Kal Phir Aayega

Not my views .. I only post their views.. There are followers of Chamatkar .. this is for them.. if you don't follow them .. just ignore ..

There was nothing wrong in the market which made market operators to create this kind of V share (to be realized) correction. Correction is over and come what it may market will cross previous high in next 30 days. Once again I am telling bolding that markets will cross 16 K before Dec 07. My conviction is based on certain factors which our economist shows to us and also with my reading of the market. I am sure it is not easy bullet to digest at this given point in time.

CRR hike is really positive and market drivers used this trigger to create an ideal platform for Wave 3 rally starting from tomorrow. It all started with RBI which killed the entire lending industry against shares which in other way saved millions of retail investors who were deprived of this facility. This was factored in by the big operators. They even did not like Cairns getting valuations 4 times better than RIL an Indian MNC. Third important factor is the under leveraged positions and funding was available to only HNI and big drivers for whom 1000 points correction is digestible and therefore we have not seen any stains of blood on retail investors especially who are trading in B gr. Sanguine still takers though RIL, ACC and SBI lost 20% each in less than 3 days. This will prove once again that we should not trade intra-day as well as in derivatives. The only way to make money is B gr shares. Fourth important factor is the community of arbitrage (FII) started selling cash because the difference in cash stock and futures stock started rising beyond 1% which is a good spread. Rs 20000 crs is the arbitrage position which can vitiate any market on a given day and for FII manipulation becomes easy. Simply sell in cash in huge quantity which will confuse the best in the industry and buy in futures. The reversal will have reverse impact with cash stock prices rising. This will also explain why they FII cash plus and futures minus.

Only one thing I will repeat again is that correction never comes when you want it and when come you can't buy it. Ever since 12500 FII wanted correction of 1000 odd points not because correction was due but simply they were feeling the heat of left out in the second wave too. However at 14 K they echoed that if you talk of correction Sensex target 20 K and no correction Sensex target of 30 K and suddenly the correction started. Its not a great deal that market has corrected. Market is taking U turn because now sellers are afraid to sell fresh at 12800. Who bell the cat first is the situation for all the funds because all fund managers are alike and lack the skill and dynamism our Indian operators like KP, RJ and AK possess. This is the precise reason only few funds like RIL MF are known as most prolific and dynamic funds.

When we were chatting on market and I was suggesting a bottom of 12800 to one of FII fund manager, he disagreed and passed a joke…"Some Big FII wanted to invest in India but had condition to enter at 10,000. He approached; FM said no problem Dear….. we will bring in 7 days flat and rest is in front of you." Well as far as my opinion is concerned market has bottomed out and the recovery will be equally sharp.

I kwon lot of investors must have criticized us including me for our failure to predict market movement. We believe your next door neighbor should always be a critic especially if they belong to a category which has no identity of their own. Hawa me taash ka GHAR nahie banta, Rone se bigda mukkaddar nahi banta, Duniya ko jitney ka hausala rakho yaro, Ek jit aur haar se koi sikkandar ya faqir nahi banta. KAL PHIR AAYEGA……

Best picks in U turn are Bajaj Auto, RIL, Sterlite, IPCL, Tisco, Tata Motors, Maruti and ACC till budget. I expect fireworks and only after 2 week or as and when market crosses earlier top of 14 K investors will realize my version. Please save this article till the time I will come back to you


Thanks Vinit

Chamatkar - Chakry - Rollover in process....

Microsoft picked 10% stake in TCS China which was followed by Tata Investment stake sell. In short RNT is for stake sell in TCS en route India, China, US or Mauritius on order to meet the Tisco costs. End of the day Tisco debt component will become manageable and analysts will be compelled to re-rate Tisco. I personally believe that Tisco has potential to cross Rs 800 in next 6 months. Sterlite, Hindalco and Tata Motors along with MTNL will remain our best picks.

Market corrected a bit because market was expecting big B kind action from RNT in Tisco board meeting which was a bit disappointment and speculators unwinding RIL positions once it failed to cross Rs 1290 decisively second time in 2 days. Well, we remain bullish not much worried about rollover though OI has crossed all time high at Rs 55000 crs. It includes Dec figures of Rs 9000 crs and options of Rs 19000 crs which was hitherto never crossed Rs 15000 crs. In May 06 it was Rs 15000 crs. The gross stock future is just Rs 25900 crs which is well below the May 06 figure and therefore I do not think so market is overbought though figures suggest artificially so. Manipulation of KEY nos is the history geography and science of Indian stock markets whether it is in term of nos or disclosure requirements. E g Exchanges requires small and retail investors to disclose all traders above .5% whereas FII buys bindhast without any disclosers because the penalty is just Rs 5000 for the same which are they are ready to pay on each trade and every day. Double standard is dangerous as well as against the interest of retail investors. Operators always manipulate various loopholes in law and take retail investors for ride such as the cash settlement is the derivative segment instead physical settlement which still proves that we will require another 20 odd years to match the global standards in reality though on paper our speed of globalization is largest. D mat scams, banking scams are happening here where penalty of Rs 116 crs is levied by the market regulators and going by past experiences the quantum of revenue loss could be at least 100 times bigger than the penalty figure. We have no option to carry on like this.

B gr stocks were smart movers today especially operators driven where the luring effect is quite large. At Chamatkar we have adopted the approach of bottom up stocks so that retail investors should not get stuck. We will continue to avoid all market friendly daily rising stocks which will correct over 50 to 100 pc once market loses its steam. In fact, few of old recommendation such as Uttam Sugar, Kothari Sugar etc have collapsed vertically though fundamentals do not suggest so. This is going to happen the end of every Bull Run and will not be an exception even this time. Therefore always try to exit as and when suggested by MB team.

Thanks Vinit