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Sunday, July 14, 2013

Hattrick of gains for Indian mkts; Q1 season raises hopes after Infy nos

Indian markets settled with decent gains for third straight week led by recovery in rupee, Infy nos and global rally. The Sensex shut shop gaining 2.37% while the Nifty rose 2.4% for the week ended July 12, 2013.

Major Headlines for the week:
India’s forex reserves decline by $3.2 bn
IndusInd Bank Q1 net profit In-Line
Infosys Q1 nos beats street; Stock surges 15%
Car sales fall 9% in month of June

Indian indices:
Welcome to the ‘Weekly Market Wrap’ for July 12, 2013. This was the Twenty eighth trading week of 2013 for the Indian markets which closed with marginal gains owing to mixed cues. Key benchmark indices logged third weekly gain in a row in the week ended Friday, July 12, 2013 after the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke on Wednesday, July 10, 2013, said that a highly accommodative monetary policy is needed for the US economy for the foreseeable future. Back home, IT major Infosys reiterating its revenue guidance for the current year on Friday, July 12, 2013 also boosted sentiment. Shares of TCS, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Dr Reddy's Laboratories scaled to record high during the week. The market gained in three out of five trading sessions in the week. The market gained in three out of five trading sessions in the week. The S&P BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices underperformed the Sensex, rising by 0.94% and 0.79% each.
The S&P BSE Sensex rose 462.65 points or 2.37% to 19,958.47 and the NSE Nifty rose 141.10 points or 2.4% to 6009.
Car sales fell an annual 9% in June as demand continued to suffer due to rising ownership costs and sluggish economic growth. Domestic passenger car sales were 1,39,632 units in June this year from 1,53,450 units in the same month of 2012, with demand dropping for the eighth straight month.
India's trade deficit narrowed in June to $12.24 billion from a 7-month high, helped by a slowdown in gold imports, which should ease pressure on the current account balance and the beleaguered rupee.
Weekly market trend from July 08, 2013 - July 12, 2013:
Markets fell on Monday (July 08, 2013); as the rupee's slump to a record low sparked fear of continued FII outflows and cemented expectations the central bank would avoid cutting interest rates. The BSE Sensex fell 0.88% and the Nifty was down by 0.96%. Markets slumped as overseas investors sold away shares in the emerging markets and shifted stance to the developed economies like US after robust jobs data. The Sensex shed 171.05 points to close at 19324.77 while Nifty slipped 56.35 points to end at 5811.55.
Indian shares rose on Tuesday (July 09, 2013); recovering from downfall in previous sessions, as blue chips recovered from previous declines. The BSE Sensex rose 0.59% and the broader Nifty was up by 0.82%. The recovery in the rupee also boosted market sentiment. However, markets pared gains in the afternoon session on account of profit-booking witnessed in automobile and mining stocks. The S&P BSE Sensex wrapped trade at 19439.48, up by 114.71 points while the NSE Nifty rose 47.45 points to settle at 5859.00.
India's benchmarks ended in red on Wednesday (July 10, 2013); as IndusInd Bank fell after its quarterly earning disappointed investors, sparking caution about the upcoming reporting season. The BSE Sensex fell 0.75% and the Nifty was down by 0.72%. Benchmark indices oscillated on both the sides of equador amid volatility weighed down by Oil&Gas, Auto, PSU and Realty shares. The Sensex shed 145.36 points to close at 19294.12 while Nifty slipped 42.30 points to end at 5816.70.
Markets rose 2% on Thursday (July 11, 2013); to their highest levels since early June as blue-chips staged a broad recovery from recent falls on hopes that the U.S. monetary stimulus would not end as early as feared. The BSE Sensex rose 1.98% and the broader Nifty was up by 2.04%. Markets posted sharp rally and traded in green terrain for the entire day with 50-share Nifty rising to its highest level since June 10. The S&P BSE Sensex wrapped trade at 19676.06, up by 381.94 points while the NSE Nifty rose 118.40 points to settle at 5935.10
Indian Indices rose over 1% to their highest levels since May 31 on Friday (July 12, 2013); after Infosys defied analysts' estimates and posted steady dollar revenue growth for fiscal 2014. The BSE Sensex rose 1.44% and the broader Nifty was up by 1.25%. Markets continued northward journey after Infosys, the company with fifth-highest weightage on the Sensex defied analysts' estimates and posted steady dollar revenue growth for fiscal 2014. The S&P BSE Sensex wrapped trade at 19958.47, up by 282.41 points while the NSE Nifty rose 73.90 points to settle at 6009.00.
Global indices:
All the global markets closed green zone. Top gainers: DAX100 rose 4.52%, CAC40 rose 3.07%. Nasdaq was up by 2-84%, FTSE100 was up by 2.63%, Hang Seng rose 2.03%, Shanghai Composite up by 1.61% and Nikkei was up by 1.37%
Sectoral and stock screening:
Among the 13 sectoral indices- the topmost gainers were - BSE IT which rose 8.93%, BSE TECk up 7.89% and BSE CG gained 4.45%. The topmost losers were - BSE Bankex which fell 47.65%, BSE Auto down 2,28% and BSE Oil&Gas slipped 1.30%.
Looking at the 'A' group stocks, the top three gainers of the week were – Reliance Power up by 17.27%, Infosys up by 16.52% and TTK Prestige up by 16.40%. The top three losers of the week were - Gitanjali Gems which fell by 30.10%, MMTC fell by 30.01% and L&T fell by 28.62%.
FII/MF activity:
The foreign institutional investors ( FIIs) have been the net buyers of the Indian stocks to the tune of Rs0.4 crore as on July 10, 2012 and the domestic investors sold Indian shares worth a net of Rs488.7 crore on July 05, 2013.
Market Outlook for the coming week!
In the coming week the stock markets will react to the key economic events specially on Monday, July 15, 2013, to the data on industrial production and consumer price inflation which will be announced after trading hours on Friday, July 12, 2013. The Q1 results season has just begun and focus will remain on earnings.
The next batch of Q1 June 2013 results, data on wholesale price inflation for June 2013, trend in investment activity of foreign institutional investors, trend in global markets and movement of rupee and crude oil prices will dictate near term trend on the bourses.
Results in the coming week- HDFC Bank, TCS, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Reliance Industries, Bajaj Auto and HDFC will unveil Q1 results.
Investors will keenly track movement of crude oil prices.
The government will announce data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for June 2013 on Monday, July 15, 2013. WPI inflation is seen inching up a bit at 4.8% in June 2013, from 4.7% in May 2013.
On the global front, Chinese data on second-quarter GDP growth and June industrial production and US figures on retail sales and industrial production are scheduled for release among other reports.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to deliver testimony on monetary policy in Washington on July 17 and 18, 2013.