Indian Oil

Indian Oil

Coal India, India Capital Goods, Infosys, India Oil and Gas

Coal India, India Capital Goods, Infosys, India Oil and Gas

Indian Oil

Indian Oil

Company Background - Indianoil Corporation

Indian Refineries & Indian Oil Company were set up in 1958 and 1959 respectively, to build national competence in the oil refining and marketing business. In 1964 these two companies were merged to form the Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL). IOCL is the 21st largest petroleum company in the world and the # 1 petroleum trading company among the National Oil Companies in the Asia-Pacific region. Indian oil is also the highest ranked Indian company in the Prestigious fortune Global 500 listing moving to 153th position.

IOCL controls 10 of India's 18 refineries with a combined refining capacity of 54.20 million tonnes per annum. These includes two refineries of subsidiary Chennai Petroleum Corporation Ltd and one of Bongaigaon Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. IOCL and its subsidiaries account for 47% petroleum products market share among public sector companies, 41% national refining capacity and 51% downstream product pipeline capacity. It also owns and operates crude oil and product pipelines of over 9000 Km across the country. IOCL also has the largest marketing network in the country, comprising over 30000 sales points backed for supplies by 183 bulk storage points and depots, 88 Indane bottling plants and 97 Aviation Fuel Station to cater the Aviation, Defence as well as Civil industry. Indian oil together with IBP, operates the largest and the widest network of petrol and diesel stations in the country numbering over 15,000. In the overseas business, the company continues to explore new opportunities and coordinate business activities between its various overseas offices at Dubai, Kuwait, Kuala Lumpur, Sri Lanka and Mauritius.

IOC has it subsidiaries namely Chennai petroleum Ltd, Bongaigaon Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, IBP Co Ltd, Lanka IOC Ltd, Indian Oil Mauritius Ltd, Indian Oil Technologies Ltd, Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve Ltd.

During 2000-2001, the company acquired the entire holding of Government of India (GOI) in Chennai Petroleum Corporation (CPCL) (51.81%) for Rs.509.33 crore and Bongaigaon Refinery & Petrochemicals (BRPL) (74.46%) for Rs 148.80 crore, thereby making these companies subsidiaries of it. It has also acquired IBP & Co Ltd by purchasing 33.58% equity capital at a price of Rs.1154 crores.

As a vertical integration through E&P intitatives,the company along withONGC Videsh Ltd was awarded the Farsi Exploration Block in Iran. The mainoperator will be ONGC Videsh in which IOCL will have 40% equityparticipation.

The company is investing Rs.24,400 Crore during the X Plan period from 2002to 2007, in integration and diversification projects apart from refiningand pipeline capacity augmentation, product quality upgradation and retailexpansion. As part of expansion, the company commissioned the world largestsingle train Linear Alkyl Benzene plant at Koyali Refinery in August 2004and the on-going integrated Paxaxylene/Purified Terephthalic Acid plant &World-Scale Naphtha Cracker with downstream polymer projects are part ofthis expansion. The company is also planning to convert the ParadipRefinery into a refinery-cum-petrochemicals complex.

IOCL in association with other companies was awarded 11 exploration blocksin NELP and acquired participating interest in on-shore blocks in Assam andArunachal Pradesh region. The company has now finalised an import deal for1.75 Millions tonnes of LNG per annum with Iran for supplies from the year2009 onwards. The company has proposed to develope gas blocks in the NorthPars fields of Iran jointly with Petropars, a subsidiary of NationalIranian Oil Company. IOCL is first Indian and 6th Global Company todevelope marine Oils and also obtained global approvals for shipboardapplications in the entire family of vessels of MAN B&W,Denmark andWartsila, Finland.

During 2005 the new Panipat-Rewari product pipeline was commissioned and this network was expanded to 7,730 km. Also the company has completed LABplant at Gujarat Refinery, MS quality improvement project & Dieselhydrotreating plant at Mathura Refinery, Sidhpur-Sanganer productspipeline. Some of the ongoing projects of the company are Panipat Refineryexpansion from 6 to 12 million tonnes per annum, crude oil blendingfacilities at Mundra, bottling Plants at Ilayangudi, Raipur and Vasai.Thenew projects of the company during this period are Chennai- Bangalore product pipeline, LPG Bottling plant at Mathura etc.,

During 2005-06, Indian oil entered into South India with the commissioning of the 681-km Chennai-Trichy-Madurai product pipeline. With the commissioning of several other key projects, including the Sidhpur-Sanganer product pipeline and branchline to Ajmer and the Mundra-Churwa crude oil pipeline, the pipeline network was expanded to 9024 km during the year. A section of the Kandla-Bhatinda pipeline from Sidhpur to Sanganer was also convered to crude oil service to ensure enhanced crude oil availability to Mathura and Panipat refineries.

During the year under review, IOC completed projects for Doubling of capacity at Panipat Refinery from 6 to 12 million tonnes per annum , Paraxylene/Purified Terephthalic Acid (PX/PTA) unit at Panipat., MS quality improvement projects at Mathura and Haldia refineries, Diesel hydro-treatment facilities at Mathura Refinery, Chennai-Trichy-Madurai and Sidhpur-Sanganer product pipelines - Mundra-Churwa(Kandla) crude oil pipeline and conversion of Kandla-Panipat section of Kandla-Bhatinda pipeline to crude oil service.

IOCL's production capacity of Lubricating Oil was expanded from 286000 MTs to 525000 MTs.

Indian oil Blending company Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company was merged with the company w.e.f 12th May 2006.

The merger of IBP Co. Ltd. with IndianOil is at an advanced stage with the shareholders of both the companies approving the Scheme of Amalgamation with a swap ratio of 110 equity shares of IndianOil for 100 equity shares of IBP Co. Ltd..

The valuation process for the merger of Bongaigaon Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd. (BRPL) with IndianOil is in progress after the Boards of both the companies accorded 'in-principle' approval for the merger.

In accordance with the decision of the Government of India, IndianOil has transferred its entire equity holding in Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd. (ISPRL) to the Oil Industry Development Board, a Government body functioning under the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas. Consequently, ISPRL ceased to be a wholly-owned subsidiary of IndianOil effective 9th May, 2006. IndianOil has formed a wholly-owned subsidiary company, viz., IOC Middle East FZE, in Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone, Dubai, with the objective of marketing lubricants and other petroleum products in the Middle East, Africa and CIS regions.

A joint venture company, viz., Indo-Cat Pvt. Ltd., was incorporated in June 2006. The Company is a 50:50 venture between IndianOil and Intercat. Inc. of USA for manufacture and marketing of FCC catalysts and additives. Green Gas Ltd., was incorporated in October 2005 as a joint venture between IndianOil and GAIL (India) Ltd. for city gas distribution in Agra and Lucknow.

During 2006-07, the pipeline network was expanded to 9,273 Km. IOC also commissioned major projects like Mundra-Panipat pipeline, the Koyali-Dahej product pipeline and a branch line to Chittaugarh on the Sidhpur-Sanganer product pipeline. A state of art marketing facility was also commissioned at Trichy, Tamil Nadu on the 683 km Chennai-Trichy-Madurai product pipeline which was dedicated to the nation during the year.

The ongoing projects of IOC during the year are capacity expansion of Panipat Refinery from 12 to 15 MMTPA, Naphtha Cracker with downstream polymer units at Panipat, Hydrocracker for improvement in diesel quality and distillate yield at Haldia Refinery, Residue upgradation and petrol/diesel quality improvement at Gujarat Refinery, Paradip-Haldia crude oil pipeline Koyali-Ratlam product pipeline, Augmentation of Mundra-Panipat crude oil pipeline from 6 to 9 MMTPA, Dadri-Panipat R-LNG spur pipeline, Automation of 1,000 petrol/diesel stations, New depots/terminals at Chittaurgarh, Jasidih, Ratlam, Zewan, Lalkuan & Ennore, LPG bottling plants at Mathura and Vadodara

The New Projects under taken by the company during the year are 15 MMTPA integrated refinery-cum-petrochemicals complex at Paradip, Petrol quality upgradation projects at Panipat, Mathura, Barauni, Digboi and Guwahati refineries, Panipat-Jalandhar LPG pipeline.

During the year, IndianOil was associated with successful discoveries in two exploration blocks, one each in India and overseas. In the domestic exploration block in offshore Mahanadi, gas discovery has been made and currently the reserve potential is being assessed. In the Farsi Block in Iran, oil & gas have been discovered and the block is presently being appraised for commerciality.

The Corporation farmed-in an exploration block, Shakthil in Gabon along with Oil India Ltd. (OIL) as the operator. IndianOil and OIL have each acquired participating interest in an on-land block in Nigeria. IndianOil, in consortium with OIL and two other companies, had bid for oil & gas exploration blocks in Yemen under the third International Bid Round and succeeded in getting two blocks. Exploration work is continuing in the two exploration blocks awarded to the IndianOil-OlL consortium in Libya earlier in 2005.

In India, under the NELP-VI round of bidding, the Corporation, in consortium with other Indian partners, has been awarded two exploration blocks in Mumbai offshore.

Indian Oil Corporation Q1FY08 result Update (Accumulate)

Indian Oil Corporation Q1FY08 result Update (Accumulate)

Citigroup - HPCL, BPCL, IOC

Citigroup on BPCL

Our target price for BPCL of Rs385 based on an FY08E EV/EBITDA of 5.5x for core earnings and 2.0x to contribution from oil bonds. We use FY08E as a base considering a normalized earnings scenario along with improved marketing profitability (in line with lower crude) but continued policy ambiguity. While valuing the Indian oil refining and marketing companies, we prefer to use EV/EBITDA to compare companies across the region to avoid differences in accounting policies in depreciation and taxation. Our target price is also based on an FY06E P/BV of 1.4x, between the value we ascribe to HPCL and IOC, justified given the better mix of refining and marketing BPCL as compared to HPCL, but a lower proportion of high-yielding pipeline assets vis-a-vis IOC.

Citigroup on HPCL

We assign a Medium Risk rating to the stock, even though our quantitative rating system rates the stock Low Risk, as we believe volatility in international oil prices will continue to impact earnings given the linkage to marketing margins. Sentiment towards the sector and HPCL is closely linked to crude price fluctuations, sector deregulation, subsidy losses, and auto fuel price hikes. Upside risks to our target price include: a further decline in crude prices (to US$50-55/bbl) and stronger-than-expected recovery in the company's marketing profitability leading to higher-than-estimated returns; if the government took concrete pricing action on retail products to bring them in line with international prices, it would put our earnings forecasts at risk; and on the macro front, if the government were to adopt the Downstream Regulatory Bill, appoint an independent regulator, and give pricing freedom to the oil-marketing companies, it would likely give a fillip to the stock price.

Citigroup on IOC

Our target price for IOC of Rs450 is based on an FY08E EV/EBITDA of 6.0x—at a premium to BPCL and HPCL and 2.0x the contribution from oil bonds. We are maintaining a valuation premium (for core earnings) to BPCL and HPCL considering IOC's superior revenue mix and sustainable competitive advantage. The target price includes the value of IOC's holdings in ONGC and GAIL at current market prices worth Rs103/share at a 20% discount to the current market prices. IOC has stated its intention to liquidate a part of the crossholdings in ONGC and GAIL in installments, the first tranche of which was completed earlier this year. While valuing the Indian oil refining and marketing companies, we prefer to use EV/EBITDA to compare companies across the regions to avoid the differences in accounting policies on depreciation and taxation. Our target price is also based on an FY06E P/BV of 1.6x, at a premium to BPCL/HPCL given IOC's lower proportion of marketing assets as a proportion of total assets.

HPCL, IVRCL, IOC, Larsen Tourbo, BHEL

Merrill Lynch in their report on HPCL,

Attractive dividend yield, P/BV of 0.99; retain Buy HPCL's FY07 EPS, at Rs46.4, is almost 4x FY06 EPS of Rs12. Quality of FY07 earnings is admittedly poor as it is entirely attributable to oil bonds. There is also uncertainty on FY08E earnings. However, recent government decisions suggest bond issue may be generous even in FY08. HPCL's dividend yield is attractive - 6.5% for FY07 and 5.4% for FY08E. It is also cheaper than peers on PE and is trading marginally below estimated NAV. We retain our Buy rating on HPCL.


Merrill Lynch on IVRCL

Key Triggers: Growth, Margin Expansion & IVR Prime IPO IVRCL, our top pick in the mid-cap E&C space, reported solid 4QFY07 on all fronts. Sales were up Rs10bn +67%YoY; EBITDA margin expanded by 140bpsYoY & PAT of Rs732mn, +67%YoY. PAT was ahead of MLe due to better margins & non-prov of full tax (25% v/s MLe 32%) pending appeal in tribunal. Order backlog remains robust at ~3x FY07 sales. Value creation through the listing of IVR Prime, and 42% earnings CAGR in core business are potential triggers ahead. Buy, PO Rs450.

ENAM on Mahindra & Mahindra

While outlook for the subsidiaries remains buoyant, we are concerned about a likely moderation in the core business and the high capex outlined by M&M and its JVs (details on pg2). We continue to maintain our sector Neutral rating on the stock. At CMP of Rs 765, the stock trades at 10x FY08E and 9.2x FY09E core EPS of Rs 34.6 and Rs 38.5 respectively. Our target price of Rs 825 is based on 12x FY08 core EPS + value of subsidiaries at Rs 410/ share.


ENAM on Larsen and Tourbo

L&T’s management has guided for 25-30% revenues as well as order intake growth and 11% margins for the E&C business. Further, its tie up for supercritical technology in thermal power, foray into shipbuilding, defense and aerospace are likely to drive long term growth for L&T. Value unlocking of its IDPL and Infotech subsidiaries will be the icing on the cake. We maintain our earnings estimates. At CMP (Rs 1,857), the stock trades at 12.0x FY08E and 8.5x FY09E EV/EBIDTA (adj. for investments Rs 218). Maintain sector Outperformer and a target of Rs 2200

ENAM on IOC

Maintain Outperformer, retain price target IOC in our opinion is a low risk play in the OMC pack, given its diversified revenue stream. Also, given its relatively low regulatory
exposure to earnings, its valuations are likely to be at a premium to its domestic peers. We maintain our sector Outperformer rating and a target of Rs 525

ENAM on HPCL

HPCL reported profits largely on the back of oil bonds and upstream subsidiary assistance. Going ahead in FY08 profits remain leveraged to - (1) issuance of oil bonds and (2) sustained assistance from the upstream subsidiary. We still await clarity on the subsidy sharing mechanism as well as on the issuance of oil bonds. Given this weak
regulatory outlook, earnings uncertainty remains high and therefore HPCL is likely to trade at a discount to regional peers. HPCL has declared a final dividend of Rs12/share (in addition to an interim dividend of Rs 6/share) thereby offering a yield of 4.5% on the final dividend. This is likely to offer support for the stock. We maintain our
sector Underperformer rating. Target of Rs 280.

ENAM on BHEL

A healthy order backlog of Rs 550bn provides a strong near-term growth visibility. BHEL has an estimated outlay of Rs 44bn over FY08-09E taking its total capacity from 6000MW to 15000MW. Factoring in the higher than estimated order inflows in Q4FY07, we raise our FY08 earnings estimates by 10% to Rs 31.2bn and introduce a FY09 earnings estimate of Rs 36.3bn. We believe that order intake traction is likely to significantly slow down going forward due to increasing competitive intensity, technology gaps in the high rating hydro, nuclear and 765kv T&D space, and limited visibility in the fast growing super-critical technology space. Despite this, BHEL has set a target of doubling revenues in 3 years and reaching USD 10bn in revenues by FY12. This implies that BHEL may end up servicing unfavorable international contracts.
Hence, we believe that a premium in valuations is not justified given the uncertainties cited above. At CMP (Rs 2,856) the stock trades at a 13.2x FY08E EV/ EBIDTA. We maintain our sector Underperformer with a target of Rs 2500

Nestle, Indraprastha Gas, IOC, CBoP, Gokaldas

ENAM recommends OUTPERFORMER on Nestle

We believe Nestlé India has a significant intrinsic value (~Rs 2056 per share) and value unlocking will unfold in stages on successful introduction of brands / products from its parent¿s global portfolio and an improvement in its existing portfolio¿s reach and affordability in the rural markets. At CMP (Rs.1143) Nestlé India is currently trading at P/E of 24x CY08E and EV/EBITDA of 14x CY08E, close to its long-term one-year forward valuations. Given the growth momentum and EBITDA margin (pre provisions) expansion in Q1CY07, we believe the company has the potential to positively surprise consensus growth expectations in the interim term. We maintain sector Outperformer rating on the stock.


ISEC recommends BUY on Indraprastha Gas

IGL reported impressive 35% YoY growth in Q4FY07 recurring net income to Rs401mn, the best ever quarterly performance. Recurring net income was 11% higher than our estimates on the back of higherthan- expected volumes and margins. The company's growth prospects are bright based on accelerated conversion of private vehicles to CNG and incremental demand of 1,000 CNG buses due to Commonwealth Games in '10. Valuations are attractive as the stock has fallen 14.1% YoY and has underperformed the BSE-200 45% in the past one year. Maintain BUY.

ISEC on Indian Oil Corporation

Indian Oil (IOC) reported recurring net income of Rs29bn in Q4FY07 as against Rs8bn in Q4FY06. The impressive 262.5% YoY growth was post pro-rata adjustment of oil bonds worth Rs65.7bn issued to IOC in Q4FY06 for full FY06. However, reported net income at Rs16.1bn was down 60.1% YoY. Overall, fall in crude prices reduced gross underrecoveries, which, along with the surprise increase in subsidy relief through upstream sharing and oil boosted IOC¿s performance. Further, the healthy outlook on refining margins and expected reforms on cooking fuel subsidies is a key positive for IOC. Added drivers include the impact of the company¿s petrochemicals business (paraxylene, PTA) and the upside from oil & gas finds from IOC¿s E&P assets. The stock rose 13.2% QoQ, outperforming the Sensex 7.7% QoQ based on the benign subsidy sharing scheme implemented by the Government. The stock is currently trading at FY07 P/E of 8.3x.

ENAM on Centurion Bank of Punjab

Our FY08 numbers take into account the LKB merger, Bank of Muscat preferential allotment and a part of warrants conversion by Sabre Capital. This will keep the reported ROE low, but the ROA will likely be maintained at 0.8%. Given that valuations at 3.6x FY09E are rich, the stock may underperform in the short term. However, along with the strong growth prospects and high execution capability, the bank is also a strong takeover candidate post 2009. Hence, valuations are
likely to remain high in the coming years. Maintaining our sector Outperformer rating on the stock.

ENAM on Indraprastha Gas

In our view, market is largely ignoring IGL¿s business franchise, itsability to manage the costs and seems to be concerned on the impactregulations. However, at current valuations (9.8x FY08E EPS), theconcerns seem to be overdone, making it one of the mostinexpensive stock in oil & gas universe. We maintain our sectorOutperformer rating on the stock.

Merrill Lynch on Gokaldas Exports

Valuations at 10x FY08E PER, look undemanding, being at the lowest end of thehistoric PE band (12-15x). However, with expectations of an earnings slowdown inFY08, these multiples may just about be right, for now. We note that impendinglabor reforms and the big domestic opportunity remain as key long term growthdrivers for Gokaldas. However, in the absence of any near term triggers and theoverhanging concern on Re appreciation, we maintain our Neutral rating

Kotak - Ranbaxy, Nagarjuna Constructions, VSNL, Mahindra & Mahindra, Indian Oil Corporation

Kotak Instutional Recommendations

Indian Oil Corporation

IOCL reported 4QFY07 standalone adjusted net income at Rs29.1 bn (reported Rs16.1 bn) versus our estimated Rs30.7 bn. The difference between adjusted and reported net incomereflects decrease in value of investments in IBP (Rs13.2 bn), which has been merged withIOCL. 4QFY07 results include FY2007 financials of IBP and thus are not comparable withresults of 3QFY07 or 4QFY06. FY2007 reported net income is Rs75 bn (Rs56.2 bnadjusted) versus Rs49.2 bn (without IBP). We see little merit in analyzing quarterly resultsgiven (1) merger of IBP with IOCL and (2) quarterly volatility in the amount of oil bondsand payment from upstream companies. We have fine-tuned FY2008, FY2009 andFY2010 consolidated EPS estimates to Rs63.6, Rs62.7 and Rs55.2 versus Rs62.8, Rs62.1and Rs59.7, respectively, previously. We retain our 12-month target price of Rs500, whichis based on a 30% discount to our 5X normalized EBITDA. Key downside risk is higherthan-expected subsidy losses.

Mahindra & Mahindra

M&M reported 4Q recurring net profit at Rs2.3 bn ' a 33% yoy growth in-line with our estimate of Rs2.6 bn. Net sales for the quarter at Rs27.5bn increased 20% yoy. This was on account of a 15% increase in volumes and 5% increase in realisations. 4Q EBITDA margins at 11.4% declined 30 bps yoy and 60 bps qoq. There was an exceptional profit of Rs100mn during the quarter on account of sale of certain long term investments. We maintain our consolidated fully diluted EPS estimates for M&M for FY2008 at Rs67.8 and for FY2009 at Rs85.0. We maintain our OP rating on the stock with a SOTP based target
price of Rs1,000 based on Rs613 for M&M stand-alone at 7.1X FY2009 EV/EBITDA equivalent to 11.4X FY2009 P/E and Rs387 for value in key subsidiaries of the company (valued at 20% discount to market value of holding). We shall be revising our numbers shortly.

VSNL


VSNL's 4QFY07 reported net income (standalone) of Rs1.31 bn was 4% ahead of our estimates of Rs1.26 bn. EBITDA declined 6% qoq to Rs2.4 bn, 6% lower than our estimate of Rs2.6 bn. Year-end seasonality along with one-off items to the tune of Rs600 mn such as provision for doubtful debts, legal and professional charges and R&M costs impacted EBITDA performance. Voice and data business demonstrated robust performance. We have fine-tuned FY2008E and FY2009E EBITDA to Rs10.4 bn and Rs11.7 bn from Rs10.4 bn and Rs11.2 bn, respectively previously. We will wait for FY2007 annual report and full consolidated accounts to convert our earnings model to consolidated basis. Our 12-month SOTP-based target price of Rs560 faces risk from continued delay in unlocking of land value and aggressive pricing competition

Nagarjuna Constructions

Nagarjuna construction has reported revenues of Rs8.7 bn in 4QFY07 versus our expectation of Rs10.5 bn and EBITDA (before other income) of Rs737 mn versus our expectation of Rs901mn respectively. EBITDA margin at 8.4% was about 20 bps lower
than our expectations. Order backlog at the end of FY2007 was Rs73 bn, providing a visibility of 1.8 years based on forward 12 month revenues. We revise our FY2008 EPS estimated downwards based on lower execution versus our earlier expectations. We revise our DCF based target price to Rs204/share from Rs198 earlir based on higher valuation of investment in Land bank/BOT projects. We maintain out perform rating based on strong macro outlook and value unlocking in real estate and infrastructure holding subsidiary.

Ranbaxy

Ranbaxy has acquired from Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) the US rights to a group of 13 dermatol/asaogy products. These brands have revenues of US$15 mn and have been acquired for US$26 mn. Clearly, these are small tail-end brands, which were not being promoted by BMS. Ranbaxy hopes to grow these brands by promoting them (through its existing dermatology sales force) and thereby improving profitability. The acquisition will add about 4% to US revenues (1% to total revenues) and is likely to be EPS neutral for the next two years, assuming that deal price will be amortised over ten-years. We have an OP rating on the stock.

Indian Banks

Key highlights of the financial results of Indian banks for 4QFY07 are:
a) Most banks maintain margins, despite fall in CASA for a few
b) Credit growth remained robust and led to increased reliance on bulk deposits for most
banks,
c) Non-interest income remained robust aided by fee income and loan loss recoveries,
d) Higher provisions (NPL, standard asset and investment depreciation losses) impacted
overall PAT growth.
e) Some banks like Indian Bank, PNB and Federal Bank made higher provisions than
mandated by RBI regulations to strengthen their balance sheets.

We continue to maintain preference for banks focusing on moderate asset expansion and funding their loan growth through core deposits. PNB, IOB, Andhra Bank, SBI, Federal Bank and J&K Bank are our favored stocks in this space given their valuations and growth outlook.

Citigroup Reports

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