Budget Analysis 2009
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Tuesday, July 07, 2009
Daily Technical Analysis - July 7 2009
There was a sea of red splashed across trading screens on Monday as the Sensex and Nifty nose-dived 5.8 per cent. Market participants went on a selling spree, irked at the continuation of STT, increase in MAT and lack of policy direction in the Budget document.
Sensex (14,043.4)
Short term
The giant engulfing candle in the daily candlestick chart has made the short-term trend in Sensex turn downwards. The daily momentum indicators too corroborate this view. The short-term support that Sensex is clinging to is 14,016 that was the trough formed on June 23. A close below this level will take the index to the 50-day moving average at 13470 and the floor of the gap formed after the election result at 13479. In other words, despite the sell-off on Monday, the index is approaching key support zone from where a short-term rebound is possible. Strong close below 13500 is needed to make the medium-term view negative in the index.
Medium term
As indicated in the index outlook column published on July 5, the medium-term trend is under pressure. As the index is reversing from the key intermediate resistance zone between 15200 and 16200, a medium-term peak could have been formed at the June 11 peak of 15600. Failure to move beyond 15000 over the next two weeks will confirm this view.
Nifty (4,165.7)
Nifty too recorded a bearish engulfing candle in the daily chart and it closed below the recent trough at 4143 that is negative from a near-term perspective. But the index has strong support at 4100. Close below this level is needed to pull Nifty to 3884 or 3544 over the medium term. Close above 4500 is needed to make the short-term view positive in Nifty.
via BL
Turnover gallops
RIL July 2009 futures at premium
Nifty July 2009 futures were at 4154, at a discount of 11.70 points as compared to the spot closing of 4165.70. Turnover in NSE's futures & options (F&O) segment galloped to Rs 96,656.53 crore from Rs 54,841.47 crore on Friday, 3 July 2009.
Reliance Industries July 2009 futures were at a slight premium at 1,896.65 compared to the spot closing of 1893.15.
State Bank of India July 2009 futures were at discount at 1638.85 compared to the spot closing of 1653.50.
Bharat Heavy Electricals July 2009 futures were at discount at 2097.70 compared to the spot closing of 2100.50.
In the cash market, the S&P CNX Nifty lost 258.55 points or 5.84% at 4165.70 following a disappointment from Union Budget 2009-2010 which lacked big bang economic reforms.
Precious metals continue to drop
Yellow metal drops to lowest level in two weeks
Precious metal prices fell substantially at USA on Monday, 06 July, 2009. Slipping crude price and strong dollar snatched away quite some shine from precious metals by decreasing their appeal as a hedge against inflation. Gold fell to its lowest levels in two weeks.
Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa.
On Monday, gold for August delivery ended at $924.3, lower by $6.7 (0.7%) an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last week, gold ended lower by 1.1%. Year to date, gold prices are higher by 4.6%.
For the month of June, 2009, gold ended down by 5.4%. Gold had ended the month of May higher by 9.8%. It was the highest monthly gain registered by gold in six months. For the second quarter, gold ended higher by 0.5%. The metal had gained 4.3% in the first quarter of this year.
On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped somewhat (11%) since then.
On Monday, Comex silver futures for September delivery lost 17 cents (1.3%) at $13.238 an ounce.
Silver ended 13% down for the month of June, 2009. For the month of May, silver gained 26.6%. It was the biggest monthly gain for silver in more than two decades. For second quarter, silver rose 4.5%. Year to date, silver has climbed 17.3% this year. For 2008, silver had lost 24%.
In the currency market on Monday, the dollar index, a six-currency measure of the greenback's value rose considerably. The index rose on speculation that leaders from the Group of Eight nations will make efforts later this week to shore up the greenback. The dollar index dropped by 6.4% in the second quarter and is higher by almost 0.5% on a y-t-d basis.
Crude prices traded substantially lower today due to the strong dollar. Crude oil prices traded lower by 4% around $64/barrel.
In 2008, gold prices ended higher by 5.5%. The dollar index had gained 12% that year.
At the MCX, gold prices for August delivery closed higher by Rs 55 (0.44%) at Rs 14,519 per 10 grams. Prices rose to a high of Rs 14,560 per 10 grams and fell to a low of Rs 14,408 per 10 grams during the day's trading.
At the MCX, silver prices for September delivery closed Rs 156 (0.72%) higher at Rs 21,820/Kg. Prices opened at Rs 21,505/kg and rose to a high of Rs 21,899/Kg during the day's trading.
Crude at six week lows
Price drops as traders mull over global recovery timing
Crude prices fell substantially lower at Nymex on Monday, 06 July, 2009. Prices fell on worries about the timing of global recovery from the current recession and strong dollar. Crude prices dropped to six week lows today.
On Monday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for August delivery closed at $63.05/barrel (lower by $2.68 or 4%). Last week, crude ended lower by 3.5%.
For the month of June, 2009, crude ended higher by 5.5%. In May, crude had registered the largest monthly gain in a decade rising 30%. For the second quarter, crude ended higher by 40%. Crude prices had rallied 11.3% in the first quarter of 2009.
Oil prices had reached a high of $147 on 11 July, 2008 but have dropped almost 61% since then. Year to date, in 2009, crude prices are higher by 43%.
In the currency market on Monday, the dollar index, a six-currency measure of the greenback's value rose considerably. The index rose on speculation that leaders from the Group of Eight nations will make efforts later this week to shore up the greenback. The dollar index dropped by 6.4% in the second quarter and is higher by almost 0.5% on a y-t-d basis.
The Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday, 06 July, 2009 that the the service sectors of the U.S. economy contracted again during June but at a slower pace. The ISM nonmanufacturing index rose to 47% from 44% in May. This is the highest level since last September.
Also at the Nymex on Monday, August reformulated gasoline fell 5.04 cents, or 2.8%, to $1.7404 a gallon and August heating oil dropped 7.5 cents, or 4.4%, to $1.6266 a gallon.
August natural gas futures dropped 12.8 cents, or 3.5%, to $3.487 per million British thermal units.
Crude prices had ended FY 2008 lower by 54%, the largest yearly loss since trading began at Nymex.
At the MCX, crude oil for July delivery closed at Rs 3,117/barrel, lower by Rs 46 (1.4%) against previous day's close. Natural gas for July delivery closed at Rs 169.9/mmbtu, lower by Rs 5/mmbtu (2.8%).
Monday, July 06, 2009
Rakesh Jhunjhunwala - market expectations not met!
The finance minister focused more on the “Aam aadmi” by increasing the personal income tax exemption limit by Rs 15,000 from Rs 2.25 lakh to Rs 2.40 lakh for senior citizens, by Rs 10,000 from Rs 1.80 lakh to Rs 1.90 lakh for women tax payers and by similar amount from Rs 1.50 lakh to Rs 1.60 lakh for all other categories of individual taxpayers. Further, he removed the surcharge of 10% on personal income tax.
However, Mukherjee left corporate tax unchanged. The budget proposed increase in the minimum alternate tax to 15% from 10% of book profit while allowing to carry forward tax credit
on MAT to 10 years from 7 years.
On securities transaction tax, where the market had expected some changes, the finance minister disappointed again by saying only new pension system trust would be exempt from STT.
On the other hand, he scrapped the fringe benefit tax and commodities transaction tax.
Big time investor Rakesh Jhunjunwala said the budget had failed to meet market expectations. “With the new government, there were expectations of some policy pronouncements,” Jhunjhunwala said to ET NOW.
Abolition of FBT was indeed positive news, as Rs 8,000 crore would directly go to India Inc but he felt the disinvestment target of Rs 1,100 crore is very low.
Mukherjee said the government would encourage divestment of PSUs but maintain 51% stake. He said the government would divest stake in RITES, Cochin Shipyard, TCIL, and that it sought to raised Rs 1120 crore from divestment proceeds.
“Reforms have led to the progress of the country, but what steps were taken in this budget? Market not disappointed with the tax proposals at all,” Jhunjunwala said, adding that the budget should have given incentive to infrastructure sector.
“The kind of fillip the market was expecting is missing,” he said.
via Economic Times
India Budget Reactions 2009
Mr. B Prasanna, MD & CEO, ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd
The positives from the budget are its target on spending schemes designed to target inclusive growth and the continued emphasis on targeting growth at 9%. The substantial increase in expenditure over the interim budget spells good news for domestic consumption and growth. However, the bond markets would have to grapple with a higher than expected gross borrowing programme of Rs 4,50,000 Cr. There is an expectation that all the extra borrowing will be front ended and completed in the remaining 3 months of the first half when the liquidity is good. This increased borrowing may exert upward pressure in yields on a week on week basis. The budget also seems to be silent both on capital market reforms and on a road map for bigger divestments.
Mr. Kaushal Sampat, Chief Operating Officer - Dun & Bradstreet - India
The Union Budget 2009 -10 is largely positive, and seems to be an 'aspirational' budget in terms of what it seeks to achieve over a long term horizon. The short term proposals, which are focused on economic revival are welcome. Of course, these measures would have been even more welcome if a specific road map for containing the fiscal deficit had been laid out for the medium term. Having said that, the government does not have too much room to maneuver and perhaps, living with a high fiscal deficit may be inevitable for the time being. As economic revival sets in, and the high fiscal deficit becomes a potential bottleneck, monetary policy may have to be appropriately adjusted to take care of the issues pertaining to fund availability - which in itself may not have too much room. Hence, over the medium term, concerns remain over the fiscal deficit.
Mr. Gaurav Dua - Head Research , Sharekhan ltd.
The Union Budget has fallen short of high market expectations. The street has reacted negatively to issues such as high projected fiscal deficit of 6.8% (and more importantly there is no roadmap of bring it down), no mention of reforms in petroleum and insurance sectors, and absence of focus on aggressively pushing ahead the divestment program. On the positive side, the Finance Minister announced specific measures to enhance investment in infrastructure and boost domestic consumption through lower tax burden (higher standard deduction, withdrawal of surcharge and education cess). Overall, the focus continues to remain on stimulating economic growth in spite of further deterioration on fiscal front.
Mr. Kapil Wadhawan, VC & MD, DHFL (Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Limited)
The budget announced by FM for FY 2009-10 clearly focuses on improving rural housing and developing infrastructure in urban and rural India. The allocation of Rs.2,000 crore for Rural Housing Fund (RHF) through National Housing Bank (NHB) to boost the resource base of NHB for refinance operations in rural housing sector is a significant announcement and will help organizations like DHFL, which primarily focuses on the lower and middle income segment in the semi-urban and rural areas. With an acute shortage of over 25 million units, the PPP for affordable housing is a welcome step. The government should provide incentives and subsidies to developers to encourage them to focus on low cost / affordable housing.
Mr. Jai Mavani - Head, Infrastructure & Government Practice, KPMG In India
Enabling IIFCL to undertake take-out financing transactions, given the asset-liability mismatch of some Indian banks should certainly help infuse additional liquidity. Additional allocations to National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) and Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNURM) will also help. To surmise, there are definitely seeds sown and one should hope to see the green shoots soon. From the industry's perspective, the budget was certainly found lacking in certain areas.
Mr. Uday Ved- Head of Tax, KPMG in India
The FM stressed on the expectations from the new Government and the aim was to provide stability, continuity and prosperity. The FM has laid a very challenging goal of getting back to a growth rate of 9% and 12 million new jobs a year. The Governments has a clear focus on increasing spending in the infrastructure space. Forming of a SPV ('IIFCL') will indirectly make available funds for infrastructure sector. For inclusive growth of economy government has given emphasis on development of social infrastructure (education and health), rural and agricultural growth.
Mr. Gautam Adani, Chairman, Adani Group
"The gradual ramp up of investment in infrastructure in excess of to 9% of GDP by 2014 indicates clear focus on infrastructure, flexibility to IIFCL and increased expenditure on NHAI are welcome steps. The exports too are getting push; this will help the domestic economy. With abolition of FBT and Surcharge on IT, more money will be available in individual hands in these challenging times; this will catalyze savings, investments and spending; which in turn will help the economy. An appropriate budget."
Mr. Pranav Ansal, Vice Chairman, & Managing Director, Ansal API
The hike in infrastructure spending will be a huge boost for the real estate industry as the two are directly related for the most part. Any increase in the spending on infrastructure results in an increase in value of real estate development. This also bodes well for the future as with increased and improved infrastructure, the potential of India as being a significant destination for investment improves significantly.
Mr. Anil Agrawal, Whole Time Director, Sanwaria Agro Oils Ltd.
The budget lacks long-term policies and objectives. It has got some good announcements like abolishment of FBT, CTT, and surcharge from personal income tax whereas some discouraging announcements like increase in MAT tax and non touching of corporate tax rate and dividend distribution tax. Thus the budget is basically status-quo statement and there is nothing in budget for edible oil industries and edible oil seeds in particular. Reintroduction of import duty on edible oils was badly needed which is not taken care. In overall the budget lacking directions and it is revenue neutral to greater extent.
Mr. Bikram Dasgupta, Chairman and CEO, Globsyn Group
The budget has been balanced and has opened doors for education and made sufficient efforts for bringing in much needed reforms in the society. Increasing over all budget allocation for higher education is indeed a welcome move and clubbed with tax benefit under Section 80E for education loan will also further give a boost to the sector and bring education closer to many deserving youngsters. Move to set up central university in each state and redefining the investment for higher education by setting up of more IITs and IIMs are indeed steps in the right direction. In case of the Information Technology sector, extension to the STPI scheme is welcome as also defining the software product as a service. However much is left for the SME sector of Software Industry to give it a further fillip in order to march the growing requirements of the economy.
Mr. Sanjay Pai, Chief Financial Officer, Plethico Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
Overall: very pragmatic budget, considering the fact that, Indian consumers have been (in various patches) been deprived of spending money either in terms of layoffs, salary cuts, high tax for individuals etc. The other highlights which were interesting:
Abolishing of FBT. It was a tax which was yielding peanuts to the department, but was costing the employees (FBT on ESOP's) and was a arduous task for accountants. Besides, it is painstaking even for the department to go after small ticket items. Hence it was a win win. Surcharge of 10% and the cess etc. on the surcharge. This will leave some money in the Individuals pockets.
Marginal increase in Tax exemption for Senior citizen, women and others. 150% tax deduction for R&D - good for various Companies - especially Pharma. Co's. 10A/10B extended for one more year. MAT increased from 10% to 15% was I think a counter balancing measure, but it should be fine.
Mr. Saurav Arora, Sr. Vice president - Jaypee Capital
It was widely expected that the government would take a positive stance towards CTT. It has finally been abolished, which in turn would lead to growth of Indian Commodity Exchanges and development of the market. New and existing exchanges would benefit from the same. We would expect more market participants to enter the market and foresee this as a very good step for the commodity futures market, making it efficient for the natural hedgers to hedge cost effectively.
Mr. Sanjay Kaul, MD & CEO, National Collateral Management Services Limited.
"The budget proposal to offer 25 kg rice / wheat @Rs 3 /kg, per BPL family per month is commendable. Also, the interest subsidy scheme for farmers is a justifiable reward for continuing in a business, the fortunes of which are dependent on the vagaries of nature. The other sector which has deservedly received the Finance Minister's attention is the Infrastructure sector. The promotion of infrastructure finance by banks and institutions to the tune of Rs 1,00,000 crore through take-out financing support by IIFCL is also a step in the right direction, given the massive requirement for infrastructure in the country. In this context, the investment linked incentives for setting up and operating cold chain warehousing is welcome; however, had the same incentive also been extended to regular warehousing, it would have been a huge plus for the storage industry with beneficial effects on the economy of the country, given the potential to reduce loss due to deterioration of food grains owing to poor storage practices. On the taxation proposals, the abolition of CTT is welcome considering that the commodities markets are still in the nascent stages of development and CTT was detrimental to the growth and development of the markets".
Mr. Dinesh Thakkar, CMD - Angel Broking
EFFECT ON EQUITY MARKET: "The Budget proved to be a 'low-on-deliverance' affair and this was magnified on account of the huge expectations that the market had built from it. Amongst the many shortfalls in the Budget, it was silent on the timeline for tackling the Fiscal Deficit position of the country, and the Reforms process announcements expected from it which would have aided in handling the fiscal situation of the government. As far as the various tax reforms were concerned, no significant changes in the same goes well in line with our expectation as the government would need to focus on spending. We believe a silver lining in the Budget was the increase in outlay for Planned Expenditure, which is necessary to push India into a higher growth trajectory. Overall, while the Budget did not stand true to all of market expectations, we expect that the government's efforts will continue outside the Budget also and will help improve Corporate India's earnings going forward. Thus, we expect the stock market to reflect this improvement in earnings and would advise investors to stay long on the India story."
EFFECT ON COMMODITY MARKETS: Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) to be Abolished. "A very positive sign for Indian commodities market. Being in the nascent stage of development, abolition of CTT will reduce transaction costs in commodities trading, thereby the burden will come down and participation in these markets shall increase.CTT was to be introduced in the last budget and was causing concern in the growth of the Indian commodities market. This news of abolition of CTT has brought in great relief".
Mr. R Chandrasekaran, President and Managing Director, Global Delivery, Cognizant
The extension of the sunset clause on STPI by a year is welcome. While this will benefit the entire industry, it will specifically benefit the small and medium sized companies in the industry that needed this critical impetus for growth. This is also important in this turbulent global economic environment, in the context of emerging locations such as China, Philippines or Vietnam continuing to offer attractive tax incentives. A substantially higher outlay for institutions of higher learning such as IITs and NITs should increase the R&D throughput and innovation quotient in a material way. At a time when industries are undergoing structural changes globally, it is innovation that can catalyze the next phase of growth. The support provided by way of subsidy for poor students pursuing higher education should provide the required impetus for enhancing the overall employable talent pool. The modernization of employment exchange under the PPP (private-public partnership) mode will help align skills with available employment opportunities at the national level and on a real time basis. The abolition of fringe benefit tax is also welcome since the administrative hassle involved in FBT compliance was very high. The clarity on transfer pricing assessments and the setting up of an independent dispute settlement mechanism is something that the industry sought. That the Finance Minister has announced an industry-specific safe-harbour provision will be notified, will help in resolving assessment issues relating to transfer pricing."
Mr. Ashank Desai's (Founder - Mastek)
I feel that the budget announced today is directionally positive for the IT sector in building long term growth and overall potential at a global level. We had issues at various levels of taxation but most of them have been addressed. The government is also looking to invest in the infrastructure and education sectors, thus removing the constraints for their growth in the medium and long term. The government is investing in e-governance projects to make government services effective, thus giving boost to the Indian IT market which is a very good strategy. We are confident that the government is looking positively towards the IT industry for making global impact as well as building knowledge economy in the country. The budget points towards the government's intention in that direction.
Mr. Partha Iyengar - VP distinguished analyst and regional research director, Gartner, India.
The budget overall was a disappointment in the context of the huge expectations everyone had in terms of the bold brave strokes that Mr. Mukherjee was expected to (or everyone was hoping he would) paint for the direction of the Indian economy. Instead it has turned out to be a sober, minimalist, practical budget with some tweaks and correction of anomalies (e.g. dropping the FBT tax) rather than any major path-breaking steps. From an IT perspective, the two main areas of expectations related to an aggressive stance on education and infrastructure reform. While there were some steps on the infrastructure side, very little to no attention was made on the critical education front, specifically revamping of primary education. Some allocation and 'tinkering' with the IITs is not what India needs now, but unfortunately that is all we have gotten in this budget. The 1 year extension of the tax holiday was a good move in that it provides some short-term relief, but also clearly puts the writing on the wall that this is not a scheme that is going to be continued beyond this 1 year extension, thus allowing IT companies to plan accordingly for the medium to long term. Some of the bold measures expected were also as it relates to aggressive disinvestment, FDI reform, specific pronouncements on increase in focus on governance and transparency of money being spent. None of these had any mention, other than an oblique reference to PSU disinvestment. Overall, a fairly ho-hum budget. Maybe there is more to be read in Mr. Mukherjee's preamble that talked of the budget not being the 'be all and end all' of policy statements, and this might have been the first concrete step in that direction.
Mr. Narayan S.A., Managing Director, Kotak Securities.
The Finance Minister has rightly focused on sustaining the GDP growth in the current year and has even set a target of returning to the 9% growth rate at the earliest, which is encouraging. To achieve this target, he has committed significant investments in the physical and social infrastructure. These investments will allow the economy to restrict any further impact of an uncertain global economy. The FM has also put more money in the hands of the consumers by withdrawing the sur-charge on personal income tax. These committed investments have led to an increase in the target of fiscal deficit. However, we expect the same to be addressed in the next fiscal. Moreover, the fiscal deficit figure can surprise positively, if the disinvestment process picks up steam in the current fiscal or if the economic growth leads to a growth in taxes as compared to the budgeted flat receipts. As far as the markets are concerned, the recent out-performance over other emerging markets and the over-bought status of the markets has led to the correction. The increase in the rate of MAT may also have an impact on profits of select companies. We see this fall in markets as a short term phenomenon and focus will now shift to more fundamental factors like earnings growth and the near term phenomenon of monsoon. Abolishment of FBT will be profit accretive for corporates. In the case of employees ESOPs it is neutral as the benefit of abolishing FBT is introduced by taxing the gain as perquisite.
Mr. Vipul Jain - CEO & Managing Director, Kale Consultants Ltd.
The finance minister has given a balanced approach to the budget. Initiatives towards abolishing FBT and increase in tax exemption for salaried employees is commendable. The 1 year extension of the STPI scheme is appreciated, but a longer extension would have definitely helped the industry. Increase in MAT is also not a favourable move. The honorable minister had a good chance to boost the corporate sector in face of the economic conditions, but the focus seems to be on driving demand by giving incentives to the rural sector.
Mr. H. Tripathi, CEO & MD of Infrasoft Technologies Ltd.
As I had commented pre-budget, we were not expecting much change; neither sops nor pains from the Union Budget released today. However, on a very positive note, removal of FBT is very encouraging as it will reduce accounting hassles and unforeseeable losses. Removal of FBT also covers ESOPs. FBT had made ESOPs unattractive to companies. With removal of FBT, ESOP scheme will become simple to operate. In present circumstances where 'the fair market price' for stocks would be lower for most organizations, you may suddenly see an increase in ESOP issues; which is good for enhancing people participation in businesses. Removal of surcharge on personal income is also a very positive development as it will leave a little more money in the hands of employees. Considering most companies are increment shy presently, it will help individuals to have more cash at hand. Extension of STPI scheme for tax exemption by one more year is welcome but does not provide any long term vision. Mid-sized companies will once again be unable to plan their investments in new premises & people into SEZs. Realistically, the problem only gets postponed by another 9 months considering one quarter of the current financial year is over. The new budget has to be seen in the light of the fact that the new government is only 45 days old and they have not put negative measures in large doses in the budget. The government's positive intent is clearly seen.
Mr. S Gopalakrishnan, CEO and Managing Director of Infosys Technologies Ltd.
"The Finance Minister has talked about the creation of twelve million jobs, reaching a growth rate of 9% and investment in infrastructure at the rate 9% of GDP. From a taxation perspective, increasing the income tax slabs, removal of the surcharge on personal income taxes and FBT stands out. For the IT industry, extension of 10A/10B exemptions by 1 more year is a move that is more emotional than of actual benefit since most STPs would have come out of the tax holidays. The government's focus on IT investment for enhanced governance is encouraging. The move to increase investment in higher education, especially in the IITs and NITs, will greatly benefit the industry in the medium and long term. On the whole, directionally it is a good budget given the current economic situation. However, I would have liked to see a clear road map on how the FM would bring down the deficit from 6.8% to perhaps 3%. The second thing I would have liked to hear about is how he intends to enhance foreign direct investment. "
Mr. Girish Trivedi, Deputy Director,ICT Practice, Frost & Sullivan, South Asia & Middle East Impact
Positive - launch of unique ID, higher financial inclusion will mean better opportunities for IT (upgrading the rural exchange, allocation and dependence on IT for successfully implementing NREG, infrastructure development etc). Reduction on duty cuts on LCD is positive step. More IITs and NITs will lead to enhancing better skill sets which is very positive. MAT implementation might create some burden, need to read fine print. We still need to assess if increase in consultancy service tax rate includes IT consulting services as well, if yes might be an additional burden on most of the large IT companies who have started taking lot of consulting work along with their IT projects. No announcements of 3G and revenues that can be generated as a result of auctions etc. it also means that the overall 3G launch might take a bit more than expected. Extension of tax holiday for STP scheme which was expected is positive, however a longer term view should have given a better impetus to the industry which is suffering due to low opportunities in traditional US/ European market. Duty on set -top box might be good for local manufacturing companies, but since most of these boxes are imported, the costs will get passed on to the users. There was an announcement on tax reforms, and making income tax filing easier over 3/4 years online, this will be positive for IT sector.
Mr. Manoj Agarwal, Managing Director, Adhunik Metaliks Ltd said
"It's a growth budget with emphasis on generating consumption and investment by increasing money in the hands of individuals. The Finance minister has made a bold statement of getting the GDP growth rate back to 9 %, which in itself will provide impetus by way of large spending in infrastructure projects".
Mr. Jai Hiremath, President of Indian Chemical Council
"The budget was a little disappointment as it did nothing for the chemicals industry. However, there weren't any negative surprises either. Removal of FBT and extension of EOU benefits were some minor positives, while increase in MAT rate was the key negative. Overall, the budget was a non-event as far as the chemicals industry is considered."
Mr. P.K. Ghose, Executive Director and CFO, Tata Chemicals
"The India budget 2009 can be termed "a fiscal stimulus budget" as there has been a major hike in total expenditure by 36%. After many years, capital expenditure is expected to grow by 33%. The focus on infrastructure is expected to boost demand for cement and steel. The elimination of surcharge on income tax, abolition of Fringe Benefit Tax and extension of the sunset clauses u/s 10 and 10A are big positives. On the Fertiliser subsidy front, the move towards a nutrient based subsidy regime is a welcome move, as it will free the MRP and fix the subsidy. I feel that since this budget was prepared in the backdrop of the international financial meltdown it has tempered huge expectations."
Mr. Saurabh Nanavati, Chief Executive Officer, Religare Mutual Fund
"The market had huge expectations from the budget. Therefore post the 17% rise in one day post the election results, the markets are now correcting in line with the operating fundamentals. Think through this - a) In tough times, people need cash money in their hands to decide on the area they want to spend on - the FM has reduced tax surcharge and given money in their hands. b) The core sectors from a long term India story perspective are the rural / agri sectors and the infrastructure areas. The budget has again been very generous in these areas. What the FM has lacked is better Selling / Marketing skills in presenting the budget which is unfortunately what the market is focused on. This is a good, stable budget - nothing reformist - but in the right direction of reducing complexities and taking incremental steps towards taking the country's GDP back to 8%+ levels. Let's empathize with the FM's tough position of balancing growth and fiscal discipline. Its time for the industry to get back to work, improve productivity and implementing at the ground level. That will result in sustainable growth, not a budget speech."
Dr. Naushad FORBES, Chairman, CII Western Region
"We welcome the reaffirmation of the Government's intention to implement GST by April 2010. We further welcome the abolition of Fringe Benefit tax and Commodities Transaction Tax. However there is a big lacuna in the impetus provided by the Government in boosting industrial investment. There is a missed opportunity of setting out the new government's overall 5 -year reform agenda in areas like education, power sector reforms, etc."
Dr. Rahul Mirchandani, Executive Director, Aries Agro Ltd on the Budget said:
"The budget has made great moves on infrastructure development, including cold storages and warehousing, and irrigation development which will both be positive for agriculture. There is also a good focus on knowledge creation with R&D expenses being incentivized for industry, however there is no focus at all on incentivizing knowledge spread using tax breaks on extension services by private companies. A lot more could have been done on funding agricultural universities and research institutions and also the primary and secondary basic education. Education seems to have taken a back seat in these budget proposals, though infrastructure has been made a primary focus. The nutrient based subsidy regime is great for the sector, however a proper delivery mechanism to ensure that the farmers are made subsidy payments in time and efficiently would be critical to ensure success in the long term."
Mr. Anand Ladsariya, Chairman, CHEMEXCIL (Basic Chemicals, Pharmaceuticals & Cosmetics Export Promotion Council)
BUDGET ON EXPORT SECTOR - "For export sector, budget is reasonably satisfactory. Interest rate subvention has been extended upto 31 March 2010. Allocation for Market Development Assistance has been increased substantially by 148%. Export Promotion Councils as well as FIEO have been exempted from Service Tax. Exporters have been exempted from Service Tax for foreign agent's commission, freight as earlier getting refund of these service taxes was very difficult. Further, exemption under Section 10A / 10B has been extended by one year. A fund for exporters liquidity and credit has been created which will be very useful. We were expecting revival of Section 80 HHC as well as resolving the income tax problem with regard to taxation of DEPB. Unfortunately this has not been resolved."
Mr. Dilip Bhatia, Director, Kotak Commodity Services ltd.
Primary Focus ·Agricultural, infrastructure and social engineering have been major highlights of this budget. ·The Budget fails to pay attention to commodity markets in general with an exception of CTT. ·The budget did not give any clarity on FRCA and making warehouse receipts negotiable. ·The government is geared to make GST applicable from April 2010. Increased Focus on Agriculture, Irrigation, Fertilizer and Warehousing ·The target agricultural credit flow increased Rs.325000 crore from Rs.287000 crore. ·Interest subvention to farmers for short term crop loans to be continued at the rate of 7%. Additional interest subvention of 1% announced for those farmers who repay loans on time. ·The Acceleration Irrigation Benefit Programme to get additional 1000 over interim budget allocation. ·To ensure balanced application of fertilizers, the Government intends to move towards a nutrient based subsidy regime instead of the current product pricing regime. ·Investment linked tax incentives to cover businesses of setting up and operating 'cold chain', warehousing facilities for storing agricultural produce. Impact: Positive. It would facilitate the growth of the agriculture sector, the back bone of the Indian economy. The growth of agriculture would help in enhancing production of grains, cereals and oilseeds and thereby help in consolidating commodity business in the long term.
Mr. Surjeet Singh, Chief Financial Officer, Patni
"Overall, the Budget is a growth budget and stimulates consumption of investment. The target of 9% GDP growth is indeed an encouraging sign and the Finance Ministry has made some bold attempts at tax reforms. For the IT Services sector in particular, the removal of FBT and the reforms in indirect taxes is seen as a major plus, allowing for stock based compensation to be more effective. In a knowledge sector such as ours, this calls for better attraction and retention of talent across all levels, and inspires innovation and entrepreneurship. The extension of 10A and STPI is seen as another positive move by the Ministry, and although the expectations that the industry had, were for an extension beyond 1 year, in light of the overall incentives laid down, I find the budget to be promising. That said, the 5% increase in MAT to 15% is a slight disappointment and will lead to higher cash output in the short term. We are also awaiting greater clarity on the service tax on IT services exports, and expect further policy announcements in public sector disinvestment and infrastructure reforms in the days to come."
Taxes on Commodity - ·Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) abolished from current year. Impact: Neutral. Although the tax was imposed, it was not notified. But the removal of tax could improve sentiments. Other Highlights ·Gold: Customs on gold bars increased to Rs.200 per 10gm from Rs.100 per 10 gm. ·Silver: Customs on silver bars increased to Rs.1000 per 1 kg from Rs.500 per 1 kg. ·Branded Jewellery has been fully exempted from the custom duty. ·Petro-diesel blended with bio-diesel will be exempt from duty.
Impact: Neutral. There shall be an appreciation in prices of gold and silver to the extent of the gain in customs. Otherwise there shall not be any change in demand for the metal. The removal of duties on petro-diesel blend has more to do with India's commitment towards arresting climate change. We do not feel it will have a direct impact on commodities.
Conclusion: The budget in general is disappointing for the commodity markets. We do not feel the budget would impact commodities in general. Hence we term it as neutral.
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