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Friday, March 19, 2010

Joy of being stable!


Being born in a stable does not make one a horse- Arthur Wellesley.

The main indices managed to gallop towards the end following S&P’s upgrade of India’s ratings outlook. The key indices might just be able to stretch the winning streak a little bit more today. But remember, all stocks need to participate on the ‘stable’ outlook.

We expect a positive but sedate start and a choppy session. Volume may remain low, as has been the case lately. Select stocks will remain in the spotlight owing to the newsflow. Reports mention chances of a dollar carry trade benefiting the Indian market, similar to the yen carry trade a couple of years ago.

Cues from global markets are neither spectacular nor weak. Concerns over Greece prevail amid lack of cohesion in the EU. The nation now may resort to aid from the IMF. Worries over stringent new norms for Wall Street banks have ebbed even as the war of words persists between the US and China over yuan revaluation.

Wall Street had an indecisive session. The Dow rose for eighth straight day while the S&P ended in red. European stocks were weighed down by uncertainty over Greece. Asian markets are mixed.

Barring a few days, market breadth has been generally negative even on days when the main indices have advanced. This is a cause for concern as in a low-volume, shallow market there is always a chance that the market’s gain may not accurately reflect the reality. So, don’t get carried away if the Nifty breaches 5300 or the Sensex surpasses 18000.

Apply your mind and do your homework before taking a plunge into any stock, as valuations are not cheap. Though the key indices are nearing their previous 52-week highs, bulls don't appear to be entirely convinced. This leaves the market vulnerable to fresh selling.

FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Thursday at Rs4.85bn on a provisional basis. Local funds were net sellers of Rs531.5mn, according to figures published on the NSE's web site. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers of Rs11.06bn. On Wednesday, FIIs were net buyers of Rs11.71bn in the cash segment, as per the SEBI web site. Mutual Funds were net buyers of Rs328mn on the same day.

Indian markets ended with modest gains on Thursday with the key indices getting a late boost from news that Standard & Poor’s has raised India’s outlook to stable from negative.

If you take out the last 15 minutes of trade, there was hardly anything to rejoice for the bulls. The key indices were stuck in a range for most part of the day after three successive days of gains. Global cues were rather sluggish amid renewed worries over Greece.

It was a relatively a dull day as bulls seemed to take a breather after a three day broad-based rally. After opening with a positive bias, markets turned lackluster and were unable to build on to the opening gains.

The BSE Sensex marginally added 29 points to end at 17,519 after touching a high of 17,548 and a low of 17,417. The NSE Nifty added 14 points to end at 5,246.

In Asia, the Nikkei in Japan was down 1%, while Australia's S&P/ASX gained by 0.2%. Shanghai SE Composite advanced by 1.9% and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was down 0.3%.

In Europe, stocks were trading with a negative bias. The DAX in Germany was down 0.2%, the CAC 40 index in France was down 0.3% and the FTSE in the UK was down 0.2%.

Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Bank index was the top gainer, adding 0.6%, followed by the Teck index that was up 0.6% and the BSE Metal index was up 0.5%. The BSE Mid-Cap and BSE Small-Cap index added 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.

Outside the frontline indices, the big gainers in the broader market were Indian Hotels, TTML, Idea, Welspun Guj and IRB Infra. On the other hand, losers included Hindustan Copper, RCF, Moser Baer and Tulip Tele.

Shares of Tata Teleservices advanced 4.5% to Rs24.65 after the company announced that the board of directors approved sale of 100% equity shares held by the company in 21st Century Infra Tele Ltd to Wireless - TT Info Services Ltd.

The towers have been valued at Rs52 Lacs per tower with an Enterprise Value of Rs13.18bn. This transaction will result in a net cash inflow to the Company (subject to adjustment at the time of payment) in excess of Rs9bn.

Shares of Bajaj Electricals advanced by 3% to end at Rs212.5 after ~3.67mn equity shares, or 3.8% of its equity, changed hands in 6 block deals on the BSE. The scrip opened at Rs207 it touched an intra-day high of Rs219 and a low of Rs207 and recorded volumes of over 7.7mn shares on BSE.

United Bank of India, the public sector lender started trading with healthy gains on the bourse. The stock got listed at Rs75 per share as against its issue price of Rs66. Finally, the stock ended at Rs68.80 translating in to a premijm of 7.5%. The state-run bank fixed the issue price of its IPO at Rs66 per share - the upper end of its price band - raising Rs3.25bn through the issue. The IPO was subscribed over 33 times.

Fedders Lloyd's announced that its Power Division has bagged orders worth Rs2.57bn from M.P. Madhya Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Co. Ltd., Bhopal. Shares of Fedders Lloyd shot up by over 5% to end at Rs80. The scrip opened at Rs77 it touched an intra-day high of Rs87 and a low of Rs77 and recorded volumes of over 0.11mn shares on BSE.

Shares of Punj Lloyd slipped by 0.5% to end at Rs172 after media reports stated that the IT department raided the offices of Punj Lloyd. Later, the company’s spokeswoman said that the Income Tax officials visited Punj Llyod Ltd.’s “sites” for a “routine inquiry,” today and we are fully co-operating,” with the tax department, she added.

HDIL clarified that it has not raised any money selling shares to institutions, MD Sarang Wadhawan was quoted as saying on a news channel. This news is totally baseless, he added. Media reports had stated that the company shelved its follow-on QIP after receiving tepid response from investors.

Shares of HDIL ended flat at Rs303. The scrip opened at Rs302 it touched an intra-day high of Rs306 and a low of Rs299 and has recorded volumes of over 1.6mn shares on BSE.