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Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Grey Market Premiums - Apr 6 2010
| Company Name | Offer Price (Rs.) | Premium (Rs.) |
| Persistent Sys. | 310 | 80 to 90 |
| Shree Ganesh Jewellery | 260 | Discount |
| Infrasoft Technology | 145 | 12 to 15 |
| Goenka Diamond & Jewellery | 135 | Discount |
Indian indices to extend gains
Headlines for the day:
Green nod sought for projects worth Rs60,000 cr
Air India board to discuss international base plan
Biocon buys out Cuban firm in JV, hopes to break even in 5 yrs
Events for the day:
Major corporate action
Ex-date for dividend of Wyeth
Ex-date for interim dividend of Arss Infrastructure Projects
For more events, log on to Sharekhan.com
Listing of equity shares of Persistent Systems Ltd
Results: GM Breweries
Pre-market report
Global signals
The European markets will resume today after a long weekend, as it was closed on Friday and Monday.
The US stocks rose on Monday, the first trading day on the Wall Street after government data last week showed the economy added the largest number of jobs in three years, boosting hopes the recovery was accelerating.
In today's trade, the Asian markets were trading on a mixed note. At the time of writing this report, SGX Nifty was trading 22 point higher. The Hang Seng is closed today i.e. April 6, 2010.
Indian markets
After the yesterday's rally in the US markets and the positive signals that are coming from the global markets, the Indian stocks are likely to open higher. For Nifty, 5400 and for Sensex, 18000 are the psychological levels. As the investors have pushed the Indian shares and the rupee to multi-month highs expecting a sustained earnings and economic growth, if the FIIs flow continues the market may extend more gains.
Commodity cues
In the commodity space, the crude oil prices posted gains, with the Nymex light crude oil for the May series advanced by $1.75 per barrel, whereas in the metals space, the Comex Gold for the May series rose by $7.80 and the Comex Silver for the May series was up by $0.29 to a troy ounce respectively.
Daily trend of FII/MF investment in equities
On April 05, 2010, FIIs were the net buyers of the Indian stocks to the tune of Rs1484.20 crore, whereas the domestic mutual funds, on March 30, 2010, were the net sellers of the stocks to the tune of Rs100.20 crore.
Precious metals add more glaze
Precious metals continue to stay bright on the second day of second quarter
Precious metal prices ended higher on Monday, 05 April 2010. Prices rose as the dollar weakened. Prices also rose along with crude prices on anticipation of higher demand in coming months, which arose following better than expected economic reports.
Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.
On Monday, gold for June delivery ended at $1,133.8 an ounce, higher by $7.7 (0.7%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold ended higher by 1.8%. In FY 2010, gold touched a high of $1,154 in January. For the month of March, gold slid 0.4%. For the first quarter of this year, gold rose by 1.7%, its sixth quarterly rise. On a year to date basis, gold is higher by 3.4%.
On Monday, May Comex silver futures ended higher by 23 cents (1.3%) at $18.11 an ounce. For the month of March, silver ended higher by 5%. For the first quarter of this year, silver rose by 3%. On a year to date basis, silver is higher by 6.4%.
In the currency market on Monday, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against basket of six other currencies slipped by 0.2%. The dollar index gained about 0.7% in March and rallied 4% during the first quarter.
Among economic reports scheduled on Monday, The National Association of Realtors in US reported on Monday, 05 April 2010 that there was a seasonally adjusted 8.2% increase in its pending home sales index in February. The NAR's index tracks sales contracts on existing homes, and is seen to be a good indicator of actual sales, which are recorded a month or two later at closing.
Among other economic data, The Institute for Supply Management in US reported on Monday, 05 April 2010 that the ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 55.4% from 53.0% in February. The gain was stronger than expected. Market was expecting the index to rise to 54%. The report indicated that activity in the service sector of the U.S. economy improved markedly in March, indicating that the recovery is broadening out.
Gold had ended FY 2009 higher by 24%. Silver futures had ended 2009 up 50%. The dollar index had lost 4.2% against its counterparts last year.
Last year, after hitting a low at $807.30 per ounce on 15 January 2009, gold futures rallied almost 51% to hit an all-time high at $1217.40 per ounce during early December of 2009 but fell from those levels at the end. Silver futures had hit a low at $10.42 on 15 January 2009 and hit a high at $19.30 per ounce on 2 December 2009. Like gold, silver also ended lower than its all time high level.
At the MCX, gold prices for June delivery closed lower by Rs 57 (0.34%) at Rs 16,502 per ten grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 16,572 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 16,437 per 10 grams during the day's trading.
At the MCX, silver prices for May delivery closed Rs 4 (0.01%) lower at Rs 27,417/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 27,450/kg and fell to a low of Rs 27,216/Kg during the day's trading.
Crude shoots up
Crude continues its upward journey on demand hopes
Crude oil prices ended substantially higher on Monday, 05 April 2010. Prices rose on anticipation of higher demand in coming months, which arose following positive economic reports since the past couple of days at Wall Street.
On Monday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for May delivery closed at $86.62/barrel (higher by $1.75 or 2%). During intra day trading, it surpassed the $87 mark. For the month of March, crude rose 5.1%. For the first quarter of this year, crude rose by 5.5%. Year to date, crude is higher by 8.8%.
Prices are still very much lower as compared to 3 July, 2008 settlement of $145.29 a barrel and an intraday high of $147.27 on 11 July, 2008, an all-time high. But oil has also gained nearly 156% from a December, 2008 nadir. That day prices settled at $33.87 a barrel following an intraday low of $32.40.
In the currency market on Monday, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against basket of six other currencies slipped by 0.2%. The dollar index gained about 0.7% in March and rallied 4% during the first quarter.
Among economic reports scheduled on Monday, The National Association of Realtors in US reported on Monday, 05 April 2010 that there was a seasonally adjusted 8.2% increase in its pending home sales index in February. The NAR's index tracks sales contracts on existing homes, and is seen to be a good indicator of actual sales, which are recorded a month or two later at closing.
Among other economic data, The Institute for Supply Management in US reported on Monday, 05 April 2010 that the ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 55.4% from 53.0% in February. The gain was stronger than expected. Market was expecting the index to rise to 54%. The report indicated that activity in the service sector of the U.S. economy improved markedly in March, indicating that the recovery is broadening out.
The Labor Department in US reported on Friday, 02 April 2010 that the U.S. economy created 162,000 jobs in March 2010. It was the largest seasonally adjusted increase in nonfarm payrolls in three years. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. The report detailed that nonfarm payrolls rose for just the third time in the past 27 months.
Elsewhere, natural gas futures advanced for a second day in New York on speculation demand for the industrial fuel will strengthen as the economic recovery gains momentum. Natural gas for May delivery gained 19.1 cents (4.7%) to settle at $4.277 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have dropped 23% this year.
Crude ended FY 2009 higher by 78%, the highest yearly gain since 1999. It reached a high of $82 earlier in October 2009 and hit a low of $33.98 on 12 February 2009. Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.
At the MCX, crude oil for April delivery closed higher by Rs 13(0.33%) at Rs 3,843/barrel. Natural gas for April delivery closed at Rs 191/mmbtu, higher by Rs 5 (2.7%)
Copper stays strong
Base metal prices go up riding on the back of strong economic data
Red metal prices ended higher on Monday, 05 April 2010. Prices rose as the dollar weakened. Prices also rose along with other commodities on anticipation of higher demand in coming months, which arose following better than expected economic reports.
At USA, copper futures for May delivery ended higher by 5 cents (1.3%) at $3.63 a pound. Prices gained 5.3% last week. In March, copper gained 7.5%. Copper gained about 6% for the first quarter, buoyed by data from the U.S. and other countries reinforced expectations that the global economic recovery was on track. On a year to date basis, in 2010, copper is higher by 8%.
Prices have almost doubled in the past twelve months due to higher imports from China. Copper ended FY 2009 higher by 140%.
On Monday, at LME, copper for delivery in three months ended higher by $93 (1.2%) at $7,978. On 3 July, 2008, prices had touched an all time intra day high of $8,940.
In the currency market on Monday, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against basket of six other currencies slipped by 0.2%. The dollar index gained about 0.7% in March and rallied 4% during the first quarter.
Among economic reports scheduled on Monday, The National Association of Realtors in US reported on Monday, 05 April 2010 that there was a seasonally adjusted 8.2% increase in its pending home sales index in February. The NAR's index tracks sales contracts on existing homes, and is seen to be a good indicator of actual sales, which are recorded a month or two later at closing.
Among other economic data, The Institute for Supply Management in US reported on Monday, 05 April 2010 that the ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 55.4% from 53.0% in February. The gain was stronger than expected. Market was expecting the index to rise to 54%. The report indicated that activity in the service sector of the U.S. economy improved markedly in March, indicating that the recovery is broadening out.
The Labor Department in US reported on Friday, 02 April 2010 that the U.S. economy created 162,000 jobs in March 2010. It was the largest seasonally adjusted increase in nonfarm payrolls in three years. The unemployment rate was steady at 9.7%. The report detailed that nonfarm payrolls rose for just the third time in the past 27 months.
As per latest data, copper stockpiles at LME fell by 7% till date from its February 2010 high levels.
Copper ended substantially higher last year on expectations of revived global economic growth along with a decline in the dollar. The dollar index had dropped almost 4.2% last year. The metal was also pushed higher by record first-half imports to China, the world's largest user.
The U.S. buys about 13% of the 17 million metric tons of copper sold annually and China buys about 20%.
At the MCX, copper for February delivery closed lower by Rs 0.4 (0.11%) at Rs 355.3/Kg. Prices rose to a high of Rs 358.1/Kg and fell to a low of Rs 352.8/Kg during the day's trading.
Among other metals traded in the LME on Monday, lead ended 0.7% higher at $2,225 a ton and zinc ended 0.5% higher at $2,414 a ton. Nickel was little changed at $25,075. Aluminum ended 0.3% higher at $2,358 a ton.
Market may extend gains on positive global cues
The market is likely to extend gains for the third straight trading session supported by positive global cues. The S&P CNX Nifty futures for April 2010 expiry were up 15 points in Singapore.
Stock-specific action may rule the roost in the near term based on expectations of Q4 March 2010 results. IT bellwether Infosys kickstarts the reporting season on 13 April 2010.
Shares of export oriented companies may falter as the Indian rupee strengthened to a 19-month peak on Monday. The partially convertible rupee ended at 44.44/45 per dollar, more than 1% stronger than Wednesday's close at 44.89/90. It touched an intraday peak of 44.43, its strongest since 8 September 2008.
Steel stocks may be in demand on reports the recent price hike announced by steel producers is not the final one for April, as the industry is expecting another Rs 1,000-per tonne increase by the end of this month.
Shares of IT firm Persistent Systems (India) will debut on the bourses today, 6 April 2010. The company had priced its initial public offer at the upper end of the Rs 290 - 310 per share price band.
Most Asian stocks rose today as commodity prices gained and growth in US service industries and home sales spurred optimism about the global economic recovery. Key benchmark indices in China, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan were up by between 0.26% to 1.06%. However, South Korea's Seoul Composite was down marginally by 0.10%.
US markets ended higher on Monday, 5 April 2010, as they reacted to the non-farm payrolls report and other positive economic data. The Dow Jones and S&P closed at their highest level since September 2008, while Nasdaq closed at its highest level since August 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 46.48 points to 10,973.55. The Nasdaq composite index gained 26.95 points to 2,429.53 while the S&P 500 index moved 9.34 points higher to 1,187.44.
Emerging market equity funds ended March 2010 with their seventh consecutive week of inflows, bringing net inflows to nearly $7.6 billion in the first quarter. All four of the major fund groups took in modest amounts of fresh money, ranging from a net $6 million for Latin America Equity Funds to $222 million for EMEA Equity Funds. China equity funds, however, recorded inflows for only the third week so far this year as some investors continue to be put off by rich valuations, growing exchange rate and trade frictions with the United States and uncertainty about just how far authorities will go to prevent a property bubble.
The world economy could grow 4.1% this year, 0.2 points more than previously forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in the latest draft of its World Economic Outlook. The US economy is now expected to grow 3% this year, instead of the 2.7% forecast in the IMF's January report. The IMF is due to publish its next World Economic Outlook on 21 April 2010.
According to the draft, euro zone growth this year is now forecast to be 0.8%, down 0.1 points from January's estimate. In 2011, the figure is seen at 1.5%, also down 0.1 points from a previous estimate, the report said.
Closer home, the stock market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) on Monday notified amendments to the equity listing agreement, which were decided at its November 2009 board meeting. According to these amendments, all listed companies are required to disclose their audited annual results on a standalone as well as on a consolidated basis within 60 days from the end of the financial year. Earlier it was 90 days. This in effect, means all listed companies will have to submit the recently-concluded financial year's results by 31 May 2010 itself.
Listed companies have been further asked to publish the turnover, profit before tax and profit after tax on a stand-alone basis. These measures have been taken to streamline the submission of financial results by listed entities and uniformity in reporting, while reducing the timeline for submission of the same with the stock exchanges.
Top banking executives on Monday told the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that credit growth will be over 20% in the year ending March 2011 (FY 2011) and that they don't expect interest rates to go up soon. They don't feel there is any upward pressure on interest rates. Some bank chiefs met RBI Governor D. Subbarao ahead of the annual monetary policy scheduled for 20 April 2010 to discuss on issues including outlook on credit, deposit growth, lending rates, economic growth and inflation.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee recently said the economy would soon return to the 9% growth trajectory, helped by various measures announced in the Union Budget 2010-11. He said the economy would post 8.25-8.75% growth in the current fiscal after recording 7.2% growth in 2009-10, which is impressive by global standards.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently said that the economy would get back to 9% growth by the end of the Eleventh Five Year Plan period, and do even better after that. After clocking 9% plus growth for three straight years till 2007-08, the country's GDP grew by a relatively modest rate of 6.7% in 2008-09 on account of the international financial crisis.
The food price index rose 16.35% in the year to 20 March 2010, higher than an annual rise of 16.22% in the previous week, government data showed on Thursday. The fuel price index rose 12.75%, higher than an annual rise of 12.68% in the previous week. Fuel costs have risen following a hike in domestic fuel prices and an upswing in world crude prices. The primary articles index was up 13.86% in the year to 20 March 2010.
India's manufacturing growth slowed down in March 2010, dropping from a 20-month-record in February 2010, as mounting cost pressures took a toll on expansion in output, a survey released on Thursday showed. The HSBC Markit Purchasing Managers' Index , based on a survey of 500 companies, fell to 57.8 in March 2010 from 58.5 in February 2010, which was the strongest since June 2008. A reading above 50 means activity is expanding. The new orders index fell to 62.7 in March from 64 in February
Industrial output in February is expected to have grown 16% year-on-year, Industry Secretary said on Wednesday. The output in January grew an annual 16.7%.
Foreign direct investment rose 15.4% to $1.72 billion in February 2010 over February 2009, government said Wednesday.
Exports in February grew 34.8% on year to $16.09 billion, Trade Minister Anand Sharma said on Wednesday. Exports are expected to grow 15-20% in the year that starts on 1 April 2010, Sharma said. Imports, too, maintained momentum growing by 66% to $25 billion underscoring the strong revival in the domestic economy.
The BSE Sensex vaulted 7,819.27 points or 80.5% in the year ended March 2010 (FY 2010) helped by heavy purchases by foreign institutional investors. As per data from the stock exchanges, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) bought stocks worth a net Rs 14,792.31 crore in March 2010. Indian companied raised over Rs 47,800 crore through public offers during the fiscal 2009-2010, following buoyant secondary market.
Global credit rating agency Standard & Poor's, last month, revised the outlook on India to stable from negative due to improved government finances.
The forecast for the southwest monsoon for 2010 is the next major trigger for the market. Good rains this year after last year's drought will boost farm output and rural incomes. But another monsoon failure will add to inflationary pressure which in turn may hamper the current strong economic rebound. The June-September monsoon season is important for India as about 60% of the country's farmlands are rain-fed and more than half of the workforce is employed in the agriculture sector.
Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change has predicted normal monsoon rains in India for the current year. Agriculture secretary P K Basu said in a media interview on Monday, 5 April 2010, that early signs indicate normal monsoon rains this year. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issues a monsoon forecast, usually in the second half of April after considering weather observations in different parts of the world and extrapolating statistical data.
A weakening El Nino is a positive sign for the monsoon, Ajit Tyagi, director general at the India Meteorological Department, said on 18 March 2010. The cyclical heating of the Pacific Ocean known as El Nino will continue to fade, US forecasters said last month. The weather event, which occurs every four to seven years, brings more rain to South America and less precipitation to Asia.
The key benchmark indices attained their highest closing level in more than 25 months on Monday, 5 April 2010 aided by firm Asian stocks and higher US index futures. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 243.06 points or 1.37% to 17,935.68, its highest closing since 19 February 2008. The S&P CNX Nifty rose 77.90 points or 1.47% to 5,368.40 its highest closing since 5 February 2008.
Foreign funds bought shares worth Rs 766.07 crore and domestic funds bought shares worth Rs 403.33 crore on Monday, 5 April 2010, as per provisional data.
Monday, April 05, 2010
Sensex eyes 18000
Today's major news
Mute debut for Pradip Overseas, the stock closes 2.59% lower on its issue price
Forex kitty falls $1.15 billion to $277 billion
February exports surge 35% to $16 billion
Click here for more stories
Global signals
European markets were closed today and will re-open on Tuesday.
All the major Asian indices closed in the positive territory on Monday and Nikkei closed at its 18-month high level. Hang Seng & Shanghai Compsite were closed today. SGX Nifty closed 55 points higher.
US stock futures point to a higher start for the Wall Street on stronger March jobs data.
Indian indices
Taking lead from the strong global indices, Indian markets continue its winning streak on second straight session on Monday to test its 25-month high level.
Sensex opened merely a point higher (at 17694) and moved up on strong US jobs data, pointing to global economic recovery taking hold, and good auto sales numbers and encouraging export figures for February back home. Sensex spurted to its 25-month high of 17949 and Nifty also to its 25-month high of 5378. At closing bell, Sensex quoted at 17936, 243 points higher and Nifty 78 points higher at 5368.
Market sentiment
Advancing shares far outnumbered declining shares by 3:1. Of the 2,920 stocks traded on the BSE, 2,222 stocks advanced, whereas 640 stocks declined. Fifty eight stocks remained unchanged.
Sectoral & stock screening
BSE information technology (IT) was the only counter to trade lower. The rest of the 12 sectors were high with BSE Realty leading the chart with gain of 2.66%, followed by BSE Oil & Gas that was up 2.03% and BSE Auto that rose 2.00%.
The top three gaining stocks were — Allahabad Bank (up by 6.63%), Marico (up by 6.43%) and Andhra Bank (up by 6.31%).
The top three losing stocks were — Procter & Gamble (down by 4.85%), Bharat Electronics (down by 4.20%) and HPCL (down by 2.02%).
Viewing volumes
Steel maker Ispat Industries was the most actively traded share with over 0.70 crore shares changing hands on the BSE, followed by India’s second largest realty major Unitech (0.39 crore shares), Reliance group’s Reliance Natural Resources (0.35 crore shares), sugar major Shree Renuka Sugars (0.28 crore shares) and wind turbine maker Suzlon Energy (0.22 crore shares).
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