Alphageo - BUY

We recommend a buy in Alphageo (India) from a short-term perspective. It is apparent from the charts of Alphageo that it has been on a long-term downtrend from its life-time high of Rs 1,078 recorded in early January. Since then, the stock has been forming lower troughs and lower peaks. During mid-September, the stock’s downtrend accelerated and it declined steeply. However, the stock found support at Rs 103 (52-week low) on November 20 and bounced up forming inverted hammer candlestick pattern, which indicates short-term bullishness. We observe that the stock has a significant long-term support at Rs 100 that is 1994 peak and 2006 low. Moreover, we notice that the daily relative strength index is displaying positive divergence and moving average convergence and divergence also is displaying positive divergence. The weekly RSI is hovering in the oversold territory. We take a contrarian view on the stock from a short-term perspective and anticipate it to make a corrective up move until it hits our price target of Rs 120 in the impending trading sessions. Traders with short-term perspective can buy the stock while maintaining a stop-loss at Rs 102.

Alphageo India

Alphageo India

Sharekhan Investor's Eye June 25, 2007

Tourism Finance Corporation of India
Cluster: Cannonball
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs30
Current market price: Rs17.1

Riding on improved prospects for tourism sector

Key points

• To benefit from the positive outlook on tourism sector: Tourism Finance Corporation of India's (TFCI) deteriorating financial performance and increasing NPAs were a direct consequence of the downturn in the tourism sector in the late 1990s. However, the positive outlook for the tourism sector going forward would significantly benefit TFCI in terms of higher loan growth.
• Substantial improvement in asset quality: TFCI has significantly improved its asset quality. Its net NPAs, which were high at 11% in FY2004, were at 2.6% in FY2006 and are expected to fall further in FY2007. Higher recoveries and lower incremental NPAs have helped reduce the level of its NPAs.
• Possible foray into private equity space to boost future earnings: TFCI is also reported to be in talks with major private hotel chains, real estate funds and private equity players to raise private equity to finance large hotel projects. This will enable TFCI to generate a fee income, and increase its ability to co-invest and lend.
• Dividend payment now possible: Due to its high NPAs, TFCI was not permitted by the RBI to pay dividends in FY2005 and FY2006. TFCI had paid a dividend of Rs0.7 per share in FY2004. If it resumes dividend payment at the earlier historical rate, the dividend yield would work out to 4%, which could provide a margin of safety for the stock.
• Stock could trade at Rs30: TFCI had a reported book value of Rs27 per share in FY2006. The stock is trading at 0.6x trailing book and is cheaper than most other financial stocks. At our target price/book value of 0.8x for FY2009, the price target for the stock works out to Rs30 per share. We believe that the valuation at 0.8x is reasonable given that the company has never made losses, its NPAs have turned around and its loan growth is expected to be strong with the improving prospects of the hotel and tourism industry. We therefore recommend a Buy on TFCI with a price target of Rs30.

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STOCK

UPDATE

Alphageo India
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs395
Current market price: Rs370

Price target revised to Rs395

Result highlights

• Alphageo India has reported a 56.7% growth in its revenues to Rs29.5 crore for the fourth quarter ended March 2007. This is in line with our estimate of Rs29 crore.
• The operating profit margin declined by 5.3% to 44.5% during the quarter, largely due to the incremental cost related to the third 3D crew. The crew became operational only in the latter part of Q4FY2007 but the staff cost for the same was reflected in the entire quarter.
• The net profit grew by 41% to Rs6 crore which is marginally higher than our estimate of Rs5.9 crore.
• On the full year basis, the revenue and earnings have grown by 127.5% to Rs54.3 crore and 80.2% to Rs7.5 crore respectively.
• Along with the results, the board has approved a dividend of 15% (or Rs1.5 per share) for the existing shareholders.
• The company had a pending order book of Rs110 crore as of end March 2007. The order book is executable over the next five quarters and provides a strong visibility for the revenue growth in FY2008. Accordingly, we have revised upwards our estimates for FY2008. At the current market price the stock trades at 11.2x FY2008 estimated earnings. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised price target of Rs395 (12x FY2008 estimated earnings).

Hindustan Unilever
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs280
Current market price: Rs188

To prune margins at stockists
According to media reports, Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL) is expected to prune the margins of the stockists with an intention to bring in efficiencies. It is still not clear to what extent the company would bring down the margins though. Till now, the company had allowed its stockists to keep a little less than 5% as margins. The other fast moving consumer goods companies in the business like Amul pay their dealers margins in the region of 3%

Sharekhan Investor's Eye June 25, 2007

Alphageo India: Sharekhan Stock Idea dated November 29, 2006

Alphageo India
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs214
Current market price: Rs150

Back on the shopping list

Key points

• Order wins improve growth visibility: Alphageo India (Alphageo) has recently bagged orders worth Rs32 crore and has built a healthy pipeline of orders that is likely to bring in additional orders of around Rs30-35 crore. The company also has an option to accept a Rs20-crore low-margin order from Oil India. Consequently, the revenue growth visibility for the next fiscal (FY2008) has improved considerably. Moreover, one of the orders is from Rajasthan (as against the current concentration of order backlog from the North-East region), which should help in mitigating the seasonality pattern resulting from the closure of operations during the monsoon season in the North-East region.
• Growth to be funded through equity dilution: The huge capital investment required to support the estimated exponential growth in revenues is likely to be partially funded by dilution of equity. The company is expected to raise around Rs15 crore through a preferential issue of shares/warrants to promoters and/or institutional investors. The issue is estimated to result in 22% dilution of its equity base.
• Re-initiating coverage: We are re-initiating coverage on Alphageo as the visibility of its revenue growth has improved considerably on the back of the recent order wins and the healthy order pipeline. Consequently, we recommend a Buy call on the stock with a price target of Rs214 (10x its FY2008 estimated earnings per share on a diluted equity base).

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