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Sharekhan - Stock Idea

Bajaj Auto
Cluster: Apple Green
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs2,380
Current market price: Rs1,873

Free-wheeling on auto and insurance

Key points

• The growing affordability of two-wheelers due to the rising per capita income of Indians as well as the low cost and easy means of obtaining finances have resulted in a high double-digit growth in two-wheeler sales over the last four years.
• A stronger demand from the rural areas owing to a good monsoon and the resulting good kharif and rabi crops would further boost the underlying growth trend mentioned above.
  w With its recently launched two-wheeler models Bajaj Auto Ltd (BAL) is best placed to meet the growing demand for two-wheelers. We expect its revenues to grow at a compounded growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6% over FY2005-07E.
• The gaining acceptance of the higher-end models and the softening of the raw material prices are expected to expand BAL's operating profit margin by 60 basis points, leading to a compounded annual growth of 25% in its operating profit over FY2005-07E.
• Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance (BALI), BAL's life insurance subsidiary, is the largest private sector insurance company in India and should add significantly to BAL's value. We estimate the value of BALI to be Rs482 per share of BAL.
• At the current market price of Rs1,873, the stock is quoting at 9.7x its FY2007E core earnings per share (EPS) and 10.0x its FY2007E EV/EBIDTA. Taking into account BALI's value (Rs482 per share) and that of its investments (Rs615 per share) we recommend a Buy on BAL with a price target of Rs2,380 based on the sum-of-parts valuation method.

Bombay Rayons - IPO

Lacks shine

Current scale of operations too small to justify price

Bombay Rayon Fashions (BRFL) manufactures woven fabrics and readymade garments (mainly men’s shirts). The company’s 140 weaving machines are spread at three locations -- village Sonale in Thane district, Navi Mumbai and Silvassa -- producing approximately 10.9 million meters of fabric per annum. Two facilities in Bangalore produce around 6,000 garments per day.

BRFL is setting up an integrated yarn dyeing, weaving, processing and garment manufacturing facility at the apparel park being developed by the Karnataka Industrial Area Development Board (KIADB) in Doddballapur near Bangalore. The Rs 161.72-crore project includes Rs 17.42 crore for working capital. The company is raising Rs 101.72 crore through a rupee term loan under the Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme (TUFS), with 5% interest subsidy. The balance is to be raised through the present IPO.

Post- expansion, BRFL will add two new divisions -- yarn dyeing and processing -- apart from expanding its capacity in weaving and garment manufacturing. The yarn dyeing division’s capacity will be 2,000 kg per day, and the processing division’s 93,999 metres per day. The weaving capacity is to be increased by 48 machines to 198. The garment capacity will go up more than four times to 28,000 pieces per day.

The prospectus also mentions that, along with other intermittent expansions, the garment capacity will increase 10 times to 60,000 pieces per day by April 2006.

Strengths

• The abolition of the quota regime has opened new growth avenues for export-oriented garment companies such as BRFL.

• Besides expanding garment-manufacturing capacity, product portfolio is to be diversified to include ladies tops, kids wear, and bottoms for men and women.

Weaknesses

• The post-quota regime has lead to an increase in competition. This could affect the profit margin, going forward.
• Considering the current status, the expansion of capacity is unlikely to be completed and commissioned by March 2006.
• The project size and scope is larger than the current scale of operations.

Valuation

In FY 2005, BRFL reported a profit of Rs 7.26 crore with an EPS of Rs 1.5 on diluted equity. The P/E ratio stands 40 times the lower end of the offer price (Rs 60) and 47 times the higher end (Rs 70). On the other hand, Gokaldas Exports and SPL Industries, much better placed than BRFL, are trading at a P/E of 19 and 17 times, respectively.

The first quarter results of FY 2006 give an annualised EPS of Rs 3.9. Notably, the company merged two partnership firms with it on 1 March 2005, boosting the results. Considering this EPS, P/E will be 15 to 18 times. On the same basis, P/E on an annualised EPS of Gokaldas Exports and SPL Industries is 15 and 14 times, respectively.

Piramyd Retail - IPO

No profit, but high price

This small player wants to finance its big expansion plans in the booming retail industry by an IPO at a stiff price

Piramyd Retail, part of the Piramal group, is one of India's pioneers in organised retailing. Incorporated on March 18 2005 by taking over the business of Piramyd Retail and Merchandising and Crossroads Shoppertainment, the company is in two segments: Lifestyle retailing and Food, Home and Personal Care (FHPC) retailing.

The offerings of the lifestyle retailing arm, Piramyd Megastore, include apparel and accessories like jewellery, watches, footwear and home textiles, and are targeted at the informed and fashion conscious customer. The FHPC business, TruMart, caters to bulk buying and top-up requirements of retail customers.

By 2008, Piramyd Retail plans to increase its presence in five cities through five megastores to 17 and eight TrueMart stores to 69. A capex of Rs 118.79 crore will go to add eight megastores occupying around 5,02,000 square feet by FY 2007 as well as 13 TruMart supermarkets by FY 2006 and another 24 by FY2007. The TruMart supermarkets would occupy around 1,78,000 square feet. Upgradation of IT will cost the company Rs 6 crore. The company will repay a bridge loan of Rs 30 crore and meet issue expenses of Rs 7.24 crore. The total requirement of funds is around Rs 214.91 crore, of which Rs 162 crore will be met through this issue.

Strengths

• Of the 90 lakh shares on offer, promoters will subscribe 40 lakh shares (nearly 45% of the issue) at the issue price, depicting their confidence in the company.
• Retail is a very fast growing industry.

Weaknesses

• Additional capital resources to meet expansion plans will involve equity financing, further diluting shareholding.

• Private labels, a high margin business, contribute just 7% of the revenue as against 20% for Shoppers’ Stop.

• Reliance on a single distribution center in the western region means that any unforeseen region-specific event will bring business operations to a standstill.

• The relatively small player’s sales were just Rs 53.6 crore in FY 2005 against Rs 419 crore of Shoppers’ Stop and over Rs 1084 crore of Pantaloon Retail.

• Lifestyle category is highly sensitive to overall economic conditions.

• The rise in interest rates will increase real estate rentals, which is detrimental to the company’s growth plans as its business model will have to be focused on urban areas.

• Competition, particularly in lifestyle category, will increase when the government permits FDI in retail.

• Oversupply can arise much faster than expected due to the pace at which malls are being set up across cities.

Valuation

Piramyd Retail has been making losses since the past few years. It is relatively a very small player in the organised retail market. Also, the growth in turnover is very modest compared to listed peers. Though there is market fancy for organised retail players, the company is yet to deliver results. Yet, it has come out with an issue at a hefty premium (price band: Rs 120 to Rs 140). Recently, it privately placed equity at Rs 180. The only consolation is that promoters will be subscribing to 45% of the current IPO at the issue price.

Motilal Oswal - Alok Industries

Recommends Neutral On Alok Industries @ 65 With Target Price 72

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Motilal Oswal Research Log

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Motilal Oswal - NTPC

Recommends Neutral On NTPC @ 94 With Target Price 107

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Motilal Oswal - SAIL

Recommends Neutral On SAIL @ 48

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Motilal Oswal - Gokaldas Exports

Recommends Buy On Gokaldas Exports @ 516 With Target Price 635

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Motilal Oswal - Reliance Industries

Recommends Buy On Reliance Industries @ 751 With Target Price 903

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Business Today - Top 20 Companies

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Banking RBI Credit Policy

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Prithvi Information Solutions - IPO

Focus on onsite work

Onsite work in the US contributes 90% of revenue and most of the software professionals are not its employees

Hyderabad-based Prithvi Information Solutions provides IT solutions to various industry verticals including technology, health care, manufacturing, BFSI, telecom, and e-governance, and services like application development, package implementation, re-engineering and maintenance.

The bulk of the customers are based in the US.

Promoted by US-based Ms V Madhavi and India-based V Satish Kumar in 1998, Prithvi Information Solutions has offices in the US, Canada, United Kingdom, and Singapore.

The proceeds of the current IPO will be utilised to set up an offshore delivery centre in Hyderabad at an estimated cost of Rs 91 crore and to meet the working capital requirement of Rs 49 crore and towards issue expenses of Rs 10 crore.

Strengths:

• Prithvi Information Solutions has a balanced business mix, with no significant dependence on any single client. The largest client of the company contributes just 4% of the revenue. The Top 5 and top 10 clients contribute around 16% and 28% of the total revenue .At the end of FY 2005, the company had 55 active clients.

• The top line has risen steadily at a CAGR of around 63% in the last five years, from Rs 26.53 crore in FY 2001 to Rs 305.12 crore in FY 2005. The bottom line has shown a CAGR of 29% to Rs28.85 crore, between FY 2001 to FY 2005.

Weakness:

• Unlike most other Indian IT companies, Prithvi Information Solutions generates around 90% of its revenue from onsite. Though the revenue per capita is higher onsite, so is the expense. As a result, the company's operating profit margin (OPM), at 9.5% in FY 2005, is less than half of the industry composite average of 23.1%

• Peculiarly, the company procures most of its manpower through vendor agreements. Thus, the people working on the company's projects are not its employees. As it does not have any long-term contract with such vendors, any disruption in service can have an adverse effect on the operational and financial performance.

• Currently, the US market contributes 90% of the revenue, which is a geographical risk.

• The company does not have any forward contract or hedging tools to combat the impact of currency fluctuation. Any unfavorable movement in the US dollar will put its financials under pressure as more than 90% of the revenue is billed in the US dollar.

Valuation:

In the last five year between FY 2001 to FY 2005, Prithvi Information Solutions's top line has grown at a decent pace, from Rs 26.53 crore in FY 2001 to Rs 305.12 crore in FY 2005. However, in the same period, the bottom line has not grown in the same pace on higher mix of onsite work in the total revenue, which reflects in OPM as well as the net profit margin (NPM), which have fallen drastically in the last five years. In FY 2001, OPM and NPM were around 30.6% and 30.2%, which came down to 9.5% and 9.4%, respectively, in FY 2005.

The offer price band of Rs 250-270 discounts FY 2005 EPS on post-issue equity by 15.7 to 17 times, which does not leave any scope for appreciation. However, in the quarter ended June 2005, the revenue stood at Rs 98.22 crore and net profit was Rs 10.24 crore, with OPM and NPM of 11% and 10.4%, respectively. The annualised first quarter EPS on post-issue equity works out to Rs 22.7.The offer price band of Rs 250-270 discounts this 11 to 12 times. The company has reversed the falling trend in OPM in the June 2005 quarter, just ahead of the IPO. It is necessary for it to sustain this uptrend, going forward, for continued investor interest in the scrip, post-listing