Auto, cement stocks will be in focus on monthly sales data

Results of monthly surveys on manufacturing and services sectors and automobile and cement sales data for December 2012 will be in focus next week. Auto and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sectors will start unveiling monthly sales data for November 2012 from Tuesday, 1 January 2013. Markit Economics will unveil HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, which gauges the business activity of India's factories, for December 2012 on Wednesday, 2 January 2013. The HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which gauges the business activity of India's factories but not its utilities, rose to 53.7 in November 2012 from 52.9 in October 2012. Readings above 50 denote growth.

Auto, cement stocks in focus on monthly sales data

Results of monthly surveys on manufacturing and services sectors and automobile and cement sales data for November 2012 will be focus next week. Auto and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sectors will start unveiling monthly sales data for November 2012 from Saturday, 1 December 2012. Markit Economics will unveil HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, which gauges the business activity of India's factories, for November 2012 on Monday, 3 December 2012. The HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) had nudged up to 52.9 in October 2012 from 52.8 in September 2012. The index has remained above 50, which divides growth and contraction, for over three and a half years.

US fiscal-cliff negotiations in focus

The upcoming winter session of the parliament in India and fiscal-cliff negotiations in the US will dictate trend on bourses in the near term. The winter session of the parliament begins on Thursday, 22 November 2012. Finance Minister P. Chidambaram on Friday, 16 November 2012, said that the winter session will have a heavy legislative agenda. Siemens announces its results of the year ended 30 September 2012 on Friday, 23 November 2012 US President Barack Obama and Congressional leaders begin fiscal-cliff negotiations on Friday, 16 November 2012. Investors are worried about the possibility of the so-called "fiscal cliff" in US, if the Congress fails to act. The fiscal cliff refers to the year-end deadline for the expiration of hundreds of billions of dollars worth of tax cuts and the triggering of $109 billion in across-the-board spending cuts. The US Congress created the hazardous deadline of 31 December 2012 in August 2011 when it agreed to a deficit deal as a way out of a deadlock over raising the US debt ceiling. In Europe, an extraordinary meeting of euro-zone finance ministers is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, 20 November 2012, after euro-zone finance ministers after holding a meeting on 12 November 2012 delayed releasing the next tranche of bailout money to Greece.

BSE Small-Cap, Mid-Cap indices outshine Sensex

The market logged gains for third straight week on a slew of economic reforms announced by the government recently. The barometer index, BSE Sensex, reached its highest closing level in nearly 14 months. The S&P CNX Nifty attained its highest closing level in almost 14-1/2 months. The BSE Mid-Cap and the BSE Small-Cap indices outperformed the BSE Sensex. The market logged gains in two of four trading days during the week ended Friday, 21 September 2012. The stock market was closed on Wednesday, 19 September 2012, on account of Ganesh Chaturthi. The BSE Sensex gained 288.56 points or 1.56% to 18,752.83 in the week ended 21 September 2012, its highest closing level since 25 July 2011. The 50-unit S&P CNX Nifty surged 113.50 points or 2.03% to settle at 5,691.15, its highest closing level since 7 July 2011. The BSE Mid-Cap index advanced 3% and the BSE Small-Cap index gained 2.81% in the week. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Expiry of September F&O contracts to trigger volatility

The government's next policy moves after easier foreign investment rules announced this week will dictate near term trend on the bourses. Volatility may remain high as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near month September 2012 series to October 2012 series. The September 2012 F&O contracts expire on Thursday, 27 September 2012. Shares of sugar firms will be focus on buzz the government will announce reduction in subsidy on sugar made available to below-poverty-line (BPL) consumers under the public distribution system. The measure expected to be announced after a Cabinet Meeting on Tuesday, 25 September 2012, is aimed at reducing the government's good subsidy burden, reports suggest.

Advance tax data, FOMC meeting to dictate near term trend

Advance tax data for Q2 September 2012, policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on US interest rates and mid-quarter policy review by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will dictate near term trend on the bourses. Advance tax data for the 2nd installment due on 15 September 2012 could provide cues on the likely corporate earnings for Q2 September 2012. The RBI is scheduled to undertake a mid-quarter review of the monetary policy on 17 September 2012. RBI last cut rates by 0.5 percentage point to 8% from 8.5% in April, its first move to reverse a 20-month rate-tightening cycle. It then held rates steady in June and at its last rate-setting meeting on July 31, saying that a cut would exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Global cues may dictate trend

The market is likely to be volatile next week. Automobile and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sector start unveil monthly sales volume data for August 2012 from Saturday, 1 September 2012. Markit Economics will unveil HSBC India Manufacturing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2012 on Monday, 3 September 2012. On Wednesday, 5 September 2012, Markit Economics will unveil HSBC India Services PMI for August 2012.

Market may remain volatile as August F&O contracts expire

The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from the near-month August 2012 series to September 2012 series. The August 2012 derivatives contracts expire on Thursday, 30 August 2012. The quantum and distribution of rains towards the close of the crucial month of August, Q1 June 2012 GDP data, news out of Greece, a speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and outcome of the monthly policy meetings of European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England in early September 2012 will determine the near term trend on the bourses.

Market gallops on bargain hunting

The market rose on bargain hunting last week after declining in past three consecutive weeks. Data showing resumption of buying of Indian stocks by foreign funds underpinned sentiment. Key benchmark indices rose in three out of five trading sessions. The BSE Sensex rose 358.74 points or 2.13% to 17,197.93. The 50-unit S&P CNX Nifty rose 115.85 points or 2.27% to settle at 5,215.70. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 3.14% and the BSE Small Cap index rose 2.96%. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

All eyes on RBI's monetary policy review

Next batch of first quarter corporate earnings, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review, progress of the monsoon rains and monetary policy review by US Federal Reserve will dictate near term trend on the bourses. Automobile and cement stocks will be focus as companies from these two sector start unveil monthly sales volume data for July 2012 from Wednesday, 1 August 2012. Investors' focus is currently on Q1 June 2012 earnings. Bank of Baroda and GAIL (India) unveil Q1 results on Monday, 30 July 2012. Jaiprakash Associates and Cipla unveil Q1 results on Tuesday, 31 July 2012.

Next batch of Q1 results, inflation data to dictate near-term trend

The next batch of Q1 June 2012 corporate earnings, monthly inflation data and progress of the monsoon rains will dictate near term trend on the bourses. The first quarter June 2012 earnings season has just begun. In the next one month, investors and analysts will closely watch the management commentary that would accompany the result to see if there is any revision in their future earnings forecast of the company for the current year or the next year. A deceleration in top line growth of India Inc amid economic slowdown and slowdown in investment cycle will weigh on bottom line growth in Q1 June 2012 as the core operating profit margin could be negatively impacted by deceleration in top line growth.

RBI policy review, Greece elections in focus

Outcome of a parliamentary election in Greece, Reserve Bank of India's mid-quarter monetary policy review, progress of the monsoon rains, a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on US interest rates and G20 summit will decide the near-term trend on the bourses. The Reserve Bank of India is seen cutting its key policy rate viz. the repo rate by 25 basis points at mid-quarter monetary policy review on Monday, 18 June 2012. Easing of core inflation, falling crude oil prices, weak industrial production data for April 2012, sharp deceleration in GDP growth in Q4 March 2012 and latest data showing decline in exports in May 2012 have raised expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates to revive economic growth. On the flip side, the hike in minimum support prices of various kharif (June-October) crops 2012 is expected to further fuel persistently high food inflation in the coming months. Food inflation has been in double digits for around a year and has been contributing significantly to overall inflation. The government on Thursday, 14 June 2012, raised the minimum support prices of various kharif (June-October) crops 2012 in the range of 15.3% to 53.1%

Market likely to be volatile

The market is likely to be volatile next week as investors brace for major global events over the next few days. On the macro front, the government will announce data on industrial production (IIP) for the month of April 2012 on Tuesday, 12 June 2012. The government will announce inflation data for the month of May 2012 on Thursday, 14 June 2012. Data on first installment of the advance tax payment due on Friday, 15 June 2012, could provide cues on Q1 June 2012 corporate earnings. Investors will closely watch how monsoon progresses in the country. A good monsoon can help increase farm output, which can ease food inflation and boost agricultural income. On 5 June 2012, the monsoon arrived in Kerala four days after the usual arrival date as a cyclone on the west coast stalled the onset. Investors will also watch movement in crude oil prices. India imports two-thirds of its oil consumption, so a rebound in oil prices will hurt its fiscal and trade balance negatively. Crude for July delivery was down 2.97% to $82.30 a barrel in Asian trading on Friday, 8 June 2012. Over the next few days, the focus will be on the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) mid-quarter monetary policy review scheduled on 18 June 2012. Investors are hoping that the RBI will cut interest rates to prop up slowing economy after data released by the government last week showed India's economy grew 5.3% in Q4 March 2012, its slowest pace of expansion in nearly a decade. On the global front, Greek voters return to the polls on 17 June 2012 after the splintered results of a May 6 parliamentary election left no party able to put together a government.

News flow from euro-zone to dictate near term trend

News flow from euro-zone will continue to dictate near term trend on the domestic bourses as risk aversion arising from euro-zone debt worries rattled global markets in the month just gone by. The barometer index, BSE Sensex, lost 6.35% in May 2012 on euro-zone debt worries. Concerns about Greece's possible exit from the European Union rattled global equity markets after the splintered results of a parliamentary election on 6 May 2012 left no party able to put together a government. That led the country to call another election on 17 June 2012. Automobile and hotel stocks may slide after the government on Thursday, 31 May 2012, announced a series of austerity measures in the context of the current fiscal situation where there is a tremendous pressure on government's resources. The finance ministry has banned purchase of new vehicles until further orders, including against condemned vehicles. The finance ministry also announced a ban on holding meeting and conferences at five-star hotels.

Market may remain volatile ahead of F&O expiry and Q4 GDP data

The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions from the near-month May 2012 series to June 2012 series. The May 2012 derivatives contracts expire on Thursday, 31 May 2012 The government will announce Q4 March 2012 gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday, 31 May 2012. The Indian economy expanded 6.1% in the October-December quarter from a year earlier, the weakest pace of expansion in more than two years, hurt by slower growth in manufacturing output and a contraction in mining production. Automobile and cement shares will be in focus as companies from these two sectors will start unveiling monthly sales volume data for May 2012 from Friday, 1 June 2012. HSBC's monthly purchasing managers' index (PMI), which indicates the health of the manufacturing sector, is likely to be released next week. The HSBC India PMI, compiled by Markit, rose to 54.9 in April from 54.7 in March. The Q4 March 2012 earnings season is drawing towards a close. Investor focus is on the guidance provided by the management for the year ending March 2013 (FY 2013) to gauge the earnings outlook. Coal India announces FY 2012 consolidated results on Monday, 28 May 2012. Tata Motors, ONGC, Steel Authority of India and Power Grid Corporation of India announce FY 2012 results on Tuesday, 29 May 2012. Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries announces Q4 results on the same day. GAIL (India) and DLF unveil Q4 results on Wednesday, 30 May 2012. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Jaiprakash Associates unveil FY 2012 results on the same day.

Quarterly earnings, RBI policy review to dictate trend

The focus of investors next week will be on January-March 2012 quarterly earnings and the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy. The major near-term trigger for the market is Q4 March 2012 and year ending March 2012 (FY 2012) earnings. Investors will focus on the guidance provided by the management for the year ending March 2013 (FY 2013) to gauge the earnings outlook.

CRISIL, Castrol India and MindTree unveil their quarterly results on Monday, 16 April 2012. VST Industries, SKF India and IFCI unveil their quarterly results on Tuesday, 17 April 2012. HDFC Bank, HCL Technologies and CMC unveil their quarterly results on Wednesday, 18 April 2012. Ambuja Cements, ACC, IndusInd Bank, Tourism Finance Corporation of India and Hindustan Zinc unveil their quarterly results on Thursday, 19 April 2012. Cairn India, Honeywell Automation India, Mastek, Fag Bearings India, Merck and State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur unveil their quarterly results on Friday, 20 April 2012.

Market may remain volatile ahead of F&O expiry

The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions from the near-month March 2012 series to April 2012 series. The March 2012 derivatives contracts expire on Thursday, 29 March 2012.

The next major trigger for the market is Q4 March 2012 earnings. The earnings season will begin in mid April 2012. Advance tax payout of top Indian firms for the last installment of 15 March 2012 was largely flat. A muted advance tax payment indicates that the revenues and profits of companies are under stress. Companies have to pay advance tax on their projected earnings a fortnight before the end of every quarter.

Nifty March 2012 futures at premium

Turnover surges

Nifty March 2012 futures were at 5334.55, at a premium of 16.65 points over spot closing of 5317.90. Turnover on NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment surged to Rs 216356.42 crore from Rs 124153.85 crore on Thursday, 15 March 2012.

State Bank of India (SBI) March 2012 futures were at 2225, at a premium compared to spot closing of 2218.10.

Tata Motors March 2012 futures were at 288, near spot closing of 286.55.

Volatility may prevail on bourses

The market is expected to remain volatile next week due to uncertainties over elections results in five states due on Tuesday, 6 March 2012. The stock market remains closed on Thursday, 8 March 2012, on account of Holi.

The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange are holding a special 1-1/2 hour trading session on Saturday, 3 March 2012, as BSE is testing its Disaster Recover Site (DR). Trading will begin at 11:15 IST and conclude at 12:45 IST on that day.

Polling for assembly elections in five states concludes on Saturday, 3 March 2012. The counting of the votes takes place on 6 March 2012, with the results due on the same day.

Market may turn volatile ahead of F&O expiry

High volatility is expected in a truncated trading week as traders roll over positions in futures & options (F&O) segment from the near-month February 2012 series to March 2012 series. The near-month February 2012 F&O contracts expire on Thursday, 23 February 2012. The stock market remains closed on Monday, 20 February 2012, on account of Mahashivratri.

Ranbaxy Laboratories and ABB unveil Q4 December 2011 results on Thursday, 23 February 2012.

The Empowered Group of Ministers headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is reportedly likely to meet on Friday, 24 February 2012, to consider changes in the natural gas allocation policy. The EGoM meeting, the first in more than 18 months, would consider changes in gas allocation in view of a sharp drop in output from Reliance Industries' eastern offshore KG-D6 block.