Sensex, Nifty scale over one-week closing highs

Amid a volatile trading session, key benchmark indices managed to edge higher on speculation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will cut its key policy rate at its monetary policy review early next week to spur economic growth after the latest data showed that industrial production grew by lower-than-expected 4.1% in February 2012. The barometer index, BSE Sensex, and the 50-unit S&P CNX Nifty attained their highest closing level in more than one week. The Sensex jumped 133.22 points or 0.77%, off close to 63 points from the day's high and up about 56 points from the day's low. The market breadth was strong.

The Sensex has fallen 71.58 points or 0.41% so far in April 2012 (till 12 April 2012). The index has surged 1,877.70 points or 12.15% in calendar 2012 so far (till 12 April 2012). From a 52-week low of 15,135.86 on 20 December 2011, the Sensex has risen 2196.76 points or 14.51%. From a 52-week high of 19,737.33 on 13 April 2011, the Sensex has lost 2404.71 points or 12.18%.



Coming back to today's trade, index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) edged higher after the company said gas output is normal at its KG D6 block off the east coast after Wednesday's quake in Indonesia. FMCG stocks moved up for the third straight day on reports that monsoon may arrive on time this year. FMCG giant Hindustan Unilever, cigarette major ITC and food products firm Nestle India hit record highs. Interest rate sensitive banking stocks gained ahead of Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review on Tuesday, 17 April 2012.

IT pivotals fell across the board ahead of the IT bellwether Infosys' Q4 results tomorrow, 13 April 2012. Shares of three air carriers fell after aviation minister Ajit Singh told reporters today that the Union Cabinet meeting today, 12 April 2012, did not take up the proposal to let foreign airlines buy stake in local carriers. Metal stocks rose across the board as global metal prices rose.

The market edged higher in early trade on mostly higher Asian stocks. Key benchmark indices regained strength in morning trade after trimming initial gains. A bout of volatility was witnessed in mid-morning trade as key benchmark indices trimmed gains after surging to hit fresh intraday highs soon after industrial production data hit the market at 11:00 IST. The market surged to hit fresh intraday high in early afternoon trade. Key benchmark indices pared gains in afternoon trade. The market regained strength in mid-afternoon trade.

The BSE Sensex rose 133.22 points or 0.77% to 17,332.62, its highest closing level since 4 April 2012. The index jumped 195.75 points at the day's high of 17,395.15 in early afternoon trade. The index gained 77.47 points at the day's low of 17,276.87 in early trade.

The S&P CNX Nifty rose 50 points or 0.96% to 5,276.85, its highest closing level since 4 April 2012. The Nifty hit a high of 5,290.60 in intraday trade. The Nifty hit a low of 5,246.75 in intraday trade.

The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong. On BSE, 1,712 shares gained and 1,100 shares fell. A total of 135 shares were unchanged.

BSE clocked turnover of Rs 2202 crore, lower than Rs 2383.42 crore on Wednesday, 11 April 2012.

From the 30-share Sensex pack, 23 stocks rose while rest of them fell. ONGC (down 1.27%), DLF (down 1.09%) and NTPC (down 0.09%), edged lower from the Sensex pack.

Index heavyweight Reliance Industries (RIL) gained 1.36% to Rs 742.90 after the company said gas output is normal at its KG D6 block off the east coast after Wednesday's quake in Indonesia. RIL is seen reporting weak Q4 earnings due to falling refining margins and reduced output from its KG-D6 gas blocks.

RIL early last week said its Jamnagar manufacturing unit is planning to take Maintenance and Inspection (M&I) shutdown of one of the diesel hydro treating unit for approximately three weeks duration from 2 April 2012. Routine activity of catalyst replacement is planned to be carried out during this shutdown and the opportunity will also be utilized to carry out revamp jobs so as to further enhance BS-IV grade diesel production capability from DTA refinery, RIL said. Remaining units of refinery, including crude processing units, are planned to operate at full throughput during this period, RIL said.

IT pivotals fell across the board ahead of the IT bellwether Infosys' Q4 results tomorrow, 13 April 2012. India's third largest software services exporter by revenues Wipro fell 1.27%. The company last week said rating agency Standard and Poor (S&P) has upgraded the long term corporate credit rating of Wipro from BBB (outlook positive) to BBB+ (outlook stable).

India's second largest software services exporter by revenue Infosys declined 1.87% and was the top loser from the Sensex pack. The company announces Q4 March 2012 results tomorrow, 13 April 2012. India's largest software services exporter by revenue Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) shed 0.88%.

Shares of three air carriers fell after aviation minister Ajit Singh told reporters today that the Union Cabinet meeting today, 12 April 2012, did not take up the proposal to let foreign airlines buy stake in local carriers. SpiceJet (down 1.90%), Kingfisher Airlines (down 2.52%) and Jet Airways (India) (down 2.78%), edged lower. Singh told reporters that the cabinet has sought more clarity on the proposal and that it may consider the proposal next week. He added that the industry ministry may submit fresh details on the proposal.

Currently, India does not permit foreign airlines to buy stake in domestic airlines, although foreign investors are allowed to hold 49%. The cash-strapped Indian airlines are facing several problems including rising fuel prices and strong competition. The civil aviation ministry had in January recommended that the government allow foreign airlines to buy stakes of up to 49% in Indian carriers. The proposal, however, needs approvals from the trade ministry and the Cabinet to become law.

Metal stocks rose across the board as global metal prices rose. Jindal Steel & Power (up 4.86%), Sterlite Industries (up 3.91%), Hindalco Industries (up 3.02%), Sesa Goa (up 2.98%), Sail (up 1.95%), JSW Steel (up 1.88%), Nalco (up 1.52%), Tata Steel (up 1.24%), Bhushan Steel (up 0.85%), NMDC (up 0.68%) and Coal India (up 0.38%), edged higher. LMEX, a gauge of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, rose 0.42% on Wednesday, 11 April 2012.

US aluminum major, Alcoa posted on Wednesday a surprise first-quarter adjusted profit of 10 cents a share, better-than-expected revenue growth and affirmed its forecast that global aluminum demand would increase 7% in 2012.

FMCG stocks moved up for the third straight day on reports that monsoon may arrive on time this year. FMCG major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) rose 1.13% to Rs 420, with the stock gaining for the fourth straight day. The stock hit a record high of Rs 421.70 today.

HUL and entities of Piramal Realty (Ajay Piramal Group) have signed an agreement for assignment of HUL's leasehold rights of the land and building named "Gulita" situated at Worli Sea Face, Mumbai, for a transaction value of Rs 452.50 crore. The consideration includes both fixed and variable components, HUL said after trading hours on Wednesday, 4 April 2012.

Cigarette maker ITC rose 2.16% to Rs 234.05. The stock hit a record high of Rs 234.50 today.

Nestle India rose 1.07% to Rs 4917.95. The stock hit a record high of Rs 4974.95 today.

Among other FMCG stocks, Dabur India (up 4.6%), Tata Global Beverages (up 2.33%), Godrej Consumer Products (up 0.22%) and Colgate-Palmolive (India) (up 0.01%), edged higher.

Report suggested that conditions indicate that the monsoon season will arrive in India by the first week of June 2012, which is considered on time. FMCG firms derive substantial sales from rural India. Good monsoon may boost farm incomes and consumer spending. India achieved a bumper farm output in 2011 largely because of sufficient monsoon rains.

Interest rate sensitive banking stocks also gained ahead of Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy review on Tuesday, 17 April 2012. India's biggest private sector bank in terms of net profit, ICICI Bank, rose 1.53%. India's second largest bank by net profit HDFC Bank, gained 0.79%.

India's largest bank by branch network State Bank of India, rose 2.95%. The bank's Managing Director A Krishna Kumar on Saturday, 7 April 2012, said that the bank is aiming for growth of 20% to 25% in credit and deposit in financial year that began April 2012. The bank is expecting a major improvement in its asset quality for the recently ended fiscal year, he said.

Among other banking stocks, Canara Bank (up 3.76%), Axis Bank (up 3.25%), IndusInd Bank (up 2.13%), Bank of Baroda (up 1.61%), Punjab National Bank (up 1.34%), Bank of India (up 1.32%), Kotak Mahindra Bank (up 1.13%), IDBI Bank (up 0.94%) and Federal Bank (up 0.37%), edged higher.

India's largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India rose 3.13% to Rs 1,312.60 after the company today, 12 April 2012, unveiled industry's first Life Utility Vehicle -- Ertiga. Maruti said Ertiga strengthens its product portfolio and also creates an all new Life Utility segment at an attractive price point. Designed primarily for India at Suzuki, Japan, Ertiga represents aspirations of young urban Indian families that are active and connected, Maruti said. The company further said that India is the first market to sell Ertiga, to be followed by other South East Asian markets.

Ertiga is launched in both petrol and diesel variants. Ertiga will have a total of six models, with ex-showroom price in Delhi ranging from Rs 5.89 lakh at the bottom end and Rs 8.45 lakh at the top end.

Kingfisher Airlines clocked highest volume of 2.22 crore shares on BSE. Cals Refineries (2.10 crore shares), SpiceJet (1.08 crore shares), Dazzel Confindive (63.27 lakh shares) and IVRCL (61.63 lakh shares), were the other volume toppers in that order.

State Bank of India clocked highest turnover of Rs 141.89 crore on BSE. Indraprastha Gas (Rs 53.35 crore), Housing Development and Infrastructure (Rs 52.42 crore), IVRCL (Rs 44.85 crore) and Kingfisher Airlines (Rs 44.76 crore), were the other turnover toppers in that order.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth Rs 445.77 crore on Wednesday, 11 April 2012, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. Their outflow totaled Rs 1043.86 crore in three trading sessions from 9 to 11 April 2012.

Industrial production rose by a smaller-than-expected 4.1% in February 2012, with the government also sharply revising downward the industrial production growth for January 2012 citing wrong sugar output data. Industrial production growth for January was revised downward to 1.14% from the 6.8% expansion reported earlier.

Manufacturing output, which has a 75.5% weight in the index of industrial production, rose 4% from a year earlier in February. It had risen a revised 1.4% on year in January compared with 8.5% reported earlier. Electricity production increased 8% from a year earlier in February while capital goods output rose 10.6%.

The next major trigger for the market is Q4 March 2012 and year ending March 2012 (FY 2012) earnings. Investors will focus on the guidance provided by the management for the year ending March 2013 (FY 2013) to gauge the earnings outlook.

IT bellwether Infosys announces Q4 March 2012 results tomorrow, 13 April 2012. Private sector bank HDFC Bank unveils FY 2012 results on 18 April 2012. HCL Tech unveils Q3 March 2012 results on the same day. ACC and Ambuja Cements unveil quarterly results on 19 April 2012. Cairn India reports FY 2012 results on 20 April 2012. TCS unveils FY 2012 results on 23 April 2012. Wipro unveils Q4 results on 25 April 2012.

ICICI Bank unveils FY 2012 results on 27 April 2012. Axis Bank and Siemens announces quarterly results on the same day. Maruti Suzuki India unveils FY 2012 results on 28 April 2012. FMCG giant Hindustan Lever unveils FY 2012 results on 1 May 2012. Housing finance major HDFC announces FY 2012 results on 7 May 2012. Ranbaxy Laboratories unveils its Q1 March 2012 results on 9 May 2012.

Data on inflation for March 2012 could provide cues on the central bank's likely policy stance at the monetary policy review for 2012-13 due on 17 April 2012. The government will unveil data on inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) for March 2012 tomorrow, 13 April 2012. Inflation based on the wholesale price index (WPI) is estimated at 6.7% in March 2012, according to median estimate of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. WPI inflation stood at 6.95% (provisional) for the month of February 2012.

European stock markets were mixed in choppy trade on Thursday, as investors awaited an auction of longer-dated Italian government bonds. Key benchmark indices in France and Germany rose 0.04% and 0.48% respectively. However, UK's FTSE 100 was down 0.11%.

Asian stock markets were modestly higher on Thursday, but investors remained cautious amid geopolitical risks as North Korea's planned launch of a long-range rocket depressed the mood. Key benchmark indices in China, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore rose by between 0.08% to 1.82%. But, South Korea's Kospi fell 0.39%.

The World Bank has lowered its forecast for China's 2012 economic growth to 8.2% from 8.4% previously, it said on Thursday, reinforcing the view that China is set for its slowest annual growth in a decade. But in a sign that activity could rebound next year, the World Bank said it had raised its 2013 growth forecast for China to 8.6%, from 8.3%.

Trading in US index futures indicated that the Dow could gain 43 points at the opening bell on Thursday, 12 April 2012. US stocks bounced back on Wednesday after a five-day slide, bolstered by a strong start to the corporate-earnings season and a drop in Spanish and Italian government borrowing rates.

In economic news, the cost of goods imported into the US in March posted its largest gain in nearly a year, as petroleum prices jumped. The US federal budget deficit also came in at $198.2 billion, a touch higher than expectations. The Federal Reserve's so-called "beige book" report on economic activity said the US economy continued to expand at a modest-to-moderate pace through the end of March.