First quarter earnings, macroeconomic data in focus

The stock market will on Monday, 15 July 2013, react to the data on industrial production and consumer price inflation which will be announced after trading hours on Friday, 12 July 2013. The next batch of Q1 June 2013 results, data on wholesale price inflation for June 2013, trend in investment activity of foreign institutional investors, trend in global markets and movement of rupee and crude oil prices will dictate near term trend on the bourses.

The Q1 results season has just begun and focus will remain on earnings. As per the results calendar, HDFC Bank unveils Q1 results on Wednesday, 17 July 2013. TCS, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank unveil Q1 results on Thursday, 18 July 2013. Reliance Industries, Bajaj Auto and HDFC unveil Q1 results on Friday, 19 July 2013.

Investors will keenly track movement of crude oil prices. US crude oil prices futures hit 15-month high above $107 a barrel on 11 July 2013 after US stockpiles fell for a second week. A weak rupee and higher crude oil prices could worsen India's current account deficit situation as India imports 80% of its oil requirement.

Industrial production is seen rising a tepid 1.5% in May 2013, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. Industrial production had risen 2.3% in April 2013. The government unveils industrial production data for May 2013 after trading hours on Friday, 12 July 2013.

Inflation based on the combined consumer price index (CPI) of urban and rural India is projected at 9.3% in June 2013, same as in May 2013, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. CPI inflation had eased to 9.31% in May 2013 from 9.39% in April 2013. The government unveils CPI data for June 2013 after trading hours on Friday, 12 July 2013.

The government unveils data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for June 2013 on Monday, 15 July 2013. WPI inflation is seen inching up a bit at 4.8% in June 2013, from 4.7% in May 2013, as per the median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market.

On the global front, Chinese data on second-quarter GDP growth and June industrial production and US figures on retail sales and industrial production are scheduled for release among other reports.

China's finance minister on 12 July 2013 said economic growth will likely average 7% this year. The projection is lower than the government's target of 7.5%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to deliver testimony on monetary policy in Washington on 17 and 18 July 2013. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting released on 10 July 2013 showed that while "several members judged that a reduction in asset purchases would likely soon be warranted," many want to see further improvement in the labor market before reducing the central bank's $85 billion-a-month quantitative easing program. The Fed currently buys $85 billion a month in government and mortgage bonds in an effort to keep interest rates low and stimulate economic growth. At a press conference following the June 18-19 meeting, Bernanke said the central bank could start reducing its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases later this year if the economy continues to improve in line with its forecasts.