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Monday, July 16, 2007

ENAM, ADAG Portfolio


ENAM Portfolio

Company Name % stake
Bannari Amman 3.4
Champagne Indage 1.4
Educomp Solution 5.9
Elder Health 2.8
Elgi Equipment 1.7
Ess Dee Aluminiu 7.2
FDC 1.5
Greenply Inds. 3.8
Guj. Flourochem. 1.3
Helios Matheson 1.0
Hi-Tech Gears 3.1
IP Rings 7.1
Kar Mobiles 4.3
Kernex Microsyst 1.1
Khaitan Elect. 4.4
Lak. Mach. Works 2.4
Motherson Sumi 1.4
MRF 5.1
Munjal Showa 7.1
Pantaloon Retail 1.0
Plethico Pharmac 1.3
Polyplex Corpn 3.6
Prima Agro 2.0
Prithvi Info 1.2
Rane Engine Val. 3.9
Rane Holdings 1.1
Rico Auto Inds 2.3
Shree Ram Mills 3.7
SPL Polymers 1.2
Sterling Tools 1.8
Super Spinning 1.4
Taneja Aerospace 2.6
XL Telecom 3.5

ADAG

Company Name % stake
Bhartiya Intl. 2.8
HBL Power System 3.0
Zodiac Cloth. Co 6.4
Anant Raj Inds. 4.8
Champagne Indage 6.8
Hitachi Home 2.2
ICSA (India) 6.8
KLG Systel 3.7
Magma Shrachi 12.7
Mercator Lines 1.8
NDTV 1.6
Network 18 2.5
OCL India 1.4
Oswal Chem & Fer 5.0
PVR 1.3
Ramco Systems 2.2
Reliance Communi 0.7
Reliance Natural 0.0
Saregama India 6.0
Shri Lakshmi 2.0
TV 18 India 2.6
Venus Remedies 2.5
Viceroy Hotels 3.1
Hind.Dorr-Oliver 1.1

SSKI Recommendations


SSKI has come out with its earning estimates on the construction sector for the quarter ended June' 07-08. According to the report Gammon India PAT is seen up 34.4% at Rs 21.4 crore (Rs 214 million) versus Rs 15.9 crore (Rs 159 million), YoY.

During the same quarters its net sales are seen up 25% at Rs 523.2crore (Rs 5232 million) as against Rs 418.5 crore (Rs 4185 million) in the corresponding quarter previous year. It's EBDITA stood at Rs 445 million as against Rs 317 million in the corresponding quarter previous year.

SSKI has come out with its earning estimates on the construction sector for the quarter ended June' 07. According to the report HCC PAT is seen up 9.3% at Rs 27.5 crore (Rs 275 million) versus Rs 25.1 crore (Rs251millionYoY

During the same quarters its net sales are seen up 18 % at Rs 677.6 crore (Rs 6776 million) as against Rs 574.3 crore (Rs 5743 million) in the corresponding quarter previous year.

It's EBDITA stood at Rs 610 million as against Rs 461 million in the corresponding quarter previous year.


SSKI has come out with its earning estimates on the auto sector for the quarter ended June' 07. According to the report Maruti Udyog's PAT is seen down 5.1% at Rs 350.8 crore (Rs 3508 million) versus Rs 369.6 crore (Rs 3696 million), YoY.

During the same quarters its net sales are seen up 23.4% at Rs 3855.4 crore (Rs 38554 million) as against Rs 3125.5 crore (Rs 31255 million) in the corresponding quarter previous year.

SSKI has come out with its earning estimates on the construction sector for the quarter ended June' 07-08. According to the report L&T PAT is seen up 20.7% at Rs 244 crore (Rs 2440 million) versus Rs 202.1 crore (Rs 2021 million), YoY.

During the same quarters its net sales are seen up 22% at Rs 4241.8crore (Rs 42418 million) as against Rs 3476.9 crore (Rs 34769 million) in the corresponding quarter previous year.

It's EBDITA stood at Rs 3606 million as against Rs 2890 million in the corresponding quarter previous year.

SSKI has come out with its earning estimates on the auto sector for the quarter ended June' 07. According to the report Mahindra and Mahindra's PAT is seen up 0.1% at Rs 205.9 crore (Rs 2059 million) versus Rs 205.7 crore (Rs 2057 million), YoY.

During the same quarters its net sales are seen up 11.7% at Rs 2498.3 crore (Rs 24983 million) as against Rs 2236.3 crore (Rs 22363 million) in the corresponding quarter previous year.

SSKI Securities has come out with its earning estimates on the Textiles sector for the quarter ended June' 07. According to the report Vardhman Textiles PAT is seen down 9.6% at Rs 33.8 crore (Rs 338 million) versus Rs 37.4 crore (Rs 374 million), YoY.

During the same quarters its net sales are seen up 14.3% at Rs 543.5 crore (Rs 5435 million) as against Rs 475.5 crore (Rs 4755 million) in the corresponding quarter previous year.

SSKI Securities has come out with its earning estimates on the Textiles sector for the quarter ended June' 07. According to the report Gokaldas Exports PAT is seen up 14.1% at Rs 15.4 crore (Rs 154 million) versus Rs 13.5 crore (Rs 135 million), YoY.

During the same quarters its net sales are seen up 21% at Rs 268.2 crore (Rs 2682 million) as against Rs 221.6 crore (Rs 2216 million) in the corresponding quarter previous year.


SSKI has come out with its earning estimates on the auto sector for the quarter ended June' 07. According to the report Hero Honda Motors PAT is seen down 25.1% at Rs 178.1 crore (Rs 1781 million) versus Rs 237.7 crore (Rs 2377 million), YoY.

During the same quarters its net sales are seen up 4% at Rs 2458.6 crore (Rs million) as against Rs 2364.4 crore (Rs 23644 million) in the corresponding quarter previous year.

Weekly Update


Weekly Update

Wild Picks - Thirumalai Chemicals


One of the operators is very very bullish on Thirumalai Chemicals, targets of 300

Disclaimer: Operator might get caught by SEBI and you could go kaput!

Rediff, Sify madly priced!


Amid speculations the US-listed Indian portal Rediff.com was on takeover radar of giants like Yahoo and Google, a leading business publication said shares of India's internet firms were too expensive.

"In a world mad for internet stocks, some of the maddest valuations have gone to two Internet companies in India that trade on Nasdaq -- India's third largest portal Rediff.com and Sify, the country's largest non-government owned provider of broadband access," Barron's reported in its latest edition.

Shares of Rediff.com India dropped four per cent or by $1.05 to $25.41 at the Nasdaq on Friday, while that of Sify rose by 2.15 per cent to $10.47.

Yahoo shares were down 1.4 per cent to $26.58, while Google rose by 1.25 per cent to $552.16. With a market-cap of $740 million, Rediff trades at 115 times trailing earnings and 88 times of the forward earnings, while Sify, with a market value of $440 million, sells at a trailing price-to-earnings of 205 and a forward multiple of 60, the publication noted.

This compares with a modest price-to-earnings ratio of 29 times for Google. Besides, Rediff seems to be losing its grip in Indian market as global giants like Google and Yahoo are expanding their presence, the report said.

Noting the speculations about Rediff being a takeover target for Google and Yahoo might be true, the magazine said the Indian portal's management has recently hinted towards an IPO rather than any plans to sell out.

"Bulls contend Rediff is a takeover target of both Google and Yahoo, which may be true, but CEO Ajit Balakrishnan recently said he was considering an India IPO at some stage -- apparently hinting he had no plans of selling out," the report said.

The shares of Rediff as well as Sify have gone to sky high levels riding high on the the growth potential in the country as just 18 of 1,000 Indians have internet access, Barron's said.

Shares of both the Nasdaq-listed companies were up last week on news that Rediff may list its shares in India and that Sify would train members of its cybercafes in Microsoft Office.

"But in contrast to steadily growing Chinese portal Baidu.com, Rediff (9.7 million unique users in April) is losing its grip in India to Google (13.6 million) and Yahoo (14.6 million), and has seen its market share drop from 34.1 per cent to 25.5 per cent over the past one and half years," Barron's report said.

Besides, more than half of Rediff's 2007 pre-tax profit of $7 million was from interest on cash from its IPO proceeds, and another one-fifth came from a separate newspaper operation, it added.

Indian businessmen most optimistic in world


Indian entrepreneurs have retained their place as the world's most optimistic business owners for the fourth year in a row on the back of continuing economic reforms, global business advisory firm Grant Thornton said in a new report.

Business owners have taken full advantage of economic reforms and liberalisation of international trade and remain confident this would continue to drive the economy, Grant Thorton's International Business Report (IBR) said.

"Reforms since the early 1990s have helped unlock India's economic potential and positioned India as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. Growth is accelerating, boosted by a dynamic, knowledge-based service sector and expanding manufacturing sector.

"No wonder, for the fourth successive year, Indian businesses continue to be the most optimistic in IBR about economic prospects," Grant Thornton India's Vishesh Chandiok said.

The outlook for the Indian economy over the next one year remains extremely optimistic. India was followed by the Philippines and mainland China. Business owners in Japan and Taiwan remained generally downbeat about economic prospects over the next 12 months.

The optimism/pessimism balance in India has reached over 97 per cent as compared to 93 per cent last year, an exceptionally high balance reflecting the rapid progress achieved by Indian economy in recent years, the report said.

Three other Asian economies - Philippines, China and Singapore - also display strong optimism, with balances over 80 per cent as they made rapid progress.

Technicals & Technical Futures - July 17 2007


Technicals & Technical Futures - July 17 2007

UTI Bank, Bajaj Auto


UTI Bank, Bajaj Auto

Reliance Comm buys U.S. ethernet firm Yipes


Reliance Communications Ltd., India's second-biggest mobile services provider, said on Monday it was buying U.S.-based Yipes Holdings Inc. for $300 million cash, the latest in a wave of foreign buys by Indian firms.

San Francisco-based Yipes, a provider of managed ethernet and application delivery services, offered Reliance an opportunity to tap a fast-growing market, Chairman Anil Ambani told a news conference.

"Yipes will accelerate Reliance's entry into the $90 billion global market for enterprise and institutional data services," he said.

The ethernet market alone was valued at $10 billion, Ambani said, adding it was forecast to grow at a compounded annual rate of about 30 percent to more than $25 billion by 2010.

Reliance Communications bought Yipes from a group of investors including JP Morgan and venture capital firms Norwest Venture Partners, Sprout Group and Crosslink Capital.

The acquisition is the latest in a wave of non-domestic M&A deals by Indian companies, aiming to penetrate new markets and access the latest technology by acquiring foreign firms.

Outbound Indian M&A deals this year total $15.1 billion from 99 deals, not including Monday's deal, according to data from Dealogic. That compares with $5.8 billion from 85 deals in the same period last year, and $21.7 billion from 167 deals in the whole of 2006.

Deals this year include Hindalco Industries purchase of Canada's Novelis Inc in February, and several purchases by drug makers such as Ranbaxy Laboratories and Dr. Reddy's Laboratories.

India's biggest foreign takeover, Tata Steel's $12 billion acquisition of the Corus Group, is counted in the 2006 figures because it was announced in October 2006, although the deal was not completed until 2007.

Shares in Reliance Communications hit a record high of 577.40 rupees on Monday, and closed up 3.5 percent at 574.05 in a Mumbai market that rose 0.25 percent.

Yipes will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Reliance Communication's undersea cable unit, Flag Telecom, which it bought in 2003 for about $209 million.

Reliance said it would expand Yipes' coverage to 30 metro cities in the United States, from 14 at present, and would also take it to Asia, Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

"Even if we take a conservative 5 percent of the overall global market, it will be a high margin business over the next few years," Ambani said.

Reliance Communications competes with top mobile firm Bharti Airtel and Vodafone-controlled Hutchison Essar in India, the world's fastest growing mobile market. It has more than 35 million subscribers, including fixed-line and Internet.

The company said in April it would take a decision in the next six months on "unlocking value" in its Reliance Telecom Infrastructure unit, and a potential listing of Flag Telecom.

"As far as unlocking of value (in Flag) is concerned ... it will happen during the course of this year," Ambani said on Monday. On Reliance Telecom Infrastructure, he said: "Sooner than later."

In April, Ambani said strategic partnerships or private equity investment in the two units were also being considered.

Eveninger - July 16 2007


Eveninger - July 16 2007

Bajaj Allianz - a success story


The secret behind early profits of Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance is out. The company has managed to avoid losses on new unit-linked policies through a product that allows it to front-end charges and show higher first-year allocations at the same time.

While nearly all new insurance companies continue to be in the red, Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance has reported a net profit of Rs 63 crore last year, which was followed by a Rs 30-crore profit in Q1 of 2007-08. The company has managed the profit despite a growth in annualised premium of 86%. The profit has surprised the industry since companies typically lose money in the first year of a new policy. As long as premium from new policies outstrip renewal premium, it is difficult for a life insurance company to break even.

Bajaj Allianz’s Capital Unit Gain has placed IRDA in a dilemma as insurers feel that it violates the spirit of regulations, which require insurers to provide for the first year expenses upfront

A similar product is also being sold by Aviva India. IRDA has received proposals to launch similar products. Sources said IRDA may set up a team of actuaries from the life insurance industry to look at the product.

Capital Unit Gain was introduced by Bajaj Allianz last year. The difference between this and other unit-linked products is that in Capital Unit Gain, the first year premium is used to allocate capital units and the regular premium payable thereafter will be used to allocate accumulation units. In other words, while units are allocated to policyholders in the first year, only a part of the investment happens in the first year, the
rest of the units are credited to the policyholders account, but are not available to them. In the long run (after six-seven years), this may
not make any difference to them, but this feature reduces the surrender value. Speaking to ET, Sam Ghosh, MD, Bajaj Allianz Life, said: “IRDA does not allow any unit-linked policy with less than a three-year tenure, so the surrender value in the first three years are not of relevance to the policyholder.” He added that for those who hold the policy until maturity, the returns are in line with other unit-linked policies. While unit-linked insurance plans by themselves are complex products, the capital unit gain takes the complexity even higher. It requires different software to calculate separately the net asset value of capital and accumulation units. The product details disclose this feature.

According to the product brochure, if the regular premium is not paid in three years and the policy has lapsed, the surrender value would be 100% of the capital units. Immediately upon completing the third year, the insured would lose a big chunk of the premium because of the product structure. However, as years move on, the surrender value would converge with
the regular unit-linked policies.

Stocks you can pick up this week


Infosys Technologies
Research: Ask
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 1,940

Infosys Technologies’ Q1 FY08 results were above the Street’s expectations. But the company has missed its topline guidance for the second time in a row (though it has outdone its EPS guidance in both quarters). Revenues, at Rs 3,773 crore, were flat sequentially (against ASK’s expectation of Rs 3,885 crore) and PAT was also flat at Rs 1,028 crore (against ASK’s expectation of Rs 945 crore). The guidance in rupee terms for FY08E has been revised downwards (-5.1% at the higher end), while the dollar guidance has been increased marginally. Though demand looks robust, the rupee seems to have taken the fizz out of the growth story. ASK has revised its FY08E EPS downwards to Rs 80 (-1.7%) and FY09E EPS to Rs 97.4 (-2.7%). It has also revised the exit P/E multiple from 25x to 24x as earnings growth has slowed considerably. ASK anticipates an EPS CAGR of 20.6% over FY07-09E (vis-à-vis 39.3% over FY05-07E). But ASK remains positive on the company’s fundamentals and believes that most of the bad news has been factored into the current market price. It maintains ‘buy’ recommendation on the stock.


Chennai Petroleum
Research: Citigroup
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 300

Citigroup has raised Chennai Petroleum Corporation (CPCL)’s FY08-09 estimates by 19-25% on the back of sustained strength in the refining cycle and reduced subsidy burden. Dividend yield of 5.6% provides downside support. The company reported PAT of Rs 323 crore (EPS Rs 21.7) during the quarter, which was slightly higher than expected due to strong gross refining margins (GRM). Reported GRM of $8.8/bbl was in line with Singapore complex GRM of $9.6/bbl. Adjusting for subsidy payouts, CPCL has broadly tracked Singapore GRMs, apart from certain one-off quarters. New estimates are based on GRMs of $6.5/bbl in FY08E and $6.0/bl in FY09E, though gains are partially offset by a stronger rupee. Citigroup does not expect pure refiners to be included in the subsidy net as duty protection has fallen to 1% and a major contribution from RIL’s refinery is unlikely, given its EOU status. Replacement cost analysis suggests further hidden value. On a conservative EV/complexity bbl of $1500 (against replacement cost of $2,000 and RIL/RPL’s current multiples of $1,900-2,200), CPCL could be worth Rs 490. The steep discount to replacement cost offsets the risks from a potential merger with IOC.


HDFC Bank
Research: Edelweiss Securities
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 1,231

HDFC Bank’s Q1 FY08 numbers were in line with Edelweiss Securities’ estimates. Net profit grew 34% YoY to Rs 320 crore, while net interest income grew 28% YoY. Net interest margins improved YoY to 4.2%, while non-interest income increased by 46%. The proportion of low-cost deposit declined slightly to 52%. The bank’s operating expenses increased 40% YoY due to expansion in its branches. Higher general provisioning led to overall provision growth of 50% YoY, while the balance sheet grew by 32% YoY. Edelweiss maintains its EPS estimate for FY08 at Rs 43 and reduces EPS estimate for FY09 by 2.15% to Rs 56.6. Edelweiss is incorporating actual FY07 numbers, reducing its margin expectations and increasing fee income growth expectations to 30% from 27.5% in FY08E. Edelweiss likes the bank for its liability franchise and asset quality. It believes the bank is a safe bet compared to its peers due to its stable and predictable growth. The stock trades at 3.1x FY09E book and 20x FY09E EPS. Edelweiss Securities’ maintains its ‘buy’ recommendation.


DLF
Research: Motilal Oswal
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 600

Motilal Oswal’s target net asset value (NAV) premium for DLF is higher than the target average it would apply for other property development companies. Motilal Oswal believes that DLF, India’s largest real estate company, is the best proxy for the promising domestic real estate opportunity. It is excited about DLF’s dominant presence in emerging segments of premium apartments, commercial offices and retail, which are highly profitable businesses with strong entry barriers. Thus, DLF is relatively better-placed to face the challenging macro environment, which will encourage lower risk premiums, going forward.


JP Associates
Research: DSP Merrill Lynch
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 870

DSP Merrill Lynch initiates coverage on JP Associates (JPA) with a ‘buy’ recommendation. JPA offers a blend of asset play (hydro power, real estate and expressway) and 20% CAGR in parent EPS over FY07-09E. Key rationales for DSP Merrill Lynch’s bullish stance are asset accretion led by infrastructure concessions, acquisition/monetisation of 6,250 acres of real estate in Noida. NAV may get a boost following rise in the value of land bank, with the likely transformation of the Delhi-Agra region led by the expressway, and the proposed Greater Noida airport. Other NAV kickers are a three-fold rise in power capacity by FY12E and new infra concessions. DSP Merrill Lynch believes JPA’s aggressive management will be able to leverage potential for growth as India builds infrastructure on the purchasing power parity (PPP) model.


Tata Motors
Research: Enam
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 767

Medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV) volumes are key to short-term profitability. Tata Motors’ product portfolio is highly leveraged towards M&HCV (~32% of volumes and >60% of EBITDA), making it vulnerable to a slowdown in the segment. M&HCV volumes remain uncertain for FY08 due to increase in lending rates and risk to fleet operator economics. But long-term drivers are in place. Tata Motors is undertaking structural changes to mitigate product cyclicality and reduce its dependence on M&HCVs from 60% of EBITDA to less than 50% over the next 2-3 years. The reasons for this are: an agreement with FIAT to jointly manufacture and distribute FIAT cars in India by end FY08, quantum of exports to increase from 18% to 25% in the next 2-3 years and substantial potential value in five key subsidiaries, especially Tata Technologies.


HDFC
Research: Goldman Sachs
Rating: Buy
CMP: Rs 1,981

Goldman Sachs believes stable macro economic conditions, a favourable growth outlook for the mortgage business and unlocking value of strategic investments are likely to be the key drivers of HDFC’s stock performance. It reiterates ‘buy’ rating on the stock, which has a total return potential of 20%. Goldman Sachs sees HDFC as a play on opportunities in the mortgage market and one that offers investors value due to growth in other areas of financial services. Over time, the value accruing from these investments, particularly life insurance, will grow faster than the value of the mortgage business. Key catalysts for the stock include signals of stable monetary conditions, a less volatile interest rate environment, earnings delivery in line with consensus expectations and clear visibility on the sell-down of some of HDFC’s strategic investments in FY08.

Aurobhindo Pharma


Aurobhindo Pharma

Corporate Tracker


Corporate Tracker

Trading Calls


Buy Hindustan Zinc with a stop loss of Rs 740 for a target of Rs 950.
Buy Cinemax with a stop loss of Rs 151 for a short-term (3 months) target of Rs 185
Buy Hanung Toys with a stop loss of Rs 133 for a short-term (3 months) target of Rs 175.
Buy Sail with a stop loss of Rs 135 for a target of Rs 210.