume chart with trades of around 3.59 crore shares followed by Ispat Industries (2.83 crore), Reliance Petroleum (2.07 crore), IFCI (1.12 crore) and Nocil (87.28 lakh).

Market slips for fourth day in a row

Market lost ground as selling pressure persisted throughout the day, following a sharp decline in overseas markets. Banking, metal and telecom stocks were the worst hit in today's fall. Index heavyweights ended in the red. Select metal stocks surged in an otherwise weak market.

Data showing fall in inflation to a lowest level in over 5 years failed to lift bourses. The wholesale price index rose 2.97% in the 12 months 27 October 2007, below the previous week's rise of 3.02% and its lowest in more than five years, government data released today afternoon showed.

The 30-share BSE Sensex provisionally ended down 217.36 points or 1.13% at 19,072.47. It touched a low of 18,917.40 in late trade. At day's low of 18,917.40, Sensex had lost 372.43 points.

The broader S&P CNX Nifty was down 71.85 points or 1.24% at 5710.50, as per provisional data on NSE.

The market declined for a fourth day in a row today.

BSE clocked a turnover of Rs 6734 crore, compared to Wednesday (7 November 2007)'s Rs 6,873.70 crore.

The BSE Mid-Cap index was down 0.86% at 7,917.25, while the BSE Small-Cap index was lower by 0.96% at 9,601.97.

The market breadth was negative. On BSE, 1002 shares advanced, while 1698 declined and 74 shares were unchanged. 21 out of 30 shares fell on Sensex.

Hindalco Industries soared 9.86% to Rs 207.25, ACC gained 2.65% to Rs 1055, Hindustan Unilever 1.85% to Rs 195.10 and Ranbaxy Laboratories moved up 1.01% to 431.70.

Reliance Industries (RIL) fell 0.85% to Rs 2740. RIL has reportedly bagged two oil blocks in Iraq’s troubled Kurdish region. Infosys Technologies lost 1.37% to Rs 1720.

Oil & Natural Gas Corporation slumped 4.20% to Rs 1235.10, HDFC bank slipped 3.70% to Rs 1559.80, State bank of India skid 3.64% to Rs 2185, Reliance Communication gave away 2.72% to Rs 708 and ICICI bank slid 2.81% to Rs 1170.

Reliance Capital moved up 7.87% to Rs 2066.10, Adlab Films jumped 5.29% to Rs 896 and Reliance Energy gained 0.65% to Rs 1831. Reliance Natural Resources was down 0.30% to Rs 150.60 on huge volumes of 3.32 crore shares on BSE.

Colgate Palmolive India gained 1.54% to Rs 388.35. The company has reportedly acquired 75% equity in Advanced Oral Care Products Private, Professional Oral Care Products Private and SS Oral Hygiene Products Private, which have been manufacturing toothpaste and supplying it to Colgate.

Indian Oil Corporation was up 2.10% to Rs 513.50. The company reportedly plans to increase crude oil imports from Nigeria by 50% to 3 million tonnes a year. The state-owned company is also looking to start refining and petrochemical ventures in Nigeria and other African countries, the report said.

Asian and European markets fell today as investors sold financial shares on credit worries after Wall Street tumbled on Wednesday as a probe of the home loan industry by New York's attorney general drew in the country's biggest mortgage finance companies.

In Europe, France’s CAC 40 was down 0.99% at 5,627.11, Germany’s DAX was down 0.22% at 7,782.24 and UK’s FTSE 100 was down 0.49% at 6,354.10.

In Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 3.19% to 28,760.22, Japan’s Nikkei 225 shed 2.02% to 15,771.57, South Korea’s Seoul Composite lost 3.11% to 1,979.56 and Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted fell 3.90% to 8,937.58.

The sell-off in stocks started on Wall Street on Wednesday, 7 November 2007. The Dow Jones industrial average sank 360.92 points, or 2.64% on Wednesday, 7 November 2007, to end at 13,300.02.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 44.65 points, or 2.94%, to 1,475.62 -- the index's worst percentage drop since 9 Aug 2007, when French bank BNP Paribas spooked global markets by freezing three funds due to subprime fears. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 76.42 points to 2,748.76. General Motors added to the gloom by posting its biggest-ever quarterly loss due in part to a deeper-than-expected loss at former finance subsidiary GMAC.

Weak overseas markets led the market slump

Market continued to trade weak on the back of slump in the US markets. Asian markets, too, lost ground with Hang Seng, Kospi and Nikkie slipping into the red by over 2-3% each. Wall street suffered one of its biggest drop this year on worries about credit crisis and weakening dollar. The Sensex continued the weak trend as the market witnessed another round of selling with index heavyweights, metal, banking, and PSU stocks shaving off over 293 points during intra-day trades. As selling gained momentum the index shed over 373 points and slipped below 19,000 mark to touch the day's low of 18,917. The Sensex managed to trim losses towards the close, however the index finally ended the session by slipping over 231 points at 19,059. The Nifty shed 84 points to close at 5,699.

The market breadth was negative, with the losers outnumbering the gainers in a ratio of 1.51:1. Of the 2,789 stocks traded on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), 1,633 stocks declined, 1,081 stocks advanced and 75 stocks ended unchanged. All the sectoral indices had a weak outing. The BSE Bankex index slipped sharply and dropped 2.51% followed by the BSE Realty index (down 2.07%), the BSE Metal index (down 1.83%), the BSE Teck index (down 1.51%), the BSE PSU index (down 1.48%) and the BSE Auto index (down 1.25%).

Out of the 30 Sensex stocks, 22 stocks closed in negative territory. Among the major losers ONGC slumped by 4.07% at Rs1,237, SBI plummeted by 3.65% at Rs2,185, HDFC Bank tumbled by 3.62% at Rs1,559, Reliance Communication shed 3.01% at Rs705, ICICI Bank crashed by 2.92% at Rs1,169, Tata Motors dropped 2.18% at Rs706 and Grasim declined by around 1.80% at Rs3,546. However, Hindalco jumped 7.95% at Rs204, ACC gained 2.83% at Rs1,057, Reliance energy added 1.75% at Rs1,851, HLL moved up 1.35% at Rs195 while, Ranbaxy, Ambuja Cement, L&T and Dr Reddy's Lab ended marginally higher.

Banking stocks came under the grip of sharp hammering. Allahabad Bank slipped by 2.48% at Rs225, Punjab National Bank slumped by 2.45% at Rs534, Bank of India dropped 2.43% at Rs363 and Axis Bank declined by 1.82% at Rs920.

Over 3.58 crore shares of Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL) changed hands on the BSE followed by Ispat Industries (2.82 crore shares), Reliance Petroleum (2.82 crore shares), IFCI (1.12 crore shares) and Nocil (82.27 lakh shares).

Valuewise, RNRL registered a turnover of Rs539 crore on the BSE followed by Reliance Petroleum (Rs449 crore), Reliance Energy (Rs413 crore), Reliance Capital (Rs358 crore) and Reliance Industries (Rs309 crore).

Post Market Commentary

The market closed on a negative territory following weak global cues. The BSE Sensex closed at 19,058.93 lost 230.90 points while Nifty dropped by 83.6 points to close at 5,698.75. The wholesale price index i.e. inflation which stood at 2.97% for the week ended October 27, 2007 as against 3.02% last week failed to give a direction to the market. Almost all the sectoral indices closed in red. Overall, the market breadth was weak as 1646 stocks are closed in red while 1074 stocks are closed in green. The BSE Mid Cap and Small Cap closed lower by 40.18 points and 84.22 points at 7,945.78 and 9,610.91 respectively.

BSE Metal index declined by 318.20 points to close at 17,049.52 Pulling it down are Jindal steel (7.64%), Sterlite (5.12%), SAIL (3.05%), JSW Steel (2.69%) and Tata steel (1.74%).

BSE bankex index fell by 267.03 points to close at 10,353.19 as SBI (3.65%), HDFC bank (3.62%), ICICI bank (2.92%), Allahabad bank (2.48%) and PNB (2.45%) closed lower.

The reality index slipped by 213.17 points at 10,077.92 as Unitech (4.97%), Penland (2.59%), Omaxe (2.34%), Purvankara (1.71%) and DLF (1.43%) closed in red.

The oil and gas index slipped by 94.43 points to close at 11,593.75. Scrips that fell are ONGC (4.07%), reliance industries (0.72%), BPCL (0.53%) and HPCL (0.41%).

The capital goods index dropped by 91.79 points to close at 19,646.57 as ABB (2.27%), Punj Lloyd (1.69%), BHEL (0.97%), Suzlon energy (0.35%) and Siemens (0.18%) closed in red.

The IT index closed lower by 44.56 points at 4,298.86 as Iflex (4.41%), Mphasis (3.32%), Infosys (1.61%), Wipro (1.60%) and TCS (0.59%) closed in negative.

PVR Cinemas

PVR Cinemas

Grey Market - Mundra, Edeweiss, Religare, Varun Industries, Empee Distilleries

Reliance Power -- 53 to 55


Mundra Port & Sez 400 to 440 475 to 480


Empee Distilleries 350 to 400 60 to 65


Edelweiss 725 to 825 650 to 700


Varun Ind. 60 36 to 38


Religare Enterprises 185 295 to 300


Barak Valley Cement 37 to 42 15 to 16


Rathi Bars 35 1.25 to 1.50


Allied Computers 12 12 to 14


SVPCL 40 to 45 2 to 3