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Thursday, March 25, 2010

Problematic start on F&O day


It is so much easier to suggest solutions when you don't know too much about the problem – Malcolm Forbes.

As if the Greece issue wasn’t enough, the markets now have to worry about deteriorating fiscal health of other places of historical interest. Fitch has lowered Portugal's sovereign credit rating, citing its growing budget deficit and debt load. The euro fell to new record low versus Swiss franc and fresh 10-month trough against the US dollar.

Increasing worries about the European sovereign debt situation curbed risk appetite even as suspense continues on Greece getting aid from the EU. The commodity complex was down due to a stronger dollar. Markets in Europe came off session highs to end mostly flat while US stocks finished lower. In Asia, markets in Japan and Korea are slightly in the green while the rest are in the red.

We expect a shaky start given the weak global cues. Trading will be volatile and rangebound owing to the F&O expiry. Near-term uncertainties, especially on the external front, could continue to act as a dampener though the overall bias remains positive for India. The Nifty will trade between 5200 and 5300. Bharti will be in focus as Zain board has cleared the multi-billion dollar deal.

FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Tuesday at Rs3.59bn on a provisional basis. Local funds were net sellers of Rs733.9mn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs3.91bn. On Monday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs2.7bn in the cash segment, as per the SEBI web site. Mutual Funds were net sellers of Rs3.59bn on the same day.

The BSE Sensex snapped a four day winning streak on Monday after the RBI in a surprising move increased interest rates for first time in almost two years after inflation rate rose to 16-months high. The benchmark indices did show some resilience after a gap down opening, however as the day progressed, markets were unable to carry its upswing and finally lost ground. Realty, Auto and banking stocks were among the top losers.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries was the major laggards, the stock single handedly dragged the BSE Sensex 34 points followed by ICICI Bank 28 points and HDFC 22 points.

Market breadth was weak as well, out of total 2919 stocks, 1,853 declined against 988 advances while 78 stocks remained unchanged.

Finally, the BSE Sensex slipped 168 points to end at 17,411 and NSE Nifty fell 58 points to close at 5,205.

In Asia, the Nikkei in Japan was closed, while Australia's S&P/ASX slipped by 0.9%. Shanghai SE Composite fell by 0.2% and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was down 2%.

In Europe, stocks were trading with a negative bias. The DAX in Germany was down 0.7%, the CAC 40 index in France was down 0.9% and the FTSE in the UK was down 0.8%.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the BSE Pharma index was only gainer, the index marginally added 0.2%. Among the top losers were, BSE Realty index was down 4% and the BSE Metal index was down 2.2%. The BSE Mid-Cap index ended lower by 1.2% while BSE Small-Cap index declined 0.8%.

Outside the frontline indices, the big losers in the broader market were Indiabulls Real Estate, GMDC, Jai Corp and Bharat Forge. On the other hand, gainers included M&M Finance, Max India, India Cement and Voltas.

The BSE announced that it will include Cipla in the Sensitive index from May 3 replacing Sun Pharmaceutical on the index. Shares of Cipla ended flat at Rs333, while Shares of Sun Pharma ended flat at Rs1702.

Shares of Bharti Airtel gained by 1.5% to end at Rs316 after reports stated that the company has finalised US$8.5bn of funding for its acquisition of the African assets of Kuwait’s Zain. In addition, the company is also likely to foray into 3G, telecom services in India. A consortium of banks led by Standard Chartered and Barclays would lend it US$7.5bn and SBI another US$1bn, reports added.

Shares of Lupin have new 52-week high of Rs1643 gaining 2% after the company announced that its US subsidiary, Lupin Pharmaceuticals, Inc received approval for the company's Abbreviated New Drug Application for Eszopiclone tablets, 1mg, 2mg and 3mg from the US Food and Drug Administration. Lupin's Eszopiclone tablets are the AB-rated generic equivalent of Sepracor's LUNESTA tablets,indicated for the treatment of insomnia.

L&T received a contract by the Ministry of Defence for the design and construction of 36 High Speed Interceptor Boats for the Indian Coast Guard. The contract is valued at Rs9.77bn, and is among one of the main initiatives being taken by the government to strengthen coastal security.

Shares of L&T edged lower by 0.2% to end at Rs1617. The scrip opened at Rs1621 it touched an intra-day high of Rs1623 and a low of Rs1581 and recorded volumes of over 0.19mn shares on BSE.

India Cements and United Breweries Holdings were in demand after an auction of the Indian Premier League (IPL) yesterday boosted the value of their cricket teams. In the latest addition to the IPL team, Sahara Adventure Sports of the Sahara Group won the Pune franchise with a record bid of US$370mn while, the second bid was for RsUS$333mn from a consortium of investors under Rendezvous Sports who opted for Kochi as their base camp.

Shares of Bata India gained by 1.5% to end at Rs242 after reports stated that the company was planning to sell a piece of land to buy the shops it’s renting. The property is located in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata and is worth as much as Rs3bn, reports added.

Shares of Indage Vintners fell over 7% to Rs47.8 after the company announced that a petition filed by certain lenders came up for hearing before the High Court of Judicature at Bombay and the Hon'ble Court passed an order directing that the Company be wound up based on the petition filed by lenders.

It is the Company's contention that notwithstanding the order passed by the Hon'ble Court, it is not expedient to wind up the business at this stage and therefore the Board of Directors in its meeting held on March 19, 2010, has decided to challenge the said order by filing an appeal in the competent Court.

Bullion metals turn pale again


Prices end lower as dollar spikes to ten month high against euro

Precious metal prices ended lower on Wednesday, 24 March 2010. Prices slipped as the dollar headed up strongly to its highest level in ten months following the resurface of Greece and Portugal's fiscal problems pressuring the euro.

Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.

On Wednesday, gold for April delivery ended at $1,088.8 an ounce, lower by $14.9 (1.4%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For most part of the day, gold remained a little below $1,100 due to strong demand. Last week, gold gained 0.5%. In FY 2010, gold touched a high of $1,154 in January.

On Wednesday, May Comex silver futures ended lower by 38 cents (2.3%) at $16.64 an ounce. Last week, silver ended almost unchanged against last Friday's closing of $17.04.

In the currency market on Wednesday, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against basket of six other currencies rose by 1.2% earlier in the day and settled for a 0.8% gain.

Portugal became the latest source of concern out of the European Union joining Greece in its fiscal problems. On Wednesday, Fitch Ratings downgraded Portugal one notch to AA- on concerns about its budget, and warned further cuts could happen.

Gold had ended FY 2009 higher by 24%. Silver futures had ended 2009 up 50%. The dollar index had lost 4.2% against its counterparts last year.

Last year, after hitting a low at $807.30 per ounce on 15 January 2009, gold futures rallied almost 51% to hit an all-time high at $1217.40 per ounce during early December of 2009 but fell from those levels at the end. Silver futures had hit a low at $10.42 on 15 January 2009 and hit a high at $19.30 per ounce on 2 December 2009. Like gold, silver also ended lower than its all time high level.

At the MCX, gold prices for May delivery closed lower by Rs 150 (0.91%) at Rs 16,295 per ten grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 16,461 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 16,275 per 10 grams during the day's trading.

At the MCX, silver prices for May delivery closed Rs 386 (1.45%) lower at Rs 26,230/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 26,563/kg and fell to a low of Rs 26,194/Kg during the day's trading.

Market may remain volatile ahead of F&O expiry; food inflation data eyed


Volatility may remain high as traders rollover positions in derivatives segment from the March 2010 series to the April 2010 series ahead of the expiry of the near-month March 2010 derivatives contracts today, 25 March 2010. Asian stocks were trading mixed today after Wall street closed in the red on Wednesday, 24 March 2010.

The government will unveil data on some wholesale price indices for the year through 12 March 2010 viz. the food price index, the primary articles index and the fuel price index at about 12:00 IST.

The stock market remained close on Wednesday, 24 March 2010, on account of Ram Navmi.

The demand-side pressure on the economy can build up further and it would be better to take some action now, Reserve Bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao said on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of India, citing intensifying inflationary pressures and a steady economic recovery, caught investors offguard with a 25 basis point tightening in shorterm lending rates late on Friday 19 March 2010, after local markets had closed.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said India could return to 9% growth trajectory by 2011-12, but cautioned that uncertain global environment could still play spoilsport. He said demand creation by expanding investment in infrastructure should act as a counterweight to any weakness in export sector.

The Planning Commission has suggested course correction in various policy measures related to social, agriculture and infrastructure sectors to put the economy back on high growth trajectory, while lowering the growth target for the five years to 2012.

The Planning Commission in its mid-term appraisal (MTA) of the Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-12) has scaled down the GDP growth target for the period to 8.1% from earlier projection of 9%.The MTA, which was cleared by the full Planning Commission on Tuesday, said the path of fiscal correction is crucial for macro-economic credibility and larger private investment. The MTA document will now be placed before the Cabinet and thereafter before the National Development Council (NDC) for final approval.

India must raise prices of fuel, fertiliser and food sold under welfare schemes to keep its subsidy bill at targeted levels, the deputy chairman of the Planning Commission, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, said on Tuesday. The government has said it would trim subsidies as part of measures to cut its large fiscal deficit.

The economy is expected to grow at 8.5% in this quarter, Kaushik Basu, chief economic adviser in the finance ministrysaid on Wednesday.

Coming back to stocks, encouraging Q4 March 2010 advance tax figures of top Indian firms, indicating good Q4 March 2010 results, had boosted the bourses last week. The market also witnessed a strong post-Budget rally driven by sustained buying by foreign funds since the presentation of the Union Budget 2010-2011 on 26 February 2010.

The stock market gave a thumbs up to the Union Budget 2010-2011 due to its thrust on infrastructure development, government's pledge to reduce fiscal deficit over the next three years, a smaller-than-expected 2% hike in excise duties, and reduction in taxes for individuals which will boost disposable income. The Finance Minister has assumed a modest GDP growth of about 8% and inflation of about 4.5% for 2010-2011.

Going ahead, the key triggers for the stock market are structural reforms such as decontrol of petrol and diesel prices, targeting of food subsidies, and financial sector reforms such as increase in foreign direct investment in insurance sector.

In stock specific news, Kuwait-based Zain Telecom's board cleared Bharti Airtel's proposal to buy its African assets for $10.7 billion (around Rs 48,600 crore), marking the Indian company's first successful attempt to acquire operations in Africa after two failures.Bharti had expressed its interest in Zain in the second week of February and the deadline for exclusive talks was to lapse today.

Asian stock markets were mixed on Thursday, after the Dow Jones industrials slipped following large gains in recent days. The key benchmark indices in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan fell by between 0.23% to 1.41%. But, the key benchmark indices in Indonesia, Japan and South Korea rose by between 0.09% to 0.58%.

The US stocks snapped a two-day winning streak on Wednesday, 24 March 2010 after Fitch cut its rating on Portugal by one notch and warned that another downgrade could be on the way. The Dow Jones fell 52.68 points or 0.48% to 10,836.15. The Nasdaq declined 16.48 points or 0.68% to 2,398.76 and the S&P 500 fell 6.45 points or 0.55% to 1,167.72.

In economic news, new-home sales fell around 2% to 308,000, the lowest on record, in February. Mortgage applications fell for a second straight week last week as interest rates crept higher. Orders for durable goods rose 0.5% in February as inventories increased by the most since December 2008.

With unemployment high and inflation low, the Federal Reserve is in no hurry to raise interest rates, two Federal Reserve officials suggested on Tuesday.

European Union leaders hold what is likely to be a tense and difficult summit on Thursday, divided over how to help heavily indebted Greece and struggling to maintain confidence in the euro.

Close home, the key benchmark indices swayed between gains and losses on Tuesday, 23 March 2010 ahead of the derivatives expiry later this week. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 40.45 points or 0.23% to 17,451.02 on that day.

As per provisional figures on NSE, foreign funds bought shares worth Rs 359.75 crore and domestic funds sold shares worth Rs 73.39 crore on Tuesday.

Alembic


Traders with short-term perspective can consider investing in the stock of Alembic. The stock was on a long-term uptrend since October 2008 low of Rs 24.7. It found twin support (uptrend-line and key support level) at Rs 45 recently and started to move upward. On March 23, the stock jumped 7 per cent accompanied with heavy volume, penetrating the 50-day moving average. It is trading well above the 21- and 50-day moving averages. There has been an increase in volumes over the past three trading sessions. The daily relative strength index is featuring in the bullish zone and weekly RSI is on the verge of entering this zone. Moreover, the daily moving average convergence and divergence indicator is likely to enter the positive territory while the weekly indicator is already hovering in this territory. The stock's recent jump has reinforced the bullish momentum and projects positive short-term outlook. We expect the stock's bullish momentum to continue until it hit our price target of Rs 53 and then Rs 55. Short-term traders can enter the stock while maintaining stop-loss at Rs 47.5

via BL

SGX Nifty Live Update - March 25 2010


5,221.50 -4.00