Ventura Securities report on Jindal Saw:
Key Investment Highlights
Strong Demand Scenario
Economic growth in emerging markets is driving oil and gas demand thereby creating readymade markets for its products. The period between 2005 – 2010 (E) is expected to exhibit a CAGR of 1.9% and 3.1% for oil and gas respectively. The natural fallout would be demand for pipelines which is estimated to be at USD 56 billion over the next five years.
Diversified business model: Balanced approach
JSL has a diversified product range having presence in value as well as volume driven product lines. While SAW pipe is more of a volume driven product having good margins, DI pipes & Seamless pipes are segments with higher realizations & better margins.
Increasing focus on Seamless & DI pipes: Margin accretive
JSL is ramping up its Seamless pipes capacity from 100,000 MTPA to 250,000 MTPA which is expected to be completed by July’08. Further it is also adding two additional lines in the DI pipes segment which would increase the production of DI pipes from 120,000 MTPA to 180,000 MTPA. These additions would in turn add to the margins & profitability.
Strong Order Book provides earnings visibility
JSL’s Order Book provides earnings visibility. Currently the company has an order book worth Rs 56 billion, which is executable over a period of 12 months. The overseas orders contribute around 85% to the order book.
Business Model
The business operations of JSL are structured into four Strategic Business Units (SBUs) which include Saw pipes, Seamless Tubes & Pipes, DI Pipes & the US operations. While the first three SBUs manufacture & market LSAW, HSAW, Seamless & DI pipes respectively, the last SBU acts as a dedicated marketing arm catering to the US market. Thus the company has a diversified product range which mitigates the business risks in the form of being diversified across various user segments (energy transportation sector, E&P activities & industrial applications and water & sewage transportation). JSL has presence in value as well as volume driven product lines. While SAW pipe is more of a volume driven product having decent margins, DI pipes & Seamless pipes are high profitable segments having better realization & margins.
Product Mix: To focus more on higher margin products
Although majority of the revenues would continue to generate from the SAW pipe segment in the coming years, JSL’s focus on higher margin products viz. DI pipes & Seamless pipes would result in expansion of margins & de-risking its business. JSL is planning to ramp up the production in DI pipes by adding additional two lines which will enhance the production from current 120,000 tons to 180,000 tons. Further the seamless pipe capacity which is around 100,000 tons will be increased to 250,000 tons. The incremental capacity is likely to be completed by July’08. Though we expect majority of the revenues to be contributed by SAW pipe segment & US operations in the near future, we expect the revenues from Seamless & DI pipes to increase gradually in the coming years.
Strong Order Book Provides Earnings Visibility
At present, JSL has a healthy order book worth Rs 56 billion. Of the total orders booked, Rs 28.60 billion cater to the Indian operations wherein the exports constitute nearly 80% of the order book whereas the domestic orders contribute the balance. The balance order book worth Rs 27.40 billion caters to the US operations, which is targeted entirely for the US market. The orders are expected to be executed within the next 9 to 12 months.
Impressive Financial Performance
The company’s net sales for Q2FY07 jumped by 33% to Rs 12.69 billion from Rs 9.53 billion in Q2FY06. Its PAT for the quarter went up by 49% to Rs 70 crore from Rs 47 crore. For H1FY07, net sales grew to Rs 24.62 billion, up 39%. The company showed an impressive growth of 50% in PAT, to Rs 1.30 billion from Rs 500 million in H1FY06. The EPS jumped significantly, to Rs 27.0 for H1FY07 from Rs 18.1 in H1FY06. For H1FY07, the company reported an operating profit of Rs 2.83 billion, up 42%. Margins were up 30 bps from 11.2% in H1FY06 to 11.5% in H1FY07, on the back of volume growth & better realization.
Valuation & Recommendation
The burgeoning oil and gas demand should benefit pipe industry as more and more new pipe lines projects are being announced. JSL today is accredited by almost all oil and gas majors and thus is automatically qualified to bid for most of the projects. These approvals, along with its diversified business model, shall enable the Company to reap the robust demand prevalent over the next 5 years. At the CMP of Rs 606, the stock is trading at 10.4x the FY08e earnings of Rs 58 & and 8.0x its FY09e its FY09e earnings of Rs 75.5. With the company expected to increase its margins in the coming years coupled with the strong order book & the robust demand likely to prevail over the next five years, we recommend the investors to BUY the stock at the CMP with a price target of Rs 850, an upside of 40% from the current levels for 15 to 18 months horizon.