Monday, December 22, 2008
Pre Session Commentary - Dec 22 2008
Today the markets are expected to open up marginally in green and may turn into northward volatility. The fingers are crossed over the second stimulus package and also for the cut in the interest rates. The benchmark indices are also expected to discount the mixed cues from the Asian markets. However, the downbeat factor over the week was the volatility, which indicates that there is some fear still exits in the market. Sequentially, the reaction over the bailout package to the Auto makers on Friday was muted indicating for more economic policy.
On Friday, the market was volatile for the day and ended on a marginal gain. A series of positive news flow over the week has propelled the sentiments of the investors. The BSE sensex managed to end the week above five-digit mark. One good thing that the policymakers have been able to do is by asking the banks to start lending again and restore confidence. On the other end, the falling inflation number and expectation of second stimulus package has acted as confidence booster in the market. Sensex and Nifty gained 0.23% and 0.54%. Realty, Capital Goods, Healthcare and Auto conceded gains of 10.57%, 0.79%, 1.55% and 1.79% respectively.
The BSE Sensex closed higher by 23.48 points at 10,099.91 and NSE Nifty ended high by 16.75 points at 3,077.50. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps ended with gain of 59.43 points and 32.07 points at 3,263.99 and 3,744.02 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 10,188.54 and intraday low of 9,987.42.
On Friday, the US markets closed in mix. US President George W Bush bailed out US automakers on Friday with $17.4 billion in emergency loans. However, the santa touch is being felt on the Wall Street and optimism over efforts to fight the year long recession may prompt a year end rally. There are good bargains out there and there is a fair amount of buying in the marketplace. Crude oil futures for the month of January delivery that expired Friday fell $2.35 to $33.87 per barrel on New York Mercantile Exchange. The crude futures have touched an intraday of $32.40 per barrel in the electronic trading, the lowest level for a front-month contract since at least April 2004 after inventories rose to 19-month highs and the investor''s rush to invest in the next month''s contract. However, the oil for February delivery rose 69 cents to end at $42.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed low with 26 points at 8,579, whereas NASDAQ index managed to gain 12 points at 1,564 and the S&P 500 (SPX) also closed higher by 3 points to close at 889 points.
Indian ADRs ended mixed. In technology sector, Infosys gained by 0.31% and Wipro also gained by 2.70% whereas Satyam that dropped by 4.74% and Patni Computers closing low by 2.41%. In banking sector ICICI Bank surged by 1.30%, HDFC Bank fell by 1.69%. In telecommunication sector, Tata Communication plunged by 5.33%, while MTNL declined by 0.29%.
Today the major stock markets in Asia opened mixed. The Shanghai Composite is trading low by 36.28 at 1,982.17 Hang Seng is low by 150.30 points at 14,977.21. Further Japan''s Nikkei is higher by 118.58 points at 8,707.10. Tiwan weighted low by 46.62 points at 4,647.90 and Singapore’s Strait Times is up by 6.45 points at 1,801.92.
The FIIs on Friday stood as net sellers in equity and as net buyer in debt. Gross equity purchased stood at Rs 2,139.90 Crore and gross debt purchased stood at Rs 776.50 Crore, while the gross equity sold stood at Rs 2,194.10 Crore and gross debt sold stood at Rs 163.90 Crore. Therefore, the net investment of equity and debt reported were Rs (54.20) Crore and Rs 612.50 Crore respectively.
On Friday Indian Rupee closed at 47.26/27 a dollar, about 0.6% weaker than Thursday''s close of 46.95/96. The euro''s fall against the dollar raised expectations of a stronger U.S. currency, but hopes of capital inflows checked losses.
On BSE, total number of shares traded were 42.01 Crore and total turnover stood at Rs 5,066.77 Crore. On NSE, total number of shares traded were 87.86 Crore and total turnover was Rs 13,245.87 Crore.
Top traded volumes on NSE Nifty – Unitech with 106458838 shares, Suzlon Energy with total volume traded 52240172 shares, DLF with 21499700 shares, Satyam with 14896609 shares, followed by SAIL with 14746746 shares.
On NSE Future and Options, total number of contracts traded in index futures was 1107385 with a total turnover of Rs 16075.49 Crore. Along with this total number of contracts traded in stock futures were 1476299 with a total turnover of Rs 15972.99 Crore. Total numbers of contracts for index options were 1162996 with a total turnover of Rs 17895.06 Crore and total numbers of contracts for stock options were 64649 and notional turnover was Rs 726.75 Crore.
Today, Nifty would have a support at 2,975 and resistance at 3,160 and BSE Sensex has support at 9,850 and resistance at 10,300.
Market may open higher
Key benchmark indices are likely to open firm on a likely second round of government stimulus package to pump prime the ailing economy and on expectations of a further fall of key policy rates with the inflation rate dropping to a nine-month low. However volatility may rise ahead of the December series F&O contracts expiry on Wednesday, 24 December 2008.
Global cues were mixed despite the US President George W Bush announcing a baiout for US automakers on Friday with $17.4 billion in emergency loans to stave off a collapse that would have cost hundreds of thousands of jobs. But Bush attached a string of conditions to the 3-year loans and set an end-March deadline for General Motors Corp and Chrysler LLC to prove they can restructure enough to ensure their survival or have the loans called back.
Asian markets were trading mixed today, 22 December 2008. China's Shanghai Composite was down 1.14% or 22.93 points at 1,995.53, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.85% or 129.05 points at 14,998.46, Singapore's Straits Times fell 0.19% or 3.44 points at 1,792.03, Taiwan's Taiwan Weighted declined 0.54% or 25.35 points at 4,669.17. However, Japan's Nikkei gained 1.42% or 121.90 points at 8,710.42 and South Korea's Seoul Composite was up 0.82% or 9.73 points at 1,190.70.
US markets pared early gains driven by the $17.5 billion auto bailout plan to settle on a mixed note on Friday, 19 December 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 25.88 points, or 0.30% to 8,579.11. But the Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 2.60 points, or 0.29% to 887.88 and the Nasdaq Composite Index added 11.95 points, or 0.77% to 1,564.32.
Back home, as per reports, rollover of Nifty positions from December 2008 series to January 2009 series stood at 31% as of Friday, 19 December 2008.
Also there is a possibility of dip in trading volumes due to a likely decline in foreign institutional participation on account of the Christmas and New Year celebrations. In that case, domestic institutions are expected to play a key role in determining the market direction. Market remains closed on Thursday, 25 December 2008 on account of Christmas.
Key benchmark indices rebounded from day's low in late trade on Friday, 19 December 2008, triggered by expectations of a second government stimulus package for the economy and on hopes of further cut in interest rates by the central bank. The BSE 30-share Sensex rose 23.48 points, or 0.23%, to 10,099.91 and the S&P CNX Nifty was up 16.75 points, or 0.55%, to 3,077.50, on that day.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers worth Rs 378.43 crore while mutual funds bought shares worth Rs 410.85 crore on Friday, 19 December 2008, according to provisional data on NSE.
My Portfolio - Dec 22 2008
SOLD - Manaksia, Natco Pharma, Zylog Systems, Cholamandalam DBS and Sterling Biotech
ADDED - NIIT Ltd
Reshuffling the portfolio a bit and see if I could generate cash for the next panic day
Daily Trading Calls - Dec 22 2008
Nifty (3078) Sup 3025 Res 3125
Buy Bharat Forge (87) SL 85 Target 91, 92
Buy Sun TV (166) SL 163
Target 172, 173
Buy Maruti (549) SL 544
Target 559, 561
Buy IOC (424) SL 419
Target 434, 436
Sell HDFC (1524) SL 1545
Target 1485, 1475
Daily News Roundup - Dec 22 2008
Reliance Industries may go slow on certain of its planned projects such as the Rs50bn Rewas port project, Navi Mumbai SEZ and the Rs300bn semi-conductor project.(BL)
HDFC has reduced its Retail PLR by 50bps and introduced two slabs for floating interest rate home loans.(BL)
ACC puts Rs6bn RMC expansion plans on hold. (ET)
SBI announced a 0.75% cut in its PLR and a 0.25-1% reduction in deposit rates from January 1.(FE)
US Congressmen have asked the country's Export-Import Bank to suspend US$900mn in aid to Reliance Industries over its ties with Iran.(DNA)
Nalco has entered into a JV agreement with United Arab Emirates government linked RAK Minerals and Metals Investment for setting up a 0.5mn ton smelter in Indonesia at a project cost of around US$4bn.(DNA)
Parsvnath Developers says that work on 12 of its proposed SEZs is proceeding at a slow pace as the land acquisition for those projects was not yet complete.(BL)
Reliance Industries may begin production at KG Basin by Feb 2009. (ET)
Reliance Industries gets US government Rs28mn grant for liquid fuel project. (ET)
US put pressure on Reliance Industries to stop gasoline sales to Iran. (ET)
Liberia has cleared Tata Steel of all allegations and has invited it to join the bidding process for the Western Cluster iron ore project in that country.(FE)
Sun Pharmaceutical announced to extend the tender offer for the purchase of all outstanding shares of Taro to January 9. (BS)
Wockhardt plans preferential allotment to raise Rs5bn. (BS)
Tatas buy 300 acres in Tamil Nadu for titanium unit. (BS)
High Court approves the Scheme of Amalgamation of its subsidiary Sesa Industries with the Sesa Goa. (BS)
Ceat announces price cuts to the tune of 3 – 4% on its truck tyres. (ET)
Bosch to expand India biz, open 100 showrooms in 2 years. (ET)
Ranbaxy Laboratories rejigs board names Malvinder as chairman. (ET)
RPG exits mobile retail space; sells 50% to JV partner. (ET)
ITC, Accor in race to acquire six hotel properties owned by Unitech. (ET)
Ranbaxy may sell 3 plants in Asia to rationalize cost. (ET)
Ess Dee Aluminium to re-open IFL’s Hoera plant by March. (ET)
Coal India to expedite land acquisition for new projects. (ET)
Unitech plans to open its first hotel next year. (ET)
AP Government grants Rs1.21bn project to Maytas Infra. (ET)
SEBI directs PSTL promoters to make open offer at Rs250 or more. (ET)
GoAir to expand fleet size to 35 by FY11. (ET)
Fortis plans to raise Rs18-20bn via rights or warrants issue. (BS)
Tata’s to raise Rs150bn via public offer of debt securities, sale of Tata Motor vehicle loan pool, PE placement and soliciting public deposit. (BS)
Rashtriya Ispat Nigam to have majority stake in Bird Group of companies. (BS)
KEC International receives an order for Rs880mn from national electricity company of Tajikistan.(BL)
GMR Group is looking at setting up a greenfield power project in Europe.(FE)
C&C Constructions says it has received an order worth Rs7.8bn to build a freight corridor in Bihar.(FE)
Jindal Drugs to start Jammu plant by Feb 2009. (BS)
DoT may refer the issue of levying administrative charges on 3G mobile operators to the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs.(BL)
Telecom commission has rejected TRAI proposal to levy an administrative charge on firms winning 3G spectrum in an auction due in January.(FE)
Borrowing from international markets could now be opened for real estate companies, the only industrial sector that has so far not been allowed to tap the route.(FE)
Forex reserves rose to US$250bn as on December 12 from US$246bn a week earlier.(FE)
Planning Commission says the country's economy will need stimulus package in next fiscal as well since global slowdown will continue in 2009-10.(FE)
Government may relax ECB norms for NBFCs, realty. (BS)
Advance tax paid by top 100 tax-paying firms dipped 21% in Q3 of the current fiscal compared with the same period last year. (BS)
Centre weighs reimposition of 10% CVD on import of long steel items. (ET)
Government considering refinancing state transport firms. (BS)
Shipping industry seeks Rs100bn fund from centre. (BS)
Government mulls long term funding for infra companies via IIFCL. (BS)
Back in business!
We can be hurt, but not knocked down – Ratan Tata.
India's twin towers (of terror) - The Taj and The Trident Oberoi - are back in business. It not only underlines the city's resilient spirit but also epitomises the nation's new-found confidence, which has seen it withstand several tragedies in the past few years. It is this courage of conviction that will stand India in good stead in the next couple of years, as it battles a crippling global recession and domestic slowdown.
The bulls too have been more or less back in business over the past couple of weeks. They will hope to be at peace during the Christmas week. But Asian markets are pretty mixed this morning. US stock benchmarks too ended mixed on Friday while European markets declined marginally. The start today may be flat at best. Wild swings will be the order of this week due to derivative settlement and lower volume.
The Government and regulators have played their roles in perking up market sentiment by unleashing a string of fiscal as well as monetary steps. More such measures are in the offing over the next few weeks, as inflation has cooled off substantially and is set to fall further. Banks have also started cutting rates, which spells good news for both consumers as well as corporates. The rupee has strengthened against the dollar and even the elusive FII money is also finding its way into the markets. Other macro-economic factors, however, are yet to show any signs of improvement. The market may find it a bit tough to build on the recent gains if these data points continue to be weak.
Keep an eye on the political front with general elections lined up for April-May. Global trends and news will of course have a major bearing on the market's near-term as well as long-term direction. There is always a possibility of some NAV prop-up which could drive select stocks higher; that may happen next week. We expect the bulls to maintain their hold on the market for a while before a fresh round of selling hits world markets. Volatility may inch higher ahead of Wednesday's F&O expiry (a day earlier due to Christmas holiday on Thursday).
US market may also turn more volatile as many market participants may choose to extend their Christmas holidays. US markets will close early on Wednesday and will remain closed on Thursday. Financial markets across the globe may witness less trading activity this week. The Indian markets too will remain shut on Thursday.
FIIs were net buyers of Rs3.78bn (provisional) in the cash segment on Thursday while the local institutions poured in Rs4.1bn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs3.47bn. On Thursday, FIIs were net sellers at Rs542mn in the cash segment. Mutual Funds too pulled out Rs1.81bn on the same day.
US stocks ended mixed on Friday with the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping marginally, while the broader market barometer S&P 500 index and technology-laden Nasdaq Composite index posting moderate gains.
The Dow was down by 25.88 points or 0.3% to end at 8579.11, while the S&P added nearly 0.3% to 887.88, and the Nasdaq closed 0.75% higher at 1564.32. The Russell 2000 Index of small US companies climbed 1.5%.
About three stocks gained for every two that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.
Energy, IT and financials paced the gains that stretched to include all but two of the S&P 500 index's 10 industry groups.
The US stocks opened sharply higher, but the rally was short-lived, as investors remained nervous about the state of the world's largest economy.
The Dow erased a 182-point advance as Citigroup slid 5.5% after its debt ratings were cut, while Exxon Mobil and Chevron retreated almost 3% as oil tumbled below US$33 a barrel.
US stocks advanced for a second straight week after President George W. Bush announced a US$17.4bn rescue plan for the troubled automakers. The Dow was off about 0.6% for the week, while the S&P 500 gained 1% and the Nasdaq rose 1.5%.
GM shares rallied 23% as Bush announced US$13.4 billion in emergency loans for the largest U.S. automaker and rival Chrysler. Ford Motor jumped 3.9%, while car-parts supplier ArvinMeritor climbed 5.9%.
Friday's session was particularly volatile due to options expirations - a quarterly event called "quadruple witching." Light trading volume also contributed to volatility.
Stocks slumped on Monday but the market rallied on Tuesday after the Fed lowered its key interest rate to a range between 0% and 0.25%. The Fed also reaffirmed its plans to use more unconventional methods to try and get the economy back on track.
The Treasuries rallied with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note and the 30-year note both falling to historic lows.
Stocks slumped anew on Wednesday after Morgan Stanley reported a USUS$2.3bn loss. The effects of quadruple witching were apparent on Thursday as investors rushed to reconcile positions ahead of the options expiration. Stocks seesawed for most of the day before falling sharply in the final hour of trade.
"Allowing the US auto industry to collapse is not a responsible course of action," said President Bush in a nationally televised address in the morning, when he unveiled the White House's plan to bail out the troubled Detroit industry.
Speaking in New York on Thursday night, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said he felt a rescue of the ailing car industry should not have been left to the White House. "I did not want to be making this argument - I felt something should be done by Congress," Paulson said.
Yet in light of the fragile state of the economy, it would seem to be an imprudent risk to allow the industry to collapse, he said.
The banking sector was also in focus after Standard & Poor's cut its credit rating or outlook on 12 major international firms, citing ongoing woes in the industry amid deepening troubles in the global economy.
Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo were downgraded or had a banking division downgraded.
Recent government support for the financial services industry is helpful, the economic environment remains challenging and banks can expect "lower profitability levels and significantly higher loan losses in the medium term, the rating agency said.
Shares of Weyerhaeuser Co. fell 9.5% after the paper and building products giant cut its quarterly dividend and costs in response to a slowdown in business.
Shares of Research In Motion (RIM) jumped 11.4% after the smart phone maker surprised investors with a better-than-expected forecast for the fourth quarter.
Oracle shares also advanced after the software giant posted a small drop in second-quarter profits that nonetheless cheered investors who had worried about a sharper slowdown given the global recession.
In other company news, Japanese electronic company Panasonic said that it would acquire its rival Sanyo for up to US$9bn.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell US$2.35 to settle at US$33.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The January contract, which expired on Friday, dropped nearly US$4 to settle below US$37 a barrel in the previous session.
Crude for February delivery rose 58 cents to US$42.25 a barrel.
Prices for US Treasury bonds fell after a big rally in the previous sessions. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note rose to 2.12% from a historic low of 2.07% on Thursday. The 30-year long bond retreated, with a yield of 2.55%.
The dollar rose against the euro to trade at US$1.3838 in afternoon trading. The greenback rose against Japan's yen after the Bank of Japan cut a key interest rate to 0.1% from 0.3%. Gold for February delivery dropped US$23.20 to settle at US$837.4 an ounce.
Shares of oil producers weighed on Europe on Friday, but most stocks came off their session lows after the US stepped up efforts to support the economy with a plan to bail out Detroit's beleaguered automakers.
The pan-European Dow Jones Stoxx 600 index stayed in the red, down 0.5% at 196.32, as losses for oil producers kept the pressure on.
The UK's FTSE 100 index fell 1% to 4,286.93, while Germany's DAX 30 index declined 1.3% to 4,696.70 and the French CAC-40 index was off 0.3% at 3,225.90.
A volatile market ended the day on a flat note, however, managed to hold above the 10k levels. It was the realty stocks which were in the limelight followed by the auto and the Pharma stocks. Finally, the BSE benchmark Sensex ended at 10,099 adding 23 points and the NSE Nifty index ended at 3,07 adding 16 points.
Market breath was positive, 1,481 stocks advanced against 1,036 declines, while, 79 stocks remained unchanged.
Among the 30-components of Sensex, the big gainers were DLF (10%), JP Associates (6%), M&M (4.2%) and Sterlite Ind (4.2%). On the other hand, major losers were Satyam (4%) and ONGC (3.2%).
Shares of C&C Construction rallied by over 6% to Rs214 after the company announced that it won order worth Rs7.81bn in Bihar. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs219 and a low of Rs208 and recorded volumes of over 2,000 shares on BSE.
Shares of Wockhardt Pharma surged by over 3.2% to Rs107 after reports stated that the company was looking for potential buyers for its French subsidiary Negma laboratories to repay debt to investors. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs109 and a low of Rs103 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on BSE.
Shares of DLF surged by over 10% to Rs308 after the company announced that it unveiled its retail plans and aims for a targets of US$1bn revenue in five years.
Reports also stating that the company was planning to add five new international brands to its existing portfolio of its subsidiary DLF brands. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs314 and a low of Rs274 and recorded volumes of over 2,00,00,000 shares on BSE.
Shares of Suzlon Energy ended lower by 0.5% to Rs58. The company announced that it is in talks to sell a 5% stake to Carlyle Group for about US$100mn, stated reports. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs62 and a low of Rs57 and recorded volumes of over 5,00,00,000 shares on BSE.
KEC International advanced by 5% to Rs149 after the company announced that it secured Rs880mn order from Barki Tojik, national electricity company of Tajikistan. The scrip touched an intra-day high of Rs149 and a low of Rs142 and recorded volumes of over 1,00,000 shares on NSE.
The bulls will hope to Jingle all the way in this Christmas-shortened week. Having said that, the euphoria may prove to be short lived and the markets could turn lower again on concerns about a weakening global economic outlook. In the Indian market, we have the F&O expiry which could well show gains for the month.
The Government may drop more hints on its next round of stimulus package, which is also likely to include more rate reductions.
US Market ends mixed on auto bailout news
Better guidance from Oracle and RIMM help Nasdaq end in the green
The US Market ended mixed for the week that ended on Friday, 19 December, 2008. The indices practically finished in the territory where it was since the start of the month. There was once again a spate of bad news but market digested them comfortably. The only sliver lining in the week was perhaps the decision that was reached regarding the bailout of the automobile companies. Auto bailout news, extremely low crude price and earnings cautions dominated the week which was fully in search of direction.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 50.57 points (0.6%) for the week to end at 8,579.11. Tech - heavy Nasdaq gained 23.6 points (1.5%) to end at 1,564.32. S&P 500 gained 8.15 points (0.9%) to end at 887.88.
The week marked a big decision after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the fed funds target rate from 1.00% to a range of 0.00% to 0.25%. In addition, the FOMC directive implied the Fed stands ready to do any, and all, things possible to stimulate the credit market and the economy, including possibly buying a lot of long-term Treasury securities.
Among major earning reports for the week, Goldman Sachs reported its first loss since its inception as a publicly-traded company. Best Buy beat earnings estimates for its third quarter but observed that there has been a dramatic and potentially long-lasting change in consumer behavior.
Among economic reports for the week, industrial production declined 0.6% in November. Housing starts declined 18.9%, marking the largest decline since March 1984, building permits hit a record low, and weekly initial jobless claims held near a 26-year high.
In the US stock market on Friday, 19 December, stocks ended the day on a mixed note. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones industrial average ended down by 25.8 points at 8,579.11, the Nasdaq closed higher by 11.95 points at 1,564.32 and the S&P 500 closed higher by 2.7 points at 886.7.
Automakers got something to cheer on Friday after the news hit the wires that the White House is providing $13.4 billion in TARP funds to automakers as part of an effort to shore up their finances. An additional $4 billion will be available for GM in February. The loans are being made on the contingency that the automakers have a viable plan by March 31 to become profitable.
GM ended as one of the main winners on Friday after climbing up by more than 22%. Twenty four of thirty Dow stocks ended in the green. Citigroup ended as one of the major laggards.
The technology sector managed to outperform on Friday after Oracle and Research In Motion posted in-line earnings results for the latest quarter. Their strength helped the Nasdaq outperform. In other earnings news, Accenture made its way to a new December high after posting better-than-expected results for its latest quarter.
On Friday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for January delivery closed at $33.87/barrel (lower by $2.35 or 6.5%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the day, prices touched a low of $32.4. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 76% since then. For the week, prices ended lower by almost $12.41 or 27%. For this year in 2008, crude prices have dropped 65%.
Friday marked the last trading day for the January contract. Oil for February delivery, now the most active contract, rose 69 cents to end at $42.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. The contract lost 14% during the week.
After a meeting in Oran, Algeria, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels a day from its actual September production level of 29.045 million barrels a day on 17 December, 2008. The production cut is effective on 1 January, 2009. Excluding previously announced cuts, OPEC will actually cut its daily production by 2.2 million barrels from current levels. That constitutes its biggest production cut ever.
At the currency market on Friday, the dollar was up against most major counterparts Thursday, jumping against the euro after the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate and lifted lending rates in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve's easing earlier this week. The dollar index gained 3% in the past two sessions.
For the year, Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down by 35.3%, 41% and 39.5% respectively.
Precious metals turn dull for second straight day
Gold and silver prices end higher for the week
Bullion metal prices ended lower for second straight day on Friday, 19 December, 2008. Bullion metals fell due to the rising dollar. The dollar became a bit strong today after the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate and lifted lending rates in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve's easing earlier this week.. Generally, a stronger dollar pressures demand for dollar-denominated commodities, such as crude oil and gold, which become more expensive for holders of other currencies and also vice versa. The falling crude price also added to further weakness in the bullion metal prices.
On Friday, Comex Gold for February delivery fell $23.2 (2.7%) to close at $837.4 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, gold gained 2.1%. On 17 March, 2008 prices had skyrocketed to a high of $1,034/ounce. But prices have dropped significantly (19%) since then.
For the month of November, gold prices ended higher by 14%. Prior to this, for the month of October, gold had ended lower by 18%. It was the biggest percentage loss for gold since February, 1983.
This year, gold prices are flat till date. Futures have averaged $860 in 2008. The dollar index has gained 6% this year. For the third quarter ended September, 2008, gold prices ended lower by 5.1%. It was the first quarterly loss for the yellow metal since the second quarter in FY 2007. Prior to that, the yellow metal ended second quarter with a marginal gain of 0.7%. For first quarter prices gained 10.7%.
On Friday, Comex silver futures for March delivery fell 28 cents (2.4%) to $10.85 an ounce. For the week, silver gained 63 cents (6%). For the month of November, silver prices had gained 5%. Till date, silver has lost 28% this year.
For the month of October, silver had slipped by 20%. Silver had ended month and quarter of September 2008 with a loss of 10%. For the second quarter, it had gained a paltry 1.4%. Silver had gained 16% in Q1. The metal also had gained for seven straight years.
At the currency market on Friday, the dollar was up against most major counterparts Thursday, jumping against the euro after the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate and lifted lending rates in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve's easing earlier this week.
The Federal Reserve surprised market earlier this week to save the U.S. economy slashing interest rates to just above zero and promising to try an array of new economic measures to stimulate spending. The central bank's Federal Open Market Committee established a target range for the federal funds rate of zero to 0.25%, effectively cutting its key rate for overnight lending to banks by between 0.75% and 1%.
Earlier this year, the weakening dollar and higher global demand for raw materials had led to records this year for commodities including gold. Gold reached a record in March as a U.S. housing slump and credit crisis spurred the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs. In the latest move, the Federal Reserve has cuts its target bank lending rate to 0.25% from 5.25% in September, 2007. The Fed did it in nine steps.
Gold had witnessed the greatest annual gain in twenty eight years by gaining $200/ounce (31%) in FY 2007 as lower interest rates had sent the dollar tumbling, and crude-oil prices rose to a record. Silver had climbed 16% in FY 2007. In 2006, silver had jumped 46% while gold gained 23%.
Crude drops below $34
January contract futures drop drastically on the last day of trading
Crude prices continued to drop substantially even on Friday, 19 December, 2008. Prices fell due to a strong dollar, ongoing global economic crisis and gathering crude stockpiles due to lower energy demand.
On Friday, crude-oil futures for light sweet crude for January delivery closed at $33.87/barrel (lower by $2.35 or 6.5%) on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier in the day, prices touched a low of $32.4. Prices reached a high of $147 on 11 July but have dropped almost 76% since then. For the week, prices ended lower by almost $12.41 or 27%. For this year in 2008, crude prices have dropped 65%.
Friday marked the last trading day for the January contract. Oil for February delivery, now the most active contract, rose 69 cents to end at $42.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Friday. The contract lost 14% during the week
For the month of November, crude prices ended lower by 19.7%. Before this, for the month of October, 2008, crude prices had ended lower by 32.6%, the biggest monthly drop since 1983.
After a meeting in Oran, Algeria, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut 4.2 million barrels a day from its actual September production level of 29.045 million barrels a day on 17 December, 2008. The production cut is effective on 1 January, 2009. Excluding previously announced cuts, OPEC will actually cut its daily production by 2.2 million barrels from current levels. That constitutes its biggest production cut ever.
At the currency market on Friday, the dollar was up against most major counterparts Thursday, jumping against the euro after the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate and lifted lending rates in the wake of the U.S. Federal Reserve's easing earlier this week.
The Energy Information Administration reported earlier during the middle of the week that that U.S. crude supplies rose by 500,000 barrels to stand at 321.3 million barrels during the week ended 12 December, 2008. At 321.3 million barrels, total U.S. crude inventories were 17.5 million barrels above the five-year average and 24.4 million barrels above year-ago levels. The EIA also reported an increase of 1.3 million barrels in gasoline stocks and a rise of 2.9 million barrels in distillate stocks last week.
For the third quarter of the year crude prices ended lower by 28%. This was the biggest quarterly drop since 1991. Before that, crude prices had gained 38% in the second quarter of this year. It was the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. For the month of September, prices registered drop of 13%.
Against this background, January reformulated gasoline gained 1 cent to end at 97 cents a gallon and January heating oil rose 2 cents to $1.39 a gallon.
January natural-gas futures fell 22 cents to end at $5.33 per million British thermal units.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Weekly Stock Ideas - Dec 21 2008
Buy Aban Offshore
Buy Adlabs
Buy Bombay Dyeing
Buy Tata Steel
Buy Reliance Infra
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