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Tuesday, June 21, 2005

Sharekhan Stock Update


Tube Investments of India
Cluster: Emerging Star
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs480
Current market price: Rs334

TII to unlock value in CIFCL
Tube Investments of India (TII), which holds 48.81% in Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company Ltd (CIFCL), has approved the sale of a 15.1% stake in favour of DBS Bank Ltd, Singapore at a negotiated price of Rs150 per share. Singapore-based DBS Bank is looking to acquire a total of 37.5% stake in the Murugappa group-controlled CIFCL.

 
Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Corporation
Cluster: Ugly Duckling
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: Rs126
Current market price: Rs64

Alteration of AOA
Deepak Fertilisers and Petrochemicals Corporation (DFPCL) has informed the stock exchanges regarding the resolutions to be passed at its annual general meeting (AGM) on July 19, 2005. The resolutions to be passed at the AGM also include a special resolution to alter the object clause in the articles of association (AoA) of DFPCL. The object clause defines the businesses that can be carried out by DFP.


Sunday, June 19, 2005

IVRCL - Interview - Businessline


THE stock of IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects has been one of the star performers in the bull market of the past two years as construction sector stocks started to attract investor fancy on a scale never seen in the past. The Hyderabad-based IVRCL offers engineering, procurement and construction services as well as lump-sum turnkey construction projects. Its focus area has been water solution. It has diversified its operations and won major contracts for road projects from the National Highways Authority of India over the past year. IVRCL has been one of the prime beneficiaries from the Government's commitment to boost infrastructure spending. Mr. R. Balarami Reddy, Director of Finance, shared his views on the prospects for the industry and IVRCL in a wide- ranging interview with Business Line.

Excerpts from the interview.

What are the factors that have led to the sharp re-rating of the construction sector stocks, which have risen manifold over the past couple of years?

The construction business has been traditionally looked upon as a cash business. The outlook has now changed. We have become more transparent in its transactions and the government has recognised it as an industry; banks are viewing the sector as a good business to support.

I believe IVRCL has also contributed to this re-rating. The process started after IVRCL announced that two FIIs — ChrysCapital and Citicorp — were investing in the company. The recognition of this sector by foreign investors bolstered positive sentiment. The realisation by the government and others that the country's development rests on the growth of this sector has also contributed to re-rating of stocks from this sector.

How does the acquisition of Hindustan Dorr Oliver fit into IVRCL's growth strategy?

Sixty-five per cent of our turnover is from water-related projects. Hind Dorr Oliver possesses high technical capability in designing water projects and also manufacturing capability for equipment required for these projects.

These were not our strengths. Hind Dorr Oliver was, however not in a position to grow due to lack of execution capability in engineering, procurement and construction and lump sum turnkey projects. We have expertise in these areas. he acquisition would help bring the skill-sets together.

Is the company looking for acquisitions in overseas markets or comfortable with strategic alliances?

We are not desperate to tap overseas immediately. We are comfortable here at present with each construction company having about Rs 3,000 crore worth of orders in hand.

We are familiar with the rules and regulations here. Hind Dorr Oliver and its associate firms, however, have a presence in about 15 countries. This will help us in our foray into other markets.

What is the size of your order book now?

It is Rs 3,400 crore as on date.

Would call the current phase a boom for the infrastructure sector in India? What additional incentives would further boost the infrastructure sector?

The industry has been in a boom phase for the last five years and the same trend can be expected for at least another five years. After that it will be maintenance and revisiting. The industry will not be cyclical and will continue to grow in a steady manner. Several incentives have been put in place. The Government has recognised construction as an industry. But the definition for this industry is still not clear in the Income Tax Act.

Similarly, some government organisations do not accept guarantees from scheduled banks and insist on securing them from PSU banks. These aspects need a re-look.

Do you think the government's budget allocation for infrastructure will help ease the funding situation in the sector?

Definitely, for example, the requirement in Andhra Pradesh for the next 5 years is Rs 46,000 crore and orders have already been issued for Rs 27,000 crore to be completed in the next 2.5-3 years.

For the balance Rs 19,000 crore, some commitments are on from London EXIM Bank and World Bank.

What has been IVRCL's experience in the public-private sector partnership with models such as Build Operate Transfer (BOT), Build Own Operate Transfer (BOOT).

Are these models potential revenue boosters?

These new models have been successful in roads and power sector. However it has not taken off in sewerage/effluent treatment projects. Several aspects still lack clarity.

Toll roads are normally used by high net worth individuals (the rest pay indirectly through buses that they use) who analyse the net benefit derived in terms of time and fuel saved and lesser wear and tear and are prepared to pay the toll. In areas where toll collections are low, Government now supports infrastructure companies with grants (a subsidy-based model), which was not earlier built into these models.

These models are definitely revenue boosters as a regular cash contract has an effective return of 15 per cent; a premium of about 5 per cent is built into such projects to compensate for the higher risk.

What is your geographical spread?

We have covered the southern and western regions and a few areas in the north and east such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Assam. We have no hesitation in taking up projects in any region.

Some projects require you to bid jointly with another entity to qualify. Is the company comfortable with sharing profits in an industry that operates on small margins?

We view joint bids as the cost of qualification. Depending on the requirements of the client we go for joint bids in areas that are not our forte.

What is your view on the trends in steel prices? How are you trying to protect your profitability levels even as material costs continue to be at high levels?

I believe a plus or minus 10 per cent variation in steel prices will continue. Most of our orders, barring a few dated ones for about Rs 250-300 crore, are covered by price escalation contracts. Going forward, there will be no contracts without this clause.

Do price escalation clauses augur well in a competitive bidding environment?

As all companies in case of long-term contracts adopt this rule, no individual company is affected in the bidding process.

Does the company have plans to further increase its equity base?

Not unless we have big BOT projects. Our present debt-equity ratio is a comfortable 0.45 and we have several options to raise funds.

Hindu Businessline Recommendations


BUY   >> Reliance Industries, GIC Housing, Satyam Computers

SELL  >> Tata Coffee

HOLD >> Gujarat Ambuja

Motilal Oswal - Ranbaxy - SELL


Motilal Oswal recommends SELL on Ranbaxy - Target - 770

Download here

Saturday, June 18, 2005

Nectar Lifesciences IPO - AVOID


Way2Wealth recommends AVOID on Nectar Lifesciences IPO.

Download report here

YES Bank - Capital Markets


Lacks track record

Related Tables
4YES Bank : Issue Highlights
YES Bank (YB) is tapping the primary market to increase its paid-up capital base, meet its long-term capital requirement for growth and diversify the equity-holding structure. Knowledge banking is the bank's USP. The bank will focus on, develop and leverage knowledge in specific, high-growth sectors to win and expand client relationships in them.

The bank has already commenced knowledge banking with respect to food and agri-business, life sciences, TMT, and infrastructure. It is also in the process of instituting the knowledge banking in sectors like textiles, select engineering and retailing. It intends to be a significant player in agri-business sector. Already this sector accounts for 18.1% of its advance portfolio.

YB has two operational branches in Mumbai and Delhi, the financial hubs of the country. It plans to open another 30 branches by the end of FY 2006 in major cities, which would lay the foundation for business expansion and brand building.

Strengths

Experienced promoters are the YB's main strength. Its two promoters, Rana Kapoor (MD and CEO) and Ashok Kapur (non-executive chairman) are two highly experienced bankers who have held leadership positions in some of the world's prominent banks in India. In addition, the two promoters have a proven track record as professional entrepreneurs in establishing and managing Rabo India Finance Private Limited (RIFL), a joint venture with Rabobank, Moreover, the three private equity investors (CVC of Citigroup, Chrys Capital and AIF Capital) have prior successful ventures in India.

YB enjoys potential cost and time advantages due to its technology outsourcing arrangement with Wipro, which allows it to arrange just-in-time hardware facilities and human resource for starting branch operations.

Weaknesses

YB will initially focus on corporate and institutional business, which yields lower margin.

Almost 100% of the deposit portfolio consist of term deposits, which raises the cost of deposits and lowers the spread. It will take some time for the bank to significantly lower its cost of deposit.

The focus on emerging sectors can increase its risk profile as failure rates and scope for shakeouts are high in these sectors.

The Indian banking industry is very competitive and established foreign and private banks with equally efficient business plans are bound to give YB a good run for its money.

Valuation

YB has a limited operational history with two fully completed operational quarters and only two branches. For the FY 2005, it has reported an operating loss of Rs 3.64 crore and a net loss of Rs 3.76 crore. Pre-issue book value is Rs 10.6. However, the bank is offering its shares in the price band of Rs 38 to Rs 45. The logic given is that the post-issue book value will be around Rs 20, based on the upper limit of the price band, giving a price-to-book-value ratio of 2.25, which is considered to be in line with the industry standards keeping in mind the growth prospects of the bank. Some smart begging the question, indeed. Price the shares even higher and the post-issue book value will look even more attractive!

Holdings of promoters and certain foreign investors are above the prescribed limit for ownership in private banks specified by the Reserve Bank of India. However, 49% of the shareholding, held by the promoter group and Rabo International Holding (RIH), has a five-year lock-in (of which four years still remain) and the three private equity investors have a three-year lock-in period (of which two years are still to go). During the lock-in period, there will not be any impact of these guidelines. Hence, no offloading of shares by these groups in this period is expected

RIH has shown considerable intent in maintaining its holding in YB at 20%, which will come down to 14.81% on post-issue equity based on current RIH holding of 4 crore equity shares. RBI has given RIH the required approval to maintain 20% post-issue holding. YB has allocated 3.5 crore, equity shares (50% of current IPO) to qualified institutional buyers (QIB) segment and RIH needs to buy further 1.4 crore shares by subscribing to the issue and subsequently through open- market purchases to maintain its post-issue stake at 20%. This could provide post-issue support to the scrip, provided RIH does not get hefty allotment in IPO.

YB offers a good business plan and financial strength of some major global investors to back it up. But that's the only thing it can offer at this point of time. When dealing with a bank for any purpose, track record is one of the very important criteria, which YB cannot offer.

YES Bank - IPO Analysis - Equitymaster Report


YES Bank IPO Analysis - Equitymaster report - Download here

Thursday, June 16, 2005

Geometric - Equitymaster Report


As per an analyst note sent by Geometric Software, the management has estimated the company¿s 1QFY06 consolidated revenues to show a decline on a QoQ basis. This, the management has indicated taking into consideration that several projects, which were scheduled to commence in the first quarter, have now been shifted to the next quarter, i.e., 2QFY06. The revenue and profit growth guidance has been, thus, revised downwards by 5% to 8% each.

In the recent analyst meet held after the company had announced its FY05 results, while the management had projected some kind of weakness in 1QFY06 due to an adjustment in resource requirements by one of its major customers, it had anticipated a pick up in other activities. However, now with the postponement of some projects to the next quarter, and a delay in completing a major fixed price contract, the company is likely to report a decline in revenues during this quarter, on a sequential basis.

Investors should note that this kind of problem is duly visible with small companies like Geometric that have a resource crunch and follow a project-based model whereby it requires new projects to fill up the completed space as and when a contract gets over. If this does not happen, i.e., when a project gets over and there is no other project in the pipeline, the utilisation reduces thus, impacting the company on the margins front. In another case, as is being seen now, if the company delays the execution of an ongoing project, it has to leave some revenues on the table, as there is then an employee scarcity to meet requirements of a new project. In our recent interaction with the management, it had indicated that the company has initiated several annuity-based contracts of late and that this will provide them with a better visibility on the revenues front. However, annuity based contracts will still take some time to provide sustainable contribution to the company¿s topline and, to that extent, investors will have to bear the quarterly volatility on Geometric¿s performance.

This change warrants us to re-look at our projections for the full-year. Our current estimates indicate a profit growth of 59% in FY06, which would now have to be revised downwards. At this growth, the EPS for FY06 stands at Rs 39 per share. Thus, at the current price of Rs 570, the stock¿s price to earnings multiple is at 14.5 times FY06E earnings, which is at the higher end of the valuation spectrum. However, considering the strong growth in FY07, the price to earnings ratio works out to 10 times, which is still attractive.

In January 2005, we had recommended a buy on the stock with a target price of Rs 750 in the long term. The stock has witnessed a rise of 46% since then. While we believe that the valuations are rich from a short-term perspective, long-term investors can continue holding on to the stock, as we maintain our recommendation. There is, in fact, no need to panic from this one quarter of downward revision in the guidance.

Motilal Oswal - Tata Tea - BUY - 708


Motilal Oswal is recommending Buy On Tata Tea @ 581 With Target Price 708

Download the report here

Wednesday, June 15, 2005

Motilal Oswal - YES Bank - IPO


Motilal Oswal recommends SUBSCRIBE on YES Bank

Download the report here

Geometric Software - Motilal Oswal - BUY


Geometric Software - Motilal Oswal - BUY -

Target >> 670 in 12 months

Exide Industries - Indiainfoline - BUY


Indiainfoline puts a BUY on Exide Industries. Download the report here

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Equitymaster - YES Bank IPO - Snippet


We believe that the bank holds potential for effectively catering to a niche corporate segment (especially due its novel strategy) and utilising the low operating overhead approach (by not focusing too much on retail) to bolster its operating margins. Besides given the credibility of its management and commitment of Rabo Bank (which has one the highest credit ratings in the world), Yes Bank seems to have a lot coming its way. All said, it would be a matter of time before the bank's credentials are established. Also, despite catering to the high-end customers, inability to garner low cost deposits has dampened the bank's business per employee ratio as compared to that of its peers. The valuations of the bank (at the higher end of the band) look attractive when compared to its peers in the private banking space. But for long-term investment we would put it in the high-risk category.

Subex Systems - HOLD


Subex Systems - HOLD - Way2Wealth - Download here

LIC Housing Finance - Equitymaster StockSelect Report


LIC Housing Finance - SELL - EquityMaster - Download here