Consolidation likely to continue

The market is likely to consolidate in the coming week before making the next move in absence of near term triggers. Spells of high volatility are likely as the market tries to breakout in either direction after the phase of consolidation.

However, an important event scheduled on 16 November 2007 is the UPA- Left meet on nuclear deal. Under mounting pressure from the Left parties to clarify its stand on the Indo-US nuclear deal, the government on, 22 October 2007, said the operationalisation of the deal will take place in accordance with the UPA-Left joint committee’s recommendations.

The BSE 30-shares Sensex lost 917.30 points or 4.59% for the week ended Thursday, 8 November 2007 to 19,058.93. The S&P CNX Nifty declined 233.65 points or 3.93% to 5698.75.

At current 19,058.93, Sensex trades at a PE multiple of 18.15 to 19.05 based on projected FY 2009 EPS of Rs 1000-to-Rs 1050 for 30 Sensex companies.

The Q2 September 2007 results of India Inc. were decent to strong which means that strong fundamentals would support Indian equities at declines. At the macro level, the India’s economy is expected to post decent to strong growth for a long period of time, mainly due to favourable demographics.

Global commodity prices have also been surging along with equity markets. Crude oil prices are now eyeing $100 per barrel based on the recent momentum, which is as a matter of concern.

Much will also depend on how global markets pan out. Over the recent past, domestic markets have been taking cues from Asian markets