High volatility expected ahead of June 2007 derivatives expiry

Trend in global equities will continue to dictate share price movements on the domestic bourses. Volatility is likely to be high ahead of expiry of June 2007 derivatives contracts on Thursday, 28 June 2007.

Indian stocks have been closely tracking global equities since the past two years or so. A number of Asian markets are hovering at near their record highs which they had scaled recently. With US interest rates expected to be held steady at the 27-28 June 2007 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, investors will be looking to the Federal Reserve's assessment of the state of the US economy.

The only major Q4 result left which of ONGC will be out on Monday, 25 May 2007. ONGC’s results for the quarter ended March 2007 are likely to be disappointing due to a surge in the subsidy burden

Other firms announcing Q4 results next week include Jet Airways, Warren Tea, Munjal Auto, Kirloskar Electric, Ansal Properties & Infrastructure, Orient Ceramics, Bharat Earth Movers (BEML), Amrutanjan, Birla Kennametal and Celebrity Fashions.

Along with Q4 results, the board of Jet Airways will consider a proposal to raise up to $400 million by way of a rights issue of equity shares. At the beginning of the week, BEML will unveil the price band for its forthcoming follow-up public offer which opens for subscription on 27 June 2007.

The Q1 June 2007 corporate earnings season will kickstart from less than a month from now and, over the next few days, traders are likely to build positions based on Q1 results expectations. The Q4 corporate earnings were strong which had helped trigger a solid surge in domestic bourses since early April 2007.

Over the next few months, the progress of the July-September monsoon will hold key. The weather office said in April 2007 that this year’s monsoon was likely to be 95% of the long-term average, with a 5% margin of error. The annual monsoon is vital for India’s economic health as it is the main source of water for agriculture, which generates more than a fifth of the gross domestic product