Jesse Lauriston Livermore - on Speculation

• "In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end."

• "My dear boy," said old Partridge, in great distress "my dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position; and then where would I be?"

• "It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight!"

• "Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon."

• "The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."

• "He really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend."

• "Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market."

• "When your security is acting right, you can safely add to your line from then forward!"

• "When I buy stocks for a rise I like to pay top prices and when I sell I must sell low or not at all."

• "When this happens I sell the stock short that is, technically. In other words, I sell more stock than I actually hold."

• "Experience has proved to me that real money made in speculating has been in commitments in a stock or commodity showing a profit right from the start."

• "It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade, than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."

• "If my stock does not act as I anticipated, I immediately determine that the time is not yet ripe – so I close out my commitment."

• "The price pattern reminds you that every movement of importance is but a repetition of similar price movements, that just as soon as you can familiarize yourself with the actions of the past, you will be able to anticipate and act correctly and profitably upon forthcoming movements."

• "From my point of view, the investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if all goes wrong, they lose it all."

• "A great many smashes by brilliant men can be traced directly to the swelled head — an expensive disease everywhere to everybody, but particularly in Wall Street to a speculator."

• "There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side"

I-Flex Solutions

I-Flex Solutions

International Travel House

International Travel House

FIIs continue selling

Outflow of Rs 528.20 crore on 6 February 2008

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth net Rs 528.20 crore on Wednesday, 6 February 2008, compared to their buying of Rs 576.90 crore on Tuesday, 5 February 2008.

FII outflow of Rs 528.20 crore on 6 February 2008 was a result of gross purchases of Rs 2224.70 crore and gross sales Rs 2752.90 crore. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined 523.67 points or 2.81% at 18,139.49 on that day.

FII inflow in February 2008 totaled Rs 1500.30 crore (till 6 February 2008). FII outflow in calendar year 2008 totaled Rs 11,535.30 crore (till 6 February 2008).

There are a total of 1,283 FIIs registered with the Securities & Exchange Board of India (Sebi).

Precious metals glitter for second straight day

Gold and silver prices rise on supply concerns

Bullion metals rose for the second consecutive day today, Thursday, 7 February, 2008. Prices rose as news of potential supply shortages in South Africa hit the market. Chances of interest rate cut across the world also fuelled up prices. Silver prices also ended considerably higher for the day.

Gold generally moves in the opposite direction of the U.S. currency. Gold, as a dollar-denominated commodity, suffers from dollar strength.

Comex Gold for April delivery rose $5 (0.6%) to close at $910 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after hitting an intraday high of $915.4 earlier in the day. Last Wednesday, 30 January, 2008 prices had hit a high of $941 in the after hours trading. This year, prices have gained 9.5% till date. In Janauary, prices gained 11%, the highest monthly gain since April 2006. Last week, gold prices closed lower by $2.7 (0.3%) against previous close of $916.1.

Comex Silver futures for March today rose by 22.5 cents (1.4%) to $16.775 an ounce. Silver has gained 12% in 2008. The metal had climbed 16% in FY 2007. The metal also has gained for seven straight years. In January this year itself, prices climbed 14%.

The Bank of England today cut its benchmark lending rate for the second time since December and the European Central Bank had also signaled it might lower rates later this year.

Gold has traditionally been used as a safe-haven asset against rising inflation. Investor sentiments are boosted by the fact that gold and silver are alternate sources of good investment in the face of declining dollar and rising energy prices. Rising crude increases inflationary pressures and vice versa. On the other hand strong dollar reduces the appeal of the metal as alternate source of investment.

As per reports, severe power shortages in South Africa, the world's second-largest gold producer are posing serious threats to mine production.

In the currency markets today, the dollar surged against the British pound sterling and was also up against the euro, after the Bank of England cut its benchmark a quarter point as expected and the European Central Bank held rates steady. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was at 76.701, up from 76.095.

On 31 January, 2008, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates 0.5% point to 3% today. This was on top of the 75 bps rate cut to 3.5% that Fed did earlier this year. The interest rate cuts are to avoid the US economy from plunging into recession.

Gold witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.

Gold had climbed 31% ($200/ounce) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. The Fed reduced federal funds rate three times in FY 2007.

At the MCX, gold prices for April delivery closed higher by Rs 46 (0.4%) at Rs 11,536 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 11,584 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 11,435 per 10 grams during the day’s trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for March delivery closed Rs 209 (0.98%) higher at Rs 21,469/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 21,264/kg and rose to a high of Rs 21,575/Kg during the day’s trading.

Crude rises due to Nigerian production disruption

Prices rise for the second consecutive day as production disruption slated to continue

Crude prices rose today, Thursday, 7 February, 2008 after dropping in the previous two sessions. Natural gas and fuel product prices also rose today after EIA reported another drop in natural gas inventories.

Crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for March delivery today closed at $88.11/barrel (higher by $0.97/barrel or 1.1%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are 53% higher than a year ago. Earlier it fell to a low of $86.24/barrel.

Crude prices rose today after Royal Dutch Shell said that a disruption at a Nigerian terminal will last through March.

Yesterday, crude prices dropped more than 1% to close at $87.14 a barrel after the U.S. Energy Department reported that crude inventories rose by 7 million barrels in the week ending 1 February, much higher than the 2.5 million barrels expected.

Brent crude oil for March settlement today rose $0.73 (0.8%) to $88.51 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The London benchmark rose 54% in FY 2007, the most since 1999 when prices more than doubled.

Crude had ended FY 2007 substantially higher by $35 or 57%. It was crude’s biggest yearly gain in five years.

Natural gas in New York rose today after EIA report showed that U.S. supplies fell more than forecast. Gas for March delivery rose 10.8 cents (1.4%) to settle at $8.102 per million British thermal units.

EIA reported today that natural gas stockpiles declined 200 billion cubic feet to 2.062 trillion cubic feet for the week ended 1 February, against an withdrawal of 186 billion cubic feet.

Against this backdrop, March reformulated gasoline gained 2.79 cents to $2.2678 a gallon, and March heating oil rose 3.97 cents to $2.4585 a gallon.

Last week, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to keep current output levels unchanged.

At the MCX, crude oil for February delivery closed at Rs 3,458/barrel, higher by Rs 24 (0.7%) against previous day’s close. Natural gas for February delivery closed at Rs 316.2/mmtbu, higher by Rs 3/mmtbu (0.95%).

Insights Monthly

Insights Monthly

Rural Electrification IPO to open on Feb 19 2008

Rural Electrification Corporation (REC), one of the leading public financial institutions in Indian power infrastructure, proposes to enter the capital markets on Feb. 19, 2008 with a public issue of 156.12 million equity shares of Rs 10 each through 100% book building process.

The issue comprises a fresh issue of up to 78.06 million equity shares by REC and an offer for sale of up to 78.06 million equity shares by the president of India acting through the ministry of power. The net issue to the public will be up to 152.21 million equity shares, after allowing for reservation of up to 3.90 million equity shares for subscription by eligible employees as defined in the red herring prospectus (RHP). The issue shall constitute nearly 18.18% of the fully diluted post-issue capital of REC. The Issue closes on Feb. 22, 2008 and the price band has been fixed at Rs 90 to Rs 105 a
share of Rs 10 each. IL & FS Investsmart Securities, ICICI Securities and SBI Capital Markets are helping the company to raise maximum of Rs 16.39 billion via this issue.

The company proposes to utilize the net proceeds from the fresh issue to augment its capital base to meet the future capital requirements arising out of growth in its assets, primarily its loan and investment portfolio due to the growth of the Indian economy and for other general corporate purposes including meeting the expenses of the issue. The company is seeking to strengthen its capital base to improve its borrowing capacity in order to support the future growth in its assets.

REC is one of the leading public financial institutions in Indian power infrastructure, engaged in the financing and promotion of transmission, distribution and generation projects throughout India. It occupies a key position in the GoI`s plans for the growth of the Indian power sector. Since its inception in 1969, the company`s mandate has evolved to permit it to finance all segments of the power sector throughout the country. It provides funding to clients and assists them in formulating and implementing various types of power project-related schemes. Its clients include public sector power utilities at the central and state levels and private sector power utilities. Additionally, it finances power projects for its joint sector clients. It aims to capitalize on the increasing private sector participation in the Indian power sector.

The company occupies a unique position within the area of rural electrification of India and it currently administer grants and provide loans as the nodal agency for the RGGVY, which is primarily aimed at the electrification of all villages in India. As a public sector undertaking, it has been accorded `Mini Ratna Grade-I` status by the GoI by virtue of its operational efficiency and financial strength, which affords greater operational freedom and autonomy in decision-making.

Domestically, it holds long-term borrowing ratings of `AAA`/Stable from CRISIL, `LAAA` from ICRA and `AAA(ind)` from Fitch, each of which is the highest long-term domestic rating of the respective agency. On an international basis, the company holds long-term borrowing ratings of `BBB-` and `Baa3` from Fitch and Moody`s, respectively, which are on par with sovereign ratings for India.

Nifty February futures at discount

Turnover in F&O segment declines

Nifty February 2008 futures were at 5087.35, at a discount of 45.90 points as compared to spot closing of 5133.25.

The NSE futures & options (F&O) segment turnover was Rs 40,921.83 crore, which was lower than Rs 42,234.95 crore on Wednesday, 6 February 2008.

Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) February 2008 futures were at premium, at 151.55, compared to the spot closing of 150.90.

Reliance Energy (REL) February 2008 futures were at premium, at 1994.55, compared to the spot closing of 1987.30.

Reliance Communications (RCOM) February 2008 futures were at premium, at 646, compared to the spot closing of 644.65.

In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 189.3 points or 3.56% at 5133.25.

Hero Honda, Parsvnath Developers, Madhucon Projects, Shoppers Stop, Dalmia Cement

Hero Honda, Parsvnath Developers, Madhucon Projects, Shoppers Stop, Dalmia Cement

Sistema investing big in India

Russian conglomerate Sistema will invest up to $5 billion (about Rs 20,000 crore) in India's fast growing telecom sector in the next three years to create a world-class telecom network across the country.

Sistema has finalised an agreement with Indian telecom services provider Shyam Telelink, the unlisted telecom services arm of the Shyam Telecom Group, to acquire 74% stake in the company.

Senior management of Sistema would accompany Russian Prime Minister Victor A Zubkov on his 3-day visit to India beginning February 11.

Shyam Telelink has got Letters of Intent for 22 circles on January 10 and is all set to get the spectrum to start rolling out mobile services network in association with Russian giant Sistema.

Shyam is an existing service provider in Rajasthan and is offering mobile services under the Unified Access Services (UAS) license.

Sistema has already committed $1 billion in investment for its plans in Shyam Telelink, said Alexender Goncharuk, president, Sistema.

"We will invest whatever it takes for a competitive world class all-India telecom network in the shortest possible time.The total investment in India would be in the range of $4-5 billion in the next three years," he added.

The deal with Shyam Telelink has also marked Sistema's entry into the Indian telecom sector. Sistema is the largest mobile operator in Russia, seventh in the world, and has over 81 million wireless subscribers.

Sistema's foundation businesses are telecommunications, high technology and real estate.

Insurance Sector

Insurance Sector

NSE Bulk Deal Watch - Feb 7 2008

Date,Symbol,Security Name,Client Name,Buy/Sell,Quantity Traded,Trade Price / Wght. Avg. Price,Remarks
07-FEB-2008,BURNPUR,Burnpur Cement Limited,ANKITA VISHAL SHAH,BUY,253167,34.26,-
07-FEB-2008,BURNPUR,Burnpur Cement Limited,SETU SECURITIES PVT.LTD.,BUY,247225,35.05,-
07-FEB-2008,HORIZONBAT,HORIZON BATTERY TECH. LTD,MERRILL LYNCH CAPITAL MARKETS ESPANA S.A. SVB,BUY,250000,300.00,-
07-FEB-2008,MONNETISPA,Monnet Ispat Ltd,MAVI INVESTMENT FUND LTD,BUY,293036,489.97,-
07-FEB-2008,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD,BUY,3141067,52.60,-
07-FEB-2008,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,BUY,2428644,52.59,-
07-FEB-2008,NAHARINDUS,Nahar Industrial Enterpri,ANUJ NAGPAL,BUY,200000,98.00,-
07-FEB-2008,NAHARINDUS,Nahar Industrial Enterpri,Vinamra Universal Traders Pvt.Ltd.,BUY,255000,98.10,-
07-FEB-2008,QUINTEGRA,Quintegra Solutions Ltd,STUPENDORS TRADERS PVT LTD,BUY,135000,155.00,-
07-FEB-2008,WANBURY,Wanbury Limited,SHASHIKANT BHAI PATEL,BUY,10000,132.00,-
07-FEB-2008,WANBURY,Wanbury Limited,ZATCO VYAPAAR PVT LTD,BUY,106800,132.00,-
07-FEB-2008,BURNPUR,Burnpur Cement Limited,ANKITA VISHAL SHAH,SELL,223167,34.70,-
07-FEB-2008,BURNPUR,Burnpur Cement Limited,SETU SECURITIES PVT.LTD.,SELL,247220,34.74,-
07-FEB-2008,HORIZONBAT,HORIZON BATTERY TECH. LTD,KROSSLINK INFRASTRUCTURE LTD,SELL,250700,300.08,-
07-FEB-2008,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,CLEAN FINANCE & INVESTMENT LTD,SELL,3141067,52.64,-
07-FEB-2008,NAGARFERT,Nagarjuna Fert & Chem,TRANSGLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.,SELL,2481244,52.78,-
07-FEB-2008,NAHARINDUS,Nahar Industrial Enterpri,ANUJ NAGPAL,SELL,200000,98.10,-
07-FEB-2008,NAHARINDUS,Nahar Industrial Enterpri,CITI GROUP GLOBAL MKT.MAURITIUS PVT.LTD.,SELL,337954,98.05,-
07-FEB-2008,QUINTEGRA,Quintegra Solutions Ltd,SUDHIR JAIN,SELL,135000,155.00,-
07-FEB-2008,WANBURY,Wanbury Limited,SHASHIKANT BHAI PATEL,SELL,110000,132.00,-
07-FEB-2008,WANBURY,Wanbury Limited,ZATCO VYAPAAR PVT LTD,SELL,9603,136.03,-

BSE Bulk Deals to Watch - Feb 7 2008

Deal Date Scrip Code Scrip Name Client Name Deal Type * Quantity Price **
7/2/2008 504629 ANIL SP STEL SHEETAL RAJESH JAIN B 50000 24.15
7/2/2008 504629 ANIL SP STEL SAINATH HERBAL CARE MARKETING P LTD B 100000 24.20
7/2/2008 505506 AXON INFOTEC ANMOL FINANCE COMPANY B 9000 58.50
7/2/2008 505506 AXON INFOTEC CHIRAG SECURITIES B 9000 58.50
7/2/2008 505506 AXON INFOTEC HETAL DHIREK RAJ B 9606 57.00
7/2/2008 505506 AXON INFOTEC SATYAM DWIREK RAJ S 9606 57.00
7/2/2008 500035 BALAJI DISTL JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 293342 40.58
7/2/2008 500035 BALAJI DISTL JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 294599 40.61
7/2/2008 512332 BIRLA CAP AYODHYAPATI INVESTMENT PVT. LTD. S 123599 14.22
7/2/2008 532931 BURNPUR JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. B 333950 35.05
7/2/2008 532931 BURNPUR JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 321438 34.77
7/2/2008 531682 CAT TECHNOL SARFARAZKHAN SARVARKHAN PATHAN B 717890 10.02
7/2/2008 531682 CAT TECHNOL JMP SECURITIES PVT. LTD. S 160000 10.06
7/2/2008 531682 CAT TECHNOL SARFARAZKHAN SARVARKHAN PATHAN S 777835 10.01
7/2/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF SARFARAZKHAN SARVARKHAN PATHAN B 1297452 11.02
7/2/2008 532271 CYBERMAT INF SARFARAZKHAN SARVARKHAN PATHAN S 1297452 11.02
7/2/2008 517973 DMC INTER J A FINANCIAL AND MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS PVT LTD B 25900 27.01
7/2/2008 531913 GOPAL IRON INTERFACE CAPITAL MKT PVT LTD S 64300 12.63
7/2/2008 531913 GOPAL IRON HIMAL K PARIKH HUF S 30000 12.63
7/2/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN PRIME BROKING CO. INDIA LTD AC PWM B 60000 171.00
7/2/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN PRAMODA H.SHAH S 33750 171.41
7/2/2008 508918 GREYCELLS EN TANIVIN TRADE FIN PRIVATE LTD. S 32900 170.01
7/2/2008 511682 IFL PRMOTER HITECH COMPUTECH PRIVATE LTD S 16700 40.52
7/2/2008 507794 KHAIT CHEM F SHRADHA PROJECT LTD S 56025 83.83
7/2/2008 512413 KHAITAN WVG VINAY SUDERSHAN GUPTA B 10000 64.68
7/2/2008 512413 KHAITAN WVG HARVARD TRADING PVT. LTD. S 4000 62.94
7/2/2008 519136 NAHAR INDUST CITIGROUP GLOBAL MARKETS MAURITIUS PVT LTD S 338717 98.03
7/2/2008 590074 ORTINLABS LEPID SECURITIES PVT. LTD B 18910 18.52
7/2/2008 590074 ORTINLABS TURNKEY DEALERS PVT. LTD S 18910 18.48
7/2/2008 502563 SH BHAW PA M SUDHIR TANDON B 21699 11.25
7/2/2008 502563 SH BHAW PA M SUDHIR TANDON HUF S 21699 11.25
7/2/2008 524336 SH HARI CH E BHANU JAYANTILAL B 50881 45.01
7/2/2008 500389 SILVERLINE T BSMA LIMITED AC DR S 235000 57.00
7/2/2008 509992 U B ENGINEER DEUTSCHE SECURITIES MAURITIES LIMITED B 68700 134.99
7/2/2008 524212 WANBURY LTD SHASHIKANT A PATEL S 110000 132.00
7/2/2008 511246 WHITE LION A MAHESH RAMANLAL SHAH S 21200 10.36

Deepak Fertilizers

Deepak Fertilizers